The Future of Middle East?

israel01.jpg
lebabnon01.jpg

Related;

Iran and Syria Exploit Crisis

Tom Palmer says, ‘Enough....More than Enough

Q&A: Mid-East war crimes?

Israeli and Lebanese Debate

Lebanon Key Facts

The War over Israel’s Influence

Juan Cole’s analysis;

“There are two most likely outcomes of the war. One is the collapse of the Lebanese government and the creation of another failed state on Israel's border, where desperation will breed terrorism for decades. The other is a strengthened Hezbollah, which will become the leading force in Lebanese nationalism, weakening the reformists. The maximalist option would likely turn Beirut into a poor Shiite city, reinforcing Shiite political power at the center. Destroying a few Katyusha emplacements in the south will not affect either outcome, and in both cases Hezbollah will probably be able to rebuild its arsenal.

The Israelis' current blank check will begin to be canceled by the world community, as the full scale of the destruction of Lebanon becomes apparent and humanitarian crises ensue. At some point it will be forced to cease its attack. Israel will not get the Lebanese government of which it dreams. It may get a U.N. or Lebanese buffer for a while, but it will not be effective, and the southern Lebanese clans are famed for nothing if not long memories and determined feuding.

If, as Abba Eban once said, the Palestinians never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity, it is equally true that the Israelis, with their reflexive instinct to shoot first and negotiate later, never miss an opportunity to make a bad situation worse. The Israelis have responded the same way to military threats for decades -- with overwhelming force. This is perhaps understandable, but each time they overreact they create future catastrophes for themselves. Just as their 1982 invasion of Lebanon and occupation of the south haunted them for a generation, they will be living with the blowback of their ill-considered war on hapless little Lebanon for decades to come. Tragically, the United States, as Israel's closest ally, will also have to suffer for its actions.”

Meanwhile, Civil War in Iraq?

Pages

Powered by Movable Type 5.02

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Paul published on July 20, 2006 11:24 PM.

Finding ‘needles of good design in haystacks of possibility’ was the previous entry in this blog.

Podcast of the Day- History of Democracy is the next entry in this blog.

Find recent content on the main index or look in the archives to find all content.