May 1, 2009
Dinar and Discussion May & June 2009
By DinarAdmin
Dinar and Discussion for May & June 2009
mattuk wrote:
UK plc 'risks missing out' on riches from Iraq
Patrick Hosking, Financial EditorWar-torn Iraq represents the most exciting investment opportunity since the Asian tiger economies in the 1970s, according to an adviser to the Iraqi Government, who warned that British companies and investors were in danger of missing out.
Sir Claude Hankes said that Iraq would turn out to be “the economic dynamo for the entire Gulf region” because of its large and growing population, educated middle class and industrious trading culture.
His comments came ahead of a London conference on Thursday supported by the Government and attended by Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, and Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary.
“Not since the Far East in the 1970s have I seen a market that has the economic potential that Iraq has today,” said Sir Claude, who helped to set up the first Western investment fund for Singapore and Hong Kong when he was a director of Robert Fleming, the investment bank, three decades ago.
“I remember Singapore in the 1970s, when people had nothing, not even water,” said Sir Claude, who believes that Iraq could follow a similarly spectacular economic growth path after years of underinvestment.Iraq, he said, had a reputation for industriousness and trading that made it stand out in the region, which could not be said of Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Egypt. British companies, however, seemed less alert to the potential opportunities than competitors from other countries, he said. “People will soon lose out in a major way unless they get their act together. We've been slow, that's my perception.”
Sir Claude also hit out at the Government for blocking visa applications from educated Iraqis seeking bona fide training opportunities in the UK. “This has to be addressed,” he said.
Sir Claude is advising the state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq, which he said was attempting to raise a $250 million (£170 million) fund to invest in local Iraqi businesses. TBI, which was set up soon after American tanks rolled into Iraq in 2003, reported a 41 per cent increase in net profits to $359 million on Wednesday with total assets up 64 per cent to $10 billion.
The bank began by issuing letters of credit to facilitate Iraqi trade but is pushing deeper into other areas, such as infrastructure finance, backing projects such as the new Erbil electricity plant, which keeps the lights on in Kurdistani Iraq 24 hours a day. Previously, the Kurds made do with only four hours.
Iraq boasts the world's third-largest oil reserves and is desperate for investment in virtually every sector — from transport and power infrastructure to schools, hospitals, housebuilding and tourism. “There has been no major investment in Iraq since 1990,” Hussein al-Uzri, chairman of TBI, said.
Security, however, remains a major concern for foreign investors. Although suicide bombings are down from the heights of two years ago, parts of the country remain highly dangerous. At least 41 people were killed and more than 70 wounded on Wednesday when car bombs exploded in a busy market of Baghdad's Sadr City slum. Last week 150 people died in two days of bombings amid fears that widespread sectarian violence could return.
“You think it's all chaos,” Sir Claude said. “But the fact is that if you go to Baghdad, which I have done many times, life goes on quite normally.”
Source: Times online uk-- May 1, 2009 7:08 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Heavyweights moving into Baghdad
Patrick Hosking: AnalysisGolden hopes for Iraq as a business opportunity are nothing new. A week after the American-led invasion in 2003, Paul Wolfowitz, the US Deputy Secretary of Defence at the time, told Congress that the country would be earning $50 billion to $100 billion a year in oil revenues within three years and would therefore be able to finance its own reconstruction. He was hopelessly optimistic. Six years on, oil earnings are a tiny fraction of that sum and reconstruction has barely begun.
Violence, bureaucracy, difficult regional politics, a lack of basic infrastructure and, more latterly, corruption have all stifled any sort of business renaissance.
But some British groups are managing to clinch deals. In February Mesopotamia Petroleum Co signed a £277 million joint venture deal with the Iraqi Oil Ministry. Maritime & Underwater Security Consultants has won a contract to map the sea bed off the Al-Faw peninsula. B-Plan Information, a British computer software company, is working for Rafidain, the biggest Iraqi bank.
Heavweight blue chips are interested, too. Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BP, Shell and Wood Group were among the 23 UK companies that accompanied Lord Mandelson to Baghdad this month.
Related Links
Thirty foreign companies are said to have bid for licences for important oilfields and the contracts are scheduled to be awarded in June.
Source: Times online uk-- May 1, 2009 7:11 AM ∞
steve wrote:
Government of Iraq-Ministry of Industry and Minerals, http://www.industry.gov.iq/?id=contactus_1
This site has a lot of information on the Mixed Sector Companies
This gives you the companies products, what year the company started and what the %percentage is of the public is, so I think these comps are a must have, if the State keeps a %percentage in the companies, they are going to be pushing some contracts to them no doubt about it
This is a list of Iraq banks with %percentage in other countries
Al-Ahli (national bank of Iraq) owned by Export & Finance Bank of Jordan
Bank of Baghdad is 49% owend by United Gulf Bank of Bahrain
Credit Bank of Iraq is 75% owend by National Bank of Kuwait (NBK)
Commercial Bank is owend by Al-Ahli Bank of Bahrain (through an Iraqi Holding CO)
Dae Es Salaam is owned 70% by HSBC
Economy Bank is 49% owned by A'ayan company of Kuwait
Mansour Bank is owned by National Bank of Qatar-- May 1, 2009 11:43 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Warka Bank has been down for a few days updating their system.....hope they're adding the ISX to their system!
=================================================================================================================================
Dear CustomersWe here would like to offer you our apologies because our e-banking services will be stopped temporarily till Sunday morning in order to update our core banking system.
Sorry for the inconvenience caused.
Regards
-- May 2, 2009 2:00 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The Turks are good business people. They have a winning combination of nice looking receptionists,good managers, good Turkish coffee, good prices and very good logistics for quick delivery of their goods.
===============================================================================================================
Turkey's trade in Iraq amounted to 6 billion USD in 2008http://www.kurdishglobe.net/displayArticle.jsp?id=18F90A249EF76D2674A343447D64BF37
-- May 2, 2009 2:42 PM ∞
RON wrote:
Hello dinar train.I just figured out how to post here, I was here for the beginning and things changed so being new to computers did not understand howw they worked.Glad to see some of the old dinar train gang still here.Gang still waiting for that pig roast on a beach in Hawaii,good luck to all and keep the train moving.
-- May 4, 2009 10:57 AM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Hi Steve,
It's good see you posting again. I keep thinking about venturing into the ISX but am a bit weary. From your postings it seems like everything listed makes money. Surely this can't be true? Besides the stock listings is there enough data to do research on the companies to make an informed decision?
BritishKnite.
-- May 4, 2009 3:28 PM ∞
David wrote:
Okay, everyone - who is still in? Anyone give up their investment? If so, why? If not, why not?
David
-- May 4, 2009 11:01 PM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
David. I'm still in because I can't afford not to. I got in years ago holding some physical notes and a bank account. I haven't ventured into stocks .. yet. If it doesn't pan out, then the committment won't break me, but if it does .. well! Imagine how you would feel if you'd been hearing about this for years but didn't get in, and then it hits? The sleepless nights, the should've, could've. You'd should all over yourself!
How about you? Are you in or out?
BritishKnite.
-- May 5, 2009 2:32 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
I'm still hangin' on to my dinars in the form of cash, bank account,ISX and a trust. These days, while I wait for the RV, I'm hangin' out in the dining car of our little dinar train. At least, in that car, I can get some good food and a shot of Jim Beam now and then....aint life grand!!
-- May 5, 2009 3:57 PM ∞
Twolincs wrote:
Can someone please educate me.. I have a friend in Iraq( I'm in US ) and we have some Dinar we aquired and someone( In Iraq allegidly ) recently said the Dinar was bieng replaced with a new printed currency Quote: " Iraqi Gov't. issued NEW dinar , old stuff isn't worth anything unless it's in a bank. This goes back to Feb-Mar 09 "
I have not seen anything anywhere to verify this and I am new to this site as of today and am very glad I found it ! Would appreciate any info and would anyone still consider buying more today ? I looked at the pictures of the currency at the CBI web site today and it looks the same as what I have. Regards,twolincs....hopefull investor.-- May 7, 2009 12:56 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
twolincs....
Welcome to the forum! Your dinar matches the CBI notes so it's current and legal anywhere in the world. When we get a possible RV (revaluation) of the dinar, your dinars in an Iraqi bank will be converted automatically. Any dinar being held in the US can be, we assume, converted at a US bank such as Chase.
Hope this helps.....
-- May 7, 2009 1:34 PM ∞
Twolincs wrote:
Tsalagi, thank you very much for putting my mind at ease. I was sure hopeing I didn't miss something....Whew!!!! Again I am very glad I found this site, I havent been paying much attention to the news over there but with current events happening faster that the speed of sound,thought I'd better start investigating and have found a wealth of information here. Thanks Again !! Regards, Twolincs
-- May 7, 2009 7:15 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Heritage confident of Iraqi exportsPublished: May 7, 2009 at 1:52
ERBIL, Iraq, May 7 (UPI) -- Exports from an oil field in the Kurdish region of Iraq may proceed despite contract disputes between the regional government and Baghdad, executives say.
Heritage Oil said it has discovered oil at the Miran field in Sulaimaniya province, with expected yields passing 4 billion barrels of oil.
Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government oil minister, called the find "excellent news, and we look forward to the Miran field exporting oil later this year," the Financial Times reports.
Heritage said it expects Miran to produce additional oil in associated structures.
Oil deals with the KRG are a point of contention with the Iraqi central government in Baghdad, which views unilateral Kurdish oil deals as a violation of the Iraqi Constitution.
Those disputes have delayed several projects in the Kurdish regions, though Paul Atherton, chief financial officer at Heritage, said he thinks progress in talks between both governments will bring exports online soon.
"We are confident we will be able to export oil," he said.
-- May 8, 2009 12:44 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraq Kurds say to start Tawke crude exports June 1
Fri May 8, 2009 2:09pm BST
BAGHDAD, May 8 (Reuters) - Oil exports from the Tawke field in Iraq's Kurdish north will begin on June 1, the largely autonomous region said on Friday, suggesting the start of official foreign sales from the promising Kurdish fields.Exports will begin at an initial rate of 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Kurdistan Regional Government said.
Its natural resources minister, Ashti Hawrami, said in a statement that 40,000 bpd will be sent in June by truck from a second field, Taq Taq, ultimately going through an Iraq-Turkey export pipeline.
But a spokesman of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad denied there had been any deal to allow Kurdish oil exports via a national pipeline. The ministry has long denied permission for this. "So far no deal has been concluded between the two parties," spokesman Asim Jihad told Reuters.
Shares in DNO International (DNO.OL), the Oslo listed company that is developing the Tawke field, surged on news of the export plans and they were up more than 15 percent by 1256 GMT.
DNO Chief Financial Officer Haakon Sandborg pointed to the Kurdish statement as the reason behind the jump. [nL8999870]
The tangle over contracts and the oil pipeline are part of a larger dispute between the Shi'ite Arab-led government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Kurds, one that has blocked passage of national oil and gas legislation.
IRAQ STATE MARKETING BODY
Hawrami said, however, that Iraq's state marketing body would handle the oil sales.
"The exported crude oil from both fields will be marketed by [the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Organisation] and the revenue will be deposited to the federal Iraq account for the benefit of all Iraqi people," Hawrami said.
Baghdad's position on the pipeline has meant that oil from Kurdistan, which has had a large degree of autonomy under international protection since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, has gone only to supply a small Kurdish market, with small amounts being smuggled abroad.
Kurdistan has also struck deals with firms including Addax Petroleum (AXC.TO) and Turkey's General Enerji.
Oil contracts signed by the Kurdish government have been a thorn in relations between Arbil, the Kurdish capital, and the central government in Baghdad. The Oil Ministry deems those contracts to be illegal.
Hawrami says that members of the Kurdish minority only want their fair share of Iraq's oil wealth.
Growing Kurd-Arab tensions have raised doubts about whether the divide over energy resources could feed renewed conflict even as overall violence in Iraq subsides after more than six years of war.
Arabs reject Kurdish ambitions to absorb the oil-rich region of Kirkuk, home to Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen, into Kurdistan.
Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves, but it desperately needs investment to boost production and repair infrastructure damage caused by decades of sanctions, war and neglect.
Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani is now seeking long-term development contracts with the world's largest oil firms. Shahristani hopes those contracts will help Iraq at least double daily output from around 2.4 million bpd now.
British oil explorer Heritage Oil (HOIL.L) recently announced it had found up to 4.2 billion barrels of oil in Kurdistan, adding to pressure to unblock the Kurdish-Arab impasse.
Iraq, which relies on oil imports for more than 95 percent of its state revenues, is facing a budget crisis after the collapse of oil prices from their all-time high last summer.
Heritage said this week it hopes to be producing 10,000 to 15,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of the year, using trucks to move the crude to a pipeline in Kirkuk for export.
-- May 8, 2009 9:24 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Just checked the Warka Bank site and found this news item that was posted today...good news!! It sure perked up my day. Com'on RV!!
==========================================================================================================================================
Dear Warka Investor,
It gives me great pleasure to inform you with our growing success we have increased our share capital to IQD 75 billion and will be issuing 47.058% free shares to our highly distinguished investors whom have all contributed to our success further developing our bank enhancing our operations.It is a true delight to have such esteemed investors being part of the largest private financial enterprise in the country.
Best regards,
-- May 8, 2009 12:27 PM ∞
steve wrote:
Britishkite,Yea I bought into the ISX about 18 months ago when every stock was well low, some others that got into it two or three years ago got burned as the share prices went down a lot, most of these guys are still in the red with their shares, and some are just about where they were when they started
If you go onto the ISX home page then bulletins & reports, go for old ones back a few years to see what was what then, and to maybe get an Idea of what may be the shares to go for, but as most of them are still very cheap I dont think you can go far wrong with buying up any companies shares that are under three dinars a go, your only down side is the new 200,000 share min buy in on any comp, I did Email MR I. at Warka to ask if they was any way they could take smaller orders then buy when there was enough, but he said they were busy as is, and he thinks the ISX will up the min buy in soon, so best get your best thinking trousers on and get busy
As we have the last tradeing day to make a pic list from, its sods law that when you get an Email from Warka telling you when your list will be done, most of the comps you want are not playing that day, so thats when on my list I was adding on 6 to 10 other comps just so I was picking up some and that is how I ended up with 19 Banks, and 23 comps in, Services sector, Hotel sector, Industry sector, Investment sector and Agriculture, or, Transport, Real Estate,Hotel, Food, Soft drinks, Paint, Chemical Products, Veterinary vaccines, Pharmaceuticals, Metal, Carton manufactures, Constrution materials, Electronic industries, Rog I forgot I had these and only 800,000 shares so you can see how easy it was to lose them
So yea everything I have has gone up, some by not a lot but then its all up, as is the 47.5% free shares in Warka Bank, so thats 941,000 free shares at 2.4 = 2,258,400 IQD so its not been a bad day has it
So I think you and anyone who has not got into the Iraqi bank and ISX are going to lose out big time
There are people on this site that are sat on a huge pile of the 25,000 dinar notes, that is doing naff all when it could be earning good interest in a Iraqi bank
I have cash dinars nice, dinars in the Iraqi bank, and dinars in the ISX, I think that is about all you can do with them, Im keeping a wedge in the dinar account as Im sure there is going to be some very good comps to have that are not yet on the ISX
Fill yer boots guys, Steve.
-- May 8, 2009 7:16 PM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Hey gang, most of the originals are gone now. The forum has changed in tone in a major way. I must say it's not nearly as entertaining as it once was. I personally don't give a hoot about the specifics of daily buisness activities in Iraq. Yeah sure I know it might mean a little sompin' sompin', but really now, come on, who has time for that crap. I've been here 4 years now I think, and thats long enough to realize that all this meant nothing, except the people I got to know. Lance, Sara, Corol, Roger, Timbitts, Panhandler, and many more. The fights, the stories, the rumors, the RV prdictions, the religious disputes and discussions, the science lessons, those were the things worth reading. You guys who are left finally got what you wanted, and it sucks in my opinion, but not just on your own accord. Those things faded with our hope that the dinar was our ticket to overnight wealth. The reality is the dinar wasn't that at all. It turned into the unlikely chance most economist said it was. They were right! Sure we know it's still possible that the dinar will gain value. It has gained some, but for most, not as much as the dealer fees we paid when we bought our dinars. Without the colorfull commentaries, the personalities, and the mix of discussion that came from that, this site is dead. People said over and over "this is a dinar discussion", "I come here for dinar info not commentary". Like I said before, what does it do for you? The only info we really need to know is when it's time to cash in for USD's. I think of all the work Rob N. has put into the research for this site, no offense but it was a waste of time Rob. You would have been better off taking the kids fishing with that time. Now Mattuk has taken over much of that recently. Get real Mattuk and Tsalagi, who gives a crap about that stuff? It's like reading the Wallstreet Jurnal. I think it should be forbidden to paste onto this blog, that would take real good care of this bullshit. If it's news worth writing, then by all mean share it, but if I wanted to read that crap I would read the ste you cut it from. Get a life people.
-- May 9, 2009 1:18 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Valerio,
I think I know what you mean. You miss the community of people who have written on this blog for some time. It takes a lot of committment, time and energy to research and write to this blog all the time. I can assure you that I still check this blog on a regular basis...however, as of late, I have not found anything that would be interest to this site on the topic.
Valerio, don't lose heart. The people you are talking about are still around. I am sure of it. Sometimes, the topic of the RV moves like a snail or maybe not at all. I suspect, when something happens, the old timers will pop in again and let everyone know. Pray for Roger and others that are now in Iraq. I think everyone who has written are still planning a party in the Keys.
Keep the faith.
Laura Parker
-- May 9, 2009 2:08 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Mattuk, Tsalagi and others,
Don't take Valerio's comments to heart. He's just frustrated that some of the old names he's use to seeing haven't been writing as of late. I suspect, that maybe many of them are getting busy with their families and possibly doing what Valerio suggested to Rob N. to go fishing and spending more time with their families. It takes a lot of energy to keep writing to this blog. I'm sure that many of them will return in time.
In the meantime, others will need to fill in on the dinar train. Tsalagi, you like Roger have a unique outlook on Iraq as you too are in Iraq. Keep sharing your insights into what is happening in Iraq. Mattuk, your contributions are also appreciated. The news from Iraq is very slow and at times can seem unentertaining/boring. I think this is what Valerio is trying to say. And, Valerio, are you giving up on the dinar? Or, is it just frustration are feeling like you have lost all the friends you have had on this site?. I suspect, it is the later.
Again, I encourage you to hang in there as the old timers on this site (I believe) have not gone far.
Laura Parker
-- May 9, 2009 2:29 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Laura,
I'm not fustrated that most of the old timers are gone. I'm more fustrated that the writers are gone, that the opinions are gone, the debates are gone, the speculation, interpetation and predictions, all those things are pretty much gone. Now what we have is something like the US congressional channel, it can be interesting for a moment when there is a meaningful topic, but the rest is just filler, and about as exciting as paying the bills.
I appreciate, as you do, the insight of Tsalagi by his presence in Iraq. Yes that is good info, and a true indicator of how things are going, and interesting too. Info on how to get an AWARKA acct, and the ISX, yeah thats good stuff, anyone can appreciate meaningful info. When the posters put their fingers to the keys it's all good. It's like fresh air when Roger checks in.
I haven't given up hope that the dinar will someday make a significant gain. That would still be nice. I'm not going to get out, no no no. That would be like burning my lotto ticket before the drawing.-- May 9, 2009 3:56 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Valerio…..
I, like you, would appreciate some diversity on this forum. I found Truck & Barter several years ago and liked the Iraq dinar forum because it gave me my daily fix on the dinar and at the same time had a few other conversations going. It was like being at a family reunion and going from one group to another getting your two bits into the conversation.
However, I was raised in the Bible belt land of hard shelled Baptists and learned at an early age you didn’t discuss religion or politics at the family reunion. It was a known fact that you kept these conversations in their own circle of conversation because they tended to get very heated, especially if your intent was to “save” someone. I once saw my father punch his brother in the mouth because he told my father he was going to hell because we went to a different church. I must have learned that lesson well because years later a guy I didn’t know showed up at my house one evening and spoke loudly in my face, “you’ve sinned and come short of the glory of God…..you’re going to burn in hell”. I popped him in the mouth, told him I had talked to God in the morning and hell wasn’t mentioned, then led him to the end of my driveway. The guy simply didn’t realize that the relationship between an individual and God is very personal and everybody should respect that right. I know for a fact he didn’t add me to his list of “saved sinners”. Over the years I’ve learned to appreciate people who can discuss politics and religion without being dogmatic and offending the beliefs of other people in their circle of discussion.
I’ve worked most of my life as a Project Manager and realized long ago that “bitching” about something you would like to change won’t get the job done….you simply have to “just do it”!
So, the podium is open to you and others, to post any thoughts on any subject. I believe we can improve the content of the forum if everybody keeps an open mind and positive attitude.
-- May 9, 2009 2:39 PM ∞
Carole wrote:
Hello
For some reason I thought after many months to pop in and see if anybody had some significant news about the Dinar, and read the message about the old gang! :) Don't know where every one else is but I have been somewhere between an homicidal and suicidal state ! This Obama, anti-American, who has committed multiple acts of treason, fraud and who has thumbed his nose at the Constitution time and time again has changed the exterior face of the US. BUT THERE ARE MANY OF US GOOD OLE AMERICANS THAT ARE BEHIND THE SCENES, UNDERGROUND AND BUILDING OUR DEFENSE AGAINST THE TYRANNY PF THIS ADMINISTRATION.
IT TAKES ALOT OF TIME, COMMITMENT AND,YES, MONEY. But I can't think of a better place to spend it. Soooo, my T&B time almost doesn't exist anymore. But it is ice to see some of the old ones still well and here.I hear briefly from Sara in e-mails. I think she is okay. I can assure you she spends alot of her time on her knees praying or this country.
If you want to stay on solid ground....follow Glen Beck. There are many others but he is the most accessible. If you wat to support legitimate efforts to save this nation , follow Jay Sekulow ACLJ.
I am done with the Republican Party. At best they are masquerading as such behind the masks of Libertarians. There are 3 good reasons tye election was essentially handed to Obama. #1 GOP gave up the strong right base by giving us Mc Cain, as well as those in office who have sold out to true conservatism, for something we now call a moderate. #2. Those evangelicals who millions follow and belong to some organization called The Arlington Group turned on Huckabee.....who could have and would have brought out the millions who were just waiting for a "HARD CORE" CONSERVATIVE to be supported. That is why Sara got such an overwhelming response as did Joe the plummer!
I realize that we all have the Dinar in common, BUT more than that ow we must do all we can to save this country. We must FIGHT BACK, AND TALK LOUD AND STRONG AS NEVER BEFORE IN OUR LIFETIME OR HISTORY. To shy away from the fight we are in is to concede to a life from which most won't survive.
The fools that said "don't ever discuss religion or politics" is digging ditches in the old Soviet Union or selling pencils in Cuba!
Love ya.
Carole
-- May 10, 2009 2:45 AM ∞
steve wrote:
Hi Guys,
Kuwait and Saudi Arabie are poised to cancel 20 billion dollars owend by Iraq and to end the file of compensation
Well that will be one more thing out of the way
Open society institute (OSI) chairman George Soros launched Iraq Revenue Watch (IRW) in May 2003
I knew that your friend and mine George Soros was in there somewhere
Stay lucky guys, Steve.
-- May 10, 2009 2:52 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Carole.....
Most people from my neck of the woods, Texas and Oklahoma, share your thoughts about Obama and his Chicago style of Government. He even had the audicity to make fun of the recent tea parties across the nation. We certainly need another political party that will downsize the Government and spend more time with "We The People". As a last resort, to protect ourselves against tyranny and despotic leaders, our founding fathers gave us the right to keep and bear arms. Facts are clear that gun and ammunition sales are at a record level in our nation. I believe we can get our country back via the ballot box but still have deep concerns that Obama will not realize how concerned the citizens are and will continue to make the same mistakes.
If we all stay in "kick ass" mode we will get leaders that do as we say. Remember...they work for us! Join the next tea party!
-- May 10, 2009 11:46 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Recently, Warka Bank, had taken their system down for up-grades. I logged on today, to make some minor changes to my accounts, and found they no longer offer the "E-Remittance" feature. This feature allowed the customer to make money transfers from Warka to an external bank of their choice. The information I had in their system regarding my external Bank choices was still in their system with no changes. I'm assuming they're still working on their system to bring it up to international standards and regulations. The other part of my brain tells me they're getting ready for an RV of the Dinar and numerous transfers of money. Then again, that's the part of my brain I dream in!
-- May 11, 2009 11:38 AM ∞
cloaked wrote:
Tsalagi. Warka informed me that they are updating the E-Remittance feature soon as they are just doing more updates. I believe to add more security features.
-- May 12, 2009 8:05 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
cloaked....
Thanks for the info. regarding Warka. They continue to improve their on-line services and truly are one of the best private banks in the area.
-- May 12, 2009 10:25 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Hello All,
I generally check this site from time to time though I am not posting much anymore. Although Dinar has not progressed as we would have liked; I still believe the Dinar still has the potential to produce a good profit.
Long ago in one of my discussions with Carol we talked of the flavor of this site. In those days a variety of topics were posted and those I wanted to read and participated in I did so those I did not I skipped.
This site has become static as has the Dinar itself. Iraq itself has become mired in sectarian and ethnic strife marked by an infantile governnment incapable of providing basic services for its people. A government that has miserably failed at national reconcilation. A government with no clear direction regarding an attainable and sustainable economic or monetary policy for its people.
In some sense I think we as investors or speculators have been asking the wrong questions. These wrong questions are "when will the currency rv" or when will the currency lop"?
I am guilty of asking these questions myself.The journey of a nation state is a long one and although I am critical of Al-Malaki and the GoI the potential is there for a great nation to rise from the ashes of war. This is why I still believe that the dinar will deliever a proft. What form this profit takes is anyone's guess.
Laura, I would like to say it is good to see you post. Please convey my well wishes to Sara and tell her I would like to see her post.
Carol, if you are lurking about please pop in and say hello. Although we got off on the wrong foot in the past I miss your wit and your ability to speak your mind.
To those of you that continue to post thanks for keeping it going; I plan to check in more often than in the past.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 12, 2009 10:55 AM ∞
Franko wrote:
Rob,
Always good to read your posts and update this site with your view of the matter. There could not be a better time for this currency to adjust for hardship has hit me all too well. God bless us all and this nation as well. Thank you for your contribution.
Franko
-- May 12, 2009 12:03 PM ∞
tim bitts wrote:
Hi, Just checking in...
Hope everyone is well.
A few comments:
When the American Army leaves Iraq, it's Showtime....then the Iraqis put up, or shut up.....no more excuses, no one to blame. Then, they can fight to the death, or get rich. It really is their choice. At that point, Iraq should settle pretty quick. Iraq will then either revert to a brutal dictatorship, within a year, or work out their disagreements and live in peace. It's their choice. In every Arab country, the government eventually brings order. Every time. Corrupt, incompetant government, but government nontheless,.....enough order to pump oil. Iraq will be no exception. The only question is, will order be imposed brutally, or through cooperation? That choice is the Iraqis to make, not America. If they chose to kill each other, we must let them.
After the killing stops, and when there is order, and the American Army is out, there will be no excuse not to RV. Right now, any hydro carbon law is suspect, because no one would trust it, because it would seem like it was written under a gun, of the American occupation. Once the American Army leaves, the hydrocarbon law will be passed. The Iraqi government will be free to impose order on the country, without being accused of being American stooges and puppets. Then, the really heavy hand comes out. Then, the independent Kurdistan Army will have to decide if it wants to fight the Shiite Army, in a bloody civil war. Then, the Iraqis will decide if it is to be peace, or civil war. Either way, America wins. Order will be imposed. The oil will flow. The RV will follow, as day follows night. Whoever wins, order will be restored. Then, the gold rush is on. The oil business will then develop very, very fast, and the RV will happen very quickly.
So, don't give up. Dinar holders will all be rich.
Like a pilot light on a gas stove, this site may not burn bright, but the light will never go out. There are people on this site who will NEVER give up. You know who you are. People will go on with their lives, but check back on this site, from time to time,.....and some day, a great flame will burst, on RV day.
Thank you to the faithful people who keep the pilot light going.
God bless you.
A big hello to all the old regulars, like Rob N, Sara, Carole, Roger, Laura, and anyone who's name I can't think of right now.
I remember you all.
I am doing other things, obviously, but will check in to this site from time to time, for as long as it takes.
I suspect others will do the same.
Take care,
God bless,
Tim Bitts
-- May 13, 2009 12:01 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
There is much more to be concerned with right now than the status of the dinar investment. Right now the USA is going down the tubes. Our people have elected "the one" who will lead us down. Please start paying as much attention to whats going on right under our noses as you do about whats going on in Iraq. We could be a 3rd world country in no time at all. Does anyone think we can really borrow 50% of what we're spending, kill millions in the wombs of our women, except pervertion in our society, allow righteousness to be scoffed at like a detestible thing, and get away with it without judgement? The great consumer of all the worlds goods will no longer have the money to buy, and the kings of the earth will certainly mourn. America must be destroyed in order for the new world order to come, and my friends they are getting it done, and we let them do it. Be watching.
-- May 13, 2009 6:12 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
In my career, I’ve been lucky enough to live and work in the US, SE Asia, Europe and the Middle East. I’ve seen the good, bad and ugly styles of government from different styles of democracy to despotic kings.
Our founding fathers gave us a style of government that could protect itself from bad government by allowing the many rights we have under the constitution and we are still a work in progress. Obama has ushered in a strong central government style of politics that sends up alarm bells around the country. Our constitution calls for a small central government and strong powers retained by “we the people” within the various states.
Normally a government that’s moving in the wrong direction is corrected via the ballot box. But it seems, when we replace one party with another, things continue to go bad. I think we have such a large group of liars, crooks and queers in our elected officials we need to take another course of action.If the ballot box doesn’t remove these characters then we need to use that same ballot box to starve them away from the public trough. We need to send our tax dollars to the States and only allow the central government enough money, with strong watchdogs, to run the areas of common interest such as defense, etc.
Politicians, at the state level are just as crooked as those in Washington but at least we would be close enough to ride them out of town on a rail if necessary.
-- May 13, 2009 3:29 PM ∞
runescape gold wrote:
Hi, nice post. I have been wondering about this topic,so thanks for sharing. I will certainly be subscribing to your blog.
-- May 14, 2009 3:00 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Valerio,
I do not think that other members of this blog are unconcerned about what is happening in the United States of America. We all can see it. It will take time for other americans to see it too and band together to find a solution to the problem. I think that entry to the next to last entry had it right. States rights to repeal the 16 amendment to the constituion would do it. It would send all tax money to the state government and then the states can decide what amount to send to the central government for national defense.
All,
I continue to appreciate all of you who post and continue the dinar train.
Rob N.,
I have not heard from Sara lately. Maybe, she will read the blog and post. I certainly hope so.
TimBitts and Carole,
It's nice to hear from you two. Don't be strangers. Let us know what you are up to from time to time.
Panhandler,
I know from last report, you moved back with your sons in Oregon after medical treatment in Florida. Drop us a note and let us know how you are.
Roger,
Keep us informed about your whereabouts in Iraq and how you are doing.
Laura Parker
-- May 16, 2009 1:39 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Parliament will not ratify Iraqi-Turkish Agreement, decrees to include article securing Iraq's water share
The parliament voted on a resolution mandating non-signing of the Iraqi-Turkish Agreement as it now stands and the inclusion in it of an article which secures Iraq's share of the waters of both the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.-- May 17, 2009 7:30 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Musawi calls for dismissing Oil Minister 16/05/2009 12:36:00
Baghdad (NINA) –Member of the Finance Committee in Parliament MP Shatha al-Musawi called to dismiss Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani due to his "major role in deteriorated oil production and deteriorated Iraqi economy."
Thanks,Rob N.
-- May 17, 2009 7:32 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Musawi calls for dismissing Oil Minister 16/05/2009 12:36:00
Baghdad (NINA) –Member of the Finance Committee in Parliament MP Shatha al-Musawi called to dismiss Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani due to his "major role in deteriorated oil production and deteriorated Iraqi economy."
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 17, 2009 7:34 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
My work in the Middle East allowed me to see and observe Iraq before and during both gulf wars. I’ve always known the country was in good shape due to the natural resources they had. The people are also hard working and industrious. They’ve suffered due to some bad leadership in their government but I have no doubt they will overcome that obstacle.So, when the new Iraqi Dinar started showing up in the markets, I started buying and accumulating them at a steady pace. I knew then, and I know now, the Dinar will eventually appreciate to a good value. My position is a starting value of at least 28 US Cents in order to be worth a little more than the Saudi Riyal. Right now a Saudi Riyal is worth .27USD and the Iraqis will do a small one-upmanship on their Sunni neighbors to the South. I believe the initial RV will be pegged to a small basket of currencies and the Central Bank of Iraq will attempt to keep it to a slow, steady growth on the FOREX market.
The first merchant I bought Dinar from was a very likeable and honest man. Every day he traveled from Baghdad to the boonies, where the Americans stayed, and sold dinar, fake Rolex watches, etc. so he could take care of his family. He never kept records or gave us a receipt for the dinars we purchased because he feared the terrorists would kill him if they found out he was doing business with Americans. Ironically they killed him one day just to get his money and goods he had with him. We sent a collection of money to his family, via his brother. It was a sad day for everyone.
Which reminds me…..Why is Nancy Pelosi still trying to find a home on US soil for the terrorists? This woman is dangerous to our country! I hope the rumor is true that Obama is going to throw her under the bus.
-- May 18, 2009 12:00 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
SNAP ANALYSIS-Iraqi Kurdistan to export gas to Europe, TurkeyReuters, Sunday May 17 2009 By Simon WebbDUBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - A consortium of companies from the United Arab Emirates and Europe plan to export enough gas from the Kurdish region of northern Iraq to supply the first phase of the Nabucco pipeline to Europe.
The exports would help Europe in its quest to diversify energy supplies away from Russia. Following are some of the potential consequences of the plan:
EUROPE, RUSSIA AND ENERGY SECURITY
* Iraqi Kurdistan gas would give Europe a source from Iraq through Turkey, away from Russia and its immediate sphere of influence. Europe relies on Russia for a quarter of its natural gas supplies. A cut-off in Russian supplies to Europe last winter due to a dispute with Ukraine left thousands without heating and added urgency to Europe's search for more sources.
* Russia opposes the Nabucco pipeline plan and is developing the rival South Stream project. It signed deals with partners on Friday to accelerate the scheme. Moscow has rebuked the United States and former Soviet satellite nations for backing the rival Nabucco plan.
* Russia is Turkey's largest trade partner. Turkey is Russia's third-largest gas consumer. A 26-year gas supply deal between the two expires in 2012 and both agreed to work on extending the deal on Saturday.
TURKEY, EUROPE AND IRAQ'S KURDISTAN REGION
* Turkey would gain bargaining power in its quest to become a member of the European Union as a transit country and facilitator of gas exports from Iraq. Due to its geographical position straddling the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe, Turkey sees its potential for being a strategic energy partner as one of its strongest arguments for accession to Europe.
* The pipeline would increase interdependence between the Iraqi Kurdistan region and Turkey. This may have implications for the 25-year Kurdish separatist conflict in the largely Kurdish area of southeastern Turkey, long a source of regional instability and a hindrance to Ankara's EU membership quest.
* As the transit country for gas supplies to Europe, Turkey would also gain leverage over Iraq's Kurdistan region.
* Gas exports from the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq to the Turkish market would make Turkey dependent on energy supplied by the Iraqi Kurds.
* Exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region could help meet Turkey's gas needs and remove a potential obstacle to Nabucco. Around 1 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) could go to the Turkish market from the consortium project in Kurdistan. That is more than the 15 percent of Nabucco's 3 billion cfd that Turkey wanted for its own market.
IRAQ'S KURDISTAN REGION, NABUCCO
* Gas exports would thrust the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq onto the international energy supply stage. The region plans to make its first foray into the world energy market with exports of crude through Iraq's northern oil export pipeline to Turkey in June.
* The project could pave the way to future, larger exports from northern Iraq to Europe, Turkey and other nearby states with gas needs.
* The region's oil and gas reserves were little explored under Saddam Hussein and are potentially larger than estimated. The UAE's Crescent Petroleum is confident it can pump over 3 billion cfd for many years. Around half of that would be available for the Nabucco project, enough to fill the first phase of the pipeline.
BAGHDAD, OIL FIRMS
* Baghdad's oil ministry declined to comment on the Kurdistan gas plan on Sunday. Iraq's oil ministry has clashed repeatedly with the Kurdish Regional Government over control of the country's oil and gas reserves and could oppose the deal, which has no federal approval. The oil ministry has criticised oil and gas contracts the KRG has signed with international oil companies, calling them illegal. The disagreement goes to the heart of political differences in Iraq over central versus regional control over the world's third largest oil reserves.
* Baghdad has blacklisted firms that have signed deals with the KRG. This has kept the world's biggest energy firms away from the Kurdistan region but left opportunities for those less concerned about Baghdad's opprobrium.
IRAN
* Iran has long expressed its desire to become a major player in the world gas export market and has said it wanted to be a supplier to the Nabucco project. The pipeline would still need more gas, so Iran could join the Kurdistan region in the future.
* But European buyers do not see Iran as a reliable potential source of gas. European companies have halted investment plans there due to political pressure and sanctions from the United States and the United Nations over Iran's nuclear programme. (Reporting by Simon Webb; Editing by Thomas Atkins and Alex Richardson) Printable version larger | smaller Business-- May 18, 2009 1:20 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Food for thought......"The astronomer Philip Plait has stated very clearly that the Mayan calendar does not end in 2012 at all, that it is like the odometer on your car, as each section of the odometer reaches 9 and then clicks over to 0, the next number to it starts a new cycle, so that when all the numbers again reach 0 all the way across the odometer - the last number will change from 1 to 2 and the new cycle starts all over again".
-- May 20, 2009 12:53 AM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
Long time no see, being busy doing long hours in Iraq.
I read through the blog, and found that there are some oldtimers that have popped in again, Hi to you all.
Me, I am very remote from any politics, or Dinar info, as the job I have is on a military base, and we are in all essence doing military jobs.(Except the pulling of the trigger, part)
The Iraq attitude is a mixture of culture, clan, society, religion and Islamic faction belonging ( Shiite , Sunni).
The most irritating for a westerner is the lack of belonging, an Iraqi man has.
I think we all, as one, naively thought that after the invasion they would stand up and say -"Hurrah, we are free" and then build up the society again.
That's what we westerners would do, and we had no clue what we had opened up.
When passing by ( totally ineffective) checkpoints manned by the former insurgents, "Son of Iraq" they put on a very visible display, or a theater act pointing to thir mouth, wanting water, and food.
So drivers toss out an MRE ( Meals Ready to Eat) or a waterbottle. Well if there is two Iraqis there, and you toss out two MRE's, and one manage to pick up both of them, he will not share.
The one that wasn't quick enough will just resign ad accept the fact that he will not eat today.
Throw a bunch of lightsticks (chemsticks, used to mark the way in the dark) to kids, and if one kid was very quick, he will proudly display four or five sticks, but he will not share them with other kids.
An Iraqi man loudly display his opinion in any matter, but he will never maneuver himself into a position where he actually has to take a decision.
By culture religion and clanlife, they have evolved into small small islands, where they don't belong to Iraq, but are a member of a family (clan) religion or sect, and it was not made by their own decision, but by birth, and therefore it was fate.
The way Islam is displayed here, it is everywhere, it is on loudspeakers five times a day from the minaretes. The predominant view is that Allah have everything written down in a book, all past and future happenings, so any decision is pretty meaningless, as it is already decided by Allah how things will work out.
Besides, if Allah already have decided about it, it can be dangerous to go about and make any contrary decisions.
I saw a pretty good example of this the other day. We were hauling those ugly concrete slabs that are erected all over Baghdad and Iraq as barriers, and came to an off loading point.
The crane company that was to off load it was an Iraqi company.
Ok, here is a group of people, all assocciated with the crane, the company owner, ( or the company representative), the crane driver, the crane operator, and a couple of crane handlers.
They were all standing and discussing how to do the job, it was a very heated debate, with all of them in a group, waiving their hands in the face of each other, and loudly giving all their opinions about how this should be done.
Ok we are waiting a little bit, (the convoy, and the military) for them to sort this out, but the discussion was endless.
We have time schedules to meet, and this could not continue to go on forever, so one military commander, and a convoy commander walked over, and basically told them to shut up, ...do this , this and this....ok start now.
All in the group immediately went to work. Happily aware that "The Americans" had made the decision. Something that they themselves will have a very hard time doing.
Ad to this scenario that a very high percentage of the population can not read or write.
A population that is illiterate is very very easily controlled. They have to be told what to do, and as long as the powers that are holding the Iraqi society , the Mullahs and the Clanchief (the Sheik), they have to carefully consider what they are telling their followers, as not to lose their power.
Women in Baghdad, can dress like a women, and follow fashion, as they do, but outside Baghdad, you see them with a black bag over their head.
Kids frequently raid trucks waiting to get in to bases, they rip up any boxes, and steal chains, straps, or whatever is in the boxes. They know that the drivers can not and will not get out, and in the trafficjam the military gun trucks are pretty inefficient to stop them.
In a western society, kids would not get away with that for long, there would be a Sheriff knocking on someones door, or a School Principal that would call in the offender, but here kids run around in packs unsupervised.
The best that could happen if you're lucky, is that a person from the "Son of Iraq" check point will MAAAYYYBE walk away from his check point no more than 30 yards, and shine a flashlight "to check out what's going on" ....but he will never actually do police work, he is far to busy eating MRE's.
His job is to FILL the uniform, the conceptual understading that this is his own land, and he is responsible for his land, is not in his world of thinking.
So if you wonder why anything goes so slow in this country, well their competence that once was here have fled to other countries, and the only competence they now can hope to have, has to be imported from companies from outside Iraq, and they will not come in as long as the Iraqis are running around in pyamas shooting each other, or planting bombs.
The shooting and planting of bombs have decreased very much. I still get military intelligence that they have tried this or that, and that there have been a bomb here or there, but it is getting fewer and fewer inbetween. Lately though, it has picked up a bit, but that is mostly due to the summer weather, they don't like to have war in wintertime.
When I came here last summer, I came at the very tail end of the "official" insurgency, and in my job I saw a lot of action, but have personally not seen anything for a very long time now.
I can see small small differences in the society for the better, but they have still a very very long way to go before this place can be called, at least, in a halfway decent shape.
Eventually it will turn around, and once that snowball gains more and more momentum it will be a boom.
It has definitely started to roll, I can say that, but are a bit disappointed with the overall slow progress in most any area here in Iraq.
One of the biggest drawbacks in the development of this country, is our own idea of how we want to present ourselves.
Basically we have in this moment of time, a presence of around 140.000 troops, and about twice the population in support personell.
Ok the first thing we did was to build for ourself forts and bases all along the country. Some with a population over 20.000 people.
The city (cities) we build up are all behind a wire, it has a big concrete barrier high enough that you can not see over it from the outside. We have guard towers, and Constantine ( barb) wire all around it. In order to get in or out, you have to have a military convoy, unless you fly in with helio or airplane.
That is all nice and ducky for a pure military operation, but our own influence is very limited, the only thing the Iraqis see, is military vehicles, neatly organized convoys, airplanes, helicopters, and a lot of flares shot out by us from either helios, guntrucks or artillery ( I have artillery shooting not too far from my sleeping quarters, they shoot at any time, and they are loud)
You will with an operation like this do a perfect military set up, but the countrys, electrical system sewer system, water system, etc, will not benefit anything.
Very few in selected posts are mingling with the Iraqis, but the vast vast majority of personell going to Iraq, will have very little or no contact with an Iraqi person. They will all sit in modern cities build up by contractors, on the bases, where they are enjoying food, movies, computers, gym,s and shopping sprees in the on base shopping centers, connected by a fully developed bus system with regular scedules.
For the Iraqis, we are just a massive amount of machines driving or flying around.
There is no human face to it.
The military part is something that we can do to perfection, but the missing link here is the human development resource.
For heavens sake, we had the invasion as far back as in 2003, and still, no one have taken any significant step in developing this country in a way that will make any significant difference for the Iraqis.
Knowing that Iraqis, by culture, religion and past political indoctrination ( you better not say or do anything that will go against Saddams wishes),will not stick out their neck themselves in order to make anything happen, the Iraqis need a boost, need a kick in the butt, and need a helping hand in getting the snowball rolling.
All these contracts I am reading about, is the slow way to go, but I assume that this is the way it has to go.
I strongly think that we gave back the coutry to the Iraqis far far too quick.
And I also strongly believe that if we would have actually done a "second invasion" in resources allocated for really really building up this country as to infrastructure, while we had it in our hands, we would have had a far far different and much better situation right now.
I sincerely hope that we have learned a very strong lesson this time, when we seem to build up the forces in Afghanistan.
We can not again just build forts for ourselves, drive around or fly around war machines, and when we are done for the day go back to our own privately built up "city" and watch a movie while eating a steak, having no intention to build up Afghanistans infra structure.
However I have a feeling that we will still have a problem with our memory chip capacity.
Gotta go, will be on convoy tomorrow,
See ya all
Roger-- May 20, 2009 11:42 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
Thank you for the insightful post. This further confirms my leanings that an investment in the Iraqi Dinar is a long term proposition.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 21, 2009 10:17 AM ∞
Valerio wrote:
Very nice peace Roger.,
Thank you.-- May 22, 2009 1:30 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Roger....
Good comments....spoken like a true Western expat. It truly is sad that their local mullah can lead them around like a bunch of sheep. The GOI will only improve when they finally figure out how to split the golden goose of oil and they fill their greedy little hands.
-- May 22, 2009 11:06 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
I just checked my account at Warka bank and noted that the "E-Remittance" feature was active again after being down for up-dating. The procedure appeared the same so the changes must have been for security to their core banking system.I did a test run on this feature about a year ago and it worked just great. It cost $50 and took about three business days to transfer money to my US account.
-- May 22, 2009 12:04 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
When you meet a warrior this weekend....reach out, shake their hand and say "thank you for your service to our country"! I'll betcha $10 they smile!
-- May 23, 2009 8:00 PM ∞
Bob wrote:
The fighting between Sunnis and Shiites is over:
The big sleep
Last Updated: April 24. 2009 3:03PM UAE / April 24. 2009 11:03AM GMT
An Awakening fighter mans a checkpoint in Dora in September 2008, shortly before authority over the Awakening groups was transferred from the US to the Iraqi government. Ahmad al Rubaye / AFP
The Sunni militiamen of the Awakening movement have outlived their usefulness to American forces and the Iraqi government. Some worry these unemployed fighters will relaunch the insurgency they left behind – but they don't stand a chance. Nir Rosen reports.On March 28, clashes erupted in Baghdad’s Fadhil district after Iraqi troops arrested the leader of the local Awakening Council, Adil al Mashhadani, one of many former Sunni insurgents who had allied with American forces in the fight against al Qaeda-inspired Salafi militants in Iraq. Mashhadani’s men staged a two-day uprising, which was put down by Iraqis with considerable help from American troops fighting against their former allies.
In Baghdad Mashhadani was a notorious figure, one of many Awakenings men suspected of serious crimes before he went on the American payroll and of continuing them afterwards. I had heard complaints about him since 2007 from Shiites, and especially from supporters of Muqtada al Sadr, who were outraged that a man they accused of the indiscriminate slaughter of Shiite civilians had been empowered by the Americans. An American intelligence officer in Washington told me that the US had possessed incriminating information on Mashhadani for several years – but that he had been one of the first insurgents to see which way the wind was blowing and sign on with the Americans.
Mashhadani’s men and their allies complained that the Americans had betrayed them, and threatened to renew their insurgency unless their leader was released; the clashes in Fadhil provoked new speculation that the failure to integrate the Awakenings into the Iraqi security forces would lead to renewed sectarian strife, if not a return to full-scale civil war. But the brief uprising was quickly put down, and Mashhadani’s arrest demonstrated quite clearly that the civil war is over: there is no organised force in Iraq today capable of challenging, or attempting to overthrow, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki.
In early April, Maliki appeared on Iraqi state television to say that the fighting in Fadhil was not against the Awakening but against remnants of the outlawed Baath Party: what happened in Fadhil, he said, was a message to other Awakening leaders in contact with the Baath Party that they would be next. The Awakening, Maliki said, was over, and its men would now serve the state or hang up their guns.
The arrest of Mashhadani and other Awakening leaders – and Maliki’s remarks – would seem to mark the beginning of the end for what was a controversial and potentially dangerous component of the American strategy in Iraq, the creation and funding of Sunni militias outside the authority of the state. By 2005 there was no doubt that Iraq’s Sunnis and Shiites were engaged in a bloody civil war, and the increasingly aggressive, Shiite-dominated Iraqi Security Forces began to punish Sunni civilians for attacks conducted by al Qa’eda and other Sunni radicals against Shiites. The bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February 2006 triggered a wave of retaliatory violence and escalated attacks by Shiite militias like the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigade, who served as the storm troopers of the increasingly powerful Shiite bloc. They effectively depopulated Baghdad of its Sunnis, who fled to Jordan, Syria or Anbar province. When I met with Sunni resistance leaders in Amman and Damascus in 2006, they openly admitted defeat.
The cleansing of Sunnis from much of Baghdad deprived Sunni insurgents of sanctuary among the population as they were losing battles with al Qa’eda, the Americans and Shiite militias. The Shiite bloc had numerical superiority, backed by the force of the Iraqi state and its security forces. And so, one by one, groups of Sunni resistance fighters struck ceasefire agreements with the Americans and joined the fight against al Qa’eda and other radical elements.
The “surge” of American forces allowed Maliki to strengthen the authority of the state and its security forces, while the establishment of the Awakening groups neutralised anti-government Sunni militias (in some cases simply by paying them salaries not to fight the state). The decline in sectarian violence gave Maliki space to weaken competing Shiite militias, who had been integral to cleansing Sunnis from mixed areas and establishing Shiite dominance but whose presence prevented his fully consolidating control.
The prevailing order in Iraq today is a Shiite-dominated one, but the balance of power is not divided along exclusively sectarian lines: it is between those close to the state and those without its backing – as some wags put it, between the “powers that be” and the “powers that aren’t”. Maliki has pursued a divide-and-conquer strategy among Sunnis, rewarding some local leaders with prestige and privileges while arresting or crushing others. Many Sunnis are more than willing to accept an authoritarian prime minister in exchange for a reduction in violence.
What has not followed the drop in violence is a political settlement: for the past year analysts have worried that the failure to disarm or integrate the Sunni Awakening groups into the state risked sowing the seeds of a new insurgency. But the tepid response to the arrest of Mashhadani and other Awakening men suggests that a political reconciliation may not have been necessary. The burgeoning Iraqi state, embodied by Maliki himself, can simply continue to expand its power and crush any rivals. One US Army Iraq expert, who worked closely with General David Petraeus to plan and implement the surge, told me in 2008 that the civil war would end when the Shiites realised they had won and the Sunnis realised they had lost. Based on the conversations I had during a trip through Iraq last month, both sides seem to accept that this is the case.
A market in Adhamiya, the last remaining Sunni enclave in east Baghdad, where Saddam Hussein made his final public appearance on April 8, 2003. Ali Yussef / AFP
In September 2008 Maliki – in a concession to the Americans – issued an order calling for the integration of 20 per cent of the eligible Awakening men into the ministries of defence and interior. The following month the government of Iraq began to assume responsibility (financial and otherwise) over the Awakening groups. But as of today less than five per cent have joined the Iraqi Security Forces. At the same time, senior Awakening leaders and many of their men have been arrested, while others have been relieved of their duties (and their pay) and told to go home. It is a quiet and slow process, but one that continues to emasculate one of the last groups that rivalled the authority of the Iraqi state.There is nothing the Awakening groups can do. As guerrillas and insurgents they were only effective when they operated covertly, underground, blending in among a Sunni population that has now mostly been dispersed. Now the former resistance fighters-turned-paid guards are publicly known, and their names, addresses and biometric data are in the hands of American and Iraqi forces. They cannot return to an underground that has been cleared, and they still face the wrath of radical Sunnis who view them as traitors. They have failed to unite and as their stories demonstrate, they are on the run.
********************************
In December 2007 I met a 30-year-old man named Osama who had a contract with the US Army to provide 300 Iraqi Security Volunteers, as the Americans called the Awakening men. (They were also known, less formally, as the “Sons of Iraq”.) Osama’s men guarded a sector in the Mekanik area of south Baghdad’s volatile Dora district. He wore jeans, a sweater and baseball cap and had a slight baby face concealed by stubble.“People loved al Qa’eda at first,” Osama said, “they protected the neighbourhood from the Mahdi Army and the Iraqi police, but they got more powerful and they kidnapped Sunnis and Christians.” Most of his fighters had belonged to Sunni insurgent groups like the Army of the Mujahideen, the Islamic Army and the 1920 Revolution Brigades. These men began to turn against al Qa’eda after IEDs placed in civilian areas began to kill Iraqis as well. Together with men called Abu Yasser (formerly of the Army of the Mujahideen) and Abu Salih (of the 1920 Revolution Brigades), Osama began to tip off the Americans about the location of IEDs. Soon they were calling the Americans for assistance when Shiite militias attacked the neighbourhood and passing on information about the whereabouts of suspected al Qa’eda militants.
Abu Yasser told me then that he decided to work with the Americans and the Awakening “because of Iranians getting more power in Iraq,” he told me. “They are occupying Sunni areas. They are the bigger enemy.” He admitted that Sunnis made a strategic blunder by boycotting the Iraqi political process in the early days of the occupation, and Sunni clerics made a mistake by issuing fatwas prohibiting Sunnis from joining the nascent security forces the Americans were creating. “This is the result now. Because we didn’t join the police and army, they got full of the Mahdi Army and Badr.” Abu Yasser hoped to join the police one day, but added, “if the government doesn’t let us join we’ll stay here protecting our area”.
But the Awakening groups never had a chance against the centralised authority of the Iraqi state: from the beginning they were divided against one another, squabbling over the power they had previously been denied. In February 2008, I accompanied Abu Salih and his men to Ramadi, where they had been summoned to a meeting by the head of the Awakening Council, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha. Osama was excited at the prospect of discussing the future of the movement – he wanted the Awakening groups to form a government for Sunnis with Abu Risha, he told me, “because the Iraqi government doesn’t do sh**”.
But in Ramadi the order of the day was seeing off several rivals from their own neighbourhood, who had appealed to the Sheikh in Ramadi to be recognised as movement’s official representatives in Dora in advance of the next elections. Abu Salih traded insults and accusations with the competition, with each faction accusing the other of al Qa’eda membership and claiming to have single-handedly protected the neighbourhood. After an hour of contentious argument, Abu Salih left, proudly carrying the Awakening Council flag: they were Dora’s new political bosses.
It did them little good: the following month Osama threatened to quit and withdraw all his men after an assault by the Shiite-dominated Iraqi National Police, who opened fire on the neighbourhood and beat some of Osama’s men with rifles. The Americans did nothing, Osama complained, and they were late with payments. “They are killing me,” he said, “like I’m begging money from them, every day the same bullsh**, people don’t believe that they’re late, they think I’m keeping money.”
In October 2008, two weeks after authority over Dora’s Awakening groups passed to the Iraqi government, Osama’s deputy Abu Yasser was arrested by the National Police. Osama told me he was taken to the police headquarters, hung by his arms, and tortured. He confessed to murders he hadn’t committed – but the victims he named were still alive. Still, he remains in prison. He has already paid $20,000 toward his release, Osama told me, but “they can’t release him without money, everything costs money.” Abu Yasser was worried that al Qa’eda men in prison with him would find out that he was with the Awakening and kill him.
After Abu Yasser’s arrest, Abu Salih arranged a lunch to celebrate Eid; he invited the local American army unit as well. In the meantime he had achieved a measure of fame, and even Abud Qanbar, the commander of Iraqi security forces in Baghdad, came to Dora and shook his hand, accompanied by television cameras. “Abu Salih helped many Shiite families come back and protected them,” Osama told me, but said that not long after the lunch, a new American unit showed up in the area and arrested Abu Salih. He was taken to the serious crimes unit of the Iraqi police and accused of terrorism. Osama said that he too was tortured and hung by his arms, and now has trouble walking. Abu Salih also paid about $20,000, according to Osama, and his family expect him to be released when more money is paid. At least eight other men I knew from Osama’s group had been arrested since the Iraqi government took over.
When I met Osama in March, he was hiding in an apartment on the northern edge of Baghdad – there was a warrant out for his arrest as well, and he could not return to Dora to visit his parents. Osama felt betrayed. “The Americans were only with us when they needed us,” he said. When he called the Americans to complain that Abu Yassir had been arrested, they told him it was an Iraqi affair.
“The Sons of Iraq was never supposed to be an amnesty programme,” one American embassy official in Baghdad told me when I recounted this story to him. A Shiite Iraqi Army captain who fought both al Qa’eda and the Mahdi Army put it this way: “the Mahdi Army was taking over Sunni areas so the Americans came up with the Awakening to create a balance between Shiites and Sunnis. We knew the Awakening, we had their names, we knew that they were wanted men. The first time I heard about it I was against it – armed guys on the street. But the Americans said ‘cooperate with them, use them now and we’ll arrest them later.’”
********************************
Many of the Awakening leaders I saw in Baghdad and its environs in March told similar stories. In the Mukhabarat area of Baghdad’s Jihad district, I visited Ibrahim Saleh, also known as Abu Abdallah Hamdani. The area was walled off, and the entrance was guarded by a tense Awakening man and some members of the National Police. Inside I drove by a large lake of sewage and rubbish alongside a dirt road that led to Saleh’s large house, still under construction at the top of a hill.Saleh took charge of 160 Awakening men in August 2008, after the National Police arrested his brother Taher, the area’s previous leader. He said that he and his brother joined the Awakening because they wanted to protect the area, and because there were no other jobs. “The Friendly Forces,” as he called the Americans, “came to us and asked Taher my brother to protect the area and give information. The Awakening was established here in July 2007.” He claimed his brother had a good relationship with the National Police, but one day they came to patrol the area, and Taher invited them to lunch. “After they finished eating they arrested him,” Saleh told me. “They accused him of murder and stealing. In the beginning they beat him badly, he passed out for two days.”
Ibrahim claimed that both al Qa’eda and Shiite militias had tried to assassinate him. Two weeks before I met him one of his Awakening men was arrested and beaten until he confessed to murder. I asked him what he expected would come next. “This is the reality,” he said. “I will be arrested, 100 per cent. As soon as they finish with me they will arrest me.” He too felt betrayed. “We were with the government of Iraq and the Americans. The arrests can’t happen without the permission of the Americans.”
Ibrahim’s men get 345,000 Iraqi dinars (Dhs1093, or about $300) a month. Since the handover many of his men have not received their salaries. None of his men were integrated into the security forces, he said, and he claimed that at the nearby Furat Police Academy, any Sunni recruit was rejected.
Along the banks of the Tigris in south Baghdad is an idyllic rural area, called Arab Jubur, which was the scene of some of the worst al Qa’eda violence of the war. As I drove there from Dora with a local friend, past groves of palm trees, he pointed to empty fields where he said al Qa’eda used to dump bodies, many of them Shiites kidnapped on the nearby motorway. “They would take whole Kia buses full of people,” he said. We drove through numerous checkpoints where Awakening men stood alongside Iraqi soldiers. The road was scarred by IEDs and the holes were filled with dirt.
I stopped to chat with two Awakening men at a checkpoint outside Arab Jubur. My friend told me that both men had been with the Army of the Mujahideen, but joined the Awakening in 2007. Neither they nor their comrades had succeeded in joining the Iraqi Security Forces. “We all tried,” they said. “It was only promises.” They had also not been paid in two months. A 17-year-old boy from the neighbourhood hopped in our car to take us to the house of the local Awakening leader. “It became normal to see dead bodies here on the side of the road,” he said as we drove.
Iraqi soldiers patrol Baghdad’s Fadhil district a day after clashes erupted between Awakening men and Iraqi and American forces, following the arrest of Adel al Mashhadani, the head of the local Awakening Council. Hadi Mizban / AP Photo
Inside the house I met Tahsin Abdallah Khalal al Rabia, of the Jubur tribe. Only 25, he was one of the first men in the area to join the Awakening, which was led in the area by his brother Amer. He told me that three of his brothers had been killed by al Qa’eda even before they established an Awakening group, and one after. As we spoke, Amer showed up, wearing a loose fitting suit with a pistol tucked in his pants. A 24-year veteran of the Iraqi Army, Amer led the Awakening groups in the villages of Zunbaraniya, Uleimiya and Beijia. Under the Americans he led 629 men, but the Iraqis had been reducing his numbers, firing men every month, and he was down to only 490. He too said that none of his men had managed to join the Iraqi Security Forces.A few months earlier, he said, two of his men captured two al Qa’eda fighters and brought them to Dora to hand them over to the National Police. But Amer’s men were arrested as well, and remained in prison in Dora.
“The Iraqi army pays us now,” he said, “and many negative things have happened. They reduced salaries: I used to get $600 a month, now I get $300 a month like my men. The Americans used to come here to pay us, now we have to go to Iraqi army battalion, wait on long lines, sometimes for two or three days. We are treated with disrespect. For the last two months there is no salary. It’s all fake promises.”
Iraqi soldiers, he complained, had beaten one of his men and insulted him because he did not salute them. “We are targeted by al Qa’eda and we have no protection,” he told me. He said that he had been falsely accused of murder, and there was now a warrant for his arrest in Baghdad. Sectarianism persisted in Iraq, but it was now covert, he told me. “Why did terrorism happen?” he asked. “Because of the vacuum. If they don’t put the Awakening groups in the Iraqi army or Iraqi police, problems will happen.”
********************************
In Adhamiya, the last Sunni enclave in east Baghdad, I met Abu Omar, also known as Khalil Ibrahim, one of the Awakening leaders there. The neighbourhood is home to the important Abu Hanifa mosque, where Saddam Hussein made his last public appearance, surrounded by adoring supporters, on April 8, 2003. I sat with Abu Omar on some plastic chairs and drank tea in the main square, which was adorned with posters of slain Awakening fighters, including two of Abu Omar’s sons. I worried about suicide bombers, who had killed several of Adhamiya’s Awakening leaders inside the neighbourhood. As we sat, small boys ran around us. One of them, whose father was a slain Awakening fighter, played with a plastic pistol, shooting at us.“If the Awakening wasn’t here,” he said proudly, “in 20 years the Iraqi army and US army wouldn’t be able to come in.” He bragged that it was the “third hottest area in Iraq” and noted that the neighbourhood held out against American troops for a day longer than much of the rest of Baghdad. Then Abu Omar was fighting the Americans as well, and I asked him how he could collaborate with his former enemies. “The Americans are leaving, but the Iranians are staying,” he told me.
In November 2007 he joined the Awakening with 13 other family members. He had been a non-commissioned intelligence officer in the Iraqi army, and claims that after the war he was jobless and sold gasoline on the black market.
At first Abu Omar’s men clashed with the Iraqi Army. “We don’t accept the Iraqi police here,” he told me, “they can only come with army. We don’t like them, they’re all militias.” Out of the hundreds of Awakening men in his area, only four had managed to join the police. “The government is sectarian,” he said. “They want to destroy the Awakening.”
Under the Americans, he said, his men were paid on time, and he was given gas, bullets and money for food. But when we spoke, the salaries were 52 days late, and 84 of his men had been relieved of their duties. When the Americans withdraw, he said, the civil war will resume. I asked him why he did not unite with other Awakening leaders to form a stronger front. “We tried in 2008,” he told me. “Awakening leaders couldn’t join together because they couldn’t agree among themselves.”
When they were first established, the Awakening groups were a formidable force. But it may seem now to many of the former insurgents that they miscalculated: their cooperation has not resulted in political power or even incorporation into the security forces. Awakening men are not the only people in Iraq today who can’t find work – that problem is widespread – but former Shiite militiamen, by comparison, have much less trouble joining the security forces.
Several Awakening men told me that some of their leaders were fleeing, out of fear of arrest, and that others were contemplating a return to violence in response to the increased pressure they faced from the government. In recent weeks scores of Awakening men have been arrested in Dora and Arab Jubur, and there were reports in April that an American air strike killed a group of Awakening fighters allegedly planting IEDs in north Baghdad.
The failed uprising in Fadhil at the end of March was a distinct sign, however, that no united Sunni front is likely to emerge. The deadly insurgency that followed the American invasion was spread across a wide swath of the country; resistance from isolated local Sunni groups poses no such problem for the strengthened Iraqi state, and the failure of other Awakening leaders to come to Mashhadani’s defence makes it clear there will be no widespread uprising.
At the beginning of April, a few days after Mashhadani was arrested, Thamir al Tamimi, also known as Abu Azzam, a senior Awakening Council leader from Anbar who is a liaison to the government, downplayed the significance of the arrest in an interview and said that joining the Awakening did not provide a person with immunity.
Hamid al Hayis, an early founder of the Awakening in Anbar, gave a similar interview to the Saudi-owned Asharq al Awsat, in which he defended the arrest of Mashhadani. The Awakening, he said, was now only a political organisation, and only Iraqi government forces should be armed; other men carrying weapons, he said, were nothing more than militias.
A spate of bombings followed the clashes in Fadhil, giving rise to more concern about a return to sectarian conflict. Shiite neighbourhoods in Baghdad were struck by coordinated car bombs, and attacks against American soldiers, Iraqi Security Forces and Awakening members also increased.
Some of these attacks may represent a warning by Awakening leaders that they can still obstruct American goals in Iraq; they are more likely an opportunistic attempt by al Qa’eda-like groups to take advantage of Sunni grievances and provoke further violence. But there is little prospect for another outbreak of war: today there is no area controlled by al Qa’eda in Iraq, and it does not appear likely the group can seize any territory.
The remaining Awakening men have burnt their bridges with their more radical former allies and are now hunted by them; the Iraqi Security Forces have improved their intelligence and strike capability and have little problem tracking those men they want to arrest. Sunni civilians have no interest in backing a new insurgency after their own bitter experience – and they no longer feel targeted by Shiite militias.
The occasional al Qa’eda suicide attack can still kill masses of innocent civilians, but it has no strategic impact; in fact it is difficult to understand what motivates such attacks today, since their effect is almost nil. It would be naive to say that Iraq’s future is certain, or even likely, to be a peaceful one, but the war between Sunnis and Shiites is now over.
Nir Rosen is a Fellow at the New York University Center on Law and Security. He is finishing a book about the civil war in Iraq.
-- May 24, 2009 8:59 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
Hi everybody, I just purchased 250,000 Dinar. Does anyone know when they will set the value on the new Dinar and how much it will be set at? I am hearing June 1, 2009 they will announce to the public how much it will be worth and an inside source I have is saying it could be worth up to $5.31
-- May 28, 2009 2:07 PM ∞
NellyB wrote:
Roger.
Your recent post was, as always, highly informative and entertaining. I swear I get a better picture of what it is like to be over there from your posts than from a million news stories.
I think someone mentioned it many months ago that you 'should' write a book. My own thoughts are that this would be a very popular read. You have a talent for getting your unique insights across in a very concise and clear way, without being boring or purely factual.
Kudos to you for getting your butt over their and not only seeing what is going on over in the sand pit, but also making it happen.
All the best and play safe :o)
Hi Andy. Welcome aboard. Grab yourself a seat, sit back and enjoy the view. You could be in for a bit of a wait. If you hang on a few more weeks it might hit $5.40!
NellyB
-- May 28, 2009 5:27 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
I do not mean to be a wet blanket but you may want to cast the date of 06/01/09 aside as well as the exchange rate of $5.31.
Iraq is still sometime away from altering its exchange rate in a significant manner. The GoI must still pass Hydro Carbon legislation prior to any change in the Dinars exchange rate. They must monetize its oil to back such a move cash reserves and gold alone would not support it.
Your source stating $5.31 per Dinar is in my opinion way off base. Is your source a dealer? I would venture a broad guess of $.33 to $1.00 and the dollar may be stretching it.
I concur with NellyB sit back and relax. Do not look for anything of significance until after the parlimentary elections to be held Jan 2010.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- May 28, 2009 5:53 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
...and thanks for all your positive comments.
Today another team did the daily (nightly that is, in the Baghdad area we can not do convoys in day time) convoy, and I had a rare opportunity to be in the yard, doing some work, and at the wee hours compose a little bit on the "pjuter".
I would like to report a little bit as the "eye on the ground", and I have observed something that I don't know how to interpret.
I will just put it out there to you and you try to figure it out. Your guess will probably be as good as mine. No one will for sure tell us nohing here.
According to the news we are now in a three year ( close to two and a half year left) contract with the Iraqis to stay here, and after that we're suppose to leave, all of us, leave nothing left.
Ok, Obama wants to do this a little bit quicker, and are talking about a year and a half.
In order to dismantle this whole infrastructure and ship it back home, you have to put into it a loooot of effort, because if we are to tear this down in record time, all the bases we have been continously building on since we got here, we need to get really really busy doing that more or less yesterday.
Granted there are some material that will not be cost effective to bring back, and some are probably being considered to be left behind to the Iraqis, but the amount of stuff we have here is many fully functional bases.
I do know that some of the smaller bases ARE in fact shutting down, and I have observed some personell moving around because of that.
However, at least two very big bases that I am in contact with veery frequently, show no indication of folding up, instead, construction is ongoing, and I can see some pretty big projects being done as we speak. That to me does not indicate that we will leave, but the contrary, that we are here to stay.
Today we had a small, in base, convoy where we took a lot of empty containers to the shipping point. I happened to hear that they were going to Kuwait empty, to get loaded and shipped back.
I can imagine that if we are leaving, we would fill the containers with something we want to get out, but we are instead hauling stuff in here, in big volume.
The projects I have seen being done is something I would call "multi million dollar projects" with complex structures in ongoing constuction.
Taken into account a couple of data:
1. The three year contract .
2. Obamas wish to get it done quicker.
3. Suggestion from the Iraqis that they may not want us out in such a hurry after all...... makes me believe that the public announcement of actual troop withdrawals and the "real" planning is two different animals.
We are suppose to be down to 35 to 50.000 troops by the middle of next year, and the remainaing troops are now re-named "advisors".
We are suppose to be out of every major city by the end of this June.
In effect, we are suppose to only be a force that are completely walled in in forts after June.
My take, and that has a little bit broader view, what is going on, and that we really need to "drag our feet" out of here, is the following.
On this I might be right or wrong, but I have a feeling that Iran is one of the reasons we are here in such a force.
Iran have already told the world that it will obliterate Israel, and in effect the situatin is pretty simple.
Israel is a country, it can't hide or run, it IS there.
If you can't run or hide, and someone would tell you: -"I hate your guts, and I am going to kill you, and now I am going to get a gun and do just that".
Would you let him go and get the gun, if you were armed and could stop him?
The choice is simple, let him get the gun and you will die, stop him from getting that gun, with whatever means you have, and you will live.
From all the discussions we have had earlier on this blog, nothing has changed, except that the time is getting shorter and shorter.
It is pretty much predictions that a fifth grader can do, Israel must hit, if no diplomatic solution is at hand.
I am really sure they are trying diplomatic solutions, but from the part of Iran, the negotiations are only means of buying time, in order to develop and produce their nuclear warheads.
Now, THAT scenario makes more sense to me, as a reason to hang around in Iraq as long as possible.
Who knows, if it comes to blows with Iran, any old contract with Iraq, will probably be renewed with the perspective from the new scenario in the aftermath of THAT conflict, and THAT may be a completely different ballgame.
All of this is specualtion of course, but it seems more real along any logical lines to me anyway.
I don't think, in case there will be a conflict with Iran, that Iraq will be involved in that conflict, it MAY if the Iranians are lobbing warheads into American bases here in Iraq, instead the gavanizing factor that will unite Iraq against an outside enemy.
Despite the fact that Iraq is 60 % Shiite, there is a difference between Iran and Iraq. They have already had a war between them so the idea is not far fetched. Iran and Iraq are trying very much to cooperate, but there is an international pressure, plus a national awareness already in Iraq.
As I described earlier, the common man is still much in the hands of his Mullah and Sheik, and his loyalty to Iraq is perhaps the third in line, after the Mullahs and Sheiks, but he is not aligned with Iran in any way or form other than on religious ground.
Ok it is a little bit much to dwell on, all in one package, so I think I better go and wrap up some caqins on some trucks we need to use tomorrow.
See ya all,
Roger
-- May 28, 2009 8:40 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Roger in Iraq,
caqins = chains
oooops,
-- May 28, 2009 8:43 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger and all,
Roger,
I do not think that what you are describing is at all in odds against American foreign policy for Iraq. I resently read or saw a documentary somewhere about how the Iraqis people cooperated with the USA military by turning in Al-qaida and Iranians due to their thought that the people in Iraq viewed the Iranians as the greater threat. I think that this view has been discussed probably by the Iraq Government privately with American officials.
-Your thoughts about the Israel possibly attacking Iran is a valid point.
-The Iraqis being concerned about possible attack from Iran is also a possibility--- even if this war is not recognized.
-The other possibility is that the military maybe planning on moving supplies to Afghanistan. We seem to be moving on military plans to help that population in winning the minds and hearts of the Afghanistan people. Given that this is the policy, some of these supplies could be slated for removal there.
-The other item we know is that the supplies moved to Iraq were for re-construction of Iraq. These supplies could and probably will be used for this purpose.
They still have times for both of these purposes to unfold. And, in the event that Iran decides to attack Israel or vise-versa or even the possibility to attack Iraq-- then the military has options.
Roger, let us know when the military start moving supplies. As I am sure, this is going to happen.
Stay safe.
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 12:34 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger,
The other item is that American is not planning on moving some of these large bases at all. As you stated, 50,000 troops will be left behind in Iraq. It sounds to me like these bases maybe used strategically (as needed). This is not contendant on this 2 1/2 -3 year plan of Obama's.
-Also, northern Iraq has invited troops to stay on forever it seems. They want an American presence.
-The other thought I have is that america has never intended to leave due to the very large embassy. This embassy is the largest one that the USA government has ever built according to the state department. What does that suggest to you?.Sounds like politics to me from both Iraq officials and the American political spheres.
-Oil is another issue. The USA wants to protect this as a vital USA interest. The Iraq's want to protect this right against Iran and any others who want to take it from Iraq. Therefore, Iraq will want the USA to stay.
What do the rest of you think?
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 1:00 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Do you all remember us discussing the probablity of US troops moving into forts at the outskirts of all the cities into remote locations. Remember we discussed the possibility of the military placing an air force umbrella over the air space of Iraq.
It sort of sounds to me like this is what is happening. The Iraq's are taking on ground security of their country...with a little help from USA and the USA is taking on the air security for the country.
Laura Parker
-- May 29, 2009 1:11 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The below comments were made this week by General Casey. The four or five "super bases", such as Al-Asad, have been constructed over a several year period to house our troops and handle air operations. I knew the bases had reached "super" status when Popeyes Chicken and KFC opened for business.
==================================================================================================================================================="WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon is prepared to leave fighting forces in Iraq for as long as a decade despite an agreement between the United States and Iraq that would bring all American troops home by 2012, the top U.S. Army officer said Tuesday.
Gen. George Casey, the Army chief of staff, said the world remains dangerous and unpredictable, and the Pentagon must plan for extended U.S. combat and stability operations in two wars. "Global trends are pushing in the wrong direction," Casey said. "They fundamentally will change how the Army works."
He spoke at an invitation-only briefing to a dozen journalists and policy analysts from Washington-based think-tanks. He said his planning envisions combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for a decade as part of a sustained U.S. commitment to fighting extremism and terrorism in the Middle East."
-- May 29, 2009 1:52 AM ∞
wrote:
-- May 29, 2009 9:25 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Funny youtube.....our Brit cousins certainly have a good sense of humor!
-- May 30, 2009 2:26 AM ∞
Andy wrote:
Hi everyone, the rate has been set at $5.62 is what I am hearing and for everyone to say that it wont be that high where is your logic? They wont set it at 33 cents that is way too low it wouldnt do anything for their economy. When this happened to Kuwait in 1990 their currency was set at $7 so it is definetly possible.
-- May 30, 2009 3:29 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Andy....
The Kuwait Dinar is currently worth $3.48 and their oil curve is going down. Iraq could be $5.62 because their oil curve is going up. I still believe they will RV at less than $1.00 and let it find it's own level. The truth is....anything above 10 cents will set us all free and the party will go on for days!
-- May 30, 2009 4:05 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I have run across some Deka articles from Israel that may shread some light on Roger's questions about what is happening in the Middle East.
____________________________________
Netanyahu, Mubarak, Abbas meet Obama in Washington this month
12 May: President Hosni Mubarak is invited to talks with US President Barack Obama on May 26, eight days after the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's May 18 visit. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas follows on May 28.DEBKAfile's Middle East sources report that the private one-and-a-half hour conversation Netanyahu and Mubarak held a at Sharm el-Sheikh Monday, May 11 focused on the urgency of a common Israeli-Arab strategy for dealing with Iran and its allies, which Egypt too has defined as a threat to its own and Middle East stability. Both are worried by the Obama administration's lenience toward Tehran.
Their brief statements later dealt only with their differing approaches on the Palestinian issue.Mubarak stressed the vision of two states for two nations and the Arab peace initiative, calling on Israel to take up the peace dialogue with the Palestinians from the point it ran aground last year.
Netanyahu, while pledging to renew talks in a matter of weeks, omitted to support two states and emphasized the talks must start on a fresh basis, focusing on diplomatic, economic and security issues. Israel and its Palestinian neighbors can co-exist in peace, security and prosperity, he said.
-- May 30, 2009 9:47 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
More Debkafile (Israeli News) articles.
------------------------Egypt acts to block Hamas arms smuggling - finally
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report13 May: Egypt has deployed 600 commandos in civilian garb in the northern Sinai town of El Arish and the divided Gaza town of Rafah for its first ever serious effort to cork up the hundreds of Hamas' arms smuggling mega-tunnels into the Gaza Strip.
Now, for the first time, chances are good for severing the subterranean lifeline feeding the Hamas arsenal which has blasted Israel for eight years, a high-ranking Israeli security officer commented. "If Cairo had done this three years ago," he said, "Iran might never have been able to move in on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip and spread its wings across into Egypt territory.
Cairo has taken four significant steps:
1. It has closed off the sector between El Arish and Rafah as an off-limits military zone. Vehicles going in or out are searched by Egyptian commandos.
2. Roadblocks are posted 20 kilometers apart on Sinai road connections to the Suez Canal and Red Sea coasts.
3. The tunnel owners of the El Arish and Rafah were warned that gun-runners face years in an Egyptian jail with hard labor.
4. Sinai Bedouin chiefs were handed hefty cash grants to stop the arms smugglers from transiting their territories.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Iranian sources: Obama to free four Iranian "diplomats" in swap for US journalist
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report13 May: Those sources reveal that US journalist Roxana Saberi was released Tuesday, May 12, as part of an exchange deal for Washington to free four senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers captured in Irbil, northern Iraq in January 2007. Defined as "diplomats" by Tehran, they ran terror operations and covert arms supplies from Iran then to al Qaeda and Sunni insurgent networks.
The Obama administration is also considering releasing to Tehran information on the fate of the Iranian diplomat who disappeared in Pakistan four months ago. The four Iranian agents have not yet been freed, but senior Iranian and Iraqi sources say it will happen soon. The date depends on Tehran satisfying Washington's demand for information on the former FBI agent Robert Levinson, who has never been heard of from the time he disappeared on the Iranian island of Kish in March 2007.
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CIA chief visits Israel, mixed Washington assessments on Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report14 May: CIA Director Leon Panetta visited Israel two weeks ago to explore Israel's intentions with regard to a raid on Iran's nuclear facilities and its alignment with Egypt and Saudi Arabia for this shared objective.
The agency's latest assessments - that Iran lacks adequate military resources to shield its nuclear sites from attack and would also pull its punches in responding to an Israeli strike - were not taken seriously by Israel or the Egyptian and Saudi leaders, who heard them from defense secretary Robert Gates at around the same time.
They suspected that Washington is trying to prevent Israel's link-up with Egypt and Saudi Arabia for sending its warplanes against Iran through the skies of its two Arab partners, without asking the United States.
Panetta and Gates alike returned home convinced that Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf emirates are far more fearful of a nuclear-armed Iran than of clashing with the Obama administration over its Iran policy. This has prompted a policy review in Washington, which is still going on, producing Obama's sudden decision to address the Muslim world from Egypt on June 4 and his renewal of sanctions against Syria. It bodes a smoother visit to Washington by Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu next Monday, May 18.
-- May 30, 2009 9:51 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
More articles from Debka News.
-------------------------Sharp US reversal: From détente to new sanctions against Syria
09 May: An unnamed Syrian source described Washington's decision of Friday, May 8, to renew US sanctions because of the continuing threat Damascus posed to US interests "a routine measure." The source said the measure would not affect dialogue between the two countries.After a major diplomatic offensive to thaw relations with Syrian president Bashar Assad, US president Barack Obama sent a letter to Congress accusing Damascus of "supporting terrorism, pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, and undermining US and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq."
DEBKAfile's Middle East sources explain Obama's change of heart by his disappointment with Assad's refusal to respond to the efforts of US envoys to persuade him to start moving away from Tehran and stop transferring arms to the Shiite terrorist Hizballah. He also refused to keep his hands of Lebanon's June elections, in which Hizballah and pro-Syrian factions are challenging the western-backed majority government.
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Pakistan hangs back from major Swat offensive, holds secret talks with Taliban
DEBKAfile Special Analysis
10 May: DEBKAfile's military sources report that accounts of a major Pakistan military offensive launched to flush Taliban out of their strongholds in the northern Swat Valley are inflated. This is not to say that hundreds of thousands of civilians are not fleeing the valley. Some half a million are on the move and will join the same number displaced since August, generating a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe.The Pakistani army has so far not fought a single pitched battle with the Taliban, nor rooted them out of any cities and villages under their control. Instead, they are using long-range artillery against Taliban positions and warplane and helicopter strikes against small Taliban groups on the move. The 15,000 Pakistani troops poised in the Swat Valley are not about to launch a major offensive against the 5,000 Taliban fighters standing against them. For one thing, double the number of troops would be needed. For another, the Islamabad government and local insurgent chiefs are in secret negotiation to arrange for the army to move "victoriously" into the main Swat towns of Mingora and Kambar without facing resistance. Taliban would retreat to the countryside, undefeated and with minimal losses. Both sides would then revert to the original deal for the imposition of Sharia law in the province in return for a ceasefire.
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May 10 Briefs:
- Four knife-carrying Palestinians caught heading for Jerusalem and Hebro.
- Israeli security sources: Stabbing attempts orchestrated for Pope Benedict's visit Monday:
One would-be terrorist picked up in Gilo, Jerusalem.
Second heading for Jerusalem through the Tunnels Road.
Two more stopped outside the Cave of the Patriarchs, Hebron ---
- New anti-tank missile armor, Windbreaker, fitted on first Israeli Chariot-4 tank unit.
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Gates demands resignation of US Afghanistan commander
DEBKAfile Special Report
11 May: US defense Secretary Robert Gates has asked for the top US commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David McKiernan to resign and recommended he be replaced by a former Special Operations officer in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal.The incoming chief, currently the director of the joint staff, was forward commander of the US military's covert Joint Special Operations Command from 2006 to August 2008, which was responsible for tracking down and killing al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi in April 2006, as well as high-profile Sunni insurgents.
Gates seems to believe that McChrystal's special operations tactics may succeed better in breaking Talilban-al Qaeda resistance than the more traditional methods of the departing Gen. McKiernan.
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Pope Benedict's Yad Vashem speech disappoints Israel
11 May: The widely anticipated address by Pope Benedict XVI at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial Center in Jerusalem was too general, theological and abstract to ease strains with the Jewish people.
The pontiff offered no apology; nor did he mention Germany and the Nazis, when he said: "Those who lost their lives must never lose their names or be forgotten" and "The atrocity which disgraced mankind must never happen again," without specifying its perpetrators."The Catholic Church feels deep compassion for all victims of persecution," said the German-born pontiff.
Benedict's five-day visit to Israel and the Palestinians began at Ben Gurion on arrival from Jordan, Monday, May 11, when he called for the establishment of a "Palestinian homeland," plunging deep in the most sensitive Middle East politics. He was greeted by a long line of welcoming dignitaries headed by Israel's president, prime minister and heads of the various faiths.Around 30,000 police are on duty in Israel's largest security operation in years, involving also decoy helicopters for his carefully-balanced itinerary in Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Wednesday, the pope visits the Palestinian refugee camp at Bethlehem and leads a mass at Manger Square. Thursday, he spends in Nazareth where he also meets Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
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Netanyahu-Mubarak Talks Aim for Arab-Israel Front against Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis11 May: If successful, Binyamin Netanyahu's first talks as Israeli prime minister with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak at Sharm el Sheikh Monday, May 11, could mark the epic birth of Israel's first alliance with two key Arab nations, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, in order to stop Iran. Netanyahu has bought the proposition that he may have to pay his two Arab partners in the coin of concessions to the Palestinians. But the Israeli leader believes it is worth price for the sake of a working partnership with Egypt and Saudi Arabia against Iran.
In strategic-historic terms, he believes that would be a more advantageous deal than succumbing to American arm-twisting. After all, Cairo and Riyadh are willing to stand up shoulder to shoulder with Israel against Iran – unlike the Obama administration.
The Israeli prime minister utterly rejects the tradeoff implied in US National adviser Gen. James Jones statement Sunday that a two state-solution would diminish Iran's existential threat to Israel, with no guarantee of the latter.
-- May 30, 2009 10:00 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
More articles on the middle east from another Debka newspaper. As we can't get this news from our own USA news service, I thought this might be enlightening to some.
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Washington threatens to evacuate three US bases over Qatar's pro-Iran policyMay 15: The Obama administration has secretly warned Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani that he risks losing the three big American bases located in the emirate if he persists in promoting Iran's radicalizing influence over Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians.
An American military withdrawal from the emirate, especially the big Al Odeid air base and Central Command headquarters, would be a crushing blow to Al Thani. It would leave Qatar and the rest of the Gulf unprotected in any military conflagration in the region over Iran's nuclear program.
It alarmed Emir al Thani enough for him to takes steps, one of which was to direct the news editors of al Jazeera TV station, which he owns, to moderate the anti-American line of its English and Arabic language broadcasts.
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May 15 briefs:
- Egyptian security officers uncover big arms cache near Israeli border in Sinai.
It contained 260 rockets, 40 mines, 50 mortar shells, anti-air missiles.
They were bound for Hamas in Gaza Strip.
- Pope winds up five-day visit to Israel, Palestinian territories Friday noon.
- Tony Blair to US Congress: Neither Israelis nor Palestinians want to resume peace talks.
They must be pushed.
Israel will never accept a Palestinian state without a stability guarantee.
- US Federal court refuses Palestinian Authority appeal against $116 m compensation for couple stabbed to death in 1996 terror attack.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US upholds Israel's nuclear position as long as Iran enriches uranium16 May: This statement by a senior American official in Vienna paves the way for an Israeli request to extend the 40-year old "ambiguity" arrangement approved by Obama's predecessors for its nuclear program.
The senior US official, addressing preparatory talks for a nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference in 2010, made it clear that US arms control negotiator Rose Gottermoelle did not break new ground last week when she urged presumed atomic powers India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea to join the nuclear non-proliferation pact. He said: The four presumed nuclear nations were unlikely to join the NPT "until there is a change in the overall political and security context." He added: "In the particular case of the Middle East, Israeli adherence to the NPT is only going to be possible in the context of… full compliance with [the treaty in the region]."
Establishing a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone "depends on Iran fully complying with its NPT obligations and suspending uranium enrichment."
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Jordan's Abdullah appoints his 9-year son crown prince, sacks Hazme
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report17 May: Jordan's King Abdullah II has been hyperactive on the Palestinian issue in the last few days to draw attention from a highly controversial decree which has taken Amman by storm: the appointment of his 9-year old son, Hussein, as crown prince, after summarily sacking from the post his 27-year old half-brother Prince Hazme, son of King Hussein and US-born Queen Noor, who lives in America.
This decision has aroused a major to-do in the royal court as well as opposition in Jordan's government and military elite. They fear Abdullah's his appointment of a young child as first in line to the throne will plunge the kingdom into a period of instability. They also accuse him of breaking a deathbed promise to his father.
When King Hussein knew he was dying of cancer in 1999, he pulled the post of crown prince from his brother, Prince Hassan, and passed it to his own son, Abdullah, against a pledge to appoint Prince Hamze next in line to the throne.
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May 17 briefs:
- Hatred of Jews intensifies among Israeli Arab community, according to a new poll.
Increased numbers - 40% - deny Holocaust and the Jews' right to a state.
- Israel registers 3.4 percent negative growth in first quarter.
Exports drop 48 percent as recession begins to bite.
- Netanyahu to visit Sarkozy in Paris in two weeks.
- Al-Shabab militia captures key Jowhar town north of Mogadishu from Somali government troops. - Netanyahu arrives in Washington for talks with Obama Monday.
He will also meet Gates, Clinton, Jones and national American-Jewish leaders.
- First women elected to Kuwait parliament.
Sunni parties lose 10 of 21 seats, Shiite minority doubles representation to nine.
- Egypt finds half-ton Hamas weapons cache near Gaza border – second Egyptian haul in a week.
- Peres meets Jordan's Abdullah in Amman.
- Arab League Secy Amr Musa: Main ME concern is nuclear Israel not Iran.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US-Israel summit shadowed by Obama's soft stand on Iranian enrichment
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report18 May: DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that the gap between US president Barack Obama and Israel prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Iran was wider even than on the Palestinian issue.
Overshadowing their outwardly easy conversation was the US president's growing inclination to meet Iran halfway on uranium enrichment. He is seriously considering taking up the Anglo-German proposal for an international monitoring mechanism strict enough to preclude Iran's attainment of weapons-grade enriched uranium after being advised by US intelligence and nuclear experts that this is feasible.
Israeli intelligence and military experts take the opposite view. They believe the Anglo-German plan gives Iran the perfect cover for concealing its race for a nuclear bomb, a misgiving shared by the political and military establishments of the moderate Arab governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
It is their view that if Obama adopts this plan, Iran can be sure of arriving at a nuclear weapon capability by the end of 2010, after winning six clear months for moving forward.
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No agreement on Iran, Palestinians in Obama-Netanyahu talks18 May: US president Barak Obama stood by his demand for a Palestinian state while Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu continued to avoid this formula in their talks at the White House Monday, May 18, their first since both took office.
They agreed that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat not only to Israel and the US but a destabilizing factor for the world and the region. However, Obama said he is in the process of reaching out to Iran and is confident he can persuade its leaders that a nuclear bomb is not in their interest either. These talks can't go on forever," he said: "At the end of the year we'll see where we stand."
Netanyahu was less sanguine: "A nuclear-armed Iran which calls for Israel's destruction is unacceptable and would give terrorists a nuclear umbrella."
The US president called on Israel to stick to the road map as "ratified at Annapolis" (which Netanyahu has rejected) and stop settlement activity. The Palestinians must fight terror. Obama pledged US involvement in peace talks as a strong partner.
Netanyahu said he was ready to start talks with the Palestinians immediately. He wanted the Palestinians to rule themselves, but peace means they must recognize Israel as a Jewish state with the right to defend itself and live in security.
Both agreed that Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia should be constructively involved in the Israel-Palestinian peace track and do more to develop relations with Israel at the outset.
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Nasrallah places his Hizballah on war preparedness
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report18 May: During a videotaped speech haranguing Israel for staging threatening military maneuvers, Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah Monday night, May 18, ordered a call-up of reserves and placed his terrorist militia on war preparedness.
Our military sources reported that Hizballah was exploiting the alleged flight of suspected Israeli spies from Lebanon across the border into Israel to wind up border tension.
On May 18, Elie al-Hayek, 49, a mathematics professor from Qleia, who walks on crutches, fled to Israel with his wife and three children after being accused of spying for Israel along with 13 other Lebanese nationals. Hizballah's Al Manar TV claimed that two more suspected spies escaped Monday and several last week. Beirut has lodged a complaint with UNIFIL headquarters at Naqoura and demanded the escapees' extradition.
The spy mania gripping Beirut is exploited by the different parties campaigning for election on June 7.
Hizballah is it and the escape of suspects to inflame border tension, and lift its image as the true custodian for the south after government and UNIFIL forces proved incapable of guarding the Lebanese-Israeli border.-- May 30, 2009 10:21 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
More articles from Debka (Israeli News).
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US Treasury targets Syria-based al Qaeda facilitator for Iraq
DEBKAfile Special Report18 May: Damascus has ordered Syrian intelligence to permit Saad Uwayyid Ubayd Mujil al Shammari aka Abu Khalaf - named by Washington as the senior leader of al Qaeda's Syria-based support network – to step up the flow of suicide bombers into Iraq to 20-30 a month.
Abu Khalaf is a threat to "the safety of Coalition forces and the stability of Iraq," said Stuart Levey, US Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial intelligence.
In the early stages of its diplomatic exchanges with Washington, Syrian president Bashar Assad ordered the al Qaeda facilitator to slow down the traffic of foreign al Qaeda terrorists into Iraq. But when US presidential envoys started visiting Damascus on a regular footing, he lifted these restraints. As a result, al Qaeda reactivated its smuggling route for suicide bombers, weapons and explosives through the Euphrates River into Iraq's Anbar province.
In April, therefore, the US military death toll in Iraq shot up to 18 - double the March figure.
Special US Marine forces patrol the river by boat to intercept them. On May 1, a patrol was ambushed in Anbar by al Qaeda suicide killers, who left two US marines and a seaman dead after a firefight.
Assad is not expected to heed the renewed US sanctions over his backing for terrorists. Since last year, Abu Khalaf has also been recruiting North Africans for al Qaeda's Iraq networks.
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Diskin: Hamas will not give Mid East peace a chance, can be toppled
19 May: US president Barack Obama's planned Middle East initiative is a non-starter as long as the extremist Hamas rules the Gaza Strip, said Shin Bet (internal security agency) director Yuval Diskin Tuesday, May 19.Israel must decide once and for all whether to topple the Hamas regime, which can be done without conquering the Gaza Strip, in his view. Hamas will not let go of the Gaza Strip or its fundamentalist ideology, Diskin warned, while the Palestinian Authority is equally determined to hold on to the West Bank. But if elections were held on the West Bank today, Hamas would win.
Until Egyptian special forces clamped down on smuggling through Sinai, Hamas had managed in four months to smuggle 46 anti-air missiles, 330 mortars, 37 short-range ground missiles and 17 tons of explosives into Gaza. It is aiming for missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv, 63 kilometers away, although there is no evidence it has succeeded."
In Gaza City, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum forbade the Palestinian Authority to resume negotiations with the "Zionist enemy."
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May 19 briefs:
- US denies training "terrorists in Iraq's Kurdish region" as charged by Iran, accuses Tehran of meddling in Iraq.
- Abbas forms new Palestinian cabinet in Ramallah headed by Salam Fayyad.
It is recognized by foreign governments but not by most of Abbas' own Fatah party or Hamas.
- Brown unveils major UK parliamentary reform in light of scandal over MPs' income, allowances.
UK Commons speaker Michael Martin forced to resign.
- Ethiopian troops return to Somalia after Islamists seize towns from transitional government ---
- Israel's High Court orders government to extend equal support to orthodox and non-orthodox Jewish religious bodies ---
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Israeli air force hits Hamas-Gaza hard amid Lebanon border tensions
DEBKAfile Special Report
20 May: In response to a twin Qassam missile attack from Gaza Tuesday, May 19, the Israeli Air Force went into action early Wednesday against a range of Hamas positions in Rafah, Khan Younes, Zeitun and Tufah suburbs of Gaza city and, Deir Balakh.DEBKAfile's military sources also that several Sinai-Gaza smuggling tunnels, missile foundries and three Hamas command posts in Gaza City were struck in Israel's most extensive Gaza raid since its major offensive ended in January. The Palestinians reported casualties.
Tuesday night, the Palestinians fired a twin Qassam volley at Sderot. One missile injured a man and damaged his home.
That morning, Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin told the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee that Hamas has cut back on its attacks because it needed a respite for rearming and regrouping after the Israeli offensive. Hamas loosed the missiles to prove him wrong and show US president Barack Obama and the Israeli prime minister Netanyahu in Washington who really called the shots in the Gaza Strip.
After Sderot was hit, defense minister Ehud Barak and Netanyahu decided on powerful aerial retaliation.
This was all the more necessary as Hamas was deemed to be testing the new Israeli government's military reflexes and resolve. Another factor was the Hizballah leader's decision of May 18 to raise border tension with Israel ahead of Lebanon's June 7 election.
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US Vice President Biden consigned urgently to Beirut
20 May: The White House has urgently consigned vice president Joseph Biden to Beirut. He arrives May 22 to back the pro-Western government parties' bid for re-election against Iran's Hizballah and pro-Syrian factions, led by Gen. Michel Aoun. Lebanon's fall into Iranian-Syrian hands would be a damaging setback for Washington.
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Senators call on Obama to take into account the risks Israel runs from a peace accord
20 May: Seventy-six US senators have called on President Barack Obama to continue to support Israel and "take into account the risks it will face in any peace agreement," Tuesday, May 19, after meeting Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.In a letter signed by 76 of 100 senators, Obama is told that "without a doubt, our two governments will agree on some issues and disagree on others, but the United States' friendship with Israel requires that we work closely together as we recommit ourselves to our historic role of a trusted friend and active mediator.
"We must also continue to insist on the absolute Palestinian commitment to ending terrorist violence and to building the institutions necessary for a viable Palestinian state living side-by-side, in peace with the Jewish state of Israel," they wrote.
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Israel has no adequate interceptor for Iran's new long-range missile
DEBKAfile Special Report
20 May: DEBKAfile's military sources report that Israel, the US and Europe were floored by Iran's successful launch Wednesday, May 20, of a two-stage, solid-fueled 2,000-kilometer range missile, but most of all by the accuracy of its aim in destroying its target, as proudly claimed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.US missile tracking systems confirmed the Iranian President's boast of Sejil-2's precision. Sounds of concern came from the Obama administration.
Western military sources say Iran is at least two or three years ahead of Israel's missile defenses.The Arrow 2 anti-missile missile system is no match for the Sejil, while Arrow 3 which would be, is still under development. Until now, the Americans and Israelis were confident that any incoming Iranian missile would veer off target and be easily intercepted. This assumption was nullified by the Sejil-2 launch.
Iran's feat comes at a critical time for its efforts to build a nuclear arsenal of at least 10-12 nuclear warheads. It obviates the strategic value of any understandings reached by President Obama and prime minister Netanyahu on Iran's nuclear and missile programs.
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Israel marks annual Jerusalem Day21 May: At a national ceremony for the soldiers who died in the Battle for Jerusalem in 1967, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu declared at the Ammunition Hill Memorial site: "I say here what I said in the United States this week: Jerusalem will never be divided and it will remain forever under Israeli sovereignty."
President Shimon Peres said: "Jerusalem has never been the capital of any other nation except for the Jewish people."
Under foreign rule, Jews were denied access to their holy places. Today, members of all faiths are free to worship at their shrines in Israel's capital.
-- May 30, 2009 10:26 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
More articles from Debka. At least from Israeli news, we seem to be getting the straight upshot of what is happening in the middle east....unlike the news spins we get in USA.
___________________________________Lebanon's election at center of US-Russian tug of war
DEBKAfile Special report
22 May: Shortly after visiting US Vice President Joseph Biden stated in Beirut Friday, May 22, that his government would "evaluate the shape of its assistance program based on the policies of the new government," elected on June 7, Moscow announced that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov would visit Damascus and Beirut on May 23-25. He would be meeting Syrian president Bashar Assad as well as the Lebanese president Michel Suleiman.Biden urged "those who think about standing with the spoilers of peace not to miss this opportunity to walk away." This was an apparent reference to Hizballah and its pro-Syrian allies, who are fighting to displace the pro-Western coalition. DEBKAfile's Middle East sources report that Lavrov's trip is mean to convey that, unlike Washington, Moscow is well-connected on both sides of Lebanon's political spectrum, the pro-Western majority March 14 bloc fighting for survival as well as its challenger, the pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian Hizballah-led March 8 alliance.
Since the race between them is close, Biden was sent to Beirut to try and tip the scales with a promise of tanks, helicopters, drones and artillery.
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DEBKAfile lifts fog from the Obama-Netanyahu balance sheet
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
23 May: For the sake of warding off a surprise Israel attack on Iran, US president Barack Obama accepted a six-month deadline for testing Tehran by diplomacy - without pressing Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to endorse a Palestinian state. Both gave ground in their first ice-breaking encounter.Three days later, the White House rebuffed claims that Obama would use his June 4 speech to launch a new Middle East initiative? That tale was planted by Jordan's Abdullah II's advisers and picked up by Israel's often anti-Netanyahu media, although its source was dubious.
Once that misapprehension was removed, some of the real subjects of discussed emerged.
For instance, Obama did not demand the repartition of Jerusalem; neither was he keen to pursue the Palestinian issue at all at this time. Most of all, he was after space to engage in negotiation with Tehran without the threat of a surprise Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear sites hanging over the talks.
Obama and Netanyahu set up two working groups for continuous discussion between them:One, headed by US national security adviser James Jones, will track of progress in the bilateral US-Iranian negotiations and report back to the White House and Jerusalem.
The second team, headed by Middle East envoy George Mitchell, will be in charge of the Palestinian issue.
Netanyahu may find it hard to explain at home why he promised no Israeli surprise attacks against Iran for six months – even though major disruptions loom: Lebanon's pro-Western government may be overthrown by its June 7 election or thereafter, Iranian long-range missiles introduced to the Gaza Strip, Mahmoud Abbas' new Palestinian government in Ramallah collapse, and Tehran will continue its shock tactics.
To shift the focus, Netanyahu spoke passionately about Jerusalem, although its status was not under assault in his White House talks.
"The flag that flies over the Kotel is the Israeli flag... Our holy places, the Temple Mount -- will remain under Israeli sovereignty forever,” he told yeshiva students.
And “Jerusalem was always ours, will always be ours, and will never again be divided,” he vowed at the annual Jerusalem Day state ceremony on Ammunition Hill, Jerusalem, honoring the soldiers who fell in the Six-Day War in 1967.
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US army chief: Narrow space left for dialogue to stop Iran attaining nuke
24 May: Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, issued his most serious warning yet about the approach of a nuclear-armed Iran: "Most of us believe that "Iran is one to three years" from developing a nuclear weapon…depending on where they are right now. But they are moving closer, clearly, and they continue to do that." He told ABC's "This Week" Sunday, May 24. He indicated that an Iran could develop a nuke at any time from one to three years hence.At the same time, Mullen said a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities could have grave consequences – but so too would a nuclear-armed Iran.
In talks with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu on May 18, US president Barack Obama said the talks with Iran he is seeking cannot "go on forever" and agreed that at the end of the year, progress would be evaluated.
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May 24 Briefs
• Presidents of Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan hold first summit in Tehran on ways to end Pak/Afghan wars.
• Lavrov says Hamas should be part of Middle East peace process.
He calls on Assad, Meshaal in Damascus.
• Iranian presidential hopeful Rezai: I would stop Israel with "one strike."
• Lieberman: Israel's withdrawal to pre-1967 borders would not end conflict but transfer it to Israeli heartland.
• Demolition of outposts must be part of comprehensive approach.
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Israel to drill missile attack from many directions
25 May: Deputy defense minister Matan Vilnai outlined the nationwide civil defense exercise to be staged next week in a briefing to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Monday, May 25. Next Tuesday, he said, sirens would send the entire population heading for the nearest shelters or protected sites.Vilnai explained the exercise was configured on the presumption of a missile assault from three or four directions synchronized with large-scale terrorist attacks up and down the country. He stressed that this was no fantastic scenario divorced from reality but highly credible in the event of a war.
Drills conducted in the last two years and the lessons of the 2006 Lebanon war and 209 Gaza conflict had been factored into the coming exercise, said the deputy minister. In both, Israel's population had come under heavy missile bombardment.
Upgraded "gas masks" would be redistributed to the population later this year.
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North Korea test-fires two more short-range missiles amid escalating NE Asian tensions
26 May: Seoul reports North Korea test fired two short-range missiles Tuesday, May 26, its fourth and fifth since carrying out an underground nuclear test Monday. The test was unanimously condemned by the UN Security Council Monday night.DEBKAfile's military sources note that North Korea and Iran are closely and secretly coordinated on their military nuclear and missile programs. Most of the guidance technology which gave the long-range Seijl 2 surface missile tested by Iran Wednesday, May 20, its bull's-eye accuracy came from Pyongyang. Iran's long-range missile test was carried out less than a month after North Korea's own internationally condemned missile test launch on April 5. Tehran may also be expected to be not far behind its nuclear partner in conducting its own first nuclear test.
Cont. Next Column
-- May 30, 2009 11:06 PM ∞
laura Parker wrote:
Not surprisingly, therefore, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a news conference Monday, May 25, that while all international issues are open for discussion, "Iran's nuclear issue is closed."
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Netanyahu's backing for outpost removals unrelated to his Iran deal with Obama
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report26 May: A high-ranking Israeli delegation is to meet US officials in London with a defense ministry plan for evacuating some 24 unauthorized outposts on the West Bank. This plan was prepared ahead of defense minister Ehud Barak's visit to Washington next week and backed solidly by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman.
The first 10 warnings of impending demolitions were distributed Monday, May 25. They dropped Netanyahu in hot water in his own Likud faction.
To persuade the critics, Netanyahu implied without saying so outright that he had won US backing or cooperation for an Israeli offensive against Iran and that the price tag was the removal of West Bank outposts.He stressed the importance of "our relations with the United States" for "the future of the state."
This implied link was disingenuous since DEBKAfile's Washington sources contradict Netanyahu's interpretation of his understanding with US president Barack Obama about the need to prevent Iran from attaining a nuclear capability. This understanding, they say, was confined purely to diplomatic efforts (for which the two leaders set a six-month limit). A unilateral military attack by Israel was no part of it. In fact, an Israeli strike would spark a serious crisis between Jerusalem and Washington.The bottom line here, say DEBKAfile's military sources, is that however many outposts are evacuated, whether authorized or not, it will not bring the Obama administration around to backing an Israeli strike against Iran.
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First Russian warships enter Persian Gulf ports
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report26 May: Russian warships are due to call Wednesday, May 27, at the Bahrain port of Manama, seat of the US Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf, DEBKAfile's military sources reveal. They will be following in the wake of the Russian vessels docked at the Omani port of Salalah, the first to avail themselves of facilities at Gulf ports.
Their arrival is fully coordinated between the Russian and Iranian naval commands.
According to our sources, this is the first time a Russian flotilla will have taken on provisions and fuel at the same Gulf ports which services the US Navy. Moscow has thus gained its first maritime foothold in the Persian Gulf.
Our military analysts find Russia and Iran seizing the moment to take advantage of two developments:
1. President Obama quietly reduced the number of US warships maintained in the Gulf to its lowest level in two years to generate a positive atmosphere for the coming US dialogue with Tehran. Not a single US aircraft carrier is anywhere in the Gulf region.2. Monday, May 25, President Nicolas Sarkozy inaugurated France's first naval facility in the Gulf in Abu Dhabi. Russian and Iranian policy-makers see no reason why if Paris can set up a military presence, Moscow can't.
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North Korea warns South of military strike, no longer bound by 1953 Truce27 May: Pyongyang announced early Wednesday, May 27, that its withdrawal from the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 means that "the Korean peninsulas will go back to a state of war." Thousands of US troops are deployed in the buffer zone since the war ended.
US spy planes reported that the plutonium separation plant at Yongbyon had been reactivated.
North Korea repeated that Seoul's decision to joint the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative was tantamount to a declaration of war. "Any hostile acts against our republic, including the stopping and searching of our peaceful vessels... will face an immediate and strong military strike in response," the North Korean statement said.Firing another short-range missile in Japan's direction, its sixth since conducting a nuclear test Monday, May 25, Pyongyang said it could not guarantee the safety of shipping off its west coast. The test was unanimously condemned by the UN Security Council.
The White House then announced that US president Barack Obama and South Korean president Lee Myung-bak and Japanese prime minister Taro Aso had agreed to work together to support the Security Council resolution with concrete measures to curtail North Korea's nuclear and missile activities.
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May 27 Briefs:• West Bank rabbis call on Israeli soldiers and police to defy orders to evacuate settlements.
• Police question FM Lieberman again on suspicion of money laundering and obstructing their inquiry.
• French Egyptian Culture Minister appointed head of UNESCO apologizes for anti-Israel remarks.
• Israel's unemployed figure rises to 228,000 – 7.6 pc.
• Moscow announces undefined "preventive measures" after North Korean nuclear test.
• High terror alert declared in Islamabad, Karachi, Rawalpindi after massive bomb blast kills at least 40 in Lahore, e. Pakistan.
Pakistan claims capture of two assailants.
Interior minister said attack reprisal for Pakistani military Swat operation.
Suicide bomber flattened 15 buildings, damaging ISI and police station in city center.
Attackers opened fire on police from wrecked station.
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Abbas will find Obama puts Syrian peace track ahead of Palestinians
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report28 May: Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas will put before US president Barack Obama when they meet at the White House Thursday, May 28 a thick sheaf of pre-conditions for talks with Israel, primarily heavy US pressure to force the Netanyahu government to stop all construction activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem and remove 200 West Bank roadblocks.
US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has come forward to declare that the president objects to any form of Israeli settlement activity whether for "natural growth" or any other purpose.
But for now, the administration is more interested in advancing the Syrian than the Palestinian peace track.
In any case, Obama is advised by his Middle East envoy George Mitchell that focusing on the Palestinian issue in its present strife-ridden state would be a waste of time and better go for the Syrian track. He and his aides are planning an early visit to Damascus to test the ground for resumed peace talks.
-- May 30, 2009 11:11 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger and All,
I think Debka's news articles are very informative. Now we know what is happening diplomaticly between USA, Israel, Syria, Egypt, Saudia Arabia, Moscow, France. About the only ones not mentioned is England.
I actually wondered why the Iranian-American news journalist had been freed. Now we know the stiff price America had to agree to pay to get her back. What I am wondering is why 4 to 1 in being freed. Hostages for Hostages...
Moscow had now placed their navy in the Pervian Gulf. Make no mistake about this, they are acting in coordination with Iran. The fact that USA does not have as single aircraft carrier in the Gulf is unbelievable.
Add to this that Obama has just gotten an education on Syria and their support of terrorism to undermine Iraq and Lebanon is also unsettling.
Then there is Obama's policy to place pressure on Israel to keep them from attacking Iran....so much so, that Israel has to make deals with Saudia Arabia and Egypt to get military backing is also interesting.
Then, of course we have the situation with North Korea. Do any of us believe that North Korea's actions have nothing to do with Iran?
I am starting to question Obama's gullibility??. Before, (without facts) I only wondered about it. These items are incredible. Most of these news stories have not made their way into mainstream USA press at all. The news media is unbelievable.
What do the rest of you think?.
Laura Parker
-- May 30, 2009 11:50 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
An article from the Washington Post that I thought I would share with you about our Secretary of Defense: Mr. Gates. I found it interesting. I think you might too.
---------------------------
A Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars
Defense Secretary Is Reorienting the Military to Meet U.S. Troops' Needs NowBy Greg JaffeWashington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 15, 2009On a rainy night in March, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates traveled to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware to witness the military's ritual for welcoming home its war dead.
In a small building next to the tarmac, an officer briefed the defense secretary on the four deceased troops arriving that evening. They had been driving along a rutted road near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, when their Humvee hit a powerful roadside bomb.
Gates flashed with anger, according to people with him that day. He had spent most of his tenure in the Pentagon pushing to replace Humvees in Afghanistan and Iraq with Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, built to withstand such blasts. "Find out why they hadn't gotten their goddamn MRAPs yet," he snapped at his staff.Clad in the black suit he had worn to work that morning in the Pentagon, Gates climbed into the cargo hold of the white 747 bearing the remains. From the ground, troops could see the defense secretary as he knelt, alone, by the flag-draped transfer cases. Five minutes passed.
Then Gates, a small man with white hair neatly combed across his head, appeared in the plane's door and summoned the chaplain and the honor guard to begin the 17-minute welcome-home ritual.A few days later, he was asked at a Pentagon news conference if he would talk about his visit. He started to answer the question but stopped. "Actually, no," he said. "I will tell you it was very difficult."
Gates's experience at Dover offers a window into what is driving him as he seeks to remake Washington's biggest and most ponderous bureaucracy. For decades, the Pentagon's focus has been on building expensive, high-tech weapons programs for conventional wars. Gates has embarked on an ambitious effort to force the department to focus more of its energy on developing arms and equipment that can help troops on the ground as they battle insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq.
His push to refocus the department comes as the war in Afghanistan appears in stalemate and violence against U.S. troops and Afghan forces is on the rise. In neighboring Pakistan, where the Taliban and al-Qaeda have carved out a haven from which they can launch attacks on U.S. troops, the government's hold on power throughout the country has grown shakier.
Last week, Gates fired the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan. The new commanders will be responsible for fighting the war and implementing President Obama's new strategy. Gates sees his job as making sure they have the tools they need.An Emphasis on Now
The deteriorating conditions in the two countries seem to have sharpened the secretary's sense of urgency. His 2010 defense budget, introduced this month, proposes to cut or curtail a spate of large-scale weapons programs.
"Listening to our troops and commanders, unvarnished and unscripted, has from the moment I took this job been the greatest single source of ideas on what the department needs to do," he told lawmakers Wednesday. When some lawmakers questioned whether he had done the rigorous analysis to justify his budget cuts, Gates responded in his flat Kansas twang that the Pentagon is "drowning in analysis." Most of the changes he'd made were "kind of no-brainers," he said. Gates declined to be interviewed for this article.A Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars
Gates's critics, including some active-duty generals and many of the senior officials he has fired, say his intense focus on Afghanistan and Iraq threatens to turn the vaunted U.S. military into an army of occupiers and nation-builders. "I am sure the North Koreans fear the MRAP and the Iranians are cringing in their boots about the threat from our stability forces," former Air Force secretary Michael W. Wynne, who was dismissed last year, wrote in an online column. "Our national interests are being reduced to becoming the armed custodians in two nations, Afghanistan and Iraq."
Last year, the four-star generals who run the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps formally "non-concurred" with the classified version of Gates's National Defense Strategy, which called for "taking additional, acceptable risk" in the area of conventional war so that the military could improve its ability to fight irregular wars. Gates met with all of the chiefs to listen to their objections. He then concluded that their concerns were "not compelling," said a senior Pentagon official involved in the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The defense secretary has since described the strategy document as the foundation for the shift he's making in the Pentagon.When He Arrived
Gates, who is 65, didn't come to the Pentagon to make major changes. With only two years left in George W. Bush's presidency, his mandate was a narrow one: fix the war in Iraq. Arriving from the presidency of Texas A&M University, Gates brought no aides with him, choosing to retain even the confidential assistant and chief of staff to his predecessor, Donald H. Rumsfeld.
Even Gates's detractors concede that he is a ruthlessly effective manager of the Pentagon bureaucracy. He demands that all briefing slides from his staff and military commanders reach his office the day before the meeting in which they will be discussed. With the slides in hand, he plots how he wants to drive the discussion. If slides arrive after the deadline, the meeting will be canceled or postponed, Pentagon officials said.In contrast with Rumsfeld, who allowed debates over weapons programs to drag on for months or years, Gates sets deadlines of weeks or even days. Meetings with top generals rarely run more than 45 minutes. "The natural propensity of a bureaucracy is not to decide," he has often said. "It will just chew the cud until there is no taste at all."
Gates also has moved quickly to demand accountability for mistakes from his senior leadership. Just three months into his tenure, he fired Army Secretary Francis J. Harvey after articles in The Washington Post exposed appalling living conditions at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. Harvey wasn't dismissed for the conditions at the hospital, defense officials said. Gates relieved him for failing to acknowledge the severity of the problems and fix them swiftly.
The Army secretary was visiting troops at Fort Benning, Ga., when he got an unexpected call from Gates's chief of staff ordering him to return immediately to the Pentagon. After Gates told him that he was fired, Harvey tried to argue his case, insisting that Gates and his staff had approved every move he had made in response to the failures at the hospital.
Gates, who colleagues describe as consistent and self-controlled, often grows quiet when he disagrees with someone. "It was like arguing with a stone," Harvey recalled. "The meeting lasted maybe 90 seconds."
A few days later, Gates asked through an intermediary if he could attend the goodbye ceremony that the Army was holding for Harvey. It was Gates's attempt to show respect for the office, said a defense official. Harvey sent word back that Gates wasn't welcome. "It was astounding to me that he'd even ask," Harvey recalled.The Secretary's Vision
Since the early days of his tenure, Gates's vision for remaking the military has been shaped more by the daily frustrations of running the vast Pentagon bureaucracy than grand ideas about future war. Those frustrations came to a head in early 2008 when commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan were clamoring for more intelligence equipment, particularly Predator unmanned surveillance aircraft.
The field commanders estimated that they needed more than 40 Predator combat air patrols in the two war zones, defense officials said. At the time, the Air Force was able to maintain 12. When Gates asked the Air Force to find more surveillance planes, senior officials replied that they could provide four more patrols. Some Air Force officials also questioned whether the wartime commanders needed so many surveillance planes.
A Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars
"The bureaucracy's first impulse was to deny that the demand really existed," said Brad Berkson, who served as director of program analysis and evaluation in the defense secretary's office.
In the weeks that followed, Gates pulled together a special task force, made up of his immediate staff and some military officers, to find more surveillance planes, both manned and unmanned. "We literally counted every tail in the fleet," said one Pentagon official involved in the effort. The results were stunning: Less than 25 percent of the military's arsenal of surveillance aircraft, which included Air Force Predators, Army Shadows and Navy P-3 Orion planes, was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, the task force found.
The deficiencies in Iraq and Afghanistan were a result of a shortage of Air Force control stations, from which pilots fly the unmanned aircraft. The Air Force also hadn't trained enough pilots to operate all of the Predators in its rapidly expanding arsenal.
Gates's team went to extreme lengths to get more hours out of the available ground control stations and pilots. The task force arranged for experienced pilots to use stations normally set aside for training to fly combat missions during off hours. Because the Predators are controlled using satellite links, pilots can operate aircraft flying in Afghanistan and Iraq from bases in the United States.The Air Force also lost a few hours of flying time each day because Predator pilots controlling planes from Creech Air Force Base, Nev., had to make an hour-long drive into town to buy lunch, visit the bank or pick up their children from day care. Gates set aside money to build a cafeteria, child-care facilities and other amenities at Creech. "We decided the pilots' time was extremely valuable," Berkson said. "We didn't even want them to have to stand in line at the bank."
Some Air Force officials complained bitterly that the defense secretary's staffers were micromanaging commanders at Creech. In one case, a member of Gates's staff called one of the base's commanders to ask him why his pilots were working shorter hours than Army pilots flying similar unmanned aircraft. "I was having to justify my organization down to the gnat's ass just about every week," an Air Force officer recalled, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to talk freely about his superiors. "It became a distraction."
Results on Predators
By early 2009, the task force's efforts had produced results: The number of U.S. military Predators in the air over Afghanistan and Iraq had increased almost three-fold, to 31 from 12. In a speech last year at Maxwell Air Force Base in Montgomery, Ala., Gates compared the effort to "pulling teeth."
In the months since he was asked by Obama to stay on as defense secretary as the Cabinet's lone holdover, Gates's top priority has been incorporating the lessons of the task force and similar initiatives into the 2010 defense budget. "His engagement on this budget has been orders of magnitude greater than any other secretary of defense that I can recall," said Adm. Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview. "There is a certainty about what he wants, and you can't get around it."
The current budget, for example, sets aside $2 billion so the Air Force will be able to keep as many as 50 unmanned surveillance planes in the air by 2011. Gates also carved out $500 million to increase the number of helicopters in Afghanistan and Iraq, which have been in short supply since 2003. As with the Predators, the helicopter shortfall was caused by a lack of crews to maintain and fly the aircraft. The Pentagon has 6,000 helicopters in its fleet, but about 800 of them are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, Mullen said.'We . . . Must Do Better'
Last week, Gates flew to Afghanistan, where he asked for the resignation of the top American general in charge of the war. He had chosen Gen. David D. McKiernan for the post 11 months earlier but had become convinced that a new commander was needed to arrest the decline in the country. "We can and must do better," he later told reporters at a Pentagon news conference.
During his trip, Gates flew to a sprawling American base being built in southern Afghanistan to accommodate thousands of new U.S. troops now arriving in the country. He met four Marines who showed him their charred and dented MRAP. A few days earlier, as they patrolled the desert surrounding the base, a roadside bomb had detonated under the vehicle.
One of the Marines inside had broken his arm. The other three emerged with minor scratches and bruises.Gates looked pleased. He shook their hands, struggled to make small talk and thanked them for their service.
-- May 31, 2009 1:04 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Some older articles directly on Iraq and Iran from Debka (Israeli News). I of course, had not read them until now.
------------------------Iran canceled air show upon Russian warning of Israeli plan to destroy all 140 warplanes
24 April: DEBKAfile's Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that Moscow warned Tehran Friday April 17 that Israel was planning to destroy all of its 140 fighter-bombers concentrated at the Mehr-Abad Air Force base for an air show over Tehran on Iran's Army Day the following day. The entire fleet was accordingly removed to remote bases and the display cancelled.
In the first week of April, Tehran announced it would stage its biggest air show ever to dramatize a ceremonial military parade in the capital on April 18. Iran would show the world that it is capable of fighting off an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. Instead, only four aircraft flew over the saluting stand. Iranian media explained that the big show was cancelled due to "bad weather and poor visibility," when in fact Tehran basked in warm and sunny weather.
Moscow had informed the Iranians that its spy satellites and intelligence sources had picked up preparations at Israeli Air Force bases to destroy the 140 warplanes, the bulk of the Iranian air force, on the ground the night before the display, leaving its nuclear sites without aerial defense. A similar operation wiped out the entire Egyptian air fleet in the early hours of the 1967 war.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Al Qaeda's roars back in Iraq against double target: US and Iranians25 April: Hillary Clinton said in Baghdad Saturday, April 25, that the wave of suicide killings which accounted for more than 250 lives this month were "a tragic signal that Iraq was on the right path." She said there would be no delay in the pullout of US troops from Iraq's main cities.
Many of the victims were Iranian pilgrims visiting Shiite shrines.
Friday, US Middle East commander Gen. David Petraeus told a House panel in Washington that attacks in Iraq will continue for some time and they may be the work of a network of foreign fighters from Tunisia.
According to DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources, Al Qaeda is attempting a comeback in Iraq moving reinforcements in long-distance from its Maghreb (North African) branch.
By targeting Shiites and Iranian pilgrims, Osama bin Laden is warning Tehran and Washington that their unfolding bid to bracket their resources together for ending the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflicts will precipitate fresh trouble not only in those arenas, but also in Iraq.
Al Qaeda's recovery in Iraq has been boosted by the 100,000 commanders and fighters of the Awakening Councils, the strong arm of the US surge strategy for crushing al Qaeda and Iraqi insurgents, having dropped out of the war. They are protesting mass detentions of their members on the orders of
Shiite prime minister Nouri al-Maliki as US forces prepare to leave Iraq's main cities.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unknown vessel destroys another Iranian arms ship bound for Gaza26 April:
An Iranian ship transporting arms to the Gaza Strip was destroyed off the Sudanese coast in the Red Sea last week, the Egyptian newspaper Al-Usbu (The Week) reported on Sunday. An unidentified warship launched missiles at the ship, sinking it with its crew and cargo. Quoting anonymous sources, the newspaper suspected Israeli or American forces were responsible for the attack.
The same sources said the ship was on course to dock in Sudan, where the weapons would be unloaded and eventually shipped to Gaza through Egypt.
Neither Iran, Israel, or the United States has commented.
-- May 31, 2009 1:18 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Two more disturbing articles from Debka News.
-----------------NATO member Turkey and Syria hold first joint military exercise
DEBKAfile Special Report26 April: The joint Turkish-Syrian land exercise backed begins on their border Monday, April 27, and lasts three days. DEBKAfile's military sources stress that it is the first joint military maneuver any NATO member, including Turkey, has ever carried out with Syria. Washington's approval underscores its new policy of boosting the strength of the Syrian army as partner in a strong a three-way military coalition with Turkey and Lebanon.
It comes only four days after the Obama administration approved a large Turkish arms sale to the Lebanese army assigning Turkish military instructors to train Lebanese army units (half of whose personnel are Shiites sympathetic to Hizballah.)
The Obama administration's actions took place without informing Israel or taking into account its vital security interests. Israel's top security echelons are concerned and criticize the new Netanyahu government for taking too long to respond to the dire security setbacks piling up around its borders. They cannot wait until the prime minister meets Obama in the coming month. By then, he will be confronted with some unpalatable accomplished facts.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
April 26 Brief:
- Palestinian captured for axe-murder of an Israeli boy, and wounding a second, at Bat-Ayin near Hebron on April 2. He confessed to a religious urge to become a shahid by murdering Israeli youths.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Turkish-Syria exercise prompts Israeli review of sophisticated arms sales to Ankara
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
27 April: Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak commented Monday, April 27, that Turkey's decision to hold three days of military maneuvers with Syria was "disturbing."And that is not all. Monday or Tuesday the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers signed a protocol for cooperation in the defense industry. The two events were major landmarks in the continuing shrinkage of the old military and trading ties between Turkey and Israel. In 2009, Ankara cut those ties to $2.2 billion and expanded its trade with Syria to $2.6 billion.
Israel is hastening to slash its military exchanges with Turkey to prevent he leakage of military secrets to an avowed Arab enemy. Construction is discontinued on an Israeli Mark 3 Chariot plant in Turkey after Ankara began defaulting on payments for military purchases and other contracts. The sale of Israel's world class unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) has been stopped and its military ties with Turkey dating from the 1960s cut down sharply.
-- May 31, 2009 1:29 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Sorry about that. It's the top article and the last article that I wanted you to view.
Laura Parker
-- May 31, 2009 1:35 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Some more articles from Debka, that could be of some interest.
-----------------------US envoy arrives in Middle East to allay fears of Arab rulers
DEBKAfile Exclusive
28 April: Tuesday, April 28, US envoy Dennis Ross set out on an extensive tour for pouring oil on troubled waters in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. He is accompanied by the deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, Lt. Gen. John R. Allen, and National Security Council official Puneet Talwar.Like secretary of state Hillary Clinton, who promised in Beirut this week that the US was not selling Lebanon out by dealing with Syria, Ross will try and reassure America's Arab friends that Washington's new ties of friendship and strategic cooperation with Tehran will not be at their expense.
DEBKAfile's sources ask how much leverage against Iran's drive for a nuclear bomb will be left to Washington when the US becomes dependent on Tehran for its war supplies to Afghanistan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
April 28 Briefs:
- Pakistan reports its jets bombing Taliban bases in Buner district near capital in apparently widening counter-offensive.
- British jury acquits three men charged with conspiracy in 7/7 London suicide attacks.
The three Muslims from Leeds were the only bombing accomplices ever brought to trial.
- The sole surviving Mumbai bomber is proved over 20 and eligible for trial.
If convicted he faces death for 170 murders.
- Two Christian women have throats slit in Kirkuk, N. Iraq.
- Mexico protests ultra-religious Israeli health minister's proposal to rename swine flu Mexican flu.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Hariri tribunal self-destructs, frees 4 key Lebanese suspects. Assad wins after all29 April: DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report that, by setting the key witnesses, four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals, free, the pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen Wednesday, April 29, effectively scrapped the international tribunal's mission to prosecute the murderers of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
The four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals, now under "under strict security for their own safety," were held in custody for four years on suspicion of complicity in the 2005 Hariri murder in close alignment with Syrian military intelligence, which then ruled Beirut, and with figures close to Syrian president Bashar Assad.
Their release "for lack of sufficient evidence", according to Fransen, rewarded Assad for the extraordinary efforts he made to quash the international legal proceedings for fear of compromising his close circle in one of the most outrageous political crimes in recent Middle East history.
The tribunal was also briefed to prosecute a series of high-profile political assassinations in Lebanon after the Hariri murder, for which Damascus was also blamed.
Our counter-terror sources note that the chance of ever bringing any of these assassins to justice has just been reduced to zero by the international judge's action. He has cut the main sources of evidence leading to the culprits in Damascus.
A major barrier to Bashar Assad's international rehabilitation has been removed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Second Turkish affront to Israel in a week29 April: Turkey's army chief Gen. Ilker Basburg brushed off the Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak's comment that the joint Turkish-Syrian military exercise was "disturbing."
Barak referred to the first exercise Turkey, Israel's longstanding military ally and NATO member, had ever staged with an Arab nation, Israel's avowed foe Syria. Gen. Basbug said it was only a border exercise, small-scale and "none of anybody's business."
"Why would it concern Israel? We will not ask for permission from anybody else [to conduct such exercises], he said."
DEBKAfile's military sources, who first broke the story about the maneuver earlier this week, noted that the Turkish general made a point of mentioning his "extensive talks with the visiting US Chief of General Staff" and their four-hour long "exchange of views on a range of issues."
This confirmed DEBKAfile's earlier report that the Turkish-Syrian exercise had received Washington's nod.
-- May 31, 2009 1:49 AM ∞
Andy wrote:
ITS OFFICIAL FOLKS!! The Iraqi Dinar is coming in at $3.98!!!!!!!!
-- May 31, 2009 4:35 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
From what official source did you obtain this number from? Did Al-Malaki or Shabibbi state this somewhere? The CBI still shows a rate of 1170.
Pardon my skepticism but the HCL has not been passed yet; neither has the investment law. Article VII has not been lifted.
I am uncertain where you are getting your information but I assure you it is not "official". Are you a pumper? Usually pumpers are dealers.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 1, 2009 10:35 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Can't talk now.......I'm off to Bali and the beautiful beaches!!
-- June 1, 2009 11:54 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I have questions for speculation. Why would Saudia Arabia allow Russian warships to anchor in one of its ports in the Persian Gulf?.
In addition, why would Saudia Arabia then cooperate with Israel to use it's lands for an attack on Irans nuclear sites?.
I am wondering if Saudia Arabia thinks that USA would not fight to protect their country and therefore, Saudia Arabia has turned to Russia for protection from Iran?.
Laura Parker
-- June 1, 2009 4:22 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
Nope I am not a dealer, you might want to take a look at http://www.ktfmissions.com
We are very close to the RV being announced.
-- June 1, 2009 6:34 PM ∞
David wrote:
C'mon, Andy. You can't do that and expect to be taken seriously. Even with a follow-up post. No info, no background, but you do provide a link to a Christian forum that has disabled any registration so one can't even log in and read any posts, and on top of that, there's a click advert. that takes you to a place to buy dinar.
You're selling something, man. We don't trust you.
Put up or shut up.
David
-- June 1, 2009 6:53 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
I want proof from a reliable source stating that the dinar is to revalue at over $3.00 per dinar. I looked at the link you provided and it appears what you are selling is salvation.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 1, 2009 10:46 PM ∞
cornishboy wrote:
looks like a new note out on the cbi site.http://www.cbi.iq/index2.htm
-- June 2, 2009 6:08 AM ∞
Andy wrote:
Hey David get a clue man. I can guarantee you I am not selling anything and to view the forum you need to register. All of you people can keep thinking negative thoughts about the RV and expect to receive negative things in your lives. When the RV does happen, think of me saying I told you so. Best of luck to you all.
-- June 2, 2009 9:39 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
No one is doubting the possibility of a significant alteration ot the Dinars exchange rate. In my view, there are some oustanding issues (namely, Hydro Carbon Legislation) that must be addressed before this change occurs.
I think our point to you is that you make an unsubstantiated claim that "ITS OFFICIAL FOLKS!! The Iraqi Dinar is coming in at $3.98!!!!!!!!" You were asked point blank to provide official documentation to support you're claim.
Instead, you post a link to a religious organization. The link has nothing to do with our investments in Dinar. I am still uncertain why you posted in the first place.
I am in agreement with David; produce the official documentation stating that 1 Dinar is worth $3.86 usd. If you cannot document such a claim please do not post it.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 2, 2009 12:16 PM ∞
RON wrote:
hi dinar train gang,i hope all are well.keep up the good work.GOD BLESS US ALL
-- June 2, 2009 12:26 PM ∞
David wrote:
Andy -
I TRIED to get a clue. I TRIED to register. The ability to register has been DISABLED (which is what I said in my post). How can I follow up on anything you have said? Can't. You are blowing smoke. Ha, ha, ha. Good one. Whew, man, you really got us on that one. When I can breathe again after laughing so hard, I'll get back to watching for real information on the dinar.
DR
-- June 2, 2009 12:40 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
Rob, the website I posted has very knowledgeable people on it. There are people that have inside sources regarding the RV and I am strictly going by them. I also have a source confirming who is located in Texas. I have also personally talked to Ali who is the owner of Dinar Trade. We are very close to the RV happening and it doesn't help when you have people being negative nancys about the whole situation.
-- June 2, 2009 12:44 PM ∞
David wrote:
Cornishboy -
What are you talking about? There's nothing on the CBI site that says anything about a new note. The last update on their site was January 6, 2009.
David
-- June 2, 2009 12:47 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
Grow up David. You obviously have no idea on how to use the internet if you couldn't figure out how to register because my brother was able to register this morning. Good luck in life. :)
-- June 2, 2009 12:47 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Looks like we're in a real conundrum regarding the Dinar RV....guess I'll call off my trip to Bali until we find out for sure.....I hear the RV is soooooon!
-- June 2, 2009 12:55 PM ∞
David wrote:
Andy -
I know a farmer in Kansas who says that the price of canned corn is going to be $167.57/can by the end of June! His name is Hank. He totally OWNS his farm! So now he's going to sell me a 100,000 cans of corn for only 1.29 each, and I'll make a killing at the end of the month. You can do it, too. I talked to some other guys who are real experts on corn, and they say Hank is right. So follow this link to Hank's website - that's where all these experts are that I've talked to are. Especially this one guy who really knows a lot. He's in - are you ready for this? - Nebraska! They'll tell you it's going to happen, just like Hank said. And don't you go thinking negative thoughts about this, either. If you do, I'll really get to laugh at you and say I told you so when I'm totally rich! Here's the link: cornforumsfordisingenuousguyswhosaytheyarechristianssoyouwilltrustthem.com
Good luck to you, my friend!
David
-- June 2, 2009 1:01 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
ya because corn and currency are almost the same thing. haha you truly are an idiot.
-- June 2, 2009 1:04 PM ∞
David wrote:
All -
Actually, this was fun. We haven't had a goofball like Andy drop in for a while, and there have been several posts in just a short time. That hasn't happened in...
David-- June 2, 2009 1:11 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Andy,
Regardless of your contacts they are not officials at the CBI or within the GoI. With all due respect to Ali his time table for a revaluation is mere another person's opinion.
Instead of thinking me a "negative nancy" think of me as a realist. If the United Nations releases Iraq from Article VII and if Hydro Carobon legislation is passed I will still be cautiously optomistic about the possiblitly of a significant change in the dinars exchange rate.
In my view, Iraq cannot radically alter its exchange rate until their oil reserves are monetized (petro-dinars). I think we have at least until Jan of 2010 and for parlimentary elections befor the HCL will be considered. On this note, I reserve the right to be wrong.
All the hype you brought to this forum by claiming a revaluation of $3.86 has happened is Ali's way to sell some more dinars.
When you have verifible facts then I will listen with more of an attentive ear.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 2, 2009 4:40 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
Wow we have another rumor, and this time "it's official".
Reminds me about the Monty Pythons scetch, ...The Department of Funny Walk.
When something is "official", it means that the authority that controls the item, are making a statement.
The only official statement about Indias defense will come from Indias Dep of Defense.
The only official statement regarding Russias fiscal budget expenses, will come from the Russian Finance Dep.
The ONLY authority that physically and legally CAN make an "official" statement with regards to the Iraqi Dinar, is the Central Bank of Iraq.
Rest is speculation, and rumors.
A speculator, will openly tell that the source is not the "official" source, but it can however be based on a compilation of data gathered on this particular subject. A legit analysis can most often be derived from such activity.
A speculation, or an analysis derived from it, have the inherent integrity in it, that it will reveal the sources, and the logic behind the analysis.
A rumor, is a message or communication in where the originator is unknown or undisclosed.
The fun part kicks in when the originator, or bearer of the rumor, insist that it is "official", while at the same time, when people are looking at the real official site, can find no trace of the claim that the bearer of the rumor is claiming to be true.
It's even more fun when the poster of the rumor is trying to be right about it.
India's Defence Dep, Russia's Finance Dep and Iraq's Central Bank have hereby moved to a web page that only Andys brother can log onto.
It's hereby "official".
Andy, you really don't have a clue...right???
What you're really good in, is calling people idiots, ....isn't it so???.
The problem with stupid people is that they don't have a perception above their own IQ range....and therefore they believe that all other people are as stupid as they are.
They keep being right about it, and ...this is the fun part...don't have a clue that they are undressed... they continue to monkey around to the amuzement of others.
Even when you show them, they don't see,....you're trying to be helpful and point out to them where to look.......but they are like dogs......you point to the moon but all they see is the finger.
-- June 2, 2009 11:07 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
The United Nations is scheduled to discuss the lifting of sanctions of Iraq; specifically, article VII. Sadly, the Kuwaiti's do not believe the GoI have paid enough in war reparations.
Iraq and Kuwait are now in a diplomatic bicker over payment of war reparations. According to www.noozz.com; "Kuwaiti lawmakers on Tuesday urged the government to recall the emirate's ambassador from Baghdad in protest at "attacks" by Iraqi MPs and demands to halt the payment of reparations". In contrast, www.ninanews.com has the following comment from Iraqi MP Zahra al-Hashimi of the Fadhila Bloc pointed out that negotiations between Iraq and Kuwait are "useless, because Kuwait is obstinate and aims at weakening Iraq."
In my view, I think this is a battle Kuwait will loose. It appears that the United States is intent on Iraq emerging from Article VII. If Iraq does emerge from Article VII it will lend the Dinar to internationally convertibility.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 3, 2009 10:18 AM ∞
David wrote:
Roger -
Hey, back off on Andy, man. I'm the guy he called an idiot, and I stand by it. If by "idiot" he means I'm someone who checks up on the paltry amount of evidence he gives to support his claims, and then who challenges him because there's nothing of substance actually there and then he is reduced to calling me a name, well, then I gladly and proudly bear the title, "Idiot." Andy has effectively appropriated a new term for what we used to call "reasonable" or "principled" or "discerning" or "wise" or "responsible."
So, as we sit here in a circle in our "Dinar Therapy" session, I have this confession to make:
My dear fellow dinar investors here on the T&B forum: I am an Idiot. It makes me feel so much better to get that off my chest, and to look around the room here and see so many other Idiots. It's good to be here. This is indeed good company.
David-the-Idiot
-- June 3, 2009 12:53 PM ∞
Valerio wrote:
All,
I am also an idiot. I have been an idiot for 45 years. Since admitting I have this disease I have been keeping it under control, except occassonally I loose it and go on a binge thinking I know everything. I want to thank you all for your support. With your help I will continue with my recovery efforts.
-- June 4, 2009 12:32 AM ∞
RON wrote:
Hi dinar train gang,I also am an idiot,but by the grace of GOD I have a way out.Keep up the good work.GOD BLESS US ALL.
-- June 4, 2009 9:37 AM ∞
NellyB wrote:
Andy wrote:
Hi everyone, the rate has been set at $5.62 is what I am hearing and for everyone to say that it wont be that high where is your logic? They wont set it at 33 cents that is way too low it wouldnt do anything for their economy. When this happened to Kuwait in 1990 their currency was set at $7 so it is definetly possible.
-- May 30, 2009 3:29 PM ∞
Andy wrote:
ITS OFFICIAL FOLKS!! The Iraqi Dinar is coming in at $3.98!!!!!!!!
-- May 31, 2009 4:35 PM ∞
...and what will the 'official' rate be tomorrow Andy?
I for one would rather be a negative nancy than a deluded speculator sucked in by dealer hype. Come up with some hard evidence to support your 'officical' statement before you come in here and start slinging insults at people who have an opinion, based on years of research into the Dinar and the Iraqi economy, that differs from your own.
People make poor investment decisions based on poor information. I suggest to you that you are passing on misinformation spun by a dealer to sell Dinar. If a dealer knew his stock was going to massively increase in value overnight would he be trying to offload it to investors?
-- June 4, 2009 6:56 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Nelly,
I am with you on the re-value speculation. But it sure would be nice.....
Laura Parker
-- June 5, 2009 1:53 AM ∞
NellyB wrote:
Laura...
At $3.98/ dinar, that would bag me $39,800,000 dollars, minus tax.
I would be absolutely delighted with just 1/1000 of that figure!
-- June 5, 2009 2:34 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Safat Energy Bahraini subsidiary wins USD 4.5m oil well contract in Iraq
Bahrain-based Eastern Industrial & Oilfield Services (EiOS), 61.65% owned by Kuwaiti Safat Energy Holding (KUW:SENERGY), has won a one-year USD 4.5 million (EUR 3.2m) contract to provide oil well exploratory services to an unnamed customer in southern Iraq, Safat Energy said in a statement to the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE).
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 5, 2009 9:53 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Total sees Iraq oil deals this summer
Fri Jun 5, 2009 3:53am BST
By Marie Maitre and Muriel BoselliPARIS (Reuters) - French oil major Total (TOTF.PA) expects Iraq to award stakes in oilfields open to bids this summer, a senior executive told the Reuters Energy Summit on Thursday.
"It is a matter of two or three months starting from now... not only in Bin Umar but also in fields which are open for bids," said Jean-Jacques Mosconi, head of strategy and planning at Total.
Iraqi officials have said Total and Chevron (CVX.N) have been invited to bid jointly against Norway's StatoilHydro (STL.OL) for a contract to develop the 6-billion barrel Nahr Bin Umar southern oilfield.
In April, Iraq's Vice-President Adil Abd al-Mahdi said that Total had a very good chance of wining contracts in the country that holds the world's third largest oil reserves.
Baghdad is seeking foreign investment in an effort to boost production and modernize infrastructure devastated by decades of war, sanctions and neglect.
Mosconi said it would take some time to bring fields back on stream, but declined to say exactly how long it would take to restore higher levels of production, saying that element was part of the bids.
"The fields are not performing well. They are very old so all this has to be reassessed. You have big and deep production issues."
-- June 5, 2009 12:06 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
The following article has been posted by Seaview on IIF. I believe it is of such significance that I am posting it here for your consideration. Your comments are welcomed and appreciated. Concrete evidence that sanctions may be abolished.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________the Security Council is to abolish the sanctions imposed on Iraq
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UN Security Council intends to raise the number of UN resolutions imposed on Iraq during the two meetings will be held this month. A Western diplomat of the "morning" for the success of diplomacy to persuade Iraq's large number of members of the Security Council,
Especially the permanent members, that Baghdad was committed to the implementation of most of the sanctions imposed on the country in accordance with Section VII of the Charter of the United Nations, because of Saddam's regime's invasion of Kuwait. In spite of the movement of non-Kuwaiti officials justified to prevent the exodus of money from Iraq, Section VII, but the diplomat, who asked not to be on condition of anonymity, said the council will cancel a number of resolutions, without revealing whether the file relating to Kuwait or other issues, adding say: It will be "There is a write-off of two or more.
The official Kuwaiti news agency revealed last week as adviser to the movement in the Kuwaiti Amiri Diwan Mohammad Abdullah Abul-Hassan to the members of the Security Council to prevent the lifting of international sanctions on Iraq, which is unacceptable, several deputies, asking to pay compensation to Kuwait due to Iraq's past policies and the confiscation of tens of kilometers from the territory of the country.
He expected a diplomatic resolution of the weight will keep Iraq under Chapter VII, but the bases and new mechanisms to enable then to get rid once and for all of these sanctions, noting that there are good American, British and Turkish to pay towards the reconstruction of Iraq to the role of regional and global levels.
It should be noted that Dr. Mohammed al-Haj Hammoud, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had discussed with the Turkish ambassador in Baghdad Deria Qnbay, raising the question of Iraq from Section VII, in particular with Turkey to preside over the Security Council this month.
The western diplomat added that "the Council will deliberate on two meetings held in June in a detailed report of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the activities of (UNAMI), and the review of decisions by the Security Council imposed on Iraq under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, according to the fifth paragraph of the resolution Security Council 1859th was Ban Ki-moon has said in a report published in several sites yesterday, to a significant progress in Iraq in the political and security spheres, suggesting the application of Baghdad, international obligations, as may be allowed to derail the country's huge item VII.
Furthermore, there were Iraqi diplomatic dynamic is designed to calm the situation with Kuwait and contain the escalation, calling for dialogue and bilateral cooperation to resolve issues that reflect negatively on the development of relations between the two countries, despite the continuation of non-rationality of the votes of MPs, Kuwaiti officials. It should be noted that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki demanded during a meeting last week, Kuwait's ambassador in Baghdad, the insured, "the resolution of outstanding issues between the two brotherly neighbors, through dialogue, which guarantees the rights of the parties," stressing that "the commitment to maintain calm and dialogue between the two sides could resolve the problems inherited from the era of the Alambad.
As part of a related new member of the Integrity Committee in the House of Representatives Mohamed Naji Kuwait re-claim the property seized by Iraq after 1991, indicating that the Kuwaiti government seized five Iraqi oil tankers and giant refused to surrender since that time on various pretexts.
http://209.85.229.132/translate_c?hl...Qy61mhhYTQIykQThanks,
Rob N.
-- June 5, 2009 11:52 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
An article of interest.
------------------------------
Gulf Cooperation Council Look For Currency Union Pact To Be Inked On June 7http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Gulf states will sign an agreement for monetary union on June 7 in Riyadh, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al-Attiyah said at a meeting of the GCC finance ministers in Muscat Saturday.
Al-Attiyah said the GCC’s Higher Council had authorized the Ministerial Council to sign the agreement.
The GCC secretariat general is seeking through its communication with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar to implement the Higher Council order to approve the agreement before next September in order for it to be effective by the beginning of 2010, prior to establishing the Monetary Council before the end of the current year.
Al-Attiyah added that executive steps for the establishment of the Monetary Council were awaiting moves from legislative bodies in member countries to approve the Monetary Union Agreement which contains the union’s legislative and institutional framework.
The Monetary Council will be tasked with technical requirements, preparations for the Central Bank, and the single currency.
Bahrain is the only country to have already approved the agreement. The Kuwaiti finance ministry has submitted the agreement to Kuwait’s Council of Ministers for approval.
Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf in an interview to a news agency said the Kingdom and three other Gulf states will proceed with their monetary union plan and the location of a Gulf central bank would not be open for renegotiation.
“It is not derailed, it will continue. The monetary union will proceed as planned,” he said.
“As long as we are moving in the right direction, this is the most important.”
The UAE dropped out of the single currency plan.
Asked if the location of the central bank was open for renegotiation, Al-Assaf said: “No. There is a decision that has been taken by our leaders.”
Al-Assaf said one of the key benefits of the single currency would be to reduce transaction costs between the member countries in areas such as trade and tourism.
“Having a single currency will eliminate the risk and that tremendously influences decisions to invest, to deposit funds, to do any type of trade.” The single currency would also enable the region to have a “major currency bloc,” he said.
In 2001, the six members of the GCC - a loose political and economic alliance - agreed to set up a monetary union like that of the European Union.
-- June 6, 2009 2:33 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Another article of interest.
------------------------------------Japan's shadow finance minister wants single Asian currency
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The man who hopes to be Japan's next finance minister envisions an Asia united by a single currency, saying the dollar may no longer reign supreme in future.
The opposition's "shadow finance minister" Masaharu Nakagawa also says he hopes to reshape the world's number two economy into a kinder, gentler place if his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) wins elections this year.
"You can't invigorate society only through... the law of the jungle where the strong become stronger," he told AFP. "The same player would always win if there were no handicaps in golf."
Japan's conservative Prime Minister Taro Aso must call elections by September, when the DPJ hopes to topple his Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for almost all of the past half century.
In an interview with AFP, Nakagawa outlined some of the changes he would like to make if he becomes finance minister in Asia's largest economy, which is now in the throes of its worst post-World War II recession.
Looking at the broader region, he said Asia should tackle security and economic issues as "a unified community."
"Asian currencies should be unified into a common currency in the course of the region's forming a single economic zone," Nakagawa told AFP.
He did not give a timeframe, saying it would largely depend on economic and political developments in China.
Nakagawa said people must "take into account the possibility that the dollar might not function as the key currency any more in the medium and long term" as the world seeks a new order in the post-Cold War era.
Until an Asian common currency emerges, he said, "the Japanese government should make efforts to have the "Asia zone" use the yen, not the dollar, for trade settlements. It's time for Japan to launch this plan."
Japan's government could extend lending to the International Monetary Fund on condition that it is in yen while guaranteeing bonds by Asian countries if they are denominated in the Japanese currency, he said.
Nakagawa, who turns 59 in June, studied foreign affairs at Georgetown University in the United States in the 1970s. The father-of-four represents a constituency in central Mie prefecture.
He says he is a "generalist" rather than an economic expert.
Speaking more broadly on his vision for Japan, he said the country had followed the United States and its liberalism in the past, but the time had come for the nation to be "more Asian."
"Now is the time for Japan to say what kind of world it would like to create, not to adapt itself to the given circumstances as it has "- since its defeat in World World II, he said.
-- June 6, 2009 2:42 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Rob N.,
Good find on the U.N. and Chapter VII not being lifted on Iraq.
Laura Parker
-- June 6, 2009 10:20 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Asia already has a dominant currency; it is the Chinese Yuan.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 6, 2009 10:37 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The reason Kuwait insists on full payment,via chapter VII, for war damages by Iraq is the fact that Saddam blew 700 wellheads on the way out of Kuwait. Repair costs were huge!
Another huge cost factor was the clean-up of the crude that drifted down the coast fron Kuwait to Bahrain. Every industrial plant along the coast had to implement an emergency clean-up plan to keep the crude out of their seawater intake systems. The desalination plants were in pure panic mode.
Even after Iraq pays their debt for all damages, relations will never be the same between the two countries, too much bad blood!
-- June 7, 2009 11:36 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Al-Nujaifi warns against possible clashes between Iraqi army and Kurdish militias in Mosul
Al-Bayyina Al-Jadeeda independent newspaper of today has quoted lawmaker Usamah al-Nujaifi of the National Iraqi List warning against possible confrontations between the Iraqi army and the Kurdish militias in the Nineveh governorate the provincial capital of which is Mosul.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 8, 2009 9:47 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
The Kuwaiti tab
Submitted by Ben Lando on Monday, 8 June 2009
Post war,the United Nations ordered Iraq to pay billions of dollars in compensation to its oil-rich southern neighbour. With Saddam gone and Baghdad under the control of the United States, a long-time Kuwaiti ally, Iraq believed the reparations would be cancelled and friendly relations resumed, Nizar Latif reports for The National.
Instead, Kuwait has been urging the UN Security Council to uphold the repayments, with $25.5 billion (Dh94bn) still owing. An extra $16bn in debt, lent to Iraq during the 1980s to fund its war with Iran, is also being demanded.
Kuwait sent an envoy to council members to lobby their support, insisting that Iraq’s international obligations have still not been met and apply to the new government of Nouri al Maliki, just as they applied to Saddam Hussein.
Iraqis, who believe they have already paid heavily enough for Saddam’s folly with 10 years of devastating sanctions, are outraged.
-- June 8, 2009 10:13 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
The following is posted by Adster on IIF. It presents a logical argument why we all have invested in the New Iraqi Dinar.
__________________________________________________________
This is a once in a lifetime event because there’ll never be another country as potentially rich as Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) whose currency and bonds have--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is good..........
The Iraqi Case
To demonstrate how this scam has occurred under George W. Bush, let us go back to the Understanding Money and War, Parts IV and V, which addressed the work of the crafty Paul Wolfowitz and the Rothschild banking empire to take over the Iraqi money system.
In trying to assess these efforts, my first inclination was that surely Wolf and his Rothschild mentors moved in on the old Iraqi dinars and obtained possession of most of them (maybe like their earlier relatives did with the old Continentals after the Revolutionary War).
I have already related the story from Gordon Thomas and the American Free Press of Aug 20, 2003 about how the CIA raided the old Iraqi Central Bank and made off with its money, gold and whatever of value found there (as related in Part IV of this series).
I don’t know how many of the old dinars were stolen in this raid. But there should have been quite a supply of them at the Iraqi Central Bank. And if so, where did they go? My own belief is that Wolfowitz and his Rothschild relatives and colleagues ended up with much of the monetary assets of the CIA raid on the Iraqi Central Bank. Since Paul was in charge of the Iraqi war, he already had plans made that there would be a new dinar and that the old dinar would be 100% convertible to the new one.
Once the Rothschild privately owned Iraqi Central Bank came into being in 2004, it all became academic anyway. Just as the US Federal Reserve answers to no one (except its owners), we can be sure that the privately owned Iraqi Central Bank will answer to no one beyond its corporate owners (which are the Rothschilds and other big bankers).
More
I have also learned some other things on how the fat cat plutocrats are now in the process of making another huge stack of profits on a deal that they have been working on in Iraq. It appears that Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch had some worthless packaged mortgages which nothing could be or can be done about. But they also had a lot of (currently) worthless, old, Iraqi bonds, alongside the mortgages. Lehman Brothers did not have many Iraqi bonds.
With this backdrop, JP Morgan-Chase bought Bear Stearns and Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch. This worked out well because those same banks also have much Iraqi currency and bonds. When you add the holdings of the failing companies in with the surviving big banks, it means the survivors now have a hoard of Iraqi money and bonds.
The fat cats seemingly let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt possibly because they didn’t have any assets like that in their portfolio. But as a sidelight on this, the top brass of Lehman are now a part of an organization in the Middle East that has something to do with setting oil prices. So they are not being left out of the loop entirely.
When the current Iraq war broke out, the old Iraqi dinars went to near worthless (which we can be sure were bought up by Rothschild agents like Wolf). Subsequently, the Rothschilds had a hand in creating the new Iraqi dinar (which was all spiffed up with good security features, etc.). While the war has been going on since Mar 2003, the plutocrat team players have been acquiring huge quantities of the Iraqi dinars and bonds.
First, they picked up vast quantities of the old dinars which were made good in 2004 with the exchange proviso to the new dinar. And now, since 2004, they have been acquiring the new dinars and either holding them or selling them to the public (along with the work of the Rothschild owned central bank sales of dinars to the public).
Some days ago, I understand that Goldman Sachs (another Rothschild US Company) was given permission to convert itself into a regular bank. All normal waiting times and red tape to do this were waived. This bank supposedly has $1.1 trillion in assets (too, Warren Buffet has invested 5 billion into this new operation and, supposedly, it is the first time he’s invested in a bank in decades). As it turns out, Goldman Sachs is also flush with Iraqi bonds.
The reason Goldman Sachs needed to be a bank is so that when the Iraqi dinar is stabilized and increased in value from oil sales (which will be an engineered maneuver, courtesy of the Rothschilds) those Iraqi assets will suddenly, magically become worth much. This is a once in a lifetime event because there’ll never be another country as potentially rich as Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) whose currency and bonds have been engineered to be worthless to give the big boys a chance to hop on them and really clean up.
The events described above on the Iraqi situation help establish why the US invaded that nation in 2003. Obviously, the whole exercise was undertaken to make vast new profits for the plutocrat masters and neo-cons now ruling the US. For sure, we can bank on it that the fat cats have and will make absolute fortunes on the Iraqi thing before the dust settles.
But once more, there is a word of caution here. Just as the new dinar has had wide swings up and down in value, it could easily go to the garbage can if and when US forces leave Iraq and the people of Iraq gain control of their nation. When that happens, we can be sure that the Rothschild Central Bank and the present Rothschild approved dinar will both go down the tubes.
Finally, there remain some questions about the US war to make money for the plutocrats and neo-cons and particularly about the gold formerly held by the Iraqi government at the old Iraqi Central Bank. What happened to this gold? Was it laundered by some mining company? Did the Rothschilds get it? Has it been sold on the open gold market to drive gold prices down?
As touched upon in the Goldsmiths, Part XXX, the CIA was in possession of this gold as well as likely a large sum of gold found in the Philippines and Europe after WWII. The CIA could have easily made this gold available to the Fed or Treasury to manipulate and control the gold markets for the last 40 years.
http://www.analysis-news.com/allfold...tanding-VI.htm
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 9, 2009 2:11 PM ∞
Fred S. wrote:
That is a what if story of all stories. I have patiently awaited a move one way or the other and am glad it has not been the other! It is moving in a increasing value just much much slower than we all would like and believe that it should. That is were scenario after scenario is thrown at this board which play heavily on our fragile Dinar hearts.
One thing we know The US is not gonna leave Iraq, we have built a few bases and it is garanteed that a presence will be in place. The Navy is always in the Gulf and Army always in Afghanistan. There are just to many factors keeping this thing from moving.
-Oil Prices higher while usage down ???
-Us Dollar weak one month and strong the next CNBC
-Less press on Iraq on a day to day Good with less deaths but bad for showing the world lets get busy!
-Infrastructure, who who really I mena really thought they had to rebuild everything I mean really!!
-Banking system US banks thumbs down so how is Iraq's banking system gonna flourish during this?
-Do they have their imports of goods reaching all the cities yet or just the big cities.
-It just goes on and on-- June 9, 2009 3:52 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Fred S.
I think there are many reasons to continue to be bullish on the Dinar. What we are all watching is a nation emerging from war to a viable nation state. Just as the great Roman Empire was not built in a day neither shall Iraq.
I agree there is still much work both the GoI and the CBI must do; but, if my previous post has any merit and the Rothschild are involved to the degree indicated then we are in good company.
Hang on Frank while Iraq continues to slowly rise from the dust of despotism and war it will evolve into a functioning and prosperous nation state.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 9, 2009 4:06 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Rising oil prices may let Iraq spend more: PM
Iraq may be able to boost government spending in coming months thanks to rising oil prices and recent increases in the country's production capacity, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Monday.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 9, 2009 5:17 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Jabir accuses Atiyya of delaying oil minister interrogation 09/06/2009 17:15:00
Baghdad (NINA) – Rapporteur of Oil and Gas committee in Parliament MP Jabir Khalifa Jabir confirmed that Deputy Speaker Khalid al-Atiyya attempts to delay interrogation of oil and gas minister Hussein al-Shahristani.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 9, 2009 5:18 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Iraq abides by UN regulations of transactions with Iranian banks - spokesman
Economics 6/9/2009 10:07:00 PM
BAGHDAD, June 9 (KUNA) -- The Iraqi cabinet reiterated on Tuesday commitment to parameters laid down by the United Nations Security Council resolutions in regard to the transactions with Iranian banks.
During its meeting the cabinet approved guidelines for the government and private financial institutions to control the transactions with the Iranian banks operating in Iraq in tune with the relevant UNSC resolutions, the government spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh told reporters here.
The resolutions ban transactions with some Iranian banks while Bank Melli Iran is allowed to operate in Iraq pursuant to Paragraph 10 of the UNSC Resolution 1803 under strict controls, Al-Dabbagh explained.
The Iranian banks are facing mounting difficulties in their overseas operations due to the tightened UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran. (end) ahh.gb KUNA 092207 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 9, 2009 5:23 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
UPDATE 1-DNO expects payment for Iraq oil exports soon
Norwegian oil producer DNO International on Thursday linked its future investments in Iraq to swift payment from Baghdad for oil exports which began from its field in Kurdish north Iraq at the start of June.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 11, 2009 9:45 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Hi All, This could link to an earlier post.Matt
U.S. still pursuing theft cases from CPA Iraq rule
Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:42am BST
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The United States has by no means finished investigating the possible theft of billions of dollars during the chaotic rule of Iraq by U.S. administrators after the 2003 invasion, a U.S. corruption watchdog said.
Stuart Bowen, the U.S. special investigator for Iraq reconstruction, also rejected Iraqi complaints that Washington was not helping Baghdad uncover the possible misuse of Iraqi funds under the 14-month Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA).
The CPA, which administered Iraq for Washington between 2003 and 2004, was accused of amateurism, the uncontrolled dispersal of cash -- sometimes in duffle bags -- and policy mistakes that aggravated Iraq's slide into insurgency and sectarian war.
It spent billions of dollars in U.S. funds on trying to rebuild Iraq out of the rubble of war and also handed out $19 billion (11.5 billion pounds) of Iraqi government money.
Around $8.8 billion in funds administered by the CPA effectively went missing, Bowen's office has reported, because record-keeping was so lax there was no way to find out where it went or what it was spent on.
"We are by no means finished investigating the issues that arose during the CPA," Bowen told Reuters by telephone on Wednesday, without giving details. "We have significant ongoing cases related to the misuse of money during this period."
Rahim al-Ugaili, the head of Iraq's Integrity Commission, said this week that U.S. officials had not handed over documents needed to investigate the possible misappropriation of Iraqi funds under the CPA.
He said the immunity of U.S. officials and U.S. contractors from prosecution in Iraq had hampered his efforts to investigate corruption. There have been mumblings in Baghdad that the Iraqi government would like to sue the CPA for wasting Iraqi funds.
Ugaili's comments coincided with a campaign by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to crack down on rampant graft ahead of parliamentary elections next January.
Bowen said Ugaili's criticism was inaccurate.
On the contrary, the United States had handed Ugaili's predecessor, Radhi Hamza al-Radhi, who fled Iraq after threats against his life, thousands of documents, Bowen said. Under Ugaili few requests for information had been received, he said.
"After Judge Radhi was run out we had more difficulty getting in touch with them," he said. "They've been pretty stand-offish."
He said the possible criminal cases his office passed on to Iraqi authorities had not produced results.
One case involved an Iraqi contractor who was paid to build a water pipe for just under a million dollars, but barely did more than dig a ditch; a second involved a contractor hired to build a latrine for a police headquarters with 10 showers and 10 sinks, but who only built a shack with one sink; another case involved a bribe captured on audio video tape.
"They say there was no evidence to proceed but we had audio video tape of a bribe," Bowen said.
Cooperation between the two sides took a turn for the better this May when the Integrity Commission handed over evidence detailing five possible criminal cases involving U.S. contractors to Bowen's office.
"I think they're plausible and they are the kinds of things that we'll follow up on," Bowen said. He gave no details.
-- June 11, 2009 3:57 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Hi all,
I read the post posted by Rob N, and originally written by Adster from IFF.
I have followed IFF blog site, but never posted anything there.
There was a couple of "big names" on that blog site in the past, and Adster was one of them.
The sources and findings were published, and the articles or documents were attached to the postings, and on occasion the "big guys" on IFF came up with some really good jewels picked from obscured websites, and it was in big contrast to the MSM dirt pile.
However as I remeber it, the documents were produced, and rumors were strictly refered back to the "rumor department" .
Reading this latest article from Adster, make me believe that it might be time for that person to flip off the computer for a while, and go out in the wilderness, and hear the birds sing, and listen to the water flowing in a creek somewhere.
It is soothing for the soul.
I am sorry to say, but now Adster show all the symptoms of a conspiracy theorist.
When there are a lot of complex data, complex situation, and complex solutions at hand, predictions will sometimes go out the window.
It is testing to the human ego, and human soul to try to "understand" it all.
If years and years go by, and the solutions that a sane person will come to, doesn't happen....then the frustration kicks in.
(I was on a public chess turnament once, and the public was following the two last finalists with big interest. In the middle of the game one of the players could have made Chess Mate in two moves, but he didn't see it. This was very surprising to us all, this was two very good players, but he just didnt see it. Instead he was thinking and thinking, and thinking. It was almost a pain to see that he didnt see it, we were sitting an the audience, whispering out the moves to ourselves, it was so clear to us all, but he just didn't see it)
So we can see the right moves regarding the Dinar, but it is not happening in this moment of time.
Why, well now there are a couple of ways to go, either just accept that there have not been an RV, that the currency is controlled, that the currency is held down in value, and that we can not control why it is so.
Or, as Adster have done, try to "understand" it.
Adster just served us a long explanation built on a theory of a mass conspiracy of the secret world economical sect that control any economy or finance on this earth.... from a dark room.
It's funny, I am right now in the heart of Iraq, not far from Baghdad, and have with my travelings in the Middle East, pretty much have got a hand in the way they think here, and exactly the trap many Middle Easterners are sitting in, Adster have also fallen right into it.
By old habit and culture, ( according to Arabic wisdom) any politician will lie about anything.
So when a politician are saying anything, the Arab man, will automatically try to figure out, WHY he is saying so, what is behind it, and what is the REAL reasons for him saying so.
So, the US are giving out foodparcels, and immediately the rumor is out that AlSad'r have negotiated the deal, and he should be thanked for, not the US.
Live chickens are given out in an agricultural area in order to boost food production. Immediately the rumor is out that the chickens have brainwashing substanses injected into them, by the US, and if you eat them, your will, will subside. So the chickens are killed.
If you would sit in a barber shop in Baghdad, or in many other places in Iraq, and listen to the locals giving their idea how the world is working, you would hear the most outrageous conspiracy theories being told one by one, as if it would be the truth.
Secret pacts, secret money, secret intentions, secret this secret that...you name it and the issue have probably ben woven into a conspiracy theory thousand times by the common Arab man.
For the Arab and for Adster, it is the same mechanism.
If it doesn't make sense, then they have to try to make sense out of it, by filling in the blanks, until the picture fits.
Once everything fits, it is an...."aha !!!!" ...moment,and now it is "the truth".
We all want to understand, Arabs, Adster, you and I, but on occasion we will run into things that have far far to many variables into it, and the subject may partially not make sense at all.
It for sure defies logic that the Dinar is held down artificially for so long, and on top of it all, it is supressing all the investors into a constant state of dreaming of wealth, instead of having the wealth, and everyone and his brother that has been into the Dinar for a while, are pretty sick and tired of waiting.
So...the "what's going on behind the scenes" questions start coming.
There is nothing there to try to understand, other than what it is.
It's really simple actually.
Iraq have just come out of a borderline civil war, the whole countrys intelligensia have fled, and are living outside of Iraq, and may never come back.
Competence have to be imported in order to start projects.
Still bombs goes off, weapons are branded, and as late as yesterday I had to sit three hours in a convoy while an IED was cleared. Two days before that the truck ahead of me had an AK round aimed right at the driver, the armor plate stopped it though, and I have the pics to show for it. (A smiling driver pointing at a bullet hole, that if it had gone through, would most certainly have killed him)
So while there is a lot of willingness to get construction contracts in Iraq, there are not too much willingness to actually start on it, as long as bullets are flying.
(Wow, as I am writing this, artillery was firing, pretty loud bang...I can assure you, probably shooting flares, illuminating areas where operations are going on....funny, but it just makes my point more valid)
So why are the Dinar where it is right now.
You choose your own answer ( oh sh...t, they shoot again....true... they really did).
Because a world wide conspiracy of some Rotchilds or because there is a war going on.
Sometimes the answer is just far far too simple.
-- June 11, 2009 8:14 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger,
You keep your head down. If there is shooting, there is danger to life and limb. If you read higher up on the blog, I think you would have noticed that
Al-Quida is sending in more terrorist from Africa. This is supposely in respond to President Obama's sending in troops to put pressure on the Taliban and AlQuida.So...stay safe and keep us posted on your whereabouts. It is nice to hear from you.
Laura Parker
-- June 12, 2009 2:13 AM ∞
RON wrote:
hi dinar train gang,Roger stay safe and will see you soon at big roast on beach.GOD BLESS US ALL
-- June 12, 2009 3:02 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Have you noticed that oil prices have started to creep upward; fiscally speaking Iraq will benefit from increased revenues.
Increased revenues may stem their movement to borrow from the IMF. Oil is beginning to pump and export from Kurdistan. I have enclosed the following article. We will see how long cooperation between Baghdad and Arbil can continue.
__________________________________________________________Norwegian DNO eyes exports at full capacity from Tawke in four weeks
Oil exports from the Tawke field in the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq are expected to reach full capacity in four weeks, if things develop as planned, Helge Eide, CEO of Norwegian company DNO International ASA said.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 12, 2009 3:14 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
Good to see you posting. Though I agree with your premise I do not think you can discount the influence of the Rothschilds and Rockefellers over foreign and domestic policy.
We will never really know whether a policy of the United States was at the prodding of one of the super wealthy. I believe it was President Clinton that showed us the super wealthy always has access to the executive branch of our government.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 12, 2009 3:21 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
An article of interest on the political situation in middle east.
--------------------
What If Israel Strikes Iran?http://online.wsj.com/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The mullahs would retaliate. But things would be much worse if they had the bomb
Whatever the outcome of Iran's presidential elections, negotiations will not soon -- if ever -- put an end to its nuclear threat. And given Iran's determination to achieve deliverable nuclear weapons, speculation about a possible Israeli attack on its nuclear program will not only persist but grow.
So what would such an attack look like? Obviously, Israel would need to consider many factors -- such as its timing and scope, Iran's increasing air defenses, the dispersion and hardening of its nuclear facilities, the potential international political costs, and Iran's "unpredictability." While not as menacingly irrational as North Korea, Iran's politico-military logic hardly compares to our NATO allies. Central to any Israeli decision is Iran's possible response.
Israel's alternative is that Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs reach fruition, leaving its very existence at the whim of its staunchest adversary. Israel has not previously accepted such risks. It destroyed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor being built by North Koreans in 2007. One major new element in Israel's calculus is the Obama administration's growing distance (especially in contrast to its predecessor).
Consider the most-often mentioned Iranian responses to a possible Israeli strike:
1) Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Often cited as Tehran's knee-jerk answer -- along with projections of astronomic oil-price spikes because of the disruption of supplies from Persian Gulf producers -- this option is neither feasible nor advisable for Iran. The U.S. would quickly overwhelm any effort to close the Strait, and Iran would be risking U.S. attacks on its land-based military. Direct military conflict with Washington would turn a bad situation for Iran -- disruption of its nuclear program -- into a potential catastrophe for the regime. Prudent hedging by oil traders and consuming countries (though not their strong suit, historically) would minimize any price spike.
2) Iran cuts its o wn oil exports to raise world prices. An Iranian embargo of its own oil exports would complete the ruin of Iran's domestic economy by depriving the country of hard currency. This is roughly equivalent to Thomas Jefferson's 1807 embargo on American exports to protect U.S. shipping from British and French interference. That harmed the U.S. far more than the Europeans. Even Iran's mullahs can see that. Another gambit with no legs.
3) Iran attacks U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some Tehran hard-liners might advocate this approach, or even attacks on U.S. bases or Arab targets in the Gulf -- but doing so would risk direct U.S. retaliation against Iran, as many U.S. commanders in Iraq earlier recommended. Increased violence in Iraq or Afghanistan might actually prolong the U.S. military presence in Iraq, despite President Barack Obama's current plans for withdrawal. Moreover, taking on the U.S. military, even in an initially limited way, carries enormous risks for Iran. Tehran may believe the Obama administration's generally apologetic international posture will protect it from U.S. escalation, but it would be highly dangerous for Iran to gamble on more weakness in the face of increased U.S. casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan.
4) Iran increases support for global terrorism. This Iranian option, especially stepping up world-wide attacks against U.S. targets, is always open. Assuming, however, that Mr. Obama does not further degrade our intelligence capabilities and that our watchfulness remains high, the terrorism option outside of the Middle East is extremely risky for Iran. If Washington uncovered evidence of direct or indirect Iranian terrorist activities in America, for example, even the Obama administration would have to consider direct retaliation inside Iran. While Iran enjoys rhetorical conflict with the U.S., operationally it prefers picking on targets its own size or smaller.
5) Iran launches missile attacks on Israel. Because all the foregoing options risk more direct U.S. involvement, Tehran will most likely decide to retaliate against the actual attacker, Israel. Using its missile and perhaps air force capabilities, Iran could do substantial damage in Israel, especially to civilian targets. Of course, one can only imagine what Iran might do once it has nuclear weapons, and this is part of the cost-benefit analysis Israel must make before launching attacks in the first place. Direct Iranian military action against Israel, however, would provoke an even broader Israeli counterstrike, which at some point might well involve Israel's own nuclear capability. Accordingly, Iran's Revolutionary Guards would have to think long and hard before unleashing its own capabilities against Israel.
6) Iran unleashes Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel. By process of elimination, but also because of strategic logic, Iran's most likely option is retaliating through Hamas and Hezbollah. Increased terrorist attacks inside Israel, military incursions by Hezbollah across the Blue Line, and, most significantly, salvoes of missiles from both Lebanon and the Gaza Strip are all possibilities. In plain violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, Iran has not only completely re-equipped Hezbollah since the 2006 war with Israel, but the longer reach of Hezbollah's rockets now endangers Israel's entire civilian population. Moreover, Hamas's rocket capabilities could easily be substantially enhanced to provide greater range and payload to strike throughout Israel, creating a two-front challenge.
Risks to its civilian population will weigh heavily in any Israeli decision to use force, and might well argue for simultaneous, pre-emptive attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas in conjunction with a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Obviously, Israel will have to measure the current risks to its safety and survival against the longer-term threat to its very existence once Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
This brief survey demonstrates why Israel's military option against Iran's nuclear program is so unattractive, but also why failing to act is even worse. All these scenarios become infinitely more dangerous once Iran has deliverable nuclear weapons. So does daily life in Israel, elsewhere in the region and globally.
Many argue that Israeli military action will cause Iranians to rally in support of the mullahs' regime and plunge the region into political chaos. To the contrary, a strike accompanied by effective public diplomacy could well turn Iran's diverse population against an oppressive regime. Most of the Arab world's leaders would welcome Israel solving the Iran nuclear problem, although they certainly won't say so publicly and will rhetorically embrace Iran if Israel strikes. But rhetoric from its Arab neighbors is the only quantum of solace Iran will get.
On the other hand, the Obama administration's increased pressure on Israel concerning the "two-state solution" and West Bank settlements demonstrates Israel's growing distance from Washington. Although there is no profit now in complaining that Israel should have struck during the Bush years, the missed opportunity is palpable. For the remainder of Mr. Obama's term, uncertainty about his administration's support for Israel will continue to dog Israeli governments and complicate their calculations. Iran will see that as well, and play it for all it's worth. This is yet another reason why Israel's risks and dilemmas, difficult as they are, only increase with time.
-- June 13, 2009 10:34 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I want to call everyone's attention to the advertisement at top of T&B on Bernanke's Secret Debt Solution to the USA currency thereby converting all currency into a world currency. The article is put out by Weiss and Associates - a PHD Economist firm in my neighborhood. This is not a dealer article and I believe it needs to be given thoughtful consideration.
Please, everyone, try and read this article and give you thoughts on how this situation could impact the Iraqi Dinar and world economy.
Laura Parker
-- June 14, 2009 12:05 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I also sent a pdf copy of Bernake's Debt Solution to Roger in Iraq. I am hoping he may give his reactions to it on T and B.
In the mean time, all of you, please chime in.
Laura Parker
-- June 14, 2009 12:10 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
I see that Bernanke's Secret Debt Solution article at top of this T&B column has disappeared. However, if anyone does want to read the article, I do have the e-mail with the link. You will need to leave me your e-mails and I will send the e-mail that I have on the issue.
Thanks,
Laura Parker
-- June 14, 2009 1:58 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
US, Syria discuss cooperation on Iraq: report
A US military delegation has met officials in Syria to discuss ways of cooperating on the security situation in Iraq, a daily newspaper close to the government reported on Sunday.
(www.noozz.com)An ulterior motive by this desire at cooperation on Iraq could be to further isolate Iran.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 2:33 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Odierno: 30 Thousand American troops withdrawn, 142 bases handed to Iraqis 15/06/2009 20:29:00
Baghdad (NINA) – Commander of the US forces in Iraq, General Raymond Odierno, announced that thirty thousand American troops have been withdrawn from Iraq and 142 American bases have been handed to Iraqi forces since last January.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 2:34 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
EU alarmed about mass executions in Iraq
Politics 6/15/2009 6:37:00 PM
BRUSSELS, June 15 (KUNA) -- The European Union said Monday that it is "deeply disturbed" at reports that in recent days further death sentences were carried out in Iraq, probably totaling 20. A statement by the current Czech EU Presidency expressed alarm about indications that further mass executions might be imminent in Iraq.
"At a time where a positive image of Iraq and of its achievements is emerging, the resumption of the execution of capital punishment affects that image," it said.
The EU urged the Iraqi government to resume the de facto suspension of the execution of death penalty, which had been observed in Iraq since August 2007. (end) nk.gb KUNA 151837 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 2:39 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
EU voices support for Iraq''s re-engagement with neighbours
Politics 6/15/2009 4:00:00 PM
LUXEMBOURG, June 15 (KUNA) -- European Union (EU) Foreign Ministers meeting here Monday underlined EU support for Iraq's re-engagement with its neighbours and international institutions in accordance with relevant UN resolutions. The ministers in a statement called on regional partners, including the Arab League, to continue active dialogue and cooperation with Iraq, for the sake of unity, integrity and sovereignty of the country as well as for the peace and stability of the whole region. In this context, they welcomed the increased high level dialogue and further opening of diplomatic missions, while encouraging progress in negotiations on debt relief by regional partners.
The EU urged Iraq to adhere to the planned timetable for national elections no later than the end of January 2010 and of parliamentary and presidential elections in the Kurdistan Region on 25 July 2009.
The EU ministers also expressed support to the efforts of UNAMI (United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq ) in assisting Iraq by contributing to discussions on disputed internal boundaries, including Kirkuk. The statement underlined the need for dialogue and willingness to compromise from all parties in order to achieve national reconciliation between all of Iraqi communities. (end) nk.mt KUNA 151600 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 2:40 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
IPU chairman condemns killing of Iraqi MP Al-Obaidi
Population 6/15/2009 12:36:00 PM
GENEVA, June 15 (KUNA) -- Canadian Senator Sharon Carstairs, President of the Committee on the Human Rights of Parliamentarians of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) condemned the killing of Iraqi Member of Parliament Hareth Al-Obaidi, along with his bodyguard, in a mosque in Baghdad last Friday.
"I am all too aware that many brave men and women parliamentarians around the world are risking their lives to do their work," said Carstairs.
The official first met Al-Obaidi at the IPU in Geneva in 2006, at a meeting with the Iraqi parliamentary human rights committee.
"I was struck by the enormous personal risks these parliamentarians faced in their efforts to improve life in Iraq, and now, Al-Obaidi has paid the ultimate price," added Senator Carstairs. (end) hn.wsa KUNA 151236 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 2:41 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
I read this morning that the Iraqi Parliment has intentions on waiting until after the elections in January to address Hydro Carbon Legislation.
It seems to me that this delay and the questioning of the oil minister are designed to delay ratification of the HCL. I still contend that Hydro Carbon legislation is necessary before any significant change in the Dinar will occur.
We must use this time to maximize our investments. I have decided to establish an account at Al-Warka and once I reach my desired amount I will be investing in the ISX. In my opinon there is still an opportunity to reap a sizable profit.
On a personal note, has anyone heard from Sara. If so, please tell her I said hello. If she is of mind to do so, please have her email me at zionsmountain@yahoo.com
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 15, 2009 3:00 PM ∞
Sandra wrote:
I would be interested in reading the article that Laura Parker was refering too. And the latest on the dinar's RV?
Sandy
-- June 15, 2009 3:52 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq, wrote:
Rob N,
Hi glad you finally are getting in on a Warka account. Let your Dinar work for you while you wait for the big RV day.
As for Rotchilds and Rockefellers...oh well...I might not be completely in tune with you about those guys, but ok, they have influence....I give you that.
Laura,Got you a reply on your e-mail.
All,
There is a movement here in Iraq to call for a referendum, that is, a vote by the Iraqi population to agree or dissagree on the three year pact we have with Iraq, and thus our presence in this country.
Some say that this will not take place as this has already been decided on by proper authorities, but others are moving forward with plans to have that referendum.
If in fact the referendum takes place, the outcome, according to observers, will likely be that the population wants us out more or less yesterday, and probably no more than a year would then be allowed for us to pack up and leave, far quicker than the original plan.
Where this will lead, in this moment of time, we don't know, we just have to keep up with the news on this as time goes by.
IF the referendum takes place, AND we need to get out within a year, this in my opinion is a very risky move, as two big issues have not been resolved yet.
1. The oil law.
2. What to do with the "Son of Iraq" movement.
The proposed oil law that they still are babbling about and can't decide anything about, is still hanging in the air, seemingly as insolvable as the day it was introduced.
The "Son of Iraq" movement, is basically a movement we (the US) set up, by paying mainly Sunni insurgents, to be guards in their own community, the program did later involve Shiite but the cornerstone is the Sunni "Son of Iraq".
The Baghdad regime have been very reluctant to do anything for them, while Shiite have got job offerings, in the government, very few Sunni's have got any offerings.
On the other side, I don't believe that if we pulled out, and there would be another insurgency, that the Iraqi Gov is helpless.
The Iraqi Gov have had two insurgencies, and they were capable of dealing with them both, without any US help.
The first was the Iraqi Governments show of force in Basra, where they ousted the Mahdi army ( AlSadrs's guys, ...the little fat boy that is sitting in Iran), the second was when one former insurgency groups leader was arrested on criminal charges, his whole group rebelled, the Iraqi army fast and furious knocked down that rebellion.
That was all without US help, so I do believe that I am seing enough muscle here by the Iraqis to take care of themselves.
They might not be the first and foremost organized and fierce army in the world, but efficient enough to deal with their own situation.
By the end of the coming month, (end of July ) we will pull out completely from all the bigger cities, and that will essentially be the lythmus test if the Iraqis are completely ready.
In a sense, I have a feeling that either way this will go, it will be good for the Dinar.
The more we withdraw, the more of an independent country this will be, and the more independent, they are, the more of a feeling of taking their own decisions will be at hand.
It feels like this is an end of an era, where the Iraqis have been held by their hand, and have been told what do to, what is good and what is bad.
When there is a big force here, the US, Brits, and other countries, it is so easy to lean on them for advice on ways to go.
When the party is over, and the guests have all gone, then I have a feeling that the Iraqis themselves see the importance of cleaning up after all the guests, their presence is no longer there, and while they are picking up the glasses, and leftover BBQ, they will for the first time clean up in their own house.
That is another feeling, and I am pretty sure they will have a hard look at their undervalued currency at the time they are cleaning their house.
Oil prices are creeping upwards, the Dollar have been pretty weak, and there have not been any significant changes of the Dinar exchange rate for quite some time.
The status quo can not hold, as this would harm the countrys trade. It will put consumer goods out of the hands from too many people, and the internal economy can not be brought to a rolling momentum, if the population does not have any economical power at all.
With this up and coming withdrawals, ( soner or later, whenever) it will put a mark in the timeline for the Iraqis, toward another step in the direction of independence.
Once everybody is out, all advisers go with them, and even if the Iraqis do things very akvardly, they have to do it their way.
Eventually things will straightened up, as with any place that is left alone.
I don't know if this will become a new Babylon, but the Iraqis have for sure time on their side, and a lot of oil in the ground, and that alone is enough for me to conclude that this will come out all right.
Roger
-- June 15, 2009 10:57 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
I appreicate the insight you provide. I happen to agree with your assessments about Iraq. I am still bullish concerning the Dinar and look forward to funding my Iraqi Bank Account. My plans are to keep my current stash of cash and start over with the funding of the Al-Warka account. Once Iraq establishes a banking relationship with either CITI or JP Morgan Chase where a Dinar account can be opened here in the states I will then repatriot the physical notes I hold.
Concerning Hydro Carbon Legislation from what I am reading Parliment has again avoided addressing the issue by passing it off to their successors. I am hopeful after the parlimentary elections in January 2010 can be settled.
I am still of the opinion that an undervalued Dinar helps keep reconstruction costs down; a significant uptick in the exchange rate in theory would make both raw materials and labor costs more expensive thereby increasing the cost of reconstruction.
Movement must be made by the Iraqi's to invest in both privately owned and state run manufacturing enterprises. Agriculture is also a key sector that must be developed. Iraq cannot survive on its huge oil reserves alone.
From listening to Obama he plans on leaving a permanent force of about 50,000 "advisers" inside Iraq. I suppose if the Iraqi's needed help these 50,000 troops could be utilized if necessary.
Back to the Dinar for a moment. Without a strong robust currency the ISX cannot make significant gains. A strong robust Dinar increases purchasing power of its people amd attracts domestic and foreign investment. A strong currency is the underpinning of a strong economy. The Dinar will become the strongest currency in the area but this is a long term perspective.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 16, 2009 9:53 AM ∞
Roger in Iraq, wrote:
Hi Rob.N,
I think you misunderstood the talk about the referendum.
This is a completely new movement, and a possibility that the whole Iraq experience can take one more turn.
The referendum, if it happens, will be a vote by the Iraqis, on the issue, and the most likely outcome, in that case, would then be that we ( and any remaining troops from any other country) need to get out of here. lock stock and barrel, in about a years time.
President Obama or the Iraqi PM, Malaki, will in that case be bound by the vote, and any speculation of what they want, is then meaningless.
It is still to early to say if there will actually be a referendum. The proponenets of the referendum are working on it, and are talking about it, in such a way that it actually are going to happen, despite that it has a luke warm following in the Iraqi administration.
Today we had another sandstorm that moved in, and every major movement outside the wire shut down as medevac can't fly. So I got a little bit more un planned time to be on the pjuter tonight.
From our companys side, you can definitely see strong indicators that the whole Iraqi operation is slimming down.
People over here are starting to get pinkslips, but most reduction in people right now, is natural, like end of contracts, people demobing, people quitting, and medical leaves.
Our company stoped hiring en masse, as they did in the past, and now, you will only get a job here if you are in a very special branch, or have very special skills.
The natural hiring, is about 3 - 400 people a week, to compensate for people leaving, but lately there are no more big "classes" coming out of our headquarter.
So if anyone quits now, he/she will not come back. In fact for about a month and a half ago, a big "class" was going through our headquarter, about 350 people, and some even got onto a flight, to Dubai (our hub for the region), and was then told, ...-"thanks but no thanks". The people both at our processing center, and those that made it all the way to Dubai was dismissed, and sent home.
You can tell by the way they do things here, no one really really know how long time we will stay. It's different news, different "signals" and different directives almost every day.
We had a big meeting for a couple of weeks ago, and one of the "hotshots" from our company was there. I asked him frankly the simple question....-"How long will this job last?"
Well, he gave me a ten minute answer, to me and the whole crowd, and to repeat his answer in a few simple words, it would probably be most exact to say....-"I don't have a clue".
The fact that we will be out of here, is not in question, but when and how is up in the air.
Iraqis (or better say, the Iraqi Gov) have two pressures on them. The first is to apeace the general population in trying to get our troops out of here as soon as possible. The second is the opposite, to hold on to the troops as long as possible in order to build up the Iraqi forces in quantity and quality as much as possible.
The US public have been fed MSM goo for such a long time, that they are sick and tired of Iraq, plus they have much bigger problems at home nowadays anyway, so the whole thing seems to be slipping out of focus, and the general public frankly don't care much more for Iraq anymore.
For the new military recruits that are coming over here today, this is no longer the war his oldest brother fought, when he was here.
There is a deal of a three year stay, that is suppose to be done in a couple of steps. First by the end of July, all US troops will be out of any major city, and in fact will be in Iraq in garrison only.
Then at the same time, the troop reduction will go from around 140.000 to roughly 50.000 within a year and a half.
After that they will not be called US regular forces any longer, they will now be re-named to Advisors.
Ad to that the latest talk about the referendum, a possible direction of the whole affair, that will end up in an Iraqi popular vote, and from that vote, the new direction will be formed.
As it seems right now, no one really have a clue, even high up in both countries administration, Presidents, PM's alike.
They talk and they say that they want this or that, but the real outcome of this, will happen when it happen.
Today, if I would take a bet, I would say that the original three year plan have the best chances of survival,(roughly two and a half year left) but I would actually also take a side bet on the possible Iraqi referendum also.
In older times, the Brits did a splendid work in building up the countries they posessed, they built up the whole infra structure, and the countries formerly under British rule inherited a fully functioning civil and military set up, that was, and still is working pretty good.
I must say that as country builders we are not too strong, but then again, it would be a little bit unfair with a too close comparison, the Brits stayed in general much much longer in the countries they had.
I am a little bit unsure if we really have reached into the Iraqis heart. There are for sure a lot of fashion, you can see, the young Iraqis are weariong, from sunglasses, to T-shirts, and hairdo's. And most young Iraqis can say at least a phrase or two in American English.
The Iraqi troops are starting to look more and more like our troops, carrying the assault gun high, you don't see any hip pistol holsters any more, they carry them as we do, on the thigh, or in the armpit. No one had seen body armor until we came here, but now, it is a must for them to have it.
They have our style of Kevlar helmet, and in the dark it is almost impossible to distinguish between who is who.
The impact on the Iraqis have been hampered very much by the fact that we are living on big bases, and like in Vietnam, we can't go around in Saigon on the streets.
Everywhere there is an American presence, for any reason, it almost always involves guntrucks, convoys, and a force to count on.
This from a military standpoint is a well done move, but the downside is that we don't see the Iraqi man, we don't talk with him in cafe's, we don't ride his taxis and we don't stop at the local corner store and buy a soda.
In that way our presence here is very faceless, and in the same sense, we are just encrouching by force on the Iraqis living space.
That particular contact, is the failure here ( for all the good reasons of course, insurgency, IED's , mortars, a head cut off on AlJazzera and gunfire is not too healthy), but I am sure would there have been a plan to reconstruct this country, and a second invasion, made up by the Corps of Engineers, at the heart of the movement, and regular military would be assigned to protect the projects, we would have seen a lot of difference here.
We would have put people to work almost immediately then....and by now, since 2003 we would have been able to accomplish a whole lot more in bringing this country up into a functioning state.
As it sits now, it is the slow way, let the war simmer out, and when it is safe enough, THEN, the real reconstuction can begin.
It's waste of time, and resources. I am sitting here and following all the US Gov guidelines, it is almost ridicilous, to what a degree small and un important things are enforced, while the whole picture is missed completely.
When the Gov is involved, any action will be very very costly and it has to be overplanned to such an extent that it is just plain dumb.
One unit moved up to Mosul, and we hauled Humvees up there. The unit brought them to our loading point, and they were waiting for us at the unloading point. They were flown up there in Helicopters, in small groups, until all of them had arrived.
So a convoy with trucks, and escort was arranged so we could transport the vehicles up there.
An escort is a pretty big affair, it is a lot of guntrucks, and lot of other planning involved.
The distance is about 120 miles.
Last time I checked, there are four wheels , one in each corner of a Humvee, and they all have machine gun turrents with both 30 and 50 cal, and are fully capable of escorting themselves.
The Humvees, are fully capable of rolling 120 miles.
They could easily have driven that distance in a couple of hours, and have it done between breakfast and lunch, but when we do it the Gov't way it just haaaaave to be complicated.
Doing what I am doing, I need to sign my name on about seven papers every day....and it has to be everyday.
"Gov Compliance" is a term that have everybody and his brother getting spasms over, fully grown men are running around in droves checking out this or that, and have long pieces of paper they have to check off every day.
So, what we are doing in Iraq, is building ourselves big forts, or cities, if you like, and inside the wire we are running around like beavers trying to be in compliance with any obscure rule or regulation.
This thing with human contact with the Iraqis was forgotten somewhere.
When we leave, they for sure must think that we are a people that can't be spontaneous, that we have solid grey faces, and that we for sure like to lock the door around us.
The cultural exchange that took place in Japan or Germany after the war just isn't happening here.
The ordinary Iraqi man may have gotten some whiff here and there, the young pick up some stuff, mostly fashion things, they can listen in on our radios, but the stations are pretty weak, and cover mostly the bases, and it's immediate surroundings.
I just think they're glad we're leaving, and to tell the truth, I will be glad to leave too.
-- June 16, 2009 11:26 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
Have you not enjoyed you're tenure in Iraq? At the beginning when you were in process of getting all in order to leave you seemed excited. I took it that Iraq was a great adventure for you.
Whatever happened to change your mind please continue to be safe. God Speed my friend and be careful.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 17, 2009 2:15 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Its interesting reading you views Roger,cheers for your insight. Matt, this perhaps looks promising...
Iraq submits $70 bln infrastructure rebuilding plan
Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:25am BST
BAGHDAD, June 17 (Reuters) - The Iraqi government has proposed a $70 billion plan for rebuilding the country's war-shattered infrastructure, but will ask companies to accept at least a five-year delay in payment for the projects.A draft law drawn up by the cabinet and expected to be sent to parliament for approval includes $25 billion in investment in housing, $17.8 billion for agriculture and $8 billion for the transport sector, government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said on Wednesday.
However, the funds needed for the projects are not available in the Iraqi government's budget because of a fall in oil prices from last year's record high of more than $147 per barrel.
The authorities therefore plan to finance the construction through credit, direct investment or in a partnership between public agencies and private companies, Dabbagh said in a statement.
The government will pay off the projects five years or more after their completion, depending on individual agreements Dabbagh said.
The sectors and the proposed investments are as follows:
Sector Amount.
Housing $25 billion
Agriculture $17.812 billion
Transportation $8 billion
Water and Sewage $5.539 billion
Healthcare $3.725 billion
Education $3.329 billion
Higher Education and Science $3 billion
Border security $1.5 billion
Communications $595 million
Youth and Sports $500 million
Justice $500 million
Culture $500 million
-- June 17, 2009 2:32 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Russia's LUKOIL confident Iraq oil auction on trackWed Jun 17, 2009 1:08pm BST
BAGHDAD, June 17 (Reuters) - Russian oil company LUKOIL (LKOH.MM) said on Wednesday it was confident after meeting Iraqi officials that the country's auction for service contracts in its prized oilfields will be held as planned at the end of June.LUKOIL chief executive Vagit Alekperov also reconfirmed his company's wish to take part in the bidding, in which development contracts for Iraq's six largest oil producing fields and two undeveloped gas fields are on offer.
"We are very convinced that the Iraqi government has absolutely confirmed the holding of the first bidding round at the end of the month," Alekperov told reporters after meeting Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the oil minister.
"I expressed the wish of the company to take part in the first bidding round," he said, speaking through an interpreter.
The auction for the contracts, which pay oil developers a fixed fee rather than a share of oil revenues, had been thrown into doubt by objections from parliament and Iraq's South Oil Co., which produces the bulk of Iraqi oil exports.
Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani and senior executives from the South Oil Co. have been summoned by parliament to answer questions about the contracts, which are due to be auctioned in two bidding rounds. [ID:nLG362181]
Shahristani is under fire for not boosting Iraqi production quickly enough. Crude output is at 2.3 - 2.4 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the rate under Saddam Hussein.
Some parliamentarians criticise the oil contracts as being too close to production sharing deals, rather than fixed-fee service contracts. Others prefer production sharing deals.
In a statement, Maliki welcomed LUKOIL's interest.
"We welcome international companies to work in Iraq, including Russian companies. LUKOIL is at the head of the companies we welcome for its high level of expertise."
-- June 17, 2009 2:42 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
This has been posted over at IIF from the Pukmedia website. The translator used is from google. Pay special attention to number 2. Thanks to arh777 at IIF for posting the article.
__________________________________________________________Elapsed since the first week of the June 2009 year, a very happy surprise to the Iraqi Council of Ministers, which was carved federal ideas for the redress of refraction of the federal budget.
1- اما الاستدانة من صندوق النقد الدولي او البنك الدولي للانشاء والتعمير بعد ان جزعت الدول المانحة من الازمة الاقتصادية الدولية فقصرت يدها عن اعطاء العراق ما وعدت بها من مساعدات على شكل قروض ومنح. 1 - As for borrowing from the International Monetary Fund or the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development dismayed that after the crisis, donor countries, international economic Vqsrt hand to give Iraq and promised assistance in the form of loans and grants.
2- استخدام الاحتياطي المركزي للدولة التي اعلم عنها لاعادة الثقة بالاقتصاد العراقي وبالتالي اعادة عملية الى التعافي فما حدى بالبنك المركزي الى استهجان مثل هذا الطلب اذ في غضون الاعلان عن النية فقد الدينار قدرته امام الدولار بثمانية دنانير. 2 - Use of the central reserve of the State, which I know to restore confidence in the Iraqi economy and thus bring the process to recover what had caused the Central Bank to censure such a request as in a declaration of intent has its dinar against the dollar eight dinars.
فكانت البشرى بطلب حكمة الاقليم من الحكومة المركزية ربط حقل "طاووق" مع الأنبوب النفطي الواصل الى "جيهان" التركي الذي طالما كان هدفاً للإرهاب للحيلولة دون استفادة العراق من التصدير عن طريق البحر الأبيض المتوسط بعد ان سد القراصنة طريق باب المندب الى البحر المتوسط عبر قناة السويس لقد انفرطت العقدة، لأن تمكن الإقليم من شحن النفط عبر كوردستان الآمنة فلم تعد تنفع تخريب الانبوب الخارج الخارج من حقول كركوك والتي وراءها جزما امكانيات دول متآمرة. Was the request of the wisdom of the human region from the central government to link the "Tauouk" with the oil pipeline connecting to "Jehan," Turkey's long been a target of terrorism, to prevent Iraq from taking advantage of export through the Mediterranean Sea after the pirates through a dam Bab to the Mediterranean through the channel Suez has Anfrtt node, because the region was able to ship oil through Kurdistan is no longer the safe use and abroad to sabotage the pipeline from the fields outside of Kirkuk, which was beyond the possibilities of working in assertive.
بعض الاشخاص والمنظمات المكلفة بمهاجمة الكورد وكوردستان داخل وخارج الإقليم انكشفت تماماً كونها تعمل لأجندات غير وطنية ولا عراقية، وأذكر أحد الاعلاميين انقطعت أنفاسه حين سمع ربطنا نفط الاقليم بنفط كركوك المتجه صوب جيهان التركي فقالها على مضض، وأردف "ولكننا لانعترف بعقود كوردستان التي وقعت مع شركات اجنبية" ولكن ماذا فعل الحدث: Some people and organizations charged with attacking the Kurds and Kurdistan within and outside the region being fully exposed to the working agendas of national and non-Iraqi journalists and remind one of his breath when he heard had been linked with oil oil province of Kirkuk to Ceyhan, the Turkish-bound Faqalha reluctantly, and was "but we Anaterv contracts that Kurdistan has signed with companies foreign, "but what did the event:
1- اوقف عمليات التخريب من تاريخه لنفط كركوك ترى لو كانت كركوك ضمن الاقليم ألما ازدهر العراق اكثر. 1 - The history of the sabotage of the Kirkuk oil if the view within the province of Kirkuk, Iraq has flourished more pain.
2- زاد انتاج النفط من 1.850 مليون برميل للتصدير الى 1.900 مليون برميل يومياً. 2 - The production of oil from the 1,850 million barrels for the export of 1,900 million barrels per day.
3- ارتفاع اسعار النفط للبرميل الواحد الى 72 دولار للبرميل جعل المورد الشهري للبترول العراقي ثلاثة مليارات والمطلوب للميزانية فصار الوارد 4.197 مليار. 3 - The high price of oil per barrel to 72 dollars a barrel to make the supplier's monthly three billion Iraqi oil and the required budget and became the 4,197 billion.
4- عاد الدينار الى الارتفاع مقابل الدولار بعد ان زال الخطر عن الرصيد الاحتياطي من العملات الصعبة والذهب لدى البنك المركزي. 4 - returned to the dinar rise against the dollar after the danger remains that the balance of foreign exchange reserves and gold in the Central Bank.
الآن بدأ يطفو على السطح دورة التراخيص الأولى التي اعلنت في تموز العام الماضي فتارة تعقد اجتماعاتها في الخارج واخرى في الداخل وتدخل الرتل الخامس ابتداءً من الخبراء النفطيين القدماء وانتهاء بابسط موظفي الوزراة تحاول دول العالم من فيتنام من الجزائر من اسبانيا من بلغاريا من الهند من اليابان واندونسيا عد دول الـ(GAT) العظيمة وايادي الموظفين تتراجف جراء اشتداد عصا محاربة الفساد فبات كلامهم اختزال وانفاسهم منقطعة جراء امكانية قبل 35 شركة من اصل 125 شركة فقدتم تجزأة قبولهم على مرحلتين: Now began to float on the surface of the first session of the licensing, announced in July last year at times of their meetings held abroad and the other at home and enter the fifth column of oil experts from the ancient and the simplest end of the staff of the ministry is trying to countries of the world from Vietnam to Algeria, Spain, Bulgaria from India, Japan and Indonesia back of the (GAT) and the great hands of staff Ttrajv stick by the intensification of the fight against corruption and reduced to shreds, their words cut off by the possibility of their breath before the 35 companies out of 125 companies Vkdtm indivisible accepted in two phases:
الاولى اختزال الشروط ورفض التي لا تنطبق عليها الشروط. First to reduce the conditions and refused to apply the terms and conditions.
الثانية طلبت منها تقديم العطاءات النهائية بعد دراستها اقرت وستعلن في غضون اسبوعين ولما تمكن الكادر الجنوبي من زيادة انتاجها 35 الف برميل يوميا والشمال اضافت 50 الف برميل عدا الزيادة الكوردستاني لـ100 الف برميل وارتفاع الاسعار الدولية حدا بالبعض الى تحريض موظفين في الجنوب لطلب رفض التخاليص التي ستعلن على اعتبار ان لدينا الامكانية في زيادة الانتاج وطنيا فاعادونا الى المربع الاول وسيتحرك بعض الأميين بشؤون النفط اعلاميا كي يحاربوا الاشباح وقديما قالوا (لاتستبدلو حلاوة اليقين بمرارة الشك)،، فالعراق كمن احترق بيته لا تهمه مصدر المساعدة المهم أن تكون له فعلا امكانية توفير المساعدة ولكن يبقى على رأس العازفين عن المساعدة الذين لا يقرون قانون النفط والغاز فلو كان مقرراً لكان هنالك مجلس نفط والذي يتكون من رئيس الوزراء أو من يندب عنه وزير النفط ووزيرا التخطيط والمالية ومحافظ البنك المركزي، بالإضافة الى محافظ المحافظة التي فيها الانتاج مهم للاقتصاد العراقي. The second asked them to submit bids after the final examination and will be approved within two weeks to enable staff to increase its production in the south of 35 thousand barrels per day, the North said 50-barrel increase, except for Kurdistan 100 a barrel and rising international prices, an end to the incitement of some staff in the South rejected the request, which will Althallis considering that we have the possibility to increase production and national Vaadona to square one and will move some of the affairs of the oil-illiterate media in order to fight an old ghost and said (to Atstbdlo bitter sweet uncertainty doubt), Iraq is like someone who does not care about his house burned down the source of assistance was important to actually have the possibility of providing assistance, but remains at the head of the players who do not recognize the assistance the oil and gas law had been planned for if there was the oil, which consists of the Prime Minister or by the physical and the Oil Minister and Minister of Planning and Finance and the Governor of the Central Bank, in addition to the Governor of the province where production is important for the Iraqi economy.
الخبر الثالث الذي بدأ يصعد هو حول الوقود الزرقاء الغاز السائل وقد بدأت كوردستان مع خبراء من الأمة العربية وشركة "دانا غاز" لها مدير عام تضح التقوى على وجهه، فهذا الرجل أقام مديرية متواضعة تخطط، فما أن أعلنت عن استثمارات الغاز الطبيعي حتى انصبت عليها العروض فباعت نصفها الى شركة نمساوية بـ350 مليون دولار لأنه من المؤكد أن الغاز العراقي والمصري والقطري سترتبط بخطوط (Tab co) الذي يجهز وجنوب أوروبا متنافسة مع روسيا التي اتفقت مع تركيا على تزويد اسرائيل بالغاز السائل وربطت نفسها بخط أنبوب للغاز غير التي تمر عبر أوكرانيا لكي تتحاشى ابتزازات سعرية مستقبلا بعد ازمة العام الماضي بالمناسبة الايرانيين ايضا اتفقوا مع تركيا على استخدام الانبوب الخاص بـ(Tab co) ورفضوا الاسعار المدعومة التي كانوا يعطونها لتركيا التي دخلت السوق الدولية للمتاجرة بالبترول ومشتقاته بعد ان صارت عندها تقاسيم ثلاثة خطوط آخرها ستأتي من كوردستان العراق، والأخوان في البرلمان ما زالوا يتناقشون في هل "البيضة من الدجاجة أم الدجاجة من البيضة". News began to reach the third is about the blue liquid gas fuel has begun to Kurdistan with experts from the Arab nation and the company, "Dana Gas" has the director general of piety shown on the face, this modest man has established the Directorate of planning, it announced on the investments of the natural gas so that the focus of presentations Vbat half of the Austrian company 350 million dollars for it is certain that the Egyptian and Iraqi gas will be linked to the country and the lines (Tab co), which processes and Southern Europe competing with Russia, which agreed with Turkey to supply gas to Israel has linked the same liquid and gas pipe line, however, that pass through the Ukraine in order to avoid blackmail price crisis, the future after the way last year, the Iranians also agreed with Turkey on the use of the pipeline's own (Tab co) and rejected the subsidized prices that they give to Turkey, which entered the international market for trading oil and petroleum products after the facial expression will become the last three lines come from Kurdistan of Iraq and the Muslim Brotherhood in the parliament are still debating whether the "chicken or the egg from the chicken from the egg."
بقي لي كتعليق ورجاء لصحافتنا وأعضاء والتحالف خاصة خلق ثقافة نفطية لأنفسهم لأن النفط سبب بلاء العراق ومصائبه، أما الكرد فشاءت الأقدار أن تضم أرضهم هذه المادة التي صارت عصب النشاطات الاقتصادية للانسان، وبالتالي أكسير الحياة السياسية لشعب كوردستان الذي دخل من الجهة الصحيحة لتحقيق المصالح العراقية والكوردية. Left me comment and hope to our press and members of the Alliance, especially to create a culture of oil because the oil for themselves the cause of the scourge of Iraq and Massaibh, and the Kurds Fshaet include their fate this article, which became the backbone of economic activities of human beings and, therefore, the political kiss of life for the people of Kurdistan, which came from the right to achieve the interests of the Iraqi flag.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 17, 2009 3:21 PM ∞
Roger in Iraq wrote:
Rob N.
Change of mind or change of heart.???
Naa, it's more like the job itself does not lend itself to any bigger excitement.
It is an adventure in itself, it takes some adrenaline to not bail out when we are taking our trucks out of the fortification , out on the roads, and possibly encounter enemy activity..
I have seen guys that just can't take it, but also been astonished at a couple of female drivers, that are doing the job as good as any man around here. One looks just like a picture poster of a typical Grandma.
I have seen my share of action, and in that sense I can tell stories when I come home.
It's the place itself that gets to you after a while. You are living in a military base, and are under strict control, the do's and dont's are plentiful, and the paperpushers, that are running around with compliance checksheets are plentiful.
It is a desert land, and that means sand gravel, stone and dust. Trees are sparse, and unless it has irrigation, it is dead barren land. Military in general are not known for doing or building things to apeace the aestetic mind of people, they want ugly straight forward function, and that's it.
If you are into photography, you will see the same concrete barriers days after day, other than that, you see fields after field with no green on it, and once you have taken a photo of all your friends, in all kinds of silly positions, the trucks, and the military, there is really nothing that catches the eye as spectacular.
I see the same faces, same worn out trucks, same concrete slabs, same gravel fields, sand fields, and same war junkyards (big and frequent) everyday.
Outside the wire, (on the Iraqi side) ) it is trash, trash, trash and trash, not to mention junk, junk and more junk.
The airquality is beneath any human standard of living. The Iraqis burn anything, plastic, tires, and I mean anything that can burn. Going from here to Baghdad, a short trip on about 25-30 miles, and you will go through thick clouds of smoke on occasion, the contens of what they are burning, is only a guess, depending on if it will hurt your nose, mouth, sinuses, eyes, or a combination of it all.
Dust, on top of it all is everywhere, it is a fine talcum powder dust, that will engulf everything. It can make daytime dark when a dust storm moves in. Today we had one of the heavier dust storms moving in, it actually started yesterday, and at peak intensity, I estimate that the sightline could have not been more than 30 to 40 feet. It was so intense that we had an all "no movement" order issued, meaning, no vehicles could move. (We snuck out in a vehicle anyway to go to chow, no one would see the vehicle anyway in that dusty soup, only to find out that the chowhall was closed due to heavy dust storm.)When all this is happening, I wear a particle mask, I bought on WalMart, when I was home (19.95...hey the Chineese made at least one person happy), but most wear only a bandana over their face. I walked right over to the computer room after my shift, and as I sit right now, I can make a big dust cloud by slapping any part of my clothing. ( the dust storm however gave me the benefit of getting me a little bit more time to write on the pjuter)
A good day, will still have a thin layer of dust, you can see the sun is always rising or setting in a red dust layer.
There is plenty of bugs flying around, but there is also a complete airforce of bats chasing them. We have an aircircus around every light, every night, and one type of bats, I swear they are the size of seagulls. I have never seen them upclose but to me they seem to be the size of the four engine type.
I do 12 hours a day, 7 days a week uninterrupted until I have R&R. (Rest and Recreation). My next R&R is up by the end of October, so in the meanwhile I just do a day at the time.
Then I sleep inbetween, only to do the same thing again next day.
In this part of the country, we are not allowed to run convoys in daytime, so we go on nightshift, driving in the dark.
Mostly you see another truck in front of you, and a dust cloud inbetween.
On rare occasions we have enemy activity, then the sky will be lit up by all kind of flashes, tracers, flares and you name it.
Then it is back to "normal" again. Plain boooooring.
It's funny also how dubbed off you get after a while about the prospects of getting hit, hurt or killed.
The three first days, you watched for mortars, tracers, and anything suspicious.
As time goes by, you don't even remove your earplug loudspeakers, because it is such a cool song ZZ Top is doing, and you prefer to have them in, in order to hear the rest of the song, while you are watching tracers.(Yes I have listen to ZZ Top "Tube Snake Boogie" , and eating strawberry pop tarts while watching a war going on,...kind of surrealistic).
In the beginning, you jumped when you heard artillery firing, after a while, if you are discussing with friends something and an artillery round is fired, no one even stops and comments about it, the conversation just goes on.
No one rubbernecks when a drone, or Apache attack helicoper flies by.
In the berginning, you always wanted to have a photo taken standing on an Abrahams, or Bradley, but now when you see a row of those vehicles, you don't even turn the head, it's like another teenage pick up truck in the neighborhood, who cares.
If the job would involve a little bit of variety, and change in scenery, it would perhaps get my attention, and liking a bit better.
I am however aware that I am part of history in making, and as an adventure, well yes....it will do.
When everything is said and done, no one is holding me here against my will, I can pack my bags and leave at any time I want. The draw is a decent tax free pay in the six figure range. This job will support the troops, and at the same time it will give me the financial possibility of a future by my own choosing.
I have all the hopes and good luck wishes for the Iraqis, I have also studied the subject of the Iraqi Dinar to such an extent that I think I have a decent clue, and from that stand point I think it will work itself out to be ok when everything is said and done.
So Rob N, to go back to the original question, no I have not changed my mind in anything actually, I may have changed attitude, and perspective because I have seen a country first hand that have unique problems, but also hopes and a bright future, but as to my own being here....no Rob N. I don't belong here, and in that sense I am happy to leave. I will try to stay as long as possible, until layed off, and when that happens...well nobody really knows.
Iraq belongs to the Iraqis, they have to take care of their own garbage and junk, and for me....I am looking forward to a happy life in the US, where I belong.
As a westerner, I could never be a happy man living here, so I won't. Work, yes, but after that...I'm atta here.
I am pretty confident that we are at a point where we can say, that we have given the Iraqis the knowledge how to fish, and they can feed themselves now.
No man, or country can take on it's shoulder to be responsible for ALL the starving children in the world.
Some will die, and some will make it.
You can help some of them, and I think that is what we have done with the Iraqis now, we're starting to see the end of our engagement here.
Once were out, there is no one left to blame.
They will then look upon themselves as the true owners and rulers of this country.
That particular step is a very good "Dinar step".
Gotta go and crash....see ya all.
Roger
-- June 17, 2009 11:05 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Roger,
I understand now your comments of wanting to leave Iraq. It makes prefect sense to me. Just hang in there until they lay you off. You may even decide that you may want to quit after awhile, who knows.
I think that without colors, some trees and advanced standard of living that we have come to expect in the USA, Iraq by comparision is in the dark ages. But there is one thing for sure, it is a nation that will come to enjoy these advances, once its government starts to function properly and oil again starts to rise...as I predict it will.
We in the USA have started to relax about the price of oil...as there are no demonstrations about the price of oil...at least until the price reaches $4.00 a gal. Obama has not responded to the old campaign slogan "Drill Baby Drill." It looks like the Democrats have been in closed meetings on all types of issues, i.e.; universal health care, energy issues (and of course, no drilling for oil); military issues of redirecting troops and bring them home; fixing the economy by a number of spending measures etc. The massive spending and huge debt on the nation is very worrisome to many of us Roger. But, the democrats seem to know what is best for all of us (like big brother).
We are even seeing liberties that we have taken for granted being stripped from freedom loving americans. First amentment rights (the right to say what one believes) like being anti-abortion; or a christian in this nation is now being persecuted. Pastors are now not able to preach what they believe the bible teaches (for fear of new hate crimes legislation) on gay rights are being pushed on families that do not share these values. Now pastors/christian families can be arrested for their beliefs. The education system is being saturated with gay rights teaching in our school system as equal with hetersexuals lifestyles and this is being taught to our children as right and correct. All this in the name of civil rights.
In California, (where you are from Roger), gay marriage was legalized and the first thing that was done is a school teacher invited her class to her gay marriage. That got my attention. Gays have not proven that their life style is in fact a legitimate dysfunction scientifically. They cannot pro-create and from my natural observation, this looks dysfunctional. If in fact, their life style is not a natural occurance, then it is not a legitimate lifestyle. It is my thought that we should not then act life this life style is the same as the relationship of a man and a woman. And, therefore, we should not allow this teaching inside our educational system. Many religious families are turning to home schooling and research is showing that this trend if going up.
I am not however against contractual obligations that people in this life style want to set up for themselves. I am just strongly for marriage as being designed for a man and woman. Given the homo-sexual life style banner that they have a right to be like this.... than my response is that I have a right to believe as I do and not to have their lifestyles influence my family's values in our secular institutions of the USA.
This brings me to another topic. Obama's statement that the "USA is not a christian nation." I believe, Obama is trying to use a revisionist history to get around our Christian heritage in the founding fathers designing our civil institutions in the christian faith. He is trying to put judges on the bench that deny christian values and rights to christians i.e., Judge Hamilton (who was formally employed by Acorn) and anti-christian judge and who the american bar association states he is not qualified to be a judge.
Judge David Hamilton has been nominated to be the next judge to sit on the 7th District court of appeals. On June 4, 2009, a committee voted 12-7 along strict party lines, to forward the nomination of Judge David Hamilton, the anti-Jesus Judge, he same judge who issued controversial rulings banning public prayers offered "in Jesus name," (but allowing prayers to Allah), and hastening the abortion of unborn children. This vote came after voters had already sent in 600,000 faxed petitions to the entire Senate opposing Hamilton, proving that politicians are not listening to the citizens of this country. Now this anti-Jesus Judge Hamilton will face the full Senate, and the threat of filibuster by the pro-faith, pro-family Senator James Inhofe (R-OK).
As you can expect, I was one of those citizens who faxed congress and my objections to this insanity went unheard. In our USA history, our founding fathers often prayed "In the year of our Lord, (whatever year it was 2009), In Jesus Name. Amen." This was common practice...as cited by The Christian Life and Character of The Civil Institutions of the United States by Benjamin F. Morris. This book was a writing that was written after President Lincoln was assassinated and this man went back and researched the writings of our founding fathers. He found that many of these men had profound christian beliefs approx. 80-90 per cent of these men. Our civil institutions (courts, treasury dept, civil governments were placed under the authority of God's government and his holy laws. These laws being founded under the ten commandments. And then, we have the Judge who was disbarred due to the ten commandments being on court property. The judge was correct. It is our civil society that has forgotten our christian hertiage that our forefathers left us. We are now witnessing Obama and liberal democrats revision of our USA history--- as we no longer teach the foundations of what our forefathers stood for.
Well anyway, I think you have gotten my soap box two cents as of now. America is not what it use to be Roger, we will be talking about rights of two, three and four partners for marriage soon--- as an offshoot of this subject on gay rights. We as american's are even seeing laws being put into place to protect child molestors. It is unbelievable what has happened to our civil society ...once we have left our foundational trust in God.
While our country maybe a little better than sand storms, we appear to be a decaying civilization Roger. I wonder if you will even recognize it when you get back due to where our government is heading. But we will have green trees, colored leaves and country side that is green and pleasant to the eyes. I hope you have a good R-N-R when you come back to the states.
Laura Parker
-- June 18, 2009 5:18 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
UPDATE 1-Iraq central bank to cut policy rate to 7 percent
Iraq's central bank will cut its policy rate to 7 percent from 9 percent as of June 21, a senior advisor to the bank said on Thursday.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 18, 2009 2:54 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
1st licenses' round represents re-domination of companies on Iraqi oil, Says MP 18/06/2009 14:26:00
Baghdad (NINA) –Independent MP Wail Abdul Lateef confirmed that the first round of licenses for oil contracts represent a return of the Major Oil companies' domination on Iraqi oil as well as a waste for its revenues.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 18, 2009 2:55 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Kuwait has "rightful" claim to sovereignty, territorial integrity -- de Mistura
Politics 6/18/2009 7:18:00 PM
UNITED NATIONS, June 18 (KUNA) -- The Special Representative to Iraq Staffan de Mistura on Thursday said Kuwait has "rightful" claims to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Iraq, too, is "rightly" believing that it is time to come out from under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
Briefing the Security Council on the periodic report of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the activities of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), de Mistura said that regarding the outstanding Chapter 7 mandates, the Iraqi government is "rightly feeling that the time to turn the page is long overdue." The word "rightly" was not written in the original draft text of his speech.
"Kuwait, for its part has a righful claim to its sovereignty and territorial integrity," he added.
De Mistura did not read from the original text of the speech the following paragraph which he has crossed out: "It (Kuwait) needs assurances that abolition of Security Council resolutions does not imply abdication of responsibility for maintaining the integrity of the border as per resolution 833 of 1993." De Mistura said the Iraqi Government has shown "positive signs of increasing cooperation by inviting, for instance, a Kuwaiti delegation to Iraq to pursue the issue of missing Kuwaitis and speeding up the deployment of an Iraqi ambassador to Kuwait.
"We, on our part, should exert every effort in building on the current momentum. There are various creative options being floated that I hope will be discussed by the Security Council in the near future," he said.
The meeting was chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu given "the importance" of the issue.
Iraqi Ambassador Hamid Al-Bayati highlighted during the same council session the steps his government took to deserve to come out from under Chapter 7. He told the council that Iraq has already started consultations with the Secretary-General on the review of relevant council resolutions in an attempt to come out from under Chapter 7.
"Based on our review of those resolutions, we find that Iraq has fulfilled all its obligations arising pursuant to those resolutions, both with regard to the impact of the occupation of Kuwait and to issues related to arms," he told the council.
He mentioned that Iraq has fulfilled all those obligations. Iraq, he noted, recognized the State of Kuwait and its borders and both states continue to cooperate for the maintenance of border pillars. Furthermore, he said that Iraq has returned the remains of 236 missing Kuwitis found in Iraq and 4,539 audio and video tapes.
He announced that Iraq will hand over to Kuwait next week 24 boxes containing old currency and stamps.
On the compensation issue, he said Iraq has, up to last April, paid USD 27.1 billion and there are USD 25.5 billion still due which is a "heavy burden on Iraq, which needs the money for services, reconstruction and development." "We hope that the Secretary-General and the Security Council will assist Iraq in returning to the international status it held before the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, an invasion which was one of the most atrocious crimes commited by Saddam Hussein and that the Iraqi people continue to pay a heavy price for," he urged.-- De Mistura also told the council "I firmly believe we are at a critical juncture to be able to contribute to a significant improvement of the climate of cooperation taking into account concerns of both countries" Kuwait and Iraq.
Most council memberts ignored to raise the Chapter VII issue in their statements in the council, saying simply they are looking forward to Ban's report later this month. They concentrated, instead, on UNAMI activities and the "progress" it achieved on many fronts.
De Mistura told the council that he is "proud of what this mission has achieved in a short period of time and by our joint successes with the Iraqis in overcoming what sometimes appeared to be insurmountable challenges." "Together we have turned challenges and crises into opportunities," he added.
The past two years, he noted, have witnessed the Iraqis becoming "progressively fatigued over civil-strife, slowly shedding sectarian divisions, seeking to reconcile ... and (bridging) their difference for the country's return to normality." The Iraqi people, he stressed, have shown "remarkable resilience." They are now more than ever able to "determine the course of events in their own country." The recent attacks on civilians, he argued, should be seen as attempts by "isolated elements or groups trying to produce a feeling of insecurity, but they are not capable of destabilizing the country." "The future looks moderately bright and there is growing hope. If the Iraqis can avoid or defuse tensions, if they are capable of seeing changes in their daily lives through sustainable security gains, delivery of basic services and more political inclusiveness, all of which are realistic goals, then Iraq will flourish," he concluded.US envoy to the UN Susan Rice stopped short of saying whether Iraq deserves to come out from under Chapter VII, but told the council that the "US firmly supports Iraq's continuing development as a sovereign and democratic nation ... A country that contributes to the peace and security of the region. A country that is sovereign stable and self-reliant." "To build on the progress we have made, regional and international support for Iraq is essential. We encourage all countries to help Iraq meet its goals and to support the Iraqi people as they pursue prosperity and peace," she added.
"the US remains deeply committed to Iraq" even though it plans, in accoredance with the US-Iraq Security agreement, to withdraw its combat troups from Iraqi cities, towns and villages no later than the end of this month, thus paving the way to the withdrawal of all US forces by 2011.
That withdrawal, she insisted, "in no way diminishes our long term partnership with Iraq." Until then, she noted, the US will continue our firm support for the Iraqi people as they assume full responsibility for their sovereign nation. We will continue to build a strong long-lasting strategic relationship with Iraq, one that respects the sovereignty and serves the intersts of both our countries." "As a friend and a strategic partner, we will work with Iraq's government to strengthen democratic institutions, uphold the rule of law and develop peaceful and cooperative relations with its neighbours," she said.
Libyan ambassador Ibrahim Dabbashi bluntly told the council that the time has come for Iraq to come out from Chapter VII and that the "occupying forces, " in reference to US forces, should respect human rights in Iraq.Libyan ambassador Dabbashi later told KUNA that even though Libya calls for the council to allow Iraq to come out from under chapter VII, this does not mean that it should ignore Kuwait's concerns which are "legitimate," and this is the view of most council members.
"There are pending issues and there are kuwaiiti concerns which have to be taken into consideration before we move to the stage of letting Iraq come out from under chapter VII," he told KUNA.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the council that Iraq has taken "encouraging strides" towards achieving the objectives set forth in numerous council resolutions and assumed increasing ownership of its future.
"This is actually a welcome development. In fact, we look forward to the time where Iraq will not be discussed as an issue of concern for the maintenance of international peace and seucirity, but where Iraq itself will contribute to regional and global peace andsecurity on its own merits. And we feel thatwe are getting closer to this point," he added.
He further stressed that "indeed, we need to acknowledge the good work done by the Iraqi Government and people, and express our readiness and willingness to stand with them in tackling the challenges lying ahead." He later told reporters in answer to a question by KUNA and by other reporters that "we are in favour of good neighbourly relations between Iraq and all the neighbours and we hope that this temporary situation will end and that we will have consensus ... We have to wait for the Secretary-General report." Iraqi envoy Al-Bayati later told reporters in answer to a question that "our relationship with Kuwait is friendly and we seek to solve the pending issues bilaterally," noting that there are issues that have nothing to do with Kuwait, such as disarmament.
On the issues of compensation, debts, the border, and the missing Kuwaitis, he said "these, we can discuss with the Kuwaiti government through friendly and brotherly dialogues in order to reach results acceptable to both parties." Asked by KUNA if the bilateral negotiations would not be more helpful if Iraq appointed an ambassador to Kuwait, especially that Kuwait sent its ambassador to Iraq months ago, he said "of course, we are planning to send ambassadors to Kuwait and many other countries, including Egypt." Kuwait wants outstanding issues with Iraq to be tackled under the UN umbrella.
De Mistura, on the other hand, was asked later by KUNA why he chose not to read a paragraph from his original speech and which said that Kuwait "needs assurances that abolition of council resolutions does not imply abdication of responsibility for maintaiing the integrity of the border as per resolution 833 of 1993," and said said he wanted to leave "a little bit of space for discussions. It is not for me to say this."At the end of the council session, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu read out a presidential statement, on behalf of all council members, in which they reaffirmed the council's commitment to the "independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Iraq," and emphasized the "importance of the stability and security of Iraq for its people, the region, and the international community." The members commended the "important efforts" made by the Iraqi government to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, to improve security and public order and combat terrorism and sectarian violence across the country, and reiterated its support to the people and the government in their efforts to build a secure, stable, united and democratic country, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights.
They also reaffirmed their "full support" for UNAMI's work in the country, underscored its "important role" in supporting the Iraqi people and government to promote dialogue, ease tension, and develop a just and fair solution for the national's disputed internal boundaries, and "strongly endorsed" its continued assistance in preparation for the upcoming elections.
They finally thanked departing de Mistura for his work in Iraq and wished him well as he moves on to his next job as deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP).
No successor has been appointed yet. (end) sj.bs KUNA 182132 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 18, 2009 2:59 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
France unflinching on Kuwait borders, seeks Iraq-Kuwait dialogue
Politics 6/18/2009 7:15:00 PM
By John KeatingPARIS, June 18 (KUNA) -- French officials said on Thursday that while they would like to see Iraq fully reintegrate the international community, this should not take place at the expense of Kuwaits borders or Iraqs legal obligations to the Gulf nation.
"The Iraqi and Kuwaiti authorities have been engaged in bilateral discussions under the auspices of the United Nations with a view to progress on the sensitive question of the missing during the Gulf War and on that of the (stolen) goods and State Archives," French Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Frederic Desagneaux said in answer to a KUNA question.
"We support all steps forward which can be made in Iraqi-Kuwaiti relations, " he added.
"We notably support the discussions undertaken between the two countries in Amman May 19-20 last. The initiatives taken by the two countries are welcome and come to prop up the complete restoration of Iraqi sovereignty in the respect for its international obligations, and concerning its borders with Kuwait, (respect for) resolutions 773 and 833," the official said in his response.
France also encouraged dialogue between Iraq and Kuwait to resolve outstanding issues that include billions of dollars in compensation and war reparations for the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Kuwait is also seeking clarification on hundreds of missing nationals who were kidnapped or abducted by Iraqi occupation and retreating forces and who have not been heard from since.
There is a move underfoot to support a lifting of UN sanctions voted against Iraq in 1990 which were adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter which makes them legally binding on the international community and liable to be implemented through force, as was the case in 1991.
Indeed, diplomats here made it very clear that any effort to change or meddle with the Kuwaiti border accords agreed in the past would not be tolerated by France.
One diplomat said France would be totally "intransigent" on this question and "will not budge" on resolutions agreed upon in this framework.
All agree on the need to re-integrate Iraq and give it its place in the region, but not at the expense of its "obligations" with regard to Kuwait, the diplomat indicated.
The return of Iraq implies an examination by the Security Council of the juridical ramifications of the resolutions voted during the Iraqi dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, the French Foreign Ministry indicated here.
This examination is ongoing and under UN Resolution 1859 of last December a report is due to be submitted to the Security Council on this issue at the end of June or early July.
President Nicolas Sarkozy, who received here in April Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, has already said he favours lifting the constraints of the 1990 resolutions from Iraq but both men said at a meeting here that "nobody should feel left out" of any agreement and Iraq should meet its obligations.
There are several pending issues involving the two neighbors, namely war compensation claims, the POWs issue and retrieval of the Kuwaiti archive. (end) jk.rk KUNA 181915 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 18, 2009 3:00 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Warka bank has now up-graded their system to handle the ISX application on-line. The information below is from their site and is all I currently know. I'll apply for a dealing account and post on here when I get some more info. Folks, this is GOOD news!!!
=================================================================================================================================
E-Trading
Electronic dealing concept is quiet new for the Middle East and this systems going to do all of the operations that are related to the dealing as buy, sell, transfer, reports and financial performance for the client portfolio.The electronic dealing system has its own privacy, therefore every client opens a dealing account, he will be given client id and a password and this system goes along with the situation in Iraq especially in the current time, because the client confidence in Iraq stock market has been deeply decreased, so the system will give a new level of confidence and privacy that we can reach the confidence class of our client.
Iraqi stock market is taking a new step towards, that it will start to apply the new system "E-Trading" , and as well as we know that Warkaa Bank one of his aims is to go harmony with the development that is happening in-out side area. And the market will connect the new system with Iraqi stock market, so it can provide this service for his clients, and as usual Warkaa bank is the first bank in that will give this service and not that only .., also it will give this service with the highest level of secrecy and privacy. That our client can do all of his operations without return back to any person.
Hoping to be at our clients trust level of us.
-- June 19, 2009 11:51 AM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Tsalagi,
I admire your enthusiasm about the e-trading. I would like to get into it myself, but my worry is for the minimum share purchase that Steve mentioned in a previous post a couple of months ago, about 200,000 shares. It sounds very expensive. I wonder what minimum selling is too.
BritishKnite.
-- June 21, 2009 1:50 PM ∞
steve wrote:
Hi Britishknite,
Yes the min buy in on any comp is 200,000 shares
But if you only want 50,000 in a comp, no probs, buy the 200,000 then sell 150,000 then do the same too as many as you want to get 50,000 of as many as you like, its a bit more faffing around but it duz work
Steve.-- June 22, 2009 2:55 AM ∞
steve wrote:
B.K.
I forgot there is no min for selling, as they are your shares to do with as you wish
Untill you own them you have to buy qty as set by the ISX once you have got them their yours
S.-- June 22, 2009 3:02 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Britishknite,
Got this response back from Warka regarding E-Trade....looks like we're still in a holding pattern.
===========================================================================================================================
Dear Mr. Xxxxx,Please note that this service is still under development and once completed
a post will be placed on our news bulletin.Best regards,
Mxxxxxxx X. Ixxx
Deputy Managing Director
Senior Executive
International Affairs
-- June 22, 2009 9:16 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
More information, on CNBC, regarding the efforts related to getting the ISX on-line.
-- June 23, 2009 7:42 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Tsalagi,
Thanks for the post, very encouraging.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 24, 2009 10:11 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
NoozzView; Blair to give public evidence
Britain's embarrassing U-turn on the nature of the forthcoming inquiry into the 2003 invasion of Iraq and subsequent war there intensified further on June 23 with the disclosure from the chair of the investigation, that former PM Tony Blair – the main architect of the conflict along with George Bush – will have to give the majority of his evidence in public.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 24, 2009 10:13 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Clinton confirms US commitments towards Democratic Iraq 24/06/2009 16:45:00
Baghdad (NINA) -The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed her country's commitment towards "peaceful and democratic Iraq" as well as consolidating active partnership between the two countries.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 24, 2009 10:20 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Hi all, what about this!!
Oil firms to scramble for Iraq deals on live TV
Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:36pm BST
By Simon WebbDUBAI, June 26 (Reuters) - The secretive world of Middle East oil deals will be thrown open in Baghdad next week when a contract auction is broadcast live, shining a spotlight on big oil deal makers that prefer to stay behind the scenes.
"This is shaping up to be unlike anything I have ever been involved in," said one senior executive for a major western oil company. "It is quite unique and will be some theatre. I don't think any of us really know how this is going to work out."
Bids for contracts for six of Iraq's largest oilfields and two untapped gas fields will be opened in front of the cameras and the world's media on June 29-30 in Baghdad. The bids will be compared and contracts awarded there and then.
After the first contract is awarded, competing firms would have a chance to go back and revise the terms of their next bid.
That is where the process could come to resemble a live TV game show.
"Firms are going to have to break alliances and broker new ones there and then, bid by bid, depending on what they win or lose," said another oil executive working on the bidding process.
"They will also have to change bids under time pressure. That could become a bit unseemly if it happens in front of the cameras."
The terms of the tender limit the 32 competing firms to just one contract as lead partner or field operator. They can participate in three contracts as members of consortia.
Some of the biggest firms would be planning bids as operators for several fields, in case they fail to win the field of their choice, executives said.
If they win early on, they would have to pull out of any other alliances they were heading as lead partners.
Those that fail to win the first fields auctioned would likely submit increasingly competitive terms as the two-day process continues.
The auction represents the first chance for decades for international energy companies to bid for contracts in Iraq.
Returning empty handed from what analysts say is the largest ever single auction in terms of oil reserves on offer would be difficult to stomach for the likes of Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L), BP (BP.L), Chevron (CVX.N), Total (TOTF.PA) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N).
"It looks like it will be a very transparent bidding process," said one executive. "It is going to be fascinating."
-- June 26, 2009 12:41 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
And of course the Kurds don't like this....
Kurdistan prime minister rejects Iraq oil auctions
Fri Jun 26, 2009 3:07pm BST
BAGHDAD, June 26 (Reuters) - The prime minister of Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdistan region condemned on Friday plans by the Oil Ministry to auction six fields in a June 29-30 tender for service contracts, saying they violated the constitution.A row between Kurds and the central government in Baghdad over control of Iraq's oil reserves, the world's third biggest, often sees them refusing to recognise each other's dealings with foreign firms.
The dispute is part of a wider struggle over power and land that analysts say is the greatest long-term threat to Iraq's stability as the United States plans to withdraw combat forces from Iraq by the end of August 2010.
Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani plans to announce the results of a first bidding round to international companies seeking a stake in the country's reserves over the last two days of this month. Two gas fields are also on offer.
"This auction is a violation of Iraq's federal constitution ... the proposed Oil Ministry contracts are not in the best interest of the Iraqi people," Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani wrote on the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) website.
Two of the oil fields, Kirkuk and Bai Hassan, are in territory that is disputed between Baghdad and Kurdistan. The Kurds say the Oil Ministry has no right to tender these fields until that dispute is resolved.
"Any decision related to contracting for Kirkuk and Bai Hassan fields requires the direct involvement of the KRG as a party to the dispute," Barzani said. "Regrettably, the KRG has not been involved."
He added that any oil companies who invest in the disputed territories would been considered to have broken Kurdistan's own oil and gas law.
Baghdad has similarly rejected deals that the Kurds struck with international oil companies and threatened to exclude them from its bidding rounds, although last month they reached an agreement allowing oil to be pumped from fields there through Iraq's northern pipeline.
Foreign firms dealing in Iraq may be realising that they must choose between investing in Kurdistan or investing in the rest of Iraq, because they are unlikely to be able to do deals with one authority without upsetting the other.
China's state oil group Sinopec is thought to be preparing a bid for London-listed Addax Petroleum Corp. (AXC.L), with a field in Kurdistan. Such a move could end up excluding Chinese companies from winning fields in the bidding round. Baghdad does not recognise the legitimacy of the Addax concession.
-- June 26, 2009 12:45 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
UPDATE 2-Japan firms set to win $10bln Iraq oil deal -paper
A group of Japanese companies led by refiner Nippon Oil Corp is in the final stage of talks to win a $10 billion development contract for Iraq's huge Nassiriya oilfield, a Japanese newspaper reported on Friday, the biggest foreign oil deal since the fall of Saddam.Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 26, 2009 2:06 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
French FM to meet de Mistura to discuss Iraq on Monday
Politics 6/26/2009 4:45:00 PM
PARIS, June 26 (KUNA) -- French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is to hold talks here on Monday with outgoing UN Special Representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura.
De Mistura was appointed by the UN Secretary General to help oversee a number of political, economic and other development projects in Iraq and see where the UN body could be useful in the reconstruction of Iraq and its rehabilitation after the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein.
Last week, de Mistura gave testimony at the UN Security Council on the current situation in Iraq and the role of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq and he gave a rather positive overview of progress there, despite signs of a sharp rise in violence in Iraq ahead of the withdrawal to barracks of US security forces in the coming months.
France has recently, and significantly, upgraded relations with Iraq by bolstering its diplomatic presence on the ground in that country and by signing a number of accords to help boost economic and business cooperation.
France also signed its first military contract since the late 1980s with Iraq, agreeing to supply 24 helicopters for transport and patrol activities. (end) jk.hb KUNA 261645 Jun 09NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 26, 2009 2:13 PM ∞
Sandra wrote:
I heard yesterday that a meeting was held in the USA with IRAQ officials, regarding the RV of the dinars, and that the IRAQ officials wanted the RV to be restated back to what it was originally $3.20 before the Gulf war. BUT the IMF stated that their economical situtation would not support this value and that they should use a progressive approach to the RV of the dinars, starting with 95 cents. When IRAQ accomplished certain goals, then the IMF would step up the value in the dinars at that time. The reason of this meeting was to set the RV and they did, and June 30th is suppose to be the "Soverignty Day" a national holiday for IRAQ and it would be annouce at that time. Also that the article 7 has been lifted, and funds that were frozen are being return to IRAQ to utilize for reconstruction/infrastructure etc. Source is suppose to be Medic, and I heard this from my brother which is in Medic's group. So I want to know if anyone else has heard this or something of this sort?
-- June 29, 2009 11:32 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Sandra,
No, I have not heard this. I am afraid you are a victim of another unsubstantiated rumor. I am convinced we will see June 30th come and go with no change in the Dinars exchange rate.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- June 29, 2009 2:23 PM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Oh Sandra, if only it were true. Well I guess we'll find out tomorrow! Should I rush out and buy some more?
BritishKnite.
-- June 29, 2009 3:37 PM ∞
Rob J. wrote:
Check ut the following interesting article in the Stars and Stripes.
U.S., Iraqi experts developing plan to preserve Babylon, build local tourism industryStory and photos by Seth Robson, Stars and Stripes
Mideast edition, Sunday, June 28, 2009
HILLAH, Iraq — The remains of what was once the greatest city in the world occupy a vast site on the bank of the Euphrates River.Their roots go back 3,800 years to when the city of Babylon was the heart of a Mesopotamian empire, and the remnants include great slabs of stone that are said to be the remains of King Nebuchadnezzar’s castle. A giant stone lion guards one end of the fortifications, but the most stunning remnants were removed by European archaeologists in the early 20th century.
Now soldiers with the 172nd Infantry Brigade are exploring the ruins as part of a U.S.-Iraqi effort to preserve the ancient city and plan for the return of Western tourists.
Members of the brigade’s 2nd Battalion, 28th Infantry Regiment escorted a group of U.S. heritage tourism experts to the ruins last week for the first of several visits to develop a preservation and tourism plan for the area.
U.S. and coalition troops have been criticized in the past for damaging and contaminating artifacts. In a 2006 report, the head of the British Museum’s Near East department said that, among other things, military vehicles crushed a 2,600-year-old brick pavement, and sand and archeological fragments were used to fill military sandbags.
Now the rapidly improving security situation in surrounding Babil province has persuaded the U.S. State Department and the Iraqi State Board of Antiquities and Heritage to embark on the preservation project, dubbed the Future of Babylon Project.
The State Department and the World Monuments Fund have committed $700,000 to the project, which will see U.S. and Iraqi experts develop a plan to preserve the site and develop a local tourism industry, said Diane Siebrandt, the U.S. embassy’s cultural heritage officer.
The Babylon project is one of several that the State Department is involved in to conserve ancient sites in partnership with the Iraqi government, she said.
Two people with expertise developing tourism plans for historic sites in third-world nations, Gina Haney and Jeff Allen, have been employed by the State Department to run the U.S. side of the project. They visited the ruins for the first time last weekend.
Haney said the pair will involve the local community in the plan’s development, as they did with a similar project encouraging Western tourists to visit Ghana’s Gold Coast.
“You could throw money at it and do all this work, but unless you can create a sustainable situation, your opportunities for tourism will run out,” Allen said. “The idea is to develop something that is going to be here 30 to 40 years from now and has benefits for the local people. We don’t want something that will only benefit outsiders.”
The Iraqi government will be involved in the planning as well.
“If you have 200,000 people a year coming to this site, you will have people staying at hotels, visiting restaurants, buying souvenirs,” Allen said. “The site is in some ways a revenue generator for the local community.”
Babylon could be comparable to the Egyptian pyramids, which draw millions of tourists each year. But the area lacks the tourist infrastructure that has been built at sites such as the pyramids, he said.
“There is nothing for tourists here, but if you interpret and present it in the right way, you can spark interest,” he said.
Allen, who has experience designing walkways and signs for other heritage sites, said detailed planning won’t happen until authorities have worked out how best to preserve the ruins. The crumbling rocks of the original city are surrounded by more elaborate and modern fortifications, including a maze-like collection of interior walls built on top of genuine ruins during Saddam Hussein’s time.
“Some of the past restoration work hasn’t been very good,” he said. “Saddam was trying to inherit the power of the ancients and continue that legacy. His restoration methods helped reinforce that vision of himself, and he created a pattern of restoration and repair work that benefited a certain agenda.”
One of the 172nd soldiers who visited the ruins, 1st Lt. Bryan Kelso, 24, of Jacksonville, Fla., walked in wonder near the ancient stones.
“It’s amazing to be surrounded by this history. To think that we are standing where Alexander the Great has been,” he said, referring to the great Macedonian conqueror who died in Babylon. “Babylon is one of the oldest and first civilizations known to man. They created the wheel and the first calendars. Everybody coming here gets a sense of what this place really is and how it all traces back.”
-- June 29, 2009 10:05 PM ∞
Sandra wrote:
I saw on FOX news yesterday morning, that they announced that IRAQ is now out from under Article 7 and the frozen assets have been returned to IRAQ. Did you all see that broadcast? I will see if I can find anything published on it and post it.
-- June 30, 2009 1:23 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraq brings forward second oil sale, goes alone on gas
Thu Jul 2, 2009 3:18pm BST
By Missy RyanBAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq plans to bring forward a second bidding round for major energy contracts and may give foreign firms another run at oilfields that were left over after this week's sale, which clinched only one deal.
The country's second bidding round of energy deals "was supposed to be at the end of the year but we have moved it up. We will announce the new date. It could be in the next few months," oil ministry spokesman Asim Jihad said on Thursday.
That auction will follow on from Tuesday's tender for eight major oil and gas fields, Iraq's first energy sale since the 2003 U.S. invasion and the first open run oil firms have had at the world's third largest reserves since Iraq nationalized the industry in 1972.
The auction awarded just one field, to a foreign group led by BP (BP.L), a disappointment to those who had hoped the round would help Iraq quickly revive a struggling oil sector and boost production of about 2.4 million barrels per day.
The government in Baghdad nevertheless deemed the exercise as a success because the Rumaila field awarded to the BP-led group, which also included the China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), is a very large one.
The auction revealed a deep gulf between what the Iraqi government was willing to pay for developing the fields, most of which are already in production, and the fees foreign firms expected to earn.
Iraq desperately needs money to rebuild after six years of conflict and is widely viewed as unable to fix an oil sector damaged by decades of war, sanctions and neglect without the capital and expertise of international energy firms.
Jihad said the unawarded oilfields might be offered in another bidding process, or could be added to the second round or in some cases might even be developed by a future National Oil Company, if the company is revived when the country passes the necessary legislation.
The second round is seen as even more lucrative than the first because the fields on offer have not yet been developed.
Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, speaking from the Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya, called the BP deal to develop the 17-billion-barrel Rumaila field, Iraq's biggest, "an important step forward and a signal."
"We need to pursue a policy of maximizing production in the shortest time," he told Reuters. "There are certain areas in which we find companies reluctant to come ... We may have to rely on our own resources and policies."
NEW NATIONAL OIL COMPANY?
Jihad said that the government planned to develop two major gas fields, Akkas and Mansuriyah, on its own after neither was awarded to a foreign bidder in Tuesday's auction.
"Akkas and Mansuriyah will be developed by the National Oil Company after approval of the new oil law," Jihad said.
A group led by Italy's Edison (EDN.MI) was the sole bidder for Akkas, a 2.1-trillion cubic feet field in Iraq's vast western desert, but its proposed fee of $38 for each additional barrel of oil equivalent produced was far above the $8.50 a barrel Iraq suggested.
No agreement on Akkas or other unawarded fields was reached when the Iraqi cabinet reviewed the companies' bids, some of them revised, the day after the tender. All were rejected.
The creation of a new National Oil Co will depend on parliament passing long-delayed hydrocarbon legislation. The laws have been held up for years by feuding between the central government in Baghdad and minority Kurds in northern Iraq.
There are few signs the impasse will be broken soon.
-- July 2, 2009 1:38 PM ∞
March 9, 2009
Trust
By Kevin
Some top notch economists insist we have a crisis of trust. True enough. Yet it seems to me that the market is trying to fire quite a number of the poor-judging risk-takers in the financial sector -- basically, those that we cannot trust. However, Mr. Obama and Mr. Geithner appear to be doing a damn fine job keeping them there, I think partly because of successful lobbying, but also because they cannot envision the market and political orders that would ensue should AIG, Citi, BoA, and a host of other international conglomerates suddenly disappear.
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March 5, 2009
Interpretation
By Kevin
BBC's Will Grant is absolutely clueless.
Last week President Chavez ordered troops to rice processing plants after accusing producers of sidestepping the law on controlled prices by producing a higher grade of rice....
Mr Chavez is attempting to reduce the cost of the basic shopping basket of ordinary Venezuelans at a time of soaring inflation, says the BBC's Will Grant in Caracas.
I don't think inflation fighting is an even remotely acceptable explanation. Here, we have Mr. Chavez's military assets seizing other people's productive assets, because they followed the law to the letter. Who will now retain any profits from the use of these assets? Mr. Chavez's government. So who gets immediate benefits from this seizure? Plainly, Mr. Chavez! Will more rice be produced, and at lower cost? The reporter doesn't seem to realize that it doesn't matter. He won't be reporting the actual results of the seizure either way...
But business leaders and food producers are furious at what they see as a further attack on their ability to turn a profit, our correspondent says
Now I get it. We must judge Mr. Chavez not on the morality of means taken, but stated ends. And we simply shouldn't believe what producers say at all.
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-- April 14, 2009 10:43 PM ∞
March 2, 2009
Access to Healthcare
By Kevin
It turns out that "access to healthcare" is actually an incredibly complex sociological concept:
Facilitating access is concerned with helping people to command appropriate health care resources in order to preserve or improve their health. Access is a complex concept and at least four aspects require evaluation. If services are available and there is an adequate supply of services, then the opportunity to obtain health care exists, and a population may 'have access' to services. The extent to which a population 'gains access' also depends on financial, organisational and social or cultural barriers that limit the utilisation of services. Thus access measured in terms of utilisation is dependent on the affordability, physical accessibility and acceptability of services and not merely adequacy of supply. Services available must be relevant and effective if the population is to 'gain access to satisfactory health outcomes'. The availability of services, and barriers to access, have to be considered in the context of the differing perspectives, health needs and material and cultural settings of diverse groups in society. Equity of access may be measured in terms of the availability, utilisation or outcomes of services. Both horizontal and vertical dimensions of equity require consideration.
And here I thought "access to healthcare" meant you could get whatever medical services you want, and somebody else would pay for them.
Jarod wrote:
The healthcare debate in America is idiotic.
Seventh Day Adventists live on average 7 years longer than the average, in the population. That means healthier people, and lower health-care costs. Diet is one key.
Among European nations, life expectancy differs up to 15 years, with Russia at the bottom end, Switzerland, at the top end. So, that should tell us that biologically, how long humans live can vary, up to 20%, depending on input variables.
Another key is physical mobility levels, whic can be measured. In numerous, well documented studies, highly active people live 15 years longer than the inactive. That means lower healthcare costs. So everything must be done, to help people become more active.
Finland did this by slowly re-designing Helsinki, over 20 years, to encourage mobility. It has worked, and most health problems associated with advanced technological societies, are on the decline, in Finland. Things like, lower rates of heart attacks. That means lower health care costs.
American city design, and transportation systems seem specifically designed to produce an obese population.
One way to control health care costs, is to shut down fast food outlets, and tax them into oblivion. Declare a War on Fast Food. Tax on food and restaurants should be based on nutritional ratings. The healthier the food, the lower the tax. Re-jig the farm subsidy system, to encourage organic, locally grown produce, would help. Mandate every school to have free, healthy, nutritious breakfasts, and lunches, and make sure every child takes gardening and cooking classes, so they know what real food is, and won't tolerate the pig-slop they currently are fed.
Farm animals often eat better than the average Big-Mac eating American. The healthcare crisis is really a bad food crises, and a couch potato crises.
Implement very strong tax incentives for all kinds of things to encourage physical mobility. Tax incentives for anyone living in walkable communities, including residents, builders, property owners. Punish those in outlying areas, and builders of these communites, with high taxes.
That would encourage physical mobility. Americans are the fattest people, in human history. We are a blob on the evolutionary ladder. How about building more bike trails, and tax free sporting equipment of all kinds? Maybe even subsidized equipment. Every form of physical mobility should be given incentives. Your kid wants you to spend $200 on Karate lessons? You should get a $400 tax credit.
Right now, 'health care" in America means pumping morbidly obese, inactive people, full of drugs, that often do more harm than good. This is called "health care" in America. Republicans and Democrats fight over the right way to keep a retarded, bankrupt system going, without any serious debate, about the deeper causes.
Like a bunch of spoiled teenagers, everyone, when talking about healthcare, uses simple minded, ego-based stupidity: It's a "right". And the drug companies encourage this stupidity, that passes for public policy. Why not? Like Wall Street, they are morally bankrupt. They are making tens of billions in profits. What do they care if their "cures" are stupid, and most often just cover up symptoms, without attacking the cause of the problems. Often, they suppress real treatment, because they can't patent it. Then they pad the wallets of Republicans and Democrats, at election time, so that nothing real gets done.
The drug companies are too immoral to acknowledge they are part of a process of keeping a corrupt political and medical system going on, blindly and stupidly.
Americans drive through fast food pickups, by the millions each day, eating garbage I wouldn't feed a pig, sit in cars all day, have inactive jobs, go through drive through pharmacies, and wonder why they aren't we feeling so good? Well, duh.
Look in the mirror, Porky.
And if you don't have a mirror, turn on Jerry Springer, and look at the audience.
America: this is you!
America is the most unnatural country, in history.
How did humans evolve? We move around all day. We are hunters. We didn't evolve, sitting on a rock, er chair, over the course of our human evolution. And we didn't evolve eating diets of 3000 calories, like many Americans eat. There's your solution to healthcare: Live as we evolved to live, not as we are, blobs waiting to go extinct.
-- April 4, 2009 8:46 PM ∞
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March 1, 2009
Dinar and Discussion March & April 2009
By DinarAdmin
Dinar and Discussion for March & April 2009
mattuk wrote:
Iraq's ailing farm sector more crucial than ever
Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:41am GMT
By Missy RyanAMARA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq, once a bread basket for the Middle East, should look to farming as a lifeline as a sharp plunge in oil revenue threatens efforts to rebuild from years of war, Iraqi officials say.
But while the agricultural sector is Iraq's second biggest industry after oil, it accounts for just 8 percent of overall economic output after decades of neglect, international sanctions, underinvestment and decay.
Iraq's farm sector was once the envy of many of its arid neighbors in the 1950s. Today it imports the bulk of its food.
Farmers lack suitable irrigation, proper seeds and modern equipment. Farm labor has been drained by flight to cities, high soil salinity stifles productivity, and sectarian bloodshed since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion has hindered improvements.
The heart of the ancient world's fertile crescent, as it turns out, is not so fertile any more.
To make things worse, Iraq is suffering from a major drought that has crippled production in rain-fed wheat and barley areas. This prompted the United Nations to name Iraq one of 32 countries requiring external aid in food supplies in 2009.
Despite all this, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will need a far more robust farm sector if it is to create broad-based growth and stave off a renewed insurgency, which in the past has drawn heavily from unemployed youth.
The violence of the past six years has finally begun to ease and the U.S. forces which toppled Saddam Hussein are preparing, gradually, to leave.
But the growing stability is fragile and could easily be reversed if the demands of ordinary Iraqis for jobs, better living conditions and prosperity are not met.
Maliki and other officials are making increasingly urgent calls to diversify Iraq's economy, which depends almost entirely on a single commodity -- oil -- to fill state coffers and pay policemen, pave roads and keep the lights on in hospitals.
When oil prices are high, as they were last summer at $147 a barrel, that seemed a blessing. But with oil hovering around $40 a barrel, it has become an emergency.
"We have become dependent on oil and gas because of the massive setbacks in the agricultural and industrial sectors," Maliki said during an oil conference on Friday.
SPENDING CUTS
Iraq has cut 2009 spending plans from $80 billion to $62 billion due to falling oil prices. Even the current plans may be unachievable as they are based on oil prices of $50 a barrel.
Maliki has launched a $200 million initiative to reenergize the farm sector. The government is subsidizing the sale of seeds and providing support for livestock and date palm industries.
Yet the sector may need far more money, over many years, and a host of tools like pivot sprinklers, cold storage, and crop varieties that can flourish in dry conditions.
"Much of the agricultural sector is dysfunctional or outright broken," said Jon Melhus, an agriculture adviser to the U.S. provincial reconstruction team in southeastern Maysan province.
"The lack of education and essential services, especially electricity, modern irrigation and drainage practices, transportation ... greatly limit Iraq's ability to compete."
Abdel Hussein al-Saidi, Maysan's deputy governor, called for greater aid from the central government, echoing the cries of provincial officials in every sector across the country.
"The farm sector is the foundation for developing the entire country. Everything else rests on it," he said.
Maysan, like other parts of southern Iraq, suffers from severe salinity, which turns vast expanses of land into white powdery salt, supporting only shrubby brush.
It has been a problem for thousands of years, but it is exacerbated by south-flowing irrigation that boosts downstream salt levels and flood irrigation that leaves salt on the soil.
Nassir al-Alami, Maysan's top farm official, said salinity had reduced productivity in some areas by three-quarters.
Iraq is now aiming to reclaim 6 million acres (2.5 million hectares) of salinated land.
Yet given the lack of resources, hopes of transforming the farm sector quickly into an engine of growth may be in vain.
"The combination of reduced budgets due to the decline in world oil prices, corruption, and bureaucratic inefficiencies poses enormous challenges," said Dan Foote, who heads U.S. reconstruction efforts in Maysan.
-- March 2, 2009 5:56 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Budget to follow recommendations or country faces bankruptcy 04/03/2009 16:24:00
Baghdad (NINA) – The Iraqi Accord Front's Lawmaker Omer Abdul-Sattar al-Karbouli has said that the political factions have presented proposals over the country's draft budget, calling to adopt the recommendations of the parliament's committee.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 4, 2009 10:08 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraq parliament cuts 09 budget by 7 percent
Thu Mar 5, 2009 4:43pm GMT
By Ahmed RasheedBAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's parliament defied government objections and voted on Thursday to cut the oil-dependent country's 2009 budget by $4.2 billion, or nearly 7 percent, due to slumping oil prices, a lawmaker said.
The drop in global oil prices from a high of $147 per barrel last summer to close to $40 now has slashed Iraq's income from oil exports, its main source of revenues, just when it desperately needs money to rebuild after years of war.
The action by parliament would reduce the proposed gap between income and spending this year to 27 percent of total spending from 32 percent previously, said lawmaker Sami al-Atrushi, a member of parliament's finance committee.
"I think this budget is acting firmly in dealing with falling oil prices," said Atrushi, a Kurdish parliamentarian.
"Now the government will be committed to acting in accordance with this vote and the finance ministry will have to find ways to accommodate the new budget." He said the new budget set spending at $58.6 billion at current exchange rates.
Dependent on oil exports for more than 95 percent of its revenues, the Iraqi government is being starved of funds just as the violence unleashed by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion begins to die down and hopes grow for investment and economic growth.
If the government fails to restore services, equip its armed forces and improve the lives of Iraq's 28 million people, there could be a resurgence in bloodshed, some analysts warn.
Finance Minister Bayan Jabor on Wednesday tried to persuade legislators to pass the budget as it was. They could review spending in June if oil prices remained depressed, he said.
But lawmakers say the government is squandering money and budget cuts can be made without affecting investment spending.
Some may be interested in trying to shackle Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ahead of national elections late in the year, after the success that allies of the once obscure but increasingly assertive leader scored in recent local polls.
"These blocs were unhappy with the results achieved by Maliki's list during the last provincial elections," said a lawmaker from Maliki's Dawa Party, asking not to be identified.
"They want to handicap the government," he said. Reducing its funds would be one way to do that.
The 2009 budget has already been cut twice, from an initial $80 billion. But the last version was still dependent on an average oil price of $50 per barrel, above current market rates.
Sinan al-Shibibi, governor of Iraq's central bank, said in an interview a day before the vote that the slump in oil revenue would force the government to make more sober budget decisions.
"There will be a difficult transitional period, but it should give us an idea of how to take a more realistic attitude toward allocations and demands from the various sectors."
"Of course, this occurs at the wrong moment because of the fact that Iraq actually needs to embark on huge projects and it will affect that," he said.
Maliki has called on Iraq to reduce its dependency on oil, but the government has few options for an immediate short-term increase in revenues, as there is little taxation.
Iraq has the world's third biggest reserves of crude and is seeking foreign investors for its antiquated oil infrastructure.
-- March 6, 2009 7:53 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
7.5 pct GDP growth in 2009 optimistic but attainable
3/5/2009
* Oil price slump starves Iraq of funds
* Inflation slips to 9.2 percent
* 7.5 pct GDP growth in 2009 optimistic but attainable
* Iraq undecided on new IMF standby arrangementBy Missy Ryan and Wisam Mohammed
BAGHDAD, March 5 (Reuters) - The slump in oil prices will force Iraqi officials to make more sober budget decisions at a time the country is seeking to rebuild from years of war and fuel broad-based growth, the central bank governor said.
Iraq relies on oil for more than 95 percent of revenue and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government is already grappling with tough decisions as it looks for ways to reconcile today's oil price outlook with spending priorities crafted last year.
"There will be a difficult transitional period, but it should give us an idea of how to take a more realistic attitude toward allocations and demands from the various sectors," Sinan al-Shibibi said in an interview late on Wednesday.
"Of course, this occurs at the wrong moment because of the fact that Iraq actually needs to embark on huge projects and it will affect that. There will have to be reshuffling of the budget, and between investment and consumption."
An original plan to spend $80 billion in 2009 has already been shaved to $62 billion, but further cuts are likely needed.
Lawmakers have been sparring for weeks on ways to cut costs without jeopardizing plans to undertake urgently needed reconstruction projects and provide basic services -- all while avoiding stoking instability by cutting public sector pay.
INFLATION DROPS
As Iraq emerges from the worst of the sectarian and insurgent violence unleashed by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein, it is now focusing on creating jobs and plans to rebuild a shattered economy. Shibibi said core inflation, which shot as high as 35 percent in the chaos after 2003, had dropped to 9.2 percent now.The bank has pursued a strong dinar policy, Shibibi said, in order to curb core inflation, which excludes fuel and transport. Iraq holds currency auctions through which it sets the exchange rate.
Iraq is also striving to reverse the dollarization of its economy since 2003. Today, the dinar is "very much in demand, and we think this is good for the economy and good for combating inflation," he said. As inflation subsides, the bank has cut its policy interest rate to 11 percent from 14 percent in January, Shibibi said.
But with retail lending still scarce, the bank's policy rate is seen mainly as a signal to banks in setting their own rates rather than the transactional tool it is elsewhere.
"We want now to encourage investment and lending in general but (the policy rate) will depend - I don't want to give an idea of the direction - on the results of inflation every month."Shibibi said lending in Iraq's banking sector, still largely isolated from the rest of the world, was picking up, mostly in financing trade and some personal loans excluding mortgages.
Increasing the availability of credit will be one key element for creating growth outside the oil sector, by far the biggest in dollar terms but which generates relatively few jobs.
Shibibi said the International Monetary Fund's December forecast for 2009 gross domestic product growth of around 7.5 percent was "probably optimistic" due to the global oil trend. "On the other hand, it will be attainable because there will be a big endeavour ... to increase (oil) production," he said.Iraq has been courting major investment in its oil fields, which contain the world's third largest proven reserves, but short-term help is urgently needed to update aging facilities and boost output that remains below pre-invasion levels.
NO IMF DECISION YET
Shibibi said growth outside the oil sector, which the IMF expects will be 6 percent in 2009, "needs a lot of work". Iraq has been spared much of the impact of the financial crisis due to its relative financial isolation, but it may be hurt by a slowdown in oil demand. Shibibi said that the growth of money supply in Iraq had probably slowed more recently.Iraq has yet to decide whether it will seek another stand-by arrangement from the IMF, Shibibi said, but said such a decision could come when Iraqi officials meet shortly with the IMF.
Iraq is also due to begin repaying its remaining stock of Paris Club debt in 2011. Shibibi said he didn't expect that new obligation would pose a major problem. "I really don't think it is very dangerous ... Of course the amount at the beginning will be relatively big, but we will have to manage that unless we restructure again," Shibibi said.
"The Paris Club debt was cancelled 80 percent, so we're talking about 20 percent. A few countries cancelled 100 percent, but the remaining debt from other creditors, we have to deal with that and probably there will be another restructuring." (Editing by Toby Chopra)
7.5 pct GDP growth in 2009 optimistic but attainable - Source
(www.safedinar.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 9, 2009 1:57 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Egypt to press Iraq for $2 billion debt
A top Egyptian diplomat says Egypt will press Iraq to repay some $2 billion in debt incurred during the reign of deposed leader Saddam Hussein.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 9, 2009 1:58 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Major parties reluctant to endorse oil law, says Jabir 09/03/2009 12:30:00
Baghdad (NINA)- MP Jabir Khaleefa Jabir, rapporteur of the parliament's committee on oil and gas, has described some parliamentary blocs' attitude over endorsing the oil law in the next legislative term as "featured by lack of enthusiasm."
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 9, 2009 2:07 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
FPIF Policy Report
Iraq Policy Outlook: 2009Erik Leaver | March 12, 2009
Foreign Policy In Focus
www.fpif.orgIn Iraq, 2008 carried over much of the beginnings of security improvements that began in late 2007. The decrease in violence, at least relative to the devastation of 2006-2007 is widely seen as enabling President Barack Obama to have the political space needed to call for the drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq.
However, even these modest improvements in security have come with a high, but unseen price: Baghdad is encircled by and filled with over 100 miles of concrete walls that have divided the once-cosmopolitan city into ethnically “pure” enclaves, the allegiance of the Sons of Iraq to the U.S.-backed government is tenuous at best (and dependent on the government continuing to pay them), Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki is slowing building his own military force, and the Iraqi military is still highly dependent on U.S. military force for operational and logistical support.
Politically, many analysts argue that the results from the provincial elections indicate a path towards greater political stability in the country. However, several key issues remain unsolved: the continuation of competing sectarian divisions within the various components of government, the status of Kirkuk, disagreements over federalism among various ethnic and sectarian groups, and the development of Iraq’s oil law. The United States has been unable to break the deadlock on all of these issues, despite repeated attempts, and it is unlikely that U.S. influence will result in resolution of any of them in the future. Parliamentary elections slated for late this year could easily ignite tensions just as easily as they could move Iraq forward.
At bottom, Iraq remains a country occupied and at war. While violence has decreased and the government is stronger, fighting continues and the United States remains far too powerful in the country for it to be called independent and sovereign. Although Afghanistan is quickly gaining greater attention by the public, policy experts and grassroots movements, Iraq cannot and must not fall off of the agenda of the peace community. The lessons learned from Iraq should be taken to heart in Afghanistan, and pressure must be maintained to ensure that the partial withdrawals announced by Obama move quickly to complete withdrawal of all U.S. troops.
Legislative Openings
1) Congressional Approval of SOFA: Many analysts argue that the Status of Forces Agreement signed between the United States and Iraq falls outside the bounds of a normal SOFA agreement, raising it to the level of a treaty. Now that Obama’s plan for Iraq is public, and similar to the terms outlined in the SOFA, the Senate should move forward to ratify the SOFA as a treaty, especially as several key leaders in Congress have voiced concern about the size and structure of the forces Obama has proposed. Future funding of war supplementals should be made dependent on having such a treaty in place.2) Demobilization of the Sons of Iraq: Long-term stability of Iraq depends on the integration and demobilization of the Sons of Iraq (SOI), the locally recruited and primarily Sunni security forces that are armed and supported by the United States at $300 per person each month. Legislation should be put in place for both requiring a plan and funding for integration and demobilization of these forces.
3) Address Refugees: There are approximately 1.5 million Iraqi refugees living in Syria, Jordan, and other neighbors of Iraq, as well as 2.7 million internally displaced persons within Iraq, making it one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world. Legislation should include funding for humanitarian assistance and resettlement inside and outside Iraq, when necessary.
4) Reform the Oil Law: The proposed Iraq hydrocarbon law would take the majority of Iraq’s oil out of the hands of the Iraqi government and open it to international oil
Key Dates & EventsMarch: Obama Administration submits war funding supplemental ($75-82b)
March 19: 6th Anniversary of the War
March: Pentagon Quarterly Report June: Pentagon Quarterly ReportJuly 31: Iraq votes on SOFA Referendum
Aug 21-Sept 19: Ramadan
September: Pentagon Quarterly Report
Fall: Death toll reaches 4,500 U.S. soldiers Late Fall/Winter: Iraq Parliamentary Elections
December: Pentagon Quarterly Report
Other Events, Dates Unknown:FY2010: Defense/State Authorizations
FY2010: Defense/State Appropriations (includes $130b for war funding)Erik Leaver is the Policy Outreach Director for Foreign Policy In Focus and is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies
-- March 12, 2009 9:49 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
INIC to hold symposium Sun.
March 12, 2009 - 02:52:25BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The Iraq National Investment Commission (INIC) will hold a symposium in Baghdad next Sunday to discuss ways to develop provincial investment commissions, according to a release issued by the National Information Center Wednesday.
“All journalists and correspondents are invited to attend the symposium,” said the release that was received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
The event, to start at 10:00 a.m. on Sunday (March 15) at al-Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad, will be attended by undersecretaries in addition to representatives of chambers of industry and commerce.
(www.en.aswataliraq.info)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 13, 2009 10:10 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
I suspect based upon the following article the Dinar will experience a revaluation of 1000/1. This is just my opinion of course.
__________________________________________________________Iraq plans to boost currency, revive rebuilding plan through the crisis
Source: BI-ME , Author: BI-ME staff
Posted: 09-03-2009 Back Email Print RSS Feeds
IRAQ. A slump in oil prices, the result of slowing crude demand caused by the global financial crisis, has left Iraq short of money to rebuild its infrastructure after years of war, economic sanctions and violence, Iraq’s central bank governor said.“It has a large influence on us as a result of slumping [oil] prices caused mainly by the current financial crisis,” Sinan al-Shabibi told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview in Amman, Jordan late on Saturday night.
Iraq, which derives more than 95% of its revenues from oil, earned only US$1.8 billion last month from oil sales compared with almost US$7 billion last July when oil prices peaked at a record US$147 a barrel.
The country, in dire need of cash to rebuild its infrastructure after the debilitating impact of war, economic sanctions and sectarian violence, has to cut its 2009 budget to US$58.9 billion, from US$80 billion.
But al-Shabibi said that his country hasn’t been hurt by the other symptom of the financial crisis - deteriorating bank credit - due to its relative financial isolation and undeveloped banking system.
The governor said the central bank has plans to improve Iraqi state-run and private banks, which have yet to meet international standards of operation.
“There is a large programme to improve our banks especially the private banks,” said al-Shabibi.
Recently the central bank, for the first time in years, authorised the country’s private banks to handle international payments and foreign currency letters of credit worth up to US$4 million each from only US$1 million in 2008.
Most of the letters of credit used to be handled by the state-run Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI), he said. Private banks need to exert more efforts to widen their trade and financial businesses, he added.
Iraqi private banks, which number about 30, still lack an effective cross-border payment capability and most of these institutions are relatively small and can only support limited amounts of commercial trade businesses.
Al-Shabibi said the central bank has managed to reduce core inflation to 9.2% currently, from a record high of 34% in 2006.
“We are planning to reduce that inflation percentage further to a certain level that would improve the purchasing power of the Iraqi currency,” he added.
Al-Shabibi admitted that the central bank had pursued a very strong monetary policy over the last few years in order to curb core inflation which reached 70% during former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein’s regime.
“Our monetary policy used to be very strict but now we have eased it as inflation has dropped,” he said.
Al-Shabibi said the central bank has adopted a policy to boost Iraq’s currency, the Dinar. The Dinar has risen over the last few months to a record high against the US Dollar, thanks to trading by the central bank at its daily auction.
The Iraqi Dinar was trading Sunday at 1,170, after trading at around US$1,500 per dollar for almost three years after the US invasion. Before the war, the Sinar was trading at around 2,000 to 2,500 per dollar. The central bank sells an average of US$50 million to US$60 million every working day in Baghdad to private and state-run banks.
(www.bi-me.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 13, 2009 10:13 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Australia and Iraq sign trade agreement
An Iraqi and Australian Memorandum of Understanding will be established to improve relations, specifically in agricultural trade.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 13, 2009 10:14 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Australia and Iraq sign trade agreement
An Iraqi and Australian Memorandum of Understanding will be established to improve relations, specifically in agricultural trade.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 13, 2009 10:14 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All, From Israeli paper Dekafile.com-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Moscow signals harder position on nuclear-armed Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive AnalysisMarch 13, 2009, 1:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
Russian rocket expert Vladimir Dvorkin heeded also in the West
A Russian strategic arms control expert, Vladimir Dvorkin, said Thursday, March 12, that Iran could produce an atomic weapon in "one or two years," allowing Tehran to broaden its support for Hamas and Hizballah. Dvorkin, as head of the strategic arms research center at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and a former general of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces, is a highly respected authority in the West.This was the first time a Russian figure had predicted Iran would be nuclear-capable within so short a period, DEBKAfile's Moscow sources stress. Its correlative linkage to a heightened threat from Hamas and Hizballah has never been heard from Moscow, or even explicitly from Washington or Jerusalem.
Dvorkin put it this way: "The threat is that Iran, which has effectively ignored all the resolutions and sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council, as a nuclear state would become untouchable, allowing it to broaden its support for terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hizballah."
Without mentioning Israel, this Russian warning implicitly put the Jewish state on notice, as the only country threatened by Hizballah and Hamas, that time was running out.
Dvorkin's prediction of "one or two years" was also Moscow's rejoinder to intelligence chief Dennis Blair's forecast Tuesday that Iran would have a nuclear bomb capability within "one to five years."
It was the second pointer to a tougher Russian stance on Iran's nuclear weapon aspiratoins. On March 10, the Russian news agency Interfax quoted an unnamed Moscow source as stating that "Russia may shelve delivery of its advanced S-300 air defense missile system to Iran."
Tehran wants this system to protect its nuclear sites against air or missile attack.
The Moscow source added: "Such a possibility is not excluded. The question must be decided at a political level…"
The final decision on the transaction has therefore been passed to president Dmitry Medvedev and prime minister Vladimir Putin, say our Moscow sources.
The Dvorkin statement and Interfax disclosure lay down a hard new Kremlin line on the impasse over Iran's quest for a nuclear bomb just ahead of the Russian president's first summit with US president Barack Obama in London on April 1.
They also suggest that Russia would show some flexibility in the interests of cooperation with Washington.
Moscow has not lost sight of a possible quid pro quo with Obama over the deployment of a US missile shield close to its borders versus Russian involvement in the Iran nuclear issue - although both sides deny this was proposed.
Laura Parker
-- March 14, 2009 12:30 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Remember that shoe throwing incident at President Bush by an Iraqi reporter. Italian news reports this story.
------------------------------
Iraq: Judges defend sentence for shoe thrower
Baghdad, 12 March (AKI) - The Iraqi journalist Montazer al-Zaidi, who was jailed for three years on Thursday for throwing his shoes at former US president George W. Bush, received a fair trial, the Iraqi magistrates' governing body told Adnkronos International (AKI)."The sentence was passed by professional and independent Iraqi judges who were not subject in any way to political or government pressure," the Supreme Council of the Iraqi Magistrature's official spokesman Abd al-Sattar al-Birqadar said.
"The sentence is not final unless it is ratified by the Court of Cassation, which has a month to uphold or amend the verdict," he said, referring to the three-year sentence handed to al-Zaidi.
Iraq's Criminal High Court invoked article 223 of the Iraqi constitution in sentencing al-Zaidi. It sets a punishment of between three and 15 years in prison for assaulting a foreign leader on an official visit, al-Birqadar said.
Al-Zaidi hurled his shoes at Bush during a farewell media conference in Baghdad last December, calling Bush a "dog" and saying it was a "farewell kiss" from those who had been killed, orphaned and widowed in Iraq.
His actions were condemned by the Iraqi government as "shameful" although Bush - who managed to duck both shoes - shrugged off the incident.
But al-Zaidi's gesture made international headlines and turned him into a hero in the Arab world with shoe-throwing becoming worldwide symbol of dissent and protest.
In the most high-profile 'copycat' attack, a German protester threw a shoe at Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, during a speech at Cambridge University.
Laura Parker
-- March 14, 2009 12:50 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Political news between Iran and Pakistan as it relates to terrorism. This report comes from Italian news service.
--------------------------------
Iran: Energy, terrorism and trade top agenda during Zardari visit
Tehran, 10 March (AKI) - Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zardari travelled to the Iranian capital, Tehran, on a two-day visit on Tuesday. A stalled multi-billion dollar Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project is expected to be at the centre of Zardari's talks with Iran's leaders, according to observers.Zardari (photo) believes the gas pipeline project is of strategic importance and needs be concluded urgently, Pakistan's official news agency, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported.
The 7.5 billion-dollar gas pipeline will run 2,600 kilometres and will transport gas from Iran to India through Pakistan. It is seen as crucial to India's energy needs.
The agreement has been delayed due to disagreements over transit fees and security concerns.
Other issues are the supply of power from Iran to Baluchistan and greater access to the Iranian market for its goods as the current balance of bilateral trade is tilted heavily in Iran's favour.
Iranian officials are also expected to raise the issue of sectarian killings of Shia Muslims in Pakistan. In the most recent incident, suspected Taliban-linked militants shot dead at least five Shia Muslims in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's restive southwestern Baluchistan province last Tuesday.
At least 15 people were killed and 20 others were injured in a bomb attack on a Shia mosque in Quetta in February, and in January at least five Shia Muslims died in a bombing in Dera Ismail Khan, in Pakistan' restive Northwest Frontier Province.
Issues of border security cooperation along the 980 kilometres-long Pakistan-Iran border will also come under discussion during the talks.
Zardari is also due to attend the annual Economic Cooperation Organisation summit while he is in Iran.
He is likely to hold meetings with ECO country leaders on trade, and counter-terrorism. The 10-member ECO consists of Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.
Laura Parker
-- March 14, 2009 12:55 AM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
All,
Some business news from Italian news source on illegal money laundrying for Iran.
--------------
US: Italian bank may face charges over illegal Iranian payments
New York, 2 March (AKI) - New York prosecutors will present formal charges against one of Italy's largest banks, Intesa Sanpaolo, which is allegedly among at least 10 major Western banks to have illegally handled funds for Iran and concealed Iranian transactions routed through the United States. The cash may have been used to buy illegal arms, investigators allege.US investigators and their Italian counterparts from the northern city of Milan allege that Intesa Sanpaolo's branch in New York handled international credit transfers made via banks with headquarters in Iran, and also Syria and Libya, where the companies' names have been concealed.
The payments were made by banks and companies slapped with US sanctions, investigators allege. Intesa Sanpaolo says it is fully cooperating with the investigation.
New York district prosecutors allege that these operations violate both US federal and state laws and will press charges against Intesa Sanpaolo in May.
Milan police involved in the inquiry say they have established that embargoed Iranian, Syrian and Libyan banks asked Intesa Sanpaolo to conceal their names on international credit transfers, which were made in US dollars.
The New York branch of Britain's Lloyds TSB in mid-January paid a 350 million dollar fine in order to continue to operate in the US after investigators found it had handled illegal credit transfers from Iran and other 'rogue' states.
Lloyds TSB admitted to having handled 300 million dollars from Iran and 20 million dollars from Sudan that was paid "to American banks".
According to investigators, Tehran purchased via the British bank nuclear centrifuges for its controversial nuclear programme and 30,000 tonnes of tungsten, a chemical element that can be used to build high-tech missiles.
The investigation, which is being carried out jointly with the US justice department, is also probing other major European banks, including Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, in western and eastern Europe and elsewhere.
If investigators prove that Intesa Sanpaolo is among the 10 or more banks that are illegally handling funds for Iran, the bank may be forced to close its New York branch. Other Italian banks are also being targeted by the probe, investigators say.
Another focus of the inquiry is the role of the Rome branch of Iran's Bank Sepah, which has been subjected to a US economic embargo since January 2007 and also subjected to United Nations sanctions and Italian sanctions.
Bank Sepah's executive director, Hassan Ali Qanbari, told semi-official Iranian news agency Fars in December that the bank's Rome branch had "started up again."
The bank has denied financing illicit weapons programmes.
Because of economic sanctions and the small size of Iranian banks, the banks have long relied on big European multinational banks in their international trade and credit transfers. Many of those transfers have flowed through New York City.
Laura Parker
-- March 14, 2009 1:00 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Unassuming bureaucrat face of Iraq's political shift
Sat Mar 14, 2009 1:33pm GMT
By Khalid al-Ansary and Missy RyanKERBALA, Iraq (Reuters) - Yousif al-Habubi, a mild-mannered bureaucrat, drives his own car around the dusty city of Kerbala and unlike most Iraqi officials goes without a pack of bodyguards in flashy suits.
The no-frills style of this veteran local administrator is a sharp contrast to his runaway success in Iraq's recent local polls. But his victory may result in less than he, and many voters, hoped if his goals to capture a top post are cut short.
"How could 38,000 votes go to waste like this? Can this be called democracy?" the independent candidate asked weeks before Kerbala's new provincial council is seated, one that appears poised to shut him out of being governor or council president.
Habubi's victory in the January 31 vote reflects the changing face of politics as sectarian bloodshed fades and Iraqis demand the services they say established powers have failed to provide.
But his subsequent sidelining by larger powers highlights the challenges facing a nation just six years into a shaky new democracy, where historical feuds and recent bloodletting threaten stability and resurgent violence is a breath away.
Habubi won 13 percent of the vote, or 37,846 ballots, more than anyone else in Shi'ite Kerbala. But because new election rules favor big parties and coalitions, the candidate running on a one-person slate was assigned just one council seat.
The two second-place slates in Kerbala, one backed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, are expected to form a bloc and divvy out top posts among themselves when the council's 27 members meet to elect a governor and council president in several weeks.
That disappoints those fed up with major religious parties that since the U.S.-led invasion thrust them into power have used sectarian quotas and backroom deals to apportion key posts.
SERVICES, JOBS, RECONSTRUCTION
Several hundred people took to the streets of Kerbala on Saturday, demanding Habubi be named governor. 'We want an honest governor who serves Iraq,' one banner read.
Habubi, speaking in his well-appointed home in central Kerbala, emphasized a need for a more technocratic government to avoid repeating Iraq's past mistakes. "Scientists, theorists, people with experience -- they must be involved," he said.
Teeming with pilgrims visiting the golden-domed Imam Hussein shrine, Kerbala like all of Iraq needs investment to meet basic needs and create jobs for youths often courted by militants.
Many Iraqis bitterly complain that there is little to show for the billions of dollars in U.S. and Iraqi money spent since 2003 to improve services and rebuild a country shattered by war.
In Kerbala, where the streets are pocked by craters and trash dances in the wind, voters were drawn to Habubi's record of delivering as a bureaucrat and his unassuming style.
Such quotidian desires were also seen as helping propel Maliki, whom many Iraqis credit for the sharp drop and violence and whose Rule of Law coalition campaigned on a law and order message, to victory in many parts of southern and central Iraq.
Habubi, who blamed parliament for designing electoral rules benefiting larger parties, hasn't ruled out forming coalitions.
Safia al-Suhail, an independent lawmaker, warned the row may make wider ripples at a delicate moment for Iraq.
"This goes against voters' intentions in Kerbala and all of Iraq ... it could lead people to abandon the political process."
-- March 15, 2009 8:12 AM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
This site seems to gone very quiet since January of this year. Has the RV occurred, everyone cashed in their millions and are very busy spending???
BritishKnite.
-- March 19, 2009 8:13 AM ∞
Franko wrote:
So it seems. Wish it was that, I Feel like I missed something. I enjoyed reading this blog but now get my info from the "other" site but its alot to go through. My guess is everyone will return if something major breaks.
-- March 19, 2009 10:54 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Hi All, Here's some good news...
Iraq sees first Western tour group since Saddam fell
Thu Mar 19, 2009 12:53pm GMT
BAGHDAD, March 19 (Reuters) - Iraq has received its first group of Western tourists since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Tourism and Antiquities Ministry said on Thursday.The group of eight holidaymakers -- five Britons, two Americans and a Canadian -- arrived on March 8 and toured Iraq's landmark historic sites, including the Biblical city of Babylon, fabled home to the Hanging Gardens.
Their three week trip was organised by a British adventure tour operator, ministry spokesman Abdul-Zahra al-Telagani said, but he declined to name the company.
"This is the first group since the regime's fall," he said. "We expect these tourists will convey a positive message to their citizens back home that the situation in Iraq is good."
Their itinerary included the Castle of Arbil -- a relic of the medieval Ottoman empire in Iraq's northern Kurdish region -- as well as the ancient Assyrian city of Nineveh, in Mosul, a dangerous city still crawling with Sunni Arab insurgents.
They visited the al-Askari mosque in Samarra, one of the holiest sites of Shi'ite Islam, whose devastation in a bomb attack in 2006 unleashed a wave of sectarian violence that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war.
In the south, the tourists saw the holy Shi'ite shrines of Kerbala and Najaf, which are already popular with religious pilgrims from Iran, and the southern oil-hub Basra.
They will finish up this weekend with a visit to the Iraqi National Museum. The building was re-opened last month for the first time since looters pillaged it after the U.S.-led invasion.
Iraq, part of a region known as the cradle of civilisation, has countless archaeological and religious sites but decades of war have shut the doors to foreign tourist groups.
-- March 19, 2009 2:32 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-DNO jumps after report on Iraq field
Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:52am GMT
STOCKS NEWS Reuters09:51GMT 19 March 2009-DNO jumps after report on Iraq field
Shares in Norwegian oil company DNO International (DNO.OL) rise 15.5 percent after business newspaper Dagens Naeringsliv quotes Iraq's oil minister as saying DNO's Tawke field in the autonomus Kurdish region is ready for export.
"It is just to get started as soon as possible, without further delay," Hussain al-Shahristani tells the Norwegian daily.
Arctic Securities analyst Trond Omdal says this mirrors earlier statements from Kurdish authorities and advisors to the oil ministry in Baghdad. DNO's share price has in the past risen or fallen steeply on prospects for exporting its Iraqi oil.
"The oil minister is now saying it -- that they can start exporting from the Kurdish fields as soon as possible -- without a new oil law," Omdal says.
-- March 19, 2009 2:36 PM ∞
byrd wrote:
Went dead when Sarah bugged out. Hope the complainers are happy now. I cast my vote for her to post again!!
-- March 19, 2009 3:03 PM ∞
Franko wrote:
I agree with you byrd. Would be nice to know if she is well and still around.
-- March 19, 2009 3:31 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
ALL,
Washington Post is reporting from interesting developments in Iraq. Just what does this mean, I do not know. Any speculations?
---------------------------------------------New Alliances Emerge in Advance of Iraq Elections
Negotiations Raise Possibility That Politicians Could Bridge Ethnic, Sectarian DividesBy Anthony ShadidWashington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, March 19, 2009; 6:01 PM
BAGHDAD, March 19 -- Six weeks after provincial elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has allied himself with an outspoken Sunni leader in several provinces and broached a coalition with a militant, anti-American cleric, suggesting the emergence of a new axis of power in Iraq centered on a strong central government and nationalism.
Negotiations are still under way in most provinces, distrust remains entrenched among nearly all the players and agreements could crumble. But the jockeying after the Jan. 31 elections indicates that politicians are assembling coalitions that cross the sectarian divide ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, a vote that will shape the country as the U.S. military withdraws.
"There is a new political map," said Anwar al-Luheibi, a Sunni adviser to Maliki, who is a Shiite. "And I anticipate this map will be far better than the one we had before."
The negotiations and deal-making mark a departure from politics that have hewed almost exclusively to ethnic and sectarian lines, fomenting the discord that brought Iraq to the precipice of civil war in 2006 and 2007. They represent the first round of a great game that may resolve a question unanswered since Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003: What coalition of interests will find the formula to wield power in Iraq from Baghdad?With his strong performance in the provincial elections, Maliki is the front-runner in forging such an alliance, a remarkable ascent for a lawmaker considered weak and pliable when he was put forward as a consensus candidate for prime minister three years ago.
Forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order, his party won a majority of seats on the council in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, and emerged as the single biggest bloc in Baghdad and four other provinces in the south, which has a Shiite Muslim majority. In most provinces, though, his party must make coalitions if it hopes to help determine who will fill the governorship and other key provincial positions.
Saleh al-Mutlaq, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician known for his nationalism and strident opposition to the U.S. occupation, said his supporters would ally with Maliki in four provinces: Diyala, Salahuddin, Baghdad and Babil. Mutlaq heads the Iraqi National Dialogue Party, but his supporters ran under different labels in provincial contests. Mutlaq said Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister who led a secular list in the campaign, would also join the alliances.
The convergence of their interests is a stark contrast to the alliances that followed elections in 2005, which Sunni Arabs largely boycotted. Their refusal to vote gave religious Shiites and Kurds disproportionate power in provinces such as Baghdad, Diyala and Nineveh, all with substantial Sunni populations. In predominantly Shiite southern Iraq and Sunni western Iraq, power coalesced around ostensibly religious parties, whose members built their appeal on clandestine organizations in exile, underground networks under Hussein, support from Iran and other neighbors and, occasionally, the end of a militiaman's gun.
This time, some coalitions seem to be based on ideology: a strong central government that Maliki, along with secular candidates such as Allawi and Mutlaq, have endorsed, as well as opposition to the kind of federalism espoused by Maliki's Shiite rivals, who favor a Shiite-ruled zone in the south, and Kurdish parties that control an autonomous region in northern Iraq. Both Maliki and Mutlaq have rallied support among Arab and nationalist constituents by opposing Kurdish territorial claims, particularly around the contested northern city of Kirkuk.Mutlaq draws backing from among the still numerous supporters of Hussein's Baath Party in Sunni regions, and he has long pushed for reconciliation with its members. Despite his reputation as a Shiite hard-liner when he came to power in 2006, Maliki echoed the call this month. In a speech, he urged Iraqis to reconcile with rank-and-file Baathists, those he described as "forced and obliged at one time to be on the side of the former regime."
He declared that it was time "to let go of what happened" in the past.
Mutlaq said he told Maliki in a meeting two months ago that "there was a time when you stood against me on those issues. 'You should be happy I changed,' he told me." Smiling in the interview, Mutlaq joked that first the prime minister "stole the government from us, and now he's trying to steal our political speech from us."Mutlaq said that Maliki had proposed an alliance for parliamentary elections, too. But, he said, "we're still studying the message." Since the fall of Hussein, religious Shites and Kurds had effectively served as the coalition at the heart of power in Iraq. Maliki's emergence has upset that formula, and virtually each component of the Shiite alliance has now gone its own way. The bloc that claimed to speak on behalf of long reticent Sunnis has splintered, too, unable even to agree on a replacement for the speaker of parliament, who resigned in December.
Fayed al-Shammari, a leader of Maliki's Dawa Party in Najaf, who will serve on the provincial council there, said he foresaw a grand coalition for the December parliamentary elections that would join Maliki with influential Sunni leaders, elements of the U.S.-backed Sunni movement that turned against the insurgency and perhaps even Moqtada al-Sadr, a militant Shiite cleric whose followers witnessed a political resurgence in the January vote. Strikingly, it would not include Maliki's other Shiite rivals or Kurds.
A hint of that alignment emerged in Wasit province, where Maliki's supporters were reported to have joined with Allawi's list and Sadr's followers. "There's a great possibility for this," Shammari said, although even he questioned whether it could withstand the still-seismic conflicts over the very nature of the Iraqi state, namely its power in relation to the provinces. "With any coalition, you have an ambition for it to be permanent," he said. "But ambition doesn't always match reality."Mutlaq envisioned three main groups competing in the December vote: A list that he led, Maliki's group and an alliance of Kurds and religious parties -- both the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party. One example of the third grouping has emerged in Diyala province, where the Supreme Council agreed to an alliance with the Islamic Party, said Ridha Jawad Taqi, a lawmaker from the Supreme Council.
Mutlaq, an agricultural engineer who grew wealthy under Hussein's government and is sometimes spoken of as a candidate for Iraq's presidency, said any future national alliance with Maliki would depend on cooperation in the provincial councils.
"We want to see what he's going to give," he said in the interview. "Is he going to behave as a real partner or is he going to try to isolate the others?" He said he was still skeptical. "We don't think Maliki is going to act in a democratic way. We're worried that he's collecting power in a dictatorial way."Mutlaq said he understood that Maliki had already reached provincial alliances with an electoral list supported by Sadr's followers, a deal that Shammari, of Maliki's Dawa Party, called likely. But spokesmen for Sadr and the list of candidates he supported said negotiations were still under way. "We think they only want alliances in the provinces where they're facing difficulties. They reject us in the provinces where they feel comfortable," said Ameer al-Kinani, the head of the Trend of Free Independents, the list Sadr's followers supported. Sadr's supporters did especially well in Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces in southern Iraq, where negotiations are still under way to choose the top officials.
To help win their support, Sadr's officials have insisted Maliki play a role in freeing their supporters in prison. Hazem al-Araji, a Sadr spokesman, estimated as many as 1,500 remained in U.S. custody and 2,500 in Iraqi custody. Like other Sadr officials, he complained that security forces were still arresting their followers in southern provinces.
"There has been a step toward each other," said Salah al-Obeidi, another Sadr spokesman in Kufa, near the sacred city of Najaf. "But until now, Maliki's coalition refuses to give any kind of guarantees and any kind of details of the map they will follow in representing the provinces. This arouses many fears with out friends."
Earlier in his tenure, when his position was far weaker, Maliki courted the Sadrists as a source of support. Last year, though, he turned on them, dispatching the military against their militiamen in Baghdad and Basra. This time around, Sadr's supporters say, Maliki seems to be trying to negotiate from a position of strength.
"He's not in need of the Sadrists anymore?" Obeidi asked. "Maybe, maybe."
But like Mutlaq, he said they would watch the behavior of Maliki's officials in the provincial councils to determine whether they could enter a broader alliance in the next election. "Until now we haven't decided," he said. "Yes, there are big obstacles between us. They can all be bridged. But until now, Maliki has not acted on any promises he made us."Asked if he trusted Maliki, he shrugged his shoulders. "I don't trust any political figure," Obeidi said.
Special correspondents Zaid Sabah and Qais Mizher contributed to this report.-- March 19, 2009 10:10 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Western tourists glimpse antiquity in Iraq
Sat Mar 21, 2009 1:21pm GMT
By Tim CocksBAGHDAD (Reuters) - Bridget Jones, 77, stares up at the ceiling of her Baghdad hotel and thinks carefully for a moment when asked whether she'll recommend Iraq to her friends.
"It depends on the friends. It wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea," the retired British archaeologist said after a two-week group tour of Iraq, the first Western group since mid-2003.
"For starters, their's no coffee, there's no alcohol, if you're a woman you've got to wear a headscarf, and the plumbing isn't brilliant," she said, not even mentioning the risk of being kidnapped by militants or blown up by a roadside bomb.
Jones, from north London, is one of eight Western holidaymakers -- five Britons, two Americans and a Canadian -- who arrived in Iraq on March 8 and have since toured many of Iraq's major historic sites, including the Biblical city of Babylon, fabled home to the Hanging Gardens.
Iraqi tourism officials hope their visit will herald a new era of antiquities tourism in a country known as the cradle of civilisation and which gave birth to such milestones of development as writing, codified law, the wheel and agriculture.
"I've always wanted to see Iraq, because it's where everything started -- the Land of the Two Rivers," Jones said, referring to the Tigris and Euphrates, whose floodwaters enabled some of the world's earliest farming and led the Greeks to coin the name "Mesopotamia" for the land in between them.
Jones used to work for the Royal Commission on Historical Monuments and has long had a passion ancient history.
But was she not worried about security in Iraq?
"No, no I'm an optimist: I always think these things happen to other people," she said, adjusting her thin-rimmed spectacles. "Besides, when you get old, it's far better to die from a bullet in Iraq than to die in a geriatric ward. I haven't got that much longer to live, so why not live to the full?"
"ADVENTUROUS"
As violence falls to lows not seen since mid-2003, Iraq is banking on tourism as a sector that will help it rebuild after years of bloodshed and rife kidnapping drove Westerners away.
The country already attracts thousands of religious tourists to its Shi'ite shrines in the holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala.
Adventure tour company Hinterland Travel brought this group to Iraq. Their itinerary included the Castle of Arbil -- a relic of the medieval Ottoman empire in Iraq's northern Kurdish region -- the al-Askari mosque in Samarra, one of the holiest sites of Shi'ite Islam, and the southern city of Basra.
Standards have a way to go -- the tourists complained of cold showers, waiting too long to gain entry to sites and poor hotel service, but all said they loved their experience. They have toured other hotspots like Afghanistan and they some said they wanted to check what they read in the news about Iraq.
"These people are very adventurous, not your normal tour, but even so we wouldn't have done this nine months ago," said Hinterland's Managing Director Geoff Hann, adding that another group from Russia was already lined up for a second tour.
Unlike many of the Western officials who tour Iraq in helicopters or armoured vehicles wearing flak jackets, the tourists were driven around in an ordinary tour bus, Hann said, wearing only their shirts, trousers and shorts.
"They think I'm mad," Tina Townsend-Greaves, 36, a civil servant from Yorkshire, said of her friends back home. "But it's such an interesting place, politically: it was nice to come out and see it for ourselves. It was an experience."
Abdul-Zahra al-Telagani, spokesman for the Tourism and Antiquities Ministry, said he expected any more tourists would follow suit. Koa Van Chung, from New York City, agrees.
"Sure, there's military checkpoints, there's bureaucracy ... but in a few years this could be a viable tourist spot."
-- March 21, 2009 11:43 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraqi businesswomen push for government supportSun Mar 22, 2009 7:17am GMT
By Waleed IbrahimBAGHDAD, March 21 (Reuters) - Iraqi businesswomen urged the government on Saturday to support them in their push for a greater share of the business that is expected to flourish in Iraq now that the violence is subsiding.
A branch of the U.S. military engineering division helping to rebuild Iraq has been supporting Iraqi businesswomen by offering training seminars and trying to ensure that they have equal opportunities in competing for reconstruction contracts.
"We urge the Iraqi government to have a similar programme that will set aside a percentage of contracts to be awarded to businesses owned by women," said Azza Humadi, manager of the engineering division's Women's Advocate Initiative.
"We urge the politicians among us to introduce legislation in parliament to this effect," she added, speaking at a conference on businesses owned by Iraqi women.
Women have suffered immensely since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which ushered in years of rule by religious groups and Islamist militants who restricted women's rights. The war made widows of thousands, and others' husbands were imprisoned.
Iraqis hope a sharp decline in violence over the past year will herald an investment boom.
U.S. military agencies involved in Iraqi reconstruction said they had awarded 1,020 contracts to women-owned businesses in 2008, worth a total of $187 million.
One woman at the conference was the business development manager of a group planning a $5 million mall in Iraq.
Women are little represented at the upper levels of business in the Middle East in general, yet the wife of Islam's Prophet Mohammad, Khadija, was known to be a wealthy trader.
"The entry of women into the business world is no less important than her participation in politics," female Iraqi lawmaker Shatha al-Musawi told the conference.
"I say that if this matter needs new legislation, we as members of parliament will do our best." (Writing by Mohammed Abbas: editing by Tim Pearce)
-- March 22, 2009 4:16 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Since on other forums I constantly read the back an forth regarding a zero lop of the Iraqi currency I decided to write the Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina.
Her paper is entitled, Dropping Zeros, Gaining Credibility? Currency Redenomination in Developing Nations. Below I have included my email to her and then her response. I hope this is helpful.
_____________________________
Dr. Mosley,I have read your paper entitled Dropping Zeros, Gaining Credibility? Currency Redenomination in Developing Nations; I am interested in your research as it pertains to the country of Iraq. In my opinion, when specifically applied to Iraq the hypotheses asserted make it likely their Central Bank meets many of the criteria for potential redenomination of its currency. The three criteria standing out to me are an independent central bank, under International Monetary Fund stand by agreement, and the desire for an inflow of capital to their government controlled oil sector.
Currently Iraq has 25000, 10000, 5000, and 1000 denominated notes in circulation; do you know of any formula a central bank or government employs to arrive at the number of zeros removed from its currency during redenomination? Since Iraq meets the criteria for redenomination is it safe to conclude the notes currently in circulation are nothing more than transitory notes?
I know your time is valuable and I appreciate you reading my email. I look forward to hearing from you.
Respectively,
Rob N.
__________________________________________________________Dear Robert:
Thanks for your email. It's always a little difficult to extrapolate the results from large-N analyses (based on 70 countries over 30 years) to a particular case at a specific point in time. So I'd be a little hesitant to attach a really high probability to a redenomination in Iraq.
That said, I could imagine that, as a political matter, the current or a future Iraqi government might pursue redenomiation in the future, as much as a means of national identity building (and to distinguish itself from the period of US involvement) as a response to having a currency with several zeroes. The removal of zeroes tends to come in sets of three (with removal of three being most common; removal of six also has occurred in several cases, but is less relevant here).
Of course, any redenomination should not change the underlying value of the notes in circulation. While there are some instances on record of fraud in the redenomination process, the general practice is for governments to freely exchange old notes for new ones, and for there to be a period of parallel circulation of both old and new notes (to allow time for the transition to occur).
I hope this is helpful.
Layna
Layna Mosley
Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
University of North Carolina
Chapel Hill, NC
__________________________________________________________Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 23, 2009 11:33 AM ∞
Matt wrote:
http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.com/2009/02/prediction-dinars-final-value.html
Looks good
-- March 25, 2009 12:08 PM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Matt,
I read the blog, but didn't find the prospect of 1IQD:$0.005 (half a cent) very appealing. That means IQD 1m = $5,000. I would like more! I have also been pondering what effect a possible RV would have. So far we've really only been considering those with cash, but what about those with shares? If an RV of 1:1 occurred for instance, those companies on the Iraqi stock exchange would possibly exchange a lot of their cash reserves (into USD, Euros, etc) and use the money to expand. As we know, expansion of a company in any stock market causes the underlying shares to be worth more. Especially if the company has a lot of cash on its books and can afford to pay out generous dividends. Many shareholders may cash in and become millionaires 10 or 100 times over depending on what price they bought the shares at. Even if many didn't cash in their shares, there's still the prospect of 1000s being paid out in dividends. I wonder if this is sustainable by the Iraqi economy?
By the way, I noticed the name at the end of the blog. Is it yours??
BritishKnite.
-- March 25, 2009 3:01 PM ∞
Matt wrote:
Knite,
I think that an rv to 1:1 or near it would cause too much strain on the economy. This could cause inflation ala Germany 1922-1923.
I think they want a competitive currency, but not quite dominant.Matt
PS-- Yup, Jumping in Pools is mine. Like it?
-- March 25, 2009 6:37 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Iraq’s hard cash reserves estimated at more than $70 billion, minister says
Azzaman, March 18, 2009
Iraq could stash away up to $70 billion dollars from its oil sales in the past two years, Finance Minister Baqer Jaber Solagh said.
The minister said the money was saved when oil prices surged and hovered at $150 for several months.
Iraq’s exports have averaged 1.9 million barrels a day and despite the sharp drop in prices recently the country is working hard to boost output and exports.
“Without these savings our conditions would have aggravated amid the drastic fall in oil prices and the current financial crisis,” Solagh said.
He said Iraq has hard cash deposits of about $44 billion in the Central Bank and up to $30 billion in a fund the finance ministry administers.
The minister made the remarks in response to reports that Iraq was facing a severe financial crisis due to the drop in oil prices.
“Our conditions would have been similar to other oil-producing countries such as Venezuela if we had not set this money aside,” the minister said.
Oil revenues make up 94% of Iraq’s hard cash revenues.
(www.azzaman.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 26, 2009 9:56 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Kurdish Prime Minister attacks Iraq's "failed" oil policy
The prime minister of northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region on Wednesday blasted the Iraqi petroleum minister for his "failed" policies.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 26, 2009 9:58 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Iraq elections watchdog says January poll results final
Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:07am GMT
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The results of Iraq's January provincial elections are final and complaints have been rejected, the country's election watchdog said.The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) said it had received 593 complaints about the polls, which took place peacefully and saw allies of Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki do well at the expense of more religious groups.
"Iraqi judges have approved all the decisions (election results) adopted by the IHEC ... after all complaints were rejected, and these decisions are considered final," IHEC member Hamdiya al-Husseini told Reuters late on Thursday.
The polls took place without a single major attack, making them the country's most peaceful elections since U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Complaints about the election results included voters not finding their names on the electoral register, and elderly voters being coerced into voting for particular parties.
Despite the complaints, the poll results have been broadly accepted by Iraq's political groups.
-- March 27, 2009 1:52 PM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Baghdad gets set for 'Big Bang' with a difference
Dodging the curse of the financial crisis that brought the global economy to its knees, Iraq's soaring stock exchange is about to experience its Big Bang.
Already up by about 30 per cent this year, as investors cash in on improved security and rock-bottom share prices, electronic trading is set to be introduced in a month, a move that investors hope will herald a new bonanza.
At present, mustachioed men in smart suits lean over a wooden barrier that rings the trading floor, squinting at a wall of whiteboards on which brokers scribble the price of stocks while jabbering into mobile phones or shouting to clients. This quaint trade in the shares of potentially one of the biggest economies in the Middle East was due to be phased out a year ago but delays in installing equipment and collecting shareholder information from the 91 listed companies foiled that plan.
Only now is the Baghdad bourse ready for its first wave of automation. Traders expect the new system to boost prices further. They are still recovering from their collapse after years of war. The cheapest stock is a ½ dinar - a fraction of a penny - and the most expensive 100 dinar (6p).
Electronic trading will also help the market to expand. Five companies - three banks and two hotels - have already been suspended from manual transactions and should start to be traded electronically by mid-April. The other companies will move over during the course of the year.
Ultimately, the whiteboards will come down and trading will shift to an adjacent room of computers in lines of booths where stockbrokers will work. One investor, Rashid al-Waili, 64, is eagerly awaiting the revolution. “It will quicken the process of selling and buying,” he said. Current transactions take up to two weeks, while shareholder certificates are submitted to the company, verified and handed to the stock exchange. Electronic trading will complete the deal in five minutes.
Opened in June 2004 with funding and support from the US-led coalition, the bourse is Iraq's first independent stock market. During Saddam's time the old Baghdad stock exchange reported to the Ministry of Finance.
Its current market capitalisation is about $2 billion (£1.4 billion), below its peak in 2005, but it has been clawing its way back in the past year.
Taha Ahmed Abdul Salam, chief executive of the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), said that Iraqi share prices were wiped out during the worst days of the sectarian conflict that gripped the country between 2005 and 2007.
Many investors sold stocks and fled overseas and trading was suspended for several months in 2006. A crackdown on the violence has helped to restore stability. The market is open again for business and interest is picking up. “In 2008 and this year, high liquidity returned and new liquidity came to buy shares, which makes demand for shares rise,” Mr Abdul Salam told The Times.
Foreign money is among the new liquidity, with two international funds buying and selling stocks. Interest from overseas remains limited, because Iraq's feuding parliament has yet to pass a securities law, which would offer greater protection and assurances for all investors.
Mr Abul Salam hopes that the only way is up, in terms of market size and value. “I believe in one or two years I will have more than 200 [listed] companies,” he said. Trading time could also increase from two-hour sessions, three days a week, to 24-hour trading.
source: the times online. England
-- March 28, 2009 4:24 AM ∞
mattuk wrote:
Maliki urges Iranian firms to invest in Iraq
18 hours ago.
28th march 2009BAGHDAD (AFP) — Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Friday urged Iranian businesses to invest in Iraq and help with the reconstruction of his war-ravaged country.
"We call on Iranian enterprises to come and work and invest in Iraq and to contribute to the construction process in the country, as we have already asked international businesses to do," he said at a meeting with Ali Larijani, speaker of Iran's parliament.
Maliki said his administration "wants to see relations with Iran make progress in all sectors," according to a statement.
Larijani said Iran is "ready to support the Iraqi government and to remain at its side to make the Iraqi economy grow."
Both Iran and Iraq, which was invaded by US-led forces in 2003 to oust the Sunni Muslim regime of the late Saddam Hussein, have Shiite majority populations.
Larijani, who has been visiting Iraq since Tuesday, has dismissed as "fine words" the recent message by US President Barack Obama to Iranian leaders.
On March 20 Obama proposed an end to three decades of animosity in a message marking the Iranian New Year, in a departure from the tough line adopted by his predecessor George W. Bush.
"Our dispute with the US is not an emotional issue and cannot be resolved by congratulatory messages or fine words," Larijani told reporters on Wednesday during a visit to the Shiite holy city of Najaf, south of Baghdad.
"Our differences have been going on for 30 years," he said.
-- March 28, 2009 5:02 AM ∞
NEIL wrote:
I am deeply saddened to see this blog deteriorate to the point where there is only one or two posts each day and then it is some irrelevant happening in Iraq.
All you oldtimers come on back and resume posting like you did in the past. I am receptive to reading whatever you choose to write about whether it be about your nephew being jailed for something he didn't do, or your unwed teenage niece having a baby and going on welfare, or the status of your health, or what you are going to spend your newfound wealth on when the dinar pegs.
Every night at 9:00 P.M. I come down to my office in the basement and have a couple of stiff shots of vodka and mountain dew and read the T&B and occasionally post something with whiskey doing most of the talking. After following this routine for some four or five years and enjoying it immencely, I now find somewhat of a void in my evening routine.
Come on fellas, lets all start back posting and get the old gang back communicating with each other.
I have read this blog every night for four or five years-- March 28, 2009 11:05 PM ∞
NEIL wrote:
Oops:
The last sentence was superfloues as I did not intend to send it. I began a sentence with that comment and decided to say something else, and forgot to omit it.
Neil
-- March 28, 2009 11:13 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Neil,
I think the issue stems from the slow movement of the Dinar. All the speculation has run its course and hopes of a revaluation has gone by the wayside. I believe the administrator must determine if there is a enough interest to continue the blog. If it is determined interest does not exsist then it is time to end this blog.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 29, 2009 10:17 AM ∞
NEIL wrote:
Rob N.
My thanks to you for your faithfulness to the blog and the effort you put forth in researching dinar related information and passing it on to us. I still believe that we have viable investment and as Roger has said many times, "it takes the Iraqi officials forever to get anything done". Surely, they will wake up soon and recognize what an advantage it will be to the Iraqi people to have the Dinar valued higher.
Of greater concern to me right now is what is going on in this country. Mr. Obama and the Democrats have charted a fiscal course that will lead to Hell. No person or country can live for a prolonged period on borrowed money. The immediate future will look great with those thousands of billions of dollars floating around priming the financial pumps but at some point, the lenders are going to become sceptical and stop lending and then what happens.
To further compound this impending catastropy, interest rates are surely going back up along with inflation and repayment of this debt will consume a lion's share of our national budget. As businesses close and people are laid off, the incoming revenue to the Treasury is greatly dimished, so less revenue and run-away spending with borrowed money is a receipe for fiscal disaster.
The national deficit is programed to run around one trillion per year for the foreseeable future. We can't even slow down the spending, much less pay back any of the debt.
IMO we should let the chips fall as they will without any government intervention other than supporting unemployment compensation for laid off workers. For every business that fails, if there is a viable demand for its service or product then some astute businessman will open a business to accomodate this demand.
If anyone sees anything good coming from our current course of action, I would appreciate hearing your views.
-- March 29, 2009 11:06 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Neil,
I agree with your assessment concerning our current couse charted by Obama. In my view, Obama is a puppet just as Bush on back to Johnson controlled by the banking elite.
Our current crisis was manufactured by the banking oligarchy to bankrupt this nation and its people. Sadly, in this environment the people of the United States are being held as collateral for perpituity.
Based upon the governments actions I will not be surpirsed if we see inflation and interest rates reminiscent of the mid to late 1970's. In my opinion, a loaf of bread could cost $6.00 a loaf especially if gold prices jump to $6000.00 an ounce as some have predicted.
Our situation is dire and the American people sit back and allow it to happen. It is time for us to demand our country back.
Neil, one other admonition if I may. Let us not continue to be caught in a false paradigm. The right/left paradigm is a tool used by these oligarchs to divide us as a people. We must come together and throw off this paradigm to see what lies behind Obama all the way back to Johnson is sinister.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 12:03 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Neil,
For a matter of record, I still believe the Dinar is viable and potentially profitable investment.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 2:11 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Iraq seeks to amend economic pact with U.K.– ministry
March 30, 2009 - 11:59:28BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The Iraqi Trade Ministry on Monday said that Iraq wants to reconsider and amend the economic pact with Britain, to comply with the developments taking place in the country.
“This came in a meeting between the ministry’s undersecretary, Waleed Habeed al-Mousawi, and a British diplomat in Baghdad,” said a release issued by the ministry and received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
“Al-Mousawi called on activating the Iraq-U.K. mutual committee,” it added.
“Iraq is keen to have Britain as a partner in the rebuilding process,” it noted.
(www.en.aswataliraq.info)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 4:26 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
UW-Madison to sign agreement with Iraqi school
University of Wisconsin-Madison is signing an agreement to collaborate with a prominent university in Iraq in teaching and research.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 4:29 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Maliki asserts at summit forces' preparedness to fill security vacuum 30/03/2009 18:06:00
Baghdad (NINA)- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has asserted that Iraqi forces became ready to fill any possible security vacuum that would be created when the U.S military forces withdraw from Iraq. In a speech delivered at the 21st Arab summit.
(www.ninanews.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 4:31 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Iraq issues tender for 45 oil wells in South Rumaila
Mon Mar 30, 2009 10:25am
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's South Oil Company on Monday issued a tender for the drilling of 45 new oil wells in its super giant South Rumaila oil field.
The 30 producer wells and 15 injection wells, tendered on a turnkey rate basis, should be completed within 25 months, according to the tender posted on the state-owned company's Web site.
(www.reuters.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 30, 2009 4:33 PM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Neil....
I drink very little vodka but I do know that Jim beam will set you free. I've also followed this forum for several years and always check it at least once a day. I started buying the Dinar in August 2004 while in Iraq on a project. Considering the appreciation and interest earned, the Dinar has been a good investment...of course, I'm waiting on the RV for the big payday...I continue to believe the initial RV will be USD 0.33.
In the meantime I've continued to invest money in the FOREX market and, even though you can make some money in it, it's getting a little wierd in the current situation.
My hope is the RV will bring us enough money to regain our country before all our rights are given away by our glorius leaders in Washington. The conversations in my neck of the woods always begin with, "is it time for the guns yet?"
-- March 30, 2009 11:49 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Conference in Arbil next week on oil wealth
March 30, 2009 - 04:46:39ARBIL / Aswat al-Iraq: A conference will be held in Arbil on April 7th on the distribution of the oil wealth in Iraq under the auspices of the UN and with the participation of international experts, the coordinator of the Kurdistan’s government for UN affairs said on Monday.
“The conference is the continuity of the first conference held in Baghdad last November of the distribution of the oil wealth in Iraq,” Dr. Dindar Zebari told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
“The conference will be held under the auspices of the UNAMI office in Iraq and with the participation of UN experts and oil, finance and planning ministries as well as speaker and members of the Iraqi and Kurdish parliaments,” he also said.
Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 31, 2009 2:30 PM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
All,
Oil price too low to support investment: industry official
Oil prices, at around 50 dollars a barrel, will not support huge investments needed in the sector to meet demand, the secretary-general of the International Energy Forum said on Monday.
(www.noozz.com)Thanks,
Rob N.
-- March 31, 2009 2:31 PM ∞
Laura Parker wrote:
Tsalagi,
I know what you mean with your expressed seniments of "are they coming for our guns yet". Our founding fathers did not trust banks or too much government. What the USA will look like after Obama and congress gets finish with us is anyone's guess.
I also did not know you were in Iraq in 2004. What was the reason you were there and what did you think of the country?
I too look at this forum on a continuing basis. Sometimes I skip a week or two if traveling etc. But I try to keep up with everything happening. Unforunately, we lost our Iraqi Updates due to them not being free anymore. And I haven't heard from anyone out of Iraq in awhile.
Has anyone been listening about the new worm hitting the computers for april fools day. News is reporting on this. I made sure my computer security was completely updated.
Laura Parker
Laura Parker
-- April 1, 2009 12:07 AM ∞
Tsalagi wrote:
Laura…
Our founding fathers gathered up armed citizens and defeated a despot tyrant, King George, and regained our god given rights. They also realized that Governments are prone to take your rights from you if you have no means to defend against it. Governments simply don’t understand that they work for “we the people”. That’s why they are “public servants”. It’s simple….while we retain our guns we have the necessary means to protect our rights.
My project in Iraq was to build and commission water plants. I’m a systems engineer/project manager and worked several years in the Middle East. Iraq is a mess due to the war but the people are easy going and nice to work with. Just remember, Iraq is known as the cradle of civilization and has a long history. I would love to go back as a tourist one day.
I just saw on the news that the new worm has been released and slowly spreading. I use “windows live onecare” and it keeps me protected at all times.
Cheers....
-- April 1, 2009 1:04 PM ∞
BritishKnite wrote:
Hi all,
I found this interesting snippet a few days ago. With the British now leaving Basra, hopefully this signals better things are on the way. The article mentions the price of property in Basra. In the link below, the snippet is in the grey area on the right. It mentions million dollar properties in Basra! Hopefully, the IQD will rise in value too. The first tourists were also in Iraq a couple of weeks ago - albeit on a guarded tour.
http://img.metro.co.uk/e-edition/A15v49/Metro20090330/resources/15.htm
Thanks,
BritishKnite.
-- April 1, 2009 3:01 PM ∞
Roger wrote:
Hi all,
Back for R&R, but will be leaving for the sandbox soon again.
Looking in retrospect how this Dinar investment went, I must say that I have had most success so far on the ISX (That is for the uninitiated, the Iraqi Stock Exchange)
My basic set up was to purchase 40 mill Dinars, in currency, and put it under the mattress, holding on to it in the hope of an RV. For a while, I did just that.
Now, this set up is probably the most common one, but I choose'd to go roads less travelled.
I decided to put all my Dinars in an Iraqi business investment bank, and with a portion of that funding, buy stocks on the ISX.
So how did it pan out so far?
Well, a market that is starting from scratch, rusted valves, leaking pipes, and squeaky wheels, really can't go down, as the market starts out with nothing except junk.
Make the junk work, have been the work order for decades there, so any infusion, any investment, any new equipment, or any new influx in any way or form is an upper, or a boost.
The Iraq economy, while it is sensing lower oil prices, is living in a bubble of it's own.
While the rest of the world is experiencing a feeling of downtrend, loss, and recession, the Iraqis have a completely different view of the future.
They have already been through a loss, a deprivation of their rights, and an economic depression that would make them laugh when they hear whiners from the west having to give up one of their cars, or have to give up the Starbucks as the morning Java fix.
Out of 26 million Iraqis, about 10 millions earn LESS than a Dollar a day.
Their recent experience from Saddam, the invasion, the insurgency, the Al Qaeda, the sectarian killings, and finally the truce, is a thirty year ordeal that have just recently ended, and they feel they are walking around in the garbage heap of what they once had.
Now, they are cautiously optimistic about the future.
Reports form the outside world of a global recession, is for them so insignificant, as they immediately compare it with what themselves have just gone through, and it seems more like nothing for them.
So the Iraqis are living in a completely different reality bubble, where the worries that the rest of the world have, is a laughing matter for them.
Seeing firsthand myself, in Iraq, what the Iraqis are thinking, from an investors viewpoint this is an important point to remember.
The Iraqi investors climate is happening in another reality bubble, and proof of the pudding is how investments are flowing into Iraq.
When I started to invest in Iraqi stocks, the ISX index was around 30.000, and now it is close to 200.000.
I decided to put 10 millions in a savings account, and put 30 millions on the ISX and get a decent portfolio of stocks.
It was roughly 2 years ago I transferred everything to Iraq, into a Warka Bank account, and started to get a decent spread on the stocks.
At the start when I bought 40 million Dinars as a currency, I was able to buy all those Dinars for about 26 or 27.000 Dollars, thereabout..
Today, the currency itself have gone up and is worth roughly 35.000 Dollars.
Ok, but as I took 3/4 of the money and put it into ISX, there is about 30 million dinars that are doing me another kind of work.
Those money have brought me far the best return as we speak.
Fairly often I get an e-mail saying that dividends on that or that company have been awarded to me, and either they have credited my savings account with X amount of Dinars coming from the dividend payout, or they have given me stocks, in payment instead.
(That is the two most common ways to pay dividends, either you get cash, and that is that.....or...you will get stocks in the same company to the same value as the dividends, then it is up to you if you want to sell those stocks, and get your profit, or just stay on as a bigger shareholder)
In that way, my savings account have swelled into 14 millions (from 10 M), and the value of the stocks have risen from...well you figure yourself, with the index I just mentioned.
I can do all this, and still have exactly the same anticipation as the person have, that is sitting and waiting for an RV, with the cash in the mattress, as I will benefit in exactly the same way as he will, if it happens.
The difference is that the Dinar is working for me , and is on an aggressive growth curve in the meanwhile.
I am telling you all this, rather personal financial details, so you can see that there are other options rather than sit and hope that the Central Bank of Iraq finally will do something about the Dinar, or watch your investment follow a slow growth curve in the CBI auction.
It is always better to have the money working for you, rather than sit on it (hey, applies to a recession at home too), if you unplug the Dinar you have stuck somewhere, and bring it over to Iraq, and have it invested in the ISX, you will benefit, but Iraq will benefit even more.
An Iraq that prospers, is good for the Dinar.
It kind of becomes a slightly philosophical point at the end here.
If you hold onto your investment, but hold it physically, you can't have the Dinar, its just a plug.
If you unplug them, send them to an investment bank that will help you get into the ISX, now suddenly, you don't hold any Dinars in your hand no longer( feeling empty....eh).....now, you can have as much Dinars as you have imagination to.
Invest it well on the ISX, you can buy and sell as you please now, the control over the Dinar have now shifted from CBI to you.
This is the way I did it, and I recommend it to all Iraqi Dinar investors.
I have not been here for a while, I have had a lot to do over there, lately, they have given us 100 hr's work weeks the last five weeks in a row.
I just started my R&R, (Rest & Recreation) and will be home for two really needed weeks.
My R&R started with a flight in a Black Hawk helio, and ended up with a short commuter flight, in between there was three long flights, and you will get almost proctorized at every turn for safety reasons, so I am glad all that is over (for two weeks).
Warka bank will open up a branch in the "Green Zone", I will not be able to get to it, as my missions are always done at night, but rumors are that they are also going to open up a branch in camp Liberty, and chances that I will be there in daylight hours (between missions) are much higher. That might put me in a position to walk into the Warka bank branch and do bank business on at least one of the bases. On that, we will see.
Ok I just wanted to share my investment experience with you, and give you a couple of well meant hints, on what ways there are, please choose a wise one.
Whatever you choose, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.
You all take care now,
Roger
-- April 1, 2009 8:16 PM ∞
jarod wrote:
Roger, hi, how do you invest in the Iraq stock market, ISX? Does a bank buy shares for you, or what? How do you know what's a good company to pick?
-- April 2, 2009 2:30 AM ∞
jarod wrote:
Roger, hi, how do you invest in the Iraq stock market, ISX? Does a bank buy shares for you, or what? How do you know what's a good company to pick?
-- April 2, 2009 2:32 AM ∞
tony wrote:
Roger,
Thanks for the info and you got me thinking as well I have all this dinar in my safe deposit sitting why not make it work for me.
-- April 2, 2009 5:22 AM ∞
Rob N. wrote:
Roger,
It is good to see you post. Great insights concerning Al-Warka. I still have not opened an Al-Warka account because of the lack of protections in codified law for the would be depositor. Al-Warka is a private bank. What assurances do you have that your funds are protected from seizure?
On a personal note, enjoy your R & R you deserve it. I hope to see you post a few more times prior to your return to Iraq.
Thanks,Rob N.
-- April 2, 2009 9:36 AM ∞