Truck and Barter

Comments

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kevin Brancato wrote:

Anybody out there?

-- September 13, 2006 2:31 PM ∞

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Terri wrote:

YEAH !!! I'v surely missed this forum!

-- September 13, 2006 2:35 PM ∞

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TAYLOR wrote:

UP AND RUNNING!! WOOOOOOOOO!!

Thanks for the new scratch pad! Now where's Roger and his hair shirt?

-- September 13, 2006 2:37 PM ∞

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TAYLOR wrote:

http://www.isx-data.com/opinion/137/revalue-the-iraqi-dinar-yes

I figure we can start the board with some positive thoughts...

Re-Value the Iraqi Dinar? Yes!
One Investor's Take on the Valuation of the Dinar
________________________________________
• By: Roger Isaksson (email)
• Published: 08/31/2006
o this author's past articles

________________________________________
Iraq's current government has been staggering badly under the pressure of growing violence and widespread infrastructure failures. As a result, government consolidation is taking place, including dismissals, arrests, and the emergence of strong personalities. Yet still, most government participants appear to lack the will to stick their neck out and make bold moves that would ultimately help the Iraqi people.
The Iraqi Dinar
Economically, according to my estimates, the Iraqi dinar is hopelessly undervalued, and should have been revalued long ago. The dinar is held down artificially by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), resulting in very little buying power for the Iraqi working class. Currently, most of the day-to-day products needed by Iraqi's are produced outside of the country, but when buying it with an undervalued currency, nobody except the intrepid merchant benefits. In order to justify the costs of manufacture and import into the country, most things that we in the West take for granted are priced far beyond the average Iraqi's ability to pay for it, due in large part to the vast exchange rate differences.
Due to these currency differences, few Iraqi's can afford the items they want or need. As fewer people can afford them, the market for these items is artificially small, resulting in less competition and higher prices. This, coupled with the day-to-day disruption of goods and services due to the violence plaguing large tracts of the country, have led to high levels of inflation.
By revaluing the Iraq Dinar to it's true value towards the market, the Iraqi people will regain a measure of their buying power back. Imported goods will now be within reach of nearly everybody, helped to infuse the Iraqi economy with a new vitality.
True Dinar Value
In analyzing the true value of the dinar, many have predicted a value as high as parity with the US dollar ($1 = 1 dinar), while more conservative estimates have been in the range of a $0.01 = 1 dinar. This range, of course, can only be estimated, because the dinars true strength can only be determined, as with all currencies, once it is freely traded on the world market.
The continued lack of purchasing power of the Iraq dinar will be yet another factor in a long line of social problems, and some have the idea that those problems have to be addressed first before the economy can be fixed. The Iraqi man on the street is having a hard time feeding his family, and in such dire circumstances he may even be tempted to work against his fellow Iraqi's through insurgency, crime and even terrorism. This writer urges the current Iraqi Administration; fix the dinar.
The "Big Guys" are standing at the gate waiting to get in, but have to wait until they get assurances that the investment will not be socialized as in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela, or lost completely due to a full-blown civil war. The new Iraq Investment Laws are tentative right now, but hopefully the Iraqi Government will make it a top priority when they return to session this fall. However, as with everything in Iraq these days, this supposition is a moving target at best.

-- September 13, 2006 2:40 PM ∞

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PreDICtion wrote:

RV .61:1, 13 December 2006 at 0530 eastern. Source (Space). Good luck.

-- September 13, 2006 2:56 PM ∞

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Terri wrote:

Your right, that was a good article...read this one -- FROM THE UN SECRETARY GENERAL -- especially the first and last paragraph -- I'm usually not very sure/clear about what I read...BUT, this article SURE PUT A SMILE ON MY FACE!!!
===============

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060913/mideast_annan_060913/20060913?hub=World&s_name

Mideast sees Iraq as a disaster: Kofi Annan
Updated Wed. Sep. 13 2006 12:41 PM ET
Associated Press
UNITED NATIONS -- U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Wednesday that most leaders in the Middle East believe the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath "a real disaster" for the region.
Annan said many leaders believed the United States should stay until Iraq improves, while others, such as Iran, said the United States should leave immediately. That means that the United States has found itself in the difficult position where "it cannot stay and it cannot leave."
"Most of the leaders I spoke to felt the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath has been a real disaster for them," Annan said. "They believe it has destabilized the region."
Annan returned from a two-week trip to the Middle East late last week. His main goal was to get leaders to support a Security Council resolution imposing a cease-fire in Lebanon, but he said he discussed other issues such as Iraq with the leaders he met.
Iran offered to help the United States leave but did not go into details, Annan said. He would not give his own thoughts on whether he believed the United States should leave Iraq yet.
"The timing has to be optimum and it has to be arranged in such a way that it does not lead to even greater disruption or violence in the region," he said.
Annan's news conference was meant to give him a chance to discuss the results of his trip to the region and take stock of the U.N. ahead of the annual ministerial meeting of the General Assembly, which begins Tuesday.
He said that on Monday, the U.N. would host a meeting of the Iraq Compact, a new group created by Iraqi's government meant to help strengthen its economy.
"The idea here is to generate support for the economic development of Iraq," Annan said. "Wait till next week, the pessimists will be surprised as to what happens."
Annan plans to step down on Dec. 31 when his second five-year term as secretary-general ends.

-- September 13, 2006 2:57 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

It is good that the board is back up. I found myself missing it. Does anyone know the root cause why the board was down?

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:02 PM ∞

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mfriedl1 wrote:

Hi everyone, what's the buzz over here?

-- September 13, 2006 3:12 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

From www.iraqieconomy.org

Kurdistan discovery may tempt oil majors September 7, 2006 - International oil companies including Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, BP and Chevron are positioning themselves to exploit Iraq's rich oilfield potential once the country agrees to legislation protecting their investments.
The attraction lies in more than 500 geological structures believed to contain huge volumes of oil and. Most structures have yet to be drilled and at present almost all Iraq's oil is produced from just 20 fields.
The majors could commit $20 billion into rebuilding and developing Iraqi oil and gas fields but moves so far have been delayed by the deteriorating security situation as well as a lack of definitive legal guidelines for foreign investment.
US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman pressed for a clear legal framework during a July visit to Baghdad declaring it would be instrumental in attracting foreign investment to Iraq's oil sector.
Raising output The government has said it aims to produce 3.5 million b/d of oil by the end of next year and 4 million b/d by the end of 2008 and up to 8 million b/d by the end of 2010. The targets are considered by outsiders impossible to achieve without multi-billion dollar investment from international oil companies.
Most companies have already identified areas of the country particularly in the southern provinces where they would like to explore. France's Total is looking at Majnoon and Bin Umar, Spain's Repsol at Nasiriyah and Shell at Ratawi.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's oil advisor Thamer al-Ghadhban says negotiations could take up to a year to conclude once rules of investment are established but he suggests talks should run alongside parliament's discussions about legislation.
A complicating factor is the question of regional power with politicians split according to religious and ethnic loyalties. Kurds, for example, have been used to a large measure of autonomy even during Saddam's time. The constitution is still vague on whether the country's mineral wealth is controlled by central government or by the regions in which it is located.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:49 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

Here is another from www.iraqieconomy.org

Iraq to invest $4 billion in oil infrastructure September 6, 2006 - Iraq plans to invest $4 billion to build oil refineries and improve ageing infrastructure, Finance Minister Bayan Jabor said. 'Four billion dollars will be allocated to the Oil Ministry to build refineries and improve infrastructure,' Jabor told a news conference.
Iraq has the world's third-largest known oil reserves, but sabotage attacks, corruption and old infrastructure has crippled the sector and caused a severe domestic fuel shortage.
Jabor, who said the spending would come from a planned budget bill for 2007 of about $33 billion, did not say if the investments were aimed at increasing export levels or improving domestic supplies of fuel.
Iraq's oil minister, Hussain Al Shahristani, said earlier that Baghdad planned to raise oil production to 3.0 million barrels per day (bpd) before the end of 2006.
An Oil Ministry official said the ministry hoped to increase domestic production of petrol in its refineries at Basra, Shueyba, Doura and Baiji to 11 million litres per day by the end of the year.
Iraq currently refines eight million litres of petrol per day, way short of a domestic demand of 22-23 million litres per day.
In a move aimed at easing gasoline shortages and reducing smuggling, Iraq's parliament has approved a law that authorises private companies to bid for import licences to supply fuel direct to the open market.
Until now, all oil imports have been conducted by the State Oil Marketing Organisation (Somo), which is also responsible for the sale of Iraqi crude.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:50 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

And another from www.iraqieconomy.org

Slow reconstruction blamed on corruption September 6, 2006 - It has been three years since the fall of the former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein’s government and Iraqis are still lacking basic facilities such as power, clean potable water and sanitation, problems some experts blame on corruption.
“Corruption has become common in Iraq. Every government department is plagued by some type of corruption and the problem has become endemic countrywide,” said Judge Radhi al-Radhi, head of the Commission on Public Integrity (CPI), which is tackling corruption.
So far, some 3,500 corruption cases have been investigated by the CPI, of which 780 cases have been lodged in court but fewer than 50 have been tried, according to officials.
Al-Radhi said that corruption was present in Iraq in many forms - from stealing money from coffers of ministries that should be used for the country’s development, to the purchase of better grades by university students.
This endemic corruption has led to a dire lack of funds for a reconstruction process in a country which has some of the world’s richest oil reserves. Now, families still suffer from having less than four hours of electricity a day, poor potable water and there is open sewage almost everywhere.
The missing millions
“About US $4 billion has been pilfered from state coffers and no one is taking responsibility - but we are working hard to find those responsible,” al-Radhi said.
The US government has injected some US $21 billion for reconstruction and relief funding in addition to the US $5 billion Iraqi Security Forces Fund and the US $19.6 billion Development Fund for Iraq. This brings the total US reconstruction tab to more than $45 billion.
“From this money invested [by the US] and some US $10 billion invested by other donors in Iraq for the reconstruction process, at least 25 percent of the entire amount is missing without an explanation,” al-Radhi said.
According to al-Radhi, some of this money has gone towards the purchase of furniture for government officials who have also restored their homes with government funds.
At present, 70 cases of corruption are being investigated. In one of the cases, a female government official was found guilty of hiring about 40 bodyguards for her personal use but who were on the government payroll.
Al-Radhi also said that about US $1 billion was used by the Ministry of Interior for the purchase of arms which have not been received. Those funds, he said, could have been used for repairing schools and hospitals as well as for other reconstruction work.
“Corruption is definitely hampering reconstruction. Corruption affects development and prevents benefits from flowing to those who most need them,” said Arwa Hassan, Middle East Programme Coordinator for Transparency International (TI), a Berlin-based NGO that monitors corruption worldwide.
The worsening security environment has also facilitated corruption as people do not inform authorities of corrupt colleagues for fear of being threatened or even killed.
“If security was improved, you could have enforcement mechanisms and there would be freedom to actually carry out more proactive work. But as long as the situation remains so difficult, it does not look likely that things will change in the immediate future,” Arwa said.
According to the Iraqi government, there are three bodies that deal with corruption: the Commission for Public Integrity, the Board of Supreme Audit and the Inspector General - the latter of which each ministry has.
“It is fair to say that they are at varying stages of development. Some are dedicated and hard working, others lack competence,” Arwa added.
Failing legal system
“Iraq is failing in addressing corruption and this is pushing up the cost of rebuilding the country and worsening the already deteriorated economy,” said Faya’ad Ziad, a professor of economics at Mustansiriyah University.
“There is no real justice against corrupt people and this is resulting in more people living without access to essential services such as power and sanitation,” Ziad added.
Most of the courts in Iraq have been refusing to take corruption cases because of the huge number of terrorism and kidnapping cases, especially in Baghdad, where corruption is worse.
“For them, corruption is not as important as terrorism, but they are not aware that insurgency is also increasing due to corruption. Some of the looted money is being invested in terrorism,” Ziad said.
Al-Radhi said fear has also delayed prosecution work. “Some 20 judges working on corruption and terrorism cases were killed last year,” he said.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:51 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

And another from www.iraqieconomy.org

Iraq official calls for oil partnerships September 11, 2006 - A top Iraqi official called for partnerships with international companies to boost his country's oil industry on Sunday, saying Iraq's emergence as a "secure petro-democracy" could quell rampant sectarian violence.
Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh, a Kurd, conceded disputes between local officials and the central government over who controls oil proceeds were one of many obstacles to making improvements. But he said he was hopeful that oil would be a "unifying force for Iraqis rather than a resource to fight over."
He spoke of Iraq emerging as a "secure petro-democracy" with the strength to put an end to the violence that threatens to tear the country apart.
"I don't underestimate the gravity of the situation in Iraq," Saleh said during a U.N.- and U.S.-sponsored Iraq donor conference in the Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi. "We are in a very critical situation."
Iraqi leaders are nearing agreement on a long-awaited hydrocarbon law that could usher in huge investments by foreign companies in Iraq's oil sector — and eventually rescue the embattled country from deepening chaos, Saleh said.
The deputy prime minister said he expected the law setting ground rules for managing Iraq's huge petroleum reserves would be approved in parliament by year's end.
"This will open Iraq's oil sector for investment," Saleh said. "We know what it takes. It takes partnerships with international oil companies."
Foreign oil companies, with their huge investment clout and technology, are best placed to quickly modernize Iraq's oil sector and meet the country's goal of doubling the current crude production of 2.5 million barrels per day by 2010, Saleh said.
But the absence of a legal framework governing investments and ownership of the country's oil resources has hampered foreign investment in the sector.
Iraq's oil infrastructure has been under repeated attacks from insurgents. The industry also suffered during the 1990s when the country under Saddam Hussein did not have access to state-of-the-art technology or engineering know-how.
Big oil companies have told the U.S. government they are willing to send crews to Iraq to explore and pump oil — regardless of the violence — as long as there are legal ground rules for their participation, said U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt.
"The oil companies have told us they need to know what the rules of the road are," said Kimmitt, President Bush's special envoy for the Iraq donor talks.
Currently, Iraq's oil production is overseen by the country's Ministry of Petroleum and two state-run oil companies, a centralized management system left over from the regime of Saddam Hussein that Saleh said "has proven to be a disaster."
"Iraq needs investment. Iraq needs to send a strong signal to the international community about investment in oil," the deputy prime minister said. "We need to push liberalization and open our markets."
Saleh, from the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, acknowledged that "differences remain" among those negotiating a hydrocarbon law, particularly on determining whether the resource is controlled by regional governments or Baghdad.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:52 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

The last one from www.iraqieconomy.org

New law allows private entrepreneurs to import fuel September 7, 2006 - Under new regulations, turned into law on Monday, Iraqi entrepreneurs will have the right to import fuel and compete with government-owned fuel distribution network.
Even foreign entrepreneurs, under the new legislation, are allowed to export and distribute fuel products directly. Iraq is currently facing a severe petrol, kerosene and cooking gas shortage.
The law gives Iraqi and foreign entrepreneurs the right to build fuel storages across the country, set up their filling stations and sell fuel directly to customers.
Those to be involved in what many see as a lucrative business opportunity will have taxes on their activities waived for two years.
The law comes as the government has decided to up spending on importing fuel this year to some $800 million a month.
Iraq with massive oil reserves faces severe fuel shortages which were non-existent before the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.
The government blames insurgent attacks on pipelines for the shortages, but Oil Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, say rickety infrastructure and lack of investment are among the reasons.
Most of the country’s fuel imports come from Iran, Turkey, Syria and Kuwait.
Before the U.S. invasion Iraqi refineries churned out 700,000 barrels a day but now they are said to be running at less than half capacity.
A liter of petrol or gasoline has soared to more than $1 dollar at a time the official price is set at nearly 17 cents.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 3:54 PM ∞

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PreDICtion wrote:

RV .61:1, 13 December 2006 at 0530 eastern. Source (Space). Good luck.

-- September 13, 2006 4:22 PM ∞

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Terri wrote:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060913/mideast_annan_060913/20060913?hub=World&s_name

Mideast sees Iraq as a disaster: Kofi Annan
Updated Wed. Sep. 13 2006 12:41 PM ET
Associated Press
UNITED NATIONS -- U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Wednesday that most leaders in the Middle East believe the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath "a real disaster" for the region.
Annan said many leaders believed the United States should stay until Iraq improves, while others, such as Iran, said the United States should leave immediately. That means that the United States has found itself in the difficult position where "it cannot stay and it cannot leave."
"Most of the leaders I spoke to felt the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath has been a real disaster for them," Annan said. "They believe it has destabilized the region."
Annan returned from a two-week trip to the Middle East late last week. His main goal was to get leaders to support a Security Council resolution imposing a cease-fire in Lebanon, but he said he discussed other issues such as Iraq with the leaders he met.
Iran offered to help the United States leave but did not go into details, Annan said. He would not give his own thoughts on whether he believed the United States should leave Iraq yet.
"The timing has to be optimum and it has to be arranged in such a way that it does not lead to even greater disruption or violence in the region," he said.
Annan's news conference was meant to give him a chance to discuss the results of his trip to the region and take stock of the U.N. ahead of the annual ministerial meeting of the General Assembly, which begins Tuesday.
He said that on Monday, the U.N. would host a meeting of the Iraq Compact, a new group created by Iraqi's government meant to help strengthen its economy.
"The idea here is to generate support for the economic development of Iraq," Annan said. "Wait till next week, the pessimists will be surprised as to what happens."
Annan plans to step down on Dec. 31 when his second five-year term as secretary-general ends.

-- September 13, 2006 4:32 PM ∞

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paul wrote:

Hi,
12 million Dinar and growing!

This is my favorite part...

He said that on Monday, the U.N. would host a meeting of the Iraq Compact, a new group created by Iraqi's government meant to help strengthen its economy.
"The idea here is to generate support for the economic development of Iraq," Annan said. "Wait till next week, the pessimists will be surprised as to what happens."

-- September 13, 2006 5:31 PM ∞

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Okie wrote:

==========================================================================
Terri wrote......

"The idea here is to generate support for the economic development of Iraq," Annan said. "Wait till next week, the pessimists will be surprised as to what happens."
========================================================================
This makes a person think that the meeting of the donor nations in the US on 9/18 will have some good news.....

-- September 13, 2006 5:35 PM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

Allow me to address what PreDICtion wrote:
"RV .61:1, 13 December 2006 at 0530 eastern. Source (Space). Good luck." What evidence do you know of to support your assertion? What inside information do you have confirming such an high RV.

I do not believe neither the Central Bank nor the Central Government can support such an RV. The issues in Iraq are many and December RV is unlikely. If an RV occurs in December it may be modest such as: 1345:1.

Of course I hope I am wrong and I sure Roger and Lance shall chide me a second time. Their chiding is fine because iron sharpens iron.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 13, 2006 5:37 PM ∞

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Nelly B - Investor wrote:

I think thats what you call a SWAG (Simple Wild Ass Guess), Rob. The source (space) is a clue there.

-- September 13, 2006 6:28 PM ∞

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brian wrote:

I can only hope that the 18th will at least bring about speculation of a RV and increase value. At this point the NID has to see a increase to keep corruption from continuing. It certaily cant hurt that other countries i.e. Russia are going to help with all the Iraq failing refineries.

-- September 13, 2006 7:46 PM ∞

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Carl wrote:

When you kick the kitty hard enough you usually get results...!
I believe it is time to send that sucker through the uprights...that is.... the Iragi Government Officials for their lack of progress on corruption within their own ranks....How long do you continue to feed the kitty if the kitty keeps turning around and biting you...?
Well! the iraqi kitty has continued to bite us in the economic pockets, and they scream for more corruption funds...excuse me I mean aid...frankly...I think we should let them know in no uncertain terms the funds are connected to results....and results only...either make improvements within your ranks in arrest and convictions.... or the funds are going to be cut off starting this week...
Frankly....I am starting to feel like we have been taken for rubes....enough is enough...its time to change game plans.....

-- September 13, 2006 10:11 PM ∞

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C1Jim wrote:

Not to be negative, just another view on the dinar.

C1Jim

http://www.isx-data.com/opinion/139/will-the-iraqi-dinar-rise-not-likely

Will the Iraqi Dinar Rise? Not Likely
A brief look at the realities of a meteoric currency re-valuation

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By: David Sotnick (email)
Published: 09/07/2006
this author's past articles

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many have speculated that the Iraqi dinar (IQD) is set for a meteoric rise in 'value', with claims/rumors of the dinar being pegged 'in the near future' at levels ranging from $0.01 USD per dinar to as much as $1.00 USD per dinar.

First, let us examine these claims for what they must be; a scam, pure fiction or, at best, reasoned speculation.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
Clearly, the vast majority of dinar-related claims appear to be a blatant scam, preying on the misinformed. Dozens of websites abound with information on the supposed previous value of the dinar, at or above $3.00 USD per dinar. On the surface, these claims are true, if one happily ignores the fact that this arbitrary level was picked by Saddam and his cronies and had absolutely no basing in economic fundamentals. Beware any source claiming these numbers as some kind of indicator of future value.

A second prevalent claim is that, much like the Kuwaiti dinar (KWD) during the first Gulf War, the Iraqi dinar is set for an overnight rise in value on a similar scale. Some simple facts however, reveal that these situations share nothing in common other than geography and the players involved. The Kuwaiti dinar had been historically valued at levels at or near those levels seen immediately after the liberation of Kuwait by Coalition forces (and in the 15 years since). The catastrophic, yet brief dip in the KWD's value was purely reflective of the economic uncertainty that the Iraqi invasion caused. The fact that once the Iraqi's were removed from Kuwait the currency bounced back to 'normal' levels should not surprise anyone. The KWD's worth was founded in decades of economic management by the Kuwaiti central bank, which had a track-record of demonstrating that a high exchange rate was sustainable for the Kuwaiti economy.

In discussing the IQD, a parallel is often made when attempting to justify the 'impending' rise in the value of the Iraqi dinar. Often people will cite (selectively of course) the valuations of several neighboring Gulf countries currency exchange rates. Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and others are touted as the 'natural' exchange rate for the region, given their similarity in both peoples and of course resources. However, this precludes the fact that Iran, Iraq's closest neighbor and clearly, if one is to look at the situation on the ground, most influential, has an exchange rate of over 9,000 Iranian Rial to the USD. If one feels the need to believe the superficial comparisons made in the positive, one also needs to look at those that may reflect negatively on the Iraqi situation.

A final comparison that you may see involves the supposed rise in value of the Afghanistan Afghani. In short, this currency has not experienced any real gains since the liberation from the Taliban. What it did experience was a phenomenon known as 'zero-lopping', in that the government decided to simply remove a number of trailing zeroes from their printed bills out of sheer convenience. Prices, and the Afghani's exchangeable values, immediately reflected these changes. No rise in value was or has been seen to the respective currency holder, or to the Afghan people.

One needs to remember that physical currency is simply a piece of paper with pretty pictures and an arbitrary number printed on it. Real value can only obtained through the trade of this paper, and its relative worth when compared to other currencies, which brings us to Iraq.

Reasoned Speculation, or How I Determined the Value of the IQD
At this point, in this author's opinion, targeting a specific exchange rate for the IQD is nonsensical, unless the person spreading the rumor has the ear of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) or has a complete understanding of the macro and micro-economic situation on the ground in Iraq. I would venture that nobody has such a complete picture, and that you would be better served to simply throw darts at a board when it comes to determining values.

Predicting the future of the Iraqi dinar is akin to predicting the future price of a given companies shares, without the 1) information needed to do it properly, 2) a language barrier which prevents all but a few from actually understanding what little information IS out there, and 3) a low-level civil war that makes gathering economic indicators and trends nearly impossible.

So what do we have to go on in terms of the true valuation of the dinar? Most obviously, the historical exchange rates of the current Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) regime. These rates have been steadfastly 'pegged' at close to 1500 IQD per USD now for almost three years. If one is to look at the daily currency auctions posted on the CBI's website, we can see that they seem to be managing the currency quite responsibly, and if anything have managed to stave off downward pressure, rather than stop some magical upward swing that many hope for. Through all the political bickering, sectarian violence and oil disruptions, the rate has traded within a very tight range of values.

In the face of an inflation rate hovering around 50%, the bank has done an admirable job of maintaining the current value of the dinar. One should not be surprised that given the on-the-ground realities, inflation and other economic factors, the dinar is probably slightly OVER-valued today. If the CBI was to back off on it's currency interventions, the value, at least in the short-term, would likely drop.

The Re-Pegging Myth
If the CBI were to decide tomorrow to 're-peg' the dinar to some arbitrary value (i.e. intervene to maintain the auction prices at a higher exchange rate value), of, say, 1 dinar = 1 USD, they would be insolvent within a month. Not to mention the obvious problems that these imaginary re-pegged exchange rates would create. Imagine the average Iraq citizen instantly becoming a USD millionaire, and then using these riches to flee the country and live like royalty elsewhere in the region. Or the range of weapons that the insurgents could then acquire with their billions of dinar/USD. Or the fact that individual currency speculators holding in some cases billions of dinar, now magically worth billions of USD, would have a net worth almost equal to Iraq's entire GDP (estimated to be ~94 billion for 2005). Ridiculous.

One should expect a loosening of the constraints of exchange on the dinar over the coming months/years, and one should expect some movement when this happens. One should not expect to suddenly be worth more than the entire country of Iraq.

**END ARTICLE**

-- September 14, 2006 12:05 AM ∞

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Terri wrote:

Good morning guy/gals!

I read on another forum that all roads entering Baghdad, on the 17th & 18th will have roadblocks and that the GoI has advised it's people to expect lengthy delays on those two days...I was half alseep when I read it (but I'm SURE of what it said) -- does anyone know WHY the 17th & 18th -- ?? I'm off to work right now (gotta work, at least until the r/v - LOL)-- I'll check back in a few hours...would sure like to know why the 17th and 18th !

-- September 14, 2006 7:29 AM ∞

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Okie wrote:

Looks like the hydrocarbon law will be passed at the end of the year. Sure wish they would get off their @$$ and get it done quicker.

==========================================================================
International Oil Firms

Shahristani, in Vienna for a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exports Countries, was also briefing international oil companies about the latest developments in his country.

He said Iraq would enter into serious talks with them when parliament passed a new hydrocarbon law to regulate investment. This is expected by year-end.

http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php?refid=DH-S-14-09-2006&article=10486

-- September 14, 2006 9:01 AM ∞

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Rob N. wrote:

All:

Enjoy the following article.

ICB Presenting financial adjustment with available reserve
ICB Presenting financial adjustment with available reserve
13/09/2006
Source: Al-Sabah

The Iraqi Central Bank assured that the country is improving in the field of reforming the financial sector in spite of the continuing violence and enough reserves are available to support the local currency.

Sinan Al-Shibibi, Governor of the Bank, emphasized the possibility of succeeding to maintain a stable financial status in Iraq if the reserves are enough to keep the currency exchange rate stable. He pointed out that the net foreign cash reached 10 billion USD at a rise estimated by 2 billion USD since last January. This matches the set down limit within the program of the International Monetary Fund.

Al-Shibibi said that increasing violence kept the inflation high about 10% over the set down limit of the Bank. Part of this is due to the unexpectedly high security costs. He anticipated that the country would not only maintain economic stability but also achieve more progress after the improvement of security status. Al-Shibibi pointed out that Iraq is on the right track in its financial reforms including: the change of banking system from one depending on cash to another depending on trust as well as improving banks' managements and developing the technology they use to conclude transactions.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- September 14, 2006 10:02 AM ∞

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Steve wrote:

I MISSED YOU GUYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Buy now my great news is common knowledge: Chase bank exchanging dinar.

I was quoted a price of 623.90 per million Dinar. Of course this will flucuate with the daily rates, but the point was that the rate is at the exchange rate. No middleman price increases or anything of that sort. Great news for liquidity eh?

C1Jim,

Your article neglects export factors as a basis for revalue. The curent model is based solely on reserves yes, but that is by design. It holds the currency value stable so that stressors to the market can be better assessed. Once they decide on an RV rate, the export factor looms large.

Where is Roger, or did I just miss his posts. I'll go look again.

Again, glad to be back on board...............

-- September 14, 2006 2:13 PM ∞

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Mattuk wrote:

Hello to every,I've been following this site for about six months now, and read many interesting articles about the dinar, for what its worth I agree with people like lance and steve that the revalve is inevitable, and soon hopefully. I am based here in the UK (and I am english) but having lived in the USA I find it amusing the comments made some of you stateside, especially your views in the past about religion and the meaning of life! Glad this thread is back online and it continues with insightful dialogue and interesting banter.I've been tempered to add my views in the past but so often someone else has beaten me to it. So I've just sat back and watched from a distance, and to be honest the only reason I'm writing this now is because some of you have incouraged more people to participate and I'm glad your all out there.I'm crap at typing so it maybe quite a while until I find the energy to compose more waffle.... Take care and good luck to you all, Matt in the UK

-- September 14, 2006 3:17 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Hi there. New to this forum. So many pieces of the puzzle seem to be falling in place.

-- September 14, 2006 3:19 PM ∞

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paul wrote:

Steve,
Do you have contact number for Chase?

-- September 14, 2006 3:48 PM ∞

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Terri wrote:

All right you guys! I really depend on the combined intelligence on this forum! Has ANYONE found out why the roadblocks on all roads leading into Baghdad on the 17th & 18th...I've been searching all day and can't find out why.

I thought it might be because of Ramadan, but that don't start until 10/24 -- it's much to early for extra security for that.

-- September 14, 2006 5:08 PM ∞

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Okie wrote:

Terri....

The only big event in that time frame is the Iraq donor meeting in the US....which is on the 18th. My contacts in Iraq don't know either...but they're out in the boonies right now.
Anybody know??????

-- September 14, 2006 5:55 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Judge tells Saddam: "You are not a dictator"
By Ibon Villelabeitia
Thu Sep 14, 1:28 PM ET

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The judge in Saddam Hussein's genocide trial said on Thursday he did not think the ousted Iraqi leader was a "dictator," prompting a spokesman for the U.S.-sponsored court to defend its impartiality.

Abdulla al-Amiri made his comments one day after prosecutors demanded his resignation, complaining that he was too soft on Saddam, who had threatened to "crush the heads" of his accusers. They also complained he let Saddam make long speeches in court.

Questioning a Kurdish farmer who testified he had secured a face-to-face audience with Saddam in 1988 and begged him to spare the lives of his wife and seven children, the former president said: "If I'm a dictator, why did you come to see me?"

Amiri, who has compared his approach to the trial as that of a referee seeking "fairness," then addressed Saddam politely, saying: "You are not a dictator. It is the people who surround a man who make him a dictator." He did not elaborate.

Visibly pleased, Saddam uttered a respectful "Thank you" and then regained his seat in the Baghdad courtroom.

Iraqi High Tribunal chief investigator and spokesman Raed Juhi sought during a news conference later to distance the court, set up by U.S. occupying forces, from Amiri's comment.

"The court will continue with its neutrality and its course. The judge is only human," Juhi said.

"At the end, the judge will decide guilty or not guilty based on the evidence. This has no effect on the case."

Saddam and six former commanders face capital charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for their role in the 1988 Anfal campaign prosecutors say left 182,000 Iraqi Kurds dead or missing. Saddam and his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majeed, known as "Chemical Ali," also face genocide charges.

Part of the prosecution case is expected to rest on how far Saddam was directly responsible for the actions of his troops.

Amiri, who is a member of the majority Shi'ite community which along with ethnic Kurds suffered widely under Saddam's Sunni-led rule, was not available for comment after the trial.

FACE TO FACE

Earlier, farmer Abdulla Mohammad Hussain told the court how a furious Saddam shouted "Shut up and get out!" when he pleaded for the release of his family, including a 40-day-old daughter, who were rounded up in their village in northern Kurdistan.

"He told me to approach him and I begged him for their lives," he said, recounting a visit to one of Saddam's palaces in dramatic testimony during the fourth hearing this week of a trial that began last month.

Saddam, who has defended his policies of crushing Kurdish rebels fighting alongside Shi'ite Iran during the final years of the Iraq-Iran war, said he did not remember ever seeing the witness, who described himself as illiterate.

"Do you have a receipt that you saw me? The Presidential Palace always issued receipts to those who came to visit me?" Saddam asked of the alleged incident 18 years ago.

"No. You took the receipt away from me when I saw you," said Hussain, who is in his mid-50s and wore a traditional headdress.

The trial was adjourned until Monday.

The initial phase of the trial has featured a litany of often harrowing testimony from Kurdish survivors. Saddam is also awaiting a verdict in a first, separate, trial for crimes against humanity over the deaths of 148 Shi'ite men.

-- September 14, 2006 6:35 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Iran: 'Occupying forces' must leave Iraq.
POSTED: 10:43 a.m. EDT, September 13, 2006

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has praised the new Iraqi government and said Iran looks forward to the day when U.S. troops leave Iraq, according to an Iranian media report.

"A major portion of Iraq's problems will be solved when the occupying forces leave that country, and that is why we desire and hope that occupiers leave Iraq," Khamenei said, according to a report from Iran's semi-official news agency FARS.

Following talks with visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Wednesday, Khamanei said Iran was happy that an independent and permanent government had been formed in Iraq. "We hope that the day will come when the Iraqi nation reaches its rightful place (among nations) and, after it is free from foreigners, its human and natural resources could be used to serve the Iraqi people," he said. "The Islamic Republic of Iran feels duty bound to provide practical assistant to the Iraqi government and nation."

Al-Maliki said Iraq's major problem is "the question of security," which he blamed on supporters of Saddam Hussein's former Baathist regime as well as Islamic extremists. The Iraqi leader expressed hope that by implementing Tehran-Baghdad agreements reached in the Iranian capital, the two countries' relations will further expand.

Al-Maliki met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday, who described the talks as "very good." Iran and Iraq are linked in large part by common religion -- Shia Islam -- but their relationship is complicated. While many Iranians and Iraqis -- officials as well as citizens -- believe the nations are kindred spirits, there have been tensions between them. They fought a bloody war in the 1980s under Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who brought Iraq's minority Sunni Muslims to power.

The United States, the chief ally and backer of the new Iraqi government, has been a longtime adversary of Iran on many issues, including Iran's nuclear ambitions. American and British officials have claimed that Iran is attempting to fan the flames of insecurity in Iraq, where the government is trying to promote national unity among Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds.

CNN's Mohammed Tawfeeq and Jomana Karadsheh contributed to this report.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/09/13/iraq.iran/index.html

-- September 14, 2006 6:47 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Iraq war 'disaster for Mideast'
Posted: Thursday, September 14, 2006


Baghdad, The UN secretary general has said that most Middle East leaders regard the US-led invasion of Iraq and its aftermath as a disaster for the region.

Kofi Annan, speaking at a briefing following his recent tour of the region, said that the timing of any US withdrawal was now a key issue. He said some leaders wanted the US to stay in Iraq and stabilise it, while others wanted an immediate withdrawal.

The White House said it disagreed with his characterisation of events in Iraq. Spokesman Tony Snow accepted there had been unrest in Iraq but pointed to attempts to establish democracy in Lebanon and in Palestinian areas, and said democracy was also gaining a footing in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Annan was speaking at a news conference at the UN in New York ahead of this year's General Assembly. He also appealed to Iran to work with the international community to solve the dispute over its nuclear programme. Washington accuses Tehran of attempting to build a nuclear bomb. Speaking about his tour of Middle East nations, Annan said: 'Most of the leaders I spoke to felt that the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath have been a real disaster for them...They believe it has destabilised the region.' But he also said many leaders wanted the Americans to stay in Iraq until the security situation improved, arguing that 'having created the problem they cannot walk away'.

He said other leaders, notably in Iran, felt 'the presence of the US is a problem and that the US should leave, and if the US were to decide to leave, they would help them'. Annan concluded: 'So in a way, the US has found itself in a position where it cannot stay and it cannot leave. 'And I believe, if it has to leave, the timing has to be optimum and it has to be arranged in such a way that it does not lead to even greater disruption or violence in the region.'

Turning to Iran, Annan said he detected a slight shift in Tehran's approach and believed the Iranians were more open to suspending their nuclear enrichment activities as part of negotiations. 'We cannot afford another crisis in this region. I appeal to the Iranians to ...lift the cloud of uncertainty surrounding their programme, so hopefully this will be done.'

http://www.tradearabia.com/tanews/newsdetails_snDEF_article111190.html

-- September 14, 2006 7:12 PM ∞

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Nelly B - Investor wrote:

Hi Matt.

Good to see another Brit here. I was starting to get lonely on this side of the pond. Have you bought your ticket yet?

Does anyone have Roger's Email addy? I feel if he does not return to post soon, the board will burst with his posts when he does finally return.

No signs of Lance either? I wonder if he's still wrestling with his hair shirt. Maybe he called in Roger for backup. Show it the shampoo I say.

-- September 14, 2006 7:31 PM ∞

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Tim Bitts wrote:

Commenting on Outlaws Trade Arabia story on the Muslim reaction to the American invasion, I'd say, yes, the American presense in that country is destabilizing to the region. For too long the region has seem stable tyranny, human rights abuses, and millions of other problems. "Stability" in the past lead to terrorism and supporting Muslim dictators abusing their own people, languishing the area in backwardness. Iran wants to make an atom bomb so they can boss other Muslims around, and if they decide to steal Arab oil, they think they can get away with it if they have an atomic bomb. With a thousand billion dollars worth of new oil money, Iran could fund a lot more terrorism. I say nuke em while we have a chance. As a warmongering Canuck, let me say, God bless America.

-- September 14, 2006 7:38 PM ∞

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Steve wrote:

Paul,

Yes I do, but I am pretty sure you'll need to ask to speak with someone who does foreign exchange. This number is for members with accounts: 1-800-935-9935

Website is www.chase.com

-- September 14, 2006 9:39 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Back in business.

Hi everybody, really nice to see you all, I had almost withdrawal symphtoms, when this blog went down.

Well done Kevin, thanks.

Hold on everybody, seems like a lot of things are piling up and the dates are pretty much the same.

Roadblocks the 17th and 18th. The World Bank have their meting in Singapore now the 18th.

Kofi Anan, says that " Wait until next week, the pessimists will be suprised as to what happen"

Donor conferance in the US around the 18th.

It seems to bubble.

I know the Iraqis will be at the World bank meeting (I'm old have CRS, dont remember where I picked that up), and I checked the agenda on the meeting, but it was not mentioned.

Perhaps I missed something, but also, no revalue or devalue of any currency is ever announced in before hand, to protect the currency agains specuation, mass sellouts, or mass buyups, or unlawful trading, so this might very well be it.

According to the agenda, all the World Banks dignitaries will be there, and this is probably the best opportunity to align the Iraq currency plans with the rest of the world.

Please help out in checking whats going on in Singapore.

Carl had the right idea.

I can read into it, and from many sources across the world. People in general is completely sick and tired of the eeeeeeeeeeeeeendless "Iraq Problem"

It's an embarassment for democracy, and finally they are taking this country, and its economy by it's straps and bringing it up passed the fail safe point.

Me , I'm sick of all these politicians declaring this, and declaring that, and if they are blowing smoke in our eyes one more time, I think it's time we start to be a bit loud ourself to them about it.

Nelly B,

I've been on shampoo hunt for that hairy shirt Fred, I tried lice shampoo, I tried shampoo that tingles, and are currently experimenting with acids in a progressively stronger grade, but the hair shirt still shows signs of life. Haven't heard from Lance, but he was going over to the US beating his wife a couple of weeks, so we'll se if he can get hold of a pjuter over here, otherwise he'll probably be back in business upon his return.

Tim Bitts,

If Iran can be held in check, we're all happy, but I have a feeling that anything they say, anything they agree to and any promise thay will give, WILL be broken. Right now, they have volountarily suspended Uranium enrichment. In my eyes they are laughing and are continuing enriching it, commenting "suckers". Either we have to take care of them or Israel will. Israel have never acknowledge their nuclear capability, but are thought to have one of the biggest stockpiles of nuclear warheads, after Russia and USA. They have also two missile systems, buried, and deployed from underground bunkers, both capable of surviving a close nuclear blast. Both missile systems are capable of reaching Iran. Hope it doesnt have to come to this, but thats the reality facing Iran.

Outlaw,

Saddam should have swung from the rope long ago. In wartimes, wartribunals are internationally recognized as a means of trial.

I dont know if you remember the trial of the Rumanian communist dictator Cheuchesko.The country revolted, the cought the man, he had a 45 minutes trial, and then he was shot, it was shown on TV the day after, and that was it.

Hi Steve,

Good, that shows we have at least ONE official bank exchanging Dinars, that will save us from Dinar Dealers tarrifs.

Mattuk,

Welcome to the show, the abuse is instant and the pain and pleasure is free. If your typing sucks, dont worry abou tit bcausue we hvnt learnd english her e yet.

I saw a parking sign in LA that read, "Heads In First".
Not even a verb in it. Doesnt really mean anything in English.

Another sign on the Oklahoma Pike. "Failure to pay toll, strictly enforced".

C1Jim,

That article by David Sotnik,I read it, and I must say that he have read all the Dinar sales arguments, from all the Dinar dealers, opposed them all, and with that ground, think the Dinar will stay in the dark for a very long time. Seems like a guy that have done a two week research on his spare time, I'm pretty sure most of us on this board have far more knowledge than that.

-- September 14, 2006 10:13 PM ∞

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Paul wrote:

Steve,
Thanks for the info. I am finding it more and more difficult to discover bargains on Ebay. So far my average buy-in is $730.00 per million. I am now at 12 million. Good Luck!

-- September 14, 2006 10:26 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Nelly B,

If this is it, and we're doing really good, we're having a potroast in Florida Keys, get drunk BEFORE you get on the plane, because you can't bring the bubbly. No more liquids. Well not that it matters too much because you're going first class anyway, and get served that stuff for free.

I will have to warn you about the cultural chock though, over here we have absolutely no manners. We cruise in the passing lane, and use our finger(s) for communication.

No one have the slightest idea how to behave in a line.Everybody is special and have to cut in and say his piece to the clerk.

When we say, "come and see me sometime" and you really show up at their door, we will be chocked.

The distinction between distilled water and american coffee, is still in debate.

Any coffee bread you order, will come with a half inch of sugarcoating, and sometimes you get an extra cup of frosting(american name for sugar on bread) if you think it was too little.

We eat a 6000 calorie meals, but are very strict about getting a "diet" soda to the meal. We have not really learned to count calories yet.

We have a cop in every corner, demanding that you spread eagle, and keep your hands where they can se them. Any traffic stop will include a search and a back up car, and ofcourse a ticket. No one objects to searches, we happily go along with them, and the law enforcement is our heroes.

Dont worry about the ticket, if you get one that gives you a movingviolation(points on your drivers licence) you can easily go to a lawyer and have it swapped to a higher bail, but no moving violation. You dont need to go to court to do this, the lawyer and the DA is buddies on the golfclub, and thats where the deal is made.

We don't respectfully face you and speak with a normal voice, we address you across the room screaming, -"Hey you".

We have guns, I love mine, but the road signs are pretty peppered with bulletholes in some places.

Signs saying "Beer, Ammo, Bait", exists here and are true.

We sell everything, and will remind you about all the wonderful products you cant live without wherever you turn your head.

We dont have quality but we have DEALS, it doesnt matter if you buy a substandard product as long as you got a good deal.

Everything that is FREE, have a hook. But it doesn't matter, we go for it every time.

We're the center of the universe, and as we're the only one playing baseball, (you know the thing where nothing happens for twenty minutes, except a lot of hot dog sales, crouch scratching, tobacco chewing, sign language, and bat tapping on the base.)we have named it the World Series.

Soccer is gay.

We suffer a little bit from bad education, show us a map of the world and ask us to point out Brittain, and you will see an unsure finger choosing between Zimbabwe, and Guam.

Switzerland and Sweden is the same country. (got to be, they sound similar)

Our education is based on the entertainment industry, any one of us can quote who played in what movie.

You must also understand our devoted and deep loyalty, to our beloved country, its workforce, its system, and it's principles, so dont be suprised to see a lot of american flags painted on everything, like Nissan pickup trucks or BMW's.

If there is a crisis, we display our solidarity by flying a flag on the car, it's a thing you squeese in to the window by closing it around a heel formed to fit. It lasts about two weeks, because the plastic arm will break in about that time, and as we really have already showed our solidarity , we really dont need to buy another one. So our time frame of displaying our solidarity is based on the longevity of a plastic device.

Our social standing is based on a gradient scale, of how much we love to be in debt. We assign much status to it, and call it "our credit rating".

We are completely convinced that all women born with hair on their bodies, older men without hair, and any teeth that is not sparkling white, is a sickness, and must be cured.

We have a spray for everything.

So Nelly B, welcome to the pot roast. Once you have got a taste of the insanity over here, you know your going to be hooked, and from then on nothing will ever be the same.

-- September 14, 2006 11:38 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Iraq is in a very very unique situation.

Iraq have 85% of their export in oil. Meaning, the rest of their export is less significant. As oilproduction increases, the rest of their export will be even more marginalized.

When you have undervalued currency , like Iraq have right now, their currency will buy squat in any other foreign country.

That will produce a scarcity of goods.

That means, the merchant can ask whatever they want for the goods.

That means there will be a galloping inflation, just like we have in Iraq.

The upside with an undervalued currency, is that the export will be very cheap in any other country and will promote the internal industry.

However, Iraq have the MAJORITY , 85%, of the export in oil, the oil is not sold in Dinars, it's sold in Dollars.

So the agricultural or industrial export other than oil, that will benefit from an undervalued currency is very minimal, and have to this date not showed any bigger difference in the Iraq economy.

So if you OVERVALUE the currency, the Dinar will suddenly buy a lot of things for the Iraqi man, stores will be filled, and competition will be sharpened. No scarcity of stuff.

The downside is that the export (the one not fixed to oil, the 15%) will suffer, because the goods will now be more expensive for the foreign market to buy.

Now, here is a conclution.

Iraq CAN overvalue it's currency, because their export is minimal, very little in the whole picture will get hurt.

Dont be suprised, it might be a huge revaluation.

With Iraq's special situation, I dont think they give a hoots if their export of Hooka pipes or Used Camels, will be suffering.

-- September 15, 2006 12:08 AM ∞

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Seeker wrote:

Hey Ya'll

Glad glad to see ya back. Short acouple missed faces, and the addition of acouple of new ones, the world is starting to spin true on it;s axis again.

Steve
Do you know wich Chase branch you spoke to. The quote it got from the one in Phoenix was 763.00 per mil?

-- September 15, 2006 2:40 AM ∞

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Roger wrote:

763 / mil sounds like a selling price,
623.90 / mil sounds very much like the banks buying price

-- September 15, 2006 3:47 AM ∞

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FRED wrote:

Seeker,
This is Fred, the hairy shirt, do you mind if I get in contact with your socks.

-- September 15, 2006 3:49 AM ∞

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Okie wrote:

I surely believe my next step will be to transfer my Warka Bank, Baghdad account, to their Branch in Kurdistan. At least I could go there and fondle my Dinars whenever I wanted to.

============================================================================
As for the daylight kidnappings, horrific car bombings, drive-by assassinations and economic misery blighting the rest of Iraq, Farok is blunt.

"I don't care," he says. "The Arabs never cried for us when we were suffering. I'm going to a teahouse with my friend to have some fun."

While much of Iraq remains engulfed in various layers of insurgent, sectarian, political and tribal violence, the Switzerland-sized Kurdish autonomous region in the north of the country, established after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, remains an oasis of safety and tranquillity where young and old concern themselves with mundane matters of life like work, dating and home furnishings.

Even as Iraqis of means take their money and skills and abandon cities like Baghdad, Basra and Mosul, the Kurdish enclave has been thriving.

A massive real estate boom has transformed major cities like Sulaymaniyah and Irbil into noisy construction zones. The once desolate ring road around Sulaymaniyah, for example, is being filled up from scratch with apartment towers and commercial buildings on a scale seen only in the oil-rich Persian Gulf kingdoms.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=16&art_id=27298&sid=9833020&con_type=1&d_str=20060915

-- September 15, 2006 8:28 AM ∞

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Steve wrote:

Roger wrote:

"We eat a 6000 calorie meals, but are very strict about getting a "diet" soda to the meal. We have not really learned to count calories yet."

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of all of my medical experiences, this has to take the cake. Nearly everyone with heart disease that comes through says the following: "Yes, I eat fried foods 3 times a week. But I always make sure to get a diet soda with every meal........"

Sigh.........

Paul,

You're welcome. I personally have been using SafeDinar and getting decent rates till now (although not anywhere near what you've been getting....). Make sure to check those notes for authenticity...........

Needless to say, I am making the switch to Chase.
I used to be concerned about liquidity so I went with smaller denominations incase a big RV occured. With this in place, I'll be buying 25k notes exclusively.

Roger and Seeker,

I'm in San Antonio. It was the branch on Culebra Road. I don't know the exact address off the top of my head. You might be correct Roger. The teller did say they just started it and it appeared that she might not have known that there was a difference in asking price and selling. She DID confirm that the exchanges were taking place both ways, but the price she quoted me may well have been a buyback price.......

I must apologize if this is the case. I will look into it this weekend.

HairyShirt (Fred),

Tell Lance that I have some detergent and a washing machine for sale.

Something tells me he won't get that message though................

-- September 15, 2006 10:28 AM ∞

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Bill1 wrote:

Been reading some of the recent posts speaking to the current conditions in Iraq, etc. There's a very good one at the top of the page by a Roger Isaksson, submitted by one of the regular posters here at the T&B, one which I believe hits the nail on the head when it comes to defining the stalemate in Iraq. He talks about the much needed [immediate] revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar to help catapult the country out of this quagmire of insurgent warfare, and I couldn't agree with him more.

Think of it ...even a modest revaluation at this point would indicate, more so than any other type of metric, that success really is taking place in Iraq despite the bombings and other terrorist activities. I would even go so far as to say it would just about demoralize the insurgency, by demonstrating to them that, "despite their best efforts at creating turmoil, hate, and disconent within the country, that Iraq is indeed rising from the ashes to become a democratic shining star in the Middle East.". It would also motivate and embolden Iraqis accross the board, and breath a much needed new life into their efforts to stabilize the country and jump start their economy. Remember, it wasn't that long ago when we were reading about how they were beginning to band together in their neighborhoods, to the point that they were openly cooperating with authorities (US and Iraqi) to help identify and turn-in known terrorist working for Iran's insurgency.

I loved reading those positive articles, and at that time really thought progress was being made and it wouldn't be long before Iraq was on her feet. But, it all lasted about five minutes, because rather than really sieze the initiative by assisting them as much as we could, somehow we allowed it to fizzle and once again the insurgents became proactive and we "reactive" to their schemes and operations. Seeing this take place, I'm certain, caused the everyday Iraqi to think more so in hopeless terms rather than positive ones, ultimately weakening their resolve, which was exactly the outcome the insurgency had hoped for.

We would all love a revaluation as NID holders/speculators for obvious reasons, but a positive revaluation of the dinar would be a HUGE slap in the face of the insurgency, and would work wonders in moving the country toward a higher level of stability. If we're really serious about claiming success in Iraq; if were really serious about ending this war sooner -- rather than later; and if we're really serious about getting our forces out of Iraq and putting a stop to throwing astronomical amounts of U.S. taxpayer dollars at restructure efforts; then its time for us to, "crap, or get off the pot.". Better than guns, bullets, bombs, bloodshed, and the like; we can deal the insurgents a harsh blow through economic manipulation. What better way to create a win/win situation for all concerned?... [JMO]

Good luck to all,

Bill1

-- September 15, 2006 3:58 PM ∞

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FRED wrote:

Bill 1,

Thanks. I do believe there are things happening. But I agree, it's far far to slow in the action department. It seems that any and all issue have to go one round or two through the UN. Documetns have sticky tape on them, and anyone that has to be briefed on the situation in Iraq, have to have a squirt of WD-40 sprayed into their ears to make the think machine run without squeking.

One might think that it is so obvious that the Iraq currency is hopelessly undervalued, graphs show a straight line on the Dinar value, while the consumer price index look like the vapor trails after a rocket going straight up.

As you say, we will benefit and be happy when a reval will happen, but set aside our own greed, or just cold unattached comments on graphs, the reality is, the Iraqis are suffering , and are suffering bad right now.

What gets me is the long inactivity on it, when the fix is comparably simple.

However, there is a lot of activity going to happen around the 17th-18th, here in a couple of days, and I'm watching with big ears, big eyes, like the wolf dressed up as the Red Riding Hood's grandma.

-- September 15, 2006 4:37 PM ∞

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Laura Parker wrote:

Hi All,

It's great to see everyone is still hanging on to relationships on this board. At my last posting, Lance wrote about George Soros and I couldn't agree more. For posts on these entries, look to last blog. However, I was speaking about General Georges Sada, a retired Iraqi Air Force Pilot and an Assyrian Christian. This man was responsible for taking care of our downed pilots during the 2003 war with Iraq. At one point, Quay wanted to kill all the pilots and this general quoted the Geneva Convention. As a result of his deviance, Saddam had the General jailed the next day. He was eventually let go and forced into retirement because of his lack of party afflication. He received training in Russia, France, Italy, Britain, and USA. He was only pilot with training in all these countries. He states in his book, Sadaam's Secrets, that Iraq had WMD's up through summer 2002. At that time, Sadaam had the weapons taken down by Russian Weapons Specialist and taken by truck and commercial air planes that had been gutted to Syria. Wonderful news, isn't it?.

Well gang, I think I too feel like Carl on the corruption issue in Iraq.

American's can't keep pouring dollars down the drain with no results. With what I am reading about the Iraq people, they are living in conditions of insecurity that we ourselves would never premit.

Whatever the sources of insurrection, we are going to have to stop kidding ourselves. We will need to commit more troops or get out!.

Our USA/British soldiers are not winning the hearts of the Iraqi people due to conditions the people are living under. We do not seem to have the will to win the peace. At least, that is what I am reading. No Results! If we are going to stay, we need to win the hearts of ordinary Iraqi's and get them involved in their country. Corruption, crime and security issues have to disappear.

Laura

-- September 15, 2006 4:39 PM ∞

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Mike wrote:

Are any of the Kurdish companies in the oasis of Kurdistan traded on the ISX?

-- September 15, 2006 5:20 PM ∞

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Dinar Phil wrote:

When will some people learn? Don't stir the pot until its time. Thank you mister pope guy for the ' comments ' about holy war today. This guy isn't a Rhodes scholar is he?

-- September 15, 2006 5:25 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Sorry,
I'm not Fred, except when in hairy drag.

-- September 15, 2006 6:00 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Is anyone hearing of a r/v at .98 euro on Sunday? Seen this on some other sites today. Not trying to start a rumor, but would like to know if anyone with boots on the ground has heard anything.

Thanks
Terry

-- September 15, 2006 7:19 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Roger,

Not only did they shoot him but they did the same to his ol' lady too!

hehe!

Outlaw

-- September 15, 2006 7:30 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Terry... Can you please post a link to this information?

Thanks,
Outlaw

-- September 15, 2006 7:33 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Outlaw,

Yes, she had too many shoes, shelfs after shelfs of them. Funny, Marcos widow had shelf after shalf of shoes also, but they didn't shoot her.

I say, if women have too many shoes, they have to get shot.

Terry,

This is my prediction. Oakland Oilers will win, New York Broncos, second, and Philladephia Packers third.

-- September 15, 2006 7:41 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Here is what I can get Outlaw. Seems to be some bickering since I read.

http://www.investorsiraq.com/226262-post278.html

http://www.investorsiraq.com/226005-post152.html

http://www.investorsiraq.com/226017-post161.html

I don't know what to make of it so I am asking the more informed on this site.
Thanks
Terry

-- September 15, 2006 7:55 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Laura,

Absolutely , the voice is more and more, "-Hey, show me the results".

Iraq is suppose to be a showpiece for democracy, but have turned into a joke.

Who wants to invest in a car parts plant over there.

Who wants to stroll in Baghdad, going to their Bazars and cafe's, on their vacation?

Only possibility , luckily, is the Big Oil, knowing they are going to be out in the desert with their operation.

I'm all ears now when this supposedly new program , or debt relief, or additional loans, or revaluation or whatever is supoosed to happen here very shortly. I hope they have a program that will really change things, not just Kofi Annan declaring another future hope, or something.

Laura, tell me something, I'm curious about Iran and the nuclear thing, your husband had some in, on the ammount and degree of enrichment. Can you stroke him gently in a way only a wife can do, and pump him on info about if he knows anything more about the enrichment.

Perhaps you can even get him to post something on this site about it.

-- September 15, 2006 8:03 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

SARA,

I LOVE YOU, you are not forgotten, you are part of our souls here.

Come back, have fun and laugh.

No time for right and wrong.

Dont regret yesterday, life is in you now, and we are looking for the future.

HUUUUUUUUUUUGGG

-- September 15, 2006 8:18 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Terry,

I as everyone would love to see a .98 EURO/Dinar but I agree with C1Jim's assement of the situtation in Iraq and a RV that high would drive Iraq into bankruptcy.

Everyone who has gone through the Baghdad International Airport... Remember the sign at Immigration... No more than 100,000 Dinar or $10,000 USD cn come into or out of Iraq without declaring to Customs. That would equal a ten cent RV. To me that sound more reasonable for an opening RV... and why would they post that at the Airport if they themselves didn't have that figure in mind?

Comments anyone???

Outlaw

-- September 15, 2006 9:01 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Thanks Outlaw.
Terry

-- September 15, 2006 9:08 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Just as a side note the 10k USD limit is a US Customs Reg. Even if you go to Canada you would have to claim that. the 100K IDR seems a little low compared. Has anyone ever iquired about that?
Thanks
Terry

-- September 15, 2006 9:17 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Checked the currency converter index.

1.27 Dollars = 1 Euro.

A Dinar at .98 Euro will be in Dollar, 1.24.

A Dinar revalued to 1.24 Dollar, sounds way way too high.

Then again, what will be hurt if you overvalue a currency is their export, thier only export of any substance is oil, and that one is in Dollars anyway, the rest of Iraqis export, that is depending on their Dinar is very small, so nothing significant will be hurt.

They CAN overvalue and get away with it.

I'm not against it, I'll take the money and run, and would do a dance inbetween there also, but in truth, seems a bit optimistic to me.

It will be very exciting to see after this weekend what (and if) they are coming up with.

-- September 15, 2006 9:29 PM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Terry,

That sign was very visible to all as you enter the Airport after landing. The last time I was in the Airport was this past Jan. and it was still posted then. I am sure that others who have passed through there more recent can verify if it is still on the wallor not...

As far as 100k IQD -VS- $10k??? Your guess would be as good as mine but as I said... That would mean a .10 USD/1 IQD RV.

Outlaw

-- September 15, 2006 9:30 PM ∞

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Terry wrote:

Outlaw, good point.
Thanks
Terry

-- September 15, 2006 10:06 PM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Hmmm....well, lets say they do revalue to 1.24 dollars.

All they have to do is just to change the sign at the airport.

100 K in Dinars is about 64 bucks.(in todays value)

I just think that the limit of bringing out 64 bucks will be changed if they are about to do an overhaul on their currency.

Also the US restriction of bringing out more than $10K , is a US mandate based on our own economy.

I have a hard time seing that the artificially set US limit compared with the artificially set Iraq limit to bring out currencies would have any relevance to how much or little they will RV the Dinar(if they are RVing, that is).

I agree that a reval to between 1 and 15 cents is most real, but hey, they might go wild, they have no significant export in goods traded in Dinars, so as I say,
they CAN overvalue and get away with it.

-- September 15, 2006 11:17 PM ∞

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Laura Parker wrote:

Roger,

Read your post and the answer is not good to your question on Iran. IAEA in 2003 found highly enriched uranium on a site that Iran supposely moved a lab site.

IAEA did not disclose how enriched in a News Week article that I have previously cited on this blog. Further, I am sure President Bush knows.

However, anything over 3 to 4 percent enrichment is for bomb making. My husband had previously spoken about this to me.

I had been reading about Sadaam's wmd's and one intelligence source stated that the State Dept. believed that the missiles were removed from Syria and went to Iran. These of course are all Russian made.

I think we are going to have a war with Iran. I hope I am wrong. However, I don't see President Bush simply walking away with over 300 billion dollars invested in Iraq.

Most of the articles I have read from most ordinary Iraqi's--are people who believe that the various factions are controlled by influences from Iran.

These are precious people caught inbetween with lack of security and not a big heart for America as conditions have gotten worse instead of better. However, even they state you cannot trust the ordinary Iraqi due to where their own alliance is. The sad reality is the only source of trust is in the USA military and it seems to the ordinary Iraqi, the military seems complacant (to allow the conditions to continue). Iran has infiltrated the Iraq country in influence and their own people.

This is rather depressing--if you are an ordinary American and after over 300 billion spent. America needs to start getting results.

-- September 16, 2006 12:54 AM ∞

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George wrote:

Fred

This is George, Seeker's feet. I'd live to introduce you to my socks. I'm sure they would love the companionship as they get very lonely. Their ONLY friends are his shoes.
You see they are very shy. Everybody else shuns them with horror where ever they go. They curl there noses, make terrible faces and loud noises of discontent when ever they enter a room.
The only time they feel save is when they are in his shoes.
Mabe with you they could get out and relax a bit. Stretch out, just be themselves.
I must warn you though. I hope your intentions are honorable. Even though they relize it, I like them alot, and I am very protective of them. I rely on them a great deal and thier always there for me.
George

-- September 16, 2006 2:05 AM ∞

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FRED wrote:

My intentions are honorable and I promise to bring back your socks by 10 o clock, unhurt.

-- September 16, 2006 2:23 AM ∞

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Roger wrote:

Laura,

Iran, yes I can't see a soluton to it. I doubt a nuclear standoff, like the cold war is even in Irans interest.

The Iran regine go to go in the interest of mankind, and especially for the region as a whole.

It screws up so much in Iraq, as they are completely infiltrated, orchestrating all the internal fighting in Iraq, and then show a face as a mediator, trying to look like saviors for the mess they have created in the first place.

Problem is, the more you tighten a grip on a country, the more the people will come together in that country.

If there will be a war, perhaps it's better to have it done quickly and efficiently. Have it done and over with.

There will be only two participants, USA and Israel, either one of them will do it, maybe the Brits may be in , but I can assure you that the rest of the world will be on lookers commenting the ballgame, and condeming it ofcourse.

In their hearts they will be very glad that we were the ones doing thir dirty work for them again.

-- September 16, 2006 2:39 AM ∞

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Laura Parker wrote:

Roger,

I know you are right about what kind of allies we will have with a war on Iran.

The problem is, the other countries like Russia, France, Italy and I have read that German companies have been supplying arms to Iran, Syria for profit.

It makes me sick that they will get rich on the arms deals--and leave good old USA and Israel to pick up the pieces.

Mr. Putin was niece enough to tell Israel, he would sell Syria missiles that Israel could shoot down.

Iran wants to be the new world power in the oil rich gulf i.e., like the USA. If we back down, they will come after us.

I hate to be speaking about blood and guts like this; as our soldiers will be the ones to pay--while the world sits on the sidelines.

On other news, my husband came home and told me that the IAEA has invited him to Europe to speak in the country of Hungry at end of November beginning part of December. Apparently, they have a nuclear power plant.

He stated, he is not sure he can go as the company he works for is in the middle of an outage. His boss is sleeping on the decision of whether he will let him go on company time.

We at one time went to Mexico on an IAEA conference. My husband with another expect from Finland gave a conference on Nuclear Equipment Qualification.

Apparently, he must have made a good impression on the IAEA sponsor. It's good to be recognized for one's expertise.

Whatever happened to Lance?

-- September 16, 2006 3:53 AM ∞

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Outlaw wrote:

Iraqi PM promotes reconciliation plan.

By SAMEER N. YACOUB, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 22 minutes ago

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki urged Iraqis Saturday to cast aside their sectarian, ethnic and political differences and embrace his national reconciliation plan.

The appeal came as Iraqi security forces announced they will dig trenches around Baghdad in an attempt to prevent insurgents and explosive-laden cars from getting into the sprawling city of 6 million. The U.S. military confirmed Saturday that there was a plan in progress to create a "security belt" around the capital.

"There is a plan in progress for a security belt around Baghdad that includes trenches and other obstacles for channeling exit from and entry to the city th