Dinar Discussion JUNE 2008

By DinarAdmin

This is the Dinar Discussion for June 2008.

Comments


Sara wrote:

US deaths in Iraq hit all-time low
Article from: Agence France-Presse
From correspondents in Baghdad
June 02, 2008 05:39am

US forces recorded their lowest monthly death toll in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, officials said today as Baghdad also reported a big drop in Iraqi deaths.

Nineteen American soldiers were killed in May, the lowest death toll since the US-led invasion, the US military said as the government reported an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of Iraqi fatalities.

Visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner commented on the "improving security" situation in Iraq and said he was pleased that local military and civilian authorities were taking charge of their own affairs.

The US military said last week that the overall level of violence across the country had hit a four-year low.

"The efforts of the Iraqi security forces and coalition forces are bringing stability to Iraq," the Office of the Secretary of Defence, a US military spokesman said.

On Thursday, the US military announced the withdrawal of another 4000 of the extra troops who were deployed to Iraq last year after reporting a sharp decline in the levels of violence.

It said the latest drawdown would be completed by June. It is the fourth brigade to withdraw from Iraq out of five that deployed under the surge in US troop numbers that was ordered in February 2007.

Washington has said it wants to complete the withdrawal of the 30,000 surge troops by July and have a 45-day evaluation period before considering overall force levels.

There had been a decline in attacks in the south of Iraq after heavy fighting in Basra in March when security forces clashed with Shiite militiamen.

The number of insurgents or militiamen said to have been killed by security forces also showed a marked drop, totalling 170 in May as against 355 in April.

According to figures made available by security officials, the number of Iraqis wounded in May was less than half the April figure at 1003 compared with 2008.

Seven weeks of street fighting in the Baghdad Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City died down by May 14 when a truce between the Mahdi Army militia of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and government forces came into effect.

However, Iraqi soldiers announced a new offensive against insurgents in the main northern city of Mosul, which is considered by US commanders to be Al-Qaeda's last urban bastion in Iraq.

The US military has warned that although al-Qaeda is on the run, the group still has the ability to stage spectacular bomb attacks against security forces and civilians in Iraq.

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23795259-5012771,00.html

-- June 1, 2008 8:27 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq oil output, exports hit post-war high
Sun Jun 1, 2008 9:02pm BST
By Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq has raised oil exports to a post-war high, earning billions of dollars to fund reconstruction after Baghdad cracked down on sabotage of its strategic pipelines, the oil minister said on Sunday.

In an interview with Reuters, Hussein al-Shahristani said he expects oil revenue to reach $70 billion this year if crude prices stay high and output flows remain stable.

"In May, we have exceeded for the first time 2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) as an export rate," Shahristani said.

"This is mainly because of the improved security along northern pipelines from Kirkuk (oilfields) to the Turkish border and also from increased production from our southern and northern fields."

Iraqi oilfields are pumping more than 2.5 million bpd, he said, the highest since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Iraq will produce up to 2.9 million bpd by the end of 2008, he said.

He was optimistic Iraqi forces would keep security tight at oil facilities and raise the confidence of foreign investors discouraged by sectarian violence, al Qaeda and Shi'ite militants who had a grip on Basra, home to Iraq's biggest oilfields.

"We are going to make steady progress on security and the reconstruction front," he said.

Sky-high oil prices have raised the prospects of a quicker recovery. Oil is still within sight of a record $135 a barrel hit last month, supported by concern supplies will struggle to match demand in the longer term and a weak U.S. dollar.

Strong prices could also improve Iraq's chances of meeting goals set out in a 10-year plan to raise production and exports.

The U.S. military says violence in Iraq is at a four-year low following crackdowns by U.S. and Iraqi forces on Shi'ite militias in southern Basra and Baghdad and on al Qaeda in the northern city of Mosul, its last major urban stronghold.

"Iraq has improved the overall security situation in the country through its military operations in the south against the militias and in Mosul area against al Qaeda and in Baghdad itself," said Shahristani.

"I believe the improvement in the security is real and is going to last. Al Qaeda has basically been defeated in Iraq."

FOREIGN INVESTMENT

Starved of access to oil and gas prospects by governments who increasingly favor development by their state oil companies, Western oil companies are eager to invest in Iraq, home to the world's third biggest oil reserves.

But Baghdad expects to see activity this summer.

Major oil companies have all turned in their proposals for oil service deals and some will be signed this month.

Iraq is negotiating six short-term service contracts with international oil companies, each aimed at boosting production by 100,000 barrels per day.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc05/idUKL014524920080601

-- June 1, 2008 8:38 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

How I got interested, in the Iraqi Dinar:

I thought I'd share with the board, my own story, of how I got interested in the Iraq Dinar.

I was living in Vancouver, British Columbia, during the first half of the 1990s. I had an interesting hobby, at the time, collecting stories about what I like to call "human oddities"

I have a collection of many thousands of odd and unusual stories, culled from newspapers around the world. I collected them, over a ten year period.

Whether it's a story about how scientists took the gene that causes fireflies to glow in the dark, and put it into tobacco plants, and produced tobacco plants that glow in the dark, or a story about a baby moose adopting a horse as it's surrogate mother, or a story about a man who couldn't pay his hotel bill for a 10 week stay, and left his mother behind as collateral, or several hundred other categories, I'm likely to have it in my collection. In other words, I've always been fascinated by Ripley's Believe it or Not type of stuff.

So, anyway, I was sitting in a coffee shop, in Vancouver, in the early 1990s, reading the newpaper, having a coffee at a Tim Hortons Coffee Shop, which incidently sells Tim Bitts, which are tasty sugary little donuts.

And I spot a story about a guy who bought the Kuwaiiti Dinar, when it was nearly worthless, after Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwaiit. Now, I'm quoting from memory, so my figures are not exact, only roughly accurate, but he bought something like 20 thousand American dollars worth of the Dinars, and cashed them in, a few years later, when the economy got back on line, in Kuwaiit, for something like 3 million. Smart move.

I always remembered that story. It stuck in my mind, like glue. And then, when Saddam was getting kicked out, again, and the Iraqi Dinar, this time, was nearly worthless, I made my move, and now have a tidy pile of millions of Dinars, sitting in a safety deposit box, in a bank vault.

Will it happen again? I think so. It's a little more complicated this time, and is taking a bit longer, but I think it will happen again.

And that, fellow board members, is how I ended up, pecking away, occasionally, at my keyboard, on this site.

-- June 1, 2008 8:44 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Very interesting story. We can all probably rememeber where, when and how we first came in contact with the infamous Dinar.
I had just been introduced to my daughters multi-millionaire Real Estate friend. While talking about a RE transaction we were in the middle of, he made a slight mention of the Kwait currency and how he "missed the boat" on that one, but was certainly going to catch the Dinar issue. In the weeks that followed my daughters and their families and friends got Dinar fever.
I was the last to jump on board, and the biggest attraction for me was #1- I hated being out of the loop with my family, since Dinars were all they could talk about, #2 I have 2 daughters whom are divorced and struggle financially, as well as a few very good friends that are very poor and I thought that for very little money, I could maybe provide them with an opporotunity for wealth. So I bought several thousand Dinars for my husband and I and equal amount to be divided by the 5 people who couldn't. And you know the rest!

Soooooo, while I am a very big skeptic with the whole thing, I surely still hold out for a good results.

Thanks for sharing.

Carole

-- June 2, 2008 4:04 AM


mattuk wrote:

Maliki to raise Iran's role in Iraq in Tehran talks

Mon Jun 2, 2008 11:58am BST

By Wisam Mohammed

BAGHDAD, June 2 (Reuters) - Iraq wants to discuss evidence of Iranian intervention in Iraq and the two countries' overall relationship during a visit to Tehran this week by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a government spokesman said on Monday.

It will be Maliki's second visit to Tehran after he travelled to Iran in August last year and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a visit to Baghdad in March.

Government officials would not confirm the date of the visit, but local media in Iraq and Iran said it would be on Saturday.

Maliki's government treads a fine line in its relations with Iran, accused by the United States of supporting Shi'ite militias in Iraq while at the same time seeking support from its neighbour.

"Part of the talks will discuss the subject of the evidence of Iranian intervention in Iraq. We will also talk about the entire relationship with Iran," government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told Reuters. "All the issues will be on the table."

Dabbagh would not say which ministers would travel with Maliki but described it as "a political/security delegation".

Iraq's Addustour newspaper said Maliki would be accompanied by Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, Electricity Minister Karim Waheed and Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari.

The report said Maliki would ask for Iranian help with electricity, which is in short supply in Iraq.

Ties between Iran and Iraq have improved since Sunni Arab strongman Saddam Hussein, who led Iraq into an eight-year war against Iran in the 1980s, was ousted in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion and a Shi'ite-led government came to power in Baghdad.

But relations are dogged by repeated accusations from Washington and Baghdad that Tehran is fomenting violence in Iraq by backing Shi'ite militias. Tehran denies meddling in Iraq and blames the violence on the presence of U.S. forces.

Dabbagh said last month Maliki had ordered the formation of a committee to compile evidence of Iranian "interference" in Iraq that would then be presented to Tehran. It is not clear if that evidence will be handed over this week.

A delegation from Iraq's ruling Shi'ite alliance went to Tehran at the start of May to show Iranian officials evidence of the Islamic Republic's backing for Shi'ite militias in Iraq.

Washington accuses Iran of funding, arming and training Shi'ite militias to attack U.S.-led troops and Iraqi government forces, despite its public commitment to stabilising Iraq.

Dabbagh said last month that Iranian missiles had been found in the southern city of Basra during a recent crackdown by government forces on militias there.

The Iraqis have repeatedly said they do not want their territory to become a battleground for a proxy war between the United States and Iran, which are also at loggerheads over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, told a conference on Iraq in Sweden last week that Tehran was keen to play a major role in rebuilding Iraq and lambasted the United States and its allies for "mistaken policies" in its neighbour. (Writing by Adrian Croft; Editing by Sami Aboudi)


-- June 2, 2008 8:16 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Ministry of Electricity to sign contracts with Siemens and Hitachi for generators

The Ministry of Electricity has announced that it is currently in the process of negotiating multi-million dollar contracts with engineering giants Siemens and Hitachi for electricity generating units to boost output across the national grid.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 2, 2008 9:24 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

4 Iranian training camps exist on Iraqi soil, says MP 02/06/2008 14:50:00

Baghdad (NINA)- MP Muhammad al-Dayni from the Arab Bloc of National Dialogue -19 seats- announced that there are four Iranian camps in Iraq for training Iraqi militiamen.
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 2, 2008 9:26 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

French FM optimistic vis-a-vis Iraq''s future

Politics 6/2/2008 11:28:00 AM


French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner
IRBIL, June 2 (KUNA) -- Visiting French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Monday expressed optimism about Iraq's future as he opened a diplomatic mission office in Iraq's Kurdistan.
Kouchner said in a joint statement with the Governor of the northern Iraqi semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, Massoud Barazani, that Iraq "is heading toward a brighter future." The French minister said he was pleased with the Kurds' warmth welcome, and that he conveyed to the local leaders French President Nicolas Sarkozy's greetings, while Barazani said that "major positive changes have altered the French policy" toward his country.
Kouchner said the Iraqi constitutional article No. 140 must be applied, that the United Nations (UN) would submit its proposals in this regard and that "this issue should not exaggerated." On his part, Barazani said Kouchner's visit to Kurdistan was of special importance with regard of establishing distinguished bilateral relations at all levels.
Barazani said he and his French guest discussed the situation in Kirkuk, adding that he had shown noticeable flexibility and cooperative stance toward the UN to solve the dilemma.
Kouchner opened the diplomatic office in Irbil, to be France's first representative bureau in Kurdistan, noting that Paris would spare no effort to strengthen the political, economic, cultural and diplomatic relations with Kurdistan.
Kouchner said he would encourage French investors to establish businesses in that region.
Prime Minister of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Nejervan Barazani welcomed the French gesture, inviting the European countries to stretch their hand to reconstruct Kurdistan.
The opening ceremony was attended by Kurdistan Regional Assembly Speaker Adnan al-Mufti and the Iraqi Foreign Ministry Undersecretary, Abdulkarim Hashim.(end) sbr.sab KUNA 021128 Jun 08NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 2, 2008 9:27 AM


Sara wrote:

Milestones in Iraq: Fewer Troop Deaths, More Oil
12:16 pm, 02 Jun 2008

U.S. troop deaths in Iraq hit an all-time low last month as oil production hit a post-war high, officials said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, along with Iraq's oil minister, credited better overall security for the two milestones.

"We've still got a distance to go but I think lower casualty rates are a reflection of some real progress," Gates told reporters in Singapore.

In an interview with Reuters, meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said improved security help Iraq - with the world's third-largest oil reserves - boost production to 2.5 million barrels per day.

http://www.newswire.co.nz/main/viewstory.aspx?storyid=420156&catid=16

-- June 2, 2008 10:10 AM


Sara wrote:

France expresses renewed commitment in Iraq
02/06/2008
French foreign minister arrived in Iraq on Saturday on an unannounced visit to underline renewed political commitment in the war-ravaged nation.

BAGHDAD - French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner arrived in Iraq on Saturday on an unannounced visit to underline the "renewed political commitment of France" to the war-ravaged nation, diplomats said.

Kouchner arrived in Nasiriyah in southern Iraq at the start of a two-day trip during which he held talks with Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi and later travelled to the capital Baghdad, diplomats said.

He arrived in Baghdad later Saturday and opened talks with President Jalal Talabani, who had invited him to Iraq.

"This visit reflects the renewed political commitment of France with regard to Iraq and the Iraqi people," the foreign ministry said in Paris.

During his stay, Kouchner will also meet Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari.

On Sunday, the French minister is also expected to travel to Arbil, capital of the autonomous Kurdish region 350 kilometres north of Baghdad to open a French representative office.

France has an embassy in Baghdad, but had announced it would also open two more diplomatic offices in Iraq - one in Arbil and the other in the oil-rich port of Basra, 550 kilometres south of the capital.

The visit will be "an opportunity to express the availability of France to work to promote national reconciliation in Iraq," the foreign ministry said.

His trip comes two days after the International Compact with Iraq conference in Stockholm where the international community hailed the Baghdad government's progress in security and reconstruction.

A French diplomat said in Paris, "It is important that the international community, particularly the European Union, rise to the occasion to help Iraqis," noting that Paris will have the rotating EU presidency in the second half of this year.

Kouchner arrived in the country from Jordan where he said on Friday that France was ready to receive 500 refugees from Iraq "as a first step".

http://www.expatica.com/fr/articles/news/France-expresses-renewed-commitment-in-Iraq-.html

-- June 2, 2008 10:15 AM


Sara wrote:

It looks like the US is finally getting a little credit for how well they treat detainees..
even if it is here in a left-handed way.
Let's face it, the US isn't into torturing, as even the critics now admit:

==

Critics see progress at US jails in Iraq
Detainee turnover to Iraqi prisons puts gains at risk
By Alissa J. Rubin
New York Times News Service
June 2, 2008

BAGHDAD - Once a byword for torture and disgrace, the American-run detention system in Iraq has improved, even its critics say, as the military has incorporated it into a larger counterinsurgency strategy that seeks to avoid mistreatment that could create new enemies.

But these gains may soon be at risk. Thousands of detainees are to be turned over to the Iraqi government, some perhaps as early as the end of the year, a further step toward Iraqi sovereignty. Yet however tarnished America's reputation may be for its treatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, the reputation of many Iraqi prisons is worse.

"The Americans are better than Ministry of Interior prisons," said Mahmoud Abu Dumour, a former detainee from Fallujah, the Sunni stronghold west of Baghdad. "They will torture you. Maybe you will die. With the Americans, if you enter Abu Ghraib, they will only wage psychological war on you."

While nearly all of the more than 21,000 detainees in Iraq are in US custody, Major General Douglas M. Stone, who runs detainee operations countrywide, is proceeding with a broad experiment to restructure it. His goal is to use the system of detention centers as another front in the counterinsurgency war, trying to reduce the likelihood that they become a recruiting ground for militants.

Stone's goal now is to isolate those he believes are extremists, who are the minority of detainees, and convince the other detainees that they will have better lives if they keep away from those who preach jihad. It is part of the effort to bring detention policy in line with US military strategy that seeks to separate insurgents from civilians, mentally and physically.

Stone's goal is to move detainees, particularly more moderate ones, through the system faster by instituting review boards to hear each detainee's case. So far, these boards have released at least 8,400 people. He has also pushed to expand paid work programs, like carpentry shops, brick factories, and laundries, as well as educational programs, especially for juvenile detainees and for the many illiterate adults.

Recidivism is down: Since Stone's arrival last year, just 28 of those released have been jailed again. That number, less than 1 percent of the total released, reflects considerably fewer repeat detentions than before the administrative hearings and other reforms, when recapture rates ran at 5 percent to 10 percent, according to military lawyers.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2008/06/02/critics_see_progress_at_us_jails_in_ iraq/?rss_id=Boston+Globe+--+Today%27s+paper+A+to+Z

-- June 2, 2008 10:26 AM


Sara wrote:

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Iraq:

“But regardless of what you think about how we got where we are, it is terribly important not to get the end game wrong in Iraq, because the consequences for the whole Middle East, and frankly, I think, for the world, are quite dire if we do..

===

End game the main focus in Iraq, says Gates
Uzbekistan News.Net
Sunday 1st June, 2008

With progress being made in Iraq, the United States must focus on getting the “end game” right, while being patient enough to refrain from making “a tactical decision that has strategic consequences,” Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Sunday.

Gates, addressing questions after his keynote address at the Asia Security Summit, conceded that the war in Iraq war has been controversial.

“But regardless of what you think about how we got where we are, it is terribly important not to get the end game wrong in Iraq, because the consequences for the whole Middle East, and frankly, I think, for the world, are quite dire if we do,” he said.

Gates cited “broad, if often grudging, admission” that progress has been made in the past year since the strategy supported by the troop surge took hold.

“My hope is that the situation in Iraq will continue to improve,” he said. He said she shares Army Gen. David H. Petreaus’ goal, stated during his confirmation hearings for the top U.S. Central Command post, that the United States will be in a position to continue troop drawdowns this fall. Over time, he said, the United States expects to see a “transition of mission,” with the Iraqis assuming more roles currently carried out by the U.S. military.

http://www.uzbekistannews.net/story/366069

-- June 2, 2008 10:32 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq economy: Oil supply saviour?
May 23rd 2008

COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The growing concerns in the world energy market about the risks of a supply crunch have been a critical factor behind the recent surge in oil prices to a new record of US$135/barrel. Speculators are betting huge sums on the assumption that the oil market (and other primary energy markets) will remain tight for many years to come, owing to the inelasticity of demand and to the constraints on long-term supply. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is doing its bit to allay these concerns, but has acknowledged that once its current crop of oilfield projects is complete in around 2013, there will be little scope for further capacity increases. Similar strains are evident in most of the other major oil-producing countries. One significant exception is Iraq, which holds (at least) 10% of the world's proven reserves, but accounts for only 2.5% of total production. Iraq has the potential to furnish a long-term solution to the oil market's long-term supply problem, but it will need to improve dramatically on its recent performance before buyers of oil futures will be convinced that it can deliver.

All about oil

If history had been kinder, Iraq could now be producing at a comparable level to Saudi Arabia. Instead, three wars, 13 years of sanctions and five years of internal conflict have eroded Iraq's oil infrastructure and human capital. However, Iraq also has a history of recovery. Production peaked at over 3.5m barrels/day (b/d) in 1980 on the eve of the Iran-Iraq war, but then averaged less than half that level during the eight-year war. It had nearly recovered to 3.5m b/d in 1990, after which the invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent UN sanctions severely limited exports, and hence production. In the five years before the US-led invasion of 2003, the sanctions regime gradually permitted greater exports, and production was often above 2.5m b/d. However, it fluctuated considerably due to the impact of years of underinvestment, restrictions on the import of spare parts and isolation from the international oil industry.

This volatility in production has continued in post-Saddam Iraq, although the average level has usually been below 2m b/d, and only exceeded the immediate pre-war level of 2.3m b/d for the first time at the end of 2007. Operations have been frequently disrupted by events ranging from the bombing of pipelines to the murder of oil workers. Moreover, the competition between political factions for influence at every level in the industry—as well as widespread corruption—has not provided suitable conditions for a revival of the industry. There is even concern that damage may have been caused to some fields in order to maintain production at modest levels.

Things may be changing. Iraq's deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, said in April that Iraq's total reserves, could be as high as 350bn barrels, triple the 115bn that has been its officially stated level for many years. The figure is aspirational and should be treated carefully but, given that there has been barely any new exploration of Iraq's promising geology in 30 years, an upward revision of the official reserves figure seems long overdue. This underlines Iraq's uniquely large reserves-to-production (RP) ratio, which was already the world's highest and, based on Mr Salih's estimate and at the expected production level of 2.3m b/d in 2008, would stand at a remarkable 415 years (compared with a world average of about 40 years). If Iraq were able to achieve the average Middle East RP-ratio of 80 years then it would be pumping 4m b/d based on the current reserves, and 12m b/d based on Salih's aspirational estimate. Getting there would take some time, around five years for 4m b/d and probably more than 20 years for the most optimistic level. It would also require Iraq to achieve a sufficient degree of stability. However, if there are promising signs of progress over the next 18 months, then it might be enough to mitigate fears of shortages next decade and dampen the futures market.

Fair share

The issue on which everything hinges is the basis on which Iraq's oil will be developed. Although at its height in the 1970s, Iraq's national oil industry would have had the capacity to implement a significant part of the exploration and development needed, it has been severely eroded since then. Therefore, it is widely recognised that foreign expertise will be needed, but Iraqis are split on two important issues which have so far held back progress. The first is whether the development and operation of the oil sector will be managed entirely from Baghdad or also at a regional level, particularly in the Kurdish region. The second is the terms under which international oil companies (IOCs) will be invited to participate. In particular, the idea of production-sharing contracts (PSCs) has aroused such considerable opposition—from parliamentarians and oil workers' unions who believe that Iraq should fund the development itself (particularly now that there is a large budget surplus)—that the government has apparently backtracked. These controversies have blocked the ratification in parliament of a national hydrocarbons law which was first approved by the cabinet in February 2007. Although no draft has so far emerged that elicits a majority of support, it may yet pass this summer as part of a bundle of laws.

Stop-gaps

In the meantime, the oil minister, Hussein Shahristani, announced plans in January for a series of two-year technical service agreements to upgrade five existing fields by 100,000 b/d each. This is a relatively uncontroversial first step, simply paying IOCs for their services without granting them any claims on revenues or reserves—but none of the contracts have yet been finalised. Then, in mid-April, Iraq released a long-delayed list of 35 IOCs initially approved to bid for more substantial long-term contracts covering exploration, development and production. Theoretically, bidding on the first round of contracts could be complete by the end of the year, and if Iraq—or at least the regions containing the respective oil fields—is sufficiently stable, then work could begin soon afterwards. However, there is a significant risk that this timeline could slip due to bureaucracy and possibly to political shifts following the provincial elections in October.

Kurdish exception

In contrast to delays at the national level, there has been a great deal of activity in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. The Iraqi Kurds had long felt that their region had been deliberately deprived of an oil industry by successive governments in Baghdad, and therefore pressed ahead with development in their essentially autonomous region. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) began drawing in IOCs both because it had little capacity itself and also to provide some international leverage in the inevitable confrontation with Baghdad. Given their weak position and limited finances, the KRG has been happy to sign PSCs, and the first oil well was drilled by Norwegian company DNO in 2006 and now produces about 7,000 b/d. It has signed PSCs with other IOCs including Canada's Western Oil Sands, the UK's Sterling Energy and most recently with Niko Resources of Canada in May. Also, in frustration at the failure to agree a national hydrocarbons law, the KRG passed its own in August 2007. Until now most oil majors have avoided the KRG because of the potential backlash from Baghdad, demonstrated by the fact that companies such as the Korea National Oil Corp that have signed contracts with the Kurds were explicitly excluded from the list of 35 approved IOCs.

Hurdles

Although there is some way to go, 2008 may be seen as the year in which Iraq's oil industry began to recover and, when the markets recognise this, it may take some of the edge off the oil price. However, given Iraq's history of dashed expectations, it would be unwise to factor major production increases into oil supply projections until Iraq has passed a series of important tests. One of these is whether the Iraqi army will be able to maintain security as the US draws down its troops. Another is whether the rival Shia movements led by Muqtada al-Sadr and Abdel-Aziz al Hakim can make the transition from street fighting to purely political competition—an issue that will probably not be resolved until the next general election in December 2009. Finally, the KRG and the rest of Iraq will need to conclude that it is worth reaching a compromise on Kirkuk (the disputed northern province that contains Iraq's largest oilfield) and regional autonomy in order to share in the benefits that a major expansion in the oil industry will bring.

http://www.viewswire.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=563384841®ion_id=430000443&page _title=Latest+analysis&rf=0

-- June 2, 2008 10:43 AM


Sara wrote:

The US military, unappreciated but STILL.. doing a great job:

==

Iraq: US military captures roadside bomb suspect north of Baghdad
Monday, June 02, 2008

BAGHDAD - The U.S. military says a criminal suspected of manufacturing and planting roadside bombs has been captured northwest of Baghdad.

A statement issued Monday says the suspect is responsible for the bombing deaths of several Iraqi soldiers and civilians. He's also allegedly connected to the bombing of a bridge north of the capital that killed several Iraqis last year.

The military says soldiers with the 25th Infantry Division captured the man Saturday in Tarmiyah, 50 kilometers (30 miles) north of Baghdad.

http://www.macroworldinvestor.com/m/m.w?lp=GetStory&id=308913031

-- June 2, 2008 10:52 AM


Sara wrote:

Thanks for the stories, timbitts and Carole.
For you two and the board...
About putting your Dinar into a safety deposit box..
I know you are Canadian, timbitts, but I know some people in Canada who also had theirs seized..
so this article is applicable to you as well.
Think about it.. wouldn't suddenly MILLIONS in assets be very... tempting?
When I read something this eye opening.. it is worth sharing.
Also when the Dinar hits.. where will you put your valuables you collect?
(Carole, note the references to California..)

Not-So-Safe-Deposit Boxes: States Seize Citizens' Property to Balance Their Budgets
Resources to Search for Unclaimed Property in Your Name
By ELISABETH LEAMY
May 12, 2008

The 50 U.S. states are holding more than $32 billion worth of unclaimed property that they're supposed to safeguard for their citizens. But a "Good Morning America" investigation found some states aggressively seize property that isn't really unclaimed and then use the money -- your money -- to balance their budgets.

Unclaimed property consists of things like forgotten apartment security deposits, uncashed dividend checks and safe-deposit boxes abandoned when an elderly relative dies.

Banks and other businesses are required to turn that property over to the state for safekeeping. The problem is that the states return less than a quarter of unclaimed property to the rightful owners.

Not-So-Safe-Deposit Boxes

San Francisco resident Carla Ruff's safe-deposit box was drilled, seized, and turned over to the state of California, marked "owner unknown."

"I was appalled," Ruff said. "I felt violated."

Unknown? Carla's name was right on documents in the box at the Noe Valley Bank of America location. So was her address -- a house about six blocks from the bank. Carla had a checking account at the bank, too -- still does -- and receives regular statements. Plus, she has receipts showing she's the kind of person who paid her box rental fee. And yet, she says nobody ever notified her.

"They are zealously uncovering accounts that are not unclaimed," Ruff said.

To make matters worse, Ruff discovered the loss when she went to her box to retrieve important paperwork she needed because her husband was dying. Those papers had been shredded.

And that's not all. Her great-grandmother's precious natural pearls and other jewelry had been auctioned off. They were sold for just $1,800, even though they were appraised for $82,500.

"These things were things that she gave to me," Ruff said. "I valued them because I loved her."

Bank of America told ABC News it deeply regrets the situation and appreciates the difficulty of what Mrs. Ruff was going through. The bank has reached a settlement with Ruff and continues to update its unclaimed property procedures as laws change.

California's Class Action Lawsuit

Ruff is not alone. Attorney Bill Palmer represents her and countless other citizens in a class action lawsuit against the state of California.

"They figured the safety-deposit box was safer than keeping it under the mattress," Palmer said. "In the case of a lot of citizens, they were wrong, weren't they?"

California law used to say property was unclaimed if the rightful owner had had no contact with the business for 15 years. But during various state budget crises, the waiting period was reduced to seven years, and then five, and then three. Legislators even tried for one year. Why? Because the state wanted to use that free money.

"That's absolutely correct," said California State Controller John Chiang, who inherited the situation when he came into office. "What we've done here over the last two decades has been dead wrong. We've kept the property and not provided owners with the opportunities -- the best opportunities -- to get their property back."

Chiang now faces the daunting task of returning $5.1 billion worth of unclaimed property to people. Some states keep their unclaimed property in a special trust fund and only tap into the interest they earn on it. But California dumps the money into the general fund -- and spends it.

"It's supposed to be segregated and protected," Palmer said. "California has taken all of that $5.1 billion and has used it as a massive loan."

California became so addicted to spending people's money, that, for years, it simply stopped sending notices to the rightful owners. ABC News obtained a 1996 internal memo in which the lawyer for the Bureau of Unclaimed Property argued against expanding programs to notify rightful owners. He wrote, "It could well result in additional claims of monies that would otherwise flow into the general fund."

Seizing More Than Safe-Deposit Boxes

It's not just safe-deposit boxes. A British man went to retire and discovered the $4 million in U.S. stock he had been counting on had been seized and sold for $200,000 years earlier -- even though he was in touch with the company about other matters.

A Sacramento family lost out on railroad land rights their ancestors had owned for generations -- also sold off as unclaimed property.

"If I had hung onto it, I would be a millionaire, multimillionaire," said John Whitley. "But that didn't happen because we didn't get to hold it."

State Reforms

California's unclaimed property program was so out of control that, last year, the courts issued injunctions barring the state from seizing any more property until it made reforms. Since then, Chiang has taken several steps to try to clean up the program.

For example, the state now sends notices alerting citizens about unclaimed property before it is handed over to the state -- the only state to do so. Once unclaimed property is delivered to the state, it is now held for several months while the state tries to contact the owners, rather than it being immediately sold off or destroyed.

Which raises the question, in the Internet era, is anybody really lost anymore? California and other states are just beginning to make use of modern databases that can find most anyone in minutes. Unfortunately, California only uses those databases to search after it has already seized a citizen's property.

If California does get better at locating people, that could present another challenge. Remember, right now, the state spends the money.

"It's like the last guy in line at a pizza parlor," Palmer criticized. "There is only so much pizza. At the end, when I get up to the counter to claim my pizza, there may be no pizza for me."

California's fiscal problems are legendary and once again in the news, so it's reasonable to question whether the state can afford to repay its citizens if a bunch of them surface at once.

"There is always going to be money to give the owners when they make their claim, " Chiang insisted. "I don't want my legacy to say I continued a broken program. I want my legacy to be 'this guy was the guy who truly cared about the people and returned their money.'"

California is not the only state to come under fire for its handling of unclaimed property. In Delaware, unclaimed property is the third largest source of state revenue. Idaho recently passed an unprecedented law that says the state gets to keep unclaimed property permanently if the rightful owners don't claim it within 10 short years. And all 50 states pay private contractors 10 to 12 percent commissions to locate and seize accounts for them. It's an inherent conflict of interest: the more rightful owners are found, the less money the contractors make.

Of course, there are some states who handle their people's property with respect. Oregon never takes title to unclaimed property. Instead, it holds it in a perpetual trust fund.

Colorado uses the interest on its unclaimed property fund to pay for some state programs, but leaves the principal untouched.

Missouri, Iowa and Kansas make extra efforts to reunite people with their property –even setting up booths at state fairs to get the word out. The State of Maryland actively compares the names on unclaimed accounts with state income tax records. If it finds a match, the state simply cuts a check and sends it to the citizen.

Protecting Your Property

So, the question for citizens is, how do you protect yourself?

Make contact with your bank, your brokerage firm, etc. at least once a year, in a way that creates a paper trail. Make sure they have your current address.

If you own stock, occasionally vote your proxies or take other steps to keep your stock ownership active. Stay in touch with your broker.

Write a list of all your accounts and keep it with your will, so your heirs will know where to look.

Consider insuring valuables even if you keep them in your safe-deposit box. That way, you're covered financially if the bank or state makes a mistake and empties your box. Plus, safe-deposit contents have been known to be destroyed by fire or flooding.

If you want to search for unclaimed property in your name, you do not need to pay other people to do it for you. Check out the following links for more information:

National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators

www.missingmoney.com

Comments:

1) The same thing happened to my grandfather about 25 years ago in Oklahoma. He went to his safety deposit box to check on some bonds that he had put in there several years before. To his surprise they were gone. His safety deposit box was empty. He never did find out what happened to his bonds. We still don't know. He had been paying the rent on his box every year.

Posted by:
carlyonsue 1:28 AM

2) Unclaimed property going to the state due to no activity? How about finding the box missing 3 or so months after you last accessed your box? No one at * could help nor did they know where the box was. Told to come back on Monday only to be told that the manager is on the phone, can you return on Tuesday. The manager amazing found the tin in another bin (of course the cash and jewelry were gone) a few days after the incident. Filing a police report (nothing they can do, a bank matter), talking to the FBI (nothing they can do unless it was a bank account), talking to an attorney (an uphill battle, how can you prove what you had in there). Only after writing the CEO; the regional manager who "investigated" the matter said they were not liable, the customer must have placed the tin in the wrong location, but offered $500. Subpoena for employees (one allegedly was no longer there, how convenient) and bank documents to show up for small claims court brought on delay tactics by their lawyers which postponed court dates but generated another offer for $6500 (they said they weren't liable, right?) which victim refused. The battle pursued to the date of court, but the bank's legal rep said they wouldn’t fight it & would pay the $7500 max for small claims; therefore the case wouldn't go before the judge since they were willing to pay the max. The judge never got to hear what happened (perhaps a mistake on the victim's part) but he didn't feel he had any other recourse at that point. $7500 didn't cover the total lost but he would not have gotten that if he had given up. Apparently banks can do whatever they please and get away with it. Valuables buried in the ground in New Orleans before Katrina flood water is safer than safe deposit boxes at *.
Posted by:
savethewetlands May-12

3) My mother just experienced the same in April of this year with *. She is a retiree and she spends the winters in Alabama. When she came back to NY and went into the bank to get a piece of jewlery she was told that her safe deposit box had been drilled and all of her belongings (40years) had been removed. Visibly upset the bank told her that she had signed over the contents in Jan of 07 when she told them that it was a lie and repeatedly asked for proof they called the police to have her from the bank because she was causing a disturbance and interfering with their ability to conduct business. After getting my mother to calm down a bit (not have a stroke or heart attack) I called the bank and was told that that the branch manager was out of the office and they could not start an investigation until she came back . I left several messages with 7 on your side to try to get help and still have not gotten a call back. We got a lawyer and my mother was able to get the contents of her box back, but we are still are trying to track down her annuities and she lost her life insurance all because no one changed her address in the system. Can you imagine the look on a 73 year olds face when they go into the bank to check their box and are casualy told that it was drilled and the contents which is their entire life savings has been removed. My mother has a support system, but what about other seniors are out there that has happned to and have no family to hold the banks accountable for their actions. I hope this investigation continues and the banks are forced to stop taking advantage of retirees. Its not right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! People work a lifetime and put their trust in the banks only to be betrayed by them.
Posted by:
nybeauty18 May-12

4) I kids had stock in a bank in California affiliated with Bank Of America and now I can't find anyone to help me locate it. We have the stock paper work but no one seems to know what happen to it. How can we find out?
Posted by:
evaerlich May-12

5) My recently deceased father left over $42,000 in Savings & other accounts at * with my brother named as Trustee. An unauthorized family member with NO legal standing, not named on the account or was not a check signer was able to get Bank of America to empty/raid my deceased fathers accounts. Now I am holding thousands of dollars of my dad's final medical expenses with no funds to pay for them. My dad took pride in paying his bills on time and had a perfect credit record. He stated my times prior to his death that his final expenses were to be paid and them the balance of any monies to be split among children. * took it upon themselves to disperse his money how they saw fit, disregard the names on the account and totally abuse the trust my dad had put in them to safekeep his hard earned money. Now we have to pay thousands in legal fees we don't have to get the money back, seek criminal prosecution against that family member and all because * is a giant in the banking industry and we are just "the little people". In searching for legal aid I found a Class Action Lawsuit against * filed in October 2004 for the very same thing they did to us. What can we do to stop this from happening to others...Their arrogance is amazing. They are so big and have endless resources they can cheat and steal from anyone not paying attention or violate all forms of trust. Can someone help us?
Posted by:
lrrios May-12

6) We also lost - albeit temporarily - the contents of our B of A safe deposit box a couple years ago. When I went to access our box at the branch where we hold mulitple accounts, key in hand, I was told we didn't have a box. The manager told me to be quiet and he would check, which he did later that day and found the contents of our box ready to be shipped off to the state. Occupant Unknown was written on the outside of the envelope which contained stock certificates and the deed to our house - obviously with our names readily observable. The lock had been changed because it showed no one was paying on the account - and we weren't because years before we had been given the free box because we held accounts with the branch, so I was never surprised when I didn't get a bil - because we never had. I was relieved to retrieve the papers, that also included my husband's discharge papers. A close call that could have been a disaster, especially if something unforseen had happend to us and our kids had needed to access all the papers.
Posted by:
Raywood Housewife May-12

7) g4girl - I feel you. I used a Virginia state site & found that my mom had some unclaimed property. After a few exchanges back & forth I filled out the necessary form online & got a standard reply stating that there was a backlog. Well of course over time I forgot about it and it was only after cleaning out old email files a year later that I remembered that my claim was never addressed. So after a few more emails back & forth they finally sent my mom her money. They definitely don't make it easy and you have to ride them in order to get the property.
Posted by:
tmoney22193 May-12

8) Shame on them for stealing peoples things. Yes, people should keep up with their goods but in the case of the woman who lived 6 blocks away from the bank, paid her safety deposit box rent and all of the papers had her name and address on them, that was just flat-out stealing. You can't go into a bank and pick-up someone's laptop from their desk while they are on vacation and say it's unclaimed, that's stealing! They stole that land and these peoples valuables. Shame on all involved, you knew better.
Posted by:
TJusteace May-12

9) Bank of America. Been there. Done that. Never again.
Posted by:
monicahais May-12

10) garryowen777: Maybe you should reread the article. People are being rob by states like California due that the states want money that they're going so far to said property is unclaimed when in fact it's clear who are the owners. That woman despite for years have an account in the bank and her name and address in the safety box have her valuables removed and marked as 'unclaimed'. This type of practice has to stop. It's robbery!
Posted by:
jupmod May-12

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4832471&page=1

-- June 2, 2008 11:11 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Thanks for your comments, Carole. I'm generally a fairly conservative investor, but with the Dinar, I don't think my conservative investment philosophy makes much sense.

Here's why:

The reason I say this, has to do with how I view common sense. Most of the time when people say that something is too good to be true, they're right. That's because for most situations in life, what tends to happen is not all that exciting. Most people are quite ordinary and lead ordinary lives. Most situations are humdrum. Most people who are reasonably intelligent will be presented with very ordinary investment opportunities, the vast majority of the time.

Extraordinary things don't happen, most of the time. Most people can't run a 4 minute mile. Most people can't jump, pivot and shoot, in a basketball game, like Michael Jordon. I used to play ice hockey, as a kid. I was pretty ordinary. Most hockey players are quite average, in ability. I read once that only about 1 hockey player, in 100,000 ever make the National Hockey League. I suspect the same averages apply to basketball, and other sports.

Extraordinary investment opportunities are just like that. They don't come up, all that often. They really don't. But the thing is, occassionally they really do. And if a person is clever enough to recognize opportunity, and take advantage at the right time, you can benefit.

Let me tell you a story, to illustrate this:

My friend, Mitch, is an example of that. Mitch was born into a very poor family. His father died young, leaving the mother destitute. She was forced to live off public welfare. Now Mitch left home, quite young. He didn't even finish high school. But Mitch is quite clever. He moved to Alberta about twenty-five years ago, and worked as a plumber. At the time, oil-rich Alberta was having a hard time, financially. Due to the Liberal government in Ottawa that had an exccessive taxation policy, confiscating much of Alberta's wealth, Alberta entered a severe economic crash, and recession, during the early 1990s. The value of real estate plummetted. A house that formerly cost $150,000, suddenly cost $50,000. Quite a bargain. Mitch had a steady job, and bought a cheap and modest house. Prices recovered a few years later, and Mitch was benefitting from his investment. Twenty years later, Mitch had nearly paid off his house. Keeping up with economic news, over the years, he sensed another boom was headed Alberta's way. So he took his initial investment equity, and flipped up houses three times, each time to a larger and larger house. This was possible, of course, because Mitch was hardworking, and reasonably shrewd, as a self-employed plumber, and probably made the same income level as a chartered general accountant.

So, the recent boom hit Alberta, due to the development of oil resources in northern Alberta. Calgary, being the business centre, benefitted. Mitch chose his real estate carefully, and bought some nice property, on two acres, on the outskirts of the city, with a view of the Rocky Mountains. And that's how my friend Mitch, with a grade 10 education, raised on public welfare, ended up living in a $2.1 million dollar house, with a beautiful view of the mountains.

Which is extraordinary, if you think about it. How many high school dropouts, raised on welfare, end up living in multi-million dollar houses?

Now, Mitch's wife is from Nova Scotia. She misses her family some times. Most of them, including her parents, are back in Halifax. Mitch and Sarah have one daughter, who's grown up, and going to university, back east. So Mitch and Sara decided to sell their house, at the height of the real estate boom, which was a little over a year ago here in Alberta. They are now living in Nova Scotia, and are quite happy about the move.

Tax laws being what they are, in Canada, homeowners don't have to pay capital gains tax, on the sale of a principle residence. So what that meant was, for that couple, they ended up with about $2 million in equity. As it turns out, compared to Alberta, real estate is quite cheap in Nova Scotia. For $150,000 and careful shopping, you can buy a nice house to live in, in a rural location. Since Mitch and Sara both love the country side, are now retired, at around age 50, that is what they decided to do. They bought a lovely farmhouse.

And Mitch, the high school dropout, who never went to university, and was raised on welfare, by a single mother with a grade 8 education, is a retired multi-millionaire before age 50.

Now, this is the sort of thing that does not happen every day, but it does, in fact, happen. In Mitch's case, the keys were buying at the right time, when prices were low, sensing future economic opportunity, and planning to take advantage of it, with good timing.

All of which we are trying to do here.

So, getting back to common sense, I think it's fair to recognize that extraordinary things do not happen every day. Probably 99% of high school dropouts do not end up, multi-millionaires. But a few do, due mostly to good timing and having the sense to take advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Now, I would guess, if a person ever did any sort of formal study, and statistical analysis, of a wide variety of investment opportunities, they would find a pattern that went something like this: The vast majority of investment would pay very ordinary returns. This would agree with most people's real world experience. In the pile of investments, there would be a fair number of really poor investments, that paid a low level of return. I'd guess maybe twenty percent would fall into this category. Then there would be maybe 10-20 percent of the investment pile, that paid a fairly high rate of return. And, if the pile of investments were large enough, there would be a few investments that paid off extraordinarily well.

Those are the investments I look for.

There's an old saying, 'if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.' Well, that makes good sense. That's because, statistically, most investments simply do not generate a high rate of return. In other words, common sense tells us that the vast majority of investments do not generate an extremely high rate of return. They don't. We all know that.

But, as I said, in a previous post, I'm interested in "human oddities", which are really, can be thought of as, statistical variations, from the norm. In other words, I've always been interested in looking for situations and occurances that are completely outside of the broad statistical norm.

And I think that the Iraqi Dinar is one of those situations. Due to a set of extraordinary circumstances, their currency is valued far lower than common sense would dictate.

And getting back to my conservative investment philosophy, I will stick to this philosophy, because it has done quite well for me. And since most investments are quite ordinary, a conservative investment philosophy aligns with that statistical truth, that most investments are average. Why take risks, all of the time, when most of the time, it's not worth it, since most investments will pay a humble rate of return? It makes no sense. That's why I, very very seldom buy riskier investments. I work too hard for my money to do that.

And that conservative philosophy makes sense, most of the time. However, variations in human norms being what they are, occasionally there will be an extraordinary investment opportunity come along. And what should common sense tell us, in that situation? First of all, check it out, very carefully, because the old addage really does apply most of the time, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

So, along that line, I have spent several years, part time, checking out this opportunity. For instance, while taking a break from this site, I spent hundreds of hours researching about the oil industry, worlwide, all with a perpective to try to figure out what role Iraq will play, in the future of world energy markets. And I came away from that quest thoroughly convinced that Iraq has an incredibly bright future, will be extremely wealthy. Which means the Dinar will be highly valued.

So, I feel I have done my due diligence, in looking at and analysing an investment opportunity that sounds too good to be true. Most once in a lifetime opportunities sound too good to be true, and they are, in fact. This one sounds too good to be true, but I believe it is, in fact, a once in a lifetime opportunity, that will pay off.

So, common sense tells me to look very carefully, at all investment opportunities that come along. I always do that. It tells me, occasionally something will come along that sounds extraordinary. The Dinar came along. Common sense tells me, most things that sound extraordinary, run the risk of being frauds, so you better check things out, very carefully. I've done that, and the Dinar has passed my skeptical internal fact and reality checker.

And finally, common sense tells me, once they have passed my skepticism internal fact checker, there are some investments that are so extraordinary, that if they are true, and pay off, and if I did not try to take advantage of the opportunity, and if the investment did in fact, pay off, extraordinarily well, and if I "missed the boat", that I would regret it the rest of my life.

That too, is a cost. Most people measure only, what they might lose, if an investment would fail. Many people would not invest in the Dinar, and risk, say, ten thousand dollars, because they would regret losing that money. They'd say, they could have taken a couple of very nice trips, with that money. But what about the risk of losing several million dollars, if the investment succeeds? Many people don't measure that risk, but that risk seems quite real to me. And that, Carole, is a risk I am not willing to take.

That being the case, why not invest in the Dinar? Most of my investments are quite conservative, always have been, always will be. But I can look for extraordinary opportunities, every now and then, because I will never risk the bulk of my capital. I'm not betting the farm, on this investment, Carole. Only the tractor.

That way, if this investment does not turn out, I will have had, a lot of fun, reading and learning about something that interests me, for thousands of hours. Since I get a lot of enjoyment out of it, even if the investment fails, I still feel like it was a success, because I spent a part of my life doing something I quite enjoy.

And if the investment does, in fact, pay off, as I suspect it will, then I will have the time of my life, in other ways. I am extremely curious about the world, and a great many things, and I intend to use a lot of my time travelling the world, learning and reading.

So, on this particular investment, I am throwing caution to the wind, being brave, and hoping for the best, while preparing for the worst.

Be brave, Carole, be brave.

-- June 2, 2008 12:16 PM


Sara wrote:

McCain hits Obama on Iran, Iraq
Posted by Foon Rhee, deputy national political editor
June 2, 2008

John McCain went directly after Barack Obama today before a key pro-Israel group on Middle East policy.

Before the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's policy conference, the presumptive Republican nominee hit the likely Democratic nominee for voting against declaring Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. McCain, and Obama's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, voted for the resolution, which critics said gave the Bush administration too much license to consider military action.

"Over three quarters of the Senate supported this obvious step, but not Senator Obama," McCain said, according to prepared remarks. "He opposed this resolution because its support for countering Iranian influence in Iraq was, he said, a 'wrong message nt only to the world, but also to the region.' But here, too, he is mistaken. Holding Iran’s influence in check, and holding a terrorist organization accountable, sends exactly the right message -- to Iran, to the region and to the world."

"It’s worth recalling that America’s progress in Iraq is the direct result of the new strategy that Senator Obama opposed," McCain said. "It was the strategy he predicted would fail, when he voted cut off funds for our forces in Iraq. He now says he intends to withdraw combat troops from Iraq -- one to two brigades per month until they are all removed. He will do so regardless of the conditions in Iraq, regardless of the consequences for our national security, regardless of Israel’s security, and in disregard of the best advice of our commanders on the ground.

"This course would surely result in a catastrophe," McCain continued. "If our troops are ordered to make a forced retreat, we risk all-out civil war, genocide, and a failed state in the heart of the Middle East. Al Qaeda terrorists would rejoice in the defeat of the United States."

AIPAC is an influential group among Jewish voters, whom McCain is courting and whom Obama has been trying to reassure. In recent polls, Obama has not been faring as well among them as recent Democratic presidential candidates.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/06/mccain_hits_oba_2.html

-- June 2, 2008 12:28 PM


Sara wrote:

Baghdad, KRG to resume oil Talks
Baghdad and Kurdistan governments will resume negotiations over the oil law.
01 June 2008 (United Press International)

The Iraqi central and Kurdistan regional governments will resume negotiations over the oil law and key issues in early June.

Falah Mustafa Bakir, the head of the Kurdistan Regional Government's Department of Foreign Relations, told UPI "there is better understanding" after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched the incursion into Basra and the Kurdish leadership backed him.

"It created a positive atmosphere in Baghdad," he said.

Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and Maliki will meet, as will their respective delegations, including KRG Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami and Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani.

The two energy ministers have butted heads over the KRG's signing its own exploration and production deals with foreign companies and a dispute as to what the oil law should look like.

"The KRG is determined to go ahead and contribute positively in order to have a hydrocarbon law, based on our belief that the private sector and foreign investment can be a good impetus and good incentive to enhance the economy," Bakir said. "We believe that our approach, which is a free market oriented, market economy approach, would help Iraq at this stage."

Many outside the semiautonomous Kurdish region favor to some extent the continuation of a more centralized and nationalized oil sector.

Bakir said the two prime ministers agreed that the February 2007 draft of the oil law would be under negotiation, and that all of the oil-related laws and issues would be sent to Parliament as a package.

These are the hydrocarbons law, the revenue sharing law, the laws re-establishing the Iraq National Oil Co. and reorganizing the Ministry of Oil, and a list of oil fields and exploration blocks that determine whether they are controlled by the central or local governments.

http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/31874

-- June 2, 2008 12:56 PM


marcus wrote:

doe anyone know what happen to the iraqi dinar forum

-- June 2, 2008 1:35 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,
Very inspiring and well thought out. You are correct about ordinary investments bring ordinary results. Which for stability, is great.

I too have my ears perk up when something seems like a riskier but very possible outcome. The attraction to the Dinar is the low cost.
Of course as well as all the other amenities that could attach itself.

Having said that.....what do you think about the Vietnamese Dong?

Sara,

Thanks for articles on Safe Deposit boxes. I have no confidence in Banks at that and a few other levels.

In 1978, I was awarded a large lawsuit settlement. I put the money in the bank. MY MONEY! A year later, we decided to take advantage of the "gold rush" going on at that time. I went to the bank to withdraw 25k and ws told I would have to order the money and that it would be several days before it would arrive. I WAS DUMBFOUNDED! I had just read the book "How to Survive the Money Crash", where similar predictions of banks controling your money. So I was in a panic! I told the Bank Operations officer I want ed to take all of my money out.

When I got home, I called my lawyer and the LA Times to tell my story. I spoke to the Financial Editor, who snickered and said I had every right to be skeptical and scarred, mostly hecause American Savings was in the process of being acquired by another bank within the next few weeks.

I held my breath for 10 days until I could pick up my cash.....which I had 2 carry out in 2 briefcases ( cause I wanted some small bills too). They were so upset with me and said it looked very suspicious. I was insistant on doing it my way. They wanted to write me a cashiers chec..but knowing what I did about the bank changing hands, I didn't dare.

Since then, the only money transactions Ihave with banks is a household checking account. I have bought several short term( never more than a year) CD's. I have never had more money in the bank than is insured by govt. ( BTW did you know thaat your bank only inusres 100k, even if you have more than one account and it adds up to more than 100k)

The only money or valuables I have in my house are very secured by a vault that would cut your arm off if you ever tried to steal it,,,,lol (remember my husband is a cop!)The rest is in realestate, and tax free municipal bonds.

Banks are dangerous! and Credit unions 100 x's worse!

Of course I was raised by a father that had a 5th grade education, from the old country, that kept his money "under the matress". He was a body and fender man until he saw opporotunity to buy his own body shop......one of those guys Tim was talking about. He died very wealthy leaving his family well taken care of while accomplishing all the things in life he wanted to do. He retired at 53 and him and mom had a lot of fun. I don't remember him taking any financial risks, and I have often said he would turn over in his grave if he knew what we were all dong with the dinar....but who really knows?

The one thing we all really can be sure of is that no mater how smart or dunb we may have been financially in this lifetime....no one gets to leave this planet with a penny.....soooooo with that in mind, I have always tried to make my money count for something more than networth.....like vacation memories with family,, and helping those not so fortunate. My dad was a very generous man, and God rewarded him. But my maternal grandmother was very poor, but gave all she had to help someone in need....she was a remarkable woman and had a funeral procession equvialent to royalty.
She had a lifelong dream to be able to go to a bus stop and give away a million dollars to a poor old lady waiting for a busd to go to work, as well as buy everyone a car at the bus stop.
I have fantasized that maybe, just maybe i MIGHT FUFILL PART OF HER DREAM.....we'll see :)

A side note, my dad would always see to it that my grandmother ( his mother-in law) was comfortable...but he never lavished her because he complained "she gives everything away"..........and I'm sure that made God smile!

Carole

-- June 2, 2008 1:48 PM


Sara wrote:

marcus;

I heard that many of the other Dinar sites are down due to hacking.. DDOS hacking.. whatever that means.

Sara.

-- June 2, 2008 2:15 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Carole:

You asked about the Vietnamese Dong. In my opinion, stay away from it. Currently the country is experiencing 20% inflation. The communist regime in Viet Nam will continue to keep the currency artifically low because of the inherent need to keep exports high.

The dollar showing signs of weekness against other currencies is still strong against the Dong. Stay away! Your skepticism about the Dinar would turn into outright depression if you invested in Dong.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 2, 2008 2:32 PM


Sara wrote:

Interesting comments and stories lately. :)
An enjoyable read.

Today I posted the words of John McCain where he said of Obama:

"He now says he intends to withdraw combat troops from Iraq -- one to two brigades per month until they are all removed. He will do so regardless of the conditions in Iraq, regardless of the consequences for our national security, regardless of Israel’s security, and in disregard of the best advice of our commanders on the ground. This course would surely result in a catastrophe," McCain continued, "If our troops are ordered to make a forced retreat, we risk all-out civil war, genocide, and a failed state in the heart of the Middle East. Al Qaeda terrorists would rejoice in the defeat of the United States." (end quote)

Because the consequences of electing this man are so dire for Iraq - an "all-out civil war, genocide, and a failed state" - and this would greatly affect our investment in the Dinar, I felt it worthwhile to note to you that I heard today that Obama has left his church, as it appears politically expedient to do so. Here is the article I found on it.. and a few of the comments on what it shows about him and his style of leadership:

===

Obama resigns from controversial church
May 31, 2008
Sen. Obama resigned from his controversial church, according to his campaign.

(CNN) — Barack Obama resigned Saturday from his Chicago church — where controversial sermons by his former pastor and other ministers had created repeated political headaches for the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination — his campaign confirmed.

The resignation comes days after the Rev. Michael Pfleger, a visiting Catholic priest, mocked Obama's Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, for crying in New Hampshire during the runup to the primary there.

Previously, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright — former pastor at Trinity United Church of Christ and Obama's minister for about 20 years — drew unwanted attention for the campaign when videos of several of his fiery sermons surfaced.

In them, Wright suggested the U.S. government may be responsible for the spread of AIDS in the black community and equated some American wartime activities to terrorism.

Obama has said he was not present for the controversial sermons by Wright or Pfleger and had condemned both — most recently saying he was "deeply disappointed" by Pfleger's "divisive, backward-looking rhetoric."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/31/obama-resigns-from-controversial-church/

Comments:

1) I didn't see the speech... by motherbelt

I didn't see the speech...I saw that it was coming on and thought oh, good grief, another speech! Can't this guy do anything without a speech!? And I decided that was a good time to go upstairs and vacuum. LOL

Did he really say he was "protecting" the church? From what, bad publicity? So they can continue their racist rants without outsiders looking on?

Oh, right, he's not doing it for his own benefit; it's just one more selfless sacrifice by the Obamessiah.

What a load of hogwash. It's about time he quit; but he should have said he decided that their cultural beliefs weren't his beliefs any more you know, what with wanting to bring people together and all....

If he were really honest, he would have pulled a Clinton and said "to preserve my viability within the system." LOL

2) Campaign of Cutting Losses by Gat New York

I have never seen a presidential candidate engaged in cutting losses as much as Obama has had to.

This guy has already thrown so many people under the bus - from his white grandmother to the entire congregation of his church - that he is going to need a fleet of buses because of how many more he will need to get rid of.

I agree that it will be a matter of time before he unloads his foreign policy advisors and eventually his wife.

The bottomline is that Mr. Hopey Changey lacks good judgement and has zero character. Scott McClellan would fit in perfectly in an Obama Administration.

3) No backbone or loyalty by Scrapiron

Just like McClellan he has proven to be a man without honor. I can see him running the country, something stinks badly in a town (church) so don't try to fix the stink, bury the entire town (church). That is leadership? I've thought since I heard of him that his only concern was the advancement of Islamic law in this country. Now he proves to be a phony Christian as many of us thought.

Old, Retired and glad of it.

4) He said something that will by ckc1227

He said something that will raise even more questions about his choice of this church in the first place. Some folks have tried to defend his choice by saying he only chose this church because of the political connections it would afford him. He categorically denied this when asked about it, stating that if that were his goal, there were bigger, better, more politically connected churches in Chicago he could have chosen. He said(or implied) he took offense to any such implication. So, Obama, if that isn't the reason, why did you choose a racist, hate-preaching church? Maybe some of us just refuse to see the forest for all the trees.

Also interesting is he isn't leaving the church for anything that goes on there, or anything being taught there, he's leaving because of all the media attention they are getting.

5) too late by paulnashtn

By resigning now Obama only draws more attention to why he stayed so close for so long and only NOW separates himself from a very racialy biased church and to the fact that he saw no need to separate himself for 20+ years

HOWEVER, if we now
criticize him for this past association we will be called racists

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb-staff/2008/05/31/obama-quits-his-church-open-thread

-- June 2, 2008 4:02 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Carole, if I were you, I'd take Rob N's advice. Stay away from the Vietnamese currency, with a ten foot pole. I haven't looked into it much, but as far as I know, Rob is correct, and they have a communistic system of some kind. I have a very low opinion of communist ideas, so for that reason alone, I wouldn't touch it.

That being said, I have had a number of Vietnamese friends over the years, and I have a very high opinion of the capability of those people. After all, these are the same people who fought toe to toe with America, in the Vietnamese war, a few decades ago. That's no small feat.

I have taken an interest in the plight of the so-called Boat People, who came to America, from Vietnam, a couple of decades ago. Culturally, they have very strong family values, and value education and hard work an awful lot. I've been close to a few of their families, in the past. They really push their kids to excel, in school, and want their kids to go to university.

As a result, you will find many Vietnamese kids, on the honour roll, when they attend high school. You will find a lot of them at university. I remember a friend of mine, who spent some time attending UCLA, and his joke, at the time was, the call letters of that university, really mean "United Caucasians Lost among Asians"

I mean no ill will or disrespect with that joke. The joke just illustrates a real phenomena: different cultures have different values, and lifestyles, and the fact is, the drive for success in that community is very high. Far higher than the overall average in the Caucasian community, in my opinion.

What that means, in the future, is that when the day comes, when a group of bright, Western-educated Vietnamese take over the government of that country, and modernize and educate the people, the vast majority of whom are now uneducated, then Vietnam will have a bright future.

Sometime around that point, if it happens in my lifetime, and an embracing of capitalism happens there, I would definitely invest in the future of that country. Having followed the modernization of countries like South Korea, now mainland China, and Taiwan, and Singapore, it's obvious to even the casual observer that, if these regions get good government, with good ideas, and leaders who embrace modern education and capitalism, the sky is the limit for these countries.

Many economists say mainland China, which is embracing capitalism with a vengeance, will overtake the United States, as the world's leading economic power, in about 20-25 years. I think Vietnam will also be very successful eventually, but certainly not with leadership embracing communistic ideas. That's just a recipe for disaster.

-- June 2, 2008 4:52 PM


Sara wrote:

Do you think the below comments of Mr. Ahmadinejad's are just empty words.. or a statement of his intents... what he is working toward?

Quote:

Ahmadinejad: Israel Will Soon Disappear
Monday, June 02, 2008

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad predicted that Muslims would uproot “satanic powers” and reaffirmed his prediction that the Jewish state will soon be wiped off the map, the Agence France-Presse news agency reported Monday.

"Today, the time for the fall of the satanic power of the United States has come and the countdown to the annihilation of the emperor of power and wealth has started," the hard-line president said.

Ahmadinejad is a devotee of the Mahdi, who Shiites believe disappeared more than a thousand years ago and will return to bring a new era of peace and harmony, the AFP reported.

Ahmadinejad has been forecasting the disappearance of Israel since taking office in 2005.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,361705,00.html

====end quote===

Empty words.. that forcast?
Or notation of intent?
Toward both the US.. and Israel.

-- June 2, 2008 4:52 PM


terry853 wrote:

Hey Timbits, where you at!! I put that call out a few times when you left the blog for awhile. I don't post much but today I think I will. I'm a Vancouver Island boy Tim at 52. LOL The questions about the other dinar sites is interesting. Every site I know of is down except this one for me at this time. June 2/08/1445 hrs PST time. Even the secondary sites. Most of which only a hundred or so people were even able to visit to get the address on the original site before it too was ddos's or what ever they call these attacks. Apparently most of the links to Iraq's banking system are not working too well. Make's a person go hmmm... Concerning your opinion about the entertainment value of this investment..I know that I have gotten more than my investment in entertainment out of it. God knows how many hours of observing. I work in the oil patch in northern BC and Alberta and have for the last 15 years. I had two consultants, the guys that run drill and service rigs tell me about their dinar investments long before I actually bought any. Both of these guys had spent a lot of time working overseas in the ME. When I finally researched it over two years ago it was a No Brainer for me. Only if they try to rip off the many many people that have invested time and money in Iraq will we lose. And I am not too worried about that. The money of a country is only worth what the people of the world think it is. JMHO

-- June 2, 2008 6:06 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Hi, Terry853,

I remember you. We were talking about Quebec separating from Canada. It didn't happen last time, but I keep hoping!!!lol. It's a running joke in my family, all Western Canadians. We got so sick of the whole debate, I'm sure you remember how it dragged on for years, that all my brothers and sisters, we all went out and got memberships, over the internet, in the Bloc Quebecois!! Imagine that. The kids thought it was quite funny. A bunch of Anglophone Western Canadian rednecks with memberships in the Bloc. We had a family gathering, everyone pulled out their membership, and we called it a Bloc Party. No ill will towards Quebecers, we were just honestly sick of the whole thing, and decided, hey, if you want to leave, I'll open the door, and give you ten bucks. Don't slam your....

Vancouver Island is a great place to be from. I spent a lot of time there. I've travelled the world, and I can tell you, the Island is still one of the top spots in the world, for my money. I've done the West Coast Trail a couple times, when I was a bit younger, and I've been salmon fishing in Tofino a few times.

One of my brothers spent some time in Tumbler, B.C., when there was some kind of mine up there, and I've wanted to get up there. Probably will this year. He keeps raving about what a great place it is, especially for outdoorsmen.

Yeh, you're right. The only way they could rip off the people, who invested in Iraq, is if the Iraqi government decided to rip us off. That's partly why I have always supported a continuing American military presence there. Nothing like a few soldiers around, to make everyone see the benefits of being "reasonable," as Tony Soprano might say.

I read an article in Conde Neste Magazine, last week about Kurdistan, and the oil boom there. They had pictures of Kurds standing in front of open pools of black oil. That's how much oil there is there. As an oilman, I'm sure you can appreciate the value of that. I see a movie in there somewhere? The Bagdhad Hillbillies?lol

"Listen to a story about a man named Ahmed
Poor Kurd barely kept his family fed,
Then one day he was shooting at Abdhul,
And out from the ground, came a bubblin' crude!
Oil that is. Kurdistan tea!"
(banjo music kicks in)

If you run into people from other sites, tell them to drop in here, whenever they want. Some of the best conversations have happened when there were new or different opinions. New voices are always welcome. We're pretty friendly here.

Kudos to the Dinar Admin for keeping this thing up and running.

Let's amuse ourselves while the paint dries.

JMHO? Clue me in.

-- June 2, 2008 9:36 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Sara,

Mr. A's words are not empty threats. I'm sure Washington takes them very seriously. One of my beefs against liberals is they can't seem to comprehend the evil side of reality. They lack moral imagination, or can only imagine good, not evil. Screwtape might have a thing or two to say about that, to his nephew....They think it couldn't possibly be, that someone would be that crazy, and evil. Perhaps Mr. A is simply misunderstood, or had a rough childhood, they might say. I hope cooler heads prevail eventually, in Iran, and I hope Mr. A gets the hook one way, or another.

I read an English version of Mein Kampf, when I was 21. It was the most disgusting and evil thing I have ever read. Ever since then, I take lunatics in high office, who say they want to murder people on the basis of their ethnicity or religion, very seriously.

I hope the American people have the good sense not to elect Obama. If there are enough good and sensible people, like yourself, expressing your opinion, then Mr. Obama will remain a senator. Keep doing, what you're doing.

I tried to convince my liberal sister the other day, that he was a bad choice. I didn't change her mind, but at least I made her think a bit.

I'd say the same thing, to anyone on this site. Whatever your beliefs, try to engage other people around you, at appropriate times, if the time and context is right, to question beliefs, and support and choices for political office. That's what it's all about.

-- June 2, 2008 9:52 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Details of Iraq's foreign debts

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki head a conference to drop Iraq's debts held on Thursday. The meeting aims to assess progress in implementing a plan approved last year to help rebuild the ailing economy of Iraq after five years of war. The United States is exercising pressure on the Sunni Arab governments to support Al-Maliki government through writing off the debts and open diplomatic missions.

The following are some details on Iraq's debts:

-- Over the last three years, Iraq was exempted from about $ 66.5 billion of the total foreign debts amounting to 120.2 billion dollars. With the participation of all members of the Paris Club, it dropped $ 42.3 billion including debts owed to Russia amounting to $ 12 billion dollars.

-- The Paris Club is an informal group of government creditors whose role is to help debtor countries to manage their debt.

-- A number of non-members of the Paris Club dropped a total of $ 8.2 billion of the debts, according to the Paris Club terms, while commercial creditors dropped $ 16 billion, according to the terms of the Paris Club as well.

-- Other members of the Club agreed to cancel 80 percent of Iraq's debts.

-- Estimates of the remaining debts:

$ 56.6 billion to 79.9 billion dollars include

Paris Club... 7.6 billion dollars.

Gulf Cooperation Council States... $ 32.4 billion to $ 55.4 billion.

Bilateral agreements outside the Paris Club... $ 646 million.

Other debts outside the Paris Club... $ 15.9 billion to $ 16.2 billion.

-- Debts dropped by some States:

United States... $ 4.1 billion

Japan... $ 6.8 billion

Germany... $ 5.6 billion

France... $ 5.1 billion

Russia... $ 12 billion

Italy... $ 2.4 billion

Bulgaria... $ 3.1 billion

Serbia, Slovenia and Bosnia... $ 2.2 billion

Romania... $ 2 billion

-- Saudi Arabia and Kuwait:

-- Last year, Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said his country will cancel 80 percent of more than $ 15 billion owed them by Iraq.

-- In September last Ixave Musca, President of Paris Club, said that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had not presented a report of Iraq's debts as done by the Paris Club in 2004.

-- The debt owed to Kuwait is about $ 15 billion.
(www.dinartrade.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:13 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq Kurd PM says ready for power-sharing in Kirkuk
Tue Jun 3, 2008 7:41am EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]

1 of 1Full Size
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Iraq's Kurds to make Baghdad new offer on oil law
7:41am EDT

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Learn to Trade with a FREE Guide.DUBAI (Reuters) - The prime minister of Iraq's Kurdish region said on Tuesday Kurds were willing to share power with Arabs in the city of Kirkuk -- a focus of rivalry between ethnic groups, largely because of its considerable oil wealth.

Kurds, a minority in Iraq as a whole, see Kirkuk as their ancient capital and had led the push for a referendum to establish control. Arabs encouraged to move to Kirkuk under Saddam Hussein want it to stay under Baghdad's control.

The dispute could threaten the relative stability in the largely Kurdish north, spared some of the ravages suffered by the rest of the country, but it also resonates beyond Iraqi borders. Turkey fears extension of Kurdish control to Kirkuk and surrounding oil fields would spawn a wealthy, and hostile, Kurdish state that could foment separatism in its southeast.

Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said the Kurdish regional government that controls the north was pushing for a solution over the status of Kirkuk but that this did not necessarily have to come in the form of referendums proposed so far.

The Kurdish parliament voted in December for a six-month delay in a proposed referendum, partly to give the United Nations time to come up with proposals for settling the issue.

"In Kirkuk, as Kurds, we are ready for power-sharing," Barzani told Reuters in Dubai.

"We are pushing for a solution, not especially a referendum. We have asked the U.N. to be technically involved because the situation is complicated," he said.

A referendum had been due by the end of 2007 to decide the settlement of multi-ethnic Kirkuk's fate. There were fears a referendum could stoke ethnic conflict by delivering power to one side or the other, or lead to disruptive movements of population as groups manoeuvre for influence.

The U.N. special representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, said in April a peaceful settlement must be found through a political formula and not a hastily organized referendum that could trigger violence.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:18 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Iraq's Kurds to make Baghdad new offer on oil law
Tue Jun 3, 2008 7:41am EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]

Related News
Iraq hits milestones on U.S. troop deaths and oil
01 Jun 2008
Hunger kills 28 Ugandans, forces some to eat rats
20 May 2008

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Learn to Trade with a FREE Guide.By John Irish

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iraq's Kurdish regional government will make fresh proposals to Baghdad in two weeks to iron out differences over the federal oil law, the region's prime minister said on Tuesday.

Disputes between the largely autonomous northern region of Kurdistan and Baghdad have delayed the law for over a year. Iraq needs billions of dollars to modernize the oil industry and raise output after decades of sanctions and war, but uncertainty over the law has stalled international investment.

"Very soon, about two weeks from now, we will start negotiations to finalize the agreement," Barzani told reporters at a news conference in Dubai.

The two sides will discuss a package of proposals covering the oil law, revenue sharing, the functions of the oil ministry and the national oil company, Barzani added.

"It is important for all of Iraq," he said. "Without that law oil companies cannot come into Iraq."

Earlier, the Kurdish region's top energy official Ashti Hawrami said he hoped Iraq's parliament would pass the law this year.

Barzani said he would also hold talks with the federal government over Baghdad's decision to halt oil exports to Austria's OMV and South Korea's SK Energy after the companies signed oil deals with the Kurdish region. Baghdad claims the deals were illegal.

"We don't think they have the right to stop these deals," Barzani said.

Baghdad controls Iraq's export pipelines, and until the Kurdish region reaches an agreement with the federal government it is unable to produce more oil.

The Kurdish region was ready to pump 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, Barzani said. Actual output is just a few thousand bpd for the local market.

Norwegian producer DNO is producing from wells in the Kurdish region and has built a pipeline to hook up to Iraq's main northern export route to Turkey, but has yet to receive an export license from Baghdad.

Barzani said that the region was not exporting oil without Baghdad's consent. "We are not selling oil to anybody," he said.

The Kurdish region aims to raise output to 1 million bpd in around five years.

Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves at around 115 billion barrels, although the country's deputy prime minister Barham Salih said in April reserves could be as much as 350 billion barrels.

Little exploration has been carried out in areas such as the Kurdish region. Hawrami estimated potential oil reserves in the region at around 45 billion barrels.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:20 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Shareef calls for national consensus to deal with agreement 03/06/2008 11:45:00

Baghdad (NINA)- MP Basim Shareef, of Fadheela bloc, 15 seats in parliament, has called political factions to reach a national consensus that allows dealing with the issue of the intended Iraqi-American long-term agreement
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:24 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

US says keen on success talks with Iraq on long-term deal

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 03 June 2008 (Kuwait News Agency (KUNA))
Print article Send to friend
US Iraq Envoy David Satterfield said here Monday Washington was very interested in bringing about success to negotiations with Baghdad for a long-term agreement.

Satterfield, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Special Advisor and Coordinator for Iraq, made the remarks during a meeting with Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari at the latter's office in Baghdad, a government statement said.

Satterfield said the US government was keen on bringing success to the negotiations with Iraq in order to reach an agreement guaranteeing the interests of both countries and helped safeguarding the security and stability of Iraq.

The agreement aimed at giving a legal cover for the US forces' in Iraq beyond 2008.

Satterfield and Zebari discussed the state-of-play of the negotiations and how it was important to clinch the deal, said the statement.

They have also discussed the Iraqi government's efforts to strengthen human rights.

Some Iraqi political parties are opposed to the agreement because they believed it undermined the sovereignty and independence of Iraq.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:26 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

For those of you invested in the ISX, you may find this interesting.
__________________________________________________________

Rules of writing off listed companies in the Iraqi market

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 June 2008 (Iraq Directory)
Print article Send to friend
The Iraqi Body of Securities determined the controls of writing off listed companies in the stock market. A statement by the body, "the company will be written off when the trading volume of its shares is no more than 5% annually out of the number of issued shares, and for two consecutive years." It added, "another control is that the company should submit to the body and the market its closing accounts for the latest fiscal year, certified by the comptroller, for the purpose of identifying its financial situation, assets, reserves and its performance, for use in making the decision of the write-off."

The statement said, "the request of the company's withdraw from the market must be a substantiated decision by the General Authority of the company, and with the consent of at least 51% of the total number of shares of the company." It also stated that the company's board must commit to find a buyer for the shares offered for sale by shareholders during the period of one month from the date of the declaration; the price is based on the trading price for the last month or the last trading price, whichever is higher. The company must pay its full financial obligations to the Iraqi body and market for securities.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:29 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

U.S.-Iraqi agreement captures Baghdad press

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 03 June 2008 (Voices of Iraq)
Print article Send to friend
A Baghdad-based newspaper gave prominence in its Tuesday issue to the long-term U.S.-Iraqi agreement, while another described a statement made by an Iraqi politician about linking Iraq's destiny to the future of foreign bodies as "unbalanced."

Al-Ittihad newspaper, the daily mouthpiece of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Iraqi President Jalal al-Talabani, wrote about the controversial agreement between Iraq and the United States. The author of the article, Abdul Hadi Mahdi, said that the agreement has been a point of contention between different parties and will therefore be submitted to the Iraqi parliament for discussion and vote.

The agreement governs the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq after 2008 and will not come into force without the approval of the Iraqi parliament, which has 275 members from five blocs, in addition to the Sadrist movement and al-Fadhila party.

The author said that the Iraqi public should be made aware of the articles of the agreement because it concerns them in the first place, calling on politicians to adopt transparency while revealing the content of the long-term accord to them.

Dar al-Salam, the daily mouthpiece of the Islamic Iraqi Party led by Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, commented in its editorial on a statement made by an Iraqi politician in which he warned against the eruption of sectarian wars if Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama becomes president. The politician claimed that Obama will pull out his country's troops from Iraq as soon as possible, which he said will result in a power vacuum that competitive Iraqi forces will try to fill with the use of force, the editorial wrote, quoting the head of the Iraqi National Congress (INC), Ahmed al-Chalabi, during a public assembly.

The editorial described al-Chalabi's statement as "improper," arguing that it is very insulting to say that Americans are the "safety valve" that prevents the outbreak of a civil war in Iraq.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 8:30 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Rob N,

Very encouraging news on debt relief. Quite an impressive list of countries releaving Iraq of debt. It shows a vote of confidence in Iraq's future by many governments. That gives me more confidence, as an investor. Just to state the obvious, countries don't forgive debt, unless there is something in it for them. Obviously some wheels are being greased, behind the scenes.

-- June 3, 2008 9:53 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim:

I would like to see the addition of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to that list. As it stands now they may not forgive Iraqi debt. If Iraq truly holds 356 billion barrels oil the position of the Saudis and Kuwaitis may be Iraq can afford to pay their respective debts.

One fact is certain, Iraq's future in the region looks bright. Baghdad and Arbil must find a compromise on the Hydro Carbon Law. In one of the articles I posted it seems the Kurds may bend; we will have to wait and see.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 3, 2008 10:10 AM


mattuk wrote:

Kurdish region hopes Iraq oil law to pass this year
Tue Jun 3, 2008 10:00am BST

DUBAI, June 3 (Reuters) - The Kurdistan regional government hopes Iraq's federal oil law will be passed this year and is working with Baghdad to iron out disputes that have delayed the legislation, the region's top energy official said on Tuesday.

"Iraq is ready to move on and is seriously trying to resolve these issues," the Kurdistan Regional Government's Minister for Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami told Reuters at an event in Dubai. "The federal law is needed to attract investment in Iraq."

Disputes between the largely autonomous region of Kurdistan and Baghdad have held back the law for over a year.

Hawrami estimated potential oil reserves in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq at around 45 billion barrels.

Current oil output was negligible, but the region aimed to boost production to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in five year, he said.

-- June 3, 2008 2:05 PM


marcus wrote:

hello all i have been following the dinar sence 2004 which i guess you can call me an old pro,can someone tell wht happen to iraqidinar forum can find it email me please johnsonm243ataol.com

-- June 3, 2008 2:10 PM


mattuk wrote:

DUBAI, June 3 (Reuters)

Damac Properties plans to begin work on a $15 billion development in Iraq's Kurdistan region this year aimed at Iraqi expatriates returning home, the United Arab Emirates developer said on Tuesday.

The project includes residential, commercial and hospitality buildings over 170 million square feet (15.8 million square metres) in Arbil, Damac said.

Damac Chairman Hussain Sajwani said the first phase of the project would cost $4.5 billion and the total cost of the project would amount to 55 billion dirhams ($14.98 billion).

"There are 5 million people in Kurdistan from different classes and there are many people from the rest of Iraq that would like to take residence or move to Kurdistan because there is more safety," Sajwani told a news conference on Tuesday.

Damac will also market the project in Europe and the Middle East to target Iraqis that left the country during the rule of former president Saddam Hussein, Sajwani said.

"They would like to come back and want luxurious residence to live in," he said.

Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of the region, said the project would help the local economy. Continued... "Tarin Hills development ... will also create jobs and support growth in related sectors such as tourism and hospitality," a company statement quoted Barzani as saying.

Work on the the development is due to begin by year-end, Sajwani said.

Damac, with projects in countries including Egypt, Qatar and Jordan, will eventually borrow funds from banks but will launch the project using Damac equity, Sajwani said.

Damac unit Damac Kuwaiti Holding (DAMK.KW: Quote, Profile, Research), which listed in Kuwait in April, has said it would use listing proceeds to finance Iraq projects.

A Damac spokesperson said the Kuwaiti unit would initially not be involved in the Kurdistan project.

Damac has a project portfolio of about $30 billion spread over seven countries, according to the statement.

-- June 3, 2008 2:19 PM


mattuk wrote:

Iraqi Dinar rose against the dollar by 20% in 16 months, says the Central bank governor 30/5/2008
The Iraqi dinar went up against the U.S. dollar by 20 percent in the past 16 months, said the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), attributing the rise to the bank’s policy.

“The improvement in the dinar was the result of the monetary policy adopted by the bank, which appreciated the dinar against the dollar in its daily auction throughout the past 16 months,” the governor, Sinaan al-Shabibi said during a Baghdad-based press conference on Sunday.
The exchange rate cannot be determined because it depends on several factors, mainly inflation, and the supply and demand for the dollar, al-Shabibi noted.
During the past three or four years, Iraq suffered from inflation that reached 65 percent, according to figures announced by the Central Agency for Statistics, he noted.
Al-Shabibi called on the Iraqi government to pay particular attention to economic growth by supporting the industrial and agricultural sectors.

Source: www.rebuild-iraq-expo.com

-- June 3, 2008 2:25 PM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq signs with contracts to build projects worth more than $63 billion 31/5/2008
Iraq has signed contracts worth more than $63 billion dollars with a large number of investment companies to implement reconstruction projects in Iraq.

The most prominent of these projects, according to head the Iraqi National Investment Authority Dr. Ahmed Ridha, are the establishment of the great port of Basra and the reconstruction of Baghdad International Airport in addition to building housing units and a new city with integrated housing which will be one of the largest modern cities in the Middle East.
“During the current year, we have introduced numerous investment projects, and many contracts were signed with different companies worldwide,” said Ridha pointing out that $12 billion is earmarked for the port of Basra and $17 billion for building the Baghdad international airport, in addition to setting up business and building hotels. He added that the projects also include the construction of 200 thousand housing units and hotels, plus a touristic city on the Corniche of Kufa in the Najaf governorate at a cost of $34 billion, in addition to the establishment of new Kut city at a cost of $650 million.
Ridha added that the second reconstruction conference held recently in Cairo was a turning point at rebuilding Iraq, as it witnessed signing big contracts to be invested in many provinces. The Iraqi delegation participating at conference has presented large investment projects planned in many Iraqi governorates and the feedback of investors and entrepreneurs was overwhelming. For example, C. Krupp has signed investment contracts with four Iraqi provinces (Diwaniyah, Anbar, Karbala and Nasiriyah).
On the other hand, the government of Iraq has agreed on signing with a German company to build five hospitals that cost $700million. On this occasion, Govt.’s spokesman Ali Dabbagh said that the Cabinet has decided giving reconstruction committee’s wide authorities to reduce time and measures at carrying out service projects and building hospitals.

Source: Same as above..

-- June 3, 2008 2:28 PM


Steve wrote:

For the real rate of inflation in Iraq check this site from the IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2008/052908.htm

-- June 3, 2008 5:41 PM


mattuk wrote:

Baghdad's al-Umma Park to receive visitors soon

Baghdad, 03 June 2008 (Voices of Iraq)

Baghdad's municipality on Tuesday said it has added the finishing touches to al-Umma Park, which will be ready to receive visitors in the coming few days after renovation works that lasted for six months.

"Al-Umma Park is now ready to receive visitors once again. Technical teams from al-Rasafa's department have renovated it and modernized its facilities," according to a statement released by the municipality and received by Aswat al-Iraq-Voices of Iraq- (VOI).

"A number of up-to-the-minute buildings have been set up inside the park, of which one will be allocated for holding cultural events and another used as an art exhibition," the statement noted.

Other renovation works have been carried out in the park and a new lighting system has been installed, it added.

The park was established in the early 1950s.

Source: www.iraqupdates.com

-- June 3, 2008 6:24 PM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq conducts huge technological project
03 June 2008 (Al-Sabaah)

Senior official and legislative delegation begins a visit to UK at next week to discuss political, economic and security developments with British and American officials as well as executing huge technological project throughout country by cooperation with Intel Company to provide PC set and Internet service for each Iraqi house.

Speaker's advisor, Intisar Alawi, said that the legislative delegation will leave country on June 6th to take part at workshop and holding talks with Intel to carry out this strategic project that named "PC and internet for each Iraqi house".

Alawi added that the project's aim to develop the technology's using at all fields, as the American company will provide all technical issues and selling the PCs and internet service at suitable prices and by installments for the Iraqis as the Iraqi Govt. will provide moral support.

Source: www.iraqupdates.com

-- June 3, 2008 6:37 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Steve, I think 5% inflation, in a country coming out of a war, is remarkable. A good sign.

-- June 3, 2008 6:58 PM


Carole wrote:

Rob and Tim,

Thanks for advice on the Dong. It is sooooo cheap, that an investment, while probably not a good idea, might just someday be one of those long shots....and another boat missed. I did buy some. It is so cheap that if my 1000.00 investment ever amounted to anything,,,I could practically by my own island! :)

Yes, Tim, Vancover,BC is quite a distinguishable place. Visited there in 1976. We were so impressed with the cleanliness, and orderliness of the people there. At the time it was explained to us that there is essentially no welfare as we now it here., Only the truly sick and elderly fraile get assistance., Others have to work for their entitlements.....like parks and city street cleaners, daycare workers, etc etc...

I still can remember seeing a long single file line of children, in uniforms walking in singh to their school bus stop.

AND OH THE GARDENS!!! Burschart( probably spelled wrong). Should be claimed as a wonder of the world.

We also visited Victoria Island, and took the children to sit in on Parliament. Long black robes and white long wigs worn like our forefathers. Very impressive. Don't know if it is still like that?

Carole

-- June 3, 2008 8:47 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole, Vancouver Island, it's still a gem, I'm sure. I haven't been to the Island for three years. I visited the sitting legislature in Victoria, 20 years ago. Don't know if they still do the old robes for ceremony. There is a bit of pomp and tradition federally, in Ottawa, a hangover from the British parliamentary procedures, but that's only for special occasions. It's probably the same in Victoria. I visited the Wax Museum near the Legislature in Victoria, which has wax replicas of famous people. I had my picture taken with "Ronald Reagan". Looks quite real, in the photo. The Gulf Island, which are small islands, nearby Vancouver Island, are even better, IMO, if you ever go back. You'll have to make a trip, when the Dinar kicks in....

-- June 3, 2008 11:47 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim:

I visited Ottawa several years ago and found it to be the cleanest and pristine city I have seen. Enjoyed the visit. I would recommend it to anyone visiting Canada.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 4, 2008 9:17 AM


Sara wrote:

Obama's Iraq Achilles Heel
By Dick Morris and Eileen McGann
FrontPageMagazine.com | Wednesday, June 04, 2008

John McCain needs to go on the offensive against Barack Obama over the Iraq war.

Polls tell us that his support for the Iraq invasion is one of voters' chief problems with McCain. Obama's chief credential, on the other hand, is his early, consistent opposition to the war.

Even with recent successes in Iraq, the war remains a heavy negative for McCain. But he can turn that around; here's how.

When it comes to Iraq, Obama is most comfortable living in the past. He wants to endlessly replay the day when he castigated the war as unnecessary and cooked up by White House political types and ideologues. He's far less comfortable talking about Iraq now, and downright antsy when it comes to discussing the future.

It's a lot easier to oppose a policy than to figure out how to replace it.

Countless Americans remain deeply pessimistic about Iraq; recent successes get judged in the light of past, false optimism.

But that also means voters have no problem envisioning disaster should we pull out our troops too soon - the possible slaughter of pro-American Iraqis, plus police and government officials; perhaps a takeover by Iran; a comeback by al Qaeda and other terrorist operatives.

The key is to force Obama to face these dangers - and explain what he'd do.

* He could deny the possibilities - and come off as a naive, wishful thinker; most unsuitable in a president.

* He could waffle - but then McCain would press. If Obama kept it up, voters would see indecision or evasion - evidence he's in over his his head on foreign policy and national security.

* He could say that he'd use diplomacy to handle the situation - but Americans are rightfully skeptical about the chances for a diplomatic resolution, especially if the United States pulls out its troops.

As Frederick the Great said, "diplomacy without force is like music without instruments." McCain could always press and ask, "What do you do if diplomacy fails?"

* Which brings us to the inevitable answer he must give: I will go back into Iraq with troops.

But that begs more questions: Would he keep adequate force in the region? If not, it could take six months of convoys to go back in. And isn't it inevitable that a new invasion would lead to many more casualties than just staying there?

This gambit narrows the real differences between McCain's and Obama's Iraq policies. Obama basically has to say that he'd keep our troops in the region. Voters can be excused for not seeing much difference between keeping them in Iraq and in Kuwait - especially when pulling them even back to Kuwait makes their return to Iraq seem almost inevitable.

You can't run for president looking in the rear-view mirror and reciting what you said six years ago. You have to offer a plan.

McCain has an easily understood position: Stay in and win. As Iraq improves and Obama is forced to admit the possibility - in Americans' view, almost the inevitability - of ongoing involvement, McCain's solution will appear as much the better one.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=265329AE-2F5E-4E74-86C5-B5FEB76098D7

-- June 4, 2008 11:24 AM


Sara wrote:

Note that:

Influential Shiite clerics in Iraq and neighbouring Iran oppose the deal and have called it a move against their religion. They have vowed to stage protests to force the Maliki government to roll back the deal which is expected to be concluded by the end of July.

Again, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said, ""We need this strategic agreement. It is an Iraqi need.." and it will be in line with the some 80 other pacts the US has with other countries.. but the opposition is truly just IRAN interfering with Iraqi politics.

===

Iraq studying foreign military pacts ahead of US deal
By Herve Bar AFP
Sunday, June 1, 2008

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Iraq has sent teams to four countries that have military pacts with the United States ahead of entering a similar deal, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said on Sunday.

"We dispatched four technical teams to Germany, Turkey, South Korea and Japan to see how they did in these countries," Zebari told reporters on the sidelines of a visit by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner.

Zebari said they expected a political consensus in Iraq before finalising the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) to legitimise US operations in Iraq beyond 2008 when the UN resolution governing their presence expires.

The government in a separate statement said that it was too early to say when the deal could be finalised.

"It is too early to talk about dates or the terms to be agreed upon," the statement said, adding that Baghdad would not accept any agreement that undermined its sovereignty.

Iraq's national security council has already asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to ensure that any deal does not compromise national security.

Zebari said the situation in Iraq was different to other countries with which Washington had military agreements because of continuing military operations.

"There are still ongoing operations by the US army," he said. "We need this strategic agreement. It is an Iraqi need, but it will not be open-ended."

He added that Baghdad had assured its neighbours that the deal will not go against their national interests. "There is no hidden agenda," he added.

Influential Shiite clerics in Iraq and neighbouring Iran oppose the deal and have called it a move against their religion.

They have vowed to stage protests to force the Maliki government to roll back the deal which is expected to be concluded by the end of July.

Zebari said negotiations with Washington were still under way and the protests in Iraq only demonstrated the nature of democracy. He said a final draft will be placed before parliament.

The Bush administration has said that any deal with Iraq would be similar to more than 80 such pacts Washington has with other nations around the world governing the scope of US operations and providing protection for its soldiers.

It says the pact will not specify troop levels, establish permanent bases in Iraq or tie the next president's hands.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080601/tpl-iraq-unrest-us-politics-military-b04fc5e.html

-- June 4, 2008 11:35 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq: US military says Shiite 'special groups' leader surrenders in US raid south of Baghdad
AP/June 3, 2008

BAGHDAD: The U.S. military says it has captured a suspected Shiite militia leader south of Baghdad.

A statement says the suspect and five associates were detained Tuesday in Kut, about 160 kilometers (100 miles) southeast of the Iraqi capital.

The U.S. military refers to such fighters as members of Iranian-backed "special groups" who are defying a cease-fire order by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Many of them are believed to have fled recent fighting in Baghdad's Shiite militia stronghold of Sadr City.

The statement says U.S. troops raided a home in Kut on Tuesday and captured the top suspect, who has allegedly been involved in the murder of Iraqis and U.S. soldiers. He surrendered without incident.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/03/africa/ME-GEN-Iraq-Raids.php

-- June 4, 2008 11:39 AM


Sara wrote:

Afghan insurgents 'on brink of defeat'
By Thomas Harding in Lashkar Gah
02/06/2008
Missions by special forces and air strikes by unmanned drones have "decapitated" the Taliban and brought the war in Afghanistan to a "tipping point", the commander of British forces has said.
CHRISTOPHER PLEDGER

The new "precise, surgical" tactics have killed scores of insurgent leaders and made it extremely difficult for Pakistan-based Taliban leaders to prosecute the campaign, according to Brig Mark Carleton-Smith.

In the past two years an estimated 7,000 Taliban have been killed, the majority in southern and eastern Afghanistan. But it is the "very effective targeted decapitation operations" that have removed "several echelons of commanders".

This in turn has left the insurgents on the brink of defeat, the head of Task Force Helmand said.

"The Taliban are much weaker," he said from 16 Air Assault Brigade headquarters in Lashkar Gah.

"The tide is clearly ebbing not flowing for them. Their chain of command is disrupted and they are short of weapons and ammunition."

Last year's killing of Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban chief, most likely by the Special Boat Service, was "a seminal moment in dislocating" their operation in southern Afghanistan, said Brig Carleton-Smith, 44, who has extensive operational experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and has commanded elite Army troops.

Taliban fighters are apparently becoming increasingly unpopular in Helmand, where they are reliant on the local population for food and water.

They have also been subjected to strikes by the RAF's American-made Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle and the guided Royal Artillery missile system, which have both proved a major battlefield success.

"I can therefore judge the Taliban insurgency a failure at the moment," said Brig Carleton-Smith. "We have reached the tipping point."

The number of Afghans involved in the insurgency has also fallen, with increasing numbers of Pakistanis, Chechens, Uzbeks and Arabs found dead on the battlefield.

However, with the shortage of helicopters still a problem, most movement is by road and Brig Carleton-Smith warned that British forces must prepare for an increasingly Iraq-style insurgency as the Taliban modified its tactics from pitched battles to ambushes and roadside bombs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/frontline/2062440/Afghanistan%27s-Taliban-insurgents-%27on-brink-of-defeat%27.html

-- June 4, 2008 11:44 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

The war in Afghanistan hit home to me the other day, in a personal way. My wife and I were driving, in a neighborhood we hadn't been in, much. It's a quiet, typical suburban neighborhood, with mothers pushing strollers along, I noticed there were bunch of yellow ribbons, tied to trees in the neighborhood. I thought, it must be, a local boy was over there, in Afghanistan.

Then, later that day, we went to a high school grad ceremony, for my neice. As part of the formal dinner, there was a video montage, on a big movie screen at the front of the auditorium, that the kids put together, about the school year. The video was mostly about the kids and the teachers, and what they had done during the year. Then a soldier's image came up, on the screen. He looked familiar. I remembered, his picture had been in the local paper. He was a local boy. He was killed in a roadside bomb. I guess he had been a grad of the same school, about 30 years ago.

What lay ahead for the fresh faced kids, just graduated?

As we left the grad, and drove home, I noticed a magnetic sticker, shaped like a ribbon, that someone had put on the back of his truck. "Support the troops" it said. Good idea. They're popular in Calgary.

Let's not forget that everytime you see something on the news, with soldiers in harm's way, that there is a family somewhere, who's thinking about someone, they hope will return safely.

-- June 4, 2008 1:24 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq pays Russian company $110m to resume work Yousfiyya Electrical Station

Iraq's ministerial council has agreed to pay $110m to the Russian company that was working on the Yousfiyya Electrical Station to cover losses the company incurred after the abandoned site was looted when its workers left in 2003.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 4, 2008 1:37 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

US 'not to launch attacks from Iraq'
By Basil Adas

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 04 June 2008 (Gulf News)
Print article Send to friend
The United States on Tuesday denied reports that a proposed Iraqi-American security pact would give American forces the right to use Iraqi territory to strike other countries.

The long-term Status of Forces Agreement appears to have led to a rare discord between Baghdad and Washington over several controversial articles, senior Iraqi military sources have told Gulf News on Tuesday.

Among them two that would "give the US the right to strike from within Iraqi territory, any country it considers a threat to its national security," and allow American forces to set up several permanent military bases in Iraq, the sources said.

The proposed pact would also place Iraqi security institutions such as Defence, Interior and National Security ministries, as well as armament contracts, under American supervision for ten years, added the sources.

However, a US spokesperson in Baghdad said the agreement was still being negotiated. "Texts are very much in flux week by week, negotiating session by negotiating session, and relative positions will continue to evolve over coming sessions," said Mirembe Nantongo, spokesperson and Deputy Public Affairs Counsellor at the US Embassy in Baghdad in a statement sent to Gulf News on Tuesday night.

The statement denied any US plan to set up "permanent bases in Iraq" or to seek the right to use Iraqi territory to attack other countries.

"The agreement currently under negotiation between the US and Iraq will explicitly state (1) that the US does not desire and will not seek permanent bases in Iraq and (2) that US forces in Iraq are focused on supporting the Iraqi government and will not be used for offensive operations against any of Iraq's neighbours," Nantongo told Gulf News.

Iraqi military sources nevertheless confirmed that the American army is in the process of completing the building of the military facilities and runways for the permanent bases.

Those points, among other disputed articles, the sources added, have raised eyebrows within the government of Nouri Al Maliki and the military establishment.

Government spokesman Ali Al Dabbagh said the cabinet discussed the proposed agreement, which is scheduled to be concluded by next month and insisted that Iraq's national interests must be protected.

"A joint vision on this issue is yet to be achieved between the two sides, and ... the Iraqi side has a different vision, and it will not undercut or be negligent towards Iraqis' rights and sovereignty," he was quoted by AFP as saying.

Iraqi analysts say the second item of the agreement, which permits American forces on Iraqi territories to launch military attacks against any country the US considers a threat is "addressed primarily to Iran and Syria."

Al Maliki and US President George W. Bush signed a non-binding statement of principles in November for the negotiations, with the aim of concluding a pact by the end of July.

The proposed agreement is aimed at giving a legal basis the 150,000 US troops deployed in Iraq after the December 31 expiry of a UN mandate defining their current status.

The proposed pact has already come under fire from religious and political leaders both in Iraq and in neighbouring Iran with anti-American cleric Moqtada Al Sadr vowing to keeping up protests until the deal is scrapped.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Iraq "needs this strategic agreement, but it will not be open-ended."

He added that Baghdad had assured its neighbours that the deal will not go against their national interests. "There is no hidden agenda," he said.

Other main points of the pact

According to London-based Al Hayat newspaper:

The US would get

- Control Iraq space up to 29,000 feet.
- Open-ended concessions on land, skies and waters of Iraq.
- The right to define terrorist activities.
- The right to arrest and detain an Iraq considered a threat to the American troops.
- The right to launch anti-terror operations without a pre-approval from the Iraqi government.
- Legal protection from prosecution to US forces and security companies.

The Iraqi Government insists on:

- Its total sovereignty over Iraqi territory.
- Giving no concessions to US forces with prior approval by Iraqi authorities.
- Setting up temporary bases the status of which to be review annually.
- Prior Iraqi approval of any US military operation.
- Iraqi authorisation for the arrest and detention of Iraqi citizens.
- Legal protection for US forces during military operations only.
- Limited rights for the US in the Iraqi skies.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 4, 2008 1:48 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Fallon Breaks Silence on His Dissent
June 04, 2008
International Herald Tribune
His friends call him Fox, and for years William Fallon was considered one of America's most successful four-star admirals, serving most recently as the commander of military operations in the territory stretching from the Horn of Africa across Central Asia.

Now, the 63-year-old former aviator is struggling with reinvention, nudged into early retirement in March after a 40-year naval career because of frank talk that left the perception that he was disloyal to his commander in chief.

Breaking his silence since his departure in an hourlong interview, Fallon said he had felt the pressure building for several months.

He had, after all, taken public positions favoring diplomacy over force in Iran, greater troop withdrawals from Iraq than officially planned and more high-level attention to Afghanistan.

But the catalyst for his departure was not a policy disagreement with the White House, he said, but an article in Esquire magazine earlier this year that portrayed him as the man standing between President George W. Bush and war against Iran.

If the admiral's comments had been kept behind the closed doors of the White House and the Pentagon, he might have survived. The problem was that in the highly hierarchical world of the military, in which the cardinal rule is to salute - not break ranks with - the president, his dissent simply was too public.

The admiral claims not to have been misquoted, but rather misunderstood.

"There was a huge perception that I was publicly at odds with the president, which was not true," he said. "I had serious concerns that my subordinates - my Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines - had that perception.

"It put me in a difficult position. I felt very uncomfortable."

But he conceded that he had shaken the Central Command, which is based in Tampa, Florida, after he arrived in March 2007, both by making crystal clear that he, and not the battlefield commanders, was in charge and by making changes that rankled people, both in and out of the military.

His management style was criticized; his on-the-record comments about policy raised eyebrows.

Some of the issues were petty. Others were more substantive, like an ambitious job-reduction effort aimed at slashing the command's 3,400 personnel and assigning his own people to review others' decisions.

"I wanted us to get focused on Iraq and Afghanistan at a high level, not just rubber-stamping every request, or whatever that was coming out of Baghdad," he said. Acknowledging an impatient streak, he added, "this was not the time to be sitting around clinking teacups."

He was not helped by the fact that he was a navy man with overall responsibility over two wars involving American ground troops, and a commander with a reputation for liberal leanings in a hawkish administration.

As commander of the Pacific Command between 2005 and 2007, he was criticized by conservatives for cozying up to China at a time when that country was rapidly modernizing its armed forces. During his one-year tenure as head of the Central Command, he proposed a navy- to-navy relationship with Iran as a way to begin a sustained dialogue with the country after nearly three decades without diplomatic relations, Bush administration officials said, speaking anonymously according to normal diplomatic rules.

The proposal was not revolutionary; other commanders had floated such an idea before. But it was quickly rejected by the White House as rewarding Tehran, the officials said.

Fallon declined to discuss the initiative, although he acknowledges that he favors dialogue and patience, not war, with Iran, and that the navy could provide a way to begin the process.

"In the conduct of daily business we routinely have excellent communications with the Iranian Navy," he said. "When the conditions are right it might be a reasonable way of interaction - to build on existing maritime communications."

Even now, he defends his public statements on Iran that stress diplomacy over the use of force. "People tend to look at things in black and white - we're going to love Iran or attack Iran," he said. "That is a very simplistic way to approach a complex problem."

He said he found it impossible to convince people that stories about disputes with David Petraeus, the four-star U.S. Army general who was commander in Iraq and replaced him at the Central Command when he retired, were overblown. "He's a smart guy," Fallon said.

But then, he acknowledged that there had been differences, and did not contradict reports that at one point Petraeus had wanted as many troops on the ground in Iraq as possible, while he had favored substantial troop reductions.

"Did we agree on everything? No," he said of their relationship. "Did he want everything? Yes. And that's just the way it is. But we talked just about every day." Fallon added, "He's an army guy, a bit more rigid, less risk."

As the operational commander with day-to-day responsibilities for Iraq, Petraeus enjoyed a direct line of communication with the White House, which Fallon, the strategic overseer, did not. So there was also the pecking-order problem. Fallon's departure from the military was so abrupt that he veers between the present and past in discussing his old job.

"I was Petraeus's boss," he said. "I asked a lot of questions, which is my nature. And the answers better match up with what I have seen."

Asked about a Washington newspaper column that said he was squeezed out because he was "rigid" and "overbearing," he replied, "I don't tolerate fools. I challenge every briefing and pitch. If people present me with only one solution to the problem, I'm the type to reject it immediately."

This is, he said, "a no-nonsense business. I'm not getting paid to be a nice guy."

Fallon began his military career through the navy's Reserve Officer Training Program, which he joined to pay his way through Villanova University in Philadelphia. He flew combat missions during the Vietnam War, commanded a carrier air wing in the 1991 Gulf war and later led the naval battle group supporting NATO operations in Bosnia. Along the way he developed diplomatic skills, taking the unusual step in 2001, for example, of apologizing to Japan and to the relatives of those killed in the accidental sinking of a Japanese fishing trawler by a U.S. submarine.

The rawness of his transition to private life was revealed in his public coming out as the keynote speaker at a terrorism conference at New York University's Center on Law and Security in Florence in May.

"I have to confess to - how should I put this - a bit of uncertainty in my own future, because until a few weeks ago I had things pretty orderly in front of me," he said. But those in the audience who said they were expecting insider-tells-all revelations about the terrorist threat came away disappointed.

In the interview, he declined to criticize directly current policies, although he urged the next administration to focus more on strategic planning.

"We need to have a well thought-out game plan for engagement in the world that we adjust regularly and that has some system of checks and balances built into it," he said. He is thinking about writing a book, but jokes that such a project could pose a challenge. In his Catholic high school in Camden, New Jersey, he wanted to take third-year-Latin. So he never learned how to type.
(www.military.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 4, 2008 1:51 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Where Eagles Dare
June 02, 2008
Army News Service|by Spc. Michael Howard
TIKRIT, Iraq - After months of training, American and Iraqi Special Forces, and American CH-47 Chinook and AH-64 Apache crews all participated in a recent mission here to capture high-value targets in northern Iraq as part of Operation Santa Monica.

The Combat Aviation Brigade, 1st Infantry Division's air assault went off seamlessly, according to pilots, who say that any mission involving a Chinook is especially risky given the number of people on the aircraft.

The air assault began at 5 p.m, April 6. The Chinook pilots, after leaving their final brief, turned around and updated their crew chiefs, who were busy preflighting the bird.

Less than 10 percent of the brigade's aircraft are Chinooks, which is the only helicopter trhat can provide massive combat power. It has 30 troops to a Black Hawk's 10. So with few birds and a lot of requests, air assaults are pretty routine for the pilots of the 2nd General Support Aviation Battalion, 1st Aviation Regiment, said Chief Warrant Officer 2 Joshua Locke, one of the CH-47 pilots who participated in the mission.

At 7:30 p.m., pilots received the word and lifted into the air, test-firing their weapons at a nearby range before heading to Forward Operating Base Warrior to refuel with the aid of fuelers equipped with night-vision goggles.

Night is a Chinook's best friend, according to pilots.

If insurgents hit a Chinook it would be catastrophic, so to minimize the risk to pilots and passengers alike, "we use every available asset. Number one, we use the cloak of darkness. Number two, we do extensive route planning to ensure we avoid any areas where (the enemy) may have an advantage," said Locke. "We also use escorts to defend us from attacks. We have the Longbows who stay with us for these deep infiltrations, or any scout-weapons teams that might be there. So we have quite a few factors working in our favor."

Flying in darkness requires the use of NVGs, which in turn requires a highly trained and skilled pilot. According to Locke, pilots' depth perceptions are off with the goggles, and they have no peripheral vision so their apparent rate of closure and ground speed are in error.

Just before 11 p.m., the Chinooks arrived at remote FOB Gabe to find U.S. Special Forces Soldiers and Iraqi Special Operation Forces soldiers waiting in the darkness.

The Americans spent months training with the Iraqi SFO. First, the troops practice rushing on and off the aircraft, first with lights, then without. The American SF were equipped with NVGs, the Iraqis only with head-mounted flashlights, which left them dependent on illumination rounds from the Apaches overhead.

As the Chinooks approached the landing zone in an Iraqi village, the tension in the air was palpable among Americans and Iraqis alike. The ramp at the rear closed partway to minimize the dust the rotors kick up. The Chinook touched the ground lightly, the ramp fell and the SF Soldiers rushed out. Within 30 seconds, the aircraft was airborne again, returning to FOB Warrior until they were needed for extraction.

Long before the infantry-laden Chinooks arrived with their gun-toting payloads, Apaches, 2-man attack and reconnaissance helicopters with state-of-the-art surveillance equipment, were hovering above the village, so high the Iraqis couldn't see or hear them at all. They provided real-time data to mission control in the rear, who fed information to the Chinook pilots as they approached.

The Apaches also remained overhead for the rest of the mission, providing a feed for the CABs tactical operations center, and standing by in case the ground forces needed direct air support.

Downtime at FOB Warrior was cut short when the Chinook pilots received the call from the ground commander: The SF finished early, the mission was complete, and they were ready for extraction. Ten minutes later, the rotors were turning and the lights were off as the crew lifted off the helipad and sped toward the extraction point.

When the Chinook arrived, the Apaches fired the illumination rockets and the it touched down, a little harder this time. The SF rushed aboard the Chinook, their high-value targets alive and in-hand.

"I think it went very smoothly," said Spc. Jonathan M. Gieser, a CH-47 crew chief who participated in the mission. "We had a perfect takeoff, perfect landing, we made it to the pickup zone, we rehearsed the infiltration and exfiltration. We were able to take off from there, make it to the landing zone without incident. Everything went smoothly, no problems with the aircraft, no problems with people getting off. I understand that they moved through the town ahead of schedule, captured their targets, and reboarded the aircraft without incident. It was a perfect night."

(Spc. Michael Howard serves with the Combat Aviation Brigade, 1st Infantry Division Public Affairs Office.)
(www.military.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 4, 2008 1:52 PM


tim bitts wrote:

that last post should have read, graduated from the high school, 12 years ago.

-- June 4, 2008 4:27 PM


Sara wrote:

Now the gloves start coming off.
Iran's interest is purely for its own sake, and against Iraq:

Supporters believe the deal would help assure Iraq's Arab neighbors, notably Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, that Iraq's Shiite-led government would not become a satellite of Shiite-dominated Iran as American military role here fades.

But Iran WANTS a satellite.. and is now strenuously objecting, and even threatening Iraq that this "will not be allowed." Isn't it up to IRAQ and their people to decide, not IRAN? Threatening that "the Islamic nation" (which, of course, includes IRAN) will NOT allow this.. you get the impression that sovereign Iraqi politics are being dictated TO by Iran in this article.

==

Iran: U.S. security deal will enslave Iraqis
Former president says "Islamic world" will stop proposal as 'danger' to region
AP/ June. 4, 2008

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - One of Iran's most powerful politicians vowed Wednesday that "the Islamic world" will stop a long-term security agreement that is being negotiated by the U.S. and Iraq.

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani told a gathering of Muslim figures in Mecca that the United States is trying to "enslave" Iraqis through the deal. This comments were the strongest and most high-level public condemnations of the potential security deal by an Iranian official.

"This will not happen," the former president of Iran said, "The Iraqi people, the Iraqi government and the Islamic nation will not allow it."

Rafsanjani said the U.S. "occupation of Iraq represents a danger to all nations of the region" and warned that the security deal would create a "permanent occupation." Rafsanjani heads two of the country's most powerful clerical governing bodies, the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts.

Iran's previous criticism of the security agreement has largely been in private talks with Iraqi officials.

The deal, which the Iraqis and Americans hope to finish in midsummer, would establish a long-term security relationship between Iraq and the United States, and a parallel agreement would provide a legal basis to keep U.S. troops in Iraq after the U.N. mandate expires at the end of the year.

Supporters believe the deal would help assure Iraq's Arab neighbors, notably Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, that Iraq's Shiite-led government would not become a satellite of Shiite-dominated Iran as American military role here fades.

But public critics in Iraq worry the deal will lock in American military, economic and political domination of the country. Some Iraqi politicians have attacked the deal, especially those loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, the anti-American cleric whose militiamen fought U.S. and Iraqi troops in Baghdad until a May truce ended seven weeks of fighting.

The agreement is likely to be among the issues discussed this weekend when Iraq's Shiite prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, is due to visit Iran — his second trip there in a year. Ahead of the visit, his party sought to calm worries by insisting that the deal would not allow foreign troops to use Iraq as a ground to invade another country — a reference to Iranian fears of a U.S. attack.

Rafsanjani was speaking at a Saudi-sponsored conference aimed at unifying Muslim voices before an interfaith dialogue that Saudi King Abdullah wants to launch with Christian and Jewish religious figures.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24967046/

-- June 4, 2008 4:35 PM


Steve wrote:

All,
For a lot of good info from the, US Army Corps of Engineers, Gulf Region Division
http://www.grd.org.usace.army.mil Lots of info from the rebuilding projets in 2007 and 2008 plus there is a few on Utube as well and a lot of good pictures, all the gear that should be on the TV news but never is, I have sent some to my local paper and they do not want to know, Iraq is that still going on,well yea dum dum.
Steve.

-- June 4, 2008 10:00 PM


Steve wrote:

All, That should be, http://www.grd.usace.army.mil/index.asp
Steve.

-- June 4, 2008 10:04 PM


Paul wrote:

Hi All,

I am planning a trip to Geneva Switzerland soon. Does anyone know of a Bank that sells Iraqi Dinars there? Thanks.

-- June 5, 2008 10:23 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

UAE to name Iraq envoy soon

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Thursday , 05 /06 /2008 Time 5:59:48




Baghdad, Jun 5, (VOI) – United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed al-Nahyan on Thursday revealed his country's plans to reopen its embassy in Iraq and to name an ambassador in the coming few days.


"Talks are underway between the United Arab Emirates and the Iraqi government to name its ambassador to Iraq and reopen its embassy…," Sheikh al-Nahyan said during a joint press conference with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zibari in the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
"We look forward to having Iraq as an active member in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)," Sheikh al-Nahyan added, praising the Iraqi government for what he described as its national reconciliation and security efforts.
Reiterating his country's willingness to maintain sound relations with Iraq, the minister said that the issue of Iraqi debts will be dealt with in a timely, efficient and effective manner.
On Thursday morning, Sheikh al-Nahyan arrived in an unannounced visited to the Iraqi capital and discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki means of boosting diplomatic relations between the two countries.
The visit is the first by a United Arab Emirates minister to Iraq since the collapse of the former regime in 2003.
(www.aswataliraq.info)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:00 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

While oil is important to the economic development of Iraq both the industrial and agriculture sectors must come on line. It looks as though Iraq is beginning to recognize agriculture is also important.
__________________________________________________________

Economy




100 million Euros for agricultural equipment- ministry

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Thursday , 05 /06 /2008 Time 3:31:09




Baghdad, Jun 4, (VOI) – The Iraqi Ministry of Finance will allocate the first part of an Italian loan to the purchase of agricultural equipment and machinery for Iraqi farmers and peasants, an official statement said on Wednesday.

The decision was taken during talks between the minister of finance, Baqer Jabr al-Zubeidi and the Italian ambassador to Iraq, Maurizio Milani, according to a statement released by the Iraqi cabinet's national media center and received by Aswat al-Iraq­ - Voices of Iraq - (VOI), quoting the Iraqi minister.
The Iraqi government reiterated its keenness to develop mutual relations in all fields with Italy, which will help boost its infrastructure and industry, the statement noted.
"The Iraqi minister said it is important to benefit from the Italian sophisticated agricultural system, which he said will help steer the Iraqi agricultural sector," the statement added.
"The first part of the loan, 100 million euros, will be allocated for the purchase of agricultural machinery and equipment, as part of the Iraqi prime minister's initiative to develop the agricultural situation in the country and achieve a high level of self-sufficiency," it said.
Italy has given Iraq a €400-million loan for investment in agricultural projects.
(www.aswataliraq.info)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:05 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Post-War Bounce To Continue Given Strong Oil Growth

Economy

BMI View: Iraq's post-war bounce looks set to continue over the coming years, as real GDP grows by an average 8.5% annually.
(www.meamonitor.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:13 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Gradual Appreciation Expected As Anti-Inflationary Tool

Economy

We expect the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) to maintain its strategy of allowing gradual appreciation of the dinar, while keeping interest rates generally stable.
(www.memonitor.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:14 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Making sense of the netherworld of Big Oil
BY MATEIN KHALID (At Home)

4 June 2008


THE late Texan oil billionaire J. Paul Getty once observed that while the meek may inherit the earth, they rarely inherit its mineral rights. As an investor in emerging markets oil and gas deals, I have often been stunned by the sheer power and influence wielded by a handful of the world's oil traders on governments, financial markets and international banks.


From the futures exchange pits of New York and London to the spot markets of Rotterdam and Singapore, oil traders are the real culprits behind $135 crude and the oil bubble. While they are obsessively secretive for obvious reasons, I am convinced a handful of oil traders in London, Geneva, Moscow and the Gulf are the real powerbrokers of black gold, the priesthood of history's most fabulous geological lottery, not the governments who own oil reserves, not the refineries and utilities in the planets industrial constellation, not the corporate super majors like Exxon, Total, BP, Chevron, Shell and Conoco the fabled Seven Sisters of Big Oil.

It is impossible to understand the world of international oil, gas and metal trading without a knowledge of the extraordinary career and continuing influence of the legendary Marc Rich, quite possibly the most powerful and oil trader of all time. Rich was born a Belgian Jew in prewar Antwerp until his family escaped the Nazis and settled in New York, where he joined the commodities firm Phibro as a Lehrling (apprentice).

Marc Rich, known as the Matador in the trade for his killer instinct, is a character straight out of a James Bond movie. He made billions of dollars in the esoteric area of "combat zone trading", cutting oil deals with odious regimes such as Khomeini's Iran, Saddam's Iraq, Gaddafi's Libya, Castro's Cuba and apartheid South Africa that major oil companies or refiners dared not touch at the time.

Operating from a lakeside villa on Lake Lucerne, with his offices in the Swiss canton of Zug reputedly protected by ex-SAS commandos, with his palaces in Marbella and St Moritz filled with Chagall, Picasso and Matisse masterpieces, ghost companies in Lichtenstein, Panama and Gibraltar, his billion dollar oil concessions from African dictators and insider contacts in the inner sanctums of both the Kremlin and the White House, both the Israeli Knesset and the Shia theocracy of Qom, Marc Rich is one of world finance's authentic masters of the universe, an ultra-secretive eminence grise of black gold and the metals business who also happens to be one of Switzerland's leading tax payers and philanthropists. At Phibro, Rich's first coup came during the 1974 Arab oil embargo, when he managed to lift Iranian crude cargoes from the terminal at Kharg Island and spot charter tankers to Britain and Holland, both countries boycotted by Saudi Arabia's King Faisal and the Gulf countries for their open support for Israel during the October 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Rich's 'wasta' in Iran allegedly reached right into the Shah's Niavaran palace in Teheran and his associates in oil deals included the sons of the head of SAVAK, the Pahlavi dynasty's notoriously brutal secret police.

But ideology was irrelevant to Marc Rich. When the Shah lost his Peacock Throne, the Matador and the Admiral (Rich's sidekick Pincus Green, whose specialty was complex tanker chartering and logistics deals) ingratiated themselves with Ayatollah Khomeini's entourage even while US diplomats were held hostage during the embassy seizure in Iran.

In 1983, Marc Rich and Pinky Green fled to Switzerland to avoid facing a 300-year jail sentence for tax evasion and sanctions busting order the Trading With the Enemy Act. They settled in the Swiss canton of Zug where they remained until President Clinton pardoned Rich on his last day in office. In the oil trading game money not only talks, it positively screams at a decibel count that rattles even the Oval Office.

Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent UN oil for Food Programme, the discovery of oil and gas in Washington's pariah states as Sudan and Burma, the collapse of the USSR and the emergence of local KGB/Communist Party apparatchiks as the masters of new energy kingdoms in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the extraterritorial application of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act created an invaluable niche for a handful of billionaire oil traders in London, Geneva and Houston since the 1990's.

Geopolitics, UN sanctions, payoffs into secret Swiss bank accounts, complex oil tanker charters where title to the cargo changed twelve time from a loading terminal in the Gulf or the Black Sea to a refiner in Japan or the Caribbean, made billions of dollars for the oil traders in Geneva, Zug and Lugano.

In the 1990s, Barzan Al Takriti, Saddam's cousin and the Iraqi ambassador to (irony of irones) the UN Palais de Nations in Geneva, handled the sweetheat deals from SOMO (Iraqi's state oil marketing organisation) that enabled the President of Iraq to sell oil destinated to buy milk for the children of Baghdad under the UN sanctions regime to traders like the Matador or Bayoil in Texas, while skimming $10 billion to keep his Baathist dictatorship afloat. Iraqi oil was also smuggled via tankers from the oilfields of Kirkuk across Kurdistan and eastern Anatolia to the loading terminals of Ceyhan, where crude cargos were laundered into legitimate oil supply deals with East coast refiners.

International oil trading scandals even changed the course of history. France's Elf Aquitaine was implicated in a massive payoff scandal in Gabon whose shock waves reached the Chirac Elysee Palace. In Russia, the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky's overtures to sell a stake in Yukos to Exxon, his attempt to invite Henry Kissinger and the Rothschild banking clan into the high stakes but lethal netherworld of West Siberian gas deals, outraged Vladimir Putin.

Putin finally moved against Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest oil and banking oligarch in 2003, the Kremlin emerged as the most powerful player in the international oil and gas trade with the possible exception of the senior princes of the House of Saud. Russian oil and gas is the most fascinating and complex theme in high finance that I have encountered as a fund manager/deal hunter sniffing out opportunities in the provinces of black gold in the planet's darkest allies.

International oil trading is now dominated by a handful of firms such as Glencore (founded by Marc Rich and part owner of the Footsie 100 copper and nickel mining giant Xtrata) and Gunvor (whose bosses include a German speaking ex KGB judo black belt oligarchs with an old relationship with Putin from his St. Petersburg mayor office trade). Gunvor and Glencore are among the world's largest oil trading companies, with revenues in the $70-80 billion ranges, arguably the biggest private businesses on earth. They own no refineries, no gas fields, no oil wells, no fleet of supertankers, and no petrol stations. Yet they lift the vast majority of the world's oil and gas, sell the black gold treasures of Gazprom, Rosneft, Sibnet and the Opec state oil companies in nebulous, opaque deals no government can really police, though the CIA, M16, Mossad, the FSB and their Third World peers routinely conduct vigilant surveillance on oil tanker movements

While the US invaded Saddam Hussein when he tried to sell his Kirkuk Light black market crude in Euros and tightened the Treasury's sanctions noose around Iran when the Ayatollahs tried to create an oil exchange in Kish island, the endgame for the next generation of oil trading Matadors and Admirals lies in Russia. The Kremlin has created an oil exchange in Vasilevsky Island in St. Petersburg to trade a ruble denominated Urals Blends market contract.

President Dimitri Medvedev, a former Gazprom chairman (Gazprom produces one fourth of the EU's gas imports, making it the single most valuable business on earth), wants to create the Petrorouble, a symbol of Russia's resurgence as an energy superpower, to challenge the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Meanwhile, quasi-governments from Iraqi Kurdistan to the Columbian narcotrafficantes and West African tribal warlords award oil concessions to intrepid wildcatters who drill in places Shell, BP and Exxon cannot remotely access. Oil traders literally write the secret drafts of history in the planet's darkest allies.

Matein Khalid is a Dubai-based investment banker and economic analyst
(www.khaleejtimes.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:21 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Why should Iraq repay its past debts?
By Mayada Al Askari, Staff Writer
Published: June 04, 2008, 00:11

Iraq is not a poor country, everyone knows that. Back during the "sanction days" as Iraqis called them, referring to the 1990-2003 UN-US economic sanctions imposed on the country, affecting and degrading us Iraqis, we used to wonder: Is it possible that we were actually on the abyss of poverty, while at the very same time, we were walking on ponds upon ponds of black gold?

Today, five years after the downfall of the Baathist regime, a full fledged war, an invasion, swinging back and fourth on the brinks of a civil war, insurgency, Al Qaida, illegal armed militias, and heaven knows what else, the Iraqi government is trying its very best to enforce the status of law.

But, Iraq is still burdened with debts. To be precise, Iraq has to pay back the Paris Club Group of developed countries around $13 billion, and another $50-70 billion to different Arab countries. Most, if not all these debts occurred during the eight year Iran-Iraq war.

Related issues

A number of related issues were addressed recently at the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) conference which was held in Stockholm last week.

"This isn't a donor conference. The Iraqis don't need large sums of money," US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. "They do need large infusions of technical assistance, project support, etc..." she added.

Swedish officials also played down the possibility of new initiatives at the meeting, and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said debt was not its subject.

But how is it that Iraq does not need large sums of money, when it has to re-construct its basic infrastructure from scratch?

And is Iraq truly able to pay back these debts, and re-build a devastated country which will need tremendous efforts? Lastly and most importantly, are these debts fair?

Going back to 1991, the official amount of all Iraq's debts was $42 billion. This figure was stated in an official document submitted to the UN Security Council at that time, and as a result, Resolution 687 was issued and a ceasefire was carried out.

Most of the loans offered by major industrial countries around the world at the time were tied to Iraq's purchase of weapons to be used in the war against Iran. Those loans were given to the Iraqi leadership for political considerations.

So, it is not enough that Iraq today has to pay the debts of the regime which the international community decided to first weaken by imposing sanctions against it, then started a war to topple it and finishing off with all that was left of the country's infrastructure, not mentioning the deaths, diseases and misery. Iraq has to also pay the accumulated interest on the major loans.

All this seems very unfair. The loans interest took place during the 13 years of UN sanctions against Iraq, when Iraq had no inflow of foreign currency. Even the revenue of $21 billion generated during the UN oil-for-food programme went unaccounted for at the time of Paul Bremer, the US head of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.

It was stashed away in French and American banks like lame ducks! No interest was added to Iraq's frozen assets in foreign banks for 13 years, so why should Iraq pay interest now?

Only country

Russia was the only country that dropped all of Iraq's debts. Needless to say, the loans given to Iraq were unethical in the first place, as they were given to step up a destructive war.

James S. Henry is a successful American entrepreneur, attorney, economist, and investigative journalist with outstanding record of professional accomplishment.

On his blog which he has called "Submerging Markets" he wrote: "Indeed, as I've argued before, if Iraq's foreign debt had been restructured in the late 1980s, when (James) Baker was secretary of state, many of our difficulties with Iraq - including Saddam's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, the prolonged embargo, and our most recent invasion of Iraq - might well have been avoided entirely."

So isn't it time to take Iraq seriously for a change, and treat its people like human beings?

The region's stability and wellbeing is interwoven with Iraq's security, and stability. Relieving debts that were given to Saddam Hussain for political interests of countries that gave them must be considered before it is too late.
(www.gulfnews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:25 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Obama's strategy on Iraq stuck in the past

May 30, 2008Recommend (2)

BY STEVE HUNTLEY
With the economy skating close to recession and gas prices bleeding pocketbooks, you'd think those would be the issues dominating presidential politics. No, it's Iraq and foreign policy that have John McCain and Barack Obama trading salvos.

National security, nearly everyone agrees, is McCain's strength, so the presumptive Republican nominee naturally rallies to it. National security, nearly everyone acknowledges, is Obama's vulnerability, so the Democrat has to address it forcefully.

The more experienced McCain likes to highlight the success of the military surge in Iraq, which he had advocated for years before President Bush finally embraced it after the old strategy had brought the Iraq enterprise to the threshold of defeat. The young Obama prefers to focus on what he calls the flawed rationale for the invasion and his early opposition to it.

Stoking this issue is the publication of What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington's Culture of Deception by former Bush spokesman Scott McClellan. McClellan's use of the word "deception" in the title and the term "propaganda" in describing the run-up to the war have been seized by Obama and anti-war critics as fresh evidence of Bush's duplicity. But McClellan adds, "I do not believe [Bush] or his White House deliberately or consciously sought to deceive the American people."

The reality of the WMD issue is that it is a story of colossal intelligence failure. The spy agencies not only in America but in Europe and Israel believed Saddam Hussein had chemical and/or biological weapons and sought nuclear capability. A few clicks on the Internet will turn up example after example of President Bill Clinton, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and other Clinton administration officials issuing dire warnings about Iraq's arsenal. Saddam encouraged such beliefs. Add to that the history: his use of chemical weapons and his atomic program being bombed by Israel in 1981.

McClellan complains Bush "began falling into the trap of believing his own spin." Another way of looking at it was that Bush painted a worst-case scenario for Iraq under Saddam. Given the context of the times -- just months after a handful of men armed with box cutters had brought down the twin towers in New York -- worst-case scenarios carried a lot more weight than now, with nearly seven years having passed without a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.

While McClellan echoes Obama's criticism of Bush and McCain's judgment on Iraq, it is Obama's judgment on ending the war on which voters will increasingly focus if the Iraq news continues to be positive. Mostly it's been good for months. A year ago chaos and violence ruled, coalition forces were on the defensive, U.S. troops led all combat operations. Now violence is down dramatically. Iraqi security forces are on the offensive and take the lead, with Americans in supporting roles, in hard fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City and in Basra, achieving surprising success against fierce militias.

Obama's problem is that his Iraq strategy -- withdraw one or two brigades a month until all combat troops are out in 16 months -- was formulated when Iraq looked like a lost cause. If Obama were elected and stuck to his position, he would implement a policy based on conditions existing 1½ years before, not on current realities.

Obama, a University of Chicago intellectual, is in the unlikely position of seeming to have a closed, uninquisitive mind when it comes to Iraq. As McCain points out, the Democrat has visited Iraq just once and that was before the surge. McCain's criticism struck home as Obama now says he may visit Iraq this summer.

Obama also is busy trying to find some wiggle room in his declaration several months ago that he was willing to grant a presidential meeting without precondition in the first year of his term with leaders of rogue states like Iran. He now talks of extensive "preparations" for any summits and says no one is guaranteed a meeting.

Obama no doubt will be happier when the campaign moves on to the economy and gasoline prices.
(www.suntimes.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:28 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraqi prime minister says national reconciliation nearly completed
The Associated PressPublished: May 30, 2008

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STOCKHOLM, Sweden: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Friday that the country's economic and security progress shows reconciliation between the nation's feuding factions is almost completed.

"I'm not saying that Iraq is paradise; absolutely not," al-Maliki told reporters in Stockholm. "There are great challenges. But I still would like to say that violent acts have decreased by 80 percent in Iraq."

His Shiite-dominated government is under pressure to show progress in reconciliation among the country's Sunni Arabs, Shiites and Kurds. Iraq's Sunni Arab minority has long felt it is being sidelined by the majority Shiites and the Kurds.

"We have come nearly to the end of the long process," al-Maliki said through an interpreter at a joint news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt. "It doesn't mean that everyone gets an equal piece of the pie, but it means that one must show a commitment for a unified, democratic Iraq."

The largest Sunni Arab political bloc pulled its members out of the Cabinet in August, saying it was not getting enough say in decision-making. Sunni politicians have been negotiating a possible return, but suspended talks this week due to a dispute over ministry posts.

Today in Europe

Medvedev, in Germany, voices concern over European stance toward Russia

German government backs enhanced surveillance

Austria leads EU demands for explanation of Slovenian nuclear incident

The Iraqi prime minister met Swedish government and industry officials Friday, a day after presenting his country's security and economic progress in the past year to a U.N. conference.

Al-Maliki said the Iraqi government has earmarked funds to facilitate the "voluntary returns" of Iraqi refugees who have fled to neighboring countries and Europe since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

That was welcome news to Sweden, which has admitted more than 40,000 Iraqis in five years and is looking for cooperation from Iraqi authorities to send back rejected asylum-seekers.

"This will take place if we prepare for it, especially when security improves and when work opportunities increase," al-Maliki said. "We hope that this is a matter that will have an impact on the development of our relations with European countries and also with neighboring countries."

Fewer than 1 percent of the 5.1 million Iraqis uprooted from their homes had returned by March 31, according to the International Organization for Migration, an intergovernmental humanitarian group based in Switzerland.

Up to half the displaced are in neighboring countries, chiefly Jordan and Syria. But these countries, feeling overwhelmed, have tightened visa restrictions. Iraqis who are refugees in their own country are feeling the pinch of high rents, lost jobs and the disruption of their children's education.

"We have statistics that say that tens of thousands of refugees wish to return," al-Maliki said. "We welcome them and we will give them privileges."
(www.iht.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 5, 2008 11:31 AM


Sara wrote:

The Democrat's Magical Thinking
By Nancy Morgan
MichNews.com
Jun 3, 2008

Something very strange is happening in the hallowed halls of the old media. From the Washington Post to the New York Times, articles are starting to appear actually acknowledging that the Iraq war may be, gasp, winnable. Even the United Nations went on record (url), with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon saying Iraq has made "notable progress" in the security, political and economic fields.

This recent acknowledgment of the obvious has yet to extend to the Democrat Party. Despite the recent CIA assessment (url) that portrayed al-Qaeda as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the Democrats continue to cling to the notion that the Iraq war is unwinnable, a quagmire, and a lost cause.

Despite the fact that the he commander of British forces in Iraq announced yesterday (url) that missions by special forces and air strikes by unmanned drones have "decapitated" the Taliban and brought the war in Afghanistan to a "tipping point", Democrats continue their time-worn mantra of U.S defeat, hoping that non stop repetition will continue to let them get away with defining their own reality. A reality totally at odds with the facts. In psychological circles, this is called cognitive dissonance.

Obama's presidential platform continues to rely heavily on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, as he vows to immediately withdraw American troops from Iraq the second he is elected president. Democrat Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, continues to spin any vestige of positive news from Iraq into either an indictment of the U.S military or a boost to our enemies.

In the face of the unprecedented and unwelcome success of the surge in Iraq, Nancy Pelosi claimed the U.S. troop surge has failed to accomplish its goal. Apparently, Democrats have redefined the word 'goal', kinda like Charlie Brown. She then partially credited the success (url) of the troop surge to "the goodwill of the Iranians." Riiiiiiiiight.

For forty years or so, the left has been able to get away with calling a rose a weed. With the backing of the liberal media, their tried and true tactics of repeating a lie often enough until it is accepted as truth has worked. Essentially, Democrats have been able to define reality to their own liking, dismissing any inconvenient truths as the delusions of a vast right-wing conspiracy.

By suppressing inconvenient facts, large portions of the left have been able to keep alive the fiction that Alger Hiss was innocent, despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary - that Reagan was stupid, despite the fact that his position of peace through strength won the Cold War - that Che Geuvera was a hero of the people instead of a murdering thug, and that Castro is living proof that socialism works. Tammy Bruce calls this 'magical thinking.' I call it denial.

Ignoring and/or denying reality is the easiest way to cope - for alcoholics, drug addicts, and the mentally challenged. For these poor souls, the first step toward recovery is acknowledging that they are powerless. For liberal politicians like Pelosi however, to admit that any of her premises are faulty would be catastrophic. To admit powerlessness, to admit her worldview is not valid, would be a complete refutation of a lifetime spent seeking and using power. This is not an option.

The good news is, it appears the liberal Democrats might be losing their willing allies in the media, where market forces demand adherence to reality in order to survive. Just as the media has turned against their recent darlings, the Clintons, it now appears likely they will soon question the Democrat version of reality they have followed and supported for so long.

Whether or not the left actually believes their own rhetoric is a question beyond my pay grade. The real issue remains, what are the consequences for America if fully half of our elected officials continue to insist on adhering to an alternate reality of their own making? I have an inquiring mind. I'd like to know.

http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_20389.shtml

-- June 5, 2008 1:06 PM


Sara wrote:

Another Haditha Marine Acquitted
By Matthew Sheffield
June 5, 2008

Another day and another Marine acquitted of charges from the so-called "Haditha massacre" that left-leaning journalists (doing the bidding of Democrat Jack Murtha) insisted actually happened.

Bob Owens has the story you won't be seeing on tonight's ABCNNBCBSMSNBC shows
QUOTE:

A military jury has acquitted 1st Lt. Andrew Grayson of all charges that he helped cover up the killing of 24 Iraqis in Haditha following the IED ambush of a Marine patrol.

Grayson, a Marine intelligence officer, had been accused of having a military photographer erase digital photos of the dead Iraqis. Grayson had turned down a plea deal to face charges on five counts that could have led to a maximum of 20 years in prison. An obstruction-of-justice charge against Grayson had been dismissed by the judge earlier in the week. [...]

The November 19, 2005 killings of 24 Iraqi civilians was once a key talking point for anti-war activists and politicians, who likened the event to a modern day My Lai.

The original Marine account issued the next day claimed that 15 civilians had been killed by an enemy improvised explosive device (IED) that also killed Marine Lance Corporal Miguel Terrazas, and that eight insurgents were killed in the ensuing firefight. Exactly four months after events took place, Time Magazine posted an article Collateral Damage or Civilian Massacre in Haditha? which claimed, based upon interviews with locals, that the 24 civilian dead were the result of Marines “who went on a rampage” after Terrazas was killed.

===end quote==

—Matthew Sheffield is Editor of NewsBusters.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/matthew-sheffield/2008/06/05/another-haditha-marine-acquitted

-- June 5, 2008 1:43 PM


Sara wrote:

There is interesting speculation out there that Hillary won't be conceding the nomination, and may have some new information to add to the nomination process. This article says they think they know what that new information is. Worth reading.

===

Democrat Presidential Contest NOT Over
By Michael J. Gaynor
MichNews.com
Jun 5, 2008

Rookie United States Senator Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. is the presumptive 2008 Democrat presidential nominee.

BUT the rules call for nomination at the convention, not in advance, and neither Obama nor rival Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won enough pledged delegates to win the nomination and the so-called Superdelegates can change their minds (as one from the Virgin Islands already did twice).

Superdelegates don't want Senator John Sidney McCain to become the next President of the United States.

But they also don't want to offend the faithful black bloc vote supporting Obama as one of them or the youth vote largely mesmerized by Obama.

"Something" has to happen to permit the Superdelegates to shift.

It's fitting that the failed 1972 Democrat presidential candidate, former Senator George McGovern (a war hero during WWII, but perhaps the most liberal major party presidential nominee before no military service Obama) is now supporting Obama.

In 1972, McGovern chose and the Democrat national convention nominated the late Senator Tom Eagleton for vice president.

Then it became public knowledge that Eagleton had received shock therapy treatment.

McGovern said he was 1000% percent behind Eagleton, but Eagleton soon left the ticket.

Now that Obama is the presumptive 2008 Democrat presidential nominee, he will receive more scrutiny and the public will learn that he is not what they had been led to believe he is.

There's no question that Michelle "Black Community first and foremost" is black, but one of my emailers suggested that the headline should be "Arab-American Is Presumptive Presidential Nominee," NOT "African-American Is Presumptive Presidential Nominee."

Emailer:

"I was fascinated by the revelations regarding Obama's heritage ... that he is an Arab, not a black. Knowing that and looking at him, he does appear as a dark Arab rather than a 'black' ... his father was 87.5% Arab, his mother was 0% black. That makes Obama at most 6.125% 'black' American and 43.75% 'Arab' American, the rest being a mixture from his Caucasian mother's side. Hmmmm. So why isn't Obama being heralded as the first 'Arab-American' candidate?"

Answer: It would not be politically helpful to Obama, of course.

This emailer also noted that Obama would not be "the first American president with some small percentage of black blood ... Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, Coolidge, and Harding all had some black blood."

Emailer's take is that Black Americans are being "scammed": Obama moved to Chicago's south side to mix with the blacks, marry a black woman and absorb himself into the black community. I doubt if any obviously white person would get away with that ... so he played on his Arab coloring and looks to pass off as a "black" ... once again, the Democrat Party is deceiving the Black American community, big time."

Emailer:

"Wonder if [Obama and the Democrats] WILL get away with it? I suppose if Black America doesn't know it's being scammed, they could hardly be expected to react as if they did know.

"I believe Obama's association with Blacks and 'liberation theology' and other radical black churches is done for two reasons: (1) to create a cover for his masquerading as a 'black' and, (2), because he is a left wing radical.

"Should be interesting to see how this all unfolds."

Hillary needs to have disconcerting truth about Obama made public without alienating Obama's base.

She's not a quitter, so let's watch closely.

http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_20395.shtml

-- June 5, 2008 5:09 PM


Sara wrote:

UAE to name ambassador to Iraq
By Ammar Karim
AFP - June 5 2008

BAGHDAD (AFP) - The United Arab Emirates said on Thursday it is to name an ambassador to Iraq within days, the Iraqi government said on Thursday.

The announcement came during a landmark visit to Baghdad by UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan, the first by such a high-ranking official from an Arab country in the Gulf since the US-led invasion of 2003.

The foreign minister told reporters that the UAE would reopen its embassy and name an ambassador soon.

"Consultations are under way between the UAE and the Iraqi government about naming the ambassador to Iraq and reopening the Emirati embassy in the next few days," he told a press conference in Baghdad.

He said he hoped to see "an active and effective Emirati embassy in Baghdad in the coming weeks."

"We view Iraq as an important partner in the region, and we aspire to (Baghdad) being an important partner of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)," the Emirati news agency WAM quoted the Emirati chief diplomat as saying.

The oil-rich GCC that also includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain are also taking steps toward establishing a permanent diplomatic presence in Iraq.

Last Friday, Jordan said it would also appoint a new ambassador "in the coming days."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20080605/twl-iraq-diplomacy-uae-3cd7efd.html

-- June 5, 2008 5:16 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Is he black?

Is Obama black? Boy, I never thought I'd be saying those words, in a sentence. Yet....he could be, not black, for all I know. Only a geneticist could know for sure. His color shouldn't be an issue. But his honesty should be.

At a time when America is at war with two Muslim countries, I think the voters would be interested in knowing, if one of the major candidates had lied about his heritage, and was, in fact, Arab. I think it would be something that people should know, and then they could make up their own minds, as to whether or not his ethnicity was a relevant issue.

If I were an American, I would easily vote for a black candidate, like Colin Powell. But I would not vote for a known liar. I thought Mr. Powell should have run, but he didn't. Condaleeza Rice has more than enough brainpower and experience to lead America, but she has said on a number of occasions, she doesn't want the job. She doesn't think she is the leader type.

It might make sense, really, if he turned out to be an Arab. It reminds me of the time I spent in Kenya, Barrack's father's home. I spent a lazy week, a couple of decades ago, lazing on the beaches of Mombassa. It's right on the coast, and I thought of it as sort of an African Hawaii.

Plenty of palm trees, tons of tourists in the hotels on the coast. I baked on the beach, for a week. And then I went in, for a tourist jaunt, to the city of Mombassa. I took a tour of an old fort, built by the Portugese, I think. As the tour guide showed us around, he explained a bit of the history of the area.

Mombassa was a slave trading port, he said. He showed us a map of the middle east, and the northeastern tip of Africa, where we were. Paraphrasing what I remember of the conversation, "It was easy and natural for slave routes to develop the way they did. The Arabian peninsula sticks out into the ocean. Just set sail, up the Red Sea, or Persian Gulf, head to the Arabian Sea, and then into the Indian Ocean, along the coast, past what is now Somolia, and you end up here, after a short trip." On a map, it looks like sailing from Boston to Georgia. No big deal, in a decent boat.

When I visited the market in Mombassa, I saw dozens of women, dressed in black. Since it was on the equator, and dreadfully hot, I was amazed anyone could wear such a heat absorbing outfit. Here I was, a skinny white guy, at the time, dressed in white shorts and T-Shirt, and I was way too hot in that outfit, and these women were baking like chickens, in the hot sun, covered head to toe in long black dresses and headcovers. They were Muslim, of course. Unlike the interior, which is mostly Christian, there are a lot of Muslims on the coast of Kenya, because the slavers converted the black people who lived there, but I guess the Arabs didn't make it to the interior of the country.

And, if he is Arab, that could be Obama's roots. The Arab slave traders were notorious for their cruelty toward blacks. The account I read, years ago, of the Arab slave trade, claimed the Muslim Arabs traded more slaves, than did the Christian nations, at the time. And today, in the Sudan, Arab Muslims, who have a reputation for being racist against blacks, and considering them inferior, these Arab Muslims are currently abusing and killing blacks.

This election seems to be, in many people's minds, about putting America's past, in regards to slavery and the historical mistreatment of blacks behind them. Obama, for many people, appears to fulfill some sort of psychological need, in some white voters, for some sort of moral redemption, for America's past injustices, done by people other than themselves. The past injustices were, of course, slavery and the oppression of blacks. Wouldn't it be ironic if the candidate running for President who had the most to hide, because his ancestors were slave owners, and abusers of black people, was Obama?

Kinda makes a mess of the whole liberal rationale for supporting the guy, doesn't it?

So, is Obama black? Unless he tells us, or Republicans hire private detectives to pick up hair samples from hotel rooms, we'll never know. But it's true, a man who looks like Obama could easily be produced, as an offspring, from a white mother, and a black skinned Arab man. Arabs, in Saudi Arabia have very dark skin. Their facial features are not black, so a pure Arab will not look pure black. But a half black, half Arab might just look like Obama. Tiger Woods is thought of as black, but his mother is and Oriental.

So, the American Army, on orders from the President of the United States, and the White House, went all the way, across the world, to the middle east, to wage war against a Muslim nation, and depose of a Muslim Arab man, named Hussein. Now, it appears, another Muslim Arab man, named Hussein, may yet claim the power of the Presidency, and the White House.

Wow, that is a very strange set of circumstances.

Anybody remember the story of the Trojan Horse?

My guess? Obama is a mixture of mostly Arab, some black, and half white.

My guess is, he's lying.

-- June 5, 2008 10:23 PM


NEIL wrote:

I am amazed everytime that I hear someone from afar telling about the Klu Klux Klan. I have lived in the South for over 70 years and am about as well travelled as the average person and I have never met a Klu Kluxer and neither have I ever met anyone who admitted to knowing a Klu Kluxer. I have also never seen a Southern Belle.

I have visited a few trailor courts and seen the people who appear on TV whenever the TV media cameras come South to cover some issue.

There are a few red-necks in the South that give the whole region a bad reputation just as there is a small percentage of bad-ass blacks that give all blacks a scary image.

The South gets a raw deal whenever the media covers it, but it appears to me that only the rich and famous have an unfair advantage over blacks. If a black and white kid was graduating from high school and going into the work force in the South, I would rather be the black kid.

We have reached the point in this Country where no constructive discussion can be made of racial issues. You either brag on blacks or you are a racist.

I have probably done more for black people than 90% of the people in this country so think twice before branding me a racist.

-- June 6, 2008 12:02 AM


cornishboy wrote:

2008 monetary and exchange rate policy http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr0817.pdf

-- June 6, 2008 6:17 AM


cornishboy wrote:

Revealed: Secret plan to keep Iraq under US control http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/32049

-- June 6, 2008 6:26 AM


mattuk wrote:

Meanwhile...back in Iraq....


DUBAI/BAGHDAD (Reuters)

Iraq is exporting more oil than it has for years and is on the verge of signing deals with oil majors that could quickly take output higher, oil officials say.

Baghdad expects this month to conclude negotiations for six oilfield service contracts with international companies that could boost output this year.

The deals could provide the extra 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in exports Iraq wants from the southern Basra terminal by the end of 2008. Basra accounts for most of Iraq's exports, shipping more than 1.5 million bpd.

"Provided they are signed promptly, these deals could give quick progress," said an executive at a western oil company negotiating for one of the contracts.

"They are the first step towards real improvement in a sector that has been under stress for 30 years."

Iraq expects June exports to reach 2.2 million barrels per day, the highest for monthly shipments since the U.S.-led invasion of March 2003. Baghdad sees exports rising further to 2.3 million bpd by the end of 2008.

The oil sector has increased output as security has improved but oil companies remain nervous.

Iraq will contract international oil firms to help manage operations at its largest producing fields such as Rumaila in the south, supplying equipment to refurbish dilapidated infrastructure.
The two-year deals call for a total output boost of 600,000 barrels per day. Once the contracts are signed, Iraq plans to offer the same fields in a bidding round for longer-term development.

The industry needs billions of dollars for renewal and expansion. The service deals are part of stop-gap measures to attract part of that investment in the absence of a vital oil law.

Political disputes have stalled the passage of an oil law through parliament for over a year. The legislation aims to set the terms and extent of foreign investment in developing the world's third largest oil reserves.

"Considerable progress can be made without the law," said Muhammad-Ali Zainy, senior energy analyst at the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies.

"These contracts are a big step forward and will help bring new methods and technology to these important fields."

BETTER SECURITY

Improved security has yielded gains of nearly 500,000 bpd in northern exports since last summer. Sabotage had kept that line mostly idle since the war.

Baghdad hopes to see Kirkuk oil exports up by another 100,000 bpd by the end of the year.

Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said this week he was optimistic that Iraqi forces would keep security tight at oil facilities, helping to bolster the confidence of foreign investors discouraged by sectarian violence.
Rising output and exports are allowing Iraq to cash in on record oil prices and have raised the prospect of an accelerated recovery in its shattered economy.

Iraq has a 10-year plan to boost output from 2.5 million bpd this year to 6 million bpd, Shahristani said this week. It aims to hit 4.5 million bpd in five years.

But for those larger long-term gains, Iraq needs the oil law in place for international oil companies to play a bigger role in developing untapped fields.

"We remain very cautious in terms of further capacity expansion," said Alex Munton, analyst at global consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"Iraq has almost reached the point, simply by repairing the damage of the last few years and adding security around main pipelines, of maximum capacity with the infrastructure in place. But there is little likelihood of being able to add to that without much larger-scale investment and the assistance of international oil companies."

Even with the law, international oil majors have said it would be years before security improves enough for them to be able to send ground staff to Iraq.

They intend to manage the new technical service contracts from outside the country, and will rely on Iraq's state oil companies to execute their plans.

The law is meant to help bridge divides between Iraq's Shi'ites, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Control of oil reserves is one of the principal disputes.

The Iraqi Kurdish region's prime minister said on Tuesday that it would take fresh proposals to Baghdad on the oil law in the next two weeks. The Kurds' top energy official said he hoped the law would pass this year.

-- June 6, 2008 7:43 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq Looking at Alternatives to US Security Agreement - Iraqi Official

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

London, 06 June 2008 (Asharq Alawsat)
Print article Send to friend
Disagreements between Iraqi and US delegations over issues relating to "sovereignty" in a draft strategic agreement organizing relations between the two countries disrupted the negotiations between the two sides. A prominent Iraqi official said that Iraq is discussing "alternatives" to the agreement, including "staying under UN protection."

Official Spokesman for the Iraqi Government Ali al-Dabbagh said, "Currently, there is open talk on the need to look for alternatives to the long-term security agreement between Iraq and the United States."

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat by phone from his office in Baghdad, Al-Dabbagh said, "At its meeting today [3 June], the Council of Ministers discussed the objections to the provisions of the agreement. There should be agreement between two fully sovereign countries respecting the Iraqi people's rights and sovereignty or no agreement at all." He emphasized, "We do not need an agreement that compromises our sovereignty and harms our people's rights."

Al-Dabbagh said, "The Iraqi Government's vision differs from that of the Americans who think that the agreement will give them almost totally a free hand in Iraq and that, as a military force, they must have absolute powers. This stand contravenes Iraqi sovereignty and our people's rights. No Iraqi political force or party would accept this. The issue of the country's sovereignty and people's rights cannot be compromised at all. It is not subject to discussion or even mere talk." He added, "The agreement must respect Iraq and the Iraqis or there should be no agreement. We are not compelled to sign the agreement or submit to it. The agreement must respect our sovereignty and rights." The official spokesman for the Iraqi Government said, "Currently, there is open talk on the need to look for alternatives, if no plan is agreed upon. These alternatives include signing a cooperation agreement instead of a long-term security agreement and staying under the United Nations protection to protect Iraqi funds, in addition to many other alternatives that are under discussion. "Al-Dabbagh denied that the negotiations between Iraq and the US Administration on the agreement have been suspended. He explained, "The negotiators went back to their higher political authorities for consultation. We do not consider the negotiations as having been suspended. Iraq has not submitted and will not submit to any pressure or influence. As a matter of fact, the Americans did not press for accepting the agreement." Earlier, a leader of the Al-Da'wah Party announced that negotiations between the two sides came to an end.

Negotiations have been held between the United States and Iraq to reach agreement on the "status of the forces" with the aim of imparting a legal status to the presence of the US Army in Iraq after the 31st of December when a mandate under an international resolution organizing the presence of these forces in Iraq expires. The French News Agency quoted MP Abbas al-Bayyati who represents the ruling coalition assaying, "There are three points that need further discussions. They are the right to detain, the right to enter and exit, and the extent of the immunity granted to US soldiers and security contractors." He added that there are questions about "the fight against terrorism and whether the US forces will enjoy an absolute right to detain people or whether the Iraqi side will have a larger role."

The Political Council of the Iraqi National Security that consists of senior officials and political groups recommended that there is a need to continue the negotiations with the United States in order to reach an agreement that will "satisfy the Iraqi people and not harm their interests." Al-Bayyatiadds, "The other issues have to do with the forces' entry and exit. The entry and exit of the forces must be regulated by a clear mechanism, such as imposing entry visas and designating entry and exit points and airports." He continues, "As for the immunity, there is a question as to whether a [US] soldier or an employee of a security firm who commits a crime will stand trial at Iraqi courts or whether the immunity will be limited to the performance of duty."

On the other side, however, the Iraqi demands seem to be absolutely contrary to what the Americans are seeking. A source familiar with the draft agreement says, "The Americans demand to control the airspace, enjoy open facilities on land and at sea, have the right to arrest and imprison any Iraqi who they believe poses a threat, and carry out military operations against terrorism without consulting Baghdad." The source who refused to give his name adds, "The Iraqis demand that they be considered a sovereign government. Also, they assert that the Americans must not be granted facilities without their approval. They want the status of the American bases that will be established to be reviewed as is the case in Turkey." The source says, "The Baghdad government insists that US forces do not move from their temporary bases without its approval and knowledge. Also, it insists that the movement of the US Army funds be subject to the Central Bank and that a written approval by the Iraqi Government be secured for any military operation." The same source adds, "The Iraqis reject the arrest of any Iraqi without their consent. Also, they demand that the US forces be given limited corridors in the Iraqi airspace and that US soldiers' legal immunity be limited to military operations, on the condition that such operations be carried out after securing Baghdad's approval."

In response to Al-Dabbagh's statements that agreement between the two sides might not be reached, Mirembe Natango, spokeswoman for the US Embassy in Baghdad, said, "These are negotiations conducted between two sovereign countries that work together." In a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat, Natango added that the talk about disagreements or failure to reach agreement is premature. She explained, "No final agreement has been reached on any issue to date, and it is premature to say that agreement has been reached." Natango pointed out that negotiations are continuing between Iraqi and US officials at various levels. She said, "Several drafts are currently exchanged between the two sides, and no final draft has been formulated."
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 6, 2008 9:29 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

US issues threat to Iraq's $50bn foreign reserves in military deal
By Patrick Cockburn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

06 June 2008 (The Independent)
Print article Send to friend
The US is holding hostage some $50bn (£25bn) of Iraq's money in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to pressure the Iraqi government into signing an agreement seen by many Iraqis as prolonging the US occupation indefinitely, according to information leaked to The Independent.

US negotiators are using the existence of $20bn in outstanding court judgments against Iraq in the US, to pressure their Iraqi counterparts into accepting the terms of the military deal, details of which were reported for the first time in this newspaper yesterday.

Iraq's foreign reserves are currently protected by a presidential order giving them immunity from judicial attachment but the US side in the talks has suggested that if the UN mandate, under which the money is held, lapses and is not replaced by the new agreement, then Iraq's funds would lose this immunity. The cost to Iraq of this happening would be the immediate loss of $20bn. The US is able to threaten Iraq with the loss of 40 per cent of its foreign exchange reserves because Iraq's independence is still limited by the legacy of UN sanctions and restrictions imposed on Iraq since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in the 1990s. This means that Iraq is still considered a threat to international security and stability under Chapter Seven of the UN charter. The US negotiators say the price of Iraq escaping Chapter Seven is to sign up to a new "strategic alliance" with the United States.

The threat by the American side underlines the personal commitment of President George Bush to pushing the new pact through by 31 July. Although it is in reality a treaty between Iraq and the US, Mr Bush is describing it as an alliance so he does not have to submit it for approval to the US Senate.

Iraqi critics of the agreement say that it means Iraq will be a client state in which the US will keep more than 50 military bases. American forces will be able to carry out arrests of Iraqi citizens and conduct military campaigns without consultation with the Iraqi government. American soldiers and contractors will enjoy legal immunity.

The US had previously denied it wanted permanent bases in Iraq, but American negotiators argue that so long as there is an Iraqi perimeter fence, even if it is manned by only one Iraqi soldier, around a US installation, then Iraq and not the US is in charge.

The US has security agreements with many countries, but none are occupied by 151,000 US soldiers as is Iraq. The US is not even willing to tell the government in Baghdad what American forces are entering or leaving Iraq, apparently because it fears the government will inform the Iranians, said an Iraqi source.

The fact that Iraq's financial reserves, increasing rapidly because of the high price of oil, continue to be held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is another legacy of international sanctions against Saddam Hussein. Under the UN mandate, oil revenues must be placed in the Development Fund for Iraq which is in the bank.

The funds are under the control of the Iraqi government, though the US Treasury has strong influence on the form in which the reserves are held.

Iraqi officials say that, last year, they wanted to diversify their holdings out of the dollar, as it depreciated, into other assets, such as the euro, more likely to hold their value. This was vetoed by the US Treasury because American officials feared it would show lack of confidence in the dollar.

Iraqi officials say the consequence of the American action was to lose Iraq the equivalent of $5bn. Given intense American pressure on a weak Iraqi government very dependent on US support, it is still probable that the agreement will go through with only cosmetic changes. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the immensely influential Shia cleric, could prevent the pact by issuing a fatwa against it but has so far failed to do so.

The Grand Ayatollah met Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which is the main supporter of the Iraqi government, earlier this week and did not condemn the agreement or call for a referendum. He said, according to Mr Hakim, that it must guarantee Iraqi national sovereignty, be transparent, command a national consensus and be approved by the Iraqi parliament. Critics of the deal fear that the government will sign the agreement, and parliament approve it, in return for marginal concessions.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 6, 2008 9:33 AM


Sara wrote:

Tracking down this rumor about Obama is interesting.. I used Wikipedia.
It says of Obama's father:

Barack Obama, Sr., was born in 1936 in Nyangoma-Kogelo, Siaya District (now in Bondo District), Kenya. His father, Hussein Onyango Obama (c. 1895-1979),[1] belonged to the Luo tribe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama%2C_Sr.

Now, the Luo tribe;

The Luo probably originated at Wau in southern Sudan, near the confluence of the Meride and Sue Rivers. The Kenya Luo migrated into western Kenya via today's eastern Uganda, the first wave arriving sometime around 1500 AD. Arrivals came in at least five waves arriving at different times: (1) the Joka-Jok (who migrated from Acholiland, the first and largest migration); (2) those migrating from Alur; (3) the Owiny (who migrated from Padhola); (4) the Jok’Omolo (perhaps from Pawir); and (5) The Abasuba (a heterogeneous group in southern Nyanza, with Bantu elements).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luo_%28Kenya_and_Tanzania%29

There is no further information on each of these migratory waves (the Joka-Kok, Alur, Owiny, Jok'Omolo or Abasuba) on wikipedia.
However, this is interesting on Wau:

Wau, Sudan

Wau (Arabic: واو Wāw; also Wow or Waw) is a town in southern Sudan on the western bank of the Jur River, and is the capital of the West Bahr al Ghazal state.

Overview
Initially established as a zariba (fortified base) by slave-traders in the 19th century, it became an administrative center during the time of Anglo-Egyptian condominium rule in Sudan. Wau is a culturally, ethnically, and linguistically mixed town. Its residents include peoples of Fertit, Dinka, Luo, and Arab origin.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wau%2C_Sudan

So, from this, we can see that the claim Barack is Arab in origin could be so.
His father could have been from the Wau Arabic residents.
It is interesting and this claim could bear up under scrutiny.

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 9:47 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Like everything else in Iraq it seems U.S. desire and Iraqi will are at odds. It looks as though we were all wrong; we thought the HCL as the key to release from article VII. Instead, it turns out that the restoration of soverignty rests on the Iraqi Parliment passing the SOFA agreement.

There is no doubt the SOFA agreement as it now stands is in serious trouble. On the other hand, I am sure negotiations are going on and a compromise reached. I am very confident that both the HCL and SOFA will fail to pass parliment before the July recess. If I am right, we as investors have a longer wait ahead of us.

A delay in the HCL and SOFA means the status quo of a gradual appreciation of the Dinar will be the continued policy of the CBI.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 6, 2008 9:54 AM


Sara wrote:

timbitts, Thank you, your post on Mombassa and the Arab slave traders was very interesting. You said,"if he is Arab, that could be Obama's roots" and the wikipedia information I just posted appears to support that possibility.

Thanks, Neil, for your post, too. I agree, stereotypes about the South are far from reality. It is only that Hollywood has created a false viewpoint now perpetuated by the MSM. People ought to know better.

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 9:59 AM


DinarAdmin wrote:

The racist post (and references to it) I removed was from the UK, not the United States. Sara's correct that the Brits only have Hollywood movies and incorrect news views, and not reality, that they judge from.

DinarAdmin

-- June 6, 2008 10:15 AM


Sara wrote:

Flip-flopping ahead.. in order to avoid the devastation of the truth that Iraq is a victory...

==

Obama says ground condition could alter Iraq withdrawal policy
Friday, June 06, 2008

NEW YORK: Presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama has sought to distance himself from his campaign statements on troop withdrawal from Iraq, apparently under pressure from Republican rival John McCain's repeated questioning of his stand.

In an interview with US news agency after clinching the Presidential nomination, Obama did not rule out the possibility that conditions on the ground could alter his policy of immediately beginning a troop withdrawal.

Obama's likely opponent in presidential race John McCain, a Vietnam war veteran, has been constantly questioning Obama's policy, saying it would not be in best interest of the US or Iraq to withdraw troops before peace has been restored.

McCain has also said that he plans to get most US troops home from Iraq by 2013, if elected.

Confronted with his statements on withdrawal policy, Obama replied, "Well, you know, I'd never say there's 'nothing' or 'never' or 'no way' in which I'd change my mind".

Sounding more cautious on the issue, the 46 year old Illinois senator said the matter will be looked upon from a "broader perspective".

http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=46975
http://www.huliq.com/61306/obama-says-ground-condition-could-alter-iraq-withdrawal-policy

As McCain leads this inexperienced puppy to the truth...
will the American people see that he is not leading but following McCain's lead?

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 11:10 AM


Sara wrote:

Four Qaida militants killed in U.S. raid in N Iraq
www.chinaview.cn
2008-06-06

BAGHDAD, June 6 (Xinhua) -- U.S. troops killed four suspected al-Qaida militants and detained more than 20 others in a raid targeting al-Qaida network in Iraq's northern province of Ta'mim, the U.S. military said Friday.

The U.S. raid which was based on intelligence information conducted on Wednesday and took place along the Tigris River Valley in the western part of Ta'mim province, a military statement said.

The statement revealed that a suspected cell leader and his top lieutenants were among the dead who were believed to be responsible for carrying out car bomb attacks and weapons smuggling in the province and its nearby areas.

Recently, U.S. and Iraqi security forces captured or killed many al-Qaida leaders for indiscriminate killings and disturbing stability across the country.

On Tuesday, the U.S. military announced in a statement that its troops captured two wanted men of al-Qaida militants and five of their associates in two operations in the cities of Mosul and Tikrit, north of Baghdad.  

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/06/content_8322605.htm

-- June 6, 2008 11:13 AM


Sara wrote:

Recruitment of suicide bombers down - official
By Basil Adas, Correspondent
Published: June 06, 2008, 00:12

Baghdad: About 6,000 Al Qaida fighters have been killed since the beginning of the Iraq war five years ago, half of whom died in suicide operations, according to a top official in the Iraqi army.

The official said the killings took place between 2003 and April 2008.

The high number of Al Qaida deaths was "a result of cooperation between Iraqi security forces and US forces," Gen Anwar Ameen, Inspector General at the Iraqi Defence Ministry, told Gulf News.

He said Al Qaida members were killed either by US or Iraqi forces, or killed themselves in suicide bombings.

"This is a defeat for the organisation, not only in Iraq but also worldwide. I am certain Al Qaida will need decades to be able to again recruit the number [of fighters] it lost in Iraq," he added.

Anwar said Al Qaida no longer had the ability to recruit as many suicide bombers as it did between 2003 and 2005, which explains the decline in the number of suicide operations in Baghdad, from twenty per week a couple of years ago to the present three or four every one to two weeks, according to him.

http://www.gulf-news.com/region/Iraq/10218907.html

-- June 6, 2008 11:15 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq: 2 Shiite militia leaders surrender
06/06/2008

BAGHDAD (AP) - Two suspected Shiite militia leaders surrendered Friday during American raids on their homes south of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

One of the men is suspected of ordering attacks on U.S. troops, directing the kidnapping of Iraqis and smuggling Iranian weapons and Katyusha rockets into Iraq, according to a statement from the military. The other suspect tried to flee by wading through an irrigation canal, before surrendering.

The U.S. said the men were members of Iranian-backed "special groups" language the American military uses to describe Shiite fighters defying a cease-fire order by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Such arrests have become an almost daily occurrence in Iraq, where U.S. forces are seeking to thwart the movement of Iranian weapons into Iraq. Washington accuses Iran of arming and training Shiite militiamen, but Tehran denies that.

The U.S. military issued three additional statements Friday saying its soldiers killed four suspects and captured more than 57 others in raids earlier in the week in Baghdad and across northern Iraq.

http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=12991

-- June 6, 2008 11:20 AM


Sara wrote:

Israel attack on Iran 'unavoidable'-Olmert deputy
06/06/2008

JERUSALEM, (Reuters) - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's deputies said on Friday.

"If Iran continues with its programme for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective," Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

"Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable," said the former army chief who has also been defence minister.

It was the most explicit threat yet against Iran from a member of Olmert's government, which, like the Bush administration, has preferred to hint at force as a last resort should U.N. Security Council sanctions be deemed a dead end.

Iran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, has defied Western pressure to abandon its uranium enrichment projects. The leadership in Tehran has also threatened to retaliate against Israel -- believed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal -- and U.S. targets in the Gulf for any attack on Iranian turf.

Mofaz also said in the interview that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel to be wiped off the map, "would disappear before Israel does."

Mofaz's remarks came as he and several other senior members of Olmert's Kadima Party prepare for a possible run for top office should a corruption scandal force the Israeli prime minister to step down.

Iranian-born Mofaz has been a main party rival of the Israeli prime minister, particularly following the 2006 elections when Olmert was forced to hand the defence portfolio to Labour, his main coalition partner, at Mofaz's expense.

Mofaz, who is also designated as a deputy prime minister, has remained privy to Israel's defence planning. He is a member of Olmert's security cabinet and leads regular strategic coordination talks with the U.S. State Department.

Israel sent warplanes to destroy Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981.

A similar Israeli sortie over Syria last September razed what the U.S. administration said was a nascent nuclear reactor built with North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.

Independent analysts have questioned, however, whether Israel's armed forces can take on Iran alone, as its nuclear sites are numerous, distant and well-fortified.

http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=12992

Independent analysts have questioned, however, whether Israel's armed forces can take on Iran alone, as its nuclear sites are numerous, distant and well-fortified.

Hmm.. then who do you think might be placed into the position of having to help them?
Possibly.. the US?

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 11:24 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

I'm in a dilemna! Obama infuriates me and McCain nauseates me.
We usually make a large donation to the Repub. party right after the convention. Our conscience is not clear this year. My husband read bio on Mc cain.......cheated on his wife Carol Shepp who waited for him while POW, had car accident, became crippled, gained weight, and he dumped her for Cindy!

60% of policies that need to be his platform, he will have a hard time stating as his voting record shows that he voted against the conservatives in Congress. So in order to take a stand on issues that make him
diametrically different from Obama, he will have to change his mind from his past convictions.

He will not support a Constituional ammendment to confirm marriage remains one man one woman, AND he opposes late term abortion, but that's it!

What CRAP has the Republican Party dealt us??????

The claim that he will deal with our noational security, is weak, in that he wants to close gittmo, refuses to allow our intelligence and military to use effective interrogating methods AND has no worry about terrorists getting into this country based on his opposing any form of truly effective immigration reform........

So, why should we expect that internationally he will put up a good fight against evil confrontations from terrorist nations? Excuse my langauge....but the man is a piece of shit! trying to pass himself off as filet mignon!

This country is in deep...you what!

I guess I will have to wait to see who he picks as a running mate......cause milignant melanoma's exacerbate with stress and exhaustion....so his life line is questionable, at best.

If he picks another old guy with failing health, too much of a risk that nancy pelosi will end up president.

AND , I beleive , as many, if Obama picks Hilary as running mate, he will end up on that long suspicious list of people they had problems with who had untimely mysterious deaths.....so she could end up president.

Disect Mc Cain, and be opened minded and see if you aren't in a dilemna too!

I realize our options are disasterous.....but we have to answer to a higher calling.....at this point my conscience is in deadlock!

carole

-- June 6, 2008 11:38 AM


Sara wrote:

Have any of you noticed how lopsided the coverage on the Iraq-US agreement is? They only give the interests of the Iraqis and not any interests of the US. It is IRAQ'S INDEPENDENCE which counts.. and not any interests of the US??? I am not saying to stop caring about the Iraqis or their sovereignty, but just hold on a second here. The US has put a lot of BLOOD, sweat and tears into this.. is the world proposing that the US is supposed to walk away empty-handed? I don't think that makes any business sense. In any transaction, BOTH sides have to feel they win in order for the agreement to work and be useful. The coverage given portrays the US as the big bully trying to take away from Iraq.. but they don't show ANY of the LEGITIMATE needs of the US within the agreement as having any weight. This lopsided, myopic viewpoint wishes nothing but concessions from the US, and I think it should not be given into. The agreement should be forged in such a way that BOTH sides are in agreement and protect their interests in the region. The US side ought to be given fair play and if the Iraqis are so reluctant to give that they must be FORCED by threats over their money (see article above), then that speaks to such a sorry state of affairs that the negotiators cannot get anything done with these recalcitrant Iraqis without the use of discipline. I had hoped they were mature and disciplined already... without the need of threats to gain any traction for US interests.

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 11:40 AM


carole wrote:

One more thing....this great stand he takes on the environment..........Cindy's beer "factories" emit massive amounts of Carbon toxins on a daily basis,,,,,,

chit!jda'rfpepfef[dsojasfrofjwfpdlsojasdifhwrfhwijf[wk[paskfojafiswjfsFSF[FORIHPFKsD;w !!!!!! (You don't want an interpretation)

AND SHE IS A RECENTLY RECOVERED ADDICT!

If I were a drinking person, I'd be looking to get drunk right about now!

Carole

-- June 6, 2008 11:44 AM


Carole wrote:

AND "WE THE PEOPLE" the world's most democratic nation........LET AND CONTINUE TO LET THIS HAPPEN!

Katrina was a "B" ride for this nation.....get ready for the "E" ride!

Carole

-- June 6, 2008 11:48 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

As I told you, the Lord said to me that He was putting a Democrat into the Whitehouse, but not Hillary or Obama. I believe McCain is a Democrat and noted to you that Kerry asked him to run with him on the Democrat ticket to be his Vice President. You also see that he is a Democrat and find it hard as a Republican to support what is not the GOP platform. Understandable.

However, he is a man who has qualifications for the office of President. Obama has none.
http://truckandbarter.com/mt/archives/2008/04/dinar_discussio_2.html#134871

And as for being Commander-in-chief - who would you rather to be in that role? Even Hillary saw what a weakling Obama is on defense, offense and foreign affairs in her ad about "who do you want to be on the other end of the phone?"

I cannot endorse McCain as I do President Bush. But McCain is the will of God for the nation. Once he is in, America will have to take her lumps as he helms the ship.. far better than Obama would have, but far less than President Bush. You see, they rejected what you and I and President Bush believe. The key questions you are concerned about.. does President Bush support your view? Look carefully.. what are your objections?

Personal relationships? President Bush has never been in a scandal and is married to one original wife. Changing of his positions and voting against party lines? President Bush is reliable, as one man said, "all you need is to talk to him once and you know where he stands". Marriage between one man and one woman? President Bush would support that and sign it into law, as you well know. National security, Gitmo, intelligence gathering? President Bush's policies mirror your own concerns. Iran? President Bush would not let them get nuclear weapons.. See? All you care about.. President Bush embodied. And the American people rejected him, and so rejected his policies. NOW they get to reap that.. in being given someone who is closer to what they say they want. And they will get to see what they have chosen.

What do you suggest? We force them to admit they are wrong and Bush's policies are right? That our views are the most rational and sane to keep the country safe from terrorist attack? We cannot do so. So the majority opinion (which the media gloats they have no approval of President Bush) will prevail. They will get someone not like President Bush.. so that they will see what policies which are not like his will bring them. God will give them what they want. But in mercy, He won't give them fully what they deserve (the most radical left politician now in office - Obama). God will have a bit of mercy.. as McCain is not as bad as the disaster we would be in for if Obama got in (the Lord told me the terrorists would work from WITHIN the government to bring about nuclear destruction on America if he got into power - which fits with Obama being friends with terrorists, doesn't it?). But all the same, I think we are about to be given "a lesson" which we are not going to forget.

Remember that the Bible says that "the world" (the world system) is an enemy of God. As the people of America choose to listen to this enemy of their souls, they will find that those who oppose them are given the upper hand. It is my belief that then they will see the error of their ways and turn back to God and receive discernment in what they should do.

For now.. I agree. It is a dire situation. But from my view, McCain must win the Whitehouse. What other choice is there?

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 12:25 PM


Sara wrote:

Each of the items on this list have urls to them with substantiation:

===

A List of Things About Obama That Are Not Rumor
Posted on June 5, 2008

His wife going off on a rant about how evil “whitey” is, and conspiracies that he is a covert Muslim trying to infiltrate our democracy are nothing more than rumors…at least at this point. However, there are plenty of things the media don’t put enough focus on that are true about the Obamas. Instead they would rather focus on things like his playful fist-bump. They have to keep their priorities on the important issues.

- His connection and close friendship with a corrupt crook and convicted felon.
- Obama supports sex education for Kindergarten!
- Obama sought the endorsement of the Marxist Party in 1996!
- Obama’s embracement of appeasement.
- Obama has a huge anti-gun record.
- Obama may not be a Muslim, but every association with religion he has made seems to be outrageously radical!
- Obama has a very bad habit of re-writing history.
- Obama refuses to cut his friendship with unrepentant anti-American terrorists!
- A history of terrorist fundraisers for Obama.
- Obama’s ties to Kenya and his cousin Odinga.
- Obama has many, many radical friends!
- Many Obama lies the media will ignore.

Please add anything I left out into the comments.

http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/06/05/a-list-of-things-about-obama-that-are-not-rumor/

-- June 6, 2008 12:37 PM


mattuk wrote:

Quote:
"The racist post (and references to it) I removed was from the UK, not the United States. Sara's correct that the Brits only have Hollywood movies and incorrect news views, and not reality, that they judge from."

By DinarAdmin

Is that so? I'm English and I don't share Sara's views, Reuters is probably the most factual news media in the world, unlike most of the USA ones, and that happens to be British.

AS for the racist remarks, they were bang out of order and have no place on this blog, and were rightly removed promptly.

Kind regards from Matt...this side of the pond...

-- June 6, 2008 1:23 PM


Sara wrote:

mattuk;

I wasn't saying what I posted against the British people (or any people group) in particular. It was a general observation that the news media tend to be left in viewpoint and so biased against our viewpoint on the right (and it reinforces Hollywood stereotypes). DA made the application to the one errant poster whose views reflected a biased (and MSM) viewpoint against the US South. But in that one case, I think that person (posting as Steve, but maybe not the same Steve as from before) did have a rather "twisted" viewpoint of what the US South is like, and he likely has not been to the US in person (being a Brit), so the point is valid concerning that one poster. But not, of course, concerning all British people. There are some who are not taken in by whatever they hear spoken on the MSM.. there are people with discernment in every culture and nation. I count you among those, mattuk, and hope you will not take offense, as none was intended on my part.

But the point I was making is that Hollywood and the MSM have a bias and run with or make up that which agrees with their viewpoint. The media interview people who are great exceptions to the rule and then portray them like they are the majority or normative for the south, as Neil posted. This causes people to practically think the South is still clannish and under the KKK. This stereotype or perception is wrong and does not come from fact. Why does it continue? Someone feeds that perception.. so who do you think it is, mattuk?

As for reuters.. they are leftist in slant as was evidenced in the fact that they were strongly among the ones who touted and published a great deal on the false numbers report for casualties out of Iraq. They lost my respect when they did that, as they did so without fact checking. They could just as easily go with the two headed man from Mars, if they don't check their stories and sources for bias. At that time, I couldn't get through the news (at reuters) without their constantly, nauseatingly continuing to say millions.. no BILLIONS.. of people had died (I exaggerate for effect, but not much). This is only the most prominent among their gross exaggerations and inaccuracies which have stood out over time. So they may have some good reports, but to totally trust any leftist biased source as being completely accurate is not wise, as that and other examples which come to mind (like the fake Iraqi who kept on "reporting" from Iraq, whose word the media took as gospel and as "eyewitness" without checking the facts, etc) have shown.
QUOTE:

Shocker: Soros Funded Fake Iraq Body Count
From the UK’s Times:

Anti-war Soros funded Iraq study
Brendan Montague
Sunday, January 13, 2008

A study that claimed 650,000 people were killed as a result of the invasion of Iraq was partly funded by the antiwar billionaire George Soros.

Soros, 77, provided almost half the nearly $100,000 cost of the research, which appeared in The Lancet, the medical journal. Its claim was 10 times higher than consensus estimates of the number of war dead.

The study, published in 2006, was hailed by antiwar campaigners as evidence of the scale of the disaster caused by the invasion, but Downing Street and President George Bush challenged its methodology…

“The authors should have disclosed the [Soros] donation and for many people that would have been a disqualifying factor in terms of publishing the research,” said Michael Spagat, economics professor at Royal Holloway, University of London.

The Lancet study was commissioned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and led by Les Roberts, an associate professor and epidemiologist at Columbia University. He reportedly opposed the war from the outset…

Professor John Tirman of MIT said this weekend that $46,000 of the approximate $100,000 cost of the study had come from Soros’s Open Society Institute.

Roberts said this weekend: “In retrospect, it was probably unwise to have taken money that could have looked like it would result in a political slant. I am adamant this could not have affected the outcome of the research.”

The Lancet did not break any rules by failing to disclose Soros’s sponsorship.

===

Surprise, surprise, eh?

This finding will now run at the top of every news cast and on the front page of every newspaper, just like the original bogus study did.

Of course it will.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/shocker-soros-funded-fake-iraq-body-count

They give their viewpoint.. who do you believe?

Sara.

-- June 6, 2008 2:32 PM


cornishboy wrote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6/06/08

UAE looks to Iraq to be an active partner in the Gulf Cooperation Council

The Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a press conference held at the headquarters of the Iraqi Foreign Ministry and the presence of Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari that "Iraq currently needs to be encouraged by the brothers must compensate his death and the region as well." He added, "We must Recognition that some countries in the region had to take some time to understand the new Iraq, especially after it has seen many changes. "Pointing out that Bahrain looks forward to Iraq to be an active partner in the Gulf Cooperation Council.

He commended the Foreign Minister of United Arab Emirates Iraqi government role in the process of national reconciliation "and work hard for security and development of the domestic economy of Iraq."

He explained that the debt issue of concern to the Iraqi government, saying the UAE has sought to address these matters as quickly as necessary to serve the two countries.

www.burathanews.com

-- June 6, 2008 5:33 PM


Sara wrote:

Bashers Beware
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
May 19, 2008

The Presidency: It takes little courage — or brains — to join the mob vilifying President Bush. But the Democrats (and Republicans, too) depicting him as villain will one day regret it.

In the eyes of members of both parties, George W. Bush seems to be the cause of everything from the recent GOP special election losses to a flagging economy to today's bad weather.

Barack Obama plans to reach the White House by claiming the presidency of Sen. John McCain would amount to a third Bush term. McCain, meanwhile, seems to think it a wise campaign strategy to highlight his differences with the president, such as outgreening the greens on global warming.

Rep. Tom Davis, former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, reflected the panic engulfing many Republicans in Congress last week when he called President Bush "absolutely radioactive" and warned, "They've got to get some separation from the president" if they want to win this November.

How about a dose of reality?

On the economy, there are indications the sun is coming out after a fairly mild economic storm. More data are showing a recession will be avoided, and it looks like a new bull market in stocks began in March after a short and shallow bear.

The report earlier this month of 20,000 jobs lost in April was far better than had been expected, and unemployment remains low at 5%.

There is undeniably a lot of gloom and doom out there, with the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index at a 26-year low. But the National Association for Business Economics announced Monday that it expects the current downturn to be mild and brief.

NABE "anticipates a significant pickup in the second half" with real GDP for 2009 projected to be 2.9%. It may not even classify this downturn as a recession at all.

For the resilience of this economy, we can thank the president. He pushed substantial tax cuts on income and investment through Congress, which were followed by four years of growth, generating over 8 million jobs.

The president also can be thanked for appointing Ben Bernanke, chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, to succeed Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve chief. Bernanke has moved on several fronts to keep the economy afloat — including creatively making more credit available to combat the subprime mortgage crisis.

As for national security, Obama keeps saying the war in Iraq and the rest of the administration's foreign and defense policy have, as he put it last week in South Dakota, "prevented us from making this country safe." But the country is safer than anyone expected after 9/11.

There has not been a single terrorist attack on the homeland, and we have instead foiled multiple terrorist plots to kill innocent Americans. America has succeeded in foiling these plots because Bush gave the National Security Agency the authority to monitor any and all communications of suspected terrorists, by telephone, e-mail or other means.

The president also gave authorization for the CIA to employ tough interrogation methods on terrorists in custody, to the extent of transporting those detainees to secret locations abroad.

As we have prevented the terrorists from taking their jihad to the U.S., we have taken the global war on terror to the terrorists' home soil. We have given Muslims in the Middle East the opportunity for freedom in Iraq, proving that we are willing to spill our blood and expend our own resources to defend our interests as we promote their liberty.

When faced with the entire Washington establishment demanding an end to the war — including his own father's secretary of state, James Baker — President Bush stuck to his guns, placed a new general in charge and employed a surge strategy that is now winning the war in Iraq in resounding fashion.

This is the supposed albatross Republicans are so intent on distancing themselves from and which Democrats believe to be the key to victory in November. The facts of the last seven years tell a different story.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=296089399926740

Comments (June):

1) JohnMG

When I think of all the insults and baseless accusations that have been thrown at GWB, and reflect on the dignified way that he has conducted himself through all the bds-bashing he has endured, I marvel at his character. Contrast this with the way Bill Clinton has reacted as recently as three days ago, and then tell me again, who is the better man.

While I often find myself disagreeing with the president, I feel he has done a remarkable job maintaining his focus through all the adversity. None of the three remaining candidates measure up. Obama claims to be a Christian, Hillary speaks of her deep abiding faith (where is it?), and McCain scarcely references Christianity at all. Not only does George W. profess it–he lives it publicly, displaying the courage of his convictions. Few could do better.

2) texaspsue

JohnMG, The worst part of it all is the MSM has been successful at distorting and propagandizing President Bush’s message to a point where many Republicans/Conservatives have ended up believing the MSM. So very many issues were wrongly assessed and explained. I guess I’m so defensive because I followed President Bush closely on his stand on the issues while he was Texas Governor and understood what he went to Washington to accomplish. What most Americans ended up hearing was totally different than his actual stand. Pure and simple, the MSM and the Democrats messed up his message so that Conservative legislation would not be passed. Granted, 9/11 sidedtracked and stalled Legislative progress, but, maybe if the Republicans in Congress had stood by his side a little more, a lot more could have been accomplished. (They seemed to run around like “chickens with their head cut off” in fear of the Democrats and it became impossible for them to get their message out on the MSM. It’s why they lost in 2006.)

It makes me wonder if McCain has the strength to withstand this abuse? I’m just saying……………..

3) JohnMG

texaspsue; …..”It makes me wonder if McCain has the strength to withstand this abuse?…..”

I have no doubt that McCain COULD stand the abuse. His determination and stamina in the “Hanoi Hilton” give testimony to that. What bothers me is that he likely won’t HAVE to stand it. While Mr Bush was/is not as conservative as I would liked to have seen, his motives were/are well-intentioned, and he made sincere efforts at compromise and bi-partisan governance without caving in to the pressure. McCain’s propensity to throw his own party members, especially its conservative base, under the bus is troubling in the least. He will maintain a cordial relationship with the MSM because of this tendency, and they will go easy on him so long as his views and policies more closely appproximate those of the democrats. This won’t be much of a chore for him, because his views and policies already ARE closer to those of the democrats than they are to those of the party of which he is purportedly the leader. The only two areas where McCain might approximate Bush is in his determination to prosecute the war on terror, and the liklihood that he would appoint conservative justices to the judiciary–especially the supreme court. Maybe tax cuts too, but we’ll have to see about that, should he get elected. (For these reasons, I will vote for him, but for few others.) Beyond that, the democrats will not have to fight real hard to get the things they want, and the press will give him a pass.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/other-news-for-the-week-of-may-31-june-6#comment-112016

-- June 6, 2008 9:58 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara and all:

Did we not predict that the country would go into financial chaos when the Dems won Congress 18 months ago?
Conservatives COULD HAVE CHANGED THAT......but they chose to stay home on election day!

Doesn't anybody know how to do the 2+2=4 thing anymore?????

You and my husband chant the same song......"there gonna get what they asked for....."

I think the inevitable will prove you both very right.

While, I have not been totally sold out to Bush during his reign, I am amazed as to why Republicans would want their candidate to distance himself! If Mc Cain would hold to the values of the Bush campaign,( although he would be faking it!) it woud draw out the VALUE VOTERS, as it did against John Kerry.

The Dems did not see it coming, and were in shock when Kerry lost. They put their faith in the polls!

They underestimated the power of the solid right base. While the electoral count was close.....the popular vote was unprecedented.

Mc Cain and main stream Republicans are nauseatingly blindsighted! The proof is that Mc Cain is the candidate! What in God's name were they thinking??????


Carole

-- June 6, 2008 11:09 PM


NEIL wrote:

I have to agree with Carole and Sara that Mr. McCain almost makes me vomit but he is all we have. We rejected Mitt Romney who was a Statesman with stellar character who would have enhanced the prestiege of this country troughout the world.

Mr. Bush has done an honorable job in running this country but he had played hell with the economy. Sure, we are doing O.K. right now but it is with borrowed money. In his 8 years we have gone from 5 trillian in debt to 9 trillian. Even Bill Clinton, as screwed up as he was, was operating on a paying basis when he left the white house. You can ask any old-timer in the South when the economy looks gloomy and he will tell you that all we need is another good war. What he remembers that in 1940 that he was on the verge of starving when WWII began and the economy immediately picked up and jobs were available everywhere, but this happened because the U.S. Govt began borrowing money and pumping it into the economy. You can take the most down-and-out, destitute family in this Country and let them borrow $100,000. and they will immediately perk up
and be in good shape again. I contend that we are on a slippery-slope when our prosperity depends on how much money we borrow. Someone is going to have to pay this money back. Every cent that is owed is in the form of a treasury note or equivalent and someone fully expects to get their money back at some point. Who is going to pay this money back?

This stimulus that everyone is receiving is borrowed money and if there is no consequence to continueing to borrow money, then lets borrow enough to let everyone get $10,000.00 so that it will be a more significant stimulus.

I know that the general thinking is that we don't have to pay back anything for a while yet, so lets don't worry about it. There is a day of reckoning coming that we need to be concerned about.

-- June 6, 2008 11:15 PM


Laura Parker wrote:

Neil,

I know what you mean. I spent my economic stimulus on new kitchen cabinets to stimilate the economy. But I too am concerned about the USA borrowed monies. The USA is in a mess in this economy and the bill will become due. That is a concern to me too.

Laura Parker

-- June 6, 2008 11:42 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Neil,

I agree with you, that it is foolish, to live, too much, on borrowed money. That's one of the reasons I think it is absolutely imperative, that America finish, and win, the war, in Iraq. The entire American economy depends completely on oil, and cheap oil is hard to come by.

If America wins the war, in Iraq, the Iraqis will become wealthy, and American companies will be over there, making an awful lot of money. This will be a huge boost, to the American economy, and ensure a reliable source of energy, for America, for decades to come. With victory in Iraq, there will be so much money to be made, that the national debt and the cost of the war, could be paid off, fairly easily.

If America loses, or runs, with it's tail between it's legs, it will be left with a huge national debt, which you mention, and it will be at the mercy of the Iraqi government, as to whether or not the supply of oil for America, is secure. The oil laws being contemplated, in Iraq, right now, would ensure that both America, and Iraq, become much more prosperous, by developing Iraq's resources, together.

If America loses, it will have to pay off it's huge national debt, and the huge cost of the war, without the bump of a secure energy supply. That will be very difficult. If Iraq's oil supply is developed, I expect the price of oil to drop, and that will be a tremendous long term boost, to the American economy.

Frankly, I think the Democrats are incredibly reckless, in their position on the war. They are painting a picture, to the public, that America could simply exit the stage, in Iraq, and their would be no dire or unintended consequences. I think that is a lie. I think the consequences of America leaving, with the job undone, would be enormous, and negative.

War is a terrible thing. But if it is handled properly, it can lead to a better future, for people. It was certainly beneficial to get rid of Adolf Hitler. This war is no different. It has brought much destruction, and if handled properly, can lead to a better world, for our children, and grandchildren. To have the benefits the war will bring: prosperity, and democracy to the middle east, a secure supply of energy, for America, into the future, will require sacrifice. That means staying in Iraq. There's no free lunch in life.

There are many other reasons, to stay, and win, but the economic reasons should not be underestimated. Leaving Iraq, with the job half done, would be a financial disaster, for the United States.

-- June 6, 2008 11:50 PM


Roger wrote:

Debt in the US,

Well it is not a nice picture, but the ordinary way of living here in the US is "Buy now, pay later".

A CC is a convenient way of handling money, as is debit card , warehouse cards, gas cards, you name it.

It is an almost cashless society.

The up side is that money is almost always injected into the economy, and it keeps the wheels rolling, but the down side is that the car is driven with borrowed money.

The universal law of the lender being the Master and the Borrower being the Slave holds true.

The set up will be very vulnerable for ups and downs in the economy.

Lenders are also borrowing, in an endless cycle, and when a credit crunch comes along, well, as they say, shit flows downwards.

That makes the man on the street the consumer part of the credit line, and that makes the society vulnerable for big swings in the economy, high tide, low tide endlessly.

That particular vulnerability is cured very easy, by educating the public to use sensible economic planning.

Would any house hold in the US have a saving as big as their debt right now, we would be sailing and cruising.

There has though, started a little bit a mission, if you may, by some financial educators on talk radio. I think that the most famous is Dave Ramsey, where he preaches a "Debt free Life".

It's actually economical speaking, a very healthy program he advocates, and would the whole nation adapt to debt free living, there would be no Borrowers = slaves, syndrome.

Most other nations, have a much much higher saving per capita than the US, and in fact, it doesn't really make sense to continuously live on borrowed money that you will pay back with interest when you get payed next months paycheck.

Future money is very expensive money, and living now on future expensive money, will feed the lender.

If the system is ingrained very much, as it is here in the US, in the population, the economy it self will start to circle around borrowers, and lenders, interest rate and Peter paying Paul.

Lending and borrowing classically have revolved around investments, of bigger magnitude, cars, trucks, houses, industrial investments and so on, but a sick strain of lending and borrowing have the last 30 or 40 years or so, made inways in "educating" the public that , it is ok to get what you want, even if it is above your head, and you can't really afford it, and it is above your economic means.

-"No interest for six months", "no credit check", "your job is your credit"," No money down", and so on.

A persons credit rating is based on how much credit a person can have and be able to pay and sustain that credit.

With other words, it is a scale of how much credit pain, a person is able to hold up.

Ad's ( by lenders) are eager to denote very high importance in a persons credit rating, and sure enough, soon enough the population starts to brag about what credit rating they have, like it is status.

It is not, it is a rating on how much of a sucker a person is, that's all.

The lenders have the advantage in ad's, commercials and advertisements, all emphasize the "Importance" of a good credit rating.

Lending and borrowing have it's place, but borrowing have by some mysterious hokus pokus being transferred from a loan, taken to pay for a house or industrial investment, carefully planned into the personal finances into,..... ANY payment.

This is one of the main reasons the US economy is very vulnerable to the smallest swings, and if a creditor in Asia or Europe is tighten it's grips, it will easily do ripples all the way down to the local economy.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the society ended up with almost no production, and the first years afterwards, the main population had a hard time even surviving.

Still the society didn't collapse.

Most people lives in apartments, and few had cars, unlike here in the US, where you need wheels, without it, you can not even function here.

Before the Soviet collapse, the population had been given a 100 by 100 meter plot, close to their apartment complexes, where they could grow whatever they liked.

It is amazing to conclude in the aftermath, that 90% of Russia's agricultural goods came from those small gardens.

After the collapse, the busses still rolled, and people could travel, no one repaired the apartments, but then again, there was no one there to collect rent either, so it didn't matter.

The first couple of years, after the collapse, you could see a lot of people on the streets, trying to sell anything they had, grandchildren's old toys, whatever.

In one way or the other they manage to survive a complete collapse, and they survived on very little, until some wheels started to roll again a few years later.

Why, well the fundamentals were there for survival, shelter, a means of food and transportation.

US have very little to fall back on in case of a collapse. Cars, homes and land is to a large degree mortgaged, and when the lender / Master, borrowing /slave syndrome kicks in, the Master wins, and the Slave loses.

The 30's depression caused borrowers in droves from their Midwest homes.

The basic means of survival, is not owned right out, and shelter, and transportation is as vulnerable, as it is borrowed against.

And it all starts so innocent, "buy now pay later", "no payments for two months", "cash back when you buy a car", "improve your credit rating".

If on top of it all, is not produced here, we are buying, on credit, a foreign countrys, product, pay them, and borrow some more.

That cycle is not sustainable, and WILL collapse eventually.

It can be a had landing or it can be a soft landing, if measures are taken to soften the fall

However, even if this seem like very simple things to understand, the push for "buy now, pay later" and consumption of foreign goods continues like there is no tomorrow.

-- June 7, 2008 3:04 AM


Carole wrote:

Roger,

Excellent synopsis of our impending credit crisis. So very well out and easy to follow. I think our fathers ( born in the very early 1900's) after survivng the depresssion, learned this lesson well. And so it went on for maybe the nest 50 years.
I can remember when we would get credit cards on the mail and we didn't even apply for them. I think that was in the late 60's or early 70's.

Thank God my husband and I got trapped at that time. We over extended ourselves and had to work multiple jobs to pay off our credit cards. Ripped them up and have never had another one since.

However, buying homes and cars has been quite a different story. yes, we Americans are the credit slaves. In my profession I have been exposed to alot of foreigners trying to make it in the US. Multiple families buy one home and they all work to pay it off and then start to help one of the families get their own home. They repeat the process until everyone has their own home. I have seen them do thiss with cars too. However, over the last 25 years, I have also seen their young become "westernized" and now part of the credit slave industry.

My daughters as well as most people that I now that own Dinars, express the first thig they will do is pay off thier credit cards when the Dinar hits!

There are credit cosultants that charge a great deal of money to give advice to pay off credit cards. they call it debt stacking......funny, back in the 70's when we found ourselves so strapped, it is exactly what we did to grt out from under the trap. And we just figured it out for free!

And you are sooooo right about the credit score being a social symbol of success! I have a son-in-law that makes 350k a year, his credit score is 802 and he can not borrow a dime because his debt to ratio income is incredible. As well as I have a friend who has never charged anything and can't get credit to uy anything,,,,,cause he has no credit score. So now he has applied for all kinds of credit cards, so he can get a good credit rating!!!! HMMMMM conspriacy or not?

Anyway thanks for your post.

carole

-- June 7, 2008 5:16 AM


Carole wrote:

Roger,
Sorry for all the typos.......middle of the night and new nails! :)

Carole

-- June 7, 2008 5:20 AM


Carole wrote:

Neil,

You are so right about Mitt! I didn't vote for him because i did ot think he could sustsain his affilation witht eh Mormon Church!
Cheeze! Did I call that werong!

With all the anti american crap that we have ahd to hear about linked to Obama, and all the disgraceful personal informationj about Mc cain that will for sure hit the press here soon, not to mention his political profile looking more like as democrat than most democrats, Mitt would have swept up the conserative vote, for sure in the general election.

Mc Cain can not draw parity to the large crowds that follow Obama, which has created the synergy that surrounds him. This synergy has deafened the ears and soften the brains of his followers, so that they have gotten caught up in the drift of excitement and are not responding to even the most horrendous revelations about him.

I now believe that Mitt would have been able to build that same synergy, so that even though he is linked to LDS, with the spotlight on the radical scandal going on in Texas and Utah.....the synergy would have drowned out the scandal, and people would have taken a deaf ear to it as well.....only Mitt is an undisputed true American, with a resume on financial leadership, family values, AS WELL AS HIS WIFE LOVES AMERICA WITH ALL HER HEART! AND IS A SURVIVOR OF A CATASTROPHIC ILLNESS.......NOT DRUG ADDICTION, LIKE CINDY MC CAIN!

Kicking myself over this one!

Carole

-- June 7, 2008 5:38 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Roger,

I agree with you, on credit. But a large chunk of the economy depends on people spending foolishly, and living on credit. It's what keeps the system going. If people started acting sensibly, when it comes to money, it would require the biggest restructuring of the economy, ever. I am a big fan of capitalism, myself, but most people equate capitalism, with how people spend their money now, including rampant endless consumerism, as being one and the same. I think that is wrong. I believe we are, as a culture, quite flawed, in how we use capitalism. Greed and bad judgement distort the system. Capitalism, if it is practiced, without a population with a good moral and financial education, will eventually collapse, I believe.

And I don't think that most religious leaders and thinkers, give this much thought, they more or less uncritically go along with the financial status quo and the interests of business and consumerism, for better or for worse. I think this is a big moral mistake. Religion should be there to think critically and morally about the choices made within the capitalist system, and to guide people, morally when it comes to money and education.

I have believed, for a long time, that there are plenty of physical resources around, that each of us can have a safe and economically secure future, and the reason most people have to work as hard as they do, has to do with mismanagement of resources. This mismanagement includes foolish use of resources, whether at a personal, or societal level. Most people know very little about the proper use of money.

Our educational system does very little to teach people about the proper use of money, credit, and other resources. Most Americans watch about 4 hours of TV a day, most of their life, and one of the primaryj jobs of TV, is to promote greed, and feckless use of resources. It encourages people to be foolish with their money. After a lifetime of conditioning and brainwashing, to make people financial suckers, by the media and the neglect of financial education by the school system, most people end up financial suckers, who misuse credit. For example, the entire housing industry is set up, with long term credit, to allow people to buy a home, and work work work, to pay it off, for decades. That's a form of economic slavery, which is quite amusing if you think about it, because most Americans go on and on about "freedom". I'm a big fan of freedom myself, but I think freedom should include as much economic freedom as possible. What's the use of political freedom, if the population is enslaved by their foolish desires, and bad judgement, into being economic slaves? Fnancial freedom could come to whole lot more people, if the economic system, and the educational system, were reformed, around good morals, and a sensible view of money.

It's very hard to escape the system, because it's everywhere, and this credit centred capitalism, that relies on foolish use of resources, has become a good chunk of the economy. And with attutudes toward credit, by the average person, being what they are, is it any wonder, the government, has no problem living far beyond it's means? And as you say, eventually, the whole thing will collapse.

So, I'm all pro capitalism. I am a businessman, myself, and have run businesses for the past 18 years. I think capitalism is the best method ever devised, for creating wealth, and lifting people, out of economic misery. I just think it's often mismanaged, and misused. I think people need sound financial education in school, so they can use the power of capitalism, and credit, sensibly, and for their own benefit, and the benefit of their families, based on prudent finanicial values, and decent moral choices, rather than being slaves to an economic system designed to milk a person, of their life energy, and promote greed, and silly, materialistic choices.

Your comments are appreciated. At a whole societial economic level, I think most Americans have no idea just how vulnerable their economic system really is. It could collapse in a matter of months, if the wrong things happen. Credit and the silly use of money, is a large part of this vulnerability.

This vulnerability also includes energy vulnerability in the equation. The American economy is incredibly dependent on foreign oil. If the average American knew just how vulnerable and dependent the American economy was, on foreign oil, they'd fill their pants.

That's why I am in favour of America staying in Iraq, for a few more decades. America needs time to reform their economy, by developing alternative and new energy sources. That's why I think Barrock Obama would lead America toward a cliff, if he's president, and America withdraws form Iraq.

I think Neil is right to be worried, about the misuse of credit. The chickens will eventually come home to roost.

-- June 7, 2008 6:16 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

I have sat in Bible believing and teaching pews of churches for over 40 years. My experience has been one where the pulpit messages have placed at the Hallmark of Christlike behavior to be good stewards of our money and other resources. When we are good stewards of the blessigs God has given us it opens up the door to all other Christ-like attrtibutes, like generosity, sacrifice and love toward our fellowman. When you are strapped financially, at best you can only exhibit "good intentions".

Your perceptions might be well founded but my experience has been gratefully quite the opposite.

Thanks for your post!

Carole

-- June 7, 2008 7:22 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

I don't know the American statistics, but in Canada, only around 5% of the population ends up, financially independent, upon retirement age. The rest end up depending on mainly government and also company pension plans. In my view, this is abysmal. One of the goals of a capitalist system should be to empower the individual to create and preserve independent wealth, during their lifetimes.

That's one of the motivators, of why we are all investing here, in the Dinar, isn't it? We wish to have an independent source of wealth. Nothing wrong with that. It's a good thing. I think it is something most people desire. That's why lottery tickets are so popular.

Well, shouldn't things be set up to encourage more people to become financially independent? I think so. I think that should be one of the basic goals of a capitalist system: to create independent wealth for people.

It's not that we don't have the resources. We do.

I remember, when I smoked briefly, when I was younger, I was up to 2 packs a day. I was struggling to quit, and I did quit for good. At the time, I was taking a math course. My instructor said if I gave up smoking, took the money I would have used on cigarettes, and invested it, for 30 years, I could be well on my way to being financially independent. I did the math, and he was right.

I invested enough to do reasonably well, but I wish I had done more, when I was younger. Perhaps if I had been taught anything in school about it, I might have. It wouldn't have taken much sacrifice, if I had started earlier, and been more consistent. I only started getting quite serious about it, by the time I was 35, and if I started earlier, I'd be further ahead.

Generally, I learned nothing about money, at school. It seems to me, one of the primary objectives of an education, and the school system, should be to teach and educate a person, so that the average individual has enough knowledge, once they leave school, to become financially independent, if they wish, by their mid-40s. This is more than possible.

I wish for a society where a large chunk of the population is financially independent, and has a house paid for, by the time they are 40. That seems a reasonable goal. I believe there are lots of policy changes that could be put in place, to move us toward that goal. After all, if it doesn't create a lot of wealth, and financial independence, for the majority of people, what else is the point of the capitalist system?

Democrats always emphasize the redistribution of wealth. They do so because they realize, quite rightly, there are enormous inequities, in wealth distribution, in America, and they often emphasize re-distributing that wealth, as the key to a more just society. I disagree with that philosophy. I agree with the Democrats that there are enormous inequities, in wealth. However, I don't want wealth redistributed. I just want more people to have the knowledge, to really benefit from the capitalist system, and be rich themselves. Don't take someone else's pie, just make sure everyone can bake their own, that's my philosophy.

Of course, in the context of the entire world, America is much better than most places. That's why people want to go there, as immigrants. I just think that, as good as America often is, it could be much, much better. I'd like to see that.

So, anyhow, I'm sure most people who go to church try to be good stewards of their resources, given what they know. I just think the vast majority of people, churchgoing or not, have never been educated enough about money, to attain financial independence. I think most people could do much, much better. And I think that is something most people desire. They just have no idea how to go about doing it. It requires knowledge. It's no different than nursing. Your knowledge of that profession didn't just fall from a tree, and hit you on the head one day. It required years of training.

I think the same thing is true of financial knowledge. Some people are born, naturally smart, about money, and interested in it, and do well. Most people are interested in other things, and are never educated in this, enough, to do well.

I've taken an interest in various investments, for over a decade, and learned a lot, and that, of course, is exactly what we are doing here, isn't it? We're investing in something. We're learning about that investment. It's just an unusual investment. We're hoping it works. I think it will. I feel fully confident that it will. We all may have different interests, when coming here.

Roger seems interested in economics.

Sara is very passionate about religion.

You're quite passionate about politics. I'm interested in history.

Rob N. is the most focused on exactly what is happening, in Iraq.

Laura seems interested in terrorism.

Neil seems to look at the big picture, and wondering if there is foolishness going on.

But the common link, and motivator, to all of these, is, one of the primary motivators, revolves around money. We'd all like to make a lot of money out of this. I sure do. I'm here for the conversation, but I'm definitely here for the money. I'm not here to throw away my money.

This forum is about many things. Making money from our investment is surely one of them. All of the other stuff people bring here is incredibly interesting, and important, but without the financial component, I doubt many of us would be here.

-- June 7, 2008 2:08 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts said, "At a whole societial economic level, I think most Americans have no idea just how vulnerable their economic system really is. It could collapse in a matter of months, if the wrong things happen. Credit and the silly use of money, is a large part of this vulnerability. This vulnerability also includes energy vulnerability in the equation. The American economy is incredibly dependent on foreign oil. That's why I am in favour of America staying in Iraq, for a few more decades. America needs time to reform their economy, by developing alternative and new energy sources. That's why I think Barrock Obama would lead America toward a cliff, if he's president, and America withdraws form Iraq."

I agree with the discussion so far and this synopsis of the vulnerability of the economy to credit use and oil. In particular, that statement of yours I highlighted hit me as true. That is because there is another factor, one which I said "maybe we need to compromise on" or give up on in order to get McCain elected.. and it may blindside us all if we are not careful. Carole said she was wrong on Mitt.. maybe I was wrong about not sticking to our guns on this concern. But what can we DO, since the Whitehouse will be won by someone supporting this economy destroying tax increase? Here is my concern. Please read:

GOP Stops $5.6 Trillion Carbon Tax - For Now
From a despondent Associated Press:

Vote on climate bill is blocked in Senate
By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Senate Republicans on Friday blocked a global warming bill that would have required major reductions in greenhouse gases, pushing debate over the world’s biggest environmental concern to next year for a new Congress and president…

The Senate debate focused on bitter disagreement over the expected economic costs of putting a price on carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas that comes from burning fossil fuels. Opponents said it would lead to higher energy costs.

The 48-36 vote fell short of a majority, but Democrats produced letters from six senators — including both presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain — saying they would have voted for the measure had they been there.

“It’s just the beginning for us,” proclaimed Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., a chief sponsor of the bill, noting that 54 senators had expressed support of the legislation, although that’s still short of what would be needed to overcome concerted GOP opposition…

The bill would have capped carbon dioxide coming from power plants, refineries and factories, with a target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 71 percent by mid-century.

“It’s a huge tax increase,” argued Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, a prominent coal-producing state. He maintained that the proposed system of allowing widespread trading of carbon emissions allowances would produce “the largest restructuring of the American economy since the New Deal.”

Supporters of the bill accused Republicans of muddying the water with misinformation.

“There is no tax increase,” Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., one of the bill’s chief sponsors said. She said the emissions trading system would provide tax relief to help people pay energy prices. And supporters disputed that it would substantially increase gasoline prices…

Obama and McCain, as well as Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., who is recovering from cancer surgery, were absent, although they each sent a letter supporting the bill.

===

Oh, joy. So no matter what happens this election year, we will get this horrendous monstrosity of a tax increase — the largest in the history of mankind.

QUOTE: "The Senate debate focused on bitter disagreement over the expected economic costs of putting a price on carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas that comes from burning fossil fuels. Opponents said it would lead to higher energy costs." (end quote)

Opponents say a lot more than that.

Among other things, they have noted that this will cost the US taxpayer around $5.6 TRILLION (with a “T”) dollars. http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=07d28626-802a-23ad-47f0-cc9390cb3a9a

As a reference point, the whole federal budget for next year is expected to reach $3 trillion dollars.

The entire war in Iraq, which the Democrats tell us has been so crippling expensive, the Iraq war has only cost $845 billion.

But of course the opponents will have to buy advertisements to get such minor details out. That is, if Mr. McCain’s “reforms” will even permit such a thing.

The Associated Press certainly isn’t going to make their case for them. That’s not their job.

Their job is to help the Democrats destroy capitalism.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on Friday, June 6th, 2008.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/gop-holds-off-56-trillion-carbon-tax-for-now

-- June 7, 2008 2:18 PM


Sara wrote:

Where did Sadr's militia get the "helicopter missiles and an anti-aircraft gun".. and these other armaments (below)?
They certainly didn't manufacture them..
So who supplied the Sadr Militia with these weapons?
The head of the militia (Sadr) is now hiding out in friendly IRAN.. isn't he?
How friendly? Friendly enough so as to arm Sadr's followers, perhaps?

==

Seizures in Iraq reveal Sadr militia's arsenal
Saturday June 7, 2008

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi troops sweeping through the Baghdad stronghold of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have found large quantities of weapons, including helicopter missiles and an anti-aircraft gun, the U.S military said on Saturday.

Some 10,000 Iraqi government troops entered the sprawling slum of Sadr City unopposed on May 20 under a truce between Sadr's supporters and ruling Shi'ite political parties that ended weeks of fighting in which hundreds were killed.

A U.S. military statement itemizing the weapons seized in the last three weeks gave the first real glimpse of the formidable arsenal that Sadr's feared Mehdi Army militia has been building up.

The statement said government forces had seized 100 caches of weapons, including 295 mortar rounds, 367 AK-47s, 109 anti-tank mines, 39 rocket-propelled grenade launchers, an anti-aircraft gun, six helicopter rockets, sniper rifles, improvised explosive devices, 123 grenades and artillery shells.

Sadr City, a bastion of Sadr's Mehdi Army, had been off-limits to U.S. and Iraqi forces since the fall of Saddam Hussein in the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

But under the truce agreed earlier in May, the Mehdi Army agreed to lay down their weapons and allow Iraqi forces to enter the slum. The militia, while vowing not to hand over their heavy weapons, has melted away.

U.S. military officials say the Mehdi Army, which staged two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004, fuelled sectarian violence between majority Shi'ite Muslims and Sunni Arabs in 2006 and 2007 that pushed the country to the brink of civil war.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/080607/15/176ku.html

-- June 7, 2008 2:48 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Sara,

You're right. Getting economic policy right, is critical. If the wrong policies are brought, in, it would be a disaster. Economics, like life, is all about management, and choices. It's all about making the right decisions, and policy choices.

I haven't followed that tax discussion. Surely, like all taxes, it will have a negative impact, on many industries, and individuals. But where will all that tax money go? What are the Democrats planning on spending that money on?

-- June 7, 2008 2:53 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Thank you for your response. I think a pretty astute and accurate assesment would be to concede that there are very strong concentrated efforts within and without our nation to destroy Capitalism. SOOOOOO, the average guy hoping to attain financial freedom independent of Social Security, Private retirement funds, etc..... is pretty unlikely these days. As it stands now, the more information and education received on finances just produces frustration and hopelessness, in my opinion. A few of us got in under the wire!

The tax structure as well as other economic negative trends ( welfare, and the other multititude of entitlements...to name a very few),
assure that the Capitalism, that we once knew is so mutated that is realistically non -existent.

It is a shame, but it is what it is..

Sara,

Yep! we blew it concerning Romney ( and most of my family and friends feel the same way).

Maybe I could get up enough positive motivation for this election, if Romney gets VP spot.

I must share with you what I did not long ago out of desperation.

I looked into the Libetarian Party. I have always held out for a last ditch effort to change parties, but had never looked into it.
Wellllll.... forget it!

They are mambee pambee about everything. And on social issues, they take a "live and let live" stance.

Isn't it that mentality (started in the 60's or sooner) that got us in the mess we are in now?

Soooooo, short of a write-in ballot, I still am in a quandry as what to do on election day.

I was so entertained today at Hilary's absurd reluctance and resistance to "call it a day". Some of the pundits ( especially by Mike Wallace) had me chuckling all morning.

I still think it is a great possibility that Obama could be on that long list of Clinton associates who ended up in a coroners office with mysterious deaths, by some unexplainable accident or suicide. Don't think Hilary will give up delegates, until she has her day of reckoning.......whatever that heck that just might be.

Yep! you are right....the next 4 years is going to be horrific for this country. Maybe if we hang on and can survive, it will pave the way for an ultra conservative to bring us back 50 years, where we derailed.

OR.......a savior to rescue us from our woes.....and I don't mean Jesus!

Tim is right, it is the dinar that has brought us all together, and if that is all it accomplishes, it presents a Kodak moment, for which I am grateful!

carole

-- June 7, 2008 4:19 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq to sign deals with foreign oil firms this month - MEES

KUWAIT CITY (Thomson Financial) - Iraq intends to sign Technical Support Agreements (TSAs) with foreign oil majors by the end of June to add an eventual 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in output capacity, a specialist newsletter quoted the oil minister as saying.

Five consortia are in talks with the Iraqi government for the two-year contracts, the Middle East Economic Survey said in its edition to appear on Monday.

The agreements cover Kirkuk field (Shell), Rumaila (BP), Al-Zubair (ExxonMobil), West Qurna Phase I (Chevron and Total), Missan province development (Shell and BHP Billiton) and the Subba and Luhais fields (Anadarko, Vitol and the UAE's Dome), MEES said.

'Four companies have been informed that time is running out,' Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani told the newsletter, as his ministry continues to push hard to fast-track the TSA signings.
Shahristani said the companies have been given the option of being paid in either cash or crude.

The TSAs are a bridging contract designed to fast-track foreign oil involvement in Iraq, while a new hydrocarbons law has yet to be passed by the Iraqi parliament.

Shahristani said Iraq hoped to add 300,000 bpd of output capacity by the end of this year.

Iraq is also working to launch an upstream bidding round this year that, unlike the TSAs, is expected to require the prior passage of the new hydrocarbons law.

'We are working on a development round. We have a draft contract prepared. We are working towards having it ready for July,' the minister said.

Iraq's current output is estimated at around 2.5 million bpd.

http://www.hemscott.com/news/static/tfn/item.do?newsId=64888366344909

-- June 8, 2008 10:03 AM


Sara wrote:

I agree with your "Kodak moment" statement, Carole - and timbitts' original statement, too. I was reading a couple of days back an article which says people become friends based on shared proximity, not necessarily shared values or interests and I was thinking how that applied here with the Dinar boards. The article speaks of "group assignments" in a work setting as an example. (smile) I think of this as a kind of "group assignment" for us all - we are investigating the Dinar and everything else that bears on that investment and I think we all have created that "Kodak moment" which comes from that shared collaboration.

==

Are People More Likely To Become Friends Based on Proximity Or Shared Values and Interests?

ScienceDaily (Jun. 4, 2008) — The actor Sir Peter Ustinov once famously said “Contrary to general belief, I do not believe that friends are necessarily the people you like best, they are merely the people who get there first.” Psychologists now believe there is some truth to this argument. Rather than picking our friends based on intentional choice and common values and interests, our friendships may be based on more superficial factors like proximity (think neighbors) or group assignments (your department at work).

Mitja Back, Stefan Schmukle, and Boris Egloff of the University of Leipzig sought to test the notion that random proximity and random group assignment at zero acquaintance would foster friendship in the long run. The researchers investigated 54 college freshmen upon encountering one another for the first time at the beginning of a one-off introductory session and randomly assigned them a seat number in a group of chairs organized in rows.

As reported in a recent issue of Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, sitting in neighboring seats as a result of randomly assigned seat numbers when meeting for the first time led to higher ratings of friendship intensity one year later. The same was true even if participants were merely in the same row.

The counterintuitive finding suggests that friendships may not be as deliberate we think. “In a nutshell,” write the authors, “people may become friends simply because they drew the right random number.”

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080602163842.htm

In a way, we Dinarians became associated in this online "friendship" simply due to drawing on the same investment.
A seemingly random event.. but I think God is over it all. :)
I appreciate all of you whom I have come to know through this venture and thank you for the contributions you've made which have enriched our journey together.

Sara.

-- June 8, 2008 10:24 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole and board;
Seriously, you should watch this youtube video by Hannity.
Sobering..

===

Will Media Ignore Obama-Khalidi Connection?
By John Stephenson
June 7, 2008

Add another one to the ever-growing list of radical connections and friendships of Obama.

Ed Morrisey:

"Khalidi, a Yasser Arafat toady, got $75,000 through Obama and Weather Underground terrorist William Ayers from the Woods Foundation, and later Khalidi returned the favor by hosting a fundraiser for Obama. Obama “lavished praise” on Khalidi in 2003 when the former PLO functionary took a job at Columbia University, according to an LA Times article last year. It’s hardly ancient history, and Khalidi is hardly an acquaintance." (end quote)

==

Instead of reporting on dangerous and questionable connections like this, the media would rather print cotton candy pieces describing Obama as a "lightworker" and enlightened being. Why is Hannity the only media I’ve heard report on this? See Sean Hannity's video report (click on youtube url below) of the connections that the rest of the media is ingoring.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW4ZcY-VHA4

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/john-stephenson/2008/06/07/will-media-ignore-obama-khalidi-connection

-- June 8, 2008 10:46 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Thank you for the report and sweet sentiments. You always wrap things up so well.
I met a girl the first year in high school, because we were seated next to eachother. We were both transferred from different districts and as a result knew no one!

50 years later we are still best friends. And have ventured every life's experience together. I am a degreed nurse, she is a hair dresser. I married a policeman, her husband is an ex-con, and in and out of trouble their whole 40 years of mariage.

A common bond is that we are both full blooded Italian, and share many of those traditions. But, "she was there first", is probably the
"cement" factor.

I am thankful to this group, that has allowed me access, even though I am probably the least Dinar info contributor. Way back, when I first bought Dinars, and found this site, I used to spend hours and hours researching. However, for the last year or so, my caregiving has become a very fulltime job, and there is so much information posted, that it takes most of my time just reading this site.

Also, one of my biggest handicaps is that I don't know how to use the computer in a way that I can transfer interesting articles, and just don't have the time to re-write them, so I have to just let it go and hope that Rob or you will find it and post it....which happens more times than not.

One of the hundreds of things I want to do when mom is gone is to take a computer class. I have been writing a book on my experiences as mom's caregiver, both from a personal and professional perspective ( and yes, with political and social elements included, as you might guess). Computer skills, far beyond what mine are now will be essential.

Anyway, again thanks for your post.

carole

-- June 8, 2008 11:11 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

I watched the u-tube piece. Scary, at the very least. But the scariest reality is that it appears that no matter what or how Obama's anti-Israeli or American politics are discovered and exposed, there are millions and millions of voters, who ignore the facts!
The other day, the media categorized the Obama's following.....high precentage of well educated young voters.
Well, given the politcal platforms indoctrinated into our higher academia institutions, I can clearly see the connection. Can't you?

Another large segment of his following are poor impoverished Americans....and yes ignorant! That fits too! They could care less about his anti American affilliations, they only hear that he is going to create more "hand-out " programs, that spell out "big daddy" (govt.) will take care of you. This is in keeping with their Marxist agenda to control societies and has advanced socialism and communism to most 3rd world countries.(Black Liberation Theology)

Then you have the Black electorate, who are in the 98 percentile, of voting for Obama simply because of the race connection. They have an opporotunity to slap back at the "whites" for every real or imagined infraction put upon them by a white person or instiution.

It kind of goes along with the "whose there first" thinking. That black electorate would have connected to any "first" black, even if he would show up at political rallies wearing Arafat's head scarf!

Having said this, Hannity you and I and others, will continue to scratch our heads.......UNTIL we jump into the arena and beat them at their game! Which could mean alot of civil confrontations. However, I seriously doubt that will ever happen. Our judicial system has locked up that option with their "hate crime" legislations.

So, sweety, no matter how you look at it.....were toast......unless we can take on a revolution mentality. Which would demand that we give up our comfort zones....AND THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN!

HMMMMM....i need an Excedrin!

carole

-- June 8, 2008 11:47 AM


Carole wrote:

ROGER!

Before I commit hary kary :), I have a favor to ask or you.

Your most significant contribution here, in my opinion, is how you assess the political, economical, and militarial "HAPPENINGS" in the middle east particularly IRAQ to the projections ( correlations) of the Dinar future.

Well lots of new stuff has happened, and it appears that in all arenas there is growing stability or trends now established.

Will you please give us an update on your projections and predictions.....and basically what this all means?


Thanks so much,

Carole

-- June 8, 2008 11:54 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole; Trust in the LORD who rules over all and GIVES the kingdom (the Presidency and Congress of the United States of America) to whomsoever He wills:

Dan 4:17 This matter is by the decree of the watchers, and the demand by the word of the holy ones: to the intent that the living may know that the most High rules in the kingdom of men, and gives it to whomsoever He will...

Take heart, therefore, that God is in control and will see it through for His eternal purposes, as good people stand and do the right thing. Here is a good article in that regard, which contains statements showing that, for the media, reality is beginning to set in:

Last week, The Post published an editorial with the surprising headline, “The Iraqi Upturn: Don’t look now, but the U.S.-backed government and army may be winning the war.”

And the likely aftermath:

Obama’s Iraq position may have helped him win the nomination. But his inability to “change” could prove a significant vulnerability in the general election.

===

Obama misses the reality of progress in Iraq
Jun. 07, 2008
By E. THOMAS McCLANAHAN
The Kansas City Star

It’s odd how things turn out. Barack Obama’s long opposition to the Iraq war has been a big part of his success in clinching the Democratic presidential nomination.

But now his doggedly anti-war rhetoric sounds increasingly out of place. As recently as Tuesday, he told supporters he could not “pretend that there are many good options left in Iraq” — an astonishing statement in light of the dramatically changed circumstances.

Obama has favored immediate withdrawal, regardless of conditions on the ground. He has accused the Bush administration of merely “throwing troops at the problem.” He has even voted against funding ongoing combat operations.

He predicted the failure of the surge. After the additional troops were deployed, he said they should be removed immediately. “Not in six months or one year — now.”

Last week he sounded slightly more measured. He said that in getting out of Iraq, we must be as careful “as we were careless getting in.” Yet this is a man who has stayed in place as the situation on the ground has steadily improved. The ongoing success of the troop surge is undeniable to all but the most closed-minded opponents.

Late last month, The New York Times reported that recent Iraqi successes in Basra and Sadr City “appear to be stretching to the long-rebellious Sunni Arab district” in Mosul.

The Washington Post reported that in Sadr City, “A little over two weeks ago, U.S. troops were on the front lines of fierce, unrelenting urban warfare. But virtually overnight, their main mission has become one of rebuilding portions of the vast, tattered Shiite district … .”

Last week, The Post published an editorial with the surprising headline, “The Iraqi Upturn: Don’t look now, but the U.S.-backed government and army may be winning the war.”

Iraq, it said, passed a turning point last fall, thanks to the drop in violence stemming from the troop surge and the shift to a counterinsurgency strategy.

The old mission was search-and-destroy operations and force protection. The new mission is protection of the Iraqi population. Many leading Democrats called the plan “more of the same,” but the change in strategy — which Obama seems to have missed — made a tremendous difference.

In the search for turning points, the Iraqi army’s Basra operation earlier this spring also marked a major change, although initially it looked like a fiasco.

With disorder and violence on the rise in Basra, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki deployed more than 30,000 Iraqi troops without fully coordinating with the U.S. command. The Mahdi Army followers of the firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr fought back. Hundreds of Iraqi army troops deserted.

But the Iraqis didn’t back down. Disloyal soldiers were fired. Ineffective commanders were relieved. Coordination with coalition forces improved. A truce was arranged and the Iraqis gained control of the city.

The highly informative Westhawk blog, written by a former Marine company commander, noted that Basra was a major turning point because it proved that the Iraqis could stand and fight and make the adjustments needed to win: “The U.S. now has a clear path to achieve its goals in Iraq with a much smaller commitment of U.S. ground forces.”

The next president will probably have an opportunity to significantly draw down U.S. troops in Iraq. If so, it will be thanks to the success of the troop surge, and thanks to President Bush’s refusal to heed critics like Obama, who was eager to throw away the hard-won gains of our troops.

Obama’s Iraq position may have helped him win the nomination. But his inability to “change” could prove a significant vulnerability in the general election.

http://www.kansascity.com/275/story/654179.html

-- June 8, 2008 12:04 PM


Sara wrote:

Al Qaeda cell busted in Iraq: Mayor
June 8 2008

Iraqi police have dismantled an Al Qaeda cell of would-be suicide bombers in western Iraq and seized 50 explosive belts primed for use, a local Mayor said.

Sheikh Hikmat Jubair al-Kaud, Mayor of the town of Hit, said the arrests were carried out during a raid by special units of the police.

"These people belonged to an Al Qaeda cell which was preparing to carry out suicide attacks," he said. Police seized 50 vests stuffed with explosives and uncovered a workshop used to equip car bombs.

Hit lies in Al-Anbar province which was a bastion of the Sunni Arab insurgency which erupted shortly after the 2003 US-led invasion and a battleground in which the US military said it expelled the rebels in late 2004.

The US military has over the past 18 months been recruiting local tribal chiefs in both western and northern Iraq to join the fight against Al Qaeda.

According to the Mayor, the dismantled cell carried out a June 1 attack on a police checkpoint in Hit that killed nine people, including an officer.

"Those arrested are Iraqis but the group has also recruited foreign elements. The first confessions on the June 1 attack were made by a Palestinian," said Mr Kaud.

The US army said it made 49 arrests after that attack.

CIA chief Michael Hayden said in late May that Al Qaeda was essentially defeated in Iraq.

Mr Hayden told the Washington Post he was encouraged by US success against Al Qaeda's affiliates and by what he described as the rising competence of the Iraqi military and a growing popular antipathy toward jihadism.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/08/2268582.htm

-- June 8, 2008 12:08 PM


Sara wrote:


Iraq talks with Kuwait, Iran on shared oil
(Reuters)
8 June 2008

DUBAI - Iraq, home to the world's third largest proven oil reserves, is in talks with neighbouring Iran and Kuwait to reach a deal to pool shared oilfields, the London-based Asharq al-Awsat reported on Sunday.

"Iraq has entered negotiations with Kuwait and Iran," it quoted Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani as saying.

"We have informed them of the necessity of signing an agreement to unify the oil fields and to move away from a situation where each side has control from its side as that will bleed these fields in an uneconomical way."

Iraq is hoping for a further output boost after oil production and exports reached a post-war high in May.

The country, whose main source of revenue is oil, needs huge investment after decades of sanctions and war, but sabotage and oil smuggling have robbed it of billions of dollars and hampered reconstruction.

Delays in approving a long-awaited oil law to govern the industry have also held back investment in the sector.

Asharq al-Awsat did not say which oil fields Iraq was hoping to pool with its neighbours.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/focusoniraq/2008/June/focusoniraq_June33.xml§ion=focusoniraq

-- June 8, 2008 12:12 PM


Sara wrote:

Political change in Iraq.. will it be Reform and/or Alliance.. ??

==

6 Iraq Parliamentary Blocs Join Forces To Combat Sectarianism
Sunday, Jun 08, 2008

BAGHDAD (AP)--Six Iraqi parliamentary blocs have agreed to work together in a new alliance to combat sectarianism in the legislature and promote nationalistic goals, lawmakers said Sunday.

The alliance, to be formally announced soon, will not constitute a new political party but will involve efforts to coordinate moves to compete with the ruling coalition dominated by Shiite religious parties.

The alliance will include three Shiite parties -Fadhila, the National Reform Party of ex-Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and followers of hard-line cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, lawmakers said.

It will also include two Sunni parties - the National Dialogue Council and the Arab Bloc - and the secular Iraqi list of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.

"There is an agreement between all these blocs to coordinate and unify their stances inside the parliament," said Osama al-Nujaifi, a Sunni lawmaker with the Iraqi List. "We went through a bitter experience over the past two years" because of conflicts between secular and religious parties.

The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance is now holding only 85 of parliament's 275 seats, a dramatic drop from 130 it once held because of the withdrawal of the Sadrists and the Fadhila party.

The Sadrists, who hold 30 parliament seats, and Fadhila, with 15, accused the Shiite coalition of marginalizing them and complained that they were not getting enough say in decision-making.

"The parliament has become only a tool to pass whatever from laws that do not serve the Iraqi people," said Ghufran al-Saidi, a Shiite lawmaker with the Sadrist bloc.

"We are with any alliance that comes in line with our platform that aims at stabilizing Iraq and maintaining its national identity," al-Saidi added.

Last week, al-Jaafari announced he was setting up his own National Reform Party. Al-Jaafari had been a member of the Dawa party, which also includes Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidDN20080608002729

-- June 8, 2008 12:19 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Why We Fight

I rented a documentary, on the Weekend, called "Why We Fight". It was an anti-war documentary, that made an attempt to explain why America gets into wars. It had a left wing bias, in my opinion, but that didn't stop me from viewing it. I'm always open to listening to opinions that are contrary to my own.

It talked about Republican President Dwight Eisenhower's famous speech, on the dangers of the "Military-Industrial Complex", in the United States. Basically, what it was saying was, America has, for the first time in it's history, deliberately, through allocation of national governmental resources, constructed a very large part of it's economy, even in peace time, around the production of military armaments. (and that part, I think is true. I agree with that) And the documentary pushes the position that, this creates a military culture in the United States, that leads to a probability that war is more likely.

It's really the old, "guns kill people, people don't kill people" theory. I personally don't buy it. Sounds like the same logic as behind gun control. Now, if you look around the world, any time in history, for that matter, people always find a reason to fight. Most countries today don't have the military capability of the United States. Yet wars break out anywhere. So, I just don't think it is the presence of guns alone, that cause wars, as this video seem to suggest.

Furthermore, at the time America built up it's military-industrial complex, it had the Soviet Union to contend with. The build up of weapons on the Soviet side was enormous, and at one time, they were contesting America for leadership, in the world. A good chunk of the world had gone communist, as I recall, and at the height of the Cold War, it was certainly not clear, at that time, whether America or the Soviet Union, would prevail, on the world stage. It was not clear whether capitalism or communism, was the wave of the future.

Thankfully, no war broke out, with the Soviet Union, and America won the Cold War. However, America won the Cold War by building up military strength, so the premise of the documentary is false.

And now, this century, America faces, and will face in the coming years, what is in some ways a more deadly adversary: Islamic extremism. America is extremely vulnerable, economically. It depends on it's enemy for oil, the lifeblood of the American economy. While you can't pin Muslim extremism to one country, say Iraq, I think it's fair to say that how things go, in regards to the struggle against extremism, in Iraq, will say a lot about future struggles between America, and radical elements in Islam.

Islam, as a religion, is a defining feature of the region. Radical elements, within that religion, wish to destroy America. Most Muslims are fine people, in my opinion, but I am under no illusion about radical Islamic leaders, within that religion: they wish to destroy our way of life.

Of course, there are many rivalries, within Islam, and they cannot be thought of, as a single, simple entity, the way Americans could view the Soviet Union. This war will be much more complex. That's why it is so hard to explain to the public. How do you explain that you are fighting some people, but not all?

How do you explain American vulnerability, when it comes to oil? How do you explain that the enemy holds a product that your way of life depends on? How do you explain that America has friends in the Muslim world, but that at the same time, many there hate America? How do you explain the incredibly complex history of the region, and it's relationship to the West?

How do you explain the history of repression in the Arab world? And how Arabs used to have a brilliant and tolerant culture? How do you explain Islam, and talk about all the positive elements within that religion, and at the same time, talk about all the negatives within Islam? Why even bother? Scholars debate these things, for decades? Why would the public even be interested?

It's very difficult.

The confrontation between Islam and the West is very complicated, and difficult to explain.

I remember, in the documentary, they highlighted one man, who had lost his son, on 9-11. The father is a retired police officer, and Vietnam Vet. The father was very angry about his son dying in the twin towers. He wanted revenge. So he wrote to the military, and requested that his dead son's name be put on the side of one of the bombs going to Iraq. They complied. Then, the man heard President Bush on TV, a couple of years into the war, exlain that Iraq was not directly behind 9-11. The man was shocked. He felt betrayed. Like a lot of the public, he is not interested in the complexities of world politics. He sees this sort of thing in simple terms, much like the old black and white confrontation with the Soviet Union, where there was one clear and simple enemy. The man had assumed that America had one simple enemy, and if America was invading Iraq, it meant it was a simple story, and Saddam had directly ordered the attacks of 9-11. Now, Saddam did no such thing. He did, in fact harbour terrorists, but the story, as we all know, if much more complex, than this man envisioned. So, he felt betrayed because he didn't understand everything that was going on, and why, and so he started to suspect his leaders were deceiving him.

And this, of course, is one of the difficult aspects of the confrontation with Islamic radicals, and the whole relationship between America and the Arab world. It's very complex. Most people are only interested enough, to this stuff, to look for and be satisfied by, simple answers.

I felt sorry for this guy because he felt he was being deceived and betrayed, and I don't think he was. He just didn't know what was going on.

But, anyhow, like the confrontation with the Soviet Union, one side will prevail. What President Bush is trying to do, in Iraq, I think, is give the Arab world a choice. They can either stay in their backwards, repressive cultures, with their brutal dictatorships, and constant human rights abuses, or they can join the modern world, and embrace tolerance, democracy, and human rights.

Like the contest between communism, and capitalism, there is a choice here. Until now, Arabs had no choice. Now they do. They have a choice, as to how to order and manage and control their societies, and they have much natural resources. If they make the right choices, and work peacefully with America and her allies, Arabs and Muslims in Iraq can have an incredibly bright and prosperous future. Or, they can embrace radical elements within their religion, and go back to repressive dictatorships. They choice is theirs.

I believe, in any contest of ideas like that, that guns matter. Stength matters. If America leaves, before the job is done, tail tucked between it's legs, then Arabs will despise Americans even more than some of them do, right now. America will be perceived as weak. That's a fatal flaw, in the Arab world. And, if America is perceived as weak, who will be perceived as strong? Well, if radical elements chase America out, radical elements will be perceived as strong. And most people, Arab or not, gravitate toward strength.

That's why staying matters. That's why finishing the job in Iraq matters. America will have to deal with radical extremists within Islam, for at least the next century. It would be nice to have friends and allies, within the Arab world. And there are many Arabs who would like to see peace and democracy, in their lands. So, supporting these people, befriending them, helping them, sticking with them, is important. Due to the world's dependency on oil, Arab countries will attain a lot more power, this century. They hold the power of oil, which is for now, the lifeblood of the world's economy. It is best to befriend these people, treat them as equal, respect them, and help them reform their societies. This will keep America's energy supply secure, and weaken radicals, within Islam.

So, I think the documentary, Why We Fight, is naive. Yes, there is a huge military capacity, in America. But that in itself does not lead to war. War happens for a lot of reasons. America should remain militarily strong, this century, and use it's might to help Arabs join the modern world, and create a peaceful future, in my opinion.

So, why do we fight? We fight for a lot of reasons. But at the end of the day, at the end of the fight, the one thing that counts for me, is, if, at the end of the fight, somehow, we have created a more peaceful world. America did so, in Europe, when the Allies won against the Nazis. I believe, if America wins in Iraq, and helps the Iraqis create a peaceful democracy, that it will lead to a more peaceful future. I believe withdrawing too soon from Iraq will lead to a more dangerous world, and more wars. That's why I support the war.

-- June 8, 2008 12:19 PM


Sara wrote:

Bahrain to name Iraq envoy soon
Manama: June 8 2008

Bahrain said on Sunday it was setting up a new embassy in Baghdad and selecting an ambassador to Iraq, the latest sign of warming ties between Iraq and its Gulf Arab neighbours.

'We are currently choosing an ambassador. We have finished deciding where the embassy should be. We have an agreement with the Iraqi government,' foreign minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa told a news conference.

'It just remains to choose the ambassador and as a result of the security situation it is not easy. For the person chosen or those who choose him.'

UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan visited Iraq on Thursday, the first Gulf Arab foreign minister to do so since the US-led invasion in 2003.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have both promised to open up embassies in Baghdad and say delays are the result of logistics and safety concerns rather political considerations. The UAE also said it would appoint an ambassador to Baghdad.

No Arab country has had a permanent ambassador in the Iraqi capital since Egypt's envoy was kidnapped and killed shortly after arriving in 2005. The United States has been pressing Sunni Arab governments to shore up the government of Nuri al-Maliki by forgiving debts and establishing high-level diplomatic representation.

Improved ties with Gulf Arab states could increase Iraq's chances of persuading two of its biggest creditors, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, to cancel Baghdad's debts.

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=LAW&artid=144770

-- June 8, 2008 12:30 PM


Sara wrote:

Bravo!!

timbitts.. that was brilliant!

Thank you for that excellent dissertation on the complexities of the problem and the need for victory. :)

Well said.

Sara.

-- June 8, 2008 12:38 PM


tim bitts wrote:

that U tube link, with the Sean Hannity link, is no longer active. does anyone else have another link?

-- June 8, 2008 12:45 PM


tim bitts wrote:

thanks, sara:)

-- June 8, 2008 12:48 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim

Excellent presentation. Pray now that within our internal affairs we may resist those who are tryig to destroy us, so that we may be continually ready and able to defend and fight for the freedoms around the world. We will not be able to do that if our freedoms here in America continue to head toward peril.

One thing for SURE...our dependency on oil must come to a stop, either through alternative energy resources, or over riding those who stop us from driling our own oil! Not to do so creates dilemnas on 2 particular fronts:
#1. without our own ability to resource ourselves, our motives in oil producing nations will always be suspect.

#2. our vulnerablility to those who make up the axis of evil becomes more and more magnified.

Our military might, no matter how strong or how righteous our causes may be will never lead to us "owning" even 1 parcel of land in the middle east. So, guns don't secure our energy resources. They do however, advance the cause of peace in countries who need that military might, but not our cause, to provide independently for our citizens. And our military might can diminish quite rapidly, if those in control of the fuel turn the shut-off valve. I would imagine that those tanks and jet fighters don't run on water.

get my drift?

Peace through strength (Reagan's slogan) does not only mean military strength. I think we can all breath easier when we are independent on unruly and terrorist type countries who control the shut-off valve. And more threatening, because they do so in the name of Allah! Which eliminates all rationale or negotiating.

Try that link again, cause I just went back on it and it was ok.

Thanks again,

carole

-- June 8, 2008 4:38 PM


Laura Parker wrote:

All,

Just popped in to see what is happening. I noted someone said, "Laura seems to be interested in terrorism."... No, just personal and national freedom. It would be my goal that all people everywhere be a babies to the techniques of terrorists and of killings. But such, does not seem to meet the reality of our world. As terrorism is seen as the means of struggle for these islamic groups, then an american traveling abroad is a target and their personal freedom is in jeopardy. I am interested in protecting all individual freedoms in this world against such threats. My hope is that all nations would join america in this interest too.

On the national side of things, hopefully, we americans and other nations will look at the trojan horse side of Islam to make sure that our countries are not inflitrated from inside to lose our national freedom to agendas of these islamic (or other groups) with similar goals. I do not believe our forefathers worked so harm to allow us to lose our freedoms without wisdom.

Sara,

I take great comfort in knowing God is in control of all outcomes in our world.

Laura Parker

-- June 8, 2008 8:37 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

I do not post much on the weekends, like everyone else I generally have a full plate for Saturday and Sunday. Doin some reading tonight and found an article stating Iraq may link its Dinars exchange rate to a basket of currencies. In my opinion, I find this policy change a very intriguing.

We have to face it any change of this magnitude is based upon the continued slide of teh dollar. A reval, reversion, or limited free float based upon a basket of currencies could take another couple of years. To accomplish such, Iraqi oil, industrial, and agriculture sectors will have to be operating.

Neil:

I do not believe we were wrong for not nominationg Mitt. He is a Mormon; I for one rather have a John McCain rather than Mitt the Mormon. While I disagree with McCain's plolicy stances on immigration, the environment, and McCain Finegold. My disagreement with Mitt is on a spiritual level. I can and will vote for McCain; I could never ever knowningly vote a Mormon into the highest office in the land.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 12:01 AM


Sara wrote:

Timbitts;

I found the link to work just fine.. check if your firewall is blocking it (mine blocks some things sometimes).

Here again is the url so you don't have to scroll up looking for it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW4ZcY-VHA4

-- June 9, 2008 1:04 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Just watched "The Weather Underground", an Academy Award Nominee for best documentary. Very interesting. It traces the underground 1960s radical movement that wanted to overthrow the United States government. These people were against, "the system", in the vernacular of the 1960s. They wanted to overthrow this system, meaning they wanted to gain control of the American government. These radicals tried to protest the Vietnam war, by the method of bombing American targets, supposedly so Americans could feel what it was like, to be the subject of a bomb.

I read somewhere that Barrock Obama was friends with one of the top leaders of the movement, Bill Ayers. These people were terrorists, who at one time were willing to kill ordinary Americans, en masse, just to make a political point.

Now Barrock is too young to have been involved with them, but it's an interesting choice of friends. The Weather Underground were tactically terribly stupid and inept, and their plan to overthrow the American government had absolutely no chance of success. Many of them now renounce terrorism and say their tactics were immoral and destructive.

However, at the end of the movie, one thing becomes clear, is that, although these people mostly renounce terrorism now, they still strongly believe that America is an evil and destructive country, and that America should withdraw it's forces from around the world, including Iraq.

I wonder how much Mr. Obama is influenced by this philosophy. It seems to me the tactics of a small group of people, perhaps 30 people, trying to overthrow the American government single handedly is insane, and would never work. Tactically, it was a very stupid approach to acquiring political power. However, if someone who thinks like they do, ever gets into the White House, then the chances of the goals of the Underground Weathermen, coming about, increase dramatically.

Power in the United States is very concentrated. As Commander in Chief, President Bush had the power to invade Iraq. If he makes President, Mr. Obama could withdraw American forces from Iraq, and other places around the world, which is to say, effectively accomplish what the Weathermen wanted, several decades ago.

If I were a radical, and I wanted to overthrow the American government, I wouldn't march in the streets with a few people, and fight with the police. That would lead nowhere. Instead, I'd get behind someone who was a charismatic leader, and shared my views, and help to elect him, so he would be in a position to do what we thought was necessary. Now, that is a plan that just might work.

I'm not saying Obama got to where he is, by some sort of conspiracy. I do think, though, he must have been helped along the way, by like minded people who would feel comfortable among radical left wingers.

Why fight the system? Why not take it over instead?

My guess has always been that Barrock Obama is sincere about removing America troops from Iraq, and if he gets in, and does that, I believe it would be a disaster for the middle east, and our investment, in the Dinar. There may be things that happen to dissuade him from taking this course of getting American troops out of Iraq, or he may go ahead with his plans to leave Iraq. It's hard to say, what he'll really do.

Vietnam was not pretty, when America pulled out. They still haven't recovered from the carnage resulting from the American pullout. Communism and the bloodbath that came from the fight between factions in Vietnam, when the Americans pulled out, severely damaged that country. Iraq could follow a similar pattern, if America abandons it's efforts there.

I guess we'll find out what happens.

-- June 9, 2008 3:02 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim.

This Obama is so scary, and grows scarier by the moment.

I pray God has mercy on us and protects us from Obama and others like him, for the world's sake.

Let's not forget Cambodia either.

Rob,

Thanks for your post. Very interesting. Would it be wise to trade dollars for stronger curriencies?

Also, one of the reasons I did not vote for Mitt was because I did not believe a Mormon could be a successful candidate......but I never thought a deviate like Obama could be either.

Mitt has the advantage over all other candidates at this point because his social values, economic savy, and proven leadership skills excel when compared to either presidential candidate.

Does anyone know what Mc Cain's stance is on abortion, or homosexual agendas? All I could find about him is that he is against late term abortions, and that he would not favor a constitutional ammendment defining marriage as one man and one woman. He is for leaving it up to the states.....which has proven in effect to represent the poeples will, because the courts overturn the people's will.

Carole

-- June 9, 2008 4:48 AM


Sara wrote:

Though it is not quite yet time for champagne to celebrate, this gentleman argues below:

In short, the larger War on Terror may be reaching a tipping point similar to that of the Iraq war.

===

EAT CROW, IRAQ WAR SKEPTICS
By ARTHUR HERMAN

June 9, 2008 -- AMERICA has won, or is about to win, the Iraq war.

The latest proof came last month, as the Iraqi army - just a few months ago the target of scorn and abuse from Democratic politicians and journalists - forcefully reoccupied three cities that had served as key insurgency bases (Basra, Sadr City and Mosul).

Sunnis and Shias alike applauded as their nation's army compelled insurgent militias to lay down their arms. The country's leading opposition newspaper, Azzaman, led the applause for the move into Mosul - a sign that national reconciliation in Iraq is under way and probably irreversible.

US combat deaths in May also were down to 20, the lowest monthly total since February 2004. The toll for May 2007 was 121.

In a Washington Post interview, CIA Director Michael Hayden said we're witnessing the "near strategic defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq."

The Bush administration has taken heaps of abuse for its Iraq policy, including its decision to launch the "surge" last December. Now the strategy, which our nation's "best and brightest" regularly dismissed as a failure, has cleared the way for the establishment of a secure democracy in Iraq and a lasting peace.

It would be foolish to pop open the victory champagne yet. The truce between the Shia and Sunni in Iraq remains fragile; al Qaeda may well launch one more last-ditch offensive there (a la Tet 1968), in order to discourage the US and/or Iraq publics on the eve of the elections.

Meanwhile, we're still fighting a vicious insurgency in Afghanistan, and have yet to root out the al Qaeda remnants of along the Afghan-Pakistan border. And the continued threat of home-grown terror cells keeps European governments nervous.

In wars, however, trends have their own momentum. And the trend is running away from al Qaeda and its jihadist allies - not only in Iraq but also across the Middle East.

According to Hayden, al Qaeda faces a similar strategic debacle in Saudi Arabia.

And al Qaeda's fugitive leadership is learning that its former safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border is no longer so safe. Thanks to cooperation with Pakistan's new government, unmanned US Predator drones recently killed two top al Qaeda leaders there.

Once Gen. David Petraeus is confirmed as commander of US forces in the Middle East in July, he'll be able to apply the same strategy for victory learned in the Iraq surge to the war in Afghanistan.

In short, the larger War on Terror may be reaching a tipping point similar to that of the Iraq war.

The US public and policymakers need to recognize how this happened - and draw lessons from this success.

1) We need to acknowledge that the Iraq war wasn't a "distraction" from the War on Terror, as critics still complain, but its centerpiece.

It's not mere coincidence that our success against al Qaeda globally comes along with success in Iraq. For all its setbacks and frustrations, the Iraq war drew jihadists into a battle they thought they could win, because it would be fought on their home turf - but which they're now losing disastrously.

2) The US decision to "stay the course" in the Iraq war, which was also widely mocked and criticized, served to thoroughly demoralize the jihadist movement.

From its start in spring 2003, the Iraqi insurgency has been entirely built on the premise that it could use suicide and roadside bombings, sectarian slaughter and the torture and murder of hostages to force America out of the Middle East.

If Democrats had won the White House in 2004, the jihadists might have succeeded.

Instead, America doggedly refused to give in to terror, despite 4,000 combat deaths and massive antiwar sentiment, and unwaveringly supported an Iraqi government that was at times feeble and confused - and proceeded to break the jihadist movement's back.

In that interview, the CIA's Hayden also that al Qaeda is no longer able to use the Iraq war as a way to draw in new recruits. The reason is clear: If you go to Iraq to fight the American infidel you will die, and die for nothing.

3) Finally, the Bush administration's success in Iraq, and growing success in the War on Terror, offers a powerful object lesson in how to deal with the continuing threat from Iran.

Iran remains the most lethal state sponsor of terrorism, fomenting proxy wars in Lebanon and Gaza, and in Iraq itself. Its nuclear-weapons program proceeds despite minor sanctions and endless international efforts at engagement.

Now the Bush administration has shown the way for the next president. Instead of trying to "understand" the enemy, disrupt and defeat his plans. Instead of listening to domestic critics, act in the nation's best interests. Instead of relying on multilateral support to decide what to do, go it alone if necessary.

Instead of worrying about an exit strategy, realize that there's no substitute for winning.

- Arthur Herman is the author of "Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry That Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age," just published by Bantam.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/eat_crow__iraq_war_skeptics_114671.htm

-- June 9, 2008 8:44 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

John McCain on the issues:

http://www.ontheissues.org/John_McCain.htm

Barack Obama on the issues:

http://www.ontheissues.org/Barack_Obama.htm

Quite a contrast!

Sara.

-- June 9, 2008 8:51 AM


Sara wrote:

Timbitts - You have something there with your comment about Obama and his 1960s tactics.
An excerpt from a longer article showing what we are up against (below) states:

For several years, Obama himself taught workshops on the Alinsky method....

What is the Alinsky method?
See below:

===

Obama was trained by the Saul Alinsky-founded Industrial Areas Foundation (IAF) in Chicago. (The Developing Communities Project itself was an affiliate of the Gamaliel Foundation, whose modus operandi for the creation of "a more just and democratic society" is rooted firmly in the Alinsky method.) Alinsky was known for helping to establish the aggressive political tactics that characterized the 1960s and have remained central to all subsequent revolutionary movements in the United States.

In the Alinsky model, "organizing" is a euphemism for "revolution" -- a wholesale revolution whose ultimate objective is the systematic acquisition of power by a purportedly oppressed segment of the population, and the radical transformation of America's social and economic structure. The goal is to foment enough public discontent, moral confusion, and outright chaos to spark the social upheaval that Marx, Engels, and Lenin predicted -- a revolution whose foot soldiers view the status quo as fatally flawed and wholly unworthy of salvation. Thus, the theory goes, the people will settle for nothing less than that status quo's complete collapse -- to be followed by the erection of an entirely new system upon its ruins. Toward that end, they will be apt to follow the lead of charismatic radical organizers who project an aura of confidence and vision, and who profess to clearly understand what types of societal "changes" are needed.

But Alinsky's brand of revolution was not characterized by dramatic, sweeping, overnight transformations of social institutions. As Richard Poe puts it, "Alinsky viewed revolution as a slow, patient process. The trick was to penetrate existing institutions such as churches, unions and political parties." Alinsky advised organizers and their disciples to quietly, subtly gain influence within the decision-making ranks of these institutions, and to introduce changes from that platform.

One of Obama's early mentors in the Alinsky method, Mike Kruglik, would later say the following about Obama:

"He was a natural, the undisputed master of agitation, who could engage a room full of recruiting targets in a rapid-fire Socratic dialogue, nudging them to admit that they were not living up to their own standards. As with the panhandler, he could be aggressive and confrontational. With probing, sometimes personal questions, he would pinpoint the source of pain in their lives, tearing down their egos just enough before dangling a carrot of hope that they could make things better."

For several years, Obama himself taught workshops on the Alinsky method....

http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individualProfile.asp?indid=1511

-- June 9, 2008 9:23 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

New contracts could give Iraq quick oil fix
Wed Jun 4, 2008 10:19am EDT

DUBAI/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq is exporting more oil than it has for years and is on the verge of signing deals with oil majors that could quickly take output higher, oil officials say.

Baghdad expects this month to conclude negotiations for six oilfield service contracts with international companies that could boost output this year.

The deals could provide the extra 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in exports Iraq wants from the southern Basra terminal by the end of 2008. Basra accounts for most of Iraq's exports, shipping more than 1.5 million bpd.

"Provided they are signed promptly, these deals could give quick progress," said an executive at a western oil company negotiating for one of the contracts.

"They are the first step towards real improvement in a sector that has been under stress for 30 years."

Iraq expects June exports to reach 2.2 million barrels per day, the highest for monthly shipments since the U.S.-led invasion of March 2003. Baghdad sees exports rising further to 2.3 million bpd by the end of 2008.

The oil sector has increased output as security has improved but oil companies remain nervous.

Iraq will contract international oil firms to help manage operations at its largest producing fields such as Rumaila in the south, supplying equipment to refurbish dilapidated infrastructure.

The two-year deals call for a total output boost of 600,000 barrels per day. Once the contracts are signed, Iraq plans to offer the same fields in a bidding round for longer-term development.

The industry needs billions of dollars for renewal and expansion. The service deals are part of stop-gap measures to attract part of that investment in the absence of a vital oil law.

Political disputes have stalled the passage of an oil law through parliament for over a year. The legislation aims to set the terms and extent of foreign investment in developing the world's third largest oil reserves.

"Considerable progress can be made without the law," said Muhammad-Ali Zainy, senior energy analyst at the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies.

"These contracts are a big step forward and will help bring new methods and technology to these important fields."

BETTER SECURITY

Improved security has yielded gains of nearly 500,000 bpd in northern exports since last summer. Sabotage had kept that line mostly idle since the war.

Baghdad hopes to see Kirkuk oil exports up by another 100,000 bpd by the end of the year.

Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said this week he was optimistic that Iraqi forces would keep security tight at oil facilities, helping to bolster the confidence of foreign investors discouraged by sectarian violence.

Rising output and exports are allowing Iraq to cash in on record oil prices and have raised the prospect of an accelerated recovery in its shattered economy.

Iraq has a 10-year plan to boost output from 2.5 million bpd this year to 6 million bpd, Shahristani said this week. It aims to hit 4.5 million bpd in five years.

But for those larger long-term gains, Iraq needs the oil law in place for international oil companies to play a bigger role in developing untapped fields.

"We remain very cautious in terms of further capacity expansion," said Alex Munton, analyst at global consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"Iraq has almost reached the point, simply by repairing the damage of the last few years and adding security around main pipelines, of maximum capacity with the infrastructure in place. But there is little likelihood of being able to add to that without much larger-scale investment and the assistance of international oil companies."

Even with the law, international oil majors have said it would be years before security improves enough for them to be able to send ground staff to Iraq.

They intend to manage the new technical service contracts from outside the country, and will rely on Iraq's state oil companies to execute their plans.

The law is meant to help bridge divides between Iraq's Shi'ites, Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Control of oil reserves is one of the principal disputes.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 9:56 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Committee to investigate corruption at the Higher Criminal Court

A ministerial investigative committee formed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been given a 60 day deadline to put forward its case against officials suspected of corruption in the Higher Criminal Court.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 9:58 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iran recruits agents to abort Iraq-US agreement, says Alousi 09/06/2008 11:37:00

Baghdad (NINA)- MP Mithal al-Alousi, head of al-Umma al-Iraqiya party, has accused Iran of recruiting all its "agents" in Iraq to work with the goal of aborting the intended long-term agreement with the United States.
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 9:59 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Carole:

In my opinion, I would say yes concerning trading the dollar for stronger currencies at least in the short term. On the down side, it will take more dollars to purchase those currencies.

I read a month or two ago that New York City cab drivers are accepting Euros as payment for their fare. Why? The euro is stronger than the dollar right now.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 10:50 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

US response to Iraqi demands about security agreement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 09 June 2008 (Al-Sabaah)
Print article Send to friend
Efforts of Govt., political factions and cleric authorities led to an American response to Iraqi demands about changing some of long term security agreement's articles MP, Hameed Mua'ala, said that the Americans reduced their demands at the agreement's draft, as negotiators set six principles at talks with US.

On the other hand, Iraqi negotiators called to insert an article that obligates the US administration to acknowledge compensation's right for Iraqis, as they estimated value of these compensations at more than $1 trillion on damages that resulted from military operations.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 10:52 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Sistani representative urges participation of Iraqi groups in provincial elections

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Karbala, 07 June 2008 (Voices of Iraq)
Print article Send to friend
A representative of grand ayatollah Ali Sistani on Friday said the religious authority encourged Iraqi factions to participate in provincial elections due to be held in October.

Speakin at Friday prayer speech held in al-Hussain Mausoleum, Abdel Mahdi al-Karbalai, representative of top Shiite cleric Sistani in Karbala, said “religious authority has stood at an equal distance to all political factions and figures participating in next provincial elections”.

He reiterated “the religious authority does not embrace any definite list or figure”.

The cleric criticised groups that had announced they would not participate in the provincial elections in October
He warned“people’s unwillingness to participate in next elections is wrong”, citing "incapability of current local council todeliver services as an unjustified reason”.

Al-Karbalai pointed out that unwillingness to participate would “bring out unqualified and corrupt local officials”.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 10:54 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Kurds say they ready to export 150,000 barrels of oil a day

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

07 June 2008 (Azzaman)
Print article Send to friend
Iraqi Kurds say their investment in developing oil fields in their region has paid off handsomely and technically it currently enables them to export 150,000 barrels a day.

But their land-locked region bordered by adversaries makes shipping of crude on their own difficult.

Both Turkey and Iran have made it clear they would not let the Kurds to use their territory as a transit route. Syria has adopted a similar attitude.

The Kurds have signed numerous oil development deals with foreign firms, sparking anger from the central government in Baghdad.

Iraq’s Oil Ministry has gone as far as penalizing the foreign firms with such deals by denying them shipment of Iraqi crude.

An oil and gas draft law still awaits passage in the parliament mainly due to differences on the role autonomous regions like the Kurdish enclave are to have in developing and exporting oil.

The Kurds now control three provinces – Arbil, Sulaimaniya and Dahouk – and want to add the oil-rich city of Kirkuk to their territory.

But recently they have sent conciliatory signals to the central government, saying they would accept a joint administration of the disputed city in which Kurds, Arabs and other minorities will have a say in deciding its future.

How much oil the Kurdish region has within its current borders is yet to be known as large areas still remain unexplored.

But the Kurds seem upbeat about prospects of striking massive quantities and their experts speak of billions of barrels of reserves.

Senior Kurdish officials are in talks with the central government in Baghdad on how to resolve the oil issue.

Once resolved, it should be technically possible for Kurds to export their oil since they will be relying on the country’s extensive pipeline network.

But the government is adamant that any revenues should go directly to Central Bank coffers.

The volume Kurds say they are ready to export is estimated to bring about $18 million a day at current prices.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 9, 2008 10:56 AM


Sara wrote:

U.S. Soldiers Kill 5 Suspected Al Qaeda in Iraq Members
Monday, June 09, 2008

BAGHDAD — U.S. soldiers under heavy fire during a raid in northwestern Iraq called in airstrikes and killed five suspected Al Qaeda in Iraq militants, the military said.

During the raid, the U.S. military said it detained 13 suspects and destroyed a "foreign terrorist hideout" in two days of operations targeting Al Qaeda in Iraq across the country.

American soldiers, acting on intelligence gleaned from Iraqis already in U.S. custody, approached a suspected militant safehouse Monday in a remote area of northwestern Iraq, the military said. Troops immediately came under heavy fire from a fortified enemy position, it said.

When U.S. forces called in airstrikes, "secondary explosions erupted from the target buildings, indicating weapons and bomb materials inside," a military statement said.

Five men were confirmed dead, and multiple suicide vests and heavy machine guns were also discovered in the ruins of their hideout, it said.

An alleged Al Qaeda in Iraq bomber was captured with another suspect Monday in Mosul, and another five men were arrested south of the city, the military said.

Mosul is believed to be one of the last urban strongholds of the terror group, and U.S. and Iraqi forces have fought fierce battles with militants there in recent months.

The Al Qaeda in Iraq "emir" of Tikrit, a mostly Sunni Arab city north of the Iraqi capital, was arrested late Sunday along with three other suspects, the statement said. Two others were detained in Baghdad.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,364452,00.html

-- June 9, 2008 11:10 AM


Sara wrote:

Al Qaeda militants held
Malaysia Sun
Sunday 8th June, 2008
(IANS)

The Iraqi police captured suspected members of an Al Qaeda terror cell Sunday and seized many explosive belts ready for use in suicide bombings in western Iraq.

The suspects were arrested during raids Saturday night in the town of Hit, 130 km west of Baghdad, mayor Hikmat Jubayr announced.

Hit is in Anbar province, which was once the hotbed of Sunni insurgency and the main base for the Al Qaeda terror network.

Earlier, the US military announced that its troops captured a suspected arms dealer with alleged connections to Iran and who is believed to be a commander of an assassination squad in his hideout in Baghdad.

The Basra-based 'special groups' leader was captured Saturday in eastern Baghdad by US soldiers on intelligence received from other Shia militiamen in detention, according to a US military statement.

The man is allegedly the leader of an assassination squad in the southern city of Basra, an arms dealer and a document counterfeiter.

The statement said the man has been recently involved in arranging the 'transportation of criminals' in and out of neighbouring Iran.

http://story.malaysiasun.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/b8de8e630faf3631/id/368604/cs/1/

-- June 9, 2008 11:16 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq Inks $480M Contract With General Electric To Build Three Power Plants
Monday, June 09, 2008

June 9, 2008 (FinancialWire) General Electric Co. has signed a contract with Iraq worth $480 million to build three power plants and the country is negotiating with Hyundai to buy diesel generators.

Iraq faces chronic electricity shortages, struggling to keep up with increasing demand. The capital Baghdad receives only a few hours of electricity every day. Electricity Minister Karim Waheed said that GE will build three power stations in southern Baghdad the southern city of Kerbala, and Taji, north of Baghdad.

Iraq has also signed two other contracts, each worth $41 million, for GE to supply spare parts for the stations. Last month Iraq also signed a contract with General Electric to buy eight natural gas-powered generators, most of which would be installed in Baghdad.

Five years after U.S. forces invaded to topple Saddam Hussein, and with violence at a four-year low, Iraqis are pressing the government to improve service delivery. Many areas lack access to electricity or drinking water.

Waheed said there was a wide gap between the consumption and supply of electricity in Iraq. Demand is around 10,500 MW, far above the 5,500 MW the grid is able to supply.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1669178/

-- June 9, 2008 11:21 AM


Sara wrote:


Turkey and Jordan signal new confidence in working with Iraq
June 9, 2008
Deborah Haynes in Baghdad

The Turkish Prime Minister is preparing to make his first trip to Iraq since the invasion, while Jordan will soon send an ambassador to Baghdad, in the latest signs of a desire in the region to work with the US-backed Iraqi Government.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, and Jalal Talabani, the President, during his forthcoming stay, according to Ali al-Dabbagh, the Iraqi Government spokesman. He declined to give exact dates, but said of the trip: “It is highly significant. It is very important for us to diversify our relationship.”

Ankara is looking to work with Iraq to develop the southern oil hub of Basra, where British troops are based, into a free-trade zone. “They are thinking of a railway from Basra, a new line which will facilitate the transit of goods,” said Mr Dabbagh.

Turkey is one of only two regional countries (the other being Iran) still to have a fully-functioning embassy in Baghdad. It is also planning a consulate in Basra.

“We are looking to have a strategic relationship with Turkey. We want to have a relationship that covers all levels: security, economy, political, social, cultural,” Mr Dabbagh said.

Other states are also looking to increase their contact with Iraq, as security conditions improve and attention shifts to business opportunities and investment. Bahrain said yesterday that it planned to appoint an ambassador to Iraq, just days after a similar announcement by the United Arab Emirates, a US ally.

Mr Dabbagh said that Jordan's new ambassador would be the first to arrive. Mr Maliki is due to travel to Amman next week to speak to King Abdullah II about Jordan’s embassy plans, he added.

Moves by countries to re-establish embassies in Baghdad will be seen as a growing acceptance of the fledgeling, Shia-led Iraqi Government, something that Washington has been encouraging for a long time.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article4097862.ece

-- June 9, 2008 11:25 AM


Sara wrote:

'Bush Lied' Argument Doesn't Match Facts -- Democrats Say
By Tim Graham
June 9, 2008

Washington Post Editorial Page Editor Fred Hiatt will no doubt upset liberal bloggers with his Monday column underscoring something the rest of the national media elite hasn't exactly underscored: that the "Bush lied, people died" line doesn't match what Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee found,

QUOTE:

There's no question that the administration, and particularly Vice President Cheney, spoke with too much certainty at times and failed to anticipate or prepare the American people for the enormous undertaking in Iraq.

But dive into [Sen. Jay] Rockefeller's report, in search of where exactly President Bush lied about what his intelligence agencies were telling him about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and you may be surprised by what you find.

On Iraq's nuclear weapons program? The president's statements "were generally substantiated by intelligence community estimates."

On biological weapons, production capability and those infamous mobile laboratories? The president's statements "were substantiated by intelligence information."

On chemical weapons, then? "Substantiated by intelligence information."

On weapons of mass destruction overall (a separate section of the intelligence committee report)? "Generally substantiated by intelligence information."

Delivery vehicles such as ballistic missiles? "Generally substantiated by available intelligence."

Unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to deliver WMDs? "Generally substantiated by intelligence information."

As you read through the report, you begin to think maybe you've mistakenly picked up the minority dissent. But, no, this is the Rockefeller indictment. So, you think, the smoking gun must appear in the section on Bush's claims about Saddam Hussein's alleged ties to terrorism.

But statements regarding Iraq's support for terrorist groups other than al-Qaeda "were substantiated by intelligence information."

Statements that Iraq provided safe haven for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other terrorists with ties to al-Qaeda "were substantiated by the intelligence assessments," and statements regarding Iraq's contacts with al-Qaeda "were substantiated by intelligence information."

The report is left to complain about "implications" and statements that "left the impression" that those contacts led to substantive Iraqi cooperation.

===

Hiatt then noted what the Republican part of the report said,

QUOTE:

In the report's final section, the committee takes issue with Bush's statements about Saddam Hussein's intentions and what the future might have held. But was that really a question of misrepresenting intelligence, or was it a question of judgment that politicians are expected to make?

After all, it was not Bush, but Rockefeller, who said in October 2002: "There has been some debate over how 'imminent' a threat Iraq poses. I do believe Iraq poses an imminent threat. I also believe after September 11, that question is increasingly outdated. . . . To insist on further evidence could put some of our fellow Americans at risk. Can we afford to take that chance? I do not think we can."

Rockefeller was reminded of that statement by the committee's vice chairman, Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R-Mo.), who with three other Republican senators filed a minority dissent that includes many other such statements from Democratic senators who had access to the intelligence reports that Bush read. The dissenters assert that they were cut out of the report's preparation, allowing for a great deal of skewing and partisanship, but that even so, "the reports essentially validate what we have been saying all along: that policymakers' statements were substantiated by the intelligence."

Why does it matter, at this late date? The Rockefeller report will not cause a spike in "Bush Lied" mug sales, and the Bond dissent will not lead anyone to scrape the "Bush Lied" bumper sticker off his or her car.

But the phony "Bush lied" story line distracts from the biggest prewar failure: the fact that so much of the intelligence upon which Bush and Rockefeller and everyone else relied turned out to be tragically, catastrophically wrong.

And it trivializes a double dilemma that President Bill Clinton faced before Bush and that President McCain may well face after: when to act on a threat in the inevitable absence of perfect intelligence and how to mobilize popular support for such action, if deemed essential for national security, in a democracy that will always, and rightly, be reluctant.

====

Hiatt is left-wing enough to not notice that Democrats are especially reluctant to use military force, and so even if intelligence reports of threats were strongly worded, it might not spur any action. If President Gore had faced all this overdone intelligence on Iraq's capabilities, no one really believes he would have gone to war. It's even questionable whether President Gore would have done more to dislodge the Taliban in Afghanistan than President Clinton did.

—Tim Graham is Director of Media Analysis at the Media Research Center

Comments

1) True lies by ThisnThat

So who are the true liers in this country? A partial list:

Murtha - Our Marines are killers

Reid - The war is lost

Clinton (H) - Gen Petraeus is a liar

Obama - We should never have gone to war in Iraq

Obermann - Bush is the worst ever

Pelosi - By voting against the GI bill, Republicans refused to support our veterans when they come home

Edwards - The American people want us to cut all war funds

And what's the common denominator? They're all Democrats - in Congress or the MSM. Notice a trend, here?

2) Even though that story is by mattm

Even though that story is basically good, it's premise is still wrong. It's saying that Bush relied on bad intelligence. (Meanwhile Frontilin -PBS, runs a Bush Lied program over the weekend)

The fact is 3 presidents in a row had to deal with Hussein. He was threatening the world with WMD (even though he exaggerated his own strength), he was harboring terrorists and funding them.

Bush did the world a favor and instead of ripping him they should be kissing his gluteus maximus.

3) It's nice for someone in the media to accurately represent by Dee Bunk

It's nice for someone in the media to accurately represent what the report said. Unfortunately most of the media spin it like this AP article which starts out

"WASHINGTON - A new Senate report gives a fresh shot of adrenaline to the election-year debate over the Iraq war. President Bush and his top officials deliberately misrepresented secret intelligence to make the case to invade Iraq, according to the Senate Intelligence Committee."

Then continues to slam Bush by false implications and inuendo. It's not until about the 6th paragraph that you get this statement

"The Senate report, however, found that intelligence supported most of
the administration's statements about Iraq before the war. But
officials often did not mention the level of dissension or uncertainty
in the intelligence agencies about the information they were presenting."

Even that statement makes it seem as if mentioning the "level of dissension or uncertainty" Was something the Bush administration was obligated to do but didn't but excused all the Democrats who voted for the war for doing the same thing and all of the other Countries at the U.N. who's intelligence bore out the same thing. No one credible at the U.N. questioned or was concerned about "dissenters" to their intelligence either. It wasn't just the U.S. who didn't mention dissenting opinions it was France, GB, Germany and tons of other allies not to mention non allied countries like China and Russia.

I doubt there is any intelligence that's ever been without dissenting opinions. But this sure is the kind of spin that the Media and the sheepish public eat up without critical examination.

4) Morning Dee. If Bush lied, by motherbelt

Morning Dee. If Bush lied, so did these people: http://www.rightwingnews.com/quotes/demsonwmds.php

5) Hi MB - that is a great summary by Dee Bunk

Hi MB - that is a great summary and it doesn't even begin to mention all the people who didn't mention the dissension. I don't know if there is one member who did. None of the people who were against the war used the "dissenting opinions" as their reason. Why? Because even they didn't find the "dissenting opinions" credible enough to override the overwhelming majority opinion of U.S. and every other World intelligence agency.

That the Dems and their allies in the Press have been able to change this debate into this is absurd. SOME of the intelligence was wrong but the DEMs who disagreed with the war disagreed assuming it was correct. Their position was never that we could be wrong about whether he had WMD's etc... Their position was that we could convince him to get rid of them with further inspections.

6) Their position was never by motherbelt

Their position was never that we could be
wrong about whether he had WMD's etc... Their position was that we
could convince him to get rid of them with further inspections.

That's right, Dee...they agreed that he had them; they just wanted to continue useless sanctions. And it was amazing that after about 10 years of trying, they were saying we shouldn't "rush to war."

7) Rhetoric morphing into indictments by KC Mulville

The moment I encounter anyone who says that Bush lied, it immediately marks them as unserious people. You have every right to complain that Bush is president, and like the captain of the ship, he has to bear the responsibility for any mistake. You can argue that being the executive means that sometimes you have to take a guess, and unfair as it is, you have to take the fall if the guess is wrong. I can respect those arguments. But the moment you argue that Bush concocted the threat from Saddam, that’s the moment you prove yourself to be a waste of time.

Rockefeller is a powerful senator, and because of his position, he has to be taken seriously. But he’s shown himself to be a loose cannon. He tried to demean McCain’s military service by accusing McCain of being a fighter pilot! What an immoral job that is (to Rockefeller)! Now he’s waving a report in front of the camera, McCarthy-like, claiming to have proof … even though the paper he’s waving is empty.

Eight years of this?

8) Gore Would Have Appeased! by Chasvs

Gore would not have gone to war. He would like all good Liberals have balmed Amerika and then sought to appease the Taliban!

His acions would have doomed our great country to ridicule and future attacks from Iran and other rouge nations.

Let's learn from the past. Clinton did nothing and emboldened Al Quida leading to their attack on 9/11. Gore if in office on that day would still be looking to blame us for the attack and would have given up the middle east to the islamofacists in the name of Peace!

Gore Lost, Freedom Lived!

9) I work with a woman who by msh1973

I work with a woman who thinks that Pres. Bush should be tried for war crimes, she says he murdered all the soliders who have died in Iraq. It should be mentioned that she thinks Obama is the only one who can save America. I try to talk to her rationally, but she just walks away in a huff. This is the kind of thinking that we are up against...it is just crazy.

10) It doesn’t matter what is by Rush Fan

It doesn’t matter what is written regarding the case for the Iraq war. The lunatic left hates Bush and will always believe ‘Bush Lied’. Want proof? Read the comments that have been posted on the Washington Post web site. Example: “Bush will go down in infamy, and with any luck, receive a similar fate as his spiritual brethren at Nuremberg.”

It’s very sad. When you are teeming with hate, facts don’t matter.

"You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts"

11) Of course this whole "Bush by ckc1227

Of course this whole "Bush lied, people died" argument is itself, ironically, a lie. That it has gone unchallenged should tell you all you need to know about how corrupt and biased the media is in this country. Not only do they not challenge it for the most part, they enable it. Just look at how they covered this "report" by Rockefeller. In the coverage I've seen, they deliberately give people the impression that this report is proof of Bush wrongdoing rather than telling them the truth about it being just another partisan hit piece by Democrats who, again ironically, are likely lying themselves.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2008/06/09/bush-lied-argument-doesnt-match-facts-democrats-say

-- June 9, 2008 1:25 PM


Sara wrote:

Barack Obama co-sponsors a bill creating a Nationwide Fingerprint Registry...

Housing Bill Creates National Fingerprint Registry
Posted June 9th, 2008 at 12.40pm in Entrepreneurship.

Sens. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) authored a bill (with 11 co-sponsors, including Sen. Barack Obama) that was incorporated into a housing bill passed by the Senate Banking Committee 19-2 before the Memorial Day recess — a bill that creates a national fingerprint registry.

According to a Martinez press release, the language merely “create[s] national licensing and oversight standards for residential mortgage originators.”

One of the standards, John Berlau of the Competitive Enterprise Institute says, may “require thousands of individuals working even tangentially in the mortgage and real estate industries — and not suspected of anything — to send their prints to the feds.”

This is a step in the wrong direction — at least for a nation that preserves freedom.

http://blog.heritage.org/2008/06/09/obama-among-supporters-of-national-fingerprint-registry/

-- June 9, 2008 3:29 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Timelines and Victory

I believe that, if a person had enough facts at their disposal, it would be possible to predict the outcomes of wars, and conflicts. Getting the facts, of course, is a tricky matter.

Looking at the timeline, of the conflict with Iraq, some things become obvious. In terms of conventional warfare, America is presently unmatched. The conventional war was over in, what was it, 3 weeks?

My guess is, any future conflict, using conventional warfare technicques, like tanks and missiles, and airplanes, between America and any other country, would be over fairly quickly. Some countries, like Russia, could put up more resistance, but a country like Iran, should they get into a conventional war with America, would find themselves defeated in a matter of weeks, on the conventional front.

However, America's conventional superiority gave it, briefly, a false sense of inevitable victory. Remember President Bush, on the deck of the aircraft carrier, with the banner, behind him, "Mission Accomplished". I think the reason that banner was up there, was that all parts of the American military had not yet fully understood the nature of the conflict they were entering into.

War is generally thought of, in terms that are most familiar. The most familiar conflict, to military men and women, was the Second World War.

It quickly became apparent, after that, that the war was far from over. At that point, the insurgency took over. It took a while for the President to respond to this, and he had a learning curve, like everyone else. But figure it out, he did.

That's why he appointed General Petraeus to his position. It became clear that only someone like the General, who literally wrote a book on unconventional warfare, could handle this conflict. And he has done so, brilliantly.

Now, I once heard Vice President Cheney once say, in a TV interview, that historically, insurgencies generally take about 10 years to fully defeat. This requires first, conventional victory, which America accomplished quite quickly and handlily. Then it requires various insurgency military techniques, which America is now employing.

Now, the Iraq war started in March/03, so it's been just over 5 years. And at this point it appears the tide is turning, in America's favour. The American military has been on a learning curve, and is learning to fight unconventional wars, very effectively.

So, how long is left? I'm personally not going to get hung up on, the fact that, most insurgencies take about 10 years. Some take less. Some take more. It depends on the overall situation, and how it's handled. It's like making cars. It used to take Detroit 7 years, to put a car into production, from original conception, and planning, to where they start rolling off the assembly line. This timeline went on for decades, and everyone thought it was written in stone. Then the Japanese came along, and showed it could be done in 3-4 years.

Anyhow, I would say, at this point, victory basically depends on who gets into the White House. If Obama is President, and pulls the troops out too quickly, he still would be able to grasp defeat, out of the jaws of victory. If John Macain is elected, then chances of victory are very close to 100%.

If Macain is President, that would give the American military another 4 years to achieve complete victory. After another 4 years, I'd say, it's my opinion, that defeat for the American Army would be nearly impossible. I don't think they will need that time, but if Macain gets in, it would be a huge psychological defeat for insurgents fighting the American Army and the Iraqi Army. The insurgents would realize there would be no let up, for 4 more years, and I would guess, right after a Macain victory, many insurgents would pack it in, convinced there was simply zero chance of their eventual success.

This has an interesting parallel in the documentary movie about the Weather Underground. The young terrorists in that documentary all eventually gave up, after 5-10 years. They could only take so much. They were hunted year after year, by the law, and they couldn't take it anymore. So many turned themselves in. I would imagine the same sort of thing might happen to terrorists and insurgents in Iraq. How long could they cope with fighting the American Army? Always running and hiding. Always worried that other Iraqis will see what they are doing, and turn them in to Iraqi Authorities. How long can they hold up? How long would they want to continue their activity under these conditons? Probably 5-7 years, is my guess.

And, for members of the Weather Underground, time itself eventually had an effect on how they saw things. "I turned 30, got more mature, and started wondering whether this was right" was how one Weatherman put it. They all started out as young hotheads, all full of themselves, with a sense of moral superiority in the rightness of their beliefs, including the belief that it was ok to kill innocent American civilians, to protest the Vietnam War. In time, most came to their senses, and saw this evil belief for what it was. I imagine this sort of moral evolution is happening in some Iraqi insurgents. In time, this too will weaken the insurgency.

Military conflicts are influenced by the sense of moral rightness of combattants. When Al Queda in Iraq started raping women and boys, they lost all sense of the moral high ground. They exposed themselves for the scumbags and lowlife that they are, and lost much respect in the Iraqi community. Ordinary, religious Muslims must have been horrified at some of the conduct of the insurgents.

This inevitable leads to the general population questioning the moral legitamacy of the insurgency, and turning their backs on it. That's why it is so very important for America to conduct this war, as ethically as it is possible to conduct, such a violent thing, as war. As horrible as war is, ethical comparisons will be made by ordinary Iraqis. They are not stupid. Most are moral people, and will judge and compare the conduct of the Americans, with the conduct of the insurgents, and they will decide who to trust. That means moral leadership counts for a lot, in a war.

Anyhow, getting back to the timeline analysis, right now, we are at the 5 year mark in the war, right now. Maybe that's why the insurgency appears to be starting to collapse. Maybe it's starting to happen. One thing is for sure, in my opinion. If the American Army keeps fighting, keeps learning, keeps helping the Iraqi Army train, and control their own country, it's pretty much inevitable that America will win. It's all a matter of not giving up.

One of the many smart changes America made, which wasn't reported on much, was they have rebuilt, extensively, the telephone network in Iraq. It's now based on cell phone use. Cell phones are portable, cheap, can be hidden easily, in clothes. And they can take pictures. As part of this, the Iraqis and American Army now have telephone numbers that Iraqis can phone, to turn in terrorists. Since terrorists have gotten a bad name in that country, due to the brutal things they have done to the population, many Iraqis now feel compelled to turn these people in. This means terrorists now exist in a human enviroment where they are being watched all the time, by ordinary citizens. Ordinary Iraqis often know who does and doesn't belong in their neighborhood. So, life for a terrorist is difficult in Iraq. If he plants a roadside bomb, and someone sees him, and contacts authorities, then he may be tracked down, and killed, or brought in.

Now, successfully running an insurgency, as a terrorist, requires a person to fit in, and be accepted by the local population, which protects you, and hides you from the people who want to kill you. Already, as I said, the trust between insurgents and the population has been substantially broken. And if cell phones are in common use, it means you never know who just might turn you in. People can make the choice to turn you in, on their own, independent of any leader in the community. This creates a very insecure enviroment for terrorists and insurgents. If this goes on long enough, they will be defeated.

Victory, also, at this point, largely depends on cutting off terrorist connections with Iran, who are obviously trying to kick the Americans out. Victory in part will be dependent on well the Iraqis and Americans do this.

But, all things considered, it is my opinion, we are at the start of the 4th quarter of this particular football game. America has pulled ahead and is winning. Something could still upset the game, but if John Macain wins in November, and is elected quarterback, I'd say the game is over. If Obama is brought in, as quarterback, all bets are off. He has already said, he isn't interested in winning, and hopes America loses this football match.

In a nutshell, here are the plans of the two American political parties, on the war:

The Republican Plan: America Wins!
The Democratic Plan: America Loses!

I guess voters will have to decide what they want.

-- June 9, 2008 5:14 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara
At this point being concerned about "fingerprinting" is like closing the barn door after the horse is out.

There is rarely a public service worker who isn't registered with a nationaL fingerprint entitiy.

If youy have a drivrs lic, or passport, or have ever had something notarized, you have been introduced in some someway to the "scheme" of things.

In this nation, under the Ombudsman Act of 1989, anyone remotely working with or for the elderly, have to get FBI fingerprint clearing before hiring.....and the list goes on and on.

I think babies now are printed.

What is equally as frightening is the enornmous marketing, privately to have your children and elderly receive GPS chips.

I'm sure one of these companies prays for a govt. contract!

Do you still not see the end time signs that are looking more and more like neon lights each day! :)
However, it doesn't surprisee me that anything that has the least taint of evildoing, had Obama's fingerprints on it!

Pardon the pun!
Carole

-- June 9, 2008 5:26 PM


Carole wrote:

Roger,

where art thou???????

we need ur perspective on the way of the Dinar, in light of the last years events ( progress) in Iraq
ppppppppllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssseeeeeeeeeeee!

Carole

-- June 9, 2008 5:36 PM


Sara wrote:

Quote:

"While Obama might criticize (McCain) for representing a third Bush term, Obama seems to be running for a second Carter term..."

===
McCain: Obama means 2nd Carter term
Posted: Monday, June 09, 2008 6:08 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2008, McCain, Obama
From NBC's Mark Murray

In an interview to air later tonight on Nightly News, McCain tells NBC's Brian Williams that while Obama might criticize him for representing a third Bush term, Obama seems to be running for a second Carter term. Part of the transcript...

Williams: Is it going to be tough to run with an incumbent party for the White House, given this economic backdrop?

McCain: I-- I think it's-- it's tough. But I think the American didn't, people didn't get to know me yesterday. They know me. They know that I have fought for restraining spending, which Senator Obama has been a big part of, with earmarking (UNINTEL) projects. They know that I have been a strong fiscal conservative, and they know I understand the challenges that they face.

They need a little break from-- from their gasoline taxes, and they -- and they know that -- we've got to get spending under control. And we've got to become independent of foreign oil. Sen. Obama says that I'm running for a Bush's third terms. It seems to me he's running for Jimmy Carter's second. (LAUGHTER)

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/09/1126247.aspx

-- June 9, 2008 7:02 PM


tim bitts wrote:

This article is a bit long, but well worth the read, in my opinion. It's a good general discussion about what is happening with oil, nowadays, and all the implications of high energy prices we are currently seeing. It is written with Canada in mind, but most of it will apply to the United States and Britain as well, since all are advanced industrial economies.

We are investing in the Dinar, and the value of that currency will be heavily influenced by what is happening with oil. This article gives a good general summary of that. It's from Macleans Magazine, a very mainstream Canadian magazine. Macleans is sort of Canada's answer to Time Magazine. This is the first time I have seen such and extensive article on oil, and the dire economic consequences of high energy prices, in a mainstream, prominent magazine.

I have referred to Peak Oil Theory in past posts. It is a very dire theory, that has been on the fringes of respectability, for a long time. I have been following the debate, over Peak Oil Theory, over the internet, for several years. Till now, it was mostly geologists, people in the oil business, and a few curious people who were interested in this theory. Now, it's starting to hit mainstream consciousness, through articles like this.

Nice to know the Mainstream Media eventually catches up with what is happening.

Enjoy! Let me know what you think.

After cheap oil
Soaring energy costs are about to change everything
JASON KIRBY AND COLIN CAMPBELL | May 28, 2008 |

Back in the 1990s, when Osama bin Laden was still giving interviews to journalists and didn't have a $50-million bounty on his head, one of his biggest grievances with the West was over the price of oil. At around US$30 a barrel, it was far too cheap, he reasoned. The Western world was ruthlessly bleeding the Middle East by not paying fair market value for oil. It had to be stopped. A more appropriate price? At least US$100 a barrel, he once said, maybe even US$200.

Mission accomplished. Suddenly a world in which oil costs well over US$100 a barrel isn't just the dream of a terrorist bent on destroying the United States and its allies. It is reality. Oil recently hit US$135 a barrel, more than double where it was a year ago. And the once unimaginable prospect of oil at US$200 a barrel is gaining currency among the world's most respected oil watchers. Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, predicts oil will rocket to that level by 2012. Goldman Sachs figures we'll get there even sooner. Other analysts, meanwhile, have begun to float more startling figures, of oil at US$250, even US$300 a barrel.

The world is now facing an oil crisis few predicted and even fewer are prepared for. It's impossible to understate how crucial cheap oil has become to our way of life. It's shaped how we get our food, what we buy, where we live, how we work, and the way we play. Cheap oil opened up the world to millions of travellers via discount airlines, allowed thousands to buy their first homes in sprawling suburbs, and enabled consumers to get their hands on ever cheaper goods, shipped just in time, from around the globe. Now economists say all of that is at risk. Exactly how the end of cheap oil will change our lives is still far from clear. But change them it will, in profound and dramatic ways. If the price of oil continues to climb to US$200 a barrel, it won't just be that people will have to drive a little bit less or skip the family trip to Disneyland. Across the board the cost of living will explode, not just for luxuries but basic necessities as well. To hear some experts tell it, we're headed for nothing short of Oilmageddon. At the very least, they say, the age of plenty is over.

Continued Below


The pain has already begun. Gasoline prices in Canada now stand at around $1.30 per litre, up 30 per cent over the past year. That jump has hit car sales. Ford Motor Co. is slashing production of SUVs and pickups, putting thousands of already struggling auto workers out of their jobs. A poll last week found half of Canadians have either cut back on how much they drive or are planning to. And with gas prices so rich, a wave of gasoline theft has swept the continent. Forget locking gas caps, thieves are crawling under cars with cordless drills to drain tanks of their liquid gold. The police, meanwhile, may have to chase down those criminals on foot. Rising prices have many police departments parking their cruisers. In Georgia, the state police have been ordered to cut back driving time by 25 per cent.

In the skies, the price crunch is even worse. The airline industry is grappling with a 95 per cent jump in the price of jet fuel and companies are passing those costs right along to passengers through fuel surcharges of as much as $130 for a round trip ticket. Air Canada and American Airlines have even started charging for checked bags, while AA slashed 1,300 flights last week to cut costs. Air Canada is thinking of similar cuts. Now, there are fears of bankruptcies akin to the industry's post-9/11 meltdown.

It seems every day companies announce another round of price hikes, for everything from beer and vinyl siding to Starbucks coffee and diapers. Even then, rising energy prices take time to filter their way into the economy. Experts say we're only now feeling the effects of US$100 oil, and with no sign of a return to the carefree days of double-digit crude, the real storm has just begun to gather. Should oil hit US$200 in the next few years, the world will be scarcely recognizable.

James Howard Kunstler isn't one to mince words about what's coming. "The suburbs will turn to slums, salvage yards and ruins," says the author of the book The Long Emergency. "Expensive oil will thunder through the economic system cutting a wide swath of destruction." As Kunstler sees it, sometime during this decade half of the world's recoverable petroleum will have been extracted. From here on out, we'll be living on a dwindling supply of hard-to-reach fossil fuels. This is the cornerstone of the "peak oil" theory and Kuntsler foresees apocalyptic fallout. It will become unfeasible for people to drive from the burbs to distant jobs, and as the petroleum refugees flee their McMansions, the sprawling cul-de-sacs will turn to ghost towns. As the global supply chains collapse, major importers like Wal-Mart will go out of business.

Kunstler has often been dismissed as a crank. And the dismal picture he paints of the future comes straight out of the wildest fantasies of the anti-consumer, anti-development crowd. Yet the fact is a growing number of economists are starting to echo similar ideas that just two years ago were seen as the domain of the lunatic fringe. As the predictions for $200 oil grow louder, so too does the realization that huge changes are coming.

The agony that's been felt at the pumps so far is nothing compared to what will transpire if oil keeps marching higher, and the repercussions will ripple out from there. More than 60 per cent of the oil consumed in North America goes to fuel transportation, with the largest amount used to power passenger vehicles and transport trucks. By some estimates, eight out of 10 Americans rely on cars to get back and forth to work. (In cities like Toronto, that figure is more like 55 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.) If oil tops US$200 a barrel, Rubin at CIBC World Markets has said the average price of gasoline could reach $2.25 per litre, a 75 per cent jump over what it is today. At that price, it would cost $135 to fill up the average gas tank; $180 for those with deep enough pockets to still be driving SUVs (double that for the two-car garage suburban set). Someone earning $12 an hour, the average wage of Canadians between the ages of 15 and 24, would have to put in a day and a half's work just to afford a fill-up. And for those who get behind the wheel of a large vehicle for a 100-km round trip commute, the average annual fuel bill could surpass $10,000 — enough to buy a sub- compact car with better mileage. "If the price of oil gets to US$200 a barrel, one of my cars is going up on blocks," says David Carson of the Canadian Centre for Energy, a non-profit research group in Calgary, referring to his gas-guzzling Mustang. "I really envy my daughter for her Honda Civic."

Continued Below


Long before gasoline prices get that high, though, many people will have radically altered their driving habits. Cathy Hay at MJ Ervin & Associates, a Calgary firm that tracks gasoline prices, believes $1.60 gas could be the tipping point at which people dramatically cut back. Whether suburbs like Markham, Ont., Richmond, B.C., and Laval, Que., are destined to waste away is a matter for debate. But there are signs the sudden rise in oil prices has already had a profound impact on real estate prices in the U.S. Last month Joe Cortright, an economist in Oregon, published a report for the Chicago-based organization CEOs For Cities that looked at downtown versus suburban housing markets. He found far-flung neighbourhoods had both greater price declines and higher foreclosure rates than those closer to a city's core. What's more, he concluded the current housing crisis is about more than subprime mortgages. Years of rising gasoline prices have simply made suburban living too expensive. "The collapse of the housing bubble, punctured by the gas price spike, marks a watershed point for the nation's suburbs," Cortright wrote. "As the more severe decline in housing prices on the urban fringe over the past year illustrates, $3 a gallon gas has made low density development a false economy across the nation."

And don't think for a moment that Canada, even with its surprisingly resilient housing market, can escape unscathed. Experts see two separate real estate markets forming — neighbourhoods that offer easy access by bicycle and public transit, and those accessible only by car. "They're going to be the losers in the next economic downturn," says Anthony Perl, director of Urban Studies at Simon Fraser University. "Those people who didn't think it mattered where you lived and felt transportation would always be cheap made the wrong bet. They probably didn't even know they were betting."

Regardless of whether people live downtown or in the burbs, the soaring cost of heating residences through the chilly winter months will affect everyone. The price of home heating oil, at $1.29 per litre, has already jumped 115 per cent since 2004, gaining 30 per cent so far this year, according to data from MJ Ervin. Roughly 10 per cent of Canadians heat their homes with oil, particularly those in rural communities who must already contend with sky high gasoline prices. The annual bill to heat an older home with an old oil furnace has, in some cases, reached $4,000 a year. Mary Maifrini, who co-owns Ernie's Woodstove Repairs and Sales in Durham, Ont., says there's been an increase in sales at the store as oil prices have risen. "That's what frustrates people the most about oil — they can't control it," she says. And that sense of helplessness applies even to those who heat their homes with natural gas and electricity. Prices for natural gas in Ontario are set to jump 20 per cent on July 1.

Even if Canadians ratchet down the thermostat to save a few bucks come winter, there's almost no way to avoid the crippling effect that US$200 oil will have on the price of everything we buy, from food to home electronics to airline tickets. It's often said that it takes 400 gallons of oil equivalent to feed each person in America every year. The stuff is crucial to getting food from the farm to our tables, whether it's in the production of fertilizer, harvesting, processing or transporting fruits and vegetables halfway around the world. And as oil prices reach the stratosphere, there will be more demand for alternative fuels such as corn and grain-based ethanol, putting even more upward pressure on food prices. There have already been riots around the world as people find they can no longer afford to feed themselves the way they had just a few months ago. And just as bananas would emerge as luxury items if oil continues to climb, economists warn people will find the era of cheap clothes and home electronics will screech to a halt. Marine shipping rates have already jumped 72 per cent since last year. In the same way airlines are passing their costs on to consumers, so too will manufacturers. "Our way of life depends on freight transport and the whole thing is beginning to unravel," says Richard Gilbert, a transportation consultant in Toronto and one of the authors of Transport Revolutions.

No sense worrying about the price of airline tickets though — chances are, you won't be flying much in the future anyway. While US$100 a barrel oil has airlines in a panic, at US$200 the industry's business model completely falls apart. "Aviation will be truly, dramatically changed," says Gilbert. Short commuter flights from Toronto to Montreal, or Calgary to Edmonton, will be phased out. Air travel will only work with large, fully occupied planes flying medium distances, says Gilbert. Most air travel will need to be replaced by European-style rail networks. There are about 330 airports in the U.S. today with scheduled flights. Gilbert predicts by about 2025 that number will dwindle to 30 or 40.

In other words, after years of feeling like the world really was shrinking, our big old blue sphere is going to start seeming awfully large again, and it will redraw everything from how we work to how we socialize. "I think people will look back on the 1940s to early 2000s as an exceptional period and it will seem very strange that people would fly off to Las Vegas or Florida for the weekend, or drive their kids 20 km to play hockey and take piano lessons," says SFU's Perl. "Some people are going to have to adjust every aspect of their lives."

The idea of a 21st-century oil spike is by no means new. Back in the early 1980s it was widely believed that by the year 2000 oil supplies would falter and prices would hit US$100 a barrel. But throughout the 1990s, prices remained amazingly stable around the US$30 a barrel mark. By the turn of the century, oil was hitting 30-year lows and those dire predictions seemed downright crazy. Turns out they were just a few years off. Last week, the International Energy Agency said it will re-examine the oil supply in 400 major oil fields around the world — a sobering acknowledgement that there may be even less oil than once thought. Even industry insiders are waking to the idea that the world is nearing the supply wall. Last year, former U.S. energy secretary James Schlesinger declared, "the battle is over, the peakists have won." Peak oil theory isn't about the world running out of oil — that won't happen anytime soon. It simply describes the point at which the supply of oil can no longer keep up with the world's growing demand, which these days is coming more and more from the fast-growing economies of China and India. When supplies run short oil prices don't just go up, they skyrocket. A 2005 U.S. government report concluded that a four per cent shortfall would result in a 177 per cent increase in oil prices. It is possible that new reserves, like Alberta's tar sands, will help temper that jump in prices. But there's no avoiding the fact that the world has entered a whole new realm.

There could yet be a small silver lining in this grim future. In a society where drive-through banks and communities without sidewalks are commonplace, overweight North Americans might do well if forced to park their cars and walk a little. And there's no shortage of ways in which people could cut back their energy use. The U.S. Department of Transportation found that 67 per cent of car travel and 50 per cent of air travel is discretionary. "Oil has been so cheap and food so cheap that we use it in incredibly extravagant ways," says Gregory Clark, an economist at the University of California at Davis. Clark argues society could adapt in the long run to a world of US$200 or even US$500 a barrel oil. "In the ordinary course of technological advance we're getting about two per cent richer each year. A doubling of oil prices, at maximum, would take away about two or three years of growth." Overall, incomes might decline by about eight per cent, he says.

But even optimists like Clark admit that a painful period of adjustment is unavoidable. North America's car-crazy cities won't transform overnight. And even seemingly modest declines in income resulting from rising fuel costs can seem crippling to those already struggling in tough economic times. If the U.S. isn't already in a recession, as many economists believe, rising oil prices could provide the final nudge into a long and tumultuous downturn. Ditto for Canada, which last week reported a jump in inflation for the first time in six months, thanks largely to rising fuel costs, according to Statistics Canada. A 2005 report by the U.S. Department of Energy warned a sustained rise in oil prices would trigger inflation and unemployment and the "degradation of living standards." "The world has never confronted a problem like this," it concluded, "and the failure to act on a timely basis could have debilitating impacts on the world economy."

Unfortunately, failing to act in a timely way is precisely what we seem to be doing. "You can't replace hundreds of millions of private automobiles throughout the U.S. overnight. You can't even do it in five years," says Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities. Public policy — from decisions to invest in multi-billion-dollar freeway projects to airport expansions — remains stubbornly rooted in the idea that oil will be available and affordable far into the future, says Lerch.

The cost of oil, however, is beginning to hit public purses. If filling your SUV up with gas has you feeling queasy, think how the U.S. military must feel. It buys about 340,000 barrels of fuel a day. Its bill last year was US$13.6 billion — a nearly 25 per cent jump from the previous year. It is now trying to cut its oil use and experiment with alternative fuels, but the widespread use of such alternatives is at least a decade away — probably too far for politicians in search of a quick policy fix. Hillary Clinton ran into trouble recently when she proposed a summer gas-tax holiday to ease pump prices. A nice gesture, but one that would accomplish nothing, except maybe further boost demand for gas, economists pointed out. Any serious public talk about energy has focused squarely on global warming — "a huge distraction" that has got in the way of dealing with the much more urgent issue of oil security, says Gilbert.

In Canada, politicians will likely find themselves fighting new fires, like the growing division between oil-rich Alberta and Newfoundland, and the erstwhile economic heartland in Ontario and Quebec, with their ailing manufacturing sectors.

All signs suggest that planning for real change won't come until it's too late. "People don't wake up until things are flying apart," says Matt Savinar, a California lawyer who runs the website Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. Savinar is the kind of observer who not long ago would have been considered a dooms-day prophet. Nowadays, he says he feels more frustrated than he does vindicated by the surging oil prices. Everything that he's been preaching is coming true, but still no one is listening. "I bet that once we get within a few years of oil production peaking you'll see the U.S. invade the last large deposits. Oh wait, that already happened. You'll see rising food prices. Oh wait, that already happened. You'll see sky rocketing oil prices. Oh wait, that already happened. If you imagine your worst nightmare, we're right on track for that to come true. Just look at the news."



-- June 10, 2008 12:01 AM


tim bitts wrote:

A couple of comments on the article I posted:

The article I posted is very gloomy news, of course, about oil. It's obvious, there is a major economic transition happening, in the world economy. Like all large economic changes, there will be winners and losers. I believe we will be in the winner's camp.

Probably the largest transfer of wealth in human history, is starting to take place right now. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year are going from the industrialized world, and to the oil producing countries. This will sharply increase the value of their currencies. We have invested in a currency, that will have great value, in the near future. All of this means the value of your investment will go up dramatically, in the near future. I plan to buy more.

Once the American people figure all this out, about the world slowly running out of cheap oil, and all of what that means for their own individual lives, including their own economic vulnerability, and dependency on foreign oil, this will change politics in America in a drastic way. The process has no doubt started already. Everybody feels the pinch at the gas pump. Once the ordinary American starts to figure all of this out, there will be a large panic.

And if the Democrats get in the White House, before this panic happens, and if the Democrats pull out of Iraq, which now has the largest supply of cheap energy, in the world, and Iraq destabilizes as a result of the pullout, then such a move would drive up the cost of crude oil, even more, which would severely damage the American economy, which depends on oil. If this were to happen, the American public would figure this out eventually, and the Democrats would rightly be blamed, for the reckless stupidity of their foreign policy, in pulling out of Iraq.

There's no two ways about it. America must have access to oil reserves, even if the price is high, in order to preserve their way of life. It's a very dire situation.

It's dire, American vulnerability over oil, but I'm not saying America should steal the oil there, even if America desperately needs that oil. Definitely not. They should pay honest market value, to the Iraqis, and I know that is what they will do. I just think oil is so vital a commodity, that leaving the last large remaining source of cheap oil, pulling out of Iraq, when a civil war could still break out, disrupting oil supplies worldwide, pulling out now is shear crazy talk.

Yet Obama says that's what he will do, if elected. He either doesn't know anything about oil, or he knows, and is lying, for political reasons, and telling people what they are ready to hear, in order so that he can get elected. Either way, in light of the situation, of oil and the economy, pulling out of Iraq would be crazy, in my opinion.

It'll be interesting to see how openly and honestly energy is discussed in the election.

-- June 10, 2008 1:36 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Thanks (?) for the article. Seems pretty logical to me. The essence of " cause and effect".

My grandson was just visiting and he was explaining that his car gas bill has his schooling in jepordary more than anything else a this time.

You know we both agreed that all peoples are going to have to give up many of their confort zones. Here in California, billions of dolars have been spent on Rapid Transit programs. Yet the car pool lanes are always near empty, and the railways have these beautiful rail cars with less than 5 people in them.

I'm sure we will see all of that change.

In a sense like during the depression, adversity draws out the best in societies ( provided it doesn't get down to cannabolism :) ).

Politically, a potential outcome will be the world will be united by having a "common enemy", namely the oil rich nations. One only needs to have a slight imagination to predict what lies ahead.

Again, great article, and thank you.

carole

-- June 10, 2008 1:48 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

You are welcome. Look on the bright side. At least "grandma" will be able to afford to help out her family, in a very generous way, in a few years!

-- June 10, 2008 2:46 AM


tim bitts wrote:

For those of you, out there, brave souls, who would like to know, how the world might very well end, click on www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net I did. Now, I think I better go have a double scotch.

-- June 10, 2008 3:34 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iran warns of "painful" response if Israel attacks
Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:19pm BST

By Fredrik Dahl

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's defence minister was quoted on Tuesday as warning Israel of a "very painful" response if it launched a military strike over the Islamic Republic's disputed nuclear programme.

On Friday, Israeli Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told an Israeli newspaper an attack on Iran looked "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of United Nations sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential.

"Our armed forces are at the height of their readiness and if anyone should want to undertake such a foolish job the response would be very painful," the state Iran daily quoted Iranian Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar as saying.

Some Israeli political commentators have accused Mofaz, whose comments helped drive up oil prices to a record $139 a barrel on Friday, of making them to advance his personal political ambitions.

In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asked ministers at the weekly cabinet meeting on Tuesday to refrain from discussing sensitive matters publicly, officials said.

Israel, widely believed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, has described Iran's nuclear programme as a threat to its existence. Olmert last week said it must be stopped by "all possible means."

Iran does not recognise Israel and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is regularly predicting its demise.

The United States, which is leading efforts to isolate Tehran over nuclear work the West fears is aimed at making bombs, says it wants a diplomatic solution to the row but has not ruled out military action if that were to fail. Continued...Israel bombed an Iraqi reactor in 1981 and an Israeli air raid on Syria last September razed what the United States said was a nascent nuclear reactor built with North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.

But many analysts say Iran's nuclear sites are too numerous, distant and fortified for Israel to take on alone.

"Israel cannot do it on its own," London-based defence analyst Andrew Brookes told Reuters. "It is beyond the capability of the Israeli air force to do it because of the distance involved and the dispersed nature of all the sites."

"The only way it can be done is with the full assistance of the United States," said Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank.

Iran, which says its nuclear work is solely for generating electricity, has threatened to retaliate if it is attacked.

Its Shahab-3 missile, with a range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), is capable of hitting Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf, Iranian officials say.

-- June 10, 2008 8:25 AM


Sara wrote:

timbitts and board;

I liked your assessment of the game and the need for a good quarterback. And I thought it worthwhile pointing out that in recent memory ONLY McCain thought we could win in Iraq. Everyone else was into "distancing" themselves from the "failed policies" of President Bush. In light of the last article you posted on oil, those policies to protect America's interests in oil alone are not only with merit, but downright brilliant.

In the near past, the media pointed McCain out like a strange eccentric whose ideas were not only far from reality, but not shared by anyone who "knew anything". Now that McCain's stance over Iraq has turned out to be right and we now know that the surge worked, we can see that we are on the cusp of real victory and security for Iraq's freedom AND for America's oil supply - something we must not minimize due to its enormous impact.

Perhaps that is the reason God chose John McCain over every other candidate to be the next President of the United States. Because only McCain had the guts and game plan which is truly realistic and winning for the American people in light of the realities facing us in the future. Only his view - standing up for finishing the task and securing Iraq - will do the most good for the country of America and the world of any other possible choice.

As you pointed out timbitts.. we need a quarterback who will win the game... and everyone else running for President was into losing on BOTH sides of the isle. McCain was and remains the only one who threw his weight and candidacy behind Iraq and wanting to win there.. a stance which won him nothing but notoriety and ridicule for quite some time. His stand in the face of adversity has been admirable - perhaps his life experience in handling the unsavory and horrible experience of torture had an eternal plan and aim.. because no one else made a stand and had the guts to weather such MSM persecution (except, of course, the President himself).

All things considered, McCain will make a very worthwhile President, just watch.

Another thought I had was this.. if Israel gets to the point that the (retired) defense minister spoke of - of being threatened so much by Iran that Israel truly feels they must strike Iran.. and they go to war, pulling the US in with them (in spite of not really wanting to go to war right now, particularly during the election cycle), it will change the dynamic of the race.

ZOOM to the top of the list will go the public looking for leadership, foreign expertise and most of all Commander-in-chief qualifications in electing the next President. It just may happen. That is a realistic and probable - though publicly unforseen - circumstance which may just give John McCain the Presidency. God's hand is over all circumstances. After all, would the public vote the inexperienced Obama (who has no qualifications for the job of Commander-in-chief, see url below) into the Whitehouse when the country is actively engaged (albeit unwillingly) in war against Iran?

Obama's lack of qualifications post:
http://truckandbarter.com/mt/archives/2008/04/dinar_discussio_2.html#134871

Sara.

-- June 10, 2008 8:55 AM


Sara wrote:

US military: 5 suspects arrested in Baghdad including alleged al-Qaida in Iraq leaders
The Associated Press
June 10, 2008

BAGHDAD: The U.S. military says it's captured two alleged al-Qaida in Iraq leaders and three other men in Baghdad.

A statement from the military says the men belong to an al-Qaida-linked group with roots in Iraq's western Anbar province, but which currently operates in the northern belts around Baghdad.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/10/africa/ME-GEN-Iraq-Raids.php

-- June 10, 2008 9:19 AM


Sara wrote:

GCC approves a draft agreement for monetary union
Bahrain Tribune - 10/06/2008

(MENAFN - Bahrain Tribune) Gulf Arab central bankers approved a draft agreement for monetary union yesterday and would likely set up the nucleus of a regional central bank by next year, a senior Gulf official said.

"The draft has been approved by the governors," Naser Al Kaud, deputy assistant secretary-general for the Gulf Cooperation Council Secretariat told Reuters after the meeting in the Qatari capital, Doha. "The finance ministers will look at it on Sept. 17 in Jeddah," he said.

Kaud said the agreement on Monday was a "major step" toward achieving monetary union. The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Oman has opted not to join monetary union. Gulf states aimed to sign an agreement in November to set up a common monetary council, which would then need to be ratified by each state."It will hopefully be operational next year," Kaud said.

Gulf central bank governors will meet again in September to complete the framework for monetary union after failing to finish the task at a meeting yesterday. The governors agreed to "the most important terms" and aim to complete the framework at a meeting in August, Qatar central bank Governor Abdulla Bin Saud Al Thani told reporters in Doha. Five of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Saudi Arabia, plan to create a single currency in 2010.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093199863

-- June 10, 2008 9:30 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara,

Yes, the President knew about Peak Oil, and it's implications, many years ago. After all, the President and Vice President each have a life time experience, in the oil business. That means he also knew, years ago, that he would have to take steps to protect the American economy, and the American people.

This reminds me very much of the lead up to American involvement in WWII. President Roosevelt could see trouble coming many years before most Americans, including the media and academic elite, could see it. He knew that America would eventually be dragged into the war. Yet Americans had strong isolationist tendencies at the time, and for a long time, most Americans would not accept American involvement in, what they thought of as, an exclusively European war.

So President Roosevelt did all he could, under the circumstances, to help Britain, including the lend least program. Meanwhile, President Roosevelt quietly pushed ahead with plans, for war with Nazi Germany, for he knew eventually public opinion would catch up, with the facts in the world.

And, of course, American public opinion did eventually catch up.

Canada, with it's closer historic ties to Britain, jumped into the war, a couple years ahead of the Americans. The same thing is happening here. America has a President that is many years ahead of the public, the media, and most of the intellectual elite in the country, in understanding a very serious problem.

I'm not sure, exactly when, the public will catch up to President Bush, but catch up, they will. They simply have no choice. Unless some huge scientific discovery, giving the world cheap energy, pops out of nowhere, or unless massively huge amounts of new reserves are found, of the order of magnitude of several Saudi Arabias, or unless the world economy decides to crash and burn, worldwide, instead of continuing to grow as it is now, at a reasonably fair clip, which would temporarily lower the price of crude, unless one of these things happen, high oil prices are here to stay.

High energy prices will have a huge impact on the lives of ordinary Americans, in ways they are barely beginning to feel, right now. This will mean the public will eventually see the wisdom of the President's policies, in the Middle East, in regards to securing America's energy future.

-- June 10, 2008 10:37 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq Eying First Field Tenders in June or Early July
by Hassan Hafidh Dow Jones Newswires Monday, June 09, 2008


AMMAN, June 9, 2008 (Dow Jones Newswires)

The Iraqi oil ministry is planning to announce the first round of tenders to develop its vast oil fields, which are among the world's largest, at the end of June or the beginning of July, an Iraqi oil official said Monday.

"Iraq is going to announce the first round of tenders to develop super giant oil fields in southern and northern Iraq either at the end of June or the beginning of July," the official told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone from Baghdad.


The official named seven oil fields and two gas fields that would be included in the first tender announcement. They are North Rumaila, South Rumaila, Zubair, West Qurna, and Buzurgan in southern Iraq and Kirkuk and Bai Hassan in northern Iraq. The two gas fields are Akkaz in western part of the country and Mansouriya in the east.

Over the last few months, the ministry has been working to prepare contract models for these fields, the official said. The ministry has signaled that more restrictive service contracts may be used to develop these fields, rather than controversial production-sharing contracts.

The official said the ministry would hold a news conference to announce these new tenders.

Iraq is currently in the final stages of striking what are called Technical Services Contracts, or TSCs, with oil majors to help boost crude oil production in the country's largest producing fields.

Iraqi oil sources said these TSCs could be signed as early as June. Each would last two years and could be extended for another year.

Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani has threatened to cancel these TSCs if they aren't signed in June. The TSCs are designed to boost Iraq's crude oil production from producing oil fields.

Iraq wants to boost production by 600,000 barrels a day in six producing oil fields in northern and southern Iraq. They are Kirkuk in the north, West Qurna 1, Zubair, Missan, Rumaila and Luhais in the south.

Iraq is currently producing around 2.5 million barrels a day, a tiny fraction of its 115 billion barrels of proven crude reserves, the world's third largest.

So far BP PLC and Exxon Mobil Corp. have submitted TSC proposals to the Iraqi Oil Ministry, and at least three more oil majors are also expected to submit their plans to Iraq to develop to other oil fields.
(www.ringzone.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 10:46 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Emirates to send envoy to Baghdad
6/6/2008


Emirates to send envoy to Baghdad

Iraq says the United Arab Emirates will name an ambassador to Baghdad within days, the first such move by one of the US-allied Gulf states in several years.

The announcement came during a visit by the UAE foreign minister, who is the highest-ranking Gulf official to go to Iraq since the 2003 US-led invasion.

The US has been urging the mainly Sunni-led Arab states to do more to bolster Iraq's US-backed government.

Baghdad has had no Arab envoys based there since Egypt's was killed in 2005.

Egyptian ambassador Ihab al-Sherif was abducted in July of that year and killed a few days later, prompting many Arab missions to withdraw diplomatic staff, and domestic criticism of Cairo that the appointment of an ambassador was premature.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan on a previously unannounced visit held talks with Prime Minister Nouri Maliki as well as his counterpart Hoshyar Zebari and President Jalal Talabani.

Washington and Baghdad have been calling for the mainly Sunni-led Arab governments to establish high-level diplomatic representation with Mr Maliki's Shia-led government.

The US and Iraq have also been seeking debt forgiveness from the Gulf states.

Iraq owes more than $60bn (£30bn) in debt in total, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia among the biggest creditors. It also owes about $28bn in compensation claims dating from the 1991 Gulf War.
(www.safedinar.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 10:49 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

FACTBOX: Key data on Iraq's economy
6/6/2008


FACTBOX: Key data on Iraq's economy


(Reuters) - Iraq renewed a call to foreign creditors at a conference in Stockholm on Thursday to cancel about $60 billion in debts.

Here are some forecasts and data on the Iraqi economy, mostly drawn from a report to the Stockholm meeting published by the Iraqi government.

GDP

-- Economic growth is expected to reach 8 percent this year, the Iraqi government report said. Gross Domestic Product growth in the year to March 2008 was 1.3 percent, according to an International Monetary Fund estimate quoted in the report.

DEBT RELIEF

-- The U.S. State Department estimates that about $66.5 billion of Iraq's $120.2 billion foreign debt has been forgiven.

BUDGET

-- The 2008 budget was passed with an estimated deficit of 8.4 percent of GDP.


OIL REVENUES

-- The volume of oil output and exports are at their highest levels since 2004, according to the Iraqi government, with oil revenues this year expected to reach a record $70 billion.

An economic reform program submitted to the IMF by Iraq's government in December 2007 set a target of increasing oil output from 2.0 million barrels per day in 2007 to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2008.

CENTRAL BANK RESERVES

-- Net international reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq are expected to increase to around $34 billion by the end of 2008, allowing for larger capital budget allocations in coming years.

INFLATION

-- Inflation, which reached 65 percent in 2006, fell to 22 percent in 2007, the report said. The IMF targets inflation of 12 percent for 2008, it said.

(Source unless otherwise stated: Iraq government's annual review of progress 2007/08 on the International Compact with Iraq)

(Compiled by Adrian Croft; Editing by Michael Georgy)


FACTBOX: Key data on Iraq's economy - Source
(www.safedinar.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 10:51 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Jordan to name ambassador to Iraq soon

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Amman, 10 June 2008 (Gulf News)
Print article Send to friend
Jordan said on Monday it would name a new ambassador to Iraq soon to help strengthen ties with the government of Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki.

"We now see in this phase the need to support and back Iraq politically as we see intensive efforts to attain reconciliation that would bring stability," government spokesman Nasser Joudeh told reporters.

Washington has long urged Arab states to beef up embassies in Baghdad as a sign of support for the government.

The UAE and Bahrain announced earlier this month they would also name ambassadors to Baghdad.

No Arab country has had a permanent ambassador in Baghdad since Egypt's ambassador was kidnapped and killed shortly after arriving in 2005.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 10:53 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iran and Iraq agree defence pact

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tehran, 10 June 2008 (Reuters)
Print article Send to friend
Iran and Iraq agreed to boost defence cooperation during a visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to Tehran on Monday, Iran’s official IRNA news agency said, giving few details on the content of the agreement.

Iran’s Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar signed a memorandum of understanding on defence cooperation with his Iraqi counterpart, Abdul Qader Jassim, IRNA said.

Mine clearance and the search for soldiers missing in action would be part of the planned cooperation, it said.

The two majority Shi’ite Muslim countries fought an eight-year war in the 1980s, in which 1 million people were killed, but ties have improved since Sunni Arab strongman Saddam Hussein was ousted in the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

”The two parties, stressing the importance of defence cooperation in the balanced expansion of ties ... called for development of this sort of cooperation with the aim of strengthening peace and stability in the region,” IRNA said.

Earlier on Monday, Iran’s supreme leader told Maliki that the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq was the biggest obstacle to its development as a united country.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hit out at the ”occupiers” in Iraq at a time when Baghdad is negotiating with the United States on a new agreement aimed at giving a legal basis for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq after Dec. 31, when their U.N. mandate expires.

Iran blames the presence of U.S. troops for the violence that followed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq five years ago.

The United States accuses Iran of arming, training and funding Shi’ite militias in Iraq. Tehran denies the charge.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 10:58 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq may or may not have provincial in October. Like most things in Iraq we will have to wait.
__________________________________________________________

British Ambassador urges Iraqi Parliament to approve elections law 10/06/2008 14:33:00

Baghdad (NINA)- The British Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Prentice has urged the Iraqi Parliament to vote on the Provincial Election's Low as soon as possible, so that these elections would be held on its stated date.
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 10, 2008 11:01 AM


Carole wrote:

Rob,

A few questions:
Regarding you article posted concerning the apparent kiss and make up going on between Iraq and Iran, how will that impact the Dinar.

Regarding Sara's post concerning the Common Monetary Currency agreement in the Arab nations, how will that also affect the Dinar.

Why would the US allow or promote any type of cohesiveness between Iraq and Iran?

This is where I get so frustrated and angry, if I am understanding the implications correctly.

If we have spent billions and given precious lives to promote democracy in Iraq, why would we not interfere with ANY negotiations between Iraq and Iran ( which brings Syria right along with them).

Ya know if I understand these articles presented, I say let's get the hell out of there, and put all the money and resources and clean under our own door steps, where democracy is slipping away from the American people ,daily as we speak.

Please make necessary corrections to my thinking and understandings.

Thank You

Carole

-- June 10, 2008 11:59 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Scotch won't do it!

Stockpile cyanide pills.......they will pay of thousands of times higher than we will ever see the dinar pay-off!

Carole

-- June 10, 2008 12:23 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Carole, you are quite funny at times, in your cynicism. Keep it up! Keep it up!!! I consider it to be a challenge to my somewhat world weary guarded optimism, on the Dinar. And remember, as Chinese Communist Party leader, Chairman Mao once said, "It's always blackest before.........it gets even darker!

-- June 10, 2008 1:23 PM


cornishboy wrote:

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Texas
Posts: 607

Are they talking about lower denominations??

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Economic event: the currency and prices


Hadi taste
Some writers speak on economic affairs from politics price of States and Governments and their role in the economy of families, Eakdhun policy of supporting the prices of some products claiming that the results appeared to support in the medium term has proved to be more cost-financial implications of the community, and the reason is due to a fall in the conduct of the State Directed economy. Indeed, the policy of support of some goods, products and services even resorted to by State and Government whenever necessary, but that some countries and governments to which they apply a policy of free market and the market economy had been adopted institutions and enterprises within the sector worker m, and then subject to privatization despite being institutions And profitable enterprises. Perhaps one of the Great States in the ancient market capitalist economy, the first of States and Governments that have little in this area.

The question is not in the (privatization) or (Amuammh) economic structures and not in
State intervention in itself Tsber economy and direction, but given the extent of consistency aspects of the national economy arbitrator produce coherent economic Espace Court.

The Maqil He said that state intervention has damaged citizens caused by the increase in costs to meet, but Ta Te loopholes and gaps in the elements of the economic process and its aspects, not only alone is reason for the policy and price. N objectives, which is the question of prices that monetary policy (currency) of the State in light of overall economic policy, as well as the systematic follow-up of prices.

Where were smaller cash currency in circulation large numbers as in the (250) Dinara, citizens found themselves obliged to deal on the basis of this large amount, as the smallest unit of cash between currencies that are being dealt with. Thus, any increase occur on any commodity or commodity or service, but --- begin this unit cash, they directly intervene in politics price traded daily, which imposes itself, on this unit is determined by the cash prices of daily consumer goods in particular, especially In conditions which do not stop the market from moving vertically whenever there Hamsaa clothing or affect the market Abeche.

And therefore invites citizens to complain of price rises, is customary among specialists and concerned b (inflation).

.. What is happening in what is not in daily consumption, where necessary needs of large inescapable be provided, with prices increasing at rates of up to the currency union between five thousand and ten thousand, even hundred thousand, and more, the largest increase whenever the stakes good or Goods, especially with the presence of (corruption) and spending on Hogerdharori or essential and which is Tbaziria Aotervia compared to other Mmaho duty to act or reformed and developed.

That is what leads to not only to inflation but to daring as the base currency in the work of any pricing policy.

Hence, the demand for application of the foundations must be done, attracted attention towards the close scrutiny to avoid the other in the process of economic gaps Aotkatat or harmony side by side claim the division of small monetary unit, which is here of 250 dinars, to the units getting smaller.

http://www.almadapaper.com/paper.php...page&sid=44277

-- June 10, 2008 2:08 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Hi, I just wanted to say to anyone reading this blog, I have posted a number of opinions, on this blog. They are just that: opinion. If anyone has different opinions, or knows different facts from what I know, that lead them to different conclusions that I draw, I welcome people challenging my opinions. I have been wrong about a lot of things in the past, and expect to be wrong about some things in the future. That's life. But I form my opinions, based on what I read and think. So, if I'm wrong about anything, I'm totally open to other opinions, and to be made aware of facts that I know nothing about, at this point. Thanks.

PS: I also like good jokes.

-- June 10, 2008 2:23 PM


cornishboy wrote:

NY post say EAT CROW, IRAQ WAR SKEPTICS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

June 9, 2008 -- AMERICA has won, or is about to win, the Iraq war.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06092008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/eat_crow__iraq_war_skeptics_114671.htm

-- June 10, 2008 2:38 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

A couple comments on President Bush

As I said in previous posts, I think President Bush knew about Peak Oil a long time ago. I think it weighed into his thinking, and was one of several factors that led him to authorize war with Iraq.

Is this plausible? I think so:

Looking back at the Bush family, his dad, George HW Bush, founded and ran his own oil company, when his son, George Bush, was much younger. So the current President grew up around the oil business. When he chose a career, the current President Bush chose the oil business. He was senior partner at several oil company startups.

Then, when he was older still, the current President watched his dad, who was President for the first Gulf War, lead the effort in that war. No doubt, he had many discussions with his dad, over why America got involved, in that war.

That war, like this one, involved oil resources. Saddam had decided he wanted to steal an entire country, Kuwaiit, and all the oil in it. And Bush Sr. obviously understood the strategic importance of oil. He also knew, if Saddam were not stopped, he just might invade other oil rich countries, to steal their oil as well, so he had to be stopped.

All of this, of course, the son, George Bush, had a first row seat, watching the whole thing, up close. All the lessons of what happened, he absorbed.

Thinking about both Presidents, and their business careers, both were senior oil executives, privy to the best data on oil, some available to the public, other data probably not. Both men probably were very well versed in Peak Oil, and the many and complicated facets of energy. And they probably have been very well informed about the future of energy, for several decades.

The American government has been studying the future of energy for a long time. I have no doubt both men were completely up to speed on all facets of energy.

So, my guess is, this President has been thinking about oil and energy, in great detail, for several decades at least.

I remember that a number of liberal writers have written disparagingly of the current President Bush, saying that he was discussing invading Iraq, right immediately after getting elected. That may very well be. And this charge is usually followed by pronouning that this is evidence of the President's supposed cowboyish, warmongering, hot headed nature.

I don't agree with that assessment.

I think the reasons why the President was considering going to war, even at an early stage of his presidency, were probably a lot different than what most liberals think.

Several things were likely playing, in his mind.

I think, at the time, he probably was aware that all the evidence showed that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, and posed a threat. And he knew that America's energy future was not secure, and the President was probably very well versed in the consequences of Peak Oil, and it's negative implications, and he decided that, all things considered, America better secure her energy future.

There were other factors beyond oil.

Like, because of 9-11, President Bush also realized that a confrontation with the Muslim world was here, and because of radical Islamic extremism, coupled with America's achilles heal, which is energy, all this posed a great long term danger to the future peace and prosperity of America, and the rest of the world. Remember, he has a history degree from Yale, in 1968. He thinks like an historian, as well as oil man.

The combination of having a history degree, which trained his mind to take a very general, and long term view of the world, coupled with his lifetime experience, in the oil business, and a good working knowledge of Peak Oil and it's implications, combined with the fact that he was interested in politics and got elected President, all combined to make him uniquely qualified to react on energy security, and Iraq, the way he did.

And, as time went on with the war, or perhaps even before, the President figured out that helping the Iraqis build up a democracy would help defeat Islamic terrorism, as well as stabilize the government that was sitting on the strategic oil reserves that were going to power much of the world's economy, over the next 30 years. I recall that recently, a high ranking Iraqi government oil official declared that there was convincing seismic evidence that Iraq now had the largest reserve of petroleum in the world, not the 3rd largest, as was previously supposed.

And of course, as if he needed more prodding, I recall that the CIA uncovered a plot, funded by Saddam, to kill his father, George Bush Sr., as revenge for his leading the effort to kick Saddam out of Kuwaiit.

Of course, in deciding to go to war, he likely had other considerations I know nothing about, but my guess is, looking back, and trying to piece together his thinking, my guess is he considered all these things, and decided war with Iraq was the right and necessary thing to do.

It's quite odd that this President is often portrayed as some sort of a thoughtless idiot, by the liberal media, and especially by late night comics. It seems, looking back, and with current and future energy prices, being what they currently are, and will likely be, with all that in mind, and thinking about what needed to be done about all that, it is almost eerie, the degree to which he was ahead of everyone, in figuring out, what was coming, and what needed to be done.

The idiots appear to be his critics, who can't put this puzzle together, from the pieces lying all around them.

I remember, one time, on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Jon's guess, historian Michael Beschsloss, (I probably spelled his name wrong) was on, less than half way through the President's second term, and had already pronounced that President Bush was the worst president, in American history. Now, historians generally take decades to reach their decisions. There is a good reason for that. Often, the rhyme or reason of a thing, often only become clear, with hindsight, a great deal later. This historian forgot that cardinal rule of patience, before judgement, on important things. This man, probably pandering to his liberal audience, cheaped himself by rushing to judgement about things that will take decades to sort out.

All for a cheap laugh.

In a few years, as the full effects of high oil prices, and the scarcity of resources become better known, and the reason for the President's policy, in the middle east become clear, even liberals will eventually be forced, by the facts, to reconsider their hasty verdict, on President Bush.

That's how I see it.

-- June 10, 2008 4:39 PM


cornishboy wrote:

-- June 10, 2008 6:30 PM


NEIL wrote:

Tim:

You are a little like Sara in that you present such a good case to further the point that you are making that I always hesitate to question anything but I do take issue with you on oil.

The article that you posted was right on target and I subscribed to it 100% but your idea that Mr. Bush had vision and wisdom in invading Iraq to quarantee a secure oil supply leaves me scratching my ass. From everything that I read, we are paying outsiders rates for gasoline in Iraq to fight the battle for them. I also fail to make any connection to oil in our mission in Iraq.
I believe that when they are satisfied that we have served our purpose there that they will ask us to leave and we will have the same opportunity as everyone else to buy their oil at the going rate. I contend that so long as we are willing to pay the going rate that we can buy oil from someone with no problem.

I see oil (or lack of) as our downfall but I also see oil as our savior insofar as the progress of the dinar. At some point Iraq has to join the rest of the world and let their currancy float with the world so Iraq seems to have a great future but I have not figured out what our role in that future will be.

-- June 11, 2008 12:04 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Neil,

Your points are well taken. Many people have stated, why go to war? America can just buy the oil. But will Americans always be able to buy oil, at the going rate? Is that true? In a world where oil is in terminal long term decline, which is the world described in Peak Oil Theory, the owner of oil has unusual amounts of power. America will be competing with a variety of countries, who also may have the financial resources to bid for oil. Whether they get that oil or not, will be up to the discretion and choice, made by the owner and controller of that oil. That would give oil rich middle eastern countries even more power over the American economy, than they already have.

America's reaction in trying to secure middle eastern oil is perfectly natural and understandable, given the overall picture of oil. Most countries, like people, try to maximize the amount of control they have over commodities that are vital to their continuing economic health.

Let me give you a common sense analogy of how I see the situation in Iraq, and the middle east:

Suppose I lived in a town, in a hot place, where drinking lots of water was necessary for survival, and the only source of drinking water, was one man I didn't particularily get along with, and had, in fact, had several serious disputes and fights with. In fact, suppose I was often the enemy of this man, for a variety of reasons, going back a very long time. And suppose there was no real law officer in this town, to be sure everyone had fair and adequate access to this water. And suppose, in fact, that I knew very well that the town was experiencing the start of a very long draught, that could leave many people dead. And suppose there were too many people in this town, they all depended on water to continue to live, and they couldn't leave this town. And suppose this sometime friend, sometime enemy, who owned the water, was willing to sell me this lifegiving water, at a very high price, as long as I kept on my best behaviour, and occasionally kissed his rear. And suppose I was a fair man, and the strongest man in town.

How long would I put up with this situation?

The situation I just described, as I see it, is pretty much the situation America finds itself in, in regards to oil. It's not a pretty picture.

I guess you're right, to some degree, that America could buy the oil, if it could outbid the other potential buys, and if the owners of the oil would sell it that oil. But that leaves America in a pretty weak and vulnerable position. I don't think that is a good thing, I think that could cause any number of problems, and I don't think America will tolerate such a weak position for long.

One of my core beliefs is that the real world runs on power. Whoever runs the world is whoever is strongest. I believe strongly in morals, too, and I hope the strong will be moral. America runs on power, strength, and the willingness to exercise power, both economic and military. I think it's pretty natural that American leaders would try to minimize economic vulnerability. It seems the sensible and prudent thing to do. It's a pretty nasty world out there, Neil. The world will not do America any favours. Whether American continue to enjoy a high standard of living, and be the world's dominant power, depends on many things, one of which is control over economic resources. Ownership of resources follows whoever is dominant, and the strongest, as the original Aboriginal inhabitants of this continent found out, over the last several hundred years, as Europeans slowly acquired this entire North American continent.

The middle east is a very dangerous place, Neil, where there is little prospect of peace, and keeping the oil flowing, vital to the American economy, without someone around, with a big stick, whether it is local Arab governments, or American troops. Even Jimmy Carter, the most pacifist American president in my memory, publically stated a number of times, that anyone who interferred with the movement of oil, in the region, would have to deal with American military power. He recognized the reality, that the threat of raw power always had to be there, in order to keep peace in the region, and the oil flowing. I believe Carter was right in recognizing that raw power, and a willingness to use it, if need be, is essential in controlling oil, and keeping it flowing. That's not a pretty picture, but I think it's a fair and accurate representation of reality in the middle east. I don't think the place resembles a church picnic in rural Iowa.

I think you are right about the Dinar, that eventually Iraq will have to join the rest of the world, and let it's currency free float. I'm looking forward to that day.

Anyhow, if you can't see the connection between oil, and America being there, what is your opinion, as to why America is in Iraq, and spending so much money, in this fight? What for?

I alway enjoy your straight talk and common sense. I respect that. Thanks.

As to whether or not, what I have to say make sense, and is true, time will tell.

-- June 11, 2008 2:03 AM


cornishboy wrote:

-- June 11, 2008 9:16 AM


Sara wrote:

The reason

The reason Barack Obama constantly looks backward at the past and ridicules the decisions which were taken during the Bush Presidency is because he does not know what the future holds for America. He has no vision for the future - other than to say he will do the opposite of what has already been done and "reverse course" from what has already been decided.

In this way, he is capitalizing on the discontent of the people with the decisions which were taken - but the people of America do not seem to have acknowledged that there has been progress, victory even, in Iraq and the Global War on Terror - and that the Homeland has been kept safe from attack for President Bush's entire Presidency. It is a case of not giving the rightful dues to those who have been responsible for an outcome which continues to be proven to be true, good and correct for America and her safety.

All Barack Obama and the Mainstream Media (MSM) can do is capitalize on whatever discontent they find within the population. To aid both the MSM and BO is the fact that the American people are fickle as "political" lovers - flitting, as they do in their own relationships - from one relational love to another with carefree abandon. Never considering that what they have is precious, but always seeking a more perfect love, one without the blemishes of the one they just left. Regretfully, as with the high divorce rate, those seeking "more and better" most often actually end up with far less and far worse - to the detriment of the society as a whole.
Isa 48:22 There is no peace, says the LORD, to the wicked.

timbitts - I appreciate your sharing your opinions, which are interesting and thought provoking. I agree very strongly on your statements, "One of my core beliefs is that the real world runs on power. Whoever runs the world is whoever is strongest. Raw power, and a willingness to use it, if need be, is essential in controlling oil, and keeping it flowing." (end quote)

This is the reality of megapolitical factors (such as oil) on the world stage. Unfortunately, peaceniks have never come to see that reality due to their insular living. Because they have lived in peace and prosperity all their lives, they do not question (or understand) what underpins it. The sacrifice American servicemen and women are making for this war - and the sacrifices made in the past by others in previous wars - is lost on their mentality. They have no perception whatsoever that without these sacrifices America would cease to be that strong power which protects their freedom from being taken by another powerful governmental entity - likely with far less tolerance for their discontent. They scream for their "rights" but they do not understand the necessity of the sacrifice given for them to enjoy those freedoms they use to express their discontent.

"The tree of liberty must be watered periodically with the blood of tyrants and patriots alike. It is its natural manure." - Thomas Jefferson

May God grant the sacrifice necessary to be few on our behalf, and not many..

Sara.

-- June 11, 2008 11:39 AM


cornishboy wrote:

The 2012 Enigma by David Wilcock Pt. 03 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmVaOYDQAiY

-- June 11, 2008 1:15 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara, thanks. You said, "peaceniks have never come to see that reality due to their insular living. Because they have lived in peace and prosperity all their lives, they do not question (or understand) what underpins it."

I think that's true. I have an older sister, who has been quite wealthy, for about 25 years. She married a wealthy doctor. She is a liberal, and very much against George Bush. Every now and then she will say the silliest, most naive things. The other day she said, "I think we should take down the borders in Canada, and just let in whoever wants to come in." Now, that's a lovely, inclusive sentiment, and she has a very kind heart to people that are suffering, which is admirable, but what would be the practical consequences of this? I'll bet several billion illiterate, hungry, oppressed people, from around the world would just LOVE to come to Canada....And Canada as a peaceful, prosperous country would last about five minutes, after we let in as many people who actually would like to live here.....and her beautiful, upper-scale neighborhood, with it's properties each valued at over a million dollars each, would be ransacked with crime and poverty hungry people overnight.

I'm all for helping the world's poor, and I regularly donate to causes that try to end world hungry, but I don't want a few billion starving people in Canada, at my doorstep.

My sister was not being fecicious. I wish she was. She has just lived such a pampered, secure lifestyle, so cut off from ordinary problems and insecurities, that she has lost all touch, with most people's reality. She's a classic liberal. She's quite bright, has a very good heart, but is naive.

Most people are obviously somewhat shaped by their experience. Myself, I have spent a lot of time in Third World countries, and got to know alot of people from a wide variety of countries, and religions and economic classes, from around the world. That's why I believe the things I do. My sister, on the other hand, has travelled, not as much as me, but a bit. She usually goes to 5 star resorts, in places like Jamaica. So her idea of Jamaica is, it's a place where everyone eats like a king or queen, the beaches are lovely, and all these smiling friendly natives serve her, and entertain her. This gives her a very positive attitude toward Jamaicans, which is great, but she doesn't travel to the poor areas, and get to know the real problem people face, and what life is really like. So she ends up with a very naive view of the overall picture of what Jamaica and it's people are like.

I suspect the same sort of thing goes on in the lives of millions of people. Most things that impact humans are the things they experience the most closely. And living with too much wealth or distance from other human beings, can, for some people, though not all, of having the effect of mentally distancing people that are well off, from the realities of the world, and people that are different than themselves.

The funny thing, is, she truly has a good heart for alot of people, and thinks she truly "understands" them, when the truth is, she partly understands them, through her genial, benign, though shallow compassion; but she misses much of the reality that surrounds her.

So, political views are, to some degree, shaped by personal experience and perception. I like my sister an awful lot, and although we disagree politically, we do so respectfully. I think I understand where she is coming from, so all though we disagree, there doesnt need to be any animosity between us.

And I have found, in the rest of my life, I like most liberals. I don't need to believe everything they believe to get along. And besides, most people are about so many other things, that political beliefs are only a very small part of who anybody is.

PS Charlie Rose had a bit of a discussion, about the high price of oil, yesterday, and the video is available on his website. I think the implications of high energy prices will inevitably become the largest news story of the next 5-10 years, and for the general public and voter, I think that process has just started. I expect to see an awful lot more of this, in the mainstream media, as they are forced to catch up with economic realities, about start thinking a bit more seriously, about oil. To date, since the first energy crises of the late seventies, there was precious little public discussion, in the mainstream media, of the enormous energy challenges ahead, but that will change.

And eventually, Iraq, and the security of energy supplies, will become part of that discussion.

-- June 11, 2008 2:57 PM


Sara wrote:

Jewish Dem donor joins McCain team
By Alexander Bolton
Posted: 06/10/08

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is attracting elite Jewish Democratic donors who backed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and are concerned about Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) stance toward Israel, say McCain backers who are organizing the effort to court Democrats.

McCain has already had several fundraising events with Jewish Democrats in Washington and Florida, say his supporters.

He also has the backing of Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), who made history as the first Jewish vice presidential candidate and has recently raised questions about Obama’s foreign policy vision for the Middle East.

Stephen Muss, the Florida developer, is the biggest Democratic donor and fundraiser to pledge his support for McCain and the Republican National Committee, said a GOP official. Muss has given tens of thousands of dollars to help Democratic candidates in recent years, including $80,000 to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics and CQ MoneyLine.

Muss did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday afternoon.

“Many Jewish Democrats are sensing there is such an existential threat to Israel that you have to vote for an individual who strongly supports the U.S.-Israel relationship,” said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), chairman of the GOP’s Jewish Victory Coalition.

Cantor said McCain held a fundraising breakfast with Republican and Democratic Jewish donors last week at the Hyatt Hotel in Washington, D.C.

“The playing field is wide open for John McCain as far as attracting Jewish support,” he said.

Cantor said Muss would help bring more Jewish Democratic donors in South Florida over to McCain.

“He’s an influential player,” said Cantor. “From my knowledge of his influence in South Florida, that’s significant.”

Brian Ballard, a prominent McCain fundraiser, said that several major Jewish Democratic donors have said they will join McCain’s camp.

“There are Bill Clinton folks who for the last three to six months we’ve been pushing to get involved,” said Ballard in an interview last week, referring to former President Bill Clinton. “In Florida there are a lot of people not happy with Obama’s stance with regards to Israel and regards to Cuba. We’re starting to see some significant people come over.

“Democrats who are traditional large Democratic givers are coming over to our side,” said Ballard.

Jewish support is especially important in Florida, a crucial swing state where Obama trails McCain in recent polls. Jewish voters make up about 5 percent of the electorate in that state. Florida’s Jewish community is also a lucrative source of political fundraising.

Jewish Democrats are concerned about Obama’s stance toward Israel, and many big donors from this group supported Clinton. McCain has moved aggressively in recent days to win their allegiance since Clinton dropped her White House bid.

“Her dropping out was huge in terms of potential for crossover voting and crossover support,” said Cantor.

Jewish Democrats are concerned about Obama for several reasons. While stumping in Iowa last year, Obama told Democratic activists, “Nobody is suffering more than the Palestinian people.”

Some Jewish voters interpreted the statement as a sign that Obama would be overly sympathetic to the Palestinian side in future peace negotiations with Israel. And some are concerned about a senior Obama adviser’s comments regarding the influence of American Jews on foreign policy. Merrill “Tony” McPeak, the former Air Force chief of staff, told the Portland Oregonian newspaper in 2003 that the political influence of the Jewish community had hampered efforts to negotiate peace in the Middle East.

Obama has also caused some alarm among Jewish Democrats by pledging to negotiate with leaders of nations that have taken hostile stances against Israel, such as Syria and Iran.

The growing sympathy of Jewish Democrats toward McCain is epitomized by Lieberman, a self-described independent Democrat from Connecticut.

Lieberman has launched a new bipartisan grassroots group, Citizens for McCain, to attract Democrats and independent voters to the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

Lieberman could become a potent weapon for Republicans seeking to pick off Jewish Democrats. As the Democratic Party’s former vice presidential nominee and a former Democratic candidate for president, Lieberman is assumed to have an expansive list of Jewish Democratic donors from around the country.

“Joe Lieberman supporting McCain has gone a long way with the Democratic Jewish community,” said Stu Sandler, deputy executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition.

“People across the board have had trouble with Obama’s stances and some of the people he’s had around him,” said Sandler, citing McPeak.

Sandler said that McCain met with a group of 60 Jewish leaders, including “a handful” of Clinton supporters, before a conference hosted in Washington last week by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

McCain held a fundraiser with Jewish donors on Friday in Key Biscayne, Fla. Before the main event, McCain met with a roomful of Jewish Democratic donors to discuss Israel and other issues important to them.

As many as two dozen Jewish Democrats who attended the meeting gave money to McCain’s campaign at the fundraiser, which raised about $500,000, said a source close to the event’s organizers.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/jewish-dem-donor-joins-mccain-team-2008-06-10.html

-- June 11, 2008 3:17 PM


Sara wrote:

As I was reading on this topic I read in another piece a paragraph worth noting (with url).
It contains a link to the 2003 interview:

Quote:

Another major issue is Obama’s military adviser, Merrill “Tony” McPeak. In a 2003 interview in the Oregonian, McPeak blamed the Israel-Palestinian conflict on the Jewish community in the US, as well as the war in Iraq. He claimed that Jews and Christian Zionists wanted bases in Iraq to protect Israel, not American interests, which is tantamount to an accusation of disloyalty.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/11/the-hill-mccain-drawing-jewish-democrat-donors/

I didn't know Obama's military adviser (guess which post he would occupy in an Obama Presidency?) blamed the Jews in the US for the War in Iraq, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.. did you? Conspiracy theorists abound.. shades of Hitler.. Jews were always to blame for everything in Hitler's mind, too, weren't they?

Sara.

-- June 11, 2008 3:26 PM


Sara wrote:

OK, two comments given on the last article worth noting.
But I thought it worth bringing the issue to the board's attention as an important and notable point concerning anti-Israel attitudes and their representation within the Obama camp... as it affects Middle East policy.. and of course, the outcome in Iraq, too.

Quote:

More AntiIsrael attitudes in the Obama camp..

There is even more to worry about when it comes to Obama and his real views on Israel. He is a close friend of Rashid Khalidi, a radical Palestinian professor who is now head of the Columbia MiddleEast Studies Department. Obama and Khalidi were good buddies in Chicago and one has to wonder if Khalidi lectured Obama on MiddleEast issues. Then there is the Zbig Brzezinski factor. This old Carter advisor and antiIsrael activist is a foreign policy advisor to Obama. Rob Malley, a real left wing guy, was forced to leave the Obama campaign. Then there is the support Obama receives from Jesse Jackson, Sr. and Jesse Jackson, Jr. These are two ferociously antiIsrael guys. There was also a left wing professor who had to leave the Obama campaign because she mocked Hillary Clinton publicly. She was another antiIsrael activist. Put them all together and you can safely assume that Obama wants to bring a second Jimmy Carter term to the US.

- Larraby on June 11, 2008 at 2:10 PM

And lastly, a note from a resident of Israel:

Expecting strongly liberal progressive democrats who happen to be Jewish to vote McCain is not realistic imho, firstly Israel just isn’t that big an issue or connection for many, secondly they are die hard liberal voters, on every issue not single issue voters.

There’s plenty of votes & funding in the more realistic camp of independents & centrist Jewish democrats to court, I hope that they look at Obama & register the concerns here in Israel. Our cabinet already alluded to today the fact that future US administrations may not be ’so friendly’ to Israel as Bush may have been. The warmth & support of that relationship is critical to Israel’s existence, now on top of that the next 2-3 years will be so critical and frankly dangerous here in the middle east, US foreign policy is crucial we can’t afford ‘experiments of change’.

We really need the Jewish voters support on this issue, it’s not to the far left secular liberal Jews that Israel looks to for support these days in any case, most of their shining lights are outright hostile now and do as much damage to Israel intellectually as the Jihadis do physically.

saus on June 11, 2008 at 2:28 PM

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/11/the-hill-mccain-drawing-jewish-democrat-donors/

-- June 11, 2008 4:04 PM


Steve wrote:

Anyone who only see's doom and gloom as for the oil industry in finding new oil finds should read this as there is new oil being found every day of the week, all those Peak Oil people may not know all the facts, as they cannot have read this site ever
http://www.oilvoice.com/open/discovery.aspx

-- June 11, 2008 11:42 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

The Butterfly Effect and the Dinar

What are the odds of the Dinar being RV'd at a high rate, giving holders of the Iraqi Dinar, a very high rate of return on their investment? I mean that, in a general way. Is it possible to think mathematically, about this, without using numbers?

Many people would say the Dinar is a very risky investment. And of course, the payout in any investment is, mathematically, inversely correlated with the risk involved. In other words, very risky investments, when they pay out, tend to pay out at a very high rate of return. Investors demand to be rewarded at a high rate, if they are taking a large risk, of losing their initial investment.

And, where the risk is low, or perceived to be low, then the payout on any given investment, tends to be usually low, as well. In a low risk investment, supposedly, the money is safe, and knowledgeable investors assess risk, and decide that a particular investment is deemed to be low risk, and the payout, if it comes, is accordingly low.

All this is pretty basic, to any investment.

Is the Dinar a high risk investment? I don't think so, and I'll explain why, in a minute, by way of Chaos Theory, and what is known as The Butterfly Effect.

MIT meteorologist Edward Lorenz, a few years back, came up with, a scientific concept, called The Butterfly Effect. It is a scientific concept that says that small events can have large, widespread consequences. The name stems from Lorenz's suggestion that a massive storm might have it's roots in the faraway flapping of a tiny butterfly's wings.

Translated into popular culture, the butterfly effect has become a metaphor for the existence of seemingly insignificant moments that alter history, and shape destinies. Though unrecognized at first, they create threads of cause and effect that appear obvious in retrospect, changing the course of a human life, or rippling through the global economy.

In the 1990 movie, "Havana", Robert Redford plays a mathematically gifted gambler. He tells his co-star, "A butterfly can flutter it's wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean. They can even calculate the odds."

Is this true? Can they "calculate the odds"? Well, no. This movie got it backwards. The larger meaning of the Butterfly Effect is not that we can easily track back such connections, but that we can't.

To claim a butterfly's wings can cause a storm, is to raise a question: How can we say any one thing definitely caused a storm, if it could be something as slight as a butterfly's wings? How do we definitely trace the cause and effect, in this situation, when there are billions of potential variables? While it's true that a butterfly flapping it's wings just might be the cause of the hurricane, how do we know it is not one of any one of billions of things that happen on the planet? How do we sort all this out, in terms of cause and effect?

Now, Lorenz's mathematical work would say there is no easy answer to this question. The public, of course, is not satisfied with this vague answer. The public looks at science, in such a way, that they expect scientists to give precise answers about the world, and how it works. Lorenz's theory says that is not really possible, for much of the world exists in a state of uncertainty.

Which means you never really can tell exactly what will happen, in any given system. The butterfly effect arose, as a simple insight extracted from Lorenz's work, dealing with studying probabilities, of events occuring, and changes in weather patterns, based on small changes. He was trying to understand the weather. So he programmed computer models, of weather system, using numbers to represent certain atmostpheric variables, to try to predict the weather. Then, he very slightly altered those variables. He found that extremely slight alterations of variables, often brought large and ultimately unpredictabl changes, within the system.

Thus, the Butterfly Effect.

All of this poses a practical, and a philosophical problem. On a practical level, it meant there was always going to be a certain level of complete unpredictability, in weather forecasting. And the data showed it was mathematically impossible to isolate specific causes of later events.

The mathematical reason this was happening was that within nature, there were innumerable connections, and while it was true that a butterfly's wings flapping MIGHT cause a hurricane, it also just might Prevent one. The truth was, we could never know. There were just too many variables happening at the same time, and it was impossible to mathematically isolate exactly what was causing what. Also, the very fact that we were measuring something, mathematically changed things enough, that we literally could never know how a system would have reacted, had we never tried to measure it in the first place.

So, the main lesson out of this, is exactly the opposite of what Robert Redford tried to say: Complex systems, with so many variables, are very hard to calculate with certainty, in terms of following cause and effect of specific single variables and outcomes. There are too many butterflys out there. And when small imprecisions matter greatly, the world is radically unpredictable, at it's core.

All this puts strict limits on certainty, strict limits on what we can know with absolute certainty. All this, is the foundation of what is known as Chaos Theory, which dispels the notion of a predictable universe that many physicists like Sir Isaac Newton believed in. All of this means everyone should always be skeptical of anyone who proclaims something about a complex system, with too much certainty. The truth is, we can never exactly know what will happen, in the future, no matter how much we know about a complex system.

All of this relates to trying to figuring out the odds of my investment in the Dinar, turning out well.

In Iraq, will things turn out well? Well enough that the Dinar will be revalued, in a very positive way, like many of us expect? Well, first of all, it's obvious, to any honest person, who believes in the inherent unpredictability of Chaos Theory that no one absolutely knows for sure.

The reason for this is obvious: The war in Iraq is a very complex system, with an unimaginable number of variables affecting the outcome, much like studying, or trying to predict the weather. It fits into Chaos Theory, which means it is impossible to know exactly how it will turn out. It is impossible to know if a butterfly flapping it's wings in Equador will cause the war to be won, or to be lost.

But the thing is, wars are won, or lost. Iraq will either work out, in the long run, it's economy will either be up and running, investment will pour in, with enough stability to ensure a high RV, or it won't. If a series of things go wrong, and a civil war ensues, and America leaves, and the region descends into chaos, our investments would very likely turn out to be worth only the paper they are printed on. While it is impossible to predict the outcome, it is reasonable to say it will either work, with a successful RV, or it won't. So, in that general sense, there are really only 2 possible outcomes in Iraq. Either it works out, or it doesn't.

Since it is a complex system, it is, of course, mathematically impossible to predict which of these two outcomes will happen, but surely one of the two will happen.

I believe that means the chances of a successful RV and happy outcome are much higher than people realize. I'd say the odds are at least 50-50, at this point, and probably a lot higher. Either this will work, or it won't. Now, it's more than possible to construct scenarios, under which this thing will work, and it is also more than possible to construct scenarios, under which this thing will work. It's impossible, of course, to know which of the two outcomes will happen, but as I said previously, one of the two will happen, which means a greater than 50% chance it will work out.

Now, Lorenz, as I said, derived his mathematical theories from studying complex weather systems. And Lorenz was right, of course, that complex weather systems can never attain absolute certainty, in terms of predictability, even with knowledge of all variables. But the common sense thing is, people predict the weather all the time. Last I checked, meteorologists usually are fairly accurate in predicting weather. Weather forecasts for rain, sleet or snow, are not always accurate, but the thing is, they are USUALLY accurate.

Which is to say, if you know enough about a complex system, while it is impossible to say with absolute certainty, how things will turn out, it is definitely NOT IMPOSSIBLE to predict, with a fair degree of certainty, how things will turn out.

This means general probability predictions are reasonable. In other words, if you know enough about a complex thing, while it is impossible to absolutely predict an outcome, it is perfectly reasonable to make a high percentage correct guess, as to the outcome, of a complex system.

With this in mind, looking at wars, in general, wars are either won, or lost. Right now, this one is leaning toward the win column, for America. And looking back in American history, it's fair to say, based on past performances, America usually wins it's wars. America doesn't lose a lot of wars, does it?

Which all sounds a lot like predicting the weather, if you know enough, doesn't it? If you know enough about the weather, you can never can say, for certain, if it will rain tomorrow, but you can say, with about 80% probability, that it will rain tomorrow. Likewise, if a person knows enough about the war in Iraq, with the pending large positive RV which would happen, in a successful outcome of that war concluded, then, if a person knew enough about this, they could say with a fairly large degree of positive probability, that the outcome in Iraq would be victory, and a large RV. Well, I'll go out on a limb, and say, well I obviously don't know everything that is going on that could affect the outcome, I think I know enough to say that I feel confident that there will be a positive outcome. I'd further make an educated guess, and say, I would predict, with about 80% certainty, that the outcome will be positive.

Why don't other people see this? It all comes down to how people predict danger and risk. Humans are hardwired to assess immediate physical threats, to their personal well being and health, and those of their loved ones. This means, when they hear about war, and see images of it, on television, that they have a very visceral, emotional reaction to it. It represents danger. Danger means risk. Risk means stay away, this will never work.

And, in this way, the value of the Iraq fell to extremely low levels. Fear brought the Dinar down, in value.

Yet, I don't think people who think, in this way, with their emotions, and little knowledge, have much of a chance to realistically assess the extent of the danger, or risk. So their assessment of the risk of this investment is based on emotion, which may or may not turn out to be true. While emotion is one way people understand the world, and is invaluable, it is not a perfect way to assess market risks of complex investments. In fact, it's a very poor way to assess something so abstract and complex as this war and Dinar investment. Emotions are very superior ways of assessing many situations, and dangers, but complex situations like wars, and their risk assessments, are best assessed by other methods. Since this investment is being judged very largely on emotion, and little insight, most of the assessments of this being a high risk investment, may be completely distorted.

In assessing the war, the media and the Democratic Party naturally fell into the pessimistic, fear-driven assessment of things. How could this work, was what they were saying. But they may have been dead wrong.

My assessment is, of course, quite counter-intuitive, but to the best of my knowledge, true. I guess we'll find out.

If, in the near future, things turn out well, then, instead of fear, optimism and hope will nudge in, and then greed and optimism will crowd out fear, as people realize there is an opportunity of a lifetime here, as Iraq blooms like a flower in the desert.

Then, the value of the Iraqi Dinar will soar, and I will cash in. When I see hope turn into greed, and see the greed in people's eyes, and hear it in their voices, I will know it is time to sell.

And that is my assessment of this investment, using mathemcatical concepts, without using numbers and equations, coupled with basic logic.

And that's how I see it. If this all makes no sense, or sounds like I'm one toke over the line, Carole, just for the record, I was entirely chemical free as I wrote this, and had a good time, of it. It was quite fun. Which, as I have said before, is a large part of why I am here. And, if I never make a dime on this, I've had a good time.

Here's hoping.

-- June 11, 2008 11:46 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Steve, thanks for that insight.

-- June 11, 2008 11:47 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim, Sara, all....
Sad , but true, upper middle class to rich Jews is this country have little to no regard to their homeland, Israel. They do not unite as Jews, they unite as liberals.over 70% of ACLU activists are Jews.

A different story from the Messanic Jewish communities around the world, however, they are comparatively few in number.

Because of repeated wickedness, idolatry and disobedience, as recorded in the Old Testament, God invoked a curse of blindness. I think this explains their irrational detachment from their homeland; it's cause, future, and countrymen.

And so the profile of the "Barbra Striesands" and the likes of her.......

Carole

-- June 12, 2008 12:14 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Now I remember why you were my most favorite comic on the planet.

I'll give $100 to anyone that can answer the following questions correctly......

Tim's dissertation said absolutely nothing. True or False?

Tim knows he said absolutely nothing. True or False?

Tim is having fun scrambling logic. True or False?

:) :) :)


Carole

-- June 12, 2008 12:31 AM


Carole wrote:

ANYONE HEARD FROM ROGER???

-- June 12, 2008 12:34 AM


Jerry Seinfeld wrote:

Tim, your stealing my act....My show was all about nothing.....so's your so-called theory.

-- June 12, 2008 1:36 AM


cornishboy wrote:

Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister: the central bank would reduce the hardline policies

BAGHDAD - Iraq votes 13 / 05 / 2008 at 03:46:14


The economists are Iraqis, including an economic advisor to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, on Monday, the Central Bank to abandon its adoption of tight monetary policies, because of their negative impact on the national economy., by changing the value of the real exchange rate of dinar and causing a deficit in the general budget.

He said Abdul-Hussein Al-Anbuge, economic advisor to the Prime Minister, before the specialized symposium held in Baghdad on Monday, under the banner of (economic and financial reform and reconstruction in Iraq), that "actions at the Central Bank of hardline Iraqi currency to reduce the mass and raising the rate of disbursement, led to results Damaging the Iraqi economy a whole. "

The Al-Anbuge, during his research entitled (the effects of tight monetary policy ... How long?) In the symposium, that "that the Central Bank of attempts to raise the value of the dinar, changed the value in the market, which led to a decline in the value of resources Oil resident dinars. "

He added that "reflected negatively on increasing the rate of disability, in addition to the resurgence of the economy rental, because the high value of the dinar led to a dependence on imported more industries, which seem cheap imported goods for the Iraqi consumer."

The economic expert, "Despite high oil prices, but the truth is that the economic cycle has become ends in outside diameter," considering that the beneficiary of the rising Iraqi currency "are the ones who remit their profits at home abroad, and not vice versa."

He said Al-Anbuge that monetary policy "did not address the phenomenon of inflation, as demonstrated by the rise of imported goods whose prices have increased because of higher oil prices globally," stressing the importance of monetary policy to be "neutral if were not able to cope with fiscal policy, reduce the gap with inconsistencies Between them. "

Rehn called Ahmed, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, economists Iraqis to "re-examine the causes of inflation," considering increasing government spending, "one of its main causes, because the expansion of spending is not offset by an increase in production."

Rehn said "For example: How Iraq needs of cement, and how he can produce."

He called on Deputy Governor of Central Bank not to be "load bank unit responsible for what is happening in the Iraqi economy," pointing out that the central lift interest rates to control the volume of cash "that led to bank deposits comes to it, without lending to the private sector."

He pointed out that Rehn (93%) of deposits in the Central Bank "comes from a bank: the Rafidain and Rasheed Gumian", he wondered, "Why does not the government directed banks to lend, rather than deposit the funds in the Central Bank to maximize profits ..?."

A financial expert, Majid image on this last speech by saying that he "does not desired results of the exchange rate to float the dollar, since that will ensure that interest rates will rise to more than the day."

The image that everyone "focus on how to solve immediate problems, namely how to develop the financial process, pressure on the state in order of preference the production process on trade, and finding solutions to reduce unemployment."

But the president of the Economics Department at Mustansiriyah University, Ahmed Al Wazzan expressed his optimism about the economic situation, and said that "groping for the first time in Iraq, the features of the building fiscal and monetary policy after it was everything but the state only."

Wazzan said that the problem of the Iraqi economy "that is still held OWN government control over all the joints," adding that "the time of parental care has ended, and it is time for action, according to indications of the market."

The punitive Hamid, Chairman of the Businessmen Association, that Iraq "stands in front of the economic situation is difficult and very delicate, but it has the ingredients necessary to fill an important position globally."

He agreed with the view of the punitive-Wazzan, the importance of the emergence of the economy "parental care," but he believed that the best solution to the current Iraq situation is "making a mix of cooperation between public and private sectors, and this will not be through investment laws, but also to Improving infrastructure, focusing on the development of human skills and development and introduction of modern technology at work. "

http://translate.google.com/translat...language_tools

-- June 12, 2008 10:41 AM


cornishboy wrote:

Gulf countries to miss 2010 deadline for single currency

DUBAI • Gulf Arab oil exporters will miss a long-trumpeted 2010 target to issue a single currency by up to five years, raising the spectre that inflation will ravage their economies unless they revalue their dollar pegs before then.

Policymakers from Saudi Arabia and four of its neighbours preparing for monetary union refuse to admit defeat on the deadline because they want to save face and avoid embarrassment.

They have renewed efforts since April to put forward a united front on the project and made headway on signing key initial deals, hoping to deter currency bets that one or more states could follow Kuwait’s lead and sever their dollar pegs.

But behind the smokescreen, little progress has actually been achieved toward getting a European-style single currency into circulation in the world’s biggest oil-exporting region by a 2010 deadline set years ago.

“There are few expectations - if any – that the 2010 deadline will actually be met in full but there is time for the Gulf to show that currency union is at the top of their agenda,” said Simon Williams, regional economist at HSBC.
“What we are looking for is evidence that the renewed enthusiasm for the single currency project isn’t just talk, but is being backed up by concrete and meaningful action.”

The longer it takes to issue common notes and coins, the greater the risk Gulf states will once again tip the balance in favour of unilateral currency reform as inflation spirals to record peaks, spurred partly by pegs to the ailing greenback.

At an extraordinary meeting on Monday, central bank governors from all Gulf states except Oman approved a draft of the monetary union deal and a set of rules governing a monetary council that will form the first leg of a common central bank.

But, not surprisingly, they skirted the key question about when a Gulf currency will be circulated.

Qatar’s central bank governor told Reuters, “we are not talking about the currency” when referring to the 2010 deadline, and refused to be drawn into further detail.

Experts have long dismissed the 2010 deadline as unreachable.
But knowing how long it will take to introduce the currency is crucial to understanding the raging debate about Gulf dollar pegs that bind the US allies politically, diplomatically and economically to Washington.

Gulf states had agreed to keep their pegs intact until achieving the single currency – a promise that became problematic as the dollar tumbled to record troughs against the euro and a basket of major currencies this year and last.

The pegs have forced booming Gulf states to slash interest rates in tandem with the US Federal Reserve and driven up their import costs, spurring inflation.

Against this backdrop, the currency project was sent off the rails twice after Oman decided in 2006 not to join and Kuwait broke ranks with its neighbours by dropping its dollar peg in May 2007 partly to fight imported inflation.

Expediting the single currency could prevent other Gulf states, namely Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, from following Kuwait’s lead as they contend with the region’s fastest rates of inflation.

Qatar’s prime minister, who said this week he would not revalue the riyal or tinker with the dollar peg in the medium term, made a plea in February for Gulf states to expedite the single currency, and float it “like the Japanese yen”.

But while Gulf rulers probably will sign a final monetary union agreement in November, circulating the currency will take at least three years longer in a best-case scenario understood to have been presented to central bankers this week.
Hammering out the technical details of the currency union – including agreeing on payment settlement systems, banking supervision regulations and exchange rate policy – will delay the currency’s issuance to as far as 2015.
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Dis...0 6125144.xml

-- June 12, 2008 11:08 AM


Sara wrote:

Good to see them working ahead on the issues of the day..

==

Expected meeting to solve political problems
Baghdad, June. 11, P. 1

Baghdad will witness new round of talks among political leaders to solve outstanding issues.

Most important issues that would be discussed by national security and executive councils are oil law, constitutional amendments and elections law as well as the security agreement with US.

MP Mhmood Othman said that Kurdistan region president, Masoud Barzani, will visit Baghdad to discuss many issues simultaneously with the region PM, Nejervan Barzani's visit to the capital and holding meetings with PM Noori Maliki and other senior officials to end some outstanding issues that discussed at the previous visit, particularly the oil law

http://www.alsabaah.com/paper.php?source=akbar&mlf=interpage&sid=63975

-- June 12, 2008 11:16 AM


mattuk wrote:


BBC uncovers lost Iraq billions
By Jane Corbin
BBC News

A BBC investigation estimates that around $23bn (£11.75bn) may have been lost, stolen or just not properly accounted for in Iraq.
he BBC's Panorama programme has used US and Iraqi government sources to research how much some private contractors have profited from the conflict and rebuilding.
A US gagging order is preventing discussion of the allegations.
The order applies to 70 court cases against some of the top US companies.

War profiteering

While Presdient George W Bush remains in the White House, it is unlikely the gagging orders will be lifted.
To date, no major US contractor faces trial for fraud or mismanagement in Iraq.
The president's Democratic opponents are keeping up the pressure over war profiteering in Iraq.
Henry Waxman, who chairs the House committee on oversight and government reform, said: "The money that's gone into waste, fraud and abuse under these contracts is just so outrageous, it's egregious.
"It may well turn out to be the largest war profiteering in history."

In the run-up to the invasion, one of the most senior officials in charge of procurement in the Pentagon objected to a contract potentially worth $7bn that was given to Halliburton, a Texan company which used to be run by Dick Cheney before he became vice-president.
Unusually only Halliburton got to bid - and won.

Missing billions

The search for the missing billions also led the programme to a house in Acton in west London where Hazem Shalaan lived until he was appointed to the new Iraqi government as minister of defence in 2004.

Judge Radhi al Radhi: "I believe these people are criminals."
He and his associates siphoned an estimated $1.2bn out of the ministry. They bought old military equipment from Poland but claimed for top-class weapons.
Meanwhile they diverted money into their own accounts.
Judge Radhi al-Radhi of Iraq's Commission for Public Integrity investigated.
He said: "I believe these people are criminals.
"They failed to rebuild the Ministry of Defence, and as a result the violence and the bloodshed went on and on - the murder of Iraqis and foreigners continues and they bear responsibility."
Mr Shalaan was sentenced to two jail terms but he fled the country.
He said he was innocent and that it was all a plot against him by pro-Iranian MPs in the government.
There is an Interpol arrest warrant out for him but he is on the run - using a private jet to move around the globe.
He stills owns commercial properties in the Marble Arch area of London.

-- June 12, 2008 11:56 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraqi athletes face Olympic ban

By Jim Muir
BBC News, Baghdad

Seven Iraqi athletes from five different sports have qualified for the Olympics
As if Iraq did not have enough troubles, it now faces a ban on its athletes taking part in the Beijing Olympics.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has imposed a provisional suspension on Iraq, accusing its government of political interference in the country's sporting affairs.

At the boathouse gymnasium on the banks of the Tigris in central Baghdad, Haider Nawzad and his rowing partner Hamza Hussein are doing their stretching exercises before taking their boat out on the river for a two-hour training session.

They are among just seven Iraqi athletes, from five different sports, who are qualified to take part in the Beijing Olympics.

Haider Nawzad, rower
"It's not easy training here, because the river moves fast, and there are boats crossing all the time," says Mr Haider.

In addition to the two rowers, there are two sprinters, one archer, one weightlifter, and one judo competitor.

Mr Haider came back from Sweden to join Mr Hamza in intensive training for the games.

"We also hear bombs going off, sometimes quite close, and that doesn't help either," he says.

If the government doesn't rescind its decisions after the Lausanne meeting, there will be a complete and comprehensive suspension of all Iraqi sports at all levels
Hussein al-Ameedi, Iraqi Olympic Committee

But neither the rowers nor the other athletes know if they are going to be able to go to Beijing.

Their fate hinges on the outcome of a meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland, yet to be arranged, at which the IOC will explain to an Iraqi government delegation how the Olympic movement works and why the Baghdad authorities must reverse their decision to take control of the Iraqi Olympic Committee.

The government stepped in last month, dismissed the committee, and set up a transitional body to run its affairs, headed by the minister for sport.

That was completely out of line with the Olympic charter, under which national committees are elected by sports federations in the country concerned.

Committee members abducted

The committee which the government dismissed was elected in 2004, in line with the Olympic movement's regulations.

Its chairman, Ahmad al-Samarra'i, and several other members were abducted by gunmen while attending a meeting in central Baghdad in July 2006.

They have not been seen since.

The government said it took the move because the committee was corrupt and had not been functioning properly.

"The decisions taken by the government were not well studied or prepared," said Hussein al-Ameedi, Secretary-General of the dismissed Iraqi Olympic Committee.

"They did not understand the Olympic charter and the rules of the IOC. The only solution is to return to the Olympic charter and the right way of doing things.

"If the government doesn't rescind its decisions after the Lausanne meeting, there will be a complete and comprehensive suspension of all Iraqi sports at all levels.

"I can't believe any national government, or any true Iraqi, could want to see that happen."

The dispute has left the Iraqi athletes in limbo.

There is not much they can do, except wait, hope, and keep up their training.

"Of course we're angry," says Haider Nawzad the oarsman.

"We are training and preparing ourselves, and then suddenly the government takes a decision that's so bad for us."

But he and the others will continue training, in the hope that a solution will be found and they can live their dream of competing in the Beijing games.

-- June 12, 2008 12:34 PM


Sara wrote:

Since we have been discussing oil recently, I thought this would fit into the discussion. America gets what the people elect into office - both for President and Congress. Don't like the high price of gas? You know where to put the blame...

===

House Subcommittee Rejects Plan to Open U.S. Waters to More Oil Exploration
Wednesday, June 11, 2008

WASHINGTON — A House subcommittee on Wednesday rejected a Republican-led effort to open up more U.S. coastal waters to oil exploration.

Rep. John Peterson, R-Pa., spearheaded the effort. His proposal would open up U.S. waters between 50 and 200 miles off shore for drilling. The first 50 miles off shore would be left alone.

But the plan failed Wednesday on a 9-6, party-line vote in a House appropriations subcommittee, which was considering the proposal as part of an Interior Department spending package.

With record oil prices and gas prices projected to hover around the $4 mark for the rest of the summer, Republicans have ratcheted up their efforts to open up oil exploration along U.S. coastline. But the long-sought change has so far been unsuccessful.

Most offshore oil production and exploration has been banned since a federal law passed in 1981.

"We are kidding ourselves if we think we can drill our way out of these problems," House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis., said during the bill mark-up session.

For his part, Peterson said: "There is no valid reason for Congress to keep the country from energy resources it needs."

According to Peterson's office, the U.S. Minerals Management Service estimates that 86 billion barrels of oil and 420 trillion cubic feet of natural gas can be found along the U.S. outer continental shelf, the area affected by the ban.

"Tapping America's huge reserve of deep ocean energy helps us fight terrorism and increases our domestic energy supply, which will help put downward pressure on gasoline prices," Greg Schnacke, President of Americans for American Energy, said in a news release, adding: "With Americans suffering at the gas pump and with higher energy bills, it's a no-brainer that the OCS should be developed."

Democrats held their own series of events on Capitol Hill Wednesday to focus attention on global warming and energy independence, but drilling is not on the agenda. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Tuesday ongoing calls for more drilling "is the Johnny One-Note of the Republican Party."

Discussing rising gasoline prices, Obama said: "I think that I would have preferred a gradual adjustment. The fact that this is such a shock to American pocketbooks is not a good thing.

Obama also said that "if we take some steps right now to help people make the adjustment, first of all by putting more money into their pockets, but also by encouraging the market to adapt to these new circumstances more quickly, particularly U.S. automakers, then I think ultimately, we can come out of this stronger and have a more efficient energy policy than we do right now.

McConnell, honing in on Obama's referral to "gradual" price increases, said Obama's remarks are evidence that Obama believes "rising gas prices aren't the problem. The problem, he suggested, is that they've gone up too fast. He said he would prefer a gradual adjustment."

He continued: "Whether it's shutting down domestic exploration in large areas both onshore and offshore, instituting a moratorium on oil shale development, increasing the gas tax, or refusing to pursue coal to liquids, Democrats long ago implemented a 'gradual adjustment' on gas prices that's reflected today in the $4.05 Americans are paying for a gallon of gas."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,365627,00.html

-- June 12, 2008 4:33 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

I am in New York this week on business, so not posting much this week. I am still bullish on the Iraq Dinar.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 12, 2008 6:00 PM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, Rob N.
Have a good trip.
Glad to hear you remain bullish on the Dinar.

Sara.

-- June 12, 2008 8:41 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts (and board);

I don't think your dissertation said nothing, and I found it as interesting as Chaos Theory or Quantum Mechanics, which is the study of seemingly uncertain things:

QUOTE: "Complex systems, with so many variables, are very hard to calculate with certainty, in terms of following cause and effect of specific single variables and outcomes. The truth is, we can never exactly know what will happen, in the future, no matter how much we know about a complex system."

True, we cannot know with ABSOLUTE certainty, but as you said, you can see the PROBABILITY of things going a certain way (rain tomorrow, the RV sometime soon). But I do have to point out that God has all variables under His hand and moves them so that His will is accomplished and worked out in every circumstance. All we need to know is.. is this His will? If it is, in time, it will work out as He has said it will.

For instance, I have said that the Lord was gracious enough to me to tell me (a long time ago before the candidates were in place, when everyone was vying for frontrunner to the nomination of their party) that He was putting a Democrat into the Whitehouse but not Hillary or Obama. When they became the only ones running on the ticket, that puzzled me. But then I looked into McCain and found that you could call him a small "D" democrat.. or a small "R" republican. He is very middle of the road, in fact. So that Kerry actually asked him to be his running mate for President - he would have run then for the position of Vice President on the Democrat ticket. This would make him qualified to be called a Democrat. So I then asked if what the Lord meant was that McCain would be President, and He said yes.

So, from my faith perspective, ALL those variables have been taken into account within the complex system of how the future will work, and God has said it will work out that McCain is President. I don't know exactly HOW that will happen and I have speculated that it may be that Israel may feel they have no choice but to go to war against Iran and the US may be dragged into it unwillingly. This would change the Presidential race dramatically and I believe in McCain's favor. I believe this scenerio will play out in the future sometime. But I am not sure it will be in time to affect the outcome of the election. But it may. Only God knows. :) :) :) But however the circumstances are moved by God to be - the one He puts in the Whitehouse is going to be McCain. There can be no stopping God's will. Because there is no Chaos for God, but He knows every variable and outcome (being Omniscient - all knowing), He knows with absolute certainty what WILL happen in the future.

I have been encouraged somewhat to speak by the times I have been told things in the past which have/are coming to pass, like when the Lord told me that President Bush would never be impeached and that there would be no repeat of 911 on US soil while President Bush holds the Presidency. And that God will not allow Obama to be assassinated in his run up to the election. These will be, not because I said it, of course, but because I am relying on the word of God to me which cannot be wrong. I have been very careful only to say those things I feel God wished me to say and only those I was certain were from Him. I am an imperfect human, relying on a gift over which I have no control. Sometimes God will tell me one thing, and not elaborate. Such as when He said He would put a democrat in the Presidency, but not Hillary or Obama. He leaves me to puzzle things out, often.

As for the Dinar.. God led me into this and assures me that it IS His will this currency Revalue. So that is what I hold to when others think the Dinar will not be worth more. But I did appreciate your dissertation here on probability and the odds being in our favor now. They are now visibly in our favor toward a stable Iraq and RV, as God has moved the circumstances to be what He wills. It didn't look like it there for a while, but God is over the Big Picture and it always works out the way of His will.

One more illustration which has encouraged me and I will give it a rest. I once held some stock which was worth about fifteen dollars. The Lord told me it would sell at 33.00, which is more than double. When I tried to put in the order online, it would not do so, so I phoned the stock brokerage place I had the account with and asked them to put in a sell order on the stock for 33.00. The man taking the order laughed at me. He literally laughed out loud over the phone. When he had recovered himself (and he knew I was serious), he asked me when I wished to make it expire and I told him to leave it open and just let it sell whenever it reached that mark. A few months later the stock split and then rose to the amount I had said and it sold automatically at that amount. It even went quite a lot higher than the amount I had given. (I wish it had made me millions, but no, it wasn't much stock - just enough to help me learn to trust God's leading.) I also did not care one single bit that it had sold and I had made that money, because it sold on the day my Mother died very suddenly and unexpectedly. God used the event to explain to my heart that He was over every circumstance, and knew it ahead of time. It meant a lot to me - not the money, the lesson - in my grief. It helped me to trust God with her soul, and comforted me in that loss. It also helped me to trust God about the future when He leads me concerning it. God can and quite often does use money for bigger purposes than just a monetary windfall.

Sara.

-- June 12, 2008 11:15 PM


Steve wrote:


For an insight of Iraq and the Iraqi people have a read on this site

http://www.geocities.com/iraqinfo/

Steve.

-- June 12, 2008 11:37 PM


tim bitts wrote:

thanks, sara

-- June 13, 2008 6:47 AM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, tim. :)

In reality, Iraqis are worried Obama will get in and pull out precipitously, leaving them in the lurch while not yet ready to defend their nation on their own. They are, therefore, unwilling to make the step of making a permanent agreement on US forces until they know who is in the Whitehouse. Whatever excuses they make now are only to serve that end, IMO. This is why the American side (including the President) assessed correctly that the situation is very negotiable and came out recently as saying that they could not see any reason the Iraqis would not ratify an equitable agreement, but Iraq is not willing to take that step. I think the deal is fine.. it is the politics of the future that has them skittish on signing anything now.

===
Iraq lawmakers reject draft pact
By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA | Associated Press Writer
June 12, 2008

BAGHDAD - New U.S. proposals have failed to overcome Iraqi opposition to a proposed security pact, two lawmakers said Thursday, and a senior government official expressed doubt an agreement could be reached before the U.S. presidential election in November.

The security agreement would provide a legal basis for the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq after the U.N. mandate expires at the end of this year. Failure to strike a deal would leave the future of the American military presence here to the next administration.

Iman al-Asadi, a Shiite member of the parliamentary committee on legal affairs, said the committee had recommended to the negotiators that they reject the latest draft, the fourth since the talks began last March.

U.S. officials have refused to release details of the talks while they are still under way but have expressed their respect for Iraqi sovereignty.

The top State Department adviser on Iraq, David Satterfield, told reporters this week that the two sides would meet a July target date to finish the agreement, which must be ratified by the Iraqi parliament.

President Bush told reporters this week in Germany that he was also confident that a deal would be reached.

But a senior Iraqi official told The Associated Press that the chance of finalizing an agreement before the U.S. presidential election was "slim," although he added that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government was interested in a deal if it served Iraqi interests.

Several Iraqi lawmakers said a major obstacle was the U.S. demand for immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts for all American personnel, including both troops and civilian contractors.

Al-Asadi said the latest U.S. proposals limited immunity to American military personnel but that was not enough.

"What happens to our dignity? What happens to our sovereignty? We want immunity to be lifted," she said.

She also said the Americans had softened their demand for control of a considerable part of Iraq's airspace but that the Iraqis insisted on full control.

"If the U.S. controls the air, the ground and the sea, this means no sovereignty," she said.

Al-Asadi refused to release further details or talk about how many bases the United States wanted access to under the agreement. She said the Americans were now avoiding talk of numbers of bases but were asking for an "American presence" until Iraqi security forces were deemed ready to take over from U.S.-led forces.

She said the agreement included no timetable for drawing down American forces and "this is a scandal."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-iraq,0,219744.story

Here, Al-Asadi is positioning Iraq to be pliant and helpful IF the next Administration is Obama. After all, a timetable for withdrawl is his platform and McCain's is not pulling out until the commanders on the ground recommend doing so. One is based on political expediency, the other on military realities. Here, Iraq is worried it will be the political and not the military opinion which could prevail against their national interest. And they are positioning themselves to be in the best position possible in that scenerio.

The objections to this SOFA agreement are likely easily overcome. It is simply that the outcome of the US election causes too much uncertainty for Iraq to feel comfortable setting the direction for the country now. This way, they are leaving themselves open to being able to reach an agreement with the new Administration and hopefully looking more accomodating in case the reality moves against them and their national interest. I read this article as indicating a "let's wait to see what happens with the US elections" mentality when this article states, "a senior government official expressed doubt an agreement could be reached before the U.S. presidential election in November" AND, "a senior Iraqi official told The Associated Press that the chance of finalizing an agreement before the U.S. presidential election was "slim."" Iraqis are by these and other statements indicating to the Obama camp that they will be pliant and helpful to them should they manage to get into power. Instead of standing firm on what is good for the country.. they are positioning themselves politically for the best position to survive.

How can any negotiation process compete with the survival instinct of man?

Sara.

-- June 13, 2008 8:56 AM


Sara wrote:

Steve;

Your site link I looked at quoted prominently on the page the false statistic of the Soros report saying, "War has wiped out about 655,000 Iraqis or more then 500 people a day since the US-led invasion. Oct. 11, 2006 - CNN"

Do you see 500 people a day being "wiped out" as realistic? It has been proven statistically incorrect. Also, when I went to the page about who created this website it says in the About section,
QUOTE:

"I have seen and read much about the devastating effects of the Iran-Iraq and Persian Gulf wars, the cruelty of the Iraqi regime, and of the misery of the sanctioned Iraqi people. I grew up far from that, in the safety and security of the United States. This position of comfort and safety coexisted with the feeling of guilt and frustration in being powerless to contribute to the struggle of the Iraqi people. Aside from providing as complete an online Iraqi source as possible, (this site) is also intended to raise awareness about the oppression of the Iraqi people.. activism for peace with justice for Iraq is alive and well." (end quote)

Recognising the incredible peacenik bias against the Iraqi government and their belief the Iraqis are all "oppressed" and not winning their freedom from oppression.. makes me look at the biased articles on that site in a different light. I don't believe they are "news" but in reality only their peacenik opinions. The top news/featured editorial items featured include the titles, "Iraq War: The Coming Disaster", "US to Nuke Iraq" and "War Brought Misery to Iraqi Town." There is no acknowledgement of the positive realities on the ground now, just as Obama conveniently overlooks them in his campaign. I find these viewpoints of the far left peaceniks to be based NOT on the realities of the Iraqi people winning their freedom against the terrorists or today's current events. I see them as stuck in a past mentality about Iraq that is no longer accurate nor up to date with the reality on the ground and so they are in a fantasy of their own making - one they perpetuate in order to make themselves into the crusaders for good against a perceived enemy which does not in fact exist (the wicked, oppressive, cruel Iraqi government and the US government who might "nuke" Iraq, etc).

If you find any sites with accurate and up to date news items on them in the future, do let me know. But for now, I see no reason to ever return to that site. Perhaps if you find such misleading information palatable, I might say I now understand your views on black people in the US. Obviously, we visit different sites for our information about the world and to inform our view of it.

Sara.

-- June 13, 2008 9:36 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq says talks with US on pact reach "dead end"
Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:09am BST

By Waleed Ibrahim

AMMAN, June 13 (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Friday talks with the United States on a new long-term security pact had reached a "dead end" because of U.S. demands that infringed Iraq's sovereignty.

"We have reached a dead end, because when we started the talks, we found that the U.S. demands hugely infringe on the sovereignty of Iraq, and this we can never accept," Maliki told journalists during a visit to neighbouring Jordan.

The United States and Iraq are negotiating a new agreement to provide a legal basis for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq after Dec. 31, when their United Nations mandate expires.

They are also negotiating a strategic framework agreement on long-term political, diplomatic, economic, security and cultural ties between the two countries.

In his first detailed comments on the talks, which are taking place behind closed doors, Maliki said Iraq objected to Washington's insistence on giving its troops immunity from prosecution in Iraq and freedom to conduct operations independent of Iraqi control.

"We can't extend the U.S. forces permission to arrest Iraqis or to undertake the responsibility of fighting terrorism in an independent way, or to keep Iraqi skies and waters open for themselves whenever they want," he said.

"One of the important issues that the U.S. is asking for is immunity for its soldiers and those contracting with it. We reject this totally."

Responding to Maliki's comments, a U.S. embassy spokesman in Baghdad said: "Talks are ongoing. We respect Iraq's sovereignty and that's the basis of the negotiations. We are still in dialogue with the Iraqis on this."

U.S. President George W. Bush said on Wednesday he was confident of reaching an agreement with Iraq. U.S. officials say they hope to reach a deal by July, but Iraqi officials have been more cautious and have suggested that date may be missed.

-- June 13, 2008 10:13 AM


Sara wrote:

You know.. this article should say "US presence is IRAN'S main problem".. as that is the reality, not that it is the Iraqi's main problem.

===

US presence is Iraq's main problem: Iranian leader
Reuters | Fredrik Dahl
10/06/2008

Iran's supreme leader told visiting Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki today the presence of US forces in Iraq was the biggest obstacle to its development as a united country.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hit out at the "occupiers" in Iraq at a time when Baghdad is negotiating with the US on a new agreement aimed at giving a legal basis for US troops to stay in Iraq after December 31, when their UN mandate expires.

Iran and the United States blame each other for violence in Iraq and are also sharply at odds over Teheran's nuclear program, which Washington suspects is aimed at making bombs. Iran says it is a peaceful drive to produce electricity.

"The presence of occupiers in Iraq, particularly the US armed forces ... is the main obstacle to unity in Iraq," state radio quoted Khamenei, Shi'ite Iran's top authority, as saying.

He accused them of using their military and security powers to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs but that the "Americans' dreams" in the Middle East country would not be realised.

The talks on a "status of forces" deal are the subject of heated debate both in the US and Iraq, where thousands have answered the anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's call for weekly protests after Friday Muslim prayers.

US officials have accused Iran of seeking to derail the negotiations by "inspiring" media reports that the US is trying to force Iraq to accept a deal on permanent bases.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said when asked if he thought Iraq could resist Iranian pressure not to make such a deal with the US: "Iraq is a sovereign state that is going to act in its national interest."

Maliki's government treads a fine line in its relations with the Islamic Republic, seeking support while mindful of US accusations that Iran supports Shi'ite militias in Iraq.

Iran denies this and blames the presence of US troops, currently numbering about 150,000, for the bloodshed that has followed the US-led invasion of Iraq.

Iraq's government spokesman said before Maliki's three-day visit started on Saturday that the issue of Iranian interference would be raised, but it was not clear whether it had been discussed in his meetings so far in Teheran.

Analysts say Iran does not want Iraq to descend into chaos but nor does it want US forces to have an easy ride, which might give Washington ideas about military options against Iran.

http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/06/10/US_presence_is_Iraqs_main_problem_Iranian_leader

My rewrite:

US presence is Iran's main problem: Iranian leader
Reuters | Fredrik Dahl
10/06/2008

Iran's supreme leader told visiting Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki today the presence of US forces was the biggest obstacle to Iran and its development as a Muslim dictatorship.

He accused the US of possibly (in the future) using their military and security powers to interfere in Iran's internal affairs - including its aspirations to develop nuclear weapons capability - and vowed that the "Americans' dreams" in the Middle East would be opposed by Iran to stop their realization.

The talks on a "status of forces" deal are the subject of heated debate both in the US and Iran, where the faithful have managed to rally thousands of Iraqis to the anti-American Iranian cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's call for weekly protests after Friday Muslim prayers.

US officials have accused Iran of seeking to derail the negotiations by "inspiring" media reports against the agreement.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack was asked if he thought Iraq could resist Iranian pressure not to make such a deal with the US because "Iran is a sovereign state that is going to act in its national interest."

Analysts say Iran does not want Iraq to descend into chaos nor does it want US forces to have an easy ride, which might give Washington ideas about military options against Iran before they can realize their dreams in the region of shortly wiping Israel off the face of the Middle East map.

http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/06/10/US_presence_is_Iraqs_main_problem_Iranian_leader

-- June 13, 2008 11:56 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara, I think you are right. The leaders of Iraq are just playing for time, adn trying to survive whatever political changes might happen, with a new President.

I'm reading a book called Iran Awakening, and it gives me a lot more sympathy for Iranians. They have suffered a lot. They sufferered in the Iran-Iraq War, where America was on Iraq's side, and giving Saddam miiitary support, for attacking Iran. Of course America had to make a choice in the region, at the time. America decided, correctly I think, that when the Shah got thrown out, and the Ayatollah came into power, that, the radical brand of Islam espoused by the Ayatollah, was so dangerous, they had to back Saddam, who was a secularist. So, America backed Saddam, they had a big war with Iran, and many Iranians suffered and died.

Many Iranians have never forgiven America for backing Saddam, but if they are honest, they'd have to admit Iranians are their own worst enemy. Within their society is a brand of Islam, currently still in political power, within Iran, that is badly out of step with the modern world. It is a brutal, intolerant form of thought.

For instance, under Sharia Law, in Iran, a woman is legally worth half of what a man is worth. They don't believe in fair justice, and the impartial rule of law. Very little political opposition or dissent is tolerated. Human rights abuses under their intolerant corrupt legal system seem never to end.

Iran will have to, in time, address all these issues, if America and Iran are to have a positive relationship in the future. And I believe, in the long run, the Iranian Revolution, that brought in extremist religious rule, has shot itself in the foot. Like the Communists in Russia, they came to power with glowing words, telling the people how wonderful and glorious and holy and uncorrupt a regime they were going to run. The reality turned into the complete opposite. The reality has been, for thirty years, that the religious radicals have been failures, in managing their own countries, and have brutalized much of the country. And Iranians can see this. Eventually they get sick of it.

I think the reason for this is that the ideas of the Iranian Revolution, of ordering a society around Muslim religious principles, from a thousand years ago, is absurd and will never work. Their ideology is a complete failure. Religions should influence morality, and law, and the proper conduct of personal living, but the primary purpose of any religion, the original reasons for the existance of any religion, is not as a practical theory of organizing societies, and political and economic systems. It's like trying to get a horse, to pull a car. In the West, with it's Christian past, we slowly, over the centuries, separated the two, and found ways to organize our societies, in practical ways. But of course, Christianity got it right from the start, as Christ said, "Render unto Caesar, what is Caesar's, and unto God, what is God's". From this grand principle, Christian societies were able to, in time, extrapolate further principles, clarifying the relationship between religion and politics. Islam never understood this, and the Iranians still don't. Their religion, and the ordering of their societies, is severely lacking, because of this.

So, they try to order societies, mixing up, too much, religion and politics. It will never work. It is a failure of an idea, temporarily propped up, because Iran has oil.

Eventually, Iranians will have to see the error of their ways. They will have to embrace the same sort of norms that govern our societies, while keeping their religious faith.

From what I have read, many Iranians are quite sick of the fanatics who run their country, and would like their society to evolve into a moderate society that operates under principles of freedom of thought and religion and politics, much like America. The fanatics in Iran, who brought in the Iranian Revolution, are mostly older people now, and there is a great mass of younger Iranians who are much more moderate. Eventually they will control Iran, and at that point, if America helps them reform their society, then progress is possible.

So, in the relations between America and Iran, at present, I don't see much hope. Power is the only thing they understand. Maybe in 20-30 years, moderates will rule Iran, and America and Iran can have good relations. Till then, I don't see much hope.

I think that America should engage the Iranian leaders, as far as is possible, based on common interest, to stabilize Iraq. But I don't believe much in "soft power". I don't think Iranian leaders care at all what America or the rest of the world thinks, or perceives. They would be more than happy to violate any kind of norm, or law, in the pursuit of their own power. There can be no appeal to higher ideals, with these people. Any deals would have to be purely formed around self interest, on both parties.

I hope, in the end, America gets it's bases in Iraq, helps stabilize that country, and tells Iran to stuff it, we're staying. I think the politics and history of that region are so filled with bad blood, that only if America stays, in the long run, many decades, can you hope to see real reform, in the region. The people in the region will all get sick of their fanatical religious based rule, and if they are shown a better way, they will eventually embrace it, and slowily reform their societies.

So President Bush's vision, of democratizing and reforming the region is correct, is the only thing that will work, in the long run, but in order for it to work, America will have to stay in Iraq for a long time. If the Democrats pull our of Iraq, then America loses the chance to help Muslims see a better way, which would have spilled over to Iran, eventually, giving Iranians a chance to reform their society as well. So, while it seems like the easy thing to do, right now, for the Democrats, since a lot of people don't like war, pulling out of Iraq will have the exact opposite effect of what people think. It won't reduce war and suffering. It will increase it.

President Bush's vision, if followed, will eventually lead to long term peace. As the people of the middle east slowly embrace our values, our norms, and evolve their societies, then America can have enough in common with these people, to live in peace.

-- June 13, 2008 1:26 PM


Anonymous wrote:

Sara,

I meant for the headings on the left in the blue column

For the Introduction, Archeology, History, Islam, Major cities and Mythology

At times you have to sort the wheat from the chaf

Steve.

-- June 13, 2008 2:50 PM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, Steve.
Didn't mean to be nitpicky.
Appreciate that.
I am sure it has some good information if you can get past (ignore) the bias and slant..
It appears to have some encyclopedic info on these subjects which is quite interesting.
The site is done by a very dedicated religious Muslim,
so it has a different perspective on these issues than a more westernized media like wikipedia may have.

Sara.

-- June 13, 2008 3:48 PM


cornishboy wrote:

nice sit steve.

-- June 13, 2008 4:13 PM


Sara wrote:

Timbitts;

Well said! :) :)

I particularly agree with your saying, quote "Render unto Caesar, what is Caesar's, and unto God, what is God's". From this grand principle, Christian societies were able to, in time, extrapolate further principles, clarifying the relationship between religion and politics." (end quote)

Christianity was never meant by Jesus to be a religion of the sword (one that forces obedience to religious tenants). In the form which Jesus Christ preached, it is a peaceful religion which coexists with politics, yet remaining true to God. I think that vision is what all religions truly are striving toward, and as you pointed out, quote, "From what I have read, many Iranians are quite sick of the fanatics who run their country, and would like their society to evolve into a moderate society that operates under principles of freedom of thought and religion and politics, much like America." (end quote)

I believe this statement of yours is true and is the aim which all of the society of man is working toward. It is the idea of "you worship what you feel is right, and I do the same, and let's respect each other. We don't have to agree to live in peace." A prophecy of this future when mankind will "beat their swords (instruments of war) into plowshares" and never learn war anymore, speaks of this:

Mic 4:2 And many nations shall come, and say, Come, and let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, and to the house of the God of Jacob; and He will teach us of His ways, and we will walk in His paths: for the law shall go forth of Zion, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem.
Mic 4:3 And He shall judge among many people, and rebuke strong nations afar off; and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruninghooks: nation shall not lift up a sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.
Mic 4:4 But they shall sit every man under his vine and under his fig tree; and none shall make them afraid: for the mouth of the LORD of hosts hath spoken it.
Mic 4:5 For all people will walk every one in the name of his god, and we will walk in the name of the LORD our God for ever and ever.

This teaches faithful Christians and all people of good will to work toward a day when people from "many nations" will have the CHOICE to choose if they wish to serve our God or another one. And in that freedom of religion and worship, there will be a time of such peace that men will no longer learn war anymore, but every man will be under his own "vine and fig tree" - which is the equivalent of the American dream of a home with a white picket fence and a family. Then all people will be free to walk in the name of their own God without fear.

For now, this barbaric monstrosity which seeks to impose itself on the world and causes terrorism and bloodshed - this false and bloody theology of fear - is being allowed to be in the earth. But it will not prevail. In time, even within Iran, free choice of religion (without compulsion) will replace it.

As you said, perhaps the hardliners will die out or be removed - as Saddam was - (which is likely what these bloody despots fear), and be replaced by better men and freer systems. There is no fear necessary on the part of Islamics that Christianity will force the Middle East to adopt our views or God. The Islamics can stay worshippers of Allah if they wish to. For all people will walk every one in the name of his god, ..

All our God wishes for mankind is that they are free to choose what they would wish to believe, and we believe that any man who FORCES obedience to something which is not what their hearts truly believe is creating travesty and untruth. God never forces mankind's obedience, though He wishes men to give such allegiance to Him willingly.

I pray toward the day when men and women can choose their religious convictions and not be persecuted, tortured, humiliated or killed for that choice. I believe it will come soon to Iran as well as Iraq and the rest of the region if we keep working toward it and a good step in that direction would be if we do not pull out, as you said, "only if America stays, in the long run, many decades, can you hope to see real reform, in the region. The people in the region will all get sick of their fanatical religious based rule, and if they are shown a better way, they will eventually embrace it, and slowily reform their societies." (end quote)

As you said, also, "Iranians are their own worst enemy. Within their society is a brand of Islam, currently still in political power, within Iran, that is badly out of step with the modern world. It is a brutal, intolerant form of thought." (end quote)

The people of the Middle East deserve to live by their own true convictions and not according to dictatorial religious outward form - whatever God that may cause them in good conscience to choose to believe. By America remaining in the region, they will be helping the world move toward the ideals of peace.

As you said (you had so many gems in that last post, thanks), "President Bush's vision, of democratizing and reforming the region is correct, is the only thing that will work, in the long run. President Bush's vision, if followed, will eventually lead to long term peace." (end quote)

Surely this is worthy of the nation taking up as a goal - real workable policies toward world peace? It will greatly benefit America as well as the world in the long run. And this isn't peacenik "bubble mentality" and disconnected from reality, as Code Pinkers and the pullout crowd, but based on real measures toward Democratization and necessary Reform toward the goal of REAL world peace.

America, for all her flaws, is still "salt and light" to the world. Though those of the darkness hate the light and rail against it.. in the end, if America sticks to it, the light will prevail and the world will be much better for it. I pray God that the American public will be moved to elect to the Presidency and Congress those who will do this right thing by not pulling out of Iraq.. for America's sake to rid her of deadly enemies, and for the cause of eventually creating a real, sustainable world peace. :)

Sara.

-- June 13, 2008 4:54 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Have you heard anything of the rumor that Bush is turning Catholic, as did Tony Blair?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!!!

Carole

-- June 13, 2008 8:37 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Talk about shock and awe, Tim Russert NBC anchor of meet the press is dead of a heart attack at 58.

-- June 13, 2008 10:19 PM


Sara wrote:

Hadn't heard that rumor, Carole.

Here is the wikipedia on Mr. Russert, Rob N:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Russert

-- June 13, 2008 11:20 PM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq's Maliki backs efforts to ease oil prices
Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:15am BST

AMMAN (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said on Friday the OPEC producer backed global efforts to tame high oil prices.

"We support the idea of studying the issue of decreasing the oil price by the international community, OPEC and international organizations," he told reporters on a state visit to Jordan.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told Reuters on Thursday that speculators are to blame for high global oil prices and more crude from Saudi Arabia or other OPEC producers will not solve the problem.

Leading exporter Saudi Arabia has summoned consumer nations and fellow producers to an urgently convened meeting to be held on June 22 to discuss oil prices it says are unjustifiably high.

Maliki said greater efforts should be made to balance the market between producers and consumers to ease the burden on poor countries who will suffer the most from high oil prices.

(Reporting by Waleed Ibrahim, Writing by Michael Georgy in Baghdad)

-- June 14, 2008 6:16 AM


cornishboy wrote:

US too weak for Iran attack

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US too weak for Iran attack
Sat, 14 Jun 2008 06:30:09
Iran's Ambassador to the UAE, Hamid-Reza Asefi
Iran's ambassador to the UAE says any US military action against Iran is unlikely since such an attack will put the US in deep trouble.

In an interview with Alsharq Alawsat which was published on Friday, Hamid-Reza Asefi in response to a question about the prospect of a US attack on Iran said that "I do not believe that the United States will take a step like attacking Iran. The United States is too fragile to attack Iran militarily."

In reply to a question about the recent remarks made by the Israeli transport minister Shaul Mofaz who had threatened that Israel could attack Iran, Asefi said "the Zionist entity is trying to cover its internal problems by exporting them abroad."

"They (Israeli officials) believe that President Bush is spending his last months in the White House and will not dare to take any step against Iran while they want to push him to do so," he added.

"Israelis rely on psychological war in these statements. But I say very frankly that Israel knows what would happen to it if it takes this stupid step. Such a measure will be catastrophic for Israel," Asefi concluded.

-- June 14, 2008 9:24 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

I heard this on a talk radio show "John and Ken". They were reporting that the Pope had invited Bush to a HIGH HOLY PLACE in the Vatican Cathedral, that was an extremely rare invitation, and certainly reserved for "Catholic" dignitaries. The assumption was being made that the events and auroa of the Vatican mirrored the conversion of Tony Blair.

Carole

-- June 14, 2008 10:50 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Cornishboy:

Let Iran think we are too weak to attack. I believe we will attack Iran before the President's term ends. What extent the attack will be is anyone's guess. Months ago there was talk of the Pentagon composing plans for an American attack upon Islamic trainning camps inside Iran.

My personal opinion is a limited strike against trainning camps will have limited effect. I would like to see a dual strike by both the U.S. and Israel focused on the Iranian capital. If I were President, Terahn University would be my first target. Next, are their underground nuclear installations using bunker busters. Finally, bombing all the government buildings.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 14, 2008 4:53 PM


Sara wrote:

Rob N;

There can be contingency plans in place toward Iran and undoubtedly there are some, as the US runs such scenerios all the time (it is a hobby of the military, just kidding - it is necessary for proper security). However, the actual choice to go to war can be either deliberate or forced.

In the case of President Bush, I believe they have it correct. He is not actually planning to go to war. However, that does not mean he will not be forced to do so by future events. Unlike those who think the President planned to go into Iraq before being elected or 911 happened, I think events occurred which took him in this direction and influenced the decision to go to war in Iraq, and something similar could happen here.

While I believe the US does not want to do a strike unless it is felt such an option is unavoidable, that threshold can be reached rapidly if Iran gets nuclear weapons and is about to deploy them.. IRAN could hold the cards in that case - bringing down upon itself war by its actions in becoming nuclear weapons capable. And they are moving toward that goal, as we all know. The fact they will not stop their seeking nuclear weapons and the fact that they are continuing to thumb their noses at Israel and the US while calling for the destruction of them both.. is alarming. But the threshold and limit to how far they can push before committing suicide as a nation has not been reached. As it is the first "suicidal nation" in the history of the earth, I think it is a unique place we have in history in viewing this. We will see how it will turn out soon enough.

Their assessment that "Israeli officials believe that President Bush is spending his last months in the White House and will not dare to take any step against Iran" is true. But likely, so is your assessment that the plan is there, and the danger could mount to the point of needing to be taken care of. President Bush has proven he is a man of integrity who will do what he feels is right, even when it is unpopular. We will see how it goes.. Iran hasn't taken off the table their nuclear plans or threats, and the US hasn't taken off the table the option to face that threat with weaponry designed to remove the Iranian threat. Escalation is possible, indeed, likely. The only question is WHEN.

Sara.

===

Report: Ahmadinejad Tells Japan to ‘Prepare for a World Without the U.S.’
Thursday, June 05, 2008 / AP

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Japan’s prime minister Thursday that the world will soon not include the United States, Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

"The U.S. domination is on the fall. Iran and Japan as two civilized and influential nations should get ready for a world minus the U.S.," Ahmadinejad told Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on the sidelines of the U.N. food summit in Rome on Tuesday, IRNA reported.

Also on Thursday, Iran accused the U.S. of pressuring the U.N.'s nuclear agency to base its latest investigation of Tehran's nuclear activities on fake evidence suggesting that Iran had a secret weapons program.

Ahmadinejad is currently at odds with Iran's new reformist parliament due to growing social and economic unrest.

In addition, the Iranian president is under fire worldwide for his comments on the destruction of Israel, his "suspicions" of the Sept. 11 terror attacks and his belief that homosexuals deserve to be executed, tortured or both.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,363498,00.html

-- June 14, 2008 7:55 PM


Sara wrote:

The United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany offered to help Iran "to develop a civilian nuclear programme with light water reactors -- seen as less prone to diversion into bombmaking than technology Tehran now has -- and legally-binding nuclear fuel supply guarantees." They also pledged "to fully recognize Iran's right to have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes".. and Iran rejected the offer out of hand.
Why do you think that is?

===

Iran rules out nuclear halt despite powers' offer
Sat Jun 14, 2008
By Parisa Hafezi and Fredrik Dahl

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran again ruled out suspending sensitive nuclear work on Saturday, despite an offer by six world powers of trade and other benefits to try to coax it into stopping activities the West fears are aimed at making bombs.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana reaffirmed the six powers behind the package wanted Iran to suspend enrichment during talks on the offer -- a precondition the Islamic Republic has repeatedly rejected.

The incentives offer agreed by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany last month is a revised version of one rejected by Iran in 2006.

Diplomats have played down prospects for a breakthrough in a dispute that has helped send oil prices to record highs.

The United States and its European allies have warned of broader sanctions against Iran if it rejects the proposal and presses ahead with atomic activities which can have both civilian and military uses.

Solana said he expected a reply soon from Iran, which says it will not stop a nuclear programme it says is for generating electricity so that the world's fourth-largest oil producer can export more crude and natural gas.

He said he hoped the powers' overture, tailored to coax Tehran into stopping pursuit of enrichment ability, a possible pathway to atom bombs, would be a springboard to negotiations.

"We continue to ask for suspension," Solana told a news conference after presenting the incentives package to Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

The offer included help for Iran to develop a civilian nuclear programme with light water reactors -- seen as less prone to diversion into bombmaking than technology Tehran now has -- and legally-binding nuclear fuel supply guarantees.

The six powers were ready to fully recognize Iran's right to have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, he said.

Mottaki suggested Iran was ready to engage in negotiations, but said its response to the major powers' incentives depended on their reaction to Tehran's own package of proposals aimed at defusing the row, submitted to the EU and others last month.

Diplomats say Iran's proposals failed to allay concerns about its uranium enrichment programme.

Iran's refusal to stop enriching uranium, which can be used as fuel for power plants or provide material for bombs, has drawn three rounds of U.N. sanctions since late 2006.

The United States says it wants a diplomatic solution but has not ruled out military action as a last resort.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSDAH33916920080614

-- June 14, 2008 9:56 PM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

Concerning the special treatment afforded President Bush, "The pope is doing this because he is a gentleman. That's the long and short of it."

===

Bush urges unity on Iran after meeting pope
Fri Jun 13, 2008
By Jeremy Pelofsky and Matt Spetalnick

PARIS (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush urged European allies on Friday to unite with Washington to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Bush was in Paris as part of his European farewell tour aimed at convincing allies to tighten sanctions on Iran if it refuses to accept incentives to stop enriching uranium, which the West worries could be used for nuclear bombs.

"Instead of dwelling on our differences, we are increasingly united in our interests and ideals," Bush said at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"For the security of Europe and for the peace of the world, we must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

Bush is seeking a diplomatic solution to a standoff with Tehran over its nuclear energy program while also making it clear that military options remain on the table.

In Tehran, leading cleric Ayatollah Mohammed Emami-Kashani, accused Bush and the United States of "setting the whole world on fire" with his campaign about Iran.

Taking a brief break from his campaign to rally European support for sanctions against Iran, Bush held 30 minutes of private talks with Pope Benedict in the Vatican Gardens earlier.

Bush's meeting with the pope was the first time the pontiff hosted a visiting head of state elsewhere than in his private study. It was meant to repay Bush for the warm White House lawn reception the pope got in April on his 81st birthday.

Benedict's predecessor John Paul II had a led a campaign against the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, but the president and the new pontiff see eye-to-eye on many moral issues, such as abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

A Vatican statement said the two discussed the "defense of fundamental moral values", as well as the Middle East and a commitment to peace in the Holy Land, globalization, and the world food crisis.

La Repubblica newspaper said not everyone in the Vatican was happy to see Benedict giving Bush special treatment. It quoted unnamed monsignors recalling that Bush did not heed the late John Paul's warnings against invading Iraq.

One Vatican official close to the pope told Reuters early on Friday: "The pope is doing this because he is a gentleman. That's the long and short of it."

To round off his tour, Bush will meet British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL1381666420080613

-- June 14, 2008 10:10 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq appears unlikely to bite the hand that is defending it from total annihilation by the terrorists..
Maybe they don't want to follow their neighbor Iran's suicidal tendencies?

==

Bush still expects security pact with Iraq
Sat Jun 14, 2008

PARIS (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush said on Saturday he expected to reach a long-term security pact with Iraq despite Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki saying talks were deadlocked because of sovereignty concerns.

"If I were a betting man, we'll reach an agreement with the Iraqis," Bush told a joint news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy. "Of course we're there at their invitation."

He reiterated that such a deal would not commit future U.S. presidents to troop levels or establish permanent bases in Iraq.

The United States and Iraq have been negotiating a new security deal to provide a legal basis for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq after December 31, when their U.N. mandate expires, as well as a separate long-term agreement on political, economic and security ties.

"We believe that a strategic relationship with Iraq is important, it's important for Iraq, it's important for the United States, it's important for the region," Bush said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSCOL33273620080614

-- June 14, 2008 10:29 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Thanks, we'll see if anymore detail is forthcoming. All very intersting, to say the least.

BTW, I have taken up a new hobby.....fishing! One of my 18 year old grandsons is my partner. Having alot of fun, caught NOTHING yet, but it is a GOD-GIVEN distraction to the deterioration I have been watching my mom go through for the last 5 weeks. It has really been getting to me, so I welcomed the new venture. Finally got up enough nerve to cast my own rod, and ended up taking half of a tree with me....lots of laughs, which feels pretty good right now.

There is so much pending gloom around the globe, that a break from it is needed by all of us. My heart goes out to the people in Iowa....what calamity has struck them.

Carole

-- June 15, 2008 3:20 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq beefs up forces in militia crackdown

Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:13am BST

AMARA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq's government beefed up army and police units in the southern city of Amara on Sunday for a new crackdown on Shi'ite militias, a Reuters reporter said.

Iraqi military convoys including armoured vehicles and tanks were moving through the northern side of the city, he said.

The operation is the latest stage in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's drive to stamp his government's authority on areas of the country previously controlled by Shi'ite militias or Sunni Arab insurgents.

In a statement read on state television on Saturday night, Maliki said he was giving outlaws and criminals a last chance to surrender and hand over heavy and medium weapons.

Amara is a stronghold of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who agreed to a ceasefire after U.S.-backed Iraqi forces launched a major offensive on his Mehdi Army militia in Basra in March. But he remains an unpredictable security concern.

(Reporting by Haider al-Nasrallah; Writing by Michael Georgy)

-- June 15, 2008 6:53 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq's Sadr movement to back candidates in polls

Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:13am BST

By Waleed Ibrahim

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The movement of Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will not compete in local elections under its own name but join with other groups and ask its followers to vote for those candidates, Sadr officials said on Sunday.

Salah al-Ubaidi, the chief spokesman for the anti-American cleric, denied reports the group was boycotting the polls, which are scheduled for October 1 and seen as the battleground for a power struggle that could redraw Iraq's political map.

The move by the opposition Sadr bloc could be a way to get around a draft elections law that is expected to ban any group that has a militia from taking part in the polls.

Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has demanded Sadr disband his Mehdi Army, a militia blamed for widespread sectarian attacks in 2006 and 2007.

Sadr has refused, but has urged his followers to observe a truce with Iraqi forces in the wake of crackdowns that targeted the militia in Baghdad and Shi'ite southern Iraq.

Iraqi forces are preparing for another offensive, this time in the southern city of Amara, which is a Sadr stronghold.

Ubaidi said the movement had made the decision because it did not want to "politicise" the polls. He did not elaborate.

"We will not take part in the coming elections under the name of the Sadr bloc list. We will call our candidates to participate in joint lists and we will call our followers to vote for them," Ubaidi told Reuters.

FOSTERING RECONCILIATION

The movement's candidates could join with the heads of tribes, technocrats, politicians or social figures, he said.

The Sadrists boycotted the last provincial elections in January 2005 and have been expected to make gains at the expense of Shi'ite parties now supporting Maliki, especially in the south where there has been much criticism of the performance of local government.

Luwaa Sumaisem, head of the Sadr bloc's political committee, said the movement would urge its followers to vote for candidates "we believe will serve our policy and the people".

He denied the decision had anything to do with the draft elections law.

While Iraq has set October 1 as the date for the elections, U.S. officials have said there could be delays. The elections law has yet to be passed and electoral officials say they will need months to prepare.

Washington says the elections will foster reconciliation by boosting the participation of minority Sunni Arabs in politics. Sunni Arabs, who also boycotted the January polls, are under- represented in areas where they are numerically dominant.

But many fear conflict in the south, where the Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which backs Maliki, are vying for influence in a region home to most of Iraq's oil production.

The Sadrist movement has accused Maliki of using the crackdown on Shi'ite militias to try to weaken it ahead of the elections. Maliki has said he is imposing law and order.

(Writing by Dean Yates, edited by Richard Meares)

-- June 15, 2008 7:07 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq eliminates China from World Cup contention with 2-1 victory

1 day ago

TIANJIN, China — Iraq eliminated China from World Cup qualifying with a 2-1 victory Saturday that brought celebratory gunfire in Baghdad.

Zhou Haibing gave China a 1-0 lead in the first half, but defending Asian champion Iraq rallied with a first-half goal by Emad Ridha and the winner by Nashat Akram 20 minutes into the second half.

China was eliminated with only three points in five games in Group One. Iraq has seven points in five games and plays its final qualifier June 22 against Qatar. China plays at Australia the same day. The top two teams in the group advance to the final stage of qualifying for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

Australia and Qatar, each with seven points, were to play later Saturday.

Iraq captain Younis Mahmoud went off with an injury after only 11 minutes. In the 34th minute, Zheng Zhi took an indirect free kick and passed to Zhou, who scored from 20 yards.

Iraq equalized in the final minutes of the first half on a 10-yard header from Ridha, setting the stage for Akram's winner from 20 yards in the 66th.

The ouster could spell trouble for China manager Vladimir Petrovic. Petrovic is handling the national team with head coach Radomir Dujkovic, who is also coaching China's Olympic team.

China has qualified only once for the World Cup, in 2002, losing all three group games and failing to score a goal - an embarrassment for the world's most populous country.
source: GOOGLE NEWS

-- June 15, 2008 1:32 PM


mattuk wrote:

OSLO, June 13 (Reuters) - Shares in Norwegian oil and gas producer DNO International (DNO.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) surged as much as 18 percent on Friday on rumours that the company may soon be able to export the oil it is producing in northern Iraq.

At 0713 GMT, DNO stock was up 15.8 percent at 12.18 crowns.

DNO has said it could quickly ramp-up production in Kurdistan once it wins an export licence, which is the subject of negotiations between regional Kurdish authorities and the central Iraqi government in Baghdad. (Reporting by Wojciech Moskwa)

-- June 15, 2008 1:37 PM


Sara wrote:

It looks like Sadr figured out that the Iraqi people don't support him and his pro-Iranian terrorist opinions. So, instead of being trounced at the polls on the upcoming provincial election day, he has decided not to participate.
Undoubtedly, he reads opinion polls, too.

====

Sadr's group to boycott Iraq provincial elections
Sun Jun 15, 2008

NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) - The political movement of hardline Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr will not participate in Iraqi provincial elections in October, the cleric's main spokesman told AFP on Sunday.

"The Sadr group will not take part in the (provincial) elections as we did in the parliamentary election," said Sheikh Salah al-Obeidi, spokesman for Sadr in the holy city of Najaf.

"This is the decison as of now by Moqtada and the Sadrists. We want to avoid making the same mistakes of being part of the sectarian divisions."

Iraq is due to hold elections in its 18 provinces on October 1, a key benchmark set by Washington to stabilise the war-torn country.

The Sadr group has 32 lawmakers in the 275-member parliament.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/080615/world/iraq_vote_sadr
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&447A9F79B1566FD2C2257469002ECB9E

-- June 15, 2008 2:31 PM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, Carole. :)
Happy fishing!!

Good articles, mattuk.
The one you posted on Sadr was interesting where it said:

"The move by the opposition Sadr bloc could be a way to get around a draft elections law that is expected to ban any group that has a militia from taking part in the polls."

Interesting speculation, that.
Thanks for posting it. :)

Sara.

-- June 16, 2008 1:21 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

The change in Iraq

Is it turning the corner?
Jun 12th 2008 | BAGHDAD AND ERBIL

By all the main measures—military, political and economic—Iraq is now improving, from a dire base. But that does not yet mean it is headed for peace and prosperity

Though still lacerated by the tragedy of the past five years, Iraq is at last getting better all round. The violence, albeit still ferocious in parts of the country, has subsided dramatically. The American military “surge” that began a year ago has worked better than even the optimists had hoped, helped by ceasefires with Shia militias, by accords with Sunni tribal leaders and by the fact that sectarian cleansing in many areas is sadly complete.

Politics is also beginning to stutter towards something approaching normality, with signs of an accommodation between the three main communities—Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds—and the prospect of a series of vital laws, on such matters as sharing the revenue from oil, being passed, though they are still subject to endless last-minute hiccups. Some key laws, for instance on pensions and the budget, have recently been enacted. A set of provincial elections towards the end of this year has a chance of empowering the aggrieved Sunni Arabs. Various Sunni ministers who walked out of the government a year ago in a huff may soon be back in.

The economy has begun to grow fast too, though its ripples have yet to be felt across the country. The soaring price of oil, along with a mild improvement in production to just above its pre-war peak, mean that the government has more cash to spend than it is has had since the first Gulf war of 1991.


In sum, the worst of the horrors unleashed in the sectarian violence after the bombing of a Shia shrine in February 2006 may be over. The death rate is sharply down. Fewer Americans were killed in hostilities in May, when 19 died, than in any month since the invasion of March 2003 (see chart). That is half the average for the first four months of this year and one-quarter of last year's rate. The Iraqi civilian toll is harder to measure. Iraq Body Count, a group that collates a tally of casualties from media reports, noted 752 civilian and police deaths in May, a grim figure but less than a third of the average last summer.

American officials in Baghdad are careful to avoid the misplaced triumphalism expressed immediately after the invasion five years ago. Progress, as General David Petraeus, the American commander on the ground, is wont to say, is “fragile and reversible”. But in Baghdad's Green Zone, the sealed-off sanctuary on the west bank of the River Tigris where the American-led coalition's headquarters and most of Iraqi ministries are ensconced, optimism is back in the air, reflecting a broader change of mood in the country. An opinion poll in February that asked Iraqis “How would you say things are going overall these days?” found that 43% said they were going well, up from only 22% in September. Among Shias, the figure rose from 39% to 61%; among Sunnis, it went from a paltry 2% to 16%, but a notable jump all the same. If the poll were conducted today, the answers would be more positive still.

One clear reason for hope is that al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch has taken a big knock. The CIA's director, Michael Hayden, recently said it had suffered a “near-strategic defeat”. Serviced mainly by Sunni radicals from the wider Arab world, al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia (as it calls itself) was responsible for most of the huge car bombs that terrorised Shia communities and provoked their backlash of sectarian cleansing, almost tipping Iraq into full-scale civil war two years ago. Such bombings and sectarian attacks are now scarcer.

Down but not out
But al-Qaeda is certainly not defeated. It is still active in the mixed Sunni-Shia province of Diyala and in the northern city of Mosul and its surrounding Nineveh province. It attacks the tribal leaders of the Sunni Awakening (or Sahwa) movement, for instance in the western province of Anbar, who have been persuaded to throw in their lot with the Americans. Most Sunni Arabs have turned strongly against it.

A chance to build Another reason for the drop in violence is that the mass movement loyal to a fierce Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, has also either decided to back off, perhaps just for the time being, or has been beaten back by a mixture of American and Iraqi government forces. Earlier this year, Sadrist violence had risen, culminating in March in a big battle for the southern port city of Basra. At first, the Sadrists seemed to have fended off attempts by the Iraqi army to squash them. The Sadrists' Mahdi Army militias elsewhere in southern and central Iraq and in the eastern slums of Baghdad known as Sadr City rose up in solidarity with their brothers in Basra. From their base in Sadr City, on the opposite side of the Tigris, they subjected Baghdad's Green Zone to a hail of mortar and rocket fire.

But in mid-May they accepted a truce. Since then, the Iraqi army has been able to patrol Sadr City more or less unmolested, uncovering weapons caches and sniffing out leaders of so-called “special groups” of renegade Sadrists who appear to be beyond the control of Mr Sadr himself. The government will get a big boost if it can at last bring basic services into the wretched slums of Sadr City, such as electricity, sanitation and medicine. In Basra too, after an astonishing turn-round, the Iraqi army seems to have bested the Sadrists.

Yet the Sadrists still have a wide base of support, especially among the poor. Mr Sadr himself may be planning to turn his movement into a mainstream political-cum-religious party. The prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, aiming his wrath at the Sadrists, has said that no party may take part in the provincial elections unless it first disbands its militias. No one expects the Mahdi Army to disband fully—and no one is sure how much control Mr Sadr has over his movement's fractious components. He may manage to persuade most of his militiamen to stand down. But if Mr Maliki seeks to disbar the movement from competing in the elections, the Sadrists may still run as independents—and could yet sweep the board in the south.

In the north, further progress in pacifying Mosul and its surrounding area would allow the government to claim with some justification that it is winning the war. The city is a last redoubt of al-Qaeda and a bastion of nationalist Baathists. By most accounts, government forces, with the Americans, are making steady advances.

The government has gained in confidence too. Mr Maliki's reputation has risen sharply since his forces' success in Basra, particularly among Sunnis and Kurds, many of whom praised him for showing that he was prepared to take on the militias from within his own Shia community. Since then, Western diplomats in Baghdad have noticed Mr Maliki's growing readiness to take decisions without conferring with the Americans first.

He is trying to strengthen his nationalist credentials in negotiations between his government and the American administration over a “status of forces agreement”. Mr Maliki wants to end the UN's formal sway over Iraq enshrined in an agreement renewed periodically since the invasion. He would like to replace it with a bilateral deal that would curb American powers—for instance, the power to detain Iraqi citizens, to launch military attacks without having to consult the Iraqi authorities, to fly through Iraqi airspace at will, and to give American soldiers and contractors immunity from prosecution if they break Iraqi laws.

In reality, Mr Maliki still relies on the Americans, so he is unlikely to force the issue. Moreover, the results of provincial elections in the autumn and of America's own presidential election in November may sharply change the political landscape. So he may well let the matter drag on towards the end of the year. But he has been flashing his nationalist teeth—and may yet succeed to some degree in shifting power from the occupier to the government of a sovereign country.

An oil-fired recovery
If, with the government's growing political and military authority, Mr Maliki could get the economy moving, then the much-uttered phrase “turning the corner” may be apt. Iraq's windfall from higher oil prices is grand. America's State Department reckons that, if prices stay put, Iraq this year should earn more than $70 billion, though this year's budget projected $35.5 billion based on $57 a barrel at a production rate of 1.7m barrels a day. The latest production figure is 2.53m, a shade higher than its pre-war peak.

So far the cash has yet to be turned into decent public services. People in Baghdad say that they have only a few hours of state-provided electricity a day; the Americans admit that the Baghdad average is seven hours. A vaunted advance is in telephony: there are now 12m cellular phones, against a handful before the war, and 261,000 Iraqis subscribe to the internet, against almost none before the war.

Yet the biggest obstacle to economic progress is the lack of qualified people and civil servants to make use of the cash pouring in. The ministries spent barely half of their capital budgets last year, while provincial governments used up less than a third, according to an American government watchdog. Thanks partly to the “de-Baathification” decree of the early American administration which chased out the senior ranks of Saddam's old bureaucracy, the state virtually ceased to function. But what is left of the old civil service may be starting to operate better again. Professor Toby Dodge, a British expert who has been sceptical of many of the American administration's past policies in Iraq, says that “the state is beginning to re-cohere”.

There is a long way to go. Much of the middle class has fled; many of its members have been killed. According to the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees, some 2.8m Iraqis are still displaced within the country; another 2.2m-plus have gone abroad, out of an original population of 27m or so. The official unemployment rate is 25-40%; in reality, it may be a lot higher. Businessmen and investors have yet to come back.

For there is still a risk of renewed general violence, not least from within the Shia community, where power is being sought by four main rival parties. The provincial elections are rightly promoted as the next crucial political event. The hope is that they will bring the Sunnis back into the fold of peaceful politics. But they could also unleash a furious cycle of intra-Shia violence, either if the Sadrists compete and win or if they compete and believe they have been cheated of victory.

As for the Sunnis, who are now often divided between the ascendant Sahwa movement and the older declining Islamic Party, Mr Maliki remains loth to draw them fully into his circle of power. If they continue to feel left out, they could easily turn their weapons once again against the new Shia-led establishment.

Meanwhile, the Kurds in the north are quietly consolidating their autonomy and peacefully making progress on all fronts, hoping that Iraq's Arabs will fully accept that federalism is the way to go. But they are angry that a promised referendum to determine whether the oil-rich province of Kirkuk should become part of their region is again sure to be delayed. In their hearts, most Kurds still hanker after full independence, even if many know in their heads that it is not practicable.

Iraq's future is still full of pitfalls. The sectarian chasms remain deep, the wounds of strife raw. But for the first time since the insurgency against the Americans took off, the tide, which may quickly ebb, is flowing in the direction of the new order.
(www.economist.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 16, 2008 9:42 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Securing its oil pipeline, Iraq can increase production and exports
By BEN LANDO, UPI Energy EditorPublished: June 13, 2008 at 11:03 AMOrder reprints | Print Story | Email to a Friend | Post a Comment
BAGHDAD, June 13 (UPI) -- More of Iraq's oil has seen the light of day and exports have realized post-invasion records as measures to stem attacks and other interference have proved successful along the key northern pipeline system.

Some who used to target the pipeline -- especially on the link from Baiji north through hot Sunni Arab insurgent territory and to Turkey -- are now paid to protect it, though long-term success is far from guaranteed.

"The export pipeline was under attack constantly last year this time," Oil Minister Hussain Shahristani told United Press International during an interview in his Baghdad office.

"Since then, with the awakening of the tribes in the region, we have recruited some young men from these tribes into our Oil Protection Force, and they've been doing a very good job defending those pipelines," he said. "We have really eliminated all the attacks, and that's why we've been able to export more."

The yearlong effort comes just in time: Iraqi oil exports passed the 2 million barrels per day average last month as oil continued climbing to record prices.

Overall oil production averaged 2.55 million bpd in May, "and we'll keep on adding to it toward the end of the year," Shahristani said. "We are planning to reach 2.8 (million) to 2.9 million bpd."

Iraq's south has more oil reserves, production and exports, and it has been less frequented by attacks. It's humming at 1.92 million bpd in production, he said, while northern flow has increased to 630,000 bpd. Domestic consumption is at "about half a million barrels a day," Shahristani said, with the rest sent to market via pipeline.

Although they hit 450,000 bpd in May, the pipelines from the Kirkuk fields in Iraq's north to the refinery of Baiji and then onto the Turkish port of Ceyhan were offline more often than not since 2003. Saboteurs were either sparking explosions as they tapped into the system or, more often, launching attacks on workers and infrastructure as part of their campaign.

There have been at least 779 attacks on pipelines from March 2003 through May 15, 2008, according to an expert in threats and vulnerabilities to the energy sector worldwide, who spoke to UPI on condition of anonymity.

Refineries have sustained 585 attacks, 569 on tanker trucks, six on maritime tankers and 47 attacks at the oil fields. And 767 workers have been killed, wounded or kidnapped.

More incidents have likely occurred but have gone unreported, the expert said.

This is true for the electricity sector as well, including 1,285 workers who met the same fate as their oil colleagues.

There were 681 attacks on transmission and distribution lines and 113 on power plants and substations.

But last summer the Iraqi and U.S. governments put together a new strategy to repair the lines, create better physical barriers against would-be threats, and use more armed Iraqis to guard their oil and electricity infrastructure.

"They've been threatened, they've been shot at, sent to areas where there's (al-Qaida in Iraq)," said Brig. Carew Wilks, a British official who heads the energy side of Strategic Operations for Multi-National Forces-Iraq. "They've been tremendous."

He also leads the Energy Fusion Cell, a coalition forces mix aimed at addressing Iraqi energy issues, such as working with repair teams of the ministries of Energy and Electricity. Key transmission towers and lines were also brought into a more secured area as well, Wilks said at his office in the fortified Baghdad "Green Zone."

"It was proven to be quite difficult to get the repair team safely for the repair," he said, but repairs were possible because of protection from the Iraqi army, police and the two ministries' security sections.

Shahristani said the Oil Protection Force is being folded into the Oil Police, a new arm of the Ministry of Interior.

"This will entitle them to pension, also if they are killed in the course of duty, and a number of other privileges, including salary raises," said Shahristani. "The salary, once they are properly part of the Oil Police, will be more than half a million dinars ($423) for the low salary as compared to the current lowest level of 250,000 dinars per month, so there is a number of incentives for them to join the Oil Police."

"There is no question that Iraq's ability to resume exports out of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline owes much to the collaboration of a number of Arab Sunni tribes, which are helping secure the area around Baiji," said Rochdi Younsi, Middle East analyst at the business risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Attempts in the past haven't always worked; at times tribal leadership accepted payment but did not provide services. Some refuse to cooperate with what they consider occupation forces. Those who do become special targets themselves.

But the Sunni leadership still feels marginalized in the Shiite- and Kurdish-led government and by extension the United States, and continued disenfranchisement may harm collaboration.

"I don't expect a sudden collapse of the U.S.-Sunni collaboration against al-Qaida in the short term, especially since Arab Sunni are genuinely determined to eradicate al-Qaida. Moreover, this is a unique chance for them to acquire weapons and funds," Younsi said. "If the security collaboration were to end, this would have a significant impact on oil exports through the northern pipeline, which is facing other problems pertaining to power generation and outdated infrastructure."
(www.upi.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 16, 2008 9:44 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq army tightens grip on southern city
Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:30am EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page| Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]

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AMARA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq's security forces tightened their grip on the southern city of Amara on Monday and appealed to Shi'ite militias to hand over heavy weapons before a government deadline for launching a crackdown.

"Our military forces ... have completed their deployment to ensure control of the whole city," the Iraqi Army's deputy chief of staff, Nasir al-Abadi, said in a statement.

The show of force in Amara, a stronghold of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia, is the latest stage in a government drive to extend its authority to areas that had been controlled by Shi'ite militias or Sunni Arab insurgents.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has given "outlaws" and "criminals" in Amara and the rest of the southern province of Maysan until Wednesday to surrender and hand over weapons.

He has authorized security forces to launch major operations from Thursday, saying the state must end "chaos" and crime in the impoverished province bordering Iran.

Maliki has already sent government forces into Mehdi Army bastions in Baghdad and the southern oil city of Basra and launched a campaign against al Qaeda Sunni Arab insurgents in the northern city of Mosul.

Maliki, criticized in the past for lacking resolve to stabilize Iraq, has gained a measure of respect at home and abroad with the offensives that have helped reduce violence to the lowest level in over four years.

The campaigns underscore the Shi'ite-led government's desire to take more control of security from the 150,000 U.S. troops in the country.

In the latest operation, army and police units with tanks and other armored vehicles have moved into Amara, reputed to be a centre for smuggling arms from neighboring Iran.

APPEAL

Abadi appealed to "deceived people to grasp this opportunity and deliver their weapons" to designated collection points at the local airport, stadium and police stations.

Abadi said the military deployment was aimed at plugging holes that wanted people could use to escape from the city.

He urged his forces to respect human rights and property while asking the province's influential tribal leaders to support the security forces during the operation.

Sadr sent a delegation of clerics to Amara last weekend with orders for Mehdi Army members to respect a ceasefire ordered by the cleric.

Amara residents say they do not expect clashes when the security forces enter the city. Some say militia members wanted by the authorities have already fled.

A security source in Amara said that, instead of handing in weapons at the collection centers, militants were dumping them in rivers, on streets or on farms.

Police were gathering up all kinds of abandoned weapons, such as mortars, machine guns, sniper rifles, and rocket-propelled grenades, he said.

Amara resident Mohammed Ridha said he saw a man taking mortar bombs and machine guns out of a pickup truck and dumping them on the bank of the Tigris river.

Two women later collected the weapons and were planning to take them to police in hope of receiving payment, he said.

Maysan Governor Adel al-Muhoudir told Reuters that the province's police chief, Ali al-Maliki, had been removed, but he gave no reason for the decision.

He has been replaced with an army brigadier-general.

The security source said a number of senior police officers in Amara would be changed.

Success in Amara could boost the prime minister's image ahead of provincial elections, due on October 1, seen as the battleground for a power struggle that could redraw Iraq's political map.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 16, 2008 9:53 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

More than 115 thousand tones of wheat and barely corps marketed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kut, 15 June 2008 (Al-Sabaah)
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Marketed quantities of wheat and barely corps in Kut, Sewera and Rusafa have reached to 115500 thousand tones, as Kut agriculture staffs finished fighting Dubaas and Humera insects in more than 24 thousand acres.

Director of Waset agriculture said that wheat quantities are 115 thousand tones in addition to 100 tones marketed to Iraqi company of seeds, while barely quantities are 400 tones which is small one and this due to the usage of these corps by farmers to feed their livestock.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 16, 2008 10:47 AM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Carole,

Have fun fishing..... I've always thought fishing made it respectable, and guilt-free, for hardworking people to enjoy doing nothing all day!

-- June 16, 2008 10:49 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraqi foreign minister: Al-Sadr threats 'unacceptable'
Sun June 15, 2008

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari on Sunday sternly rebuked Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's latest threats.. Zebari said on CNN that al-Sadr's Friday claim that he is establishing a new fighting force to battle U.S. troops in Iraq "unacceptable."

"The Americans are there with the consent and the approval of the Iraqi elected government," he said. "Americans are there. They're our friends. They're sacrificing. So, therefore, whatever happens to them, actually, we should feel that pain. And this is unacceptable."

Iraqi and Western intelligence sources have said Iran pressured al-Sadr over the past few months to promote its interests, which include getting the United States out of Iraq. Al-Sadr's letter didn't explain why he decided to issue his command.

Over the weekend, Iraqi government troops prepared a new push against "outlaws" in the southern province of Maysan, north of Basra near the Iranian border. They may trade medium and heavy weapons and explosives for cash rewards and amnesty until Wednesday. The deal is only open to suspects "who do not have the blood of innocent people on their hands," an official in the prime minister's office told CNN.

The move is Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's latest effort to stamp out militants and establish authority in an oil-rich region of Iraq where rival Shiite parties are battling for control. Al-Sadr's followers accused the government of trying to weaken their movement ahead of the much-anticipated provincial elections later this year.

Zebari said he expects Iraq to reach a long-term security agreement with the United States by the end of July, waving off suggestions negotiations are deadlocked.

"We made a great deal of progress on finalizing the strategic framework agreement," he said. Negotiators have shown "flexibility" on key issues, such as how much authority U.S. troops would have to operate outside their bases and whether they could use those installations to move offensives against any other nations in the region, Zebari said.

He said Iraq has "made it absolutely clear that Iraq will not be used for any offensive actions or for any attacks against any of Iraq's neighbors."

Maysan province and its capital of Amara are believed to house Mehdi Army members who fled Basra and Baghdad after the earlier push. But the official in the prime minister's office said the Maysan operation is targeting "outlaws and criminals;" not a specific group or party, and is intended to impose law in the province.

That point was echoed by al-Askari, who on Sunday insisted the new operation was not a military one. He emphasized that it was unlike the two operations in Basra, in Baghdad's Sadr City and a third, in the northern city of Mosul, that Iraqi security forces carried out with the support of American troops

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/15/iraq.main/index.html

-- June 16, 2008 12:42 PM


mattuk wrote:

By Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD, June 16 (Reuters) - Iraq has opened a tender to drill two deep exploration wells at large oilfields in the south of the country, Iraq's Oil Exploration Co. said on Monday.

The state-run company published a notice on its website and in Iraq's official al-Sabah newspaper inviting bids to drill two wells in the South Rumaila and Luhais oilfields around Basra.

"The contractor is to supply a heavy capacity drilling rig with all the requirements and tools to complete these two wells," the notice said.

The expected total depth of the wells is 6,500 metres, it said. The company set July 27 as the closing date for offers.

Iraq is seeking to increase its oil production in order to raise badly-needed funds for reconstruction after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Iraq boosted oil exports to a post-war high of more than 2 million barrels per day in May. Officials attributed this to improved security along northern pipelines and increased production in both its southern and northern fields.

Iraqi oilfields are pumping more than 2.5 million bpd, Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani told Reuters in an interview this month. (Editing by Tim Cocks)

-- June 16, 2008 1:01 PM


Sara wrote:

McCain: 'Obama was wrong'

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/06/15/sot.mccain.iraq.cnn

Also a good overview of Iraq and US relations.
And the note that US forces will return in victory, not shame (under McCain's Presidency).

-- June 16, 2008 1:02 PM


Sara wrote:

With deepest regrets I post this.. (seeing as I do, the timeline catching up).
Carole and board - I believe this is what I saw.. A bomb in which,
Quote:

a blast wave from a sphere of conventional explosives squeezes inward with tremendous force to compress a ball of bomb fuel, starting the chain reaction and the atomic explosion. A nuclear official in Europe familiar with the Khan investigation said the new design was powerful but miniaturized — using about half the uranium fuel of the older design to produce a greater explosive force.

The target.. is the US, with many of these.
The "American Hiroshima" the terrorists refer to, often.
It is easy to hide.. or bring over the border by/for sleeper cell suicide bombers.

I wish America would repent now.. before they are deployed.
Then God would give the intelligence community the break they need to prevent it.
Again, it won't happen under President Bush.. but America better consider carefully who is in the Whitehouse.
That inexperienced puppy Obama won't be able to handle such an intense leadership call.
It just does NOT make sense to put at the helm someone with no experience.
Thank God the world is in God's hands, not man's.. or there would be no hope for a positive outcome for the survivors.

Sara.

===

Officials fear design of nuclear bomb went to others
By David E. Sanger and William J. Broad
Published: June 16, 2008

WASHINGTON: Four years after Abdul Qadeer Khan, the leader of the world's largest atomic black market, was put under house arrest and his operation declared over, international inspectors and Western officials are confronting a new mystery left by him, this time over who may have received blueprints for a sophisticated and compact nuclear weapon found on his network's computers.

Working in secret for two years, investigators have tracked the digitized blueprints to Khan computers in Switzerland, Dubai, Malaysia and Thailand. The blueprints are electronic and rapidly reproducible for creating a weapon that is relatively small and easy to hide, making it potentially attractive to terrorists.

The revelation this weekend that the Khan operation even had such a bomb blueprint underscores the questions that remain about what Khan, a Pakistani metallurgist and father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, was selling and to whom. It also raises the possibility that he may still have sensitive material in his possession.

Yet even as inspectors and intelligence officials press their investigation of Khan, officials in Pakistan have declared the scandal over and have discussed the possibility of setting him free. In recent weeks, American officials have privately warned the new government in Pakistan about the dangers of doing so.

"We've been very direct with them that releasing Khan could cause a world of trouble," a senior administration official who has been involved in the effort said last week. "The problem with Pakistan these days is that you never know who is making the decision — the army, the intelligence agencies, the president or the new government."

The illicit nuclear network run by Khan was broken up in early 2004. President George W. Bush declared that shattering the operation was a major intelligence coup for the United States. Since then, evidence has emerged that the network sold uranium enrichment technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya. Investigators are still pursuing leads that he may have done business with other countries as well.

Khan is an expert in centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium for bomb fuel, and much of the technology he sold involved enrichment. But it was only in recent days that officials disclosed that they had found the electronic design for a bomb itself among material seized from some of Khan's top lieutenants, a Swiss family, the Tinners.

The same design documents were found in computers in three other locations connected to Khan operatives, according to a senior foreign diplomat involved in the investigation. American officials and inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency say they have been unable to determine if the weapon blueprints were sold to Iran or the smuggling ring's other customers.

The bomb blueprints bear a strong resemblance to weapons tested by Pakistan a decade ago, said two senior diplomats involved in the investigation. Pakistani officials have balked at providing much information about the newly revealed warhead design, just as they have refused to allow the CIA or international atomic inspectors to directly interrogate Khan, who is still considered a national hero in Pakistan for helping it become a nuclear weapons state.

Pakistani officials insist that Khan, as leader of a uranium enrichment program, had no weapons access. But this is the second weapons design found in his smuggling network. The first was for an unwieldy but effective Chinese design from the mid-1960s that Libya acknowledged obtaining from the Khan network before it surrendered its bomb-making equipment in 2003.

Both the new and old designs exploit the principle of implosion, in which a blast wave from a sphere of conventional explosives squeezes inward with tremendous force to compress a ball of bomb fuel, starting the chain reaction and the atomic explosion. A nuclear official in Europe familiar with the Khan investigation said the new design was powerful but miniaturized — using about half the uranium fuel of the older design to produce a greater explosive force.

"Pakistan cannot put the big China design on any of its rockets," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information is classified. "It's too big." A smaller warhead created from the new design, he added, is "more efficient and easier to hide," meaning that one day it might become a "terrorist issue."

China first exploded the old design in 1966, nuclear experts say, and Pakistan fired the miniaturized version in 1998.

Nuclear experts said a warhead built from the new design is small enough to fit atop a family of medium-range missiles that derives from North Korea's Nodong class of missiles. Those missiles include Pakistan's Ghauri and Iran's Shahab. All are about four feet wide, and any warhead atop them must, by definition, be smaller.

In interviews in Vienna, Islamabad and Washington, officials have said that the weapons design was far more sophisticated than the blueprints discovered in Libya in 2003, when Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi gave up his country's nuclear weapons program. The design is electronic, they said, making it easy to copy — and they have no idea how many copies, if any, are circulating.

On Sunday, Bush's national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, said that the administration remained concerned about the possibility that additional plans had been disseminated, but he did not address any of the latest revelations, which were reported by The Washington Post and The New York Times. "We're very concerned about the A.Q. Khan network," he told reporters traveling with Bush from Paris to London.

The existence of the compact bomb design began to become public in recent weeks after Switzerland announced that it had destroyed a huge stockpile of documents, including weapons designs, that were found in computers belonging to Friedrich Tinner and his two sons, Marco and Urs, all arrested as part of the Khan investigation.

Switzerland's president, Pascal Couchepin, said in late May that the government destroyed the documents to keep atomic materials from "getting into the hands of a terrorist organization or an unauthorized state."

Two former Bush administration officials said they believed the Tinners had provided information to the CIA while the father and two sons were still working for Khan and that some of their information helped American and British officials intercept shipments of centrifuges en route to Libya in 2003.

When news of that interception became public and Libya turned its $100 million program over to American and atomic energy agency officials, President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan forced Khan to issue a vague confession and then placed him under house arrest. Khan has since renounced that confession in Pakistani and Western news media, saying he made it only to save Pakistan greater embarrassment.

It was not until 2005 that officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is based in Vienna, finally cracked the hard drives on the Khan computers recovered around the world. And as they sifted through files and images on the hard drives, investigators found tons of material — orders for equipment, names and places where the Khan network operated, even old love letters.

"There was stuff about dealing with Iranians in 2003, about how to avoid intelligence agents," said one official who had reviewed it. But the most important document was a digitized design for a nuclear bomb, one that investigators quickly recognized as Pakistani.

"It was plain where this came from," a senior official of the atomic energy agency said. "But the Pakistanis want to argue that the Khan case is closed, and so they have said very little."

In public statements, Pakistani officials have insisted that the Khan "incident," as they call it, is now history, and they publicly declared nearly two years ago that their investigations are over.

A senior Pakistani official said in April that the information provided by the atomic energy agency was "vague and incomplete," and he insisted that because Khan's laboratories specialized in the manufacture of the equipment needed to enrich uranium, "He was not involved in weapons designs."

But atomic energy agency investigators and American intelligence officials say they have little doubt that he was the source of the digitized bomb design. "Clearly, someone had tried to modernize it, to improve the electronics," one said. "There were handwritten references to the electronics, and the question is, who was working on this?"

The officials said that parts of the design were coded so that they could be transferred quickly to an automated manufacturing system.

David E. Sanger reported from Washington and William J. Broad from New York. Steven Lee Myers contributed reporting from London.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/16/asia/16nuke.php

"There was stuff about dealing with Iranians in 2003, about how to avoid intelligence agents," said one official who had reviewed it. But the most important document was a digitized design for a nuclear bomb...

In light of this, and the comments recently to Japan by Iran about a world which will soon be without the US..
Do you think that such comments are truly merely idle threats?

Sara.

-- June 16, 2008 1:34 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

The Failure of Iran

Iran seems a real problem to the United States right now. Whenever IEDs are set off by militia groups in Iraq, and Americans are killed, we are reminded that Iranian connections are often behind the attacks, as Iranians funnel money and weapons, into Iraq, to various groups opposing American presence, in the region. Iran publically lies about this, of course. And Iran continues to lie about it's nuclear intentions. America may or may not end up in a direct war with Iran, but in the long run, but even if America decides not to attack Iran, the theocracy in Iran is finished, in the long run.

A lot of political commentators, both left and right, acknowledge that one of the main beneficiaries of the war in Iraq seems to be Iran. To some degree, this is true. Iran and Iraq fought a bitter and very bloody war, over resources, a couple of decades ago. Had Saddam succeeded, he would have had control over the vast oil fields in southern Iran. Iraq was always a strong regional threat to Iran, and the American invasion of Iraq has left that country temporarily unable to repel external threats.

And Iran continues to be a large part of the Dinar puzzle. Whether the Dinar succeeds, or not, depends in large part, what happens between America and Iran.

Of course, if America sticks with helping Iraq, and helps Iraq build up it's army, in a few years Iraq will be fully capable of fending off an attack from Iran, and the Iranian advantage will disappear. That's part of the reason Iran is putting so much effort into destabilizing Iraq. That country is at it's weakest it has been in a very long time, so Iran temporarily has the advantage, and is trying to take advantage of that weakness. And, if if Obama is elected, and America, with a new pollyanna foreign policy, foolishly pulls it's troops out, a nuclear equipped Iran just might decide that the oil fields of Iraq, now thought to be the largest in the world, even larger than Saudi Arabia; Iran might decide to come up with a pretext for invading Iraq. And if they do, what would America do at that point? Risk nuclear war? America is already pulling out, after 5,000 American soldiers have died. Under a President Obama, America might just decide, it's not worth the bother, just let Iran control a good chunk of the world's energy supply, and pay them whatever they ask.

And, of course, if Iran controls Iraq, then obviously the Iraqi Dinar would not be worth the cost of the paper it's printed on, and your investment, and mine, would be worthless.

Rob N may be correct. Under these circumstances, President Bush may decide, before the end of his term, to bomb Iran. We'll see.

But even if America does not militarily attack Iran, the days of the theocracy in Iran are numbered. That's why Iran is trying so desperately hard to get America to leave Iraq.

Iran publically pretends to be a democracy. Even Bill Clinton was taken in, and has made favourable political comments about their political system. The man is ignorant. Iran is a sham, pretend democracy.

An unelected clerical body known as the Guardian Coucil decides which candidates will be allowed to run, for any party, for the Iranian parliament, and the presidential race. Those Iranians whose views do not coincide with the radical views of the clerics in Iran, are not even allowed to run.

When the Ayatollah Khomeini took over from the Shah, he put in place a doctrine of absolute rule by the clergy, called "velayet-e-faqih", which is a long winded theological rationalization, based on the Q'ran, as to why is the will of Allah, that cleric retain all real power, in Iran.

This absolute rule does not allow for any dissent, or difference of opinion. Iran has a horrible human rights record, and has a history of brutally crushing all opposition, outright murdering, without trial, or public acknowledgement, thousands of Iranians who oppose the regime. Mass executions have long propped up the regime. To this day, a climate of fear and repression exist in Iran. Free speech is not encouraged.

Faud Ebani found this out. He was a teenage boy who got interested in politics, in Iran. His views were contrary to the ruling elite. He tried distributing a newspaper, with views opposing the mullahs. He was sentenced to 20 years in prison for selling newspapers.

He was not allowed to even serve his term, but was instead horribly tortured, and eventually died in prison.

Although communism was a godless political system, based originally on atheism, it shares much in common with theocratic political rule in Iran. Both systems had elites that were utterly convinced that only they had the real truth about life, God, the ordering of society, and reality itself. Both used mass torture and executions, to control the population, and to keep their rule going. Both systems allowed for absolutely no free thought that might challenge the views of the elite. Both systems believed in absolute power, of the supposed perfect elite, who were never to be challenged.

Which means both systems are fatally flawed. The truth is, any political system, that at it's core, believes that a certain select group of human beings, are so perfect, so inspired, that they have all the right answers, and can never be challenged, or questioned, is utterly foolish.

The truth is, no human, or group of humans, are perfect. To suppose that they are, goes perhaps, beyond even complete foolishness, and into some form of idolatry. Only God is perfect. To assume that any human being is perfect is not only blasphemy, but complete and utter nonsense, from a practical point of view. To base an entire political system on such a dubious principal means eventually that political system will self-destruct.

It will self destruct because it is a system that is inherently flawed. For, if I suppose that I have all the answers to any question, then two things are at work here.

First, I have to be unbelievably arrogant. After all, if I know the absolute truth, in a fanatical way, without a chance of doubt, that means I must be completely superior to all other humans. That means I don't listen, I don't think, I don't absorb information well.

And if I don't take in information well, due to my arrogance, it means I end up, quite ignorant. And arrogant, ignorant people, so stupid things, that cause opposition and resentment from other people, and arrogant, ignorant people, end up having to defend themselves, often in cruel ways, projecting their arrogance on other, supposedly less enlightened people, through violence. Arrogant, ignorant people end up having many enemies. When opposition arises, internal or external to their country, their self-righteous arrogance makes them defensive, and they crush unbelievers, whether in the communistic world, or the world dominated by the arrogant mullahs.

Such a challenge, to the cleric's power, arose from Saddam Hussein, at one time, who tried to invade Iran.

Anyhow, this unchecked power, over ordinary people, leads to a cycle of violence. And it leads to a general acceptance of retributive violence, where, when one group overthrows another, both groups, whatever their philosophies, share core beliefs about the rightness of their own positions, and the justifications to be a law unto themselves, and decide right and wrong, and to severely punish opponents. This, of course, keeps the cycle of violence going, as the new group eventually self-destruct, only to be replaced by another new group, that eventually self destructs, and so on......

That's why I prefer democracy. It's founded on humility. It says all humans are fagile. We are all weak. We cannot be relied upon to be perfect. So, instead, we have a standard we all aspire to, which is always beyond any given human, a standard of perfection. It's called the rule of law. It's based on the notion that perfection is beyond us all, but we should still aspire to it. This seems to me, like it is a sound view, of life.

And since all humans are imperfect, and since through experience, our culture has found that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely, we have mechanisms in place to change leaders, every now and then. This keeps our political system, not perfect, by any means, but certainly better, than dictatorships, like communism or theocratic dictatorships. We have found that political leaders, like babies, need changing, every now and then, otherwise we have to put up with the........

Iranian law is based on a 7th century interpretation of a holy book. Much of that interpretation is out of step with the modern world. In Sharia Law, a woman is worth half of what a man is worth. As women get more and more educated, each generation, in Iran, they will fight that interpretation, which degrades them.

This degrading of women leads to horrendous results. Leila Fathi was an 11 year old Iranian girl, who was out picking flowers, on a rural mountainside, one day, when she was taken and raped by 3 Iranian men. The primary suspect hung himself. They two remaining men were tried. Under Islamic Law, a family where there was a victum of violence, gets to choose between financial compensation, or punishment for the perpetrators. Leila's family, who very very poor, and uneducated, chose financial compensation.

Well, it turns out, the judge had to, according to Islamic law, weigh in the balance, the relative worth of the little girl, the value of her life, in cash, and the value of the two men, measured in cash, as well as take into consideration the cost of executing the two men, as part of the overall financial compensation package. And the cost of hanging the two men would have to be deducted from the final financial settlement, the family of the little girl, were to receive.

Well, it turns out, under Islamic law, that the value of the girl was so low, that when you deducted the cost of executing the two men, it ended up that the girl's parents owed the state a lot of money! Can you believe it? Men are worth so much more than women, under Iranian Sharia Law, that that's the way the numbers crunch.

In Islamic culture, a family's standing in the community is based on the sexual fidelity of women, in the family. If a girl has sex before marriage, even if she is brutally raped, against her will, the family loses it's honor, and must recover it. So the girl's father tried to recover his family's honor by pursuing justice against the men. When the Islamic state stuck him with a bill, for the execution of the two men who raped his daughter, he had no money, so he tried to sell his kidney, to come up with the money.

At that point, thankfully, Doctors Without Borders, an organization of heroic doctors who help people around the globe, stepped in, and helped out the family, financially.

True story.

And it's indicative of the mess that is Iran. Women who are deemed to be enemies of the state are often raped. Morality police patrol the streets, getting involved in policing the private details of people's lives, including the clothes they wear. Women could be sent to jail for wearing nail polish. Women have to wear the proper headcoverings, of the exact correct length, as prescribed by the clerics. For a long time, it was illegal for a woman to sing, publically, in Iran. She could be sent to jail. The clerics had decided that singing, as well as musical instruments, were evil. And if her husband decided to take an extra wife or two, she had to put up with another woman living in her house.

And if the couple weren't getting along, he could get a divorce very easily, just by saying "I divorce you" three times, and signing a paper. Then, he gets the kids, all the money, the house, she gets nothing. And in Islamic culture, a divorced woman is worthless. And, under Islamic law, men can get "temporary wives". This means a man goes to a cleric, tells him he needs a wife for an hour, the cleric fills out a form, the man pays the cleric a fee, and justified by his religion, goes and has his fun......

However, most women in Iran are too tired and busy to complain. The clerics made birth control illegal, and Iranians marry young, so almost all women have large families, which absorbs all their time and energy.

How do Iranians like all this? Many don't. A large chunk of the educated class, have migrated elsewhere. Four million well educated Iranians have left their home country, and settled into the West.

Opposition to the regime grows. The regime, ever defensive, has taken to killing writers, and pop stars. An Iranian writer, Akbar Ganji, a practicing Muslim, has written, A Manifesto for Republicanism, which calls for a separation of mosque and state, and replacing it with a secular democracy, where religious belief is largely a private matter. If there is to be peace between America and Iran, the reformers will have to eventually win. When the Islamic system is ended and reformed, there can be peace.

This process of ending Islamism is being helped by the stinking and greedy corruption of the ruling elite in Iran. The clerics have become incredibly corrupt. The Shah of Iran was thrown out of office, decades ago, because he used the country's finances as his personal bank account, while the people sufferered and went hungry. The mullahs promised political reform, and an end to this sort of theft.

They lied.

They have become unbelievably rich, and corrupt, controlling Iranian oil money.

There is hope for the future. Iran has a young population 70% of the population is under 30. Most younger Iranians are far more open minded, and open to ideas of freedom and democracy, than the older generation. For over a decade, opposition to the mullahs has been growing, even as it is brutally crushed.

President Bush is supporting the reformist opposition in Iran. In 2003, when there were student demonstrations at Tehran University, for more freedom, and President Bush said, "This is the beginning of people expressing themselves toward a free Iran, which I think is positive." President Reagan had a similar attitude, and once sent the Ayatollah a gift, of a personally autographed Bible.

An Iranian writer and judge, and believing Muslim, recently won the Nobel Prize for Peace, and returned to Tehran. She is a leader in the reform movement in Iran, that would like to see a moderate interpretation of Islam, that accepts democracy and freedom. Her book, Iran Awakening, is an excellent read. Awaiting at the airport was an enthusiastic crowd numbering in the hundreds of thousands. It was the largest crowd assembled in Iran since 1979, when the Ayatollah Khomeini arrived back from France, to head up the Iranian Revolution.

There's hope for the future.....

-- June 16, 2008 1:49 PM


tim bitts wrote:

I should have included the name, toward the end of my post, of the Iranian judge and writer, who won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Her name is Shirin Ebani.

Her book is Iran Awakening.

-- June 16, 2008 1:52 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Mattuk,

I think DNO is a good bet. I have shares in a different company, that is also looking for oil, (and has found lots of it) in northern Iraq. I think DNO will do very well.

-- June 16, 2008 2:29 PM


tim bitts wrote:

One final note on Iran. When Shirin Ebadi was greeted at the Tehran Airport, by hundreds of thousands of cheering Iranians, who support changing their system to make it fit into the modern world, there to greet her, at the airport, and to place a wreath around her neck, was the granddaughter of the Ayatollah Khomeini.


Things may not seem like they change sometimes, but they do, slowly....

-- June 16, 2008 2:46 PM


Sara wrote:

The man the MSM says is dispised overseas.. President Bush.. here consolidates support from the UK, Italy, France and Germany against the threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorist Iran. Quite a diplomacy coup.. from a person who knows what the issues are and how important to the world winning this war truly is.

Wait til the MSM sees how wrong they are about who is going to be in the Whitehouse.
Like this story proves, the MSM is out of touch with reality and in their self-created fantasy bubble which contains only their own view.

===

U.S./U.K.: Brown Backs Bush On Iran, Iraq, And Afghanistan
Monday, June 16, 2008

U.S. President George W. Bush began the last day of his farewell tour of Europe with good news from Britain's prime minister.

Gordon Brown said London would impose further economic sanctions on Iran to help persuade it to suspend its nuclear program, and he promised to set no timelines for withdrawals of his country's forces from Iraq.

"If Iran continues to ignore United [Nations] resolutions, to ignore our offers of partnership, we have no choice but to intensify sanctions. And so today Britain will urge Europe and Europe will agree to take further sanctions against Iran," Brown said at a joint news conference with Bush.

"First of all, we will take action today that will freeze the overseas assets of the biggest bank in Iran, the Bank Melli, and second, action will start today for a new phase of sanctions on oil and gas," he added.

Washington wants to build European support for new sanctions against Tehran if it rejects incentives to give up uranium enrichment.

Bush's meetings in London come as Iran on June 14 ruled out suspending uranium enrichment, despite a renewed offer by the five UN permanent Security Council members and Germany to help it develop a civilian nuclear program in exchange for abandoning its enrichment efforts.

Iran has now got its answer from Brown, underlining support that Bush has already received earlier in his trip from Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. All have said they share Washington's goal of assuring Tehran does not obtain nuclear weapons.

The U.S. and European leaders hope this will add pressure on Iran to soften its approach toward the incentives offer or build international support for a third round of sanctions at the United Nations.

'No Artificial Timetables' In Iraq

Also on Bush's agenda in London is Iraq. In an interview with a British newspaper, "The Observer," on June 15, Bush urged London not to withdraw its troops from southern Iraq until the security situation there improves.

At the June 16 news conference, Bush said most of the 30,000 U.S. troops sent to Iraq last year to mount the so-called "surge" will have been withdrawn by next month. Further pullouts, he said, will depend on the evolving state of Iraq's security.

Again, Brown said the British approach to withdrawals would be the same.

"In Iraq, there is a job to be done, and we will continue to do the job, and there's going to be no artificial timetable," Brown said. "And the reason is that we are making progress, making progress in the Iraqis themselves being trained up to run their own armed forces and, of course, to be the policemen and -women in their areas."

Brown and Bush also spoke of Afghanistan... Brown promised to send more troops, though he didn't say how many or how soon.

"The reason is that we want to help the Afghans train up their own army and their own police forces and the reason is we want to have better equipment in Afghanistan in the future," Brown said.

"And therefore there is going to be reconfiguration of our troops, there will be some coming out and some more going in and overall increasing the numbers so that we have the highest level of troops in Afghanistan."

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/06/ca8906d0-cd58-4377-8b47-5d0ecf4bc701.html

-- June 16, 2008 4:51 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts;

I certainly agree with you there that there are voices who wish reform in Iran. And also that good will eventually prevail. :)

However, as with Hitler, the wrong moves politically can make the difference as to whether the conflict is very long and takes many, many lives.. or relatively short with a relatively good outcome, as we saw happen with Iraq.

Looking back in history, we can see how they could have headed off at the pass Hitler's war machine by not appeasing him. Obama is the same appeasement choice given to the world again. History repeats itself. The cost of appeasement was millions of lives in World War two. I like the Jewish saying, "Never again!" :)

I openly admire President Bush's grasp on history and his moves to make the world more peaceful and secure. As I said, he has a great reward and treasure in heaven for the persecution he has taken by the Dems and MSM press for the stand he has taken... and even the opposition of the American people themselves. "So persecuted they the prophets which were before you.."

Mat 5:10 Blessed are they which are persecuted for righteousness' sake: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Mat 5:11 Blessed are you, when men shall revile you, and persecute you, and shall say all manner of evil against you falsely, for my sake.
Mat 5:12 Rejoice, and be exceeding glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so persecuted they the prophets which were before you.

Such words were written with men like President Bush in mind.
He has done well.. and little credit is given to him as it should be.
Think this news will change his popularity ratings?

===

Bush enlists Berlusconi aid on Iran, Afghanistan
Thu Jun 12, 2008
By Matt Spetalnick and Robin Pomeroy

ROME (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush won reassurances from his old ally Silvio Berlusconi on Thursday that Italy will help pressure Iran over its nuclear program and take more of a frontline military role in Afghanistan.

The West fears Iran's uranium enrichment activities could be used to build a nuclear bomb. Iran says its program is only for power generation to meet the needs of its growing economy.

Bush stressed his preference for using diplomatic means but repeated "all options are on the table", a refrain repeated in his European tour to convince Iran that Washington will consider military action to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Bush, on the third stop of a week-long farewell tour of Europe, was also assured by Berlusconi, a supporter of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, that Italy would relax a ban on using its troops in a combat role in the NATO mission in Afghanistan.

The personal sympathy between the pair was evident in their smiles and hand clasping before their talks in Villa Madama, a Renaissance villa designed by Raphael for the Medici family.

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSL1262938120080612

===

Bush Meets With Berlusconi in Visit to Italy
Thursday, June 12, 2008

At the elegant hillside Villa Aurelia, part of the American Academy in Rome, Bush met with Italian entrepreneurs and encouraged young people to come get the "firsthand truth about America." He disputed what he called misinformation and propaganda about the United States.

"We're a compassionate, open country that cares about people ... We love the entrepreneurial spirit," Bush said.

Slovenia and Germany, the first two stops on Bush's trip, were devoid of demonstrators. That was evidence that trans-Atlantic relations, fractured over the U.S.-led invasion in Iraq, are on the mend, that European leaders have moved beyond their anger over the war.

More than 2,000 Italian troops are deployed as part of the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan.

Italy, along with Germany, France and Spain, have their troops in northern Afghanistan. Bush's wife, first lady Laura Bush, on Wednesday pledged $10.2 billion on behalf of the United States to Afghanistan's reconstruction. She spoke at an international donors conference in Paris, where the president himself will be headed on Friday.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,365824,00.html

-- June 16, 2008 5:21 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,
You are so funny! But soooo right!

I have to rationalize to make myself shun the guilt of " doing absloutely nothing!"

Have met alot of nice people who have learned the same art of doing absolutely nothing.

For someone like myself, I find that after a few hours, I want to start sweeping the sand.

I've bought enough outdoor equipment to make my own kitchen seem obsolete! LOL

The real reward is some valuable distraction and some wonderful one on one time with my fatherless grandson! A poor substitute, but you would be surprised what cut off jeans, a sweatshirt, and a cap can do to an old lady who is determined to catch a fish!

Carole

-- June 16, 2008 5:26 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

It is very serious and perilous times coming for an unrepentant America.
Today, at 6pm, here in Caliornia, it looks like same sex marriage licenses will be issued.
Don't be surprised at our future here.

You are right God is in control.....and we already know the end of the story, as given to us in scripture.

Our rewards are not promised here! Thank God, cause, if this life were the end of our story....we would be without hope!

Pray without ceasing, and in everything with thanksgiving and supplication let your requests be made know to God......who is exceedingly willing and able.......

Thank you for your unwavering faith and witness and your encouragement to all of us here.

Carole

-- June 16, 2008 5:33 PM


Sara wrote:

Iran withdraws $75 billion from Europe: report
Mon Jun 16, 2008

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has withdrawn around $75 billion from Europe to prevent the assets from being blocked under threatened new sanctions over Tehran's disputed nuclear ambitions, an Iranian weekly said.

"Part of Iran's assets in European banks have been converted to gold and shares and another part has been transferred to Asian banks," Mohsen Talaie, deputy foreign minister in charge of economic affairs, was quoted as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSDAH63024720080616

-- June 16, 2008 5:54 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Though still bullish on the Dinar I am not confident of the passage of either the SOFA or HCL before Parlimentary recess in July. I think we have a longer wait ahead of us. I am also loosing confidence a significant change in the Dinar's exchange rate will take place this year.

The future of the Dinar may hinges on many variables coming together. I have mentioned the SOFA agreement because this will lead to Iraqi Soverignty. I have also mentioned the HCL because this will lead to the PSAs and eventually to the Petro Dinar.

I must also mention Iran and the 2008 Presidential Election. Can the President accomplish the completion of the SOFA agreement and a military strike on Iran; yes, but it will be challenging to do so. I agree with Sara, the citizens of the United States must me mindful of who the elect as the President in November. A John McCain Presidency means a march toward Iraqi peace and prosperity.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 16, 2008 5:55 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara,

I agree with you, political mistakes or correct actions, will make reform in Iran long, or quick. With Obama as President, it will take longer.

That's why I said, in a previous post, that if Obama is elected, all bets are off.

When the Ayatollah Khomeini took power, the Iranian regime was militarily very weak. It could not defend itself, had America decided to get rid of the Ayatollah. If Reagan had been President at that time, Iran would have never dared to take Americans hostage, at the American Embassy in Tehran. Yet Khomeini publically said at the time, "America can do nothing". This was not false bravado. It was really an accurate estimate of the character of the American President at the time, Jimmy Carter. The Ayatollah thought Carter was weak, and a fool. I don't often agree with radical Muslim leaders, but on this one I do. Reagan, by contrast, was a strong leader. As you recall, the American hostages, after languishing for hundreds of days, were released on the very same day as Ronald Reagan took the oath of office, to became President. Coincidence? Hardly. That's why leadership is so important, as you emphasized. And I agree with you. I think Obama would be a disaster on foreign policy. He's weak. He's an appeaser. That's the last thing America needs, at this time.

I think President Bush is headed for short term continuing unpopularity, and long term greatness. Harry Truman had the same fate, as you recall. Both did unpopular things, militarily. Both were considered failed Presidents, at the time they were in office. It's only now, half a century after his presidency, that Harry S. Truman is being credited, for being a very good President.

You asked, would President Bush's popularity increase?

Doing right, I'm sure you'd agree, is not a popularity contest. President Bush, as a man of principle, understands this as well, and is more than willing to sacrifice his short term reputation, for the long term good of the world. He's a man of quality.

One Iranian I saw in a documentary once said that he wished America would come in, kill their leaders, and not occupy the country, but leave immediately to let Iran to sort things out. Sometimes I wonder if he was right.

How long Iranian theocracy will last is anyone's guess. I would say this, though: It'll be a lot shorter than otherwise, if John Macain gets elected. A lot of people don't like him, I know. But the way I think about it is, he's almost a Democrat at home, but a Republican abroad. And that seems to be the best choice, among the two candidates, at this time.

John McCain will be very, very tough on Iran.

Speaking of which: I, for one, wish American Presidents would be a lot harder, in their criticism of countries like Iran.

That's why I said many critical things of their society.

There is an awful lot to criticise, in these countries, but unfortunately, the mainstream press, caught up in the false perceptions of political correctness, find it very hard to criticize Muslim cultures. It seems most of the criticism, in the media, is directed at our own societies, in the West, rather than in criticizing the shortcomings of failed cultures. I think this is a mistake, and I think American Presidents should take it upon themselves to more often bluntly criticise other states, that are based on false ideas. American Presidents also seem reluctant to outline the many failures and inadequacies, of their enemies. That's why I like Reagan so much. He was an exception. He came out and bluntly and plainly, yet with elegance, of language, declared that the Soviet Union was "an evil empire". He was attacked by liberals for saying so, but he was correct, and vindicated by history, and time.

America has the moral high ground. What they are doing is right for the world. American Presidents need to do a better job of convincing the world of the moral rightness of what they are doing.

I'm hoping for a peaceful outcome, with Iran, but I don't really know how it will turn out. It could end up being a war. For all I know, Iran will do some stupid, stupid things, that force the hand of the American President, and the rule of the clerics could be a lot quicker than I suspect. So, in politics, you never know what will happen. So if President Bush ends up bombing Iran, I won't be too surprised.

-- June 16, 2008 6:10 PM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, Carole.
Very kind words. :)

There are dire consequences for flaunting the will of the Almighty.
For now, "It is always darkest before the dawn"..
But certainly, in time, there will be dawn.

Psa 30:5 For His anger endures but a moment; in His favor is life: weeping may endure for a night, but joy comes in the morning.

I look forward to the morning.

Sara.

-- June 16, 2008 6:50 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Rob N:

I feel confident a Status of Forces Agreement will be reached. President Bush is committed to it.

And on the Iraqi side, the Iraqi elite are well aware of their precarious position. They are in the final stages of beating off a challenge to their power, from various radical groups, and their very lives depend on a secure Iraq. The future security of the people who stand to benefit the most from a prosperous Iraq, depends very much on SOFA. If America were to leave right now, and declare a disinterest to be involved in any conflict that would endanger Iraq, then Iran would swoop right in. It will take several years, at least, till Iraq is secure and strong enough, militarily, to fend off Iranian aggression. Iraqis don't want to be second fiddle, in a Greater Iran. So, while it's true they really don't want American forces, in their country, it's also true they are smart enough to realize that they are somewhat dependent on the American Army for protection right now, till they get stronger. The smart thing for them to do right now, would be to continue to build up their own power, with American help.

All this means the Iraqis are committed to it, by necessity.

An arrangement will be reached, agreeable to both sides, that will be a major milestone, toward a secure and prosperous Iraq, which will lead to a Dinar RV.

I'm confident a SOFA will be reached. I'm still bullish on the Dinar.

-- June 16, 2008 10:28 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq, US to sign security deal July

Washington, June 16: Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari said on Sunday that US-Iraqi negotiations for a long-term security pact were not dead and that despite difficulties, a deal would be signed "by the end of July."

"These talks are ongoing. They’re not dead," Mr Zebari said of negotiations to decide the future of the US military presence in Iraq after the current UN mandate expires in December. "Definitely, there hasn’t been an impasse," he told CNN.

Mr Zebari said Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s statement on Friday in Amman that Status of Forces Agreement talks were at an impasse had been "corrected and clarified."

http://www.asianage.com/presentation/leftnavigation/news/international/iraq,-us-to-sign-security-deal-july.aspx

In the Aljazeera coverage of the issue, they even said not July but June for finalizing the deal:

MONDAY, JUNE 16, 2008

Zebari said his country was making major progress in finalising the deal by the end of June and the US was showing "great flexibility".

Zebari's comments contrast with remarks last week by Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, who said that talks with the US on the new long-term security pact had reached a "dead end" as the US had made demands that "hugely infringe" on Iraq.

However, David Satterfield, the US state department's senior adviser on Iraq, said last week that negotiations on the agreement were on schedule.

Zebari said the new agreement would also state that Iraq cannot be used for "any offensive actions" against "any" of Iraq's neighbouring countries, in reference to ongoing US tensions with Iran over its nuclear programme.

However, the US would be granted control of Iraqi airspace below about 9,700m, he said.

He added that the deal would not be binding for the next US president following elections in November, and that any new administration would have the right to review or terminate the agreement as it saw fit.

And the Iraqi foreign minister said he had spoken to Barack Obama, the US Democratic presidential candidate, who had assured him that, if elected, he would make "no reckless or drastic" decision to withdraw US troops from Iraq.

"Any decision for a timetable would be made through close consultation," he said.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/6C6A9335-F34F-46B7-97F5-E770FFCD4674.htm

-- June 17, 2008 1:18 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Kalimat Telecom Announces Iraq Network Launch
PUKmedia 17-06-2008 11:35:42

Kalimat Telecom on Monday announced the launch of its services in Iraq. Speaking at a press conference held at the Crowne Plaza on Monday, President and CEO of Kalimat, Wilson Varghese noted that the current network of Kalimat is one of the largest wireless networks ever undertaken by any operator across the Middle East.
According to Varghese, Kalimat is offering the first 3.5 G telecom network in Iraq, even as it ushers the country into the most modern era of telecommunication. Varghese also noted that Kalimat is eyeing 25 percent Iraqi market share and that the company was facing some challenges concerning security related issues.
As an experienced and reliable player in the telecommunication industry, he noted, Kalimat is determined to deliver a robust, powerful and efficient softswitch-based CDMA network, combined with the latest WiMAX technology which “will enable in offering our customers the state-of-the-art services.”
Varghese observed that Kalimat has deployed latest, and future-proof network utilizing a wide-range networking products.
Replying to a question, he said that Kalimat is planning to enter the Kuwaiti market to dispense services in the IP Television domain and added that talks in this regard were in progress but refused to divulge any details about the project. Among others who spoke at the event included: Stipho, Dr Abachi and Rezak.
“We are officially underway and raring to take on the future through Iraq’s telecommunication requirements. With Kalimat, Iraq is witnessing a full-scale deployment of fixed wireless technology across the country, not just in urban clusters, but in remote areas as well,” he added.
Equipped with a large array of products and services, Kalimat promises to introduce the latest telecom technologies to Iraq’s corporate world and residences, he added.
Kalimat Telecom won the Iraq National WLL (Wireless Local Loop) License on Sept 6.
Varghese took pride in the fact that a vast majority of the workers of Kalimat were Iraqi nationals and as a result the company was confident of succeeding in its venture in Iraq. Asked whether the company had any immediate expansion plans pertaining to the region, he opined that the company was focusing its efforts on the Iraqi market at the moment.
“I thank everyone who was behind the launch — our devoted and efficient engineers, support staff, Huwei, the technology providers, research analysts, marketing and communication experts,” he added.
“It was a huge step for Kalimat and regardless of the competition, Kalimat will succeed and so will Iraq. We all need to continue to work hard and pray that Kalimat continues to be successful and progresses towards becoming the most successful telecom provider in the future.”
Varghese said Kalimat will serve not only the Iraqi household but also small medium and large enterprise market and that it aims to enter every home, business, government and non-government institution in Iraq and deliver five million CDMA and WiMAX lines of service by 2011.
Kalimat is structured as a consortium of leading domain expertise vendors in global telecommunications market, especially in Iraq, and worldwide leaders in WLL operation and domain knowledge.
(www.pukmedia.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:42 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:


Hyundai signs contract of $360 million with Electricity Ministry

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Tuesday , 17 /06 /2008 Time 4:04:21




Baghdad, Jun 16, (VOI) – The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity signed a contract of 360 million U.S. dollars with the Korean company Hyundai to supply 12 new power generation units, said the ministry's official spokesperson.
He added that the units will arrive in the country within a few weeks, and will be distributed throughout selected areas in Baghdad and other cities.
"The Electricity Ministry signed a contract with the S. Korean Hyundai to provide Iraq with 12 new power generation units, each with a capacity of 30 Megawatts," Aziz Sultan told Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI).
"The units are expected to arrive within the coming weeks," he said.
"They will be distributed over selected areas in Baghdad and some Iraqi provinces, according to the demand," he noted.
He explained that the total value of the contract is $360 million.
Baghdad and most of the Iraqi provinces suffer severe lack of electricity, a matter that makes people rely on private owned local generators.
(www.aswataliraq.info)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:43 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq law on Baathists not being implemented
Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:18am EDT

By Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - When the Iraqi parliament passed a law in January aimed at rehiring former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party, U.S. President George W. Bush praised it as a step towards national reconciliation.

The Accountability and Justice Law replaced the deBaathification Law, under which tens of thousands of former Baathists, mostly Sunni Arabs, were purged from government and security posts following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

But five months later, implementation of the law is bogged down by infighting between politicians, and the committee once tasked with hunting out Baathists in government has found itself in the odd position of overseeing the process of rehiring them or offering them state pensions.

The government has still not appointed a seven-member panel to replace the deBaathification Committee, whose enthusiastic purge of Baathists from government posts prompted minority Sunni Arabs to accuse them of conducting a witch-hunt.

The Accountability and Justice Law was the first of a series of so-called "benchmark" laws that Washington pressed Iraq's Shi'ite-led government to pass to foster reconciliation. Sunni Arabs, dominant under Saddam, had complained that the deBaathification program amounted to collective punishment.

The law is seen as crucial to easing sectarian tensions between Iraq's majority Shi'ite sect and Sunni Arab Muslims that pushed the country to the brink of civil war in 2006.

Ali al-Freji, 43, sits in his office behind the high walls of Saddam's former propaganda headquarters in Baghdad.

Freji is a director-general in the Accountability and Justice Committee, where staff rebuke visitors who still refer to it by its old name, the deBaathification Committee.

Freji, a former opponent of Saddam's rule who says he was jailed in Germany for more than a year for breaking into the Iraqi embassy there, sees himself as a man with a new mission.

"We are doing a professional job by offering former Baathists a new start and stop their suffering," he said.

PARLIAMENT DISPUTE

The committee has received 14,000 applications from former Baathists asking for either reinstatement or for pensions, he said.

But Iraq's presidency council -- which comprises Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, and his two deputies -- and a separate Accountability and Justice Committee in parliament have ordered Freji and his colleagues to freeze their work.

Letters sent by the two bodies to Freji's committee last month, seen by Reuters, said the committee could continue to operate in a caretaker capacity, receiving the applications but not making any decisions on them. It would be up to the new panel, to comprise senior officials, to approve or reject them.

Parliament's legal committee, however, gave contradictory instructions. It sent a third letter to Freji on June 5, telling him to ignore the other letters and continue with his work.

"The presidency council has no right to interfere in this issue because it is not a government. Its powers are honorary," said Baha al-Araji, the head of parliament's legal committee and a legislator in Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's political bloc.

Amid the confusion and conflicting signals from parliament, the biggest Sunni Arab bloc is already seeking amendments to the new law. It objects to a provision under which 7,000 former Baathists serving in the security services would be dismissed.

"Forcing former Baathists out of a job, especially in the security forces will lead to confusion ... at a time when their efforts are urgently needed by the country," said Accordance Front lawmaker Rasheed al-Azzawi.

Azzawi blamed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government for the delay in forming the panel, saying parliament had sent the cabinet a letter in March urging them to nominate members.

The Accordance Front suspended negotiations on rejoining Maliki's government last month in what was seen as another blow to reconciliation efforts.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:49 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iran says uranium enrichment is a "red line"

By Parisa Hafezi and Zahra Hosseinian

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran said on Tuesday uranium enrichment was its "red line" and would continue, despite an enhanced offer of incentives from big powers to stop activity the West fears could yield nuclear bombs.

The EU's top diplomat, Javier Solana, presented Tehran on Saturday with an adjusted package of economic benefits designed to persuade it to curb its nuclear work, and said Iran should stop enrichment during negotiations to implement the offer.

"We have repeatedly said that enrichment is our red line and we should enjoy this technology. The work will be continued," deputy foreign minister Alireza Sheikhattar told reporters, according to the state news agency IRNA.

The incentive package agreed by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany last month and delivered by Solana is a revised version of one rejected by Iran in 2006.

Western powers have warned Iran it will face more sanctions if it spurns the offer. Iran has shown no sign it will change its position, and suggested it was in no hurry to respond to the incentives proposal, saying it is being reviewed.

"We will give our answer as soon as possible. But we do not know exactly when it will be," the Iranian official said.

The incentives package offers Iran the chance to develop a civilian nuclear program with light water reactors -- seen as harder to divert into bomb-making than the technology Tehran is now developing -- and legally binding fuel supply guarantees.

It also offers trade and other benefits, including the possibility of Iran buying civil aircraft from the West.

A prominent Washington think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said the package contained two important new additions.

ISIS noted a passage saying the powers would "support" continued research and development (R&D) in nuclear energy "as confidence is gradually restored" in Iran's intentions. This suggested R&D could go on even during an enrichment halt and set a longer-term timetable for resolving core issues, it said.

ISIS said the offer also alluded to possible security guarantees, a prime Iranian concern, by citing readiness to "reaffirm obligations under the U.N. Charter to refrain ... from the use of force against (Iran's) territorial integrity".

NO STRAIGHT ANSWER

A senior Iranian official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters Iran's response would not be a straight yes-or-no answer. "It will be a discussable response. We might accept some elements of the proposal and reject some others," he said.

"But suspension of enrichment is not on the agenda."

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Monday Europe would take further sanctions against Iran, speaking of immediate action to freeze the overseas assets of Iran's biggest bank, the Bank Melli.

But after a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, Solana said the EU had yet to decide on a new round of sanctions. The U.N. Security Council has imposed three rounds of limited sanctions on Iran since 2006.

Iran insists, as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, that it has the right to master the complete nuclear fuel cycle, including enriching uranium, for peaceful purposes. It says it wants nuclear power only for electricity generation.

The process provides fuel for power plants or, if concentrated to heighten the enrichment level, atomic bombs.

Washington says it wants a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear row with the West that has helped push oil prices to record highs, but has not ruled out military action as a last option. Tehran says its response to attack would be "painful".
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:53 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

IAF sets 10 conditions to endorse agreement with US, says MP 17/06/2008 13:20:00

Baghdad (NINA)- MP Abdul Kareem al-Samarrayi of the Iraqi Accord Front declared that his bloc has set ten conditions to endorse the Iraqi –US security agreement. Al-Samarrayi, also a member of the security and defense parliamentary committee
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:54 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Obama won''t take "rash decision" on troop pullout from Iraq -- FM statement

Politics 6/17/2008 1:52:00 PM



BAGHDAD, June 17 (KUNA) -- US Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has assured Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari that he, if elected, would not take "a rash or irresponsible" decision on pullout of the US forces from Iraq, according to a ministry statement released on Tuesday.
The ministry statement added, Zebari, currently in Washington, held talks with Obama on telephone on Monday, discussing security and political developments in the country.
Obama, according to the statement, assured the minister that no badly-calculated or irresponsible decisions on withdrawing the American troops would be taken by the US Administration in case he was elected as president.
The presidential hopeful asserted that he was encouraged by reduction in violence in Iraq, but also noted that it was important for the US to begin the process of withdrawing the troops to affirm that it has no interest to maintain permanent bases in the country.
Zebari presented a detailed report on security and political conditions in Iraq and affirmed the Baghdad government keenness on upgrading services in the country.
Zebari also updated Obama on the current negotiations between Iraq and the US concerning the draft strategic agreement concerning US troops in Iraq in the future.
The statement concluded with Obama's remarks where he asserted that he would visit Iraq soon. (end) ahh.asa KUNA 171352 Jun 08NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:57 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

US Army kills four terrorists in Mosul

Military and Security 6/17/2008 4:16:00 PM



BAGHDAD, June 17 (KUNA) -- Coalition forces killed four terrorists and detained 10 suspected terrorists while targeting the al-Qaeda bombing and foreign terrorist facilitation networks in northern Iraq Tuesday, the US Army said.
The Army said in a statement that coalition forces targeted members of a bombing network in Mosul and ordered occupants of the target building to surrender. Several people came out peacefully, but four terrorists, one armed with a pistol, refused to comply with the forces instructions.
Perceiving hostile intent, Coalition forces engaged and killed the terrorists, one of whom was wanted for criminal activity with al-Qaeda in Iraq. Another wanted man on scene was detained with three associates for his alleged role in manufacturing and distributing bombing components.
Also in Mosul, Coalition forces conducted a precision operation and captured an alleged mid-level AQI leader. The suspect is believed to oversee attacks and facilitate the movement of foreign terrorists into the city. (end) aha.tg KUNA 171616 Jun 08NNNN
(www.kuna.net.kw)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 9:58 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraqi Forces Ready for Assault on Southern Shiite Stronghold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baghdad, 17 June 2008 (AFP)
Print article Send to friend
Iraqi forces have completed their deployment in the southern city of Amara ahead of a planned offensive against militia groups in the Shiite stronghold, a top commander said on Monday.

"The military is fully deployed to ensure total control of the city without leaving any gaps for the militants to flee," said a statement quoting General Nasir al-Abadi, a senior Iraqi commander from the defence ministry.

Iraqi forces supported by US troops began amassing on Saturday in the province of Maysan and its capital Amara for a planned crackdown on militiamen, many believed to be linked to hardline Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Iraqi army officials have however declined to give troop numbers.

Abadi said the security forces are calling on local tribal leaders in the region and urging them to "support and facilitate the mission."

He also called upon militiamen to surrender their weapons as directed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who on Sunday gave them a four-day deadline before the operation is due to begin on Thursday.

British troops transferred security control of Maysan to Iraqi forces in April 2007, but peace in the province, and Amara in particular, has remained fragile, with intense Shiite infighting.

Militiamen from Sadr's Mahdi Army virtually seized control of Amara soon after the city was transferred to the Iraqis.

US-led forces believe that Amara, located close to the Iranian border, is a route for weapons smuggling into Iraq from its overwhelmingly Shiite neighbour.

Maliki launched a similar attack against rival Shiite militias, mainly the Mahdi Army, in the main southern city and oil hub of Basra in March.

It triggered fierce fighting between the militiamen and security forces in Basra and other Shiite regions that left hundreds of people dead.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 17, 2008 10:00 AM


Sara wrote:

I know it is a bit older article (June 11), but I thought I would mention this, as I had said on this site (before Nancy Pelosi did) that President Bush will not be impeached. Nice to see it reiterated in black and white:

===

House Moves Bush Impeachment Articles to Committee, Measure Likely DOA
Wednesday, June 11, 2008

WASHINGTON — The House has voted to send articles of impeachment against President Bush to a committee that is not likely to hold hearings before the end of his term.

By 251-166, House members dispatched the measure to a committee on Wednesday — a procedure often used to kill legislation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi long ago declared the prospects for impeachment proceedings "off the table."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,365694,00.html

-- June 17, 2008 2:25 PM


Sara wrote:

Justice and reality are like the turtle.. slow but sure. Will the turtle win the race? Will the American public be dazzled by the hare and the coverage given by the hare's "much too quick to judge" media?

===

Judge Dismisses Charges Against Marine Officer Accused of Failing to Investigate Haditha Iraqi Killings
Tuesday, June 17, 2008

CAMP PENDLETON, Calif. — A military judge dismissed charges Tuesday against a Marine officer accused of failing to investigate the killings of 24 Iraqis.

Col. Steven Folsom dismissed charges against Lt. Col. Jeffrey Chessani after finding that a four-star general overseeing the case was improperly influenced by an investigator probing the November 2005 shootings by a Marine squad in Haditha.

Chessani, of Rangely, Colo., was the highest-ranking officer to face a combat-related court-martial since the Vietnam War.

Of eight Marines originally charged in the case, only one is still facing prosecution in the biggest U.S. criminal prosecution involving Iraqi deaths to come out of the war.

Staff Sgt. Frank Wuterich, who faces voluntary manslaughter charges.. has pleaded not guilty.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,368023,00.html

-- June 17, 2008 2:59 PM


Sara wrote:

Article showing how Obama would not be a good pick to keep the country safe against terrorist attack, as he is naive and has a Sept 10 mindset which is the approach which failed us and allowed 9/11. Does America see this inexperience and naivete as the incredible threat to their personal security it truly is? Or are they caught up in Obamamania, to the exclusion of the facts?

On a conference call with reporters, former CIA chief James Woolsey and others said Obama’s policy regarding the handling of terrorism suspects would create an opening for more attacks like those on Sept. 11, 2001.

An important point to note - It would create, QUOTE:

"an opening for more attacks like those on Sept. 11, 2001
an opening for more attacks like those on Sept. 11, 2001
an opening for more attacks like those on Sept. 11, 2001."
(Yes, it was worth repeating.)

This beginner job training by McCain of Obama is unnerving.
I can't believe the American public would even consider such incredible inexperience and naivete (in so many areas) for a candidate to TRY his hand at running the country... the man has only a tiny bit of experience in the Senate, for heaven's sake.
Has common sense gone out the door?

===

McCain camp: ‘Näive’ Obama has ‘Sept. 10 mindset
By Sam Youngman and Andy Barr
Posted: 06/17/08

The campaign of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on Tuesday accused Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) of being “näive” and “representing the perfect manifestation of a Sept. 10 mindset” in his approach on how to treat suspected terrorists being held at Guantanamo Bay.

On a conference call with reporters, former CIA chief James Woolsey and others said Obama’s policy regarding the handling of terrorism suspects would create an opening for more attacks like those on Sept. 11, 2001.

Randy Scheunemann, McCain’s foreign policy adviser, said Obama represents “the perfect manifestation of a Sept. 10 mindset.”

“If a law enforcement approach were accurate, then you wouldn’t have had Sept. 11,” Kori Schake, a McCain policy adviser, said.

In an interview with ABC News, Obama referenced the first World Trade Center attack in 1993, and stated that it had not been necessary to put those responsible in a detention facility like Guantanamo but instead in U.S. prisons.

“And the fact that the administration has not tried to do that has created a situation where not only have we never actually put many of these folks on trial, but we have destroyed our credibility when it comes to rule of law all around the world, and given a huge boost to terrorist recruitment in countries that say, ‘Look, this is how the United States treats Muslims,’ ” Obama said. “So that, I think, is an example of something that was unnecessary. We could have done the exact same thing, but done it in a way that was consistent with our laws.”

Those on the McCain call said that the approach taken in 1993 is “precisely what failed,” and if the evidence used in targeting those responsible had not been under grand jury seal then “that would have given a good chance to have prevented 9-11.”

“It was a miserable failure,” Woolsey said.

In a further reference, Scheunemann pointed to the famous "3 a.m. phone call" ad used by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) during the Democratic nomination battle as a way of painting Obama as näive on national security.

“I guess his response would be to call the lawyers and the Justice Department," Scheunemann said.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccain-camp-nave-obama-has-sept.-10-mindset-2008-06-17.html

-- June 17, 2008 8:35 PM


Sara wrote:

Why Don't the Iraqis Revalue the Dinar?

In this article, it states that the Iraqis see the need for the SOFA - for American forces to protect them until they can stand on their own. It also acknowledges their desperate need for continued assistance in order to help economically. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said, QUOTE:

We need this continued support of the US forces, of the multinational forces, because the gains we have gained, both security, military, economic are still vulnerable,”

This shows that they know the US/multinationals are trying to help them all they possibly can, and that help extends to protecting them even in the economic sphere. So why don't they do the revalue of the Dinar ?? We know that it is in the best interests of the Iraqis and would help them to have a stronger currency - their people would be able to purchase more goods with their Dinars and it would raise their standard of living. It would help stimulate their economy.. so why do they not do it?

Is it because they prefer to listen to IRAN who is pushing their own anti-American agenda which benefits only Iran? Iran would not like to see Iraq prosper economically.. so if the Iranians know of the plans to revalue, we must assume they are in opposition to them and have made those sentiments known to the Iraqis. But the revaluing of the Dinar to a normal valuation is within the Iraqi people's interests for a strong Iraq.. surely this is in both country's interests - in the interests of Iraq (who needs a strong Iraq to stand up on its own as a soverign nation) and in the interests of America (who wants a strong Iraq so they can withdraw honorably and keep only a small force there to help when necessary, as in other nations around the world).

Can anyone tell me why, other than the clandestine whispers of Iran in their ears, the Iraqis would not make this very wise step and revalue the currency for the good of their country? Is it because a few speculators, such as ourselves, may prosper somewhat, too? Surely the Iraqis have enough faith in God to allow Him to deal with such as will be affected by speculation, be they big or small. Surely their first priority must be their own safety and security and economy.. for Iraq and her people. What other concerns could keep them from doing what is truly right FOR IRAQ? Why don't they do the right thing and revalue their Dinar? Lord knows it is God's will for them - and it is for their ultimate good!

Sara.

==

Iraq still needs US troops to secure gains

WASHINGTON (Agencies): Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Sunday his country still needs American troops to help secure progress achieved as a result of what he called a successful US surge strategy. “We need this continued support of the US forces, of the multinational forces, because the gains we have gained, both security, military, economic are still vulnerable,” he told CNN’s Late Edition, weighing into a major issue in the US presidential campaign.

The surge of US troops since 2007 — currently there are around 150,000 in Iraq — had dramatically curbed violence. Improved training of Iraqi forces would reduce Baghdad’s dependence on foreign troops and eventually enable withdrawals, said Zebari. “But this is a process. I think we are not there yet,” he said in Washington.

Zebari avoided explicitly taking sides in the contest between Republican John McCain, who has vowed to keep American troops in Iraq until the war is won, and Democratic rival Barack Obama, who has promised to remove US combat troops within 16 months of taking office.

In Baghdad, the Iraqi government says Baghdad should be given priority as the place to hold conferences or sign deals concerning Iraq as the wartorn nation seeks to assert its independence. International conferences on Iraq are usually held in other countries because of fears the high-profile forums could be targeted by violence. The Iraqi government says it’s time to reconsider those concerns.

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/client/pagesdetails.asp?nid=18487&ccid=11

-- June 18, 2008 2:04 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

My suspicion as to why Iraqis don't re-val is cause they don't pull their own purse strings!

Carole

-- June 18, 2008 9:55 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

I believe it is an internal choice by the Iraqis not to Revalue, likely influenced by IRAN. A choice influenced by fears instilled by Iran (including, perhaps, death threats) - and a lack of willingness to do what is right and necessary to allow their country to prosper. There are also likely voices from within America by the Defeatist Democrats who are trying to influence them not to revalue for their sakes. The Dems and their ilk (see next post of mine) have shown repeatedly that they care more about being proven "politically correct" for their political gain - than they do winning this conflict for the good of the country - to the detriment of the American people.

Hab 1:4 Therefore the law is slacked, and judgment does not go forth: for the wicked compass about the righteous; therefore wrong judgment proceeds.

Sara.

-- June 18, 2008 11:51 AM


Sara wrote:

It is always good to see and understand an opposing viewpoint. I watched the movie "Rendition" last night. It is the far left's voice about supposed American injustice in the name of protecting the public from terrorism. It stars an American Egyptian. He has lived in the US (without becoming a citizen) since he was 14 years old. He married an American (still, no citizenship) and is a chemical engineer who helped work on a project which featured explosives (he has expertise in possible chemical weapons). They have documentation he received calls from a known terrorist, so they take him into custody and interrogate him - mercilessly. The evidence appears very airtight, but we, as the audience, know he is innocent.

This could be called "Collateral Damage" and the entire movie is certainly following one man who is a very great exception to the rule. While no one LIKES the idea someone could be falsely accused and tortured.. the movie does not ring true when one of the lead stars (a CIA agent) asks how much intelligence they get from these interrogations. The answer is quite obviously given in the movie as none. However, in the NEWS, in REALITY, I have seen actionable intelligence happen as a result of unorthodox and unapproved means of obtaining information. The one which comes to mind is where the Sgt shot a gun beside a detainee's head and then told him the next bullet would be through his head unless he spilled everything he knew. Then he cocked the gun. The man talked, they were told of an ambush and his entire unit was saved from being blown up. The result was.. he was fired for inappropriate behavior. Can't have people doing such things and saving AMERICAN lives now, can we? (Scroll back, I posted it on this site at the time it happened.) I believe I also read that this man is running for Congress in the upcoming elections.

So - if intelligence is obtained in this way.. I believe "All's fair in love and war" and people who fall through the cracks, like in the movie "Rendition", should not have the rules changed and made "more compassionate" so we do not receive the intelligence we need to protect ourselves from attack. The problem is.. the "Rendition" mentality of "compassion" just made the Supreme Court with their decision to extend to the detainees in Guantanamo Bay all the privileges of an American citizen. And as this mentality moves forward and America makes the rules based on the exceptions.. this strategy of warfare will be shown to be folly. It will bear fruit, and American lives will be lost as a result. Protecting one set of people (terrorists) will allow the other set of people in this war to suffer (Americans) and visa versa. If America doesn't have the guts for warfare and all that means.. in time, they will be given them by the losses they have to take of American lives. Why should our sons and daughters have to die for the bleeding heart leftist's false sense of morality? - Because of their collective guilt about having this war thrust upon us by the terrorists? It is folly beyond words to protect Nazis from interrogation.. or terrorists. Without that intelligence in World War II which was obtained from captured prisioners, we would have lost the war. Are we truly such fools, to base our laws on exceptions and not rules.. in the name of "compassion" for the exceptions? How the enemy must laugh at us as fools.

Here is that ruling from the Supreme Court recently which has basically given the same rights as US citizens to the terrorists held in Guantanamo Bay.

Note the justice Antonin Scalia who dissented, states that the court’s decision “will make the war harder on us. It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.”

It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.
It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.
It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.
(Yes, it was worth repeating.)

===

Supreme Ct Gives Terrorists Right To Appeal
From an elated Associated Press:

High Court sides with Guantanamo detainees again
By MARK SHERMAN, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that foreign terrorism suspects held at Guantanamo Bay have rights under the Constitution to challenge their detention in U.S. civilian courts.

In its third rebuke of the Bush administration’s treatment of prisoners, the court ruled 5-4 that the government is violating the rights of prisoners being held indefinitely and without charges at the U.S. naval base in Cuba. The court’s liberal justices were in the majority.

Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for the court, said, “The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.”

Kennedy said federal judges could ultimately order some detainees to be released, but that such orders would depend on security concerns and other circumstances.

It was not immediately clear whether this ruling, unlike the first two, would lead to prompt hearings for the detainees, some of whom have been held more than 6 years. Roughly 270 men remain at the island prison, classified as enemy combatants and held on suspicion of terrorism or links to al-Qaida and the Taliban.

The ruling could resurrect many detainee lawsuits that federal judges put on hold pending the outcome of the high court case. The decision sent judges, law clerks and court administrators scrambling to read Kennedy’s 70-page opinion and figure out how to proceed. Chief Judge Royce C. Lamberth said he would call a special meeting of federal judges to address how to handle the cases…

The court said not only that the detainees have rights under the Constitution, but that the system the administration has put in place to classify them as enemy combatants and review those decisions is inadequate.

The administration had argued first that the detainees have no rights. But it also contended that the classification and review process was a sufficient substitute for the civilian court hearings that the detainees seek.

In dissent, Chief Justice John Roberts criticized his colleagues for striking down what he called “the most generous set of procedural protections ever afforded aliens detained by this country as enemy combatants.”

Justices Samuel Alito, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas also dissented.

Scalia said the nation is “at war with radical Islamists” and that the court’s decision “will make the war harder on us. It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.”

Justices Stephen Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, David Souter and John Paul Stevens joined Kennedy to form the majority.

Souter wrote a separate opinion in which he emphasized the length of the detentions.

“A second fact insufficiently appreciated by the dissents is the length of the disputed imprisonments, some of the prisoners represented here today having been locked up for six years,” Souter said. “Hence the hollow ring when the dissenters suggest that the court is somehow precipitating the judiciary into reviewing claims that the military … could handle within some reasonable period of time.” …

The head of the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights, which represents dozens of prisoners at Guantanamo, welcomed the ruling…

===end quote==

This is, of course, insane.

We simply cannot give US citizens’ rights and US court trials to prisoners of war, let alone terrorists. That way lies madness. (And a lot fewer prisoners being taken.)

Apparently, it isn’t just the law that is an ass.

And it has nothing to do with the Constitution, and so should be outside the purview of the Supreme Court.

Terrorists are not US citizens. They are not on US soil. They are not subject to US laws. They are not entitled to US rights.

No matter what five black robed mullahs decree.

QUOTE: "Souter wrote a separate opinion in which he emphasized the length of the detentions." (end quote)

That is rich, is it not? The detentions have been so long because of the government (and Soros) funded lawyers dragging this out with frivolous appeals. Which this decision will only encourage.

Indeed, the AP has updated this very article and given it the new headline: “High Court ruling may delay war crimes trials.”

But never mind all that, Mr. Souter.

QUOTE: "The head of the New York-based Center for Constitutional Rights, which represents dozens of prisoners at Guantanamo, welcomed the ruling." (end quote)

That would be Mr. Michael Ratner. And of course he would welcome this ruling.

(See pic, caption - Michael Ratner addresses a “World Can’t Wait, Drive Out The Bush Regime” rally, sponsored by the Communist Party.)

Michael Ratner is the head of the Communist front America-hating group that is defending almost all of the accused terrorists detained in Guantanamo.

He and the rest of the Center for Constitutional Rights (a 501c3 tax exempt “charity”) hate this country and worked long and hard to try to destroy its legal system.

They are terrorists with briefcases. And they are doing everything in their power to aid and abet their terrorist allies.

And, alas, they are getting their way. Thanks to five like-minded souls on the Supreme Court.

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert.

Comments/Reaction:

1) JohnMG

….”Kennedy said federal judges could ultimately order some detainees to be released….”

There is precedent in our history where the President refused to comply with such orders. Clearly this is a usurpation of powers not granted to the judiciary. An Obama presidency would immediately set about the release of these vermin. A McCain, given the public outrage that would ensue, might not. What IS crystal clear, at least to me, is that “We the people” must do something to take back our country before it’s too late.

2) BillK

Now that enemy combatants must effectively be Mirandized, how long before each United States solider that kills an enemy in battle must undergo a full trial as to whether the killing in question was legally justified? How long before they are subject to civil court proceedings brought by the families of those so killed?

Don’t laugh. It will be soon enough. QUOTE: “The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.”

Too bad the Constitution will soon literally be set ablaze by our enemies.

3) wardmama4

-’Too bad the Constitution will soon literally be set ablaze by our enemies.’- sadly it is being torn asunder by traitors from within right now.

You know these leftist/liberal/anti-Americans are really, really stupid - they apparently believe their propaganda machine oops msm - that all Americans are open border, pro-illegal immigration, pro-choice, anti-war, anti-Bush, pro-Global Warming, pc police endorsing simpering fools. The problem is that the backlash - whether from true American citizens who are tired of these stupid and un-Constitutional intrusions into our lives, society and freedoms or from the invading radical islamic horde that they have enabled all these years - will be horrible for them and all their pie-in-the-sky, good intentioned, stupid and dangerous actions.

4) BigOil

"Kennedy said federal judges could ultimately order some detainees to be released…

So Kennedy is the self appointed King of America - granting powers onto his Lords on the Federal bench.

5) sheehanjihad

The Supreme Court has given terrorists a little more rope to hang us with, that’s all. Disgusting in that we have no say in our own protection and safety, yet "morally superior beings" bring this to our doorstep…..supposedly for our own good. Hate doesnt begin to cover this….it’s reprehensible.

6) 1republicanscientist

Hopefully we see the alternative. They are worthless to try in court (shouldn’t they have to adhere to the GC to get these rights, or am I misled), so shoot them in the field.

So simple! No prisoners, no problem.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/supreme-court-gives-detainees-right-to-appeal

"No prisioners, no problem"

Also, No intelligence, and we lose that advantage we have in warfare now which is helping us win this conflict. Score a big one for the bad guys - courtesy the Supreme Court of America. May God judge those who so voted for betraying their vows to defend America from all her enemies - foreign and domestic. If ONE life was to be precious to them in their decicions, it should have been an AMERICAN life, not a terrorist's - many of which they are now putting at risk, per Scalia - It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.

Sara.

-- June 18, 2008 12:13 PM


Laura Parker wrote:

Tim Bitts,

Your comments and observations on Iran are noteworthy. I would tend to agree with you that such a system that you described of clerics theocracy would be on the decline; except, I remember biblical prophecy and Iran is definately involved in these final days battles as a nation. Therefore, don't dismiss this deadly enemy out of hand, Tim. What makes sense to you and I may not be so to many people holding these beliefs.

Iran's legal system is also a sham when it comes to justice. I think many of us would agree that counting a woman's worth at 1/2 to a man is unjust. Also, people found guilty of crimes need to restore or pay fines or serve jail time for their offenses. What you have described in your example is definately not justice to that 11 year old girl and her family.

Sara,

I was aware of the nuclear weapons in the size of suite cases and I share your concern about Iran's threats concerning the country of america. I am wondering the same thing about who this Pakistani sold his blue prints too.

All that we can do is pray that our intelligence/homeland security finds the items in question to help protect america. I wish there was more that we could do--but hopefully, God will help us protect our country.

Hope all is well with everyone.

Laura Parker

-- June 18, 2008 12:41 PM


Sara wrote:

Laura said, "All that we can do is pray that our intelligence/homeland security finds the items in question to help protect america. I wish there was more that we could do--but hopefully, God will help us protect our country."

THAT is why I posted that last post. How CAN the intelligence community do its job when the Supreme Court has just this month tied its hands? The fallout from this will happen quite soon, within a short space of time - unravelling all their intelligence efforts after President Bush leaves office. Can you see this playing out? Do you have the eyes to see what will be the result? The intelligence community needs to "find the items in question to help protect America." Surely this is TOP PRIORITY, even above giving the rights of citizenship to terrorists, and removing the ability of that intelligence community to get the information they must obtain to keep us safe?

Not ONE.. NOT ONE.. American life should be given in this conflict that is not sold incredibly dearly.

Isa 13:12 I will make a man more precious than fine gold; even a man than the golden wedge of Ophir.

Surely our troops and people should be this precious in the sight of America and its institutions of law. Those who have violated that trust and sold American lives cheaply to appease the terrorists will pay. There is a Judgement they will not escape. The lives they take by this decision, and the vows they have broken are unforgiveable. I entrust the Judgement entirely to God.. on earth and for that time in heaven. I am so angry, I could spit. How DARE they?

As you know, I have seen the results this will cause in our future. I cannot but grieve and be angry to see these five justices being used as pawns of the devil to betray and take so very many American (and Canadian) lives. Such an intelligence loss is too dear a price to pay for their phony "compassion." May God find some way to subvert such an evil law - for our collective eventual good. May there be found a way so that the vision I saw never comes to pass on US soil.

If only there were going to be in the Whitehouse a man with the backbone of President Bush - who would stand up for the defense of the American people! As was twice mentioned in the article I posted today, the Supreme Court is overstepping its bounds by this decision, and if President Bush were up for another four years, I can bet he would find a way to protect our lives during his tenure against such imposition of unwarranted and unconstitutional power. God help us all. The price we pay will be so incredibly great.. simply because the intelligence community won't be able to obtain the information we must have to "find the items in question to help protect America."

The people want change? God forbid.. it appears that we will get it. What we have now has protected us from terrorist attack. As you can see, that will change.. as it is just such "change" which the people of America want. The policies which have kept us free and safe are, like President Bush's popularity ratings, very low in their opinion - only "compassion" for those against us is politically correct - to the death of many in North America at the hands of the terrorists. God forbid.

God forbid... what can be done?

Sara.

-- June 18, 2008 2:32 PM


Sara wrote:

Some welcome good news.

Sadr militia won't resist Iraq offensive
June 18, 2008

Iraqi officials say radical Shiite militias have agreed to let the government retake control of provincial capital without a fight.

Forces loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr have told Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki they won't offer resistance when an expected offensive to take control of Amarah, capital of Maysan province, begins this week, USA Today reported Wednesday.

In a change of strategy, the Iraqi government gave ample warning to Sadr's militia forces they were coming to retake the city, which until recently had been in control of the militants. An Iraqi military official told the newspaper militia commanders decided not to fight and ordered their soldiers to pull improvised explosive devices out of the ground.

http://www.mworld.com/m/m.w?lp=GetStory&id=310959811

-- June 18, 2008 2:48 PM


Sara wrote:

Maybe the US will go the way of these dodo birds in the UK?
Don't those suitcase nuclear bomb plans give people ANY pause for thought about public safety?
Any kind of caution in dealing "compassionately" with terrorists?
Are we really only dealing with petty criminals.. or are we at WAR?

===

UK Gives Bin Laden’s ‘Right-Hand Man’ Bail
From his allies at Reuters:

UK frees Bin Laden’s ‘right-hand man’ on bail
Wednesday, 18 June 2008

LONDON (Reuters) A Jordanian who defeated a British government attempt to deport him as a "significant international terrorist" was freed from prison on bail on Tuesday but confined to his home for 22 hours a day.

Omar Othman, known as Abu Qatada, was among the highest profile terrorism suspects in a British jail.

A special tribunal dealing with foreign terrorism suspects published a seven-page document setting stringent conditions for his release.

He is forbidden from using any mobile telephone or computer, or connecting in any way to the Internet, and may leave home only between 10 and 11 a.m. and 2 and 3 p.m.

The document sets out a list of individuals that he may not contact or receive visits from — headed by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his number two, Ayman al-Zawahri.

Othman won a legal battle against being deported to Jordan when the Court of Appeal ruled in April he would not face a fair trial at home…

Civil rights groups have condemned the government’s treatment of the men and its attempts to remove them to countries with poor human rights records…

The government case against him described Othman as a "significant international terrorist" whose presence posed "a continuing threat to national security and a significant terrorism-related risk to the public".

Twice convicted in absentia in Jordan of involvement in terrorist plots, he has been jailed in Britain pending deportation since August 2005. He was previously held without charge under powers that were declared unlawful.

=== end quote ===

This is another comedy break in the suicide of the West.

QUOTE: "The document sets out a list of individuals that he may not contact or receive visits from — headed by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his number two, Ayman al-Zawahri."

They are passing up a great opportunity to nab those gentlemen.

Still, just wait until the five mullahs on our Supreme Court hear this latest judicial breakthrough.

They will immediately issue a fatwa freeing all the Guantanamo detainees on bail, as long as they promise to stay around the house.

By the way, one wonders if Mr. Othman can fit into a burka. Not that he would probably need to go to all that trouble.

For, as we noted about this time last year, at least seven similar terrorists have already escaped the UK’s "stringent" house arrest.

From a gleeful Associated Press, QUOTE:

UK: Terror suspect flees while under house arrest
Jun. 21, 2007

Police were searching for a terrorist suspect who disappeared while under a type of partial house arrest known as a control order, the government said Thursday.

The suspect, a foreign national who was placed under a control order in November 2005, appeared to have fled on Monday night, said Security, Counter Terrorism and Police Minister Tony McNulty.

His escape brings to seven the number of people under control orders who have absconded.

“Public safety is the top priority for the government and the police,” McNulty told lawmakers. “Locating this individual is an operational matter for the police, and an active investigation is under way.”

The man’s identity was not being released at the request of police, McNulty said.

But "public safety is the top priority."

This article was posted by Steve Gilbert on June 18th, 2008.

http://sweetness-light.com/archive/uk-gives-bin-ladens-right-hand-man-bail

“Public safety is the top priority for the government and the police,

Sure it is.. just like the safety of the American military is top priority for the Supreme Court..
except those who will die because of the last Supreme Court ruling.
They don't count.
Sure wish their widows and children and loved ones would be a slight bit unhappy BEFORE those unhappy events.
Not to mention the public who SAY they support the troops..
Just not the troops' lives - because the American public wants this Obamamania-type (and endorsed) "change".
We are so compassionate.. to our enemies. That will end the war real quick, for sure.
Just think of how far we could have gone if our ancestors had followed this policy of appeasement and leniency if they had Hitler's right hand man, Himmler, in custody.
These trends are the way to "change" and go forward, for sure.
Way to fight a war, people.. way to fight a war. /sarc off
For SHAME.

Sara.

-- June 18, 2008 4:27 PM


Sara wrote:

So I guess that means we can add a few more to this ever-growing list..

"YES WE CAN", BUT...
By Edward L. Daley
MichNews.com
Jun 11, 2008

Yes we can elect Barack Obama president, but...
No we can't mention his middle name.
No we can't win the war in Iraq.
No we can't expand oil exploration, drilling or refining.
No we can't build nuclear power plants.
No we can't convert coal to oil.
No we can't extract oil from shale.
No we can't punish companies for knowingly hiring illegal aliens and conspiring with them to commit tax fraud and identity theft on an unprecedented scale.
No we can't build a security fence on our southern border.
No we can't deport people who've entered our country illegally.
No we can't allow a small percentage of social security funds to be held in individual retirement accounts.
No we can't reduce government spending, waste and corruption.
No we can't adopt a less complicated tax system that would help to expand the economy.
No we can't allow medical professionals and their patients to control the healthcare system.
No we can't create a voucher program that would allow millions of poor children to attend schools that are capable of teaching them how to read and write.
No we can't allow parents to be involved in the reproductive decisions of their minor children.
No we can't fund technologically advanced weapons systems for our military.
No we can't thin out our nation's forests in order to prevent massive wildfires from erupting on a regular basis.
No we can't tolerate free speech on talk radio.
No we can't cut off government funding to "artists" who use our money to insult our religious beliefs.
No we can't allow the general public to determine the definition of marriage.
No we can't prevent the government from seizing private property for the purpose of selling it to large corporations which generate greater tax revenues than individuals.
No we can't scrutinize the scientific evidence behind the man-made global warming hypothesis.
No we can't tolerate religious leaders who denounce homosexuality.
No we can't smoke cigarettes on private property.
No we can't outlaw the murder of unborn children.
No we can't allow Christian symbols to be displayed in public squares at Christmas time.
No we can't employ terrorist profiling techniques at airports.
No we can't fire Marxist teachers from institutions of higher learning who spew anti-American rhetoric in class and seek to erode the moral foundation of their students.
No we can't carry handguns for personal protection.
No we can't order foods that contain trans fats at our favorite restaurants.
No we can't stop Iran from building nuclear weapons.
No we can't question the patriotism of neo-communist radicals and terrorist sympathizers.
No we can't impose the death penalty on unrepentant serial killers.
And no we can't remove from office judges who rewrite our Constitution from the bench.

Yes we can vote into the highest public office in the land a completely unqualified liberal activist just because he happens to be half black, but no we can't live as our forebears intended, with limited government interference in our lives, an expectation of equality under the law, and genuine pride in our country.

Copyright by Edward L. Daley
Owner of the Daley Times-Post
http://www.times-post

http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_20441.shtml

We can add things like:

NO we can't detain and treat terrorists like the enemy, but we must give them complete freedom and civil rights of American citizens, with perhaps the Supreme Court setting them free at their discretion.
No we (if we follow our allies) can't keep even Bin Laden's right hand man in secure custody.
No we can't act like nuclear technology is threatening the very lives of American citizens.. that is scaremongering.
No we can't protect our lives, but we must appease the enemy at every turn..

Any others you can think of?
It is an open-ended list.. and growing.
Growing madness.

Sara.

-- June 18, 2008 5:00 PM


Sara wrote:

Laura and board;

As I know you care very much about the American Homeland.. I thought I would post this one for you (and those who are interested in the life and death Homeland issue - and not just the Dinar) to read, asking..

What of Joe Scarborough's argument today (below) that had we not in the past dealt with terrorists as enemies but given them the rights of American citizens, we, QUOTE "would not have learned all the things we learned about al Qaeda, we would not have learned all the things we learned about September 11th, we would not have learned he planned September 11th, we would not have learned about the al Qaeda terror network."

And (he concluded) we would not be as safe as we are now.
Simple as that. Is America listening?
I am encouraged to find, quote:

The WaPo/ABC News poll released yesterday revealed that by a margin of 61/34%, Americans are opposed to granting GTMO detainees access to the U.S. civilian court system [see question #13].

Obama, unfortunately, is not among that 61%... will the majority vote for him?
Would he keep America safe?

Sara.

==

Obama on Terrorist Rights: Joe Calls Out Mika on 'Moral Choices'
By Mark Finkelstein
June 18, 2008

It would be hard to overstate the significance of Barack Obama's blunder. As a certain junior senator from New York said during the primary season, while John McCain has obviously passed the Commander-in-Chief threshold, it's not clear Obama has. If there is one fundamental challenge facing the Dem candidate in this campaign, it is to prove that he has the values and the toughness necessary to protect our country against the terrorists who seek to destroy us.

Yet now—in an interview with ABC's Jake Tapper—Obama has proposed a read-them-their-Miranda-rights approach to dealing with the likes of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. It's the policy equivalent of Dukakis-in-a-tank, and is likely, in this NewsBuster's opinion, to have an even more harmful impact on his campaign. The McCain camp has wasted no time in weighing in. In a conference call yesterday, former CIA director James Woolsey said Obama's advocacy of giving terrorists access to U.S. courts was an "extremely dangerous and an extremely naive approach to terrorism."

Discussion on Morning Joe today among, on the one hand, Barack fans Mika Brzezinski and WaPo's Jonathan Capehart, and on the other a Joe Scarborough preaching realpolitik, revealed just how vulnerable Obama is on the issue. I'd encourage readers to view the extended video clip here, but for present purposes will focus on one exchange:

JOE SCARBOROUGH: You [Capehart] said "what do we have to be afraid of?" If we had captured Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in 2003, and if instead of waterboarding Khalid Sheikh Mohammed we had instead booked him, fingerprinted him, and said "you have a right to retain an attorney, you have a right not to," I mean, and given him all the rights that Americans are afforded, this is a reality, it doesn't make it pretty, but we would not have learned all the things we learned about al Qaeda, we would not have learned all the things we learned about September 11th, we would not have learned he planned September 11th, we would not have learned about the al Qaeda terror network. And a lot of Americans out there, Jonathan, may say, OK, Jonathan Capehart and Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough may be offended by that fact, but I'm safer today because he didn't have the same constitutional rights that I have.

Mika had to concede the point. (see transcript)

Strictly speaking, Mika's right. In saying "there are moral choices as well. Maybe some people don't care about them," Brzezinski didn't accuse people of being immoral. She cast them as amoral. I'd urge Obama to adopt that line of argument: "you great, unwashed, amoral masses don't exist on my higher plane." Go for it, Barack!

As for Capehart being "100% confident" that either McCain or Obama would keep us safe: had Jonathan been around in 1938, perhaps he would have said the same of Neville Chamberlain and Winston Churchill.

Note: Joe has his finger on the national pulse. The WaPo/ABC News poll released yesterday revealed that by a margin of 61/34%, Americans are opposed to granting GTMO detainees access to the U.S. civilian court system [see question #13].

—Mark Finkelstein is a NewsBusters contributing editor and host of Right Angle.

Comments:

1) What Mika is trying so hard NOT to say... by c5then

Is that the issue is a moral one, meaning there is a correct choice and an incorrect choice. Mika doesn't want to admit that there are black and white issues and that there are opinions which are correct and moral and opinions which are incorrect and immoral.

The GITMO residents were all captured in foreign countries by the military as part of an armed conflict. They are POWs, enemy combatants, whatever. They have rights under the Geneva Conventions but they ABSOLUTELY DO NOT HAVE THE SAME RIGHTS AS A US CITIZEN anymore than Japenese or German troops captured in WW2 had any access to the US courts.

To give these individuals the same rights as US citizens is completely wrong, misguided, naiive, and immoral. These are people who have declared war on the US and in fact, all of Western society.

2) What Mika is saying by merlin61

The libs want us to give them rights, but what rights do they give to our journalists and military?
They chop off their heads or kill them ASAP, no trial, no lawyer, no nothing.
Get real Mika, and Supreme Court liberal judges.

3) Which brings up the issue by BD

Which brings up the issue of Justifiable repraisal which is allowed by the Geneva Accords but to this point to enacted by the current administration.

Briefly, if your enemy is violating the accords in an egregious manner (Executing prisoners summarily etc) you can claim a justifiable repraisal in an effort to get your enemy to adhere more closely to the Geneva Accords. In this case you could summarily execute a AQ prisoner for every one of our captives such as SGT Maupin who was killed.

As my training has taught me in the past the sole decision authority to cause this sort of Repriasal to occur resides in the Presidents hands, but as of yet has not been allowed (Can you imagine the press HOWLING? Even at the mere mention?)

4) McCain needs to prey on this weakness! by OldSailor88

I have posted this in NB before, and I will reiterate it now.

I have close personal friends who have done tours of duty in Guantanamo Bay. These terrorists were arrested on battlefields trying to kill Americans, and let there be no doubt in your mind that these terrorists want to be released so that they may continue to do so. By giving them OUR rights as Americans, you give the terrorists and the ACLU the access needed to the judicial system that will allow these killers to be freed. Remember the names of the five SCOTUS Judges who made this decision. The blood of every death caused by one of the terrorists that they have enabled to be free will be on their hands.

5) As you'll note from the by Mark Finkelstein

As you'll note from the article and the video [which contains clips of McCain advisors ripping Obama], McCain has indeed recognized the fundamental significance of Obama's mistake. I see this shaping up as a key moment in the campaign. Amazing that it's come so early.

6) "BRZEZINSKI:" by Killgrave

"BRZEZINSKI: There is an argument out there, though, that Jonathan makes, that the nation has lost its way in terms of its reputation -- "

That pretty much nails it. We should all be concerned about our "world reputation" as if we were in High School.

We're lucky that Obambi has a shot at the White House. It would be a refreshing "change" to have The world leader openly embracing thugs/terrorists/communists with silky words and muffin baskets.

7) Obama: by Mark Finkelstein

President Obama: Richard, how would they feel in Belgium about us being tough on terrorists?

Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke: They wouldn't like it in Brussels, sir. Wouldn't like it at all.

President Obama: OK, forget that, then.

8) Okay, I'll clarify. By by Killgrave

Okay, I'll clarify.

By "reputation" I mean an obsession with being "liked". The Obambi movement is predicated with the notion that if we are soft, warm, and fuzzy enough (with the offering of amble muffin baskets and lots of hugs), then this will improve our global standing.

9) it's liberal moral by TruthMonger

It's liberal moral ambiguity that's damaging our reputation world wide..

and so far US conservatives have managed to plug many of the immoral left-wing holes that keep popping out - gay marriage this week is a another big hole.

But the immoral water is still rising.

10) Since when do libs care by mattm

Since when do libs care about morality? How about the morality of letting murderers loose to commit more murder? What a bout the morality of falsely portraying U.S. soldiers as murderers and rapists while boo-hooing about the 'deplorable' conditions at Gitmo (where the detainees live better than they ever did at home)?

Mika is a nepot whose old man has always sought America's defeat (he's the one who said "Vietnam is the Waterloo of the WASP elites" - no bigotry intended, I'm sure); and Capehart is an idiot if he really thinks Oblama would protect us from terrorism rather than make us more vulnerable to it, and if he's just saying that, he's a liar.

11) And, as always.. by Cape Conservative

And, as always, the liberal thinkers conveniently overlook how many babies are murdered every day in this glorious country - "with such a bad reputation" - many more deaths than have occurred in Iraq or Afghanistan! Talk about morality!!!!!!

Indeed these prisoners at Gitmo are living better than they have in their entire lives! I'd welcome them being put into a "general prison population" - no special food - no opportunity to throw their disgusting feces/urine bombs at the guards - but plenty of opportunity to be BFs with Bubba!

12) Shakespeare had a point by KC Mulville

Crime and war are too different things. In a war, you don’t wait for your opponent to inflict damage before you move against him. When you follow the rules of war, you attack someone as soon as you learn he belongs to the enemy. In a crime, you can’t do that. You have to wait for your opponent to attack before you go after him. That’s why terrorism can’t be fought as a criminal prosecution. We need to get to the terrorists before they strike.

Lately, though, the issue is whether a war is fought by soldiers or by lawyers. In a war, the soldiers are the heroes. With a criminal prosecution, lawyers run the show, and obviously they want to be the heroes. Is it any surprise that Obama and the majority of the Supreme Court are trying to get lawyers to wage the war?

The worry about Guantanamo is that there are people have been detained who shouldn’t have been. Even in a war, you need to know that the person you’re attacking really does belong to the enemy. But soldiers are already held accountable for those decisions, and soldiers are already punished for shooting or detaining innocent people. The disaster of the recent Supreme Court ruling is that lawyers have decided that soldiers should be held accountable for those decisions as if those decisions were not made on a battlefield. These lawyers (i.e., the Supreme Court and Obama, et al) are trying to deny there is a war, or that the war makes any difference. They ruled that these cases must be decided in civilian federal courts. Frankly, I think it’s the clearest example of lawyers’ hubris – i.e., that lawyers think everything should be conducted under their supervision, even war.

13) Blood on the hands by CPT_Claw

But those 5 SCOTUS judges and their water-carriers will simply say that the terrorists were not predisposed to hating and wanting to REALLY kill us until their mistreatment at GITMO at the hands of the evil Bush administration.

If we had ONLY treated them fairly from the beginning, they'd NEVER have done it and would have stayed at home and been commissioners of their local Fantasy Jihadi Football League.

14) Thank You by SAM-OH

Mark,

I happen by via Hot Air; I'm always glad that I do because you do a very solid job. This was a great post.

Although I don't think the Obama "Alex" ad is all that effective (don't get me started), this position that Obama has taken (and insisted on digging in his heels on) is a complete loser. Sorry to sensationalize this, but McCain and every Republican running for national office should be looking to run ads with interviews with surviviving spouses and surviving adult children of 9/11 victims in which they're asked how THEY feel about extending criminal due process rights to detainees and how safe THEY feel with the prospect of an Obama presidency. Obama's position--echoed by Susan Rice and advertised by the likes of Mika and Capeheart--is terrifying.

Others can parse what Mika REALLY meant. I'm convinced what she means is that those who don't agree with her, Obama, and the like are immoral. In so doing, she's taken Obama's San Francisco remarks to a much higher level, and it sure sounds like a great 527 ad to me. I don't give a rat's a** what our soldiers do to detainees, but it certainly sounds as if the scheme in place was procedurally sufficient--military tribunal followed by an appeal channeled to the DC Circuit.

You describe this as a "policy equivalent of Dukakis-in-a-tank." I submit that McCain or the 527s or both need a mugshot of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed matched with his rap sheet and Obama's voice talking about "those folks" down there in Gitmo. This is Willie Horton material.

Shifting gears somewhat, have you noticed how Obama talks about being tougher with domestic opponents than global opponents? As I read elsewhere last week, Obama wants to impose more "conditions" before debating McCain than he wants to impose before meeting with leaders of rogue nations. Likewise, last week, he alluded to Sean Connery's lines from "The Untouchables" about beating back Al Capone when talking about McCain and Republicans, but he's soft on detainees suspected of horrible acts.

One last thing. For my edification, Jake Tapper seems to be the only MSM journalist actually trying to get in Obama's grill and to check under his hood. Am I correct? If not, please speak up. And can you identify any other journalists who are actually doing their job?

15) No offense by ThatDude

No offense to your suggestion, since it would work on the sensationalist dems, but it's not a campaign the reps should run. Victim parading is the left's tactic(possible exception being unborn babies). I think we should drill them with this issue, but instead of appealing to emotion, use common sense. I would still like to believe that Americans as a whole are still driven by logic and that the right should continue to appeal through that avenue.

I don't see how Obama could be called "tough" here. He backs away from every political challenge by declaring any opposition to be unfair and only moving when everything is heavily in his favor.

There's a few other msm journalists who are slowly revealing Obama, but I agree that Jake Tapper is one of the first to give the tough questions. My issue is still that there is no real follow through when the empty suit slips out of giving a real answer. The question is whether the general public will recognize this. It reminds me of Wallace's interview with Clinton. Billy tried to sneak his way out of answering and became aggressive when actually forced to address the issues. Somehow many people saw the interview as a triumph by Bill when it was obvious that he can't handle facing real questions. In time we will see whether the general public picks up on what's really happening here.

16) No Offense Taken by SAM-OH

That Dude:

You are probably right about pulling emotional strings. But I wasn't thinking so much of victimhood as I was thinking of downright anger at the idea of returning to a policy that led to 9/11.

17) Our Supreme Court took a by NL207

Our Supreme Court took a similar oath of office, including the words "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States"

At least four of the present justices, Stevens, Ginsburg, Kennedy, and Breyer, have publicly admitted replacing the Constitution with Foreign Law when deciding recent cases, (hyperlinks below):

Kennedy: "and ([o]f even more importance, writes Kennedy) a 1981 decision by the European Court of Human Rights holding that a Northern Ireland law proscribing consensual and private homosexual conduct was invalid under the European Convention on Human Rights."

Stevens: "Last year, Justice John Paul Stevens cited foreign law in a footnote when the majority banned executions of mentally retarded convicts. Stevens noted that "within the world community, the ... death penalty for crimes committed by mentally retarded offenders is overwhelmingly disapproved.""

Breyer.

Ginsburg.

These acts violate the Justices' oath of office. They should be impeached and removed. By promising to appoint more like minded Judges, Barack Obama would be violating HIS oath of office were he ever elected President,.

18) Bush should reinstate Clinton/Gore policy of rendition.... by Gary Hall

Bush should reinstate Clinton/Gore policy of rendition....

Reference items for this bit of fun:

1.) Transcript of Director Hayden's Interview with Charlie Rose

2.) This from White House intelligence advisor Richard Clarke's book] - my bold.

RICHARD CLARKE - Snatches, or more properly "extraordinary renditions," were operations to apprehend terrorists abroad, usually without the knowledge of and almost always without public acknowledgement of the host government. . . The first time I proposed a snatch, in 1993, the White House Counsel, Lloyd Cutler, demanded a meeting with the President to explain how it violated international law. Clinton had seemed to be siding with Cutler until Al Gore belatedly joined the meeting, having just flown overnight from South Africa. Clinton recapped the arguments on both sides for Gore: Lloyd says this. Dick says that. Gore laughed and said, "That's a no-brainer. Of course it's a violation of international law, that's why it's a covert action. The guy is a terrorist. Go grab his ass."

And shortly thereafter, Bill Clinton ordered the CIA to establish the US program of extraordinary rendition (PDD#39); the idea being that we could ship them off to you know who in Egypt - so that they could be tortured to get information out of them.

President Bush should simply announce to the MSM, "Fine. Even Charlie Rose came to understand, once he was exposed to a few facts and history (no thanks to you folks), that it was better that we abandon the policy of renditioning these terrorists to places were we had no control and where God knows what was done to them, to our own facilities were we did have much more civil rules in place and where the media would have knowledge and access to. So, effective today, I am reinstating the Gore/Clinton policy of internationally illegal covert action better known as the "go grab their ass and ship them off to foreigners to be tortured" policy. Good day.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2008/06/18/obama-terrorist-rights-joe-calls-out-mika-moral-choices

-- June 18, 2008 6:17 PM


Sara wrote:

House Leaders Announce $165 Billion War Funding Deal
Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Washington — Democratic and GOP leaders in the House announced agreement Wednesday on a long-overdue war funding bill. They say President Bush will sign it.

The agreement on the war funding bill, announced by Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., and Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, also paves the way for a quick infusion of emergency flood relief for the Midwest, an extension of unemployment payments for the jobless and a big boost in GI Bill college for veterans.

It (will) provide about $165 billion to the Pentagon to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan for about a year. That's enough time for Bush's successor to set Iraq policy.

"This is an agreement that has been worked out in a bipartisan way that I think is acceptable to both most Democrats and most Republicans and to the White House," Boehner said.

The agreement drops restrictions on Bush's ability to conduct the war and gives him almost all of the funding he sought well over a year ago for Iraq and Afghanistan.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,368607,00.html

-- June 18, 2008 6:38 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Laura,

Thanks for your comments. I'm looking for some more good books to read. I think you mentioned a few weeks ago, in a post of yours, two books you were impressed with. Do you remember what they were? One of them might have been something to do with nuclear terrorism.

-- June 18, 2008 6:43 PM


Sara wrote:

McCain seen as best choice for economy
Fri Jun 13, 2008
By Jennifer Ablan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate John McCain's tax policies have given him an edge as the better man for the economy, various Wall Street experts said at this week's Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.

McCain plans to extend the Bush administration's tax cuts, eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax, and slash corporate taxes. Obama, who has derided the Arizona senator's plans, has pledged to raise taxes on the wealthy and introduce a broad range of refundable tax credits.

"My personal opinion is I would argue that McCain is probably the better candidate for the economy and that is more or less because of his tax policies," James Caron, head of global rates research at investment bank Morgan Stanley in New York, said at the Reuters Summit this week.

"In this environment that we're in right now, the last thing you want to have is higher taxes and taking money out of the consumers' pockets," he added.

David Bianco, chief U.S. strategist at UBS Investment Research, told the summit that Wall Street would welcome McCain with open arms. "My view is that McCain is better for the market," Bianco said.

"The market will respond to McCain corporate tax cuts," said participant Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Wall Street may like McCain but it is betting on the Democratic senator from illinois.

The securities and investment industry has given more campaign contributions to Obama than any other candidate, totaling nearly $7.91 million and exceeding McCain's $4.15 million.

And Corporate America as a whole likes the Democrats.

For the first time in a generation, most major U.S. business sectors are donating more campaign money to Democrats than to Republicans, according to a political fund-raising watchdog group.

Six of 10 business sectors tracked by the Center for Responsive Politics had given more money to Democrats as of late April in all federal races, marking a shift over the past year with profound implications for Republicans.

That said, prominent Wall Street economist Henry Kaufman said it is too soon to formulate who would move the economy in the right direction.

"Both of the two candidates thus far have not expressed in detail their financial and economic programs," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1334411920080613

-- June 18, 2008 7:23 PM


Sara wrote:

'Danger Signs' as Clinton Supporters Resist Obama
By JAKE TAPPER
June 17, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama has emerged from his bruising battle for the Democratic presidential nomination with only a six point lead over Sen. John McCain.

A ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Obama, D-Ill., leading McCain, R-Ariz., by a margin of 48 percent to 42 percent. It is a surprisingly small lead considering that the incumbent Republican president George Bush is at record lows and public opinion overwhelmingly feels the country is on the "wrong track".

No Bounce, Resistance from Clinton Supporters

The poll indicates that Obama did not get the traditional "bounce" in the public's opinion by finally defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and getting her endorsement as the Democratic presidential candidate.

While leading among young voters and other key demographics, ABC News chief Washington correspondent George Stephanopoulos saw what he called "danger signs" for Obama.

Obama Targets Key Groups

Obama has been trying to shore up key components of the geographic and demographic components he will need to win the presidency.

Women, particularly married white women, however, may be a problem for Obama, according to the Washington Post/ABC poll.

It showed that McCain has a 20 point advantage over Obama among married white women, a group that George Bush also won in the last two presidential elections.

Stephanopoulos told GMA that the figure was a "danger sign" for Obama. "This is a huge gap that Obama has to close if he's going to do well."

A Question of Experience...

Obama faces an additional problem that only half of the voters saying he has the necessary experience to be president.

"If you look at the key question of experience, that may be what's holding him back," Stephanopoulos said. "Only 50 percent of voters say that Barack Obama has the experience to be president. A full 46 percent say, no, he doesn't have the experience . . . That's one of the reasons they are going on the foreign trips."

Obama has talked publicly about going to Iraq, but ABC News has learned that he is adding Afghanistan to his travel itinerary.

The crucial political battle appears to be shaping up around independent voters between the age of 30 and 64.

"Those middle of the road independent voters, they are breaking right down the middle," Stephanopoulos said. "This is going to be a key battleground for both campaigns going into November."

While Obama runs well among younger voters, they are not always reliable when it comes to showing up at the polls. Meanwhile, he is 12 points behind McCain among the more reliable older voters.

In addition, nearly a quarter of Clinton's voters are holding back on their support, according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll.

"If that number stays that high, it will be difficult for Barack Obama to win," Stephanopoulos said.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=5183218&page=1

-- June 18, 2008 8:47 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Sara:

Your post about why the Dinar has not been revalued can be answered. I agree with you that Iran is a part of the reason. In my view, there are many factors keeping the the Dinar from revaluing. Other reasons included the economy, IMF, GOI, HCL, and the SOFA agreement.

The Economy

As I have said many times James Carvell's line "its the economy stupid" is certainly applicable concerning Iraq. Unfortunately, oil alone will not sustain a peaceful and proserpous Iraq. I saw recent figures saying Iraq should see an 8% growth. Sustainable growth requires all sectors to come on line. While Oil is an important first step. It is necessary that agriculture and manufacturing also take its part in the economy of Iraq.

Related to the economy is the necessity of Iraq to continue to move toward a free market based economy. Foreign investment is needed to help stimulate a strog GDP and GNP. Finally, related to the economy is reconstruction. The Iraqi's must speed up (with or without U.S. help)putting this country back together.

IMF

The Iraqi government still has responsibility to the International Monetary Fund. The current managed rate is because of the IMF. The managed rate and its slow movement is to communicate the Dinars stability to the IMF. Release from IMF oversight may not occur until the return of sovergnty.

GOI

While we all have been critical from time to time regarding the government. Now Al-Malaki seems to beginning to take on the role for which he was elected for. Regardless of past incomptentcies or past successes; it is imperative the GOI/Parliment pass both the SOFA and HCL laws. SOFA will restore Iraqi Soverignty and thereby place them incharge of their own destiny. To this point the monetary policy of the CBI has been directed by others. With the restoration of soverignty, the CBI can direct its own monetary policy.

The Hydro Carbon Law will unlock one of the worlds vast oil reserves. In conjunction with those reserves is the potential for Iraq to be much more prosperous than Saudi Arabia and Dubai. The Hydro Carbon Law and much needed foreign investment will force Iraq to monetize its oil reserves, hence the introduction of the Petro Dinar.

Even if all of these other variables are fulfilled the Central Bank of Iraq and consequently the GOI have no idea on how to obtain the real rate of the Iraqi Dinar. I do not think the Iraqi's know how to revalue, revert, or free float this currency. I am unconvinced speculators are keeping them from altering the exchange rate in a significant manner. For the CBI to alter the exchange rate requires understanding of the effects on fiscal and monetary policy on the economy at large. I believe M2 does has had an effect on the growth of the Dinar.

I am sure there are other itmes that could be mentioned including the completion of an infastructure that includes providing its citizens with enough electricity and water. I believe this post answers the question why the Dinar has not revalued. I welcome your comments.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 18, 2008 10:20 PM


Sara wrote:

Rob N;

Thank you. Very kind of you to reply to my post. I read it with interest. :)

As you said, Iran is a factor, as is the economy. Though I think with the economy - some say the Dinar should RV first then the economy will pick up, and some say the economy must pick up first before the RV. I am of the opinion that the Dinar RV will help to create a strong and vibrant economy (like the Marshall Plan stimulus President Bush has referred to recently in his speeches) and that without that infusion of buying power for the Iraqis, the efforts toward a strong economy are hobbled. Reconstruction and infrastructure also will happen as the Iraqis get more oil revenue, learn better how to allocate their resources, and are able to trade at market value for goods outside their country (reconstruction, infrastructure materials and personnel, etc.) This means that those with expertise need equitable access to their oil fields to make the Iraqi people able to prosper. Again.. the Oil law fits in here and the security of the SOFA to secure the environment for them to work and become prosperous... all of which we can see have no hinderance to being put into place.

I was encouraged recently to see the government of the United States supporting Iraq's removal from the IMF article which would allow them greater sovereignty. Again, the US championing their independence and helping the Iraqi cause (with little credit for doing so and amid contentious accusations of self-interest, as always). Still, it is a step toward Iraq being comfortable with the removal of the managed rate. I feel the Iraqis can remove that rate at any time once the impetus and desire to do so is in them. I feel the Dinar could be RVed at any time, subject only to the Iraqis fulfilling their end of things, since there appears to be no obstacles or objections by any party to anything, including their release from the IMF requirements (or any other impediment as far as I can see.) The other factors or needs for electricity and water (services) which you mention would be remedied by a stronger international currency which can compete and bring in providers of those services at a better rate (or goods for Iraqis to create those services themselves), if the Dinar were at its real (greater) worth.

I agree that the CBI has to direct its own monetary policy, but I believe that they are in the position of doing so even now, yet are choosing to not do the revaluation. I think it is up to the Iraqis what their currency is valued at and that they are no longer beholden to anyone, but CAN revalue at any time, if they so wish. I see no impediment to their RV of the Iraqi Dinar from any of these things on our discussion list, though they are good things and would help boost this wise economic decision once the move has been made.

You said, "I do not think the Iraqi's know how to revalue, revert, or free float this currency." - But I do not think they are without the advice to do so, and I believe that they have the expertise at their fingertips and have availed themselves of it freely over the years since the US entered Iraq. I think the Iraqis do not choose to change the Iraqi Dinar rate due to just such "expert advice" - external influences against doing so from "interested parties" within Iraq and perhaps associated with ties to Iran or other political interests who advise them away from what they see as a winning move for America. You must admit that America has enemies and both Iraq and America could win in the RV, hence the opposition from those who have the most at stake to lose (including Iran and even influential Democrats, to mention only two interested political parties). I agree that speculators alone are not a factor, but as part of a deal which is packaged in religious garb about making the "infidels" prosper (that includes us speculators) I believe that it can have some effect on the Iraqi desire to revalue if framed to the Iraqis as a duty they must perform in order to please God (and no, Iran is not above such religious manipulation for their own political gain.)

You also say, "For the CBI to alter the exchange rate requires understanding of the effects on fiscal and monetary policy on the economy at large." Yes, and I believe the CBI has this understanding. They have not been sitting on their hands all this time doing nothing. They have been learning and training, and I think they are more than capable of understanding the effects of their actions. I just think they haven't had the "guts" (or willingness) to plunge in and do what needs to be done while others have been telling them NOT to (for their own self-centered reasons, IMHO). I believe the Iraqis have all in place so that they CAN alter the exchange rate at will, but are choosing not to, and no other thing needs to be done to give them the green light to go ahead and do so. These other factors we have spoken of can aid in supporting their choice to revalue, but they are no longer waiting on any one of them in order to be able to do this change in valuation. I believe the ball is now in the Sovereign Iraqi court.. and they are not playing ball - for whatever they choose to be their own reasons. My frustration is with their reluctance to do what they can do, but choose not to do - RV the Dinar. And I am frustrated with their contentment with being seen as weak and unable (due to these factors you bring up) when they are in actuality calling the shots and COULD Revalue at will.

I do not see Iraq as the underdog and America as the big bully. They are on equal terms, as President Bush and the dialog between Iraq and the US shows clearly. (example - President Bush recently - "we are there at the request of the Iraqis.") The Iraqis love to portray it like the Iraqis are the little guys and America the big power with all the cards and influence, but Iraq is holding an equal partnership relationship as far as the cards go. They are negotiating from a position of strength. And, I believe, they alone have the power to revalue at will. The US cannot FORCE them to revalue their currency. It must be an internal IRAQI decision.

From reading the Dinar RV rumor boards, I have seen where - time and time again - the US side has said it CAN and appears about to happen. Then, it does not. And the only factor I can see which is continuing to stop the revaluation happening is not any of these factors you and I have discussed here. It is the reluctance on the part of the Iraqis to do this move because it has not yet been their will to do so. These factors you mention have a part to play in the ongoing story of Iraq, but I do not believe that they any longer play a part in the equation of Dinar Revaluation. The Iraqis alone are the ones calling that shot. Period.

My frustration is because the Iraqis are enjoying appearing weak and dependent when they could RV and be strong and independent, standing on their own two feet and aiding the recovery of their economy by this move. It is a bit like wishing a grown young adult to leave home who doesn't want to go because he likes the benefits of being a dependent. I get a bit tired waiting for Iraq to grow up and take on its adult economic responsibilities, instead of preferring to appear to be living under the influence of "home."

I believe the Iraqis can be on their own economically and survive well and independently if they would just make the choice and actually do the step. Perhaps they are afraid.. or listening to others who wish to influence them not to for their own ends. But in my opinion, there is nothing holding back the RV of the Dinar.. except the unwillingness of the Iraqis themselves - and that means the full cooperation of Mr. Maliki, who would be the one to make the announcement of the revaluation. His lack of doing what is necessary for the good of the Iraqi people and economy is shameful, considering all the good it could do for his country. I truly believe it is in his hands to announce the revalue and he has refrained from doing so for whatever reasons - selfish, fearful, immaturity, an apparent "defiance" or rebellion against American authority (characterized by the Iranians as American Imperialism?), religious manipulation.. the factors are endless which may be in play. I can only imagine what factors keep the Iraqis - and Mr. Maliki in particular (who would be the announcer) - from the right step of doing the RV.. but to my mind, it isn't any one or all of the factors you mentioned here - because I believe that the power to do the RV it is already NOW fully vested in a Sovereign Iraq.. and they are choosing not to do it.

So, again, I ask you - what can we do? How can we make them do what is the right thing to do when it is their decision to make and they are not making it? Perhaps.. only pray for the right thing to be done, as is always the answer when it is beyond our ability to affect the outcome directly. For myself, as I stated before, if they RV, I will stay on this board until after the elections in November. But I do find myself hoping they will make the move rather sooner.. than later - for the good of both countries - and us investors, too. (I am getting tired, goodnite.)

Sara.

-- June 19, 2008 3:36 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Do you know where Roger is? Would sure like to know his take on all of this.

A long ong time ago, ( maybe more than 2 years) someone suggested that there could possibly someone in the thick of this, playing with all of us investors, and we would be nothing but a good laugh, down the road.....starting to feel that way, isn't it?

When I get perplexed over a situation where reason and logic seem to be aborted, I try to get things down to real simple and basic.

Unfortunately, where the Dinar is concerned it takes me straight to skepticism.

Some of my thoughts:

Standing back and looking at the region as a whole, I surmmize that there are more factions that are anti- American, than pro.
Those factions see Americans as imperialists, spoiled rotten, and not worthy of any more advantages than they already perceive we deserve or should have.

Looking more globaly, the secular progressives have on their agenda to dismantle the middle-class, as we have known it for generations.

One of the heads of the SP movement is none other than George Soros, who has positioned himself as a financial and political powerhouse in the middle east.

ASSUMING that millions of middle class Americans are invested in the Dinar, and would become extremely wealthy overnight should "they" decide to RV, it would not flow with the agenda that they have been implementing since the days of Lenin!

I know this feeds into the "conspiracy theory" thinking..........but in the absence of reason and logic....it becomes a valid consideration.....no?

Truthfully, I have placed most of my hope on the RUMOR that Bush holds more than $200,000 of Dinars as invesment. pretty weak and truly a longshot!

Carole

-- June 19, 2008 8:57 AM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Another thought..

Considering that we have GIVEN ( without any provision or repayment) $500 billion, and precious human lives to get Iraq to where they are today, and they are not even considering giving us a price break on oil, causing millions to suffer here in the US, how much more likely are they to feel compelled to RV the Dinar?

I haven't even factored in the Religious anamosities either! The Quran is the Quran...is the Quran......and no matter how you cut it, whether read and beheld by an extremist or even the most moderate Muslim....we are the Infidels and the enemy of Allah!

Now factor in that these people have no loyalty, even to their own! It has been a way of life, for thousands of years to ignore human suffering, and sell out their own relatives, friends, and leaders ...for any or no reason!

I coud go on and on, but you already sound depressed and defeated....at least where this investment is concerned.

Sooooooo, count it all joy........and cast your cares....... and give thanks in all things.....

:) :)

Carole

-- June 19, 2008 9:13 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq and Washington reaching compromises

18/6/2008



Iraqi foreign minister Hoshiyar Zebari says the negotiations over the long term strategic agreement between Washington and Baghdad is making progress due to the positive response the American side showed to the Iraqi demands, but also pointed that the two are still at odds on some issues.

In an interview with Wall street Journal issued on Tuesday, Foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari, who is visiting Washington, stated that U.S officials had shown compromises through giving up their demands about the private security companies’ immunity and forming an Iraqi-U.S centre which would take care about scrutinizing the future missions of U.S forces in Iraq.

And the Iraqi side in turn, has shown acceptance to allow U.S control the Iraqi airspaces, Zebari was quoted by the paper as saying.

Iraqi government and U.S are engaged in detailed negotiations to draft a strategic long term agreement between the two countries, and the agreement is due to be signed by the end of next month.

But as the Iraqis claim the negotiations has triggered due to demands by the U.S side that would violate Iraqi state sovereignty.

Zebari told the paper Iraqi side has also gave up from its demand to commit the U.S take the responsibility of protecting Iraq from the internal and foreign threats.
“In case of an internal coup or Iranian invasion, U.S would only provide Iraqi forces with logistic and intelligence support, not necessarily taking part in battles” Zebari added.

But the Iraqi minister admitted that there were disputes still stand between the two sides, which were mainly about the number of U.S bases in Iraq, U.S forces’ independency to arrest any Iraqi they consider a threat and the deadline for signing the deal.
(www.kurdsat.tv)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 9:14 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Deals With Iraq Are Set to Bring Oil Giants Back

By ANDREW E. KRAMER
Published: June 19, 2008

BAGHDAD — Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq, 36 years after losing their oil concession to nationalization as Saddam Hussein rose to power.

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U.S. Blames Shiite Leader for Deadly Baghdad Blast (June 19, 2008) Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP — the original partners in the Iraq Petroleum Company — along with Chevron and a number of smaller oil companies, are in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry for no-bid contracts to service Iraq’s largest fields, according to ministry officials, oil company officials and an American diplomat.

The deals, expected to be announced on June 30, will lay the foundation for the first commercial work for the major companies in Iraq since the American invasion, and open a new and potentially lucrative country for their operations.

The no-bid contracts are unusual for the industry, and the offers prevailed over others by more than 40 companies, including companies in Russia, China and India. The contracts, which would run for one to two years and are relatively small by industry standards, would nonetheless give the companies an advantage in bidding on future contracts in a country that many experts consider to be the best hope for a large-scale increase in oil production.

There was suspicion among many in the Arab world and among parts of the American public that the United States had gone to war in Iraq precisely to secure the oil wealth these contracts seek to extract. The Bush administration has said that the war was necessary to combat terrorism. It is not clear what role the United States played in awarding the contracts; there are still American advisers to Iraq’s Oil Ministry.

Sensitive to the appearance that they were profiting from the war and already under pressure because of record high oil prices, senior officials of two of the companies, speaking only on the condition that they not be identified, said they were helping Iraq rebuild its decrepit oil industry.

For an industry being frozen out of new ventures in the world’s dominant oil-producing countries, from Russia to Venezuela, Iraq offers a rare and prized opportunity.

While enriched by $140 per barrel oil, the oil majors are also struggling to replace their reserves as ever more of the world’s oil patch becomes off limits. Governments in countries like Bolivia and Venezuela are nationalizing their oil industries or seeking a larger share of the record profits for their national budgets. Russia and Kazakhstan have forced the major companies to renegotiate contracts.

The Iraqi government’s stated goal in inviting back the major companies is to increase oil production by half a million barrels per day by attracting modern technology and expertise to oil fields now desperately short of both. The revenue would be used for reconstruction, although the Iraqi government has had trouble spending the oil revenues it now has, in part because of bureaucratic inefficiency.

For the American government, increasing output in Iraq, as elsewhere, serves the foreign policy goal of increasing oil production globally to alleviate the exceptionally tight supply that is a cause of soaring prices.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry, through a spokesman, said the no-bid contracts were a stop-gap measure to bring modern skills into the fields while the oil law was pending in Parliament.

It said the companies had been chosen because they had been advising the ministry without charge for two years before being awarded the contracts, and because these companies had the needed technology.

A Shell spokeswoman hinted at the kind of work the companies might be engaged in. “We can confirm that we have submitted a conceptual proposal to the Iraqi authorities to minimize current and future gas flaring in the south through gas gathering and utilization,” said the spokeswoman, Marnie Funk. “The contents of the proposal are confidential.”

While small, the deals hold great promise for the companies.

“The bigger prize everybody is waiting for is development of the giant new fields,” Leila Benali, an authority on Middle East oil at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in a telephone interview from the firm’s Paris office. The current contracts, she said, are a “foothold” in Iraq for companies striving for these longer-term deals.

Any Western oil official who comes to Iraq would require heavy security, exposing the companies to all the same logistical nightmares that have hampered previous attempts, often undertaken at huge cost, to rebuild Iraq’s oil infrastructure.

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U.S. Blames Shiite Leader for Deadly Baghdad Blast (June 19, 2008) And work in the deserts and swamps that contain much of Iraq’s oil reserves would be virtually impossible unless carried out solely by Iraqi subcontractors, who would likely be threatened by insurgents for cooperating with Western companies.

Yet at today’s oil prices, there is no shortage of companies coveting a contract in Iraq. It is not only one of the few countries where oil reserves are up for grabs, but also one of the few that is viewed within the industry as having considerable potential to rapidly increase production.

David Fyfe, a Middle East analyst at the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based group that monitors oil production for the developed countries, said he believed that Iraq’s output could increase to about 3 million barrels a day from its current 2.5 million, though it would probably take longer than the six months the Oil Ministry estimated.

Mr. Fyfe’s organization estimated that repair work on existing fields could bring Iraq’s output up to roughly four million barrels per day within several years. After new fields are tapped, Iraq is expected to reach a plateau of about six million barrels per day, Mr. Fyfe said, which could suppress current world oil prices.

The contracts, the two oil company officials said, are a continuation of work the companies had been conducting here to assist the Oil Ministry under two-year-old memorandums of understanding. The companies provided free advice and training to the Iraqis. This relationship with the ministry, said company officials and an American diplomat, was a reason the contracts were not opened to competitive bidding.

A total of 46 companies, including the leading oil companies of China, India and Russia, had memorandums of understanding with the Oil Ministry, yet were not awarded contracts.

The no-bid deals are structured as service contracts. The companies will be paid for their work, rather than offered a license to the oil deposits. As such, they do not require the passage of an oil law setting out terms for competitive bidding. The legislation has been stalled by disputes among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties over revenue sharing and other conditions.

The first oil contracts for the majors in Iraq are exceptional for the oil industry.

They include a provision that could allow the companies to reap large profits at today’s prices: the ministry and companies are negotiating payment in oil rather than cash.

“These are not actually service contracts,” Ms. Benali said. “They were designed to circumvent the legislative stalemate” and bring Western companies with experience managing large projects into Iraq before the passage of the oil law.

A clause in the draft contracts would allow the companies to match bids from competing companies to retain the work once it is opened to bidding, according to the Iraq country manager for a major oil company who did not consent to be cited publicly discussing the terms.

Assem Jihad, the Oil Ministry spokesman, said the ministry chose companies it was comfortable working with under the charitable memorandum of understanding agreements, and for their technical prowess. “Because of that, they got the priority,” he said.

In all cases but one, the same company that had provided free advice to the ministry for work on a specific field was offered the technical support contract for that field, one of the companies’ officials said.

The exception is the West Qurna field in southern Iraq, outside Basra. There, the Russian company Lukoil, which claims a Hussein-era contract for the field, had been providing free training to Iraqi engineers, but a consortium of Chevron and Total, a French company, was offered the contract. A spokesman for Lukoil declined to comment.

Charles Ries, the chief economic official in the American Embassy in Baghdad, described the no-bid contracts as a bridging mechanism to bring modern technology into the fields before the oil law was passed, and as an extension of the earlier work without charge.

To be sure, these are not the first foreign oil contracts in Iraq, and all have proved contentious.

The Kurdistan regional government, which in many respects functions as an independent entity in northern Iraq, has concluded a number of deals. Hunt Oil Company of Dallas, for example, signed a production-sharing agreement with the regional government last fall, though its legality is questioned by the central Iraqi government. The technical support agreements, however, are the first commercial work by the major oil companies in Iraq.

The impact, experts say, could be remarkable increases in Iraqi oil output.

While the current contracts are unrelated to the companies’ previous work in Iraq, in a twist of corporate history for some of the world’s largest companies, all four oil majors that had lost their concessions in Iraq are now back.

But a spokesman for Exxon said the company’s approach to Iraq was no different from its work elsewhere.

“Consistent with our longstanding, global business strategy, ExxonMobil would pursue business opportunities as they arise in Iraq, just as we would in other countries in which we are permitted to operate,” the spokesman, Len D’Eramo, said in an e-mailed statement.

But the company is clearly aware of the history. In an interview with Newsweek last fall, the former chief executive of Exxon, Lee Raymond, praised Iraq’s potential as an oil-producing country and added that Exxon was in a position to know. “There is an enormous amount of oil in Iraq,” Mr. Raymond said. “We were part of the consortium, the four companies that were there when Saddam Hussein threw us out, and we basically had the whole country.”
(www.nytimes.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 9:18 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Though Iran may say they are ready to negotiate, there are underlying motives behind everything they say and do. Watch and see what happens next.
__________________________________________________________

Iran says ready to negotiate on nuclear incentives

By Frank Nyakairu and Wangui Kanina

KAMPALA (Reuters) - Iran said on Thursday it was ready to negotiate over a new package of economic incentives put forward by major powers seeking to persuade Tehran to curb its nuclear work.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference in the Ugandan capital Kampala that the six -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- should also take a serious look at Tehran's own proposals.

"We have informed them of our readiness to negotiate. The package given by the P5+1 countries is currently under consideration and at the appropriate time Teheran will give its reactions," said Mottaki, who is in Uganda for a meeting of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

After handing over the offers to Iran on Saturday, EU policy chief Javier Solana reaffirmed the six powers wanted Iran to suspend enrichment during talks on the offer -- a precondition the Islamic Republic has repeatedly rejected.

Solana said on Thursday he had yet to receive Iran's formal reply.

"For the moment there has not been any reply," Solana told reporters in Brussels.

Iran says it is ready to review the proposals, but Tehran seems in no hurry to respond.

Analysts also believe Tehran is using delaying tactics to press ahead with atomic work. An Iranian official said on Thursday time was on Iran's side.

"We will review the package but not the part about enrichment freeze ... We are moving forward with our work and Iran's nuclear capability is being constantly augmented," said the official, involved in talks with Solana in Tehran.

"Each passing day we are more advanced in nuclear technology, it gives us an upper hand in talks."

A senior Iranian nuclear official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters on Tuesday Iran's answer would not be a straight yes-or-no answer, adding that it would be a "discussable response".

The U.N. Security Council has hit Iran with three rounds of sanctions for refusing to halt its enrichment work, as demanded by the council.

Western powers have warned Iran it would face more sanctions if it spurns the offer.

MOTTAKI CRITICISES AMERICANS

As a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran insists it has the right to master the complete nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium enrichment, for peaceful purposes. It says it wants nuclear power only to generate electricity.

Mottaki said the United States should stop lecturing Iran on its nuclear ambitions. Tehran and Washington cut diplomatic ties shortly after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution.

"America is not in the position to be happy or unhappy with our peaceful nuclear activities. It is a country that is currently testing a fifth-generation nuclear bomb," he said.

"America should limit itself to its borders and stop interfering with other nations. The time for ordering other nations is over. We will continue to realize our rights definitely," he added.

The incentives package offers Iran the chance to develop a civilian nuclear program with light water reactors -- seen as harder to divert into bomb-making than the technology Tehran is now developing -- and legally binding fuel supply guarantees.

It also offers trade and other benefits, including the possibility of Iran buying civil aircraft from the West.

The last three resolutions were relatively limited in scope -- including targeting individuals, some firms with military links and several banks. Although analysts say they have had some economic impact, Iran brushes them off and says its windfall oil earnings are cushioning the blow.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 9:23 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Minister of oil behind electricity crisis, says A'raji 19/06/2008 16:42:00

Baghdad (NINA)- Sadrist MP Bahaa al-A'raji held minister of oil Hussein al-Shahristani responsible for the "electricity crisis" in the country. In an interposition during a parliamentary discussion of a report submitted by the parliamentary
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 10:25 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Bush receives Zebari, discuss solutions for pending issues 19/06/2008 14:54:00

Baghdad (NINA)- Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari discussed, during a meeting in the White House with president George Bush, appropriate solutions to the outstanding issues to reach an agreement that meets the immediate needs of the parties.
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 10:27 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Does the following article make sense?
__________________________________________________________

Sued Firm Wants Shari'a Law as Defense
June 19, 2008
The News and Observer
RALEIGH, N.C. - To defend itself against a lawsuit by the widows of three American Soldiers who died on one of its planes in Afghanistan, a sister company of the private military firm Blackwater has asked a federal court to decide the case using Islamic law, known as Shari'a.

The lawsuit "is governed by the law of Afghanistan," Presidential Airways argued in a Florida federal court. "Afghan law is largely religion-based and evidences a strong concern for ensuring moral responsibility, and deterring violations of obligations within its borders."

If the judge agrees, it would essentially end the lawsuit over a botched flight supporting the U.S. military. Shari'a law does not hold a company responsible for the actions of employees performed within the course of their work.

Erik Prince, who owns Blackwater and Presidential Airways, briefly discussed the lawsuit in a meeting Wednesday with editors and reporters at The News & Observer. Prince was asked to justify having a case involving an American company working for the U.S. government decided by Afghan law.

"Where did the crash occur?" Prince said. "Afghanistan."

Joseph Schmitz, Prince's general counsel, said Presidential Airways was asking the federal judge to follow past U.S. cases where courts have applied another country's laws to resolve damages that occurred overseas.

The crash of Blackwater Flight 61 occurred in the rugged mountains of central Afghanistan in 2004, killing three Soldiers and the three-man crew.

The widows of the Soldiers sued Presidential Airways, Blackwater's sister company, which was under contract with the U.S. military to fly cargo and personnel around Afghanistan.

Presidential Airways argued that the lawsuit must be dismissed; legal doctrine holds that Soldiers cannot sue the government, and the company was acting as an agent of the government.

Last year, a series of federal judges dismissed that argument.

In April, Presidential asked a federal judge in Florida to dismiss the lawsuit because the case is controlled by Afghanistan's Islamic law. If the judge agrees that Afghan law applies, the lawsuit would be dismissed. The company also plans to ask a judge to dismiss the lawsuit on the constitutional grounds that a court should not interfere in military decision-making.

The National Transportation Safety Board has blamed the crash on Presidential for its "failure to require its flight crews to file and fly a defined route" and for not providing oversight to make sure its crews followed company policies and Pentagon and federal aviation safety regulations.
(www.military.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 19, 2008 10:29 AM


Sara wrote:

Yes, Rob N.. the last article you posted makes sense.
Mankind tends to use whatever is in their own best interests.. including using Shari'a law.
QUOTE:

If the judge agrees, it would essentially end the lawsuit over a botched flight supporting the U.S. military. Shari'a law does not hold a company responsible for the actions of employees performed within the course of their work.

It isn't a question of religion, but of winning the lawsuit.

We humans tend to do what we think is in our best interests. Many use religion as a cover for their own purposes. Such is the case here and also in the case of IRAN with Iraq, I believe. In the case of Iran, they have such incredibly strong national interest that when it comes to Iraq, they will do whatever is necessary to secure their own interests - and they are not afraid to play the "religion" card toward their own ends. Besides, it is very hard to spend time with God and find out what He wants and says, since often it is against our own thoughts and wills. Most people who claim a religion let its tenants (the law) inform some of their understanding, but not to the point where it interferes with their practice. Truly listening to God may end up cross purposes to our own wills.

Fortunately for this case you cite, the rules of the religion will let the company off the hook.. so why not take that loophole? If it were against their interests or interfered with their practice you can bet they would say that "stupid" religion was getting in the way and they needed separation of church and state - just as they do here about the Christmas displays or prayers in school/public places or teaching basic morality and civics by drilling children with the Ten Commandments. Religious practice or principle isn't the central question here.. winning the lawsuit is. This case you cite is just another utilitarian use of religion, not a reverential, respectful and truly believing use of it.

Sara.

-- June 19, 2008 11:45 AM


mattuk wrote:

Iraq to contract with four Western oil companies: report
Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:16am BST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Four Western oil companies are close to signing oil contracts with the Iraqi government that will return them to the country for the first time in 36 years, the New York Times reported in its online edition.

Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), BP Plc (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), which had partnerships with the Iraq Petroleum Co. before the industry was nationalized by Saddam Hussein, as well as Chevron (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and a number of smaller oil producers, have been in talks with the oil ministry, it said.

The newspaper cited information from the ministry, oil companies and an American diplomat.

The deals are expected to be announced on June 30 and will be awarded on a no-bid basis. They will be an extension of current agreements in which the companies are providing free advice and training to the Iraqis.

A total of 46 companies, including those from China, India and Russia have memorandums of understanding to provide that assistance to Iraq but were not awarded contracts.

The deals for the four companies will be service contracts, in which they are paid for their work rather than offered a license for Iraq's oil deposits.

(Reporting by Matt Daily, Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

-- June 19, 2008 11:47 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

Did I seem to be discouraged to you? I was very tired when I wrote that last nite or rather, in the wee hours of the morning. But because I still believe God is over this venture and led me into it, I am waiting on HIM to revalue the Dinar, not Maliki or the CBI, so I have hope and am not discouraged. Since God holds all men's lives and hearts in His hand, I presume when He wills it to go, He will change the situation so it will happen. It is just far too slow and frustrating to me, as I can see it is what Iraq needs right now, and should be doing for their own good. It also would be good for us - that being the West and us investors in the Dinar, of course (including the UK and Canadians on this board).

Since you brought up the spiritual I will add one more thought on it. It is also a strategic battle between both sides spiritually - the light and darkness. I see the RV as a win for the light side, no RV (or delay) as a win for the dark side. The immediate economic benefits I think we can all see - for the Iraqis and for us. But also, in a way, this takes monetary power from those now holding it and gives it others. And money is power. So it is a power shift. Those who now have that monetary power will lose some montetary power to us who will take it. It is as simple as that. There is only so much power or wealth on earth and this RV moves wealth around from one set of hands to ours. You mentioned Soros as a big player. Large money interests such as he is are threatened by the creation of "new wealth" because the influx of new people will influence the realms where the rich now have their money. The pool is only so large and we are seeking by this investment to move into and maybe even widen it. It will send ripples across the pond and change things. Those who have money now look at the entrance of "the great unwashed" (us) in much the same way the aristocracy of the past once looked at suddenly allowing a few million new Dukes and Dutchesses. Competition for the mansions around town would go up and they see themselves getting less of the pie, or paying higher prices, until the new mansions are constructed. So the money people - many of them - may not find it a very palatable idea - the ordinary people getting a piece of the pie of the monetary power. It upsets the status quo.

For the powers of darkness, this is an even greater threat. They have many people suffering now under them, and they know how kind-hearted and generous newly wealthy people can be - which upsets their plans to oppress people. Imagine the Iraqi people now able to afford goods from overseas easily and no longer desperate in their daily living standard. Surely this removes those who are desperate enough to be recruited for planting roadside bombs or suicide bombings, etc? I have heard so many Dinarians say they will give to charity (and especially to rebuilding Iraq) when the Dinar comes in. Think of all the GOOD that will do. Surely the powers of darkness, who are BAD, don't wish this to happen and will seek to use whatever means are at their disposal to stop this GOOD from happening? Including playing on self-interest or religiously intolerant notes within a religion - in this case, the religion of Islam. Every time Maliki goes to Iran they show closer and closer ties as "brothers." I believe that Ahmadinejad is a charming person.. just like I expect the devil himself to be. I somehow think, if you met the devil himself in person, you would find him to be charming, amiable, friendly, engaging, a good speaker, attractive, charismatic.. and completely wrong-headed about moral things as to what is right or wrong - with excuses for evil which can almost seem plausible. (Remember, God said that IF POSSIBLE, the devil could deceive even the very elect.) Hitler comes to mind with his justification of genocide, and.. come to think of it.. applying that to abortion.. that description sounds a lot like Obama and his radical prodeath position - including his support of partial birth abortion. Hmmmm. In spite of Huckabee saying not to "demonize" Obama, the fact is, his positions on moral issues do line up with demonic thinking. Traditional moralists of the past would have been horrified by his position - particularly on partial birth abortion. Or that people would allow such a person with such immoral opinions to run for the highest office in the land.

Anyway, I agree with you that "conspiracy theory" thinking does come into play when dealing with many of these Middle Eastern nations, because they live in backward cultures as timbitts has pointed out. The little girl who was killed still bothers me.. that her life was not precious and they ended up owing the court money because she was valued so little. So when dark notes are played in such dark places, they can sometimes resonate with the people because there is so much backward thinking, as that example showed. This includes anti-American sentiment and the thoughts that the West is only immoral and wicked (because we are not part of their religion). This can be used as a tool of satan toward forcing the Iraqis to not do what is in their own best interests (or America's) in RVing the Dinar.. and it ends up, in actuality, furthering the political aims of the mullahs of Iran and their political agenda, under the guise of being religious and "defending Islam." False religious cover can be very convenient and useful, (see Rob N's article today above) - which is why, often, the free exercise of religion is abridged or forbidden to people. Because it keeps them in bondage and fear and conspiracy theorist thinking.. which is useful politically to manipulate people's thinking - including into not RVing the Dinar. I know the atheists argue to remove all exercise of religion to remove the false religious cover, but in actuality, complete freedom of religion accomplishes this aim much easier. Because Western ideals are based on intrinsic worth of people whose value is expressed as precious due to GOD saying they are valuable in the best religious traditions. Religious values such as "Love your neighbor as yourself" and "there is neither male nor female in Christ Jesus" are values which can dispel such ignorance and bring to light the equality and dignity of human worth - and these religious values HAVE brought such worth here in the West where we would value that little girl, though her own culture did not. It was not atheism and removal of all religion which brought the West to our opinions of human worth and value, but within the tradition of the full expression of religious belief. Freedom of thought and religion allows for human worth and value to be expressed in the best traditions of religion and only abridges freedom where it counters what is intuitively understood to be a false use of religion for other more selfish aims. As Jesus said, you can judge a tree by its fruit - by what comes out of it. Was justice served in the case of the little girl's death and the compensation given to her family? It is a simple enough test, that one. Are the best interests of the Iraqi people served by remaining without the RV to support and help their daily lives and overall economy? Also a simple enough test... religious blanketing notwitstanding. What is the FRUIT of this course of action to the national interests of the Iraqi people?

I am not depressed nor defeated in my thinking, only frustrated that the right thing is not being done. I believe that God is in control and will overcome the obstacles to His will in this matter of Dinar revaluation as in all others. The positive things we read in the news can be stepping stones to opening the eyes and understanding of those who are in the position of revaluing. And, of course, if God wills, He can remove anyone with "obstacle thinking" from power and put in others - either through the election process, or by an act of His Sovereign power (like Russert/Kennedy lately). I do still believe God is in control.. the problem is - His timetable often feels far too slow for my taste. I suppose that means I should be more patient.. I suppose God's patient ways are always best.. but they are not our ways or our thoughts, though they must be always very wise. I will wait for Him to remove the obstacles to His will.. and keep praying it will be soon that His will prevails on earth as it is in heaven.. whatever that means must be done to accomplish His will on earth.

Sara.

-- June 19, 2008 1:12 PM


mattuk wrote:

BAGHDAD, June 17 (UPI) -- The Kirkuk oil field in northern Iraq could be producing 70,000 barrels more per day, but a dispute between Iraq's central and Kurdish regional governments has kept the needed equipment gathering dust.

Two weeks ago the security forces of the two governments, which don't always work in league, had a 24-hour standoff over the northernmost section of the oil field, called Khurmala Dome.

"Some people came and stopped our production," said Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani.

According to various media outlets and sources who spoke to United Press International on condition of anonymity, the Peshmerga Kurdish military force forced an Iraq Drilling Co. team off the site, claiming Kurdistan Regional Government sovereignty over it.

"The federal government gave an ultimatum: Within 24 hours if that obstacle is not removed, we'll take drastic action, and within 24 hours it was removed and production was resumed," Shahristani said. "That is one of the three domes of the Kirkuk field, which is a producing field, and nobody has the right to stop the Ministry of Oil from producing." He vowed to use security forces if it happens again.

"We are now producing about 30,000 barrels per day from the Khurmala Dome, and we are drilling there, there's a couple of rigs there," he said. "And we'll be developing that field."

It's not clear, however, how the field will be developed.

The State Company for Oil Projects, part of the Oil Ministry, awarded a $136 million contract in December 2004 to Iraq-based KAR Group to provide engineering and equipment for developing Khurmala Dome to a 100,000-bpd producer.

All the work under that contract is completed, but SCOP has not started using the equipment.

Meanwhile, the Oil Ministry is in the final stages of negotiations with Shell, reportedly to pay $500 million for the oil giant to provide technology, equipment and training to boost oil production from the entire Kirkuk field by 100,000 bpd within two years.

Similar deals with five other fields are being negotiated with other global oil companies, but details are not being released by the Oil Ministry.

The development at Khurmala Dome may be stalled by Baghdad as talks evolve over the Shell deal -- which raises questions of redundancy in work, performance and payment.

But ongoing disputes over the direction Iraq's oil sector should take are likely a large factor.

Negotiations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government are to start again this week over a series of items including a draft federal oil law and related oil revenue and administrative legislation; the dozens of deals the KRG has signed to explore for and produce oil in their territory; and disputed territories just outside the official KRG boundaries, which include most of the Kirkuk field.

Khurmala Dome, however, is officially in Erbil province, part of the KRG. But drafts of the oil law puts discovered and producing fields under the control of the central government, sparking a dispute over what role the federal government plays within the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

"Khurmala Dome is not in a disputed area. It's in Kurdistan, period," KRG Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami said, adding he considered it a non-producing field. "People say KRG are not allowing them to work in Khurmala. What that really says is it's under KRG control and we'd like to go get it back from them."

Baghdad also accuses the KRG of signing oil deals for exploration blocks that fall outside the official KRG territory. Hawrami says the KRG is the administrator of the territory and thus is allowed to sign deals.

"You show me the green line in the constitution," he said. "You show me a green line that officially anybody signed on it. There are many green lines. But what counts really is what is currently under the KRG authority."

Last November the KRG awarded a service contract to develop Khurmala to the new Kurdistan National Oil Co., a KRG-owned company that is still being organized.

The field will be developed to 250,000 bpd, according to a KRG statement announcing the contract, as well as a 50,000-bpd refinery. Associated natural gas from the field development and fuel oil from the refinery will be supplied to the KRG Electricity Ministry.

Some time in the second half of 2007 KRG security forces were accused of preventing the central government from doing work at Khurmala Dome.

SCOP Director General Falah al-Khawaja told UPI last November, "They prevented us from continuing our work, which is actually against the law," though he refused to say who "they" were.

-- June 19, 2008 2:25 PM


Laura Parker wrote:

Tim Bitts,

I think I recommended "Epicenter" and "Dead Heat" entitled books. The author of both books is Joel C. Rosenberg. Both books are on terrorism.

Laura Parker

-- June 19, 2008 11:48 PM


mattuk wrote:

House passes Iraq war funds bill backed by Bush
Fri Jun 20, 2008 1:52am BST

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved enough new money to wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for another year, while abandoning attempts to set deadlines opposed by President George W. Bush for withdrawing American combat troops.

By a vote of 268-155, the House approved the funding for the two wars. Most of the $161.8 billion the Pentagon will get, which is slightly less than Bush requested, will be used to fight in Iraq.

The measure, which the Bush administration backed, is expected to be debated by the Senate within several days. It was not yet clear whether the Senate would amend the bill.

Some Democrats expressed frustration with an inability to force troop withdrawals from Iraq, despite their party's majority status in the House.

"Let us hope this is the last time another dollar will be spent without constraint, without conditions," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat who opposes the Iraq war.

The debate over the future of the Iraq war is expected to shift to the presidential campaign, where Democrat Barack Obama has called for prompt troop withdrawals, while Republican John McCain has talked about the possibility of a long military presence in Iraq.

As the House voted on money for the war, an anti-war protester sitting in a visitor's gallery in the chamber threw red-stained dollars at lawmakers before being escorted out by security.The Pentagon has said that without a new infusion of war money, personnel layoffs would begin next month and it would not be able to pay active duty soldiers.

According to the House Appropriations Committee, the new money will cover war costs through mid-2009, well beyond when a new U.S. president takes office on January 20.

With this new batch of money, Congress will have appropriated more than $800 billion for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq since 2001. That money is piled onto a huge federal debt that has grown since Bush took office in 2001, giving fiscal conservatives in Congress heartburn.

Last month, the House passed a different version of the war-funding bill, which would have called for immediately starting troop withdrawals from Iraq and with the goal of completing the removal of combat soldiers by the end of 2009.

There are nearly 150,000 U.S. troops fighting in Iraq.

But in the face of Republican opposition in the Senate and a certain veto by Bush, Democrats who control the House gave up, at least for now, trying to legislate troop withdrawals.

House Minority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, continued voicing support for the 5-year-old war, despite its unpopularity among voters. "I'm glad we're there," he said.

"Our effort in Iraq is important," Boehner said earlier. "Building a growing democracy in a part of the world that has never known it will pay great dividends over the next 50 years."

Besides providing war funds, the measure would significantly expand college education benefits for veterans of the two wars and their families at an estimated cost of about $63 billion over 11 years.
It also would prohibit the construction of permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq and require Baghdad to match, dollar-for-dollar, U.S. reconstruction aid.

-- June 20, 2008 5:45 AM


mattuk wrote:

Oil giants return to Iraq

Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Total set to sign deal with Baghdad

By Patrick Cockburn
Friday, 20 June 2008

Nearly four decades after the four biggest Western oil companies were expelled from Iraq by Saddam Hussein, they are negotiating their return. By the end of the month, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Total will sign agreements with the Baghdad government, Iraq's first with big Western oil firms since the US-led invasion in 2003.

The deals are for repair and technical support in some of the country's largest oilfields, the Oil Ministry in Baghdad said yesterday. The return of "Big Oil" will add to the suspicions of those in the Middle East who claimed that the overthrow of Saddam was secretly driven by the West's desire to gain control of Iraq's oil. It will also be greeted with dismay by many Iraqis who fear losing control of their vast oil reserves.

Iraq's reserves are believed to be second only to Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, but their exploitation has long been hampered by UN sanctions, imposed on Iraq after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.

The major oil companies have been eager to go back to Iraq, but are concerned about their own security and the long-term stability of the country. The two-year no-bid agreements are service agreements that should add another 500,000 barrels of crude a day of output to Iraq's present production of 2.5 million barrels a day (b/d).

The companies have the option of being paid in cash or crude oil for the deals, each of which will reportedly be worth $500m (£250m). For Iraq, the agreements are a way of accessing foreign expertise immediately, before the Iraqi parliament passes a controversial new hydrocarbons law.

But they mean that the four oil companies, which originally formed the Iraq Petroleum Company to exploit Iraqi oil from the 1920s until the industry's nationalisation in 1972, will be well-placed to bid for contracts for the long-term development of these fields. The oilfields affected are some of the largest in Iraq, from Kirkuk in the north to Rumaila, on the border with Kuwait. Although there is oil in northern Iraq, most of the reserves are close to Basra, in the far south.

Since the US invasion, Iraqis have been wary of foreign involvement in their oil industry. Many are convinced that the hidden purpose of the US invasion was to take over Iraqi oil, but the Iraqi Oil Minister, Hussein Shahristani, has said that Iraq will hold on to its natural resources. "If Iraq needs help from international oil companies, they will be invited to co-operate with the Iraqi National Oil Company [Inoc], on terms and conditions acceptable to Iraq, to generate the highest revenue for Iraq".

Inoc's technical expertise has deteriorated sharply during the long years of sanctions. Iraq is currently exporting 2.1 million b/d and is expecting to have oil revenues of $70bn this year, but its government administration is too dysfunctional and corrupt to rebuild the electricity or water supply systems. The government has $50bn in the Federal Bank of New York.

Mr Shahristani has been highly critical of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for auctioning off oil concessions in Iraqi Kurdistan without reference to the oil ministry in Baghdad. In an interview with The Independent last year, he said Inoc would never do business with any oil company that signed up with the KRG, and he also doubted if the oil could be exported without pipelines. "Are they going to carry it out in buckets?" he asked.

Several of the small oil companies who have signed contracts in Kurdistan are hoping that in the long term there will be an agreement between the Kurds and the central government and they will then sell out to the majors at a large profit.

The technical support agreements, as the service agreements are known, may open the door to Iraq for the majors. Mr Shahristani has said that Iraq will open up the same fields for bidding for long-term development projects soon. "We're going to announce the first licensing round by the end of this month or early next month," he said.

The high price of oil means that Iraq is not under immediate pressure to maximise its oil revenues. The Iraqi parliament has suspected anything which looks like giving foreign companies ownership of Iraq's oil through a production sharing agreement.

The nationalisation of Iraq's oil is one the few acts of Saddam Hussein's long years in power which is still highly popular, and Iraqi members of parliament are fearful of anything that looks like back-door privatisation in the interests of foreigners.

Big four have history of control

For the four oil giants, the new agreements will bring them back to a country where they have a long history. BP, Exxon Mobil, Total and Shell were co-owners of a British, American and French consortium that kept Iraq's oil reserves in foreign control for more than 40 years.

The Iraq Petroleum Company (once the Turkish Petroleum Company) was formed in 1912 by oil companies eager to grab the resources in parts of the Ottoman Empire.

The company was formalised in 1928 and each of the four shareholders had a 23.75 per cent share of all the oil produced. The final 5 per cent went to Calouste Gulbenkian, an Armenian businessman.

In 1931, an agreement was signed with Iraq, giving the company complete control over the oi fields of Mosul in return for annual royalties. After Saddam's coup in 1958, nationalisation came in 1972.

Source: www.independent.co.uk

-- June 20, 2008 5:53 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

It appears that I was mistaken about the passage of the SOFA agreement. The following article contradicts my previous opinion on the subject. When it comes to profitible outcome of this investment if/when my conjectures are wrong I am glad to admit it.
__________________________________________________________

POLITICS: US Concessions Rescue Floundering Iraq Security Deal
By Mohammed A. Salih

WASHINGTON, Jun 19 (IPS) - Despite apparent serious disagreements reflected in a series of incongruent statements by senior officials of the U.S. and Iraqi governments, they appear to have made a breakthrough in negotiations for a new security pact.

The fate of the pact appeared especially uncertain when, on Jun. 9, the Associated Press quoted an unnamed senior George W. Bush administration official as saying that it was "very possible" that the two countries would not reach a deal and that they would have to extend a United Nations mandate authorising the presence of U.S. troops on Iraqi soil.

Four days later, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gave unexpected weight to speculation about the deal's failure when he said during a visit to neighbouring Jordan, "We have reached a dead end, because when we started the talks, we found that the U.S. demands hugely infringe on the sovereignty of Iraq, and this we can never accept."

U.S. officials moved quickly to downplay al-Maliki's remarks. One day later, President Bush declared during a press conference with his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, "If I were a betting man, we'll reach an agreement with the Iraqis." Then, to ward off widespread criticism that the agreement imposes several unpopular conditions on Iraq, Bush added, "We're going to work hard to accommodate their desires."

This optimistic tone was further amplified when Iraq's foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari announced Tuesday in Washington that, "I believe a deal is within reach," attributing it to U.S. "flexibility". He said that he expected all issues to be resolved by the end of July.

However, Zebari warned, "We have to be realistic about the obstacles." These include the thorny question of whether the U.S. military will have the authority to detain Iraqi citizens and hold them in U.S. custody.

Zebari's optimism appeared to stem from a U.S. willingness to drop a demand that foreign civilian contractors operating in the country should enjoy immunity from Iraqi laws. Washington has also reportedly agreed to reduce its demand for 58 military bases to a number in the "low dozens".

The U.S. insists it will not use Iraq to launch an attack against other countries in the region, such as Iran or Syria, Zebari was quoted as saying -- although, as IPS reported last week, some of the language in the Mar. 7 draft agreement appears to be deliberately misleading and leaves open the possibility for the U.S. to respond "defensively" to threats to its troops or other interests.

Bush has just six more months left in the White House, meaning that time is more on the side of the Iraqis than the U.S. administration. Recognising that, and given domestic opposition in Iraq to the deal, Iraqi leaders appear to want to pressure the U.S. to make as many concessions as possible.

The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that Baghdad and Washington are negotiating provides a legal basis for the future presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. The U.S. has around 80 similar agreements with other countries around the world, including Japan, Germany and South Korea.

But critics allege the agreement with Iraq is far broader than any SOFA deal ever signed and borders on a treaty, which under the U.S. constitution requires Congressional approval. The Republican-led White House is fiercely opposed to involving legislators in the process, fearing its Democratic rivals may not agree with the provisions of the pact favoured by Bush administration.

The two countries have also agreed to negotiate a "Strategic Framework", which will regulate bilateral relations in the areas of politics, economics and culture.

Faced with stiff domestic opposition, the Iraqi government has run into great difficulty trying to sell the deals to the public.

Opinions in Iraq on the SOFA pact are diverse and in some cases deeply divided. While some reject it on nationalistic or religious grounds or both, others support a deal but want a clear timetable for eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops to avoid an "open-ended occupation".

"The Status of Forces Agreement is difficult because it involves sovereignty, especially for Iraqis who do not want to be regarded as 'puppets' of the U.S.," Phebe Marr, an author and scholar of Iraq's modern history, told IPS.

The fact that negotiations are ongoing provides a unique opportunity for politicians to gain popularity by taking a vocal stance against it.

Amid all this, Muqtada al-Sadr's Shiite movement is playing a smart game by opposing the deal and demanding a referendum on it, as they declared through a mass protest in late May. This strategy both strengthens their anti-U.S. credentials and gains the favour of the masses by insisting on public approval for any agreement.

If the two countries fail to reach a deal, there will be two alternatives: either the Iraqi government will request an extension of the U.N. mandate for another year, or the U.S. will have no legal basis to remain in Iraq and be forced to pull out. This last appears highly unlikely, as Iraq still does not have a reliable, well-trained army to establish order or an air force to protect its airspace and borders.

"I think the government in Baghdad wants an agreement while Bush is still in the White House. It is not clear how supportive a new U.S. administration might be of a continuation of the present arrangement. The idea that the Iraqi government wants the U.S. to leave tomorrow is mistaken. Their continuance in power is at stake," said Marr.
(www.ipsnews.net)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 20, 2008 9:54 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Ministry of Industry builds storage tanks for Diwaniyya Refinery in IQD 17 billion deal

The General Company for Designs and Industrial Consultancies, one of the enterprises of the ministry of industry and minerals, has completed the building of 17 storage tanks for the Diwaniyya Refinery at a cost of IQD 17.264 billion.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 20, 2008 9:55 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

If only they had succeeded.
__________________________________________________________

Ahmadinejad says "enemies" tried to kill him in Iraq
Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:37am EDT 2007 By Parisa Hafezi

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the United States and its allies of plotting to assassinate him during a visit to neighboring Iraq in March, state radio reported on Friday.

"Based on reliable intelligence, our enemies had plans to kidnap and kill your servant (Ahmadinejad). But we intentionally made last minute changes in our schedule," the radio quoted Ahmadinejad telling a meeting of clerics in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom on Thursday.

Although he did not identify the United States by name, he used the usual term "enemies" to refer to Washington.

A senior U.S. military official in Baghdad said: "The Coalition is unaware of any threats to President Ahmadinejad's life during his

visit to Iraq."

During the first visit by an Iranian leader to Iraq since the neighbors fought an eight-year war in the 1980s, Ahmadinejad cancelled his scheduled visit to Shi'ite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf in southern Iraq.

The presidential office said at the time the trip was cancelled for security reasons.

"The enemies learned about the changes when we already had left Iraq. They were shocked," the radio quoted him as saying.

The United States accuses Iran of funding, arming and training Shi'ite militias in Iraq. Iran denies the charge.

Ahmadinejad, who often berates Washington in fiery speeches, used his visit to Baghdad to call on the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq, insisting their presence is to blame for the country's sectarian violence.

Iran and the United States cut diplomatic ties shortly after the revolution when the U.S. embassy was seized by hardline students and 52 Americans were taken hostages for 444 days.

Ahmadinejad said his warm reception by Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders were in stark contrast to the rushed and secretive visits of U.S. President George W. Bush.

"I was the first head of government who made previous announcements about my trip to Iraq," he was quoted as saying.

"British and American leaders had stayed only a few hours in Iraq and had not stayed there for two days, like I did."

Both Iran and Iraq are run by Shi'ite majorities and many of Iraq's Shi'ite leaders were in exile in Iran during Saddam Hussein's rule. The countries also have historical economic, political and cultural links.

Tehran and Washington are also at odds over Iran's nuclear program, which Washington says is a cover to build nuclear weapons. Tehran denies the charge, saying it needs nuclear power to generate electricity.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 20, 2008 10:04 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

The U.S. and the missing circle of violence in Iraq
By Fatih Abdulsalam

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20 June 2008 (Azzaman)
Print article Send to friend
And finally the U.S. occupation troops have revealed the name of the person behind the deadly car bombing that killed at least 60 people in Baghdad’s Hurriya district, a predominantly Shiite neighborhood.

The revelation of the identity of the attacker is rather unprecedented. Hundreds of such bombings have occurred in Baghdad, killing thousands of people. The blame was routinely directed at al-Qaeda terrorists and their mainly Sunni sympathizers.

The U.S. was then mired in a murderous insurgency in the so-called Sunni Triangle for the control of which it lost its prestige as a military superpower as well as thousands of troops and thousands of tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Analysts have the right to wonder why the U.S. decided to reveal the name of the perpetrator at this particular juncture of its ongoing war in Iraq.

The name as it is clear has Iranian and Shiite connotations. And given the fact that the bombing took place in a predominantly Shiite neighborhood, there will be many in Iraq and perhaps beyond Iraq to raise an eyebrow about the U.S. tactics and propaganda.

Whatever these tactics, the bombing sends a clear message to the Iraqi people. The roots of this message are that there is clear persistence from several quarters to resurrect the deadly and bloody campaign of car bombings and other attacks not only in Baghdad but also in other major Iraqi cities.

The Iraqi government must wake up and take matters into its own hands. It must realize that the seeds of discord, sectarianism and tactics to achieve political ends, for which U.S. politicians are first class masters, will aggravate conditions in an already torn and imploded country.

So long as the sectarian and ethnic militias are there, Iraq will have no peace.

And shockingly enough, the U.S. now has its own militias, which it trains, arms and finances ostensibly in the fight against al-Qaeda.

Militias and mercenaries, whether raised by the U.S. or Iraqi factions, play similar roles.

They are all bent on the destruction of the country. But Iraq’s tragedy is that all militias, whether those supposedly fighting al-Qaeda, or those belonging to the country’s disparate ethnic and sectarian factions, have one thing in common: to hell with national reconciliation and national interests.

It is sarcastic indeed to see the U.S., like other sectarian and ethnic Iraqi factions immersed in the game of militia maneuvering.

All indications are that Iraq is heading towards a new wave of violence and that the current relative security in certain areas is only temporary.

Secretive and filthy agendas are being cooked by militia leaders in Iraq whether political factions or states.

Many Iraqis thought the U.S. came to help them get rid of oppression and tyranny whether by rulers like Saddam Hussein or warlords like their current militia leaders.

Little did they know that the U.S. itself would end up having its own militias whose tactics are no different from those of rival groups.

This is not the right way to search for the missing circle feeding the violence in Iraq.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 20, 2008 10:08 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Barzani calls in Rome to support Kurdistan economic progress 20/06/2008 11:12:00

Baghdad (NINA)- Kurdistan Region's President Masoud Barzani -head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party- has called representatives of world's democratic parties, participating in Democrats Alliance Conference in Rome to support Kurdistan region.
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 20, 2008 10:15 AM


cornishboy wrote:

Next Week to Reach a Final Agreement

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Commission expects oil parliamentary ratification of the oil and gas soon
Published 19.6.2008, 19:00

Uzmatik / Baghdad

Vice-Chairman of the expected oil and gas committee in the House of Representatives deputy Iraqi Alliance list common Abdul Hadi ABOLHASSANI Adoption Law of the oil and gas in Parliament during the next few.

Between ABOLHASSANI in an interview with "Uzmatik", today, Thursday, that "the President Nnigervan Barzani's Kurdistan province, will visit the Iraqi capital next week to reach a final agreement with the central government on the adoption of the law of oil and gas in the parliament."

ABOLHASSANI He added that the central government and the Government of the Territory "have decided to return to the original version of the law approved in February in 2007, the Iraqi Council of Ministers to negotiate around them and find agreement on the contentious points in the law, especially regarding the powers of the Territory in signing contracts with oil companies, Without returning to the central government. "

The ABOLHASSANI to resolve differences between the government and the Iraqi Kurdistan region would end any refusal to approve the law in the Iraqi parliament, "because of objections to the rest of the paragraphs of the law by the other political blocs can be easily overcome," as he put it.

Vice Chairman of the Committee on the oil and gas in the Iraqi parliament said that "the law of oil and gas will not pass without reciprocal concessions by the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government on the condition that these concessions do not affect the interest of Iraq."

He pointed out that ABOLHASSANI Adoption Law of the oil and gas would give "strong impetus to the Iraqi Government to conduct negotiations with global oil companies to bring large investments in Iraq, and at low rate of interest."

It is noteworthy that the law of oil and gas, which gives the regions and governorates the right conclusion of contracts without consulting the Ministry of Oil in the central government, has seen strong opposition from most political bloc consisting of the Iraqi parliament, which said that it paves the way for the partition of Iraq.

http://209.85.171.104/translate_c?hl...omy/3013.shtml

-- June 20, 2008 10:36 AM


Sara wrote:

Now THAT is what I call "obstacle removing"!!

Chuckle.

These are truly answers to prayer.. Thanks for the positive posts, all. :)

Thanks for all the recent great articles on the progress happening with Iraq - with the oil and gas law soon to be passed (next week), the SOFA deal going well, success in continuing operations dealing with the terrorists, economic progress (the 17 billion spent on the now constructed and operational storage tanks will help more supply and inject revenue), return of the oil giants to Iraq, the House funding Iraq war spending for a good year, and the article on the potential for 70,000 more barrels of oil from a Kirkuk field once they get a dispute negotiated (that won't be forever, either). These articles/events, along with the US contemplating opening up its own oil taps on the offshore reserves, may spur a quick resolution to everything in Iraq.. and the Dinar RV. (God willing, Amen!) :)

Things are looking bullish for the fortunes of Iraq and moving forward of the currency of Iraq and its upward valuation as an internationally recognised and traded-at-a-real-value on the international exchange (God willing).. soon!

Thanks again, all.
Great news! :)

Sara.

-- June 20, 2008 1:01 PM


Sara wrote:

McCain Calls for End to Offshore Drilling Ban
by Associated Press
Monday, June 16, 2008

ARLINGTON, Va. — Sen. John McCain said Monday the federal moratorium on offshore oil and gas drilling should be lifted, and individual states given the right to pursue energy exploration in waters near their coasts.

With gasoline prices rising and the United States chronically dependent on foreign oil, the Republican presidential contender said his proposal would “be very helpful in the short term resolving our energy crisis.”

McCain also suggested giving the states incentives, including a greater share of royalties paid by companies that drill for oil, as an incentive to permit exploration.

Asked how far offshore states should be given control of drilling rights, he said that was a matter for negotiation.

He offered no other details for his proposal, which he is expected to describe more fully on Tuesday in an energy speech.

McCain’s presidential rival, Sen. Barack Obama, opposes an end to the moratorium, a spokesman said.

The current ban covers an estimated 80 percent of U.S. coastal waters.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/16/mccain-calls-for-end-to-offshore-drilling-ban/

-- June 20, 2008 1:15 PM


Sara wrote:

Bush Urges Congress to Lift Offshore Drilling Ban
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Fox News

WASHINGTON — President Bush on Wednesday put his weight behind a move underfoot in Congress to lift a 27-year-old ban on oil exploration off U.S. shores as gasoline prices reach ever higher, and he cast blame on Democrats for Americans' pain at the pump in an election year that is focusing more heavily on economic issues.

"For many Americans, there is no more pressing concern than the price of gasoline. Truckers and farmers, small-business owners have been hit especially hard. Every American who drives to work, purchases food or ships a product has felt the effect, and families across the country are looking to Washington for a response," Bush said, speaking from the White House Rose Garden. He took no questions.

Mentioning $4-per gallon gasoline more than once, Bush said, "My administration has repeatedly called on Congress to expand domestic oil production. Unfortunately, Democrats on Capitol Hill have rejected virtually every proposal, and now Americans are paying the price at the pump for this obstruction.

"Congress must face a hard reality: Unless members are willing to accept gas prices at today's painful levels or even higher, our nation must produce more oil and we must start now."

Bush said gasoline prices could eventually be eased with a four-point plan, the main plank of which is to open up the Outer Continental Shelf to oil exploration.

When Republicans held the majority, the House twice voted to lift the ban, only to have the legislation die in the Senate. The Senate last month by a 56-42 vote rejected a GOP energy plan that would have allowed states to avoid the federal ban if they wanted energy development off their coast.

Congress imposed the drilling moratorium in 1981 and has extended it each year since, by prohibiting the Interior Department from spending money on offshore oil or gas leases in virtually all coastal waters outside the western Gulf of Mexico and in some areas off Alaska.

The offshore drilling moratoria have been in effect since 1981 in more than 80 percent of the country's Outer Continental Shelf.

White House Press Secretary Dana Perino told FOX News on Wednesday that while the country moves to energy alternatives, like battery-operated cars, fuel supply has to be increased somehow.

"The president is saying, 'Let's not rely on regimes outside of our own destinies, let's try to use more of our own oil that we have right here at home.' And if we can get the revenue from it, and if we can have the benefit (we can) put back into or plow that investment back into research and development for alternatives and renewables that we're going to use in the future," she said.

Bush might benefit from increasing public support. As gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon recently, consumers have been urging the federal government to come up with a means to slow the sudden rise, including by reducing dependence on foreign producers.

Pat Creighton, a spokesman for Rep. John Peterson, R-Pa., who introduced the amendment to lift the ban that failed in a subcommittee on Monday but was to be re-introduced on Wednesday, suggested the decision to delay was for another reason.

"I think it's because our message is resonating," Creighton told FOX News. Democrats denied the assertion.

On Monday, GOP presidential candidate John McCain made lifting the federal ban on offshore oil and gas development a key part of his energy plan. McCain said states should be allowed to pursue energy exploration in waters near their coasts and get some of the royalty revenue.

Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate for president, opposes lifting the ban on offshore drilling and said there is "no way that allowing offshore drilling would lower gas prices right now. At best you are looking at five years or more down the road."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,368221,00.html

-- June 20, 2008 1:48 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Laura, thanks.

To all: Great posts and great news on Iraq lately. Things are definitely looking up!

-- June 20, 2008 2:02 PM


Sara. wrote:

Rumor has it that the other Dinar sites are down..
and that they went down just after posting that the Dinar HAD Revalued.
Which would be nice, if the rumor turns out to be true (!!)
Wouldn't it? :)

Sara.

-- June 20, 2008 8:30 PM


Sara. wrote:

TIMBITTS - Don't go visit any relatives or friends in Toronto...
If I read my geography right.. you are provinces away from Toronto..
best to stay away.

NOTE: The reason the Hezbollah says it won't attack the US (but may attack Toronto, Canada) is that there is a right wing hawk in the Whitehouse.. notice how that makes a difference to terrorists, America?
QUOTE:

Baer says his Hezbollah contacts told him an attack against the US was unlikely because Iran and Hezbollah did not want to give the Bush administration an excuse to attack.

===

EXCLUSIVE: Hezbollah Poised to Strike?
Officials Say "Sleeper Cells" Activated in Canada
By RICHARD ESPOSITO and BRIAN ROSS
June 19, 2008

Intelligence agencies in the United States and Canada are warning of mounting signs that Hezbollah, backed by Iran, is poised to mount a terror attack against "Jewish targets" somewhere outside the Middle East.

Intelligence officials tell ABC News the group has activated suspected "sleeper cells" in Canada and key operatives have been tracked moving outside the group's Lebanon base to Canada, Europe and Africa.

Officials say Hezbollah is seeking revenge for the February assassination of Hezbollah's military commander, Imad Mugniyah, killed by a car bomb in Damascus, Syria.

The group's leaders blamed Israel, an allegation denied by Israeli officials.

There is no credible information on a specific target, according to the officials.

Suspected Hezbollah operatives have conducted recent surveillance on the Israeli embassy in Ottawa, Canada and on several synagogues in Toronto, according to the officials.

Latin American is also considered a possible target by officials following Hezbollah's planning.

"They want to kill as many people as they can, they want it to be a big splash," said former CIA intelligence officer Bob Baer, who says he met with Hezbollah leaders in Beirut last month.

"They cannot have an operation fail," said Baer, "and I don't think they will. They're the A-team of terrorism."

Alarms were first raised in Canada, where as many as 20 suspected Hezbollah members have been under surveillance after as many as four suspected "sleeper cells" were activated, including one known as "Rashedan," intelligence officials tell ABC News. The members also received instruction to send their family members home to Lebanon, according to officials.

Officials have also reported that a known Hezbollah weapons expert was followed to Canada, where he was seen at a firing range south of Toronto, near the US border.

Intelligence officials said the recent Hezbollah activities were being coordinated with the help of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.

"Hezbollah would not carry out an attack in the west, or wherever this attack is going to occur, without approval from Tehran," said Baer, the former CIA intelligence officer.

Baer says his Hezbollah contacts told him an attack against the US was unlikely because Iran and Hezbollah did not want to give the Bush administration an excuse to attack.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5203570&page=1

-- June 20, 2008 10:19 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Sara,

Canada is not immune to terrorist plots, despite our warm welcome to Muslim immigrants. Recall that 2 years ago, the R.C.M.P. uncovered a plot to behead our prime minister, Stephen Harper. The wheels of justice turn slowly. Here's an update:

Woodchopper to behead Canadian PM, court hears

Talents suited terror: Crown

Toronto Star - Jun 5, 2008

Terror cell mused over selection of candidate to behead PM, court ...

Wiretaps played at terror trial suggest youth favoured to behead prime minister

Jun 4, 2008

BRAMPTON, Ont. — The last youth charged in Canada's largest anti-terrorism operation since Sept. 11 so impressed alleged ringleaders with his determination, his shoplifting abilities and his wood-chopping skills, he was considered a good candidate to behead the prime minister, police wiretaps played in court Wednesday suggest.
The conversations between a police informant and the alleged ringleaders of a homegrown terrorist plot to attack Canadian targets - the central feature of which was talk of a plan to storm Parliament Hill - were recorded during a trip to northern Ontario in February 2006.
On the tapes, one of the alleged ringleaders discusses plans for a group to go to Ottawa and "cut off some heads." When another alleged conspirator asks what's planned for Parliament Hill, the same man replies: "We go and kill everybody."
"And then what?" asks one.
"We get victory," comes the reply.
After a stop at a Tim Hortons, the group debates the identity of the sitting prime minister, first mentioning Paul Martin - jokingly referring to him as "Paul Loser" - before confirming Stephen Harper as "that other guy." Talk then turns to the best candidate for the job, and one man mentions the 20-year-old youth currently on trial.
"I know he'd cut off their heads," one says.
"Did you see him, how he was cutting the wood, man?" adds another.
The men on the tape were also impressed with the young man's determination and his success in shoplifting supplies.
The youth's case is the first to go to trial after he was charged two years ago along with 17 others in connection with an alleged plot to attack power grids, Canada's spy agency, the CBC, the RCMP and a nuclear power plant.
The wiretaps, along with the anticipated testimony next week of police informant Mubin Shaikh, make up the bulk of the Crown's case against the accused, who cannot be named since he was underage at the time of his arrest.
Hours of conversations were taped by police during a trip which the Crown maintains was intended to scout out properties in the remote community of Opasatika, Ont., some 900 kilometres north of Toronto.
The conversations range from the mundane - discussions about the group's dwindling tuna supply, for instance - to the salacious, with talk of using guns and grenades to target Canada.
The voices on the tape fret about raising enough money - because "we can't do jihad without money" - and getting "wives" for the "brothers," which the Crown alleges is a euphemism for weaponry.
The recordings also include a "chant" listened to by the group, which sings about being "ready to serve you my Islam" and "I offer you from the veins of my blood."
"That chant pumps me up at any given time, man," one of the alleged ringleaders is heard to say.
The tapes also make reference to "round two," which Crown lawyer Marco Mendocino alleged was a plan for a second training camp, and the need for "chocolate" - what Mendocino described as a euphemism for an "explosive compound."
"The law of intelligence says . . . shrapnel flies and it hurts you when it hits you," says a voice on the tape.
One of the alleged conspirators talks of successfully building a "radio frequency remote control detonator." The only problem, the man said, is that you have to stay "30 feet away."
"So you have to get blown up," one of the alleged ringleaders said.
"Yeah," he replied. "Well, it's a step forward."
The group also discusses turning a secluded northern Ontario property into a "covert" training base, complete with tunnels for moving supplies and snowmobiles to practice with "AKs" - presumably a reference to AK-47 automatic rifles.
The group would have to build a tunnel - or even get rid of their nearest neighbours - to keep the location secure, some of the men suggest.
The work ethic of the youth on trial would make him a determined digger, even if he had to tunnel with a fork, several of the men concluded.
"Just like Shawshank Redemption thing," said one of the alleged conspirators, referring to the movie which featured a prison break through a home-made tunnel. "I know he'd do it in a day, man."
Eighteen men and youth were arrested two years ago in a highly-publicized anti-terrorism operation. Defence lawyers have since questioned the strength of the case after charges against seven of the accused men were stayed, whittling the so-called Toronto 18 down to 11.
Before the tapes were played Tuesday, defence lawyer Mitchell Chernovsky, who on Friday called the alleged terror plot a "fantasy," told the court his client is not a "featured speaker" in many of the wiretaps.
The trial continues Thursday.

-- June 20, 2008 11:02 PM


Tsalagi wrote:

Just checking in.....Some dinar sites are up and down this evening. Any good rumors about an RV?

-- June 20, 2008 11:44 PM


Anonymous wrote:

From the LA Times:

Bush never lied to us about Iraq
The administration simply got bad intelligence. Critics are wrong to assert deception.
By James Kirchick
June 16, 2008

Touring Vietnam in 1965, Michigan Gov. George Romney proclaimed American involvement there "morally right and necessary." Two years later, however, Romney -- then seeking the Republican presidential nomination -- not only recanted his support for the war but claimed that he had been hoodwinked.

"When I came back from Vietnam, I had just had the greatest brainwashing that anybody can get," Romney told a Detroit TV reporter who asked the candidate how he reconciled his shifting views.

Romney (father of Mitt) had visited Vietnam with nine other governors, all of whom denied that they had been duped by their government. With this one remark, his presidential hopes were dashed.

The memory of this gaffe reverberates in the contemporary rhetoric of many Democrats, who, when attacking the Bush administration's case for war against Saddam Hussein, employ essentially the same argument. In 2006, John F. Kerry explained the Senate's 77-23 passage of the Iraq war resolution this way: "We were misled. We were given evidence that was not true." On the campaign trail, Hillary Rodham Clinton dodged blame for her pro-war vote by claiming that "the mistakes were made by this president, who misled this country and this Congress."

Nearly every prominent Democrat in the country has repeated some version of this charge, and the notion that the Bush administration deceived the American people has become the accepted narrative of how we went to war.

Yet in spite of all the accusations of White House "manipulation" -- that it pressured intelligence analysts into connecting Hussein and Al Qaeda and concocted evidence about weapons of mass destruction -- administration critics continually demonstrate an inability to distinguish making claims based on flawed intelligence from knowingly propagating falsehoods.

In 2004, the Senate Intelligence Committee unanimously approved a report acknowledging that it "did not find any evidence that administration officials attempted to coerce, influence or pressure analysts to change their judgments." The following year, the bipartisan Robb-Silberman report similarly found "no indication that the intelligence community distorted the evidence regarding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction."

Contrast those conclusions with the Senate Intelligence Committee report issued June 5, the production of which excluded Republican staffers and which only two GOP senators endorsed. In a news release announcing the report, committee Chairman John D. Rockefeller IV got in this familiar shot: "Sadly, the Bush administration led the nation into war under false pretenses."

Yet Rockefeller's highly partisan report does not substantiate its most explosive claims. Rockefeller, for instance, charges that "top administration officials made repeated statements that falsely linked Iraq and Al Qaeda as a single threat and insinuated that Iraq played a role in 9/11." Yet what did his report actually find? That Iraq-Al Qaeda links were "substantiated by intelligence information." The same goes for claims about Hussein's possession of biological and chemical weapons, as well as his alleged operation of a nuclear weapons program.

Four years on from the first Senate Intelligence Committee report, war critics, old and newfangled, still don't get that a lie is an act of deliberate, not unwitting, deception. If Democrats wish to contend they were "misled" into war, they should vent their spleen at the CIA.

In 2003, top Senate Democrats -- not just Rockefeller but also Carl Levin, Clinton, Kerry and others -- sounded just as alarmist. Conveniently, this month's report, titled "Whether Public Statements Regarding Iraq by U.S. Government Officials Were Substantiated by Intelligence Information," includes only statements by the executive branch. Had it scrutinized public statements of Democrats on the Intelligence, Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees -- who have access to the same intelligence information as the president and his chief advisors -- many senators would be unable to distinguish their own words from what they today characterize as warmongering.

This may sound like ancient history, but it matters. After Sept. 11, President Bush did not want to risk allowing Hussein, who had twice invaded neighboring nations, murdered more than 1 million Iraqis and stood in violation of 16 U.N. Security Council resolutions, to remain in possession of what he believed were stocks of chemical and biological warheads and a nuclear weapons program. By glossing over this history, the Democrats' lies-led-to-war narrative provides false comfort in a world of significant dangers.

"I no longer believe that it was necessary for us to get involved in South Vietnam to stop communist aggression in Southeast Asia," Romney elaborated in that infamous 1967 interview. That was an intellectually justifiable view then, just as it is intellectually justifiable for erstwhile Iraq war supporters to say -- given the way it's turned out -- that they don't think the effort has been worth it. But predicating such a reversal on the unsubstantiated allegation that one was lied to is cowardly and dishonest.

A journalist who accompanied Romney on his 1965 foray to Vietnam remarked that if the governor had indeed been brainwashed, it was not because of American propaganda but because he had "brought so light a load to the laundromat." Given the similarity between Romney's explanation and the protestations of Democrats 40 years later, one wonders why the news media aren't saying the same thing today.

James Kirchick is an assistant editor of the New Republic.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-kirchick16-2008jun16,0,4808346.story

-- June 21, 2008 1:34 AM


Sara wrote:

Worth watching.. truly.

Speaking Democrat: A Primer by Rep. McCotter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EcQ03qRE1s

Do please NOTE the part about Iraq.

Sara.

-- June 21, 2008 5:10 PM


Sara wrote:

Thanks, Timbitts... that was a very interesting read.
I didn't know that about the plot to behead the Canadian PM.
Interesting.
Concerning the recent Middle East developments...

Though the experts say that an attack is not imminent.. the military exercise by Israel appeared to:

.. send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.

"They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."

... the Pentagon official said, "They're not taking any options off the table."

===

U.S. says exercise by Israel seemed directed at Iran
By Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt
Published: June 20, 2008

WASHINGTON: Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military's capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said.

Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise.

But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes.

One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.

A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.

"They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."

Several American officials said they did not believe that the Israeli government had concluded that it must attack Iran and did not think that such a strike was imminent.

Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli defense minister who is now a deputy prime minister, warned in a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot that Israel might have no choice but to attack. "If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack," Mofaz said in the interview published on June 6, the day after the unpublicized exercise ended. "Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable."

But Mofaz was criticized by other Israeli politicians as seeking to enhance his own standing as questions mount about whether the embattled Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, can hang on to power.

Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that Mofaz's statement does not represent official policy. But American officials were also told that Israel had prepared plans for striking nuclear targets in Iran and could carry them out if needed.

Iran has shown signs that it is taking the Israeli warnings seriously, by beefing up its air defenses in recent weeks, including increasing air patrols. In one instance, Iran scrambled F-4 jets to double-check an Iraqi civilian flight from Baghdad to Tehran.

"They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard," a Bush administration official said of the Iranians.

Any Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear facilities would confront a number of challenges. Many American experts say they believe that such an attack could delay but not eliminate Iran's nuclear program. Much of the program's infrastructure is buried under earth and concrete and installed in long tunnels or hallways, making precise targeting difficult. There is also concern that not all of the facilities have been detected. To inflict maximum damage, multiple attacks might be necessary, which many analysts say is beyond Israel's ability at this time.

But waiting also entails risks for the Israelis. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed fears that Iran will soon master the technology it needs to produce substantial quantities of highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

Iran is also taking steps to better defend its nuclear facilities. Two sets of advance Russian-made radar systems were recently delivered to Iran. The radar will enhance Iran's ability to detect planes flying at low altitude.

Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February that Iran was close to acquiring Russian-produced SA-20 surface-to-air missiles. American military officials said that the deployment of such systems would hamper Israel's attack planning, putting pressure on Israel to act before the missiles are fielded.

For both the United States and Israel, Iran's nuclear program has been a persistent worry. A National Intelligence Estimate that was issued in December by American intelligence agencies asserted that Iran had suspended work on weapons design in late 2003. The report stated that it was unclear if that work had resumed. It also noted that Iran's work on uranium enrichment and on missiles, two steps that Iran would need to take to field a nuclear weapon, had continued.

In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran's suspected work on nuclear matters was a "matter of serious concern" and that the Iranians owed the agency "substantial explanations."

Over the past three decades, Israel has carried out two unilateral attacks against suspected nuclear sites in the Middle East. In 1981, Israeli jets conducted a raid against Iraq's nuclear plant at Osirak after concluding that it was part of Saddam Hussein's program to develop nuclear weapons. In September, Israeli aircraft bombed a structure in Syria that American officials said housed a nuclear reactor built with the aid of North Korea.

The United States protested the Israeli strike against Iraq in 1981, but its comments in recent months have amounted to an implicit endorsement of the Israeli strike in Syria.

Pentagon officials said that Israel's air forces usually conducted a major early summer training exercise, often flying over the Mediterranean or training ranges in Turkey where they practice bombing runs and aerial refueling. But the exercise this month involved a larger number of aircraft than had been previously observed, and included a lengthy combat rescue mission.

Much of the planning appears to reflect a commitment by Israel's military leaders to ensure that its armed forces are adequately equipped and trained, an imperative driven home by the difficulties the Israeli military encountered in its Lebanon operation against Hezbollah.

"They rehearse it, rehearse it and rehearse it, so if they actually have to do it, they're ready," the Pentagon official said. "They're not taking any options off the table."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/20/america/20iran.php

-- June 22, 2008 1:22 PM


Sara wrote:

Talks on new Iraq oil law to resume this week
By SINAN SALAHEDDIN
Sun, Jun. 22, 2008

Officials from the Iraqi central government and the self-ruled Kurdish region in the north will resume talks this week in Baghdad to try to settle their differences over a proposed new oil law, a Kurdish spokesman said Sunday.

Jamal Abdullah, spokesman of the Kurdistan Regional Government, said that the region's prime minister, Nechervan Barzani, arrived in Baghdad on Saturday with "new proposals that could solve the pending issues on the oil law with the central government."

Abdullah refused to discuss the proposals but said that they are "flexible enough to settle all the pending issues."

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's office confirmed this week's talks. Both sides are expected to discuss an export deal that could add 1 million barrels per day to the market within five years - nearly half of Iraq's current total exports, he added.

http://www.kansascity.com/451/story/674427.html

-- June 22, 2008 1:29 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq adds six more oil firms to those qualified to bid for future deals
SINAN SALAHEDDIN
Sunday, June 22, 2008

BAGHDAD - The Iraqi Oil Ministry added six more oil companies to a list of 35 permitted to bid for future oil and gas deals, the ministry spokesman said Sunday.

Assem Jihad didn't provide the company names but said they are state-owned firms from Turkey, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand, Angola and Algeria.

Last April, Iraq accepted 35 international oil companies out of more than 70 firms that applied to the ministry for permission to make bids.

Baghdad is about to sign Technical Support Agreements, TSAs, with international oil firms to boost its current 2.5 million barrels per day output by 600,000 barrels.

http://www.mworld.com/m/m.w?lp=GetStory&id=311436291

-- June 22, 2008 1:35 PM


Sara wrote:

Hmmm... affects Iraq.. and the Dinar investment.

Hope arises for Iraqi oil production
By Charles Levinson,
USA TODAY
June 20 2008

'Questionable' quantities

Other obstacles remain, including the greatest enemy of all investors: uncertainty.

Until the U.S. presidential election, it is unclear how long large numbers of American troops will remain in Iraq. Negotiations over the legal framework for a long-term U.S. presence also have hit a snag this month as al-Maliki, the prime minister, pushes to expand his government's power.

Oil companies may balk at Iraqi demands to retain some sovereignty over Iraq's resources — and a large share of the profits. "The oil companies need to maintain some control, especially within a country like Iraq that is highly volatile," says Jim Ritterbusch, president of the U.S.-based energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.

Also unclear: just how much oil Iraq has. Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani said last year that new studies suggest Iraq could be the richest oil country in the world; reserves may have as many as 330 billion barrels — compared with the 115 billion barrels officially claimed by the government.

The question goes to the heart of future deals. Lots of easy-to-extract oil would allow the Iraqi government to demand more favorable terms from eager oil companies.

Kelley says the Iraqi claims are wildly off the mark. The former oil engineer for Halliburton says Iraq's oil wealth is probably less than 60 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

There is also the possibility that, by the time Iraq is able to get its oil out of the ground, the opportunity for a bonanza may have passed. Kelley says if crude prices remain at record levels, consumption habits could change and the "oil era" could end within a decade.

"By the time the Iraqis realize their full oil potential, the world will have completely changed," Ritterbusch says. "We could all be driving hybrids instead of SUVs."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-06-19-Iraqoil_N.htm

-- June 22, 2008 1:54 PM


Sara wrote:

Confidence in Congress: Lowest Ever for Any U.S. Institution
Just 12% of Americans express confidence in Congress
by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's annual update on confidence in institutions finds just 12% of Americans expressing confidence in Congress, the lowest of the 16 institutions tested this year, and the worst rating Gallup has measured for any institution in the 35-year history of this question.

Gallup first asked about confidence in institutions in 1973, repeating the question biannually through 1983, and obtaining annual updates since then. This year's update comes from a June 9-12 Gallup Poll.

In the latest update, Congress ranks just below HMOs, for whom 13% of Americans express "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence. Big business, the criminal justice system, organized labor, newspapers, television news, and the presidency all receive relatively low confidence ratings.

In contrast, Americans express the most confidence in the military, as they have each year since 1988 (with the exception of 1997, when small business edged it out). Small business ranks second in the current poll, just ahead of the police. These are the only three institutions that for whom a majority of Americans express a high degree of confidence.

From 1973 through 1985, organized religion was the top rated institution. Today, just 48% of Americans are confident in organized religion, one of its lowest ratings ever. The lowest score for religion to date was 45% in 2002 at the height of the Catholic Church's priest sex abuse scandal.

Even though the Supreme Court (32% "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence) and presidency (26%) are rated more positively than Congress, all institutions are at or near their lowest ratings to date. The rating for the presidency is just one percentage point above its worst rating of 25% from 2007, while the Supreme Court's rating is its worst.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108142/Confidence-Congress-Lowest-Ever-Any-US-Institution.aspx

-- June 22, 2008 2:02 PM


Sara wrote:

You sense from this poll I just posted that the American people just DONT WANT the world to be the way it is. They want someone to CHANGE it.. but they are unrealistic in believing in the ability of politicians or anyone else on earth to make positive megapolitical change in this time of extreme difficulty.

America has gotten into this over years.. and there is no magic solution.. nor magician about to pop up and make it all better.

Did you see this? (It is relevant)

Speaking Democrat: A Primer by Rep. McCotter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EcQ03qRE1s

==

We have done well so far (no attacks on US soil, Iraq war going well, yet with brave fighting men and women giving their lives in the conflict, etc.) but there is no easy solution to these very complex and difficult questions. We can't go back to the way we were before. Those days are gone. The best we can do is move forward living within the new realities.. and Obama's negotiating with and appeasing the terrorists is NOT a change in strategy America needs to embrace. LOSING the Iraq war (by pulling out) is not a strategy America nees to embrace. Growing up and working with the difficult situations and grave realities facing America.. is the only way.

Will America listen to reality.. and make the somewhat hard but REAL choice, or will they follow the pied piper of Obama and the magical tune he is playing which will remove them from home (and all that means) forever - and take them all down a garden path - never to be seen, as those children who followed the pied piper were? What America faces is grave and serious.. she can't afford to be taken down a garden path now. The stakes are too high.

Sara.

-- June 22, 2008 2:26 PM


Sara wrote:

Obama tries to bundle his inexperience, his poor foreign policy (like negotiating with terrorists) and his total lack of qualifications for the office of President - and parcel them into a charge that any who speak about these legitimate concerns is a RACIST. To which we say.. show us proof of racism, Mr. B.

===

Who’s playing the race card?
June 21, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama told supporters in Jacksonville that Republicans would launch racist attacks against him in the upcoming election. Without noting a single supporting piece of evidence, Obama cast any opposition to him as bigotry, and in doing so, recalled just a touch of Joe McCarthy’s tactics.
QUOTE:

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said on Friday he expects Republicans to highlight the fact that he is black as part of an effort to make voters afraid of him.

“It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy,” Obama told a fundraiser in Jacksonville, Florida. “We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid.

“They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?”

==end quote==

The ironic part of this argument is that it ignores the tactics his fellow Democrats used in the primary, while also overlooking John McCain’s efforts to distance himself from the same tactics. It was, after all, staffers on the Hillary Clinton campaign that sent the photo of Obama in African garb to the Drudge Report. It was Bill Clinton who suggested that Obama’s victory in South Carolina was no more significant than Jesse Jackson’s in 1988. It was Hillary who explicitly went after the white, working-class vote in the later primaries that bruised Obama so badly.

John McCain, meanwhile, was a lot more outspoken in criticizing his own supporters for relying on crypto-ethnic references. He immediately and publicly disowned, without any prompting, Bill Cunningham in Ohio after the radio host enphasized Obama’s middle name (Hussein) in his introductory remarks. McCain also fired one staffer for e-mailing a Jeremiah Wright video after explicitly saying that his campaign would have no comment on Wright or Trinity United. Meanwhile, Hillary could only offer a tepid “as far as I know” repudiation of the rumor that Obama is/was a Muslim.

Just as with his untrue statements on Republican financing and 527s, Obama seems content to issue lies and smears in order to inflame the electorate. There is more than a little hint of McCarthyism in this tactic. Joe McCarthy waved pieces of paper around and claimed to have lists of Communists in government that he never substantiated. Obama likes to accuse Republicans of racism without any proof, either, while apparently discounting the real race-card playing in his own party.

If he has proof that the Republican Party and/or John McCain plan racist attacks on him, let him show it. If he doesn’t, then Obama is guilty of his own racial pandering and should apologize. (in part via TMV)

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/21/whos-playing-the-race-card/

Even if Obama could show some person within the Republican party who had shown some racism.. it does NOT change the rightness of the scrutiny of his total lack of credentials for the office of President, his complete lack of experience and his very questionable foreign policy at a time when the country is at WAR.

Is it the will of the people of America to endure the playing of the race card for years to come.. so that every opposition to any policy Obama may speak would be seen as opposition based on race and not on thoughtful dialog about the ISSUES?

God have mercy.

Sara.

-- June 22, 2008 2:44 PM


Sara wrote:

Board;

I have on this site spoken about what I believe is a vision of a future America presently does face.
It is not a pleasant future, and like the majority of Americans, I want that future to change.
But I do not speak what I do about this from fear, but from a heart of love for America and from faith.. :

2Ti 1:7 For God has not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind.

When I speak, it is to warn that the current direction is leading toward an imperilled future.
Obama is part of a terribly imperilled future, which I do not wish to see happen to America.
His inexperience would entrap America and would destroy the Republic as it now stands -
it is that dire a mistake to put such an inexperienced babe in the Whitehouse.
He is truly a babe... a child who wishes to rule over the people.

Isa 3:12 As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths.
Isa 3:4 And I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.
Isa 3:5 And the people shall be oppressed, every one by another, and every one by his neighbour: the child shall behave himself proudly against the ancient, and the base against the honourable.

I do not wish this to be the future for America.
I do not speak these admonitions from fear, but from faith and from love - because I care for America's people.
Those who say it is "fear tactics" to face reality (terrorism, etc) are moving into denying reality and living in magical thinking.. and following the pied piper of Hamelin.. in a inexperienced babe of a man who leads them all away, never to be seen again.
I wish better than that for the future of America... and I believe in speaking so, that I speak the Good Will of God toward a country He loves.
Those such as I.. also serve who only stand and wait.. and watch.

Toby Keith - American Soldier
http://youtube.com/watch?v=hGwcyxKV97M

Sara.

-- June 22, 2008 3:20 PM


Sara wrote:

So, let us set aside Obama's drawing attention to his being half-black and simply forget Obama's color.. and let's look at the issue of his foreign policy. Among the stands he takes - other than destroying our investment in the Dinar by pulling out of Iraq and losing the Iraq war - we have the issue of his saying he will meet without preconditions, with Iran's Ahmadinejad. What does EUROPE think of this?
Quote:

Europe likes to remind people that the preconditions of cessation are European demands, not American, although the US has supported it wholeheartedly. Obama’s insistence on dropping this precondition in order to score PR points with MoveOn and Ahmadinejad looks a lot less like multilateralism and much more like cowboy diplomacy than anything Bush has done on Iran thus far. If Obama is to Europe’s left on Iran, what does that say about his foreign policy?

Also, it may end up with his having to APPEASE the Iranians.. aka The Chamberlain Effect (below).
Think Iran will just play nice once they get appeasement?
Historical precedent of how they act when you appease them? - ask Europe..

The EU has been on the front line of this issue for several years, and they have first-hand experience with Iranian lies and double-dealing. They understand that it will take a strong, united, and dominant front to force the Iranians into retreat on uranium enrichment.

Guess Obama will need another learning curve on this one, too.. ??
His inexperience is showing.. again.

===

Europe fears Obama on Iran
June 22, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

One might think that Europe would welcome Barack Obama with open arms, but according to Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post, Obama has them worried. Key European allies fear a rupture between the US and the Continent if Obama attempts to waive the precondition of enrichment cessation in dealing with Iran. While they would like to see a heavier emphasis on team play rather than American hegemony, Obama’s insistence on cozying up to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is far out of step with the rest of the West:
QUOTE:

European officials are increasingly concerned that Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign pledge to begin direct talks with Iran on its nuclear program without preconditions could potentially rupture U.S. relations with key European allies early in a potential Obama administration.

The U.N. Security Council has passed four resolutions demanding that Iran stop enriching uranium, each time highlighting the offer of financial and diplomatic incentives from a European-led coalition if Tehran suspends enrichment, a route to producing fuel for nuclear weapons. But Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has said he would make such suspension a topic for discussion with Iran, rather than a precondition for any negotiations to take place.

European officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said they are wary of giving up a demand that has been so enshrined in U.N. resolutions, particularly without any corresponding concessions by Iran. Although European officials are eager to welcome a U.S. president promising renewed diplomacy and multilateralism after years of tensions with the Bush administration, they feel strongly about continuing on the current path.

===end quote==

Obama’s response? Dr. Susan Rice told the Post that Europe has failed, and a new approach was needed. That ought to kick-start a new era in American diplomacy, eh?

While Europe may not care for the Bush administration’s tendency towards saber-rattling, they do not prescribe to the nonsense that dropping the precondition for ending enrichment would somehow make the Iranians more likely to stop. The EU has been on the front line of this issue for several years, and they have first-hand experience with Iranian lies and double-dealing. They understand that it will take a strong, united, and dominant front to force the Iranians into retreat on uranium enrichment.

At the moment, Europe has its hands full in pushing Russia and China into recognizing this, even with the US on board. An Obama presidency would put the US in a position even softer than that of Russia and China and give the Iranians a breath of fresh air. Obama’s team says such talks would provide the US with more leverage against Iran, but never quite explain how that would work. Supposedly, failed talks at the presidential level would prompt tougher sanctions from Russia and China, but why would they agree to that when their own failed talks with their own client did not? Why would they act tougher when the West acts weaker?

What Europe fears is the Chamberlain effect. When a leader of a democracy gets elected on a peace platform and then meets with the head of hostile states, a tremendous pressure for success grows until the democratic leader starts bargaining to show some kind of victory. After all, if Obama walked away from Ahmadinejad empty handed, he’d look like a buffoon. Ahmadinejad would have little pressure to produce anything from such a meeting, except to remain obstinate.

Europe likes to remind people that the preconditions of cessation are European demands, not American, although the US has supported it wholeheartedly. Obama’s insistence on dropping this precondition in order to score PR points with MoveOn and Ahmadinejad looks a lot less like multilateralism and much more like cowboy diplomacy than anything Bush has done on Iran thus far. If Obama is to Europe’s left on Iran, what does that say about his foreign policy?

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/22/europe-fears-obama-on-iran/

-- June 22, 2008 4:58 PM


Sara wrote:

NINE out of 10 White Americans in this poll said they would be comfortable with a black president - so since Obama is HALF-black, that should be good news?? So where is all this "racial prejudice" Obama keeps speaking about? The poll bears out that 3 in 10 BLACKS are racially biased, as are 3 in 10 whites. Sounds like the white Americans don't have any worse a problem than the black Americans do..

===

3 in 10 Americans - White and BLACK - Admit to Race Bias
By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers
June 22, 2008

As Sen. Barack Obama opens his campaign as the first African American on a major party presidential ticket, nearly three in 10 Americans acknowledge feelings of racial prejudice, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, 51 percent call the current state of race relations "excellent" or "good," about the same as said so five years ago.

More than six in 10 African Americans now rate race relations as "not so good" or "poor," while 53 percent of whites hold more positive views. Opinions are also divided along racial lines, though less so, on whether blacks face discrimination. There is more similarity on feelings of personal racial prejudice: Thirty percent of whites and 34 percent of blacks admit such sentiments.

At the same time, there is an overwhelming public openness to the idea of electing an African American to the presidency. In a Post-ABC News poll last month, nearly nine in 10 whites said they would be comfortable with a black president. While fewer whites, about two-thirds, said they would be "entirely comfortable" with it.

Even so, just over half of whites in the new poll called Obama a "risky" choice for the White House, while two-thirds said McCain is a "safe" pick. Only forty-three percent of whites said Obama has sufficient experience to serve effectively as president, and about two in 10 worry he would overrepresent the interests of African Americans.

Obama leads in the Post-ABC poll by six percentage points among all adults, but among those who are most likely to vote, the contest is a tossup, with McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

To win in November, Obama most likely will have to close what is now a 12-point deficit among whites. (Whites made up 77 percent of all voters in 2004; blacks were 11 percent, according to network exit polls.)

The poll was conducted by telephone June 12 through June 15 among a national random sample of 1,125 adults. The results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/21/AR2008062101825.html?hpid=topnews

Note that among the voting public McCain is one point ahead in who would be in the Whitehouse come November.. and that (among whites) 43% said it wasn't Obama's COLOR which was a problem.. but his INEXPERIENCE.

Sara.

-- June 22, 2008 5:45 PM


Sara wrote:

The MSM has fawned over Ahmadinejad as wonderful..
Do they even see the actions of his government toward the Freedom of the press... ??
Still.. from them.. he gets a free pass.

News Agency: Iran Shuts Down Newspaper Critical of Ahmadinejad
Sunday, June 22, 2008

TEHRAN, Iran — Authorities have shut down a Tehran newspaper, the official IRNA news agency reported Sunday, after the paper published a story critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's stance on Israel.

The announcement comes after the paper published a story Saturday that said Ahmadinejad's comments on Israel "seems to have led to a different result — more pressure on Iran and more support to Israel."

The Press Supervisory Board, which is controlled by hard-liners, banned Tehran Today on Saturday after the paper's editor was summoned to court for publishing material deemed as insulting Ahmadinejad, IRNA said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,369945,00.html

-- June 22, 2008 7:57 PM


NEIL wrote:

Sara:

You are right on target with your analogy of how the Presidental race will proceed.
The spin artists for the democrats will turn everything into a racial issue and eventually make John McCain look like a full-blooded racist.

I really believe that Barrack will win the presidency and turn the white house into a black house. The city hall in Birmingham, AL is almost totally black and if you see a white face, it old and wrinkled and has tenure.

We are in for some rough times in this country and putting a black muslin racist in the white house is not the answer but if we do then the chances of another black man becoming president will be next to impossible. We are going to have to go through this era in order to start building again.

Kruschev said he would destroy the west in 40 years without firing a shot. He did not suceed in 40 years but the dye is cast for our demise economically. You cannot continue to borrow money indefinitely. You cannot continue to subsidize immorality by paying a woman for each child born illegimately by saying it was not the child's fault. The cost of gasoline is driving a large portion of the population into bankruptsy.

We have got to get back to the philosophy that this Country is a land of opportunity and that you can have whatever you earn and that you have got to earn your way out of poverty. In any society there are going to be poor people, and when these poor people see that the only way to advance is to work their ass off, then you will see the American innovative spirit be rejuvinated, but maybe we are too far down the socialistic path for this to happen.

I am feeling despondent, so please someone post something positive about the future of this country.

-- June 23, 2008 12:22 AM


Marlecaste wrote:

Here is something positive - It is inevitable that we will become wealthy from our investment in the IQD. then we can change the world in what ever way we see fit and are able. God works in mysterious ways. Until then I will just wait for the Lotus to unfurl.

-- June 23, 2008 1:30 AM


Sara wrote:

Neil;

Do not be despondent Neil. You know that God is not finished with America yet, and that He has a good plan for her future. What you have said, in large measure, is true. But there is a greater reality over it all and that is what brings us real hope for the future. Looking UP is the place to find hope.

Jer 29:11 For I know the thoughts that I think toward you, says the LORD, thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end.

God is thinking good thoughts toward America.. which will give to America a future and a hope.. thoughts which bring to expected and good ends. :)

You said I am right about how things are proceeding concerning Barack playing the race card in his favor through the Presidential contest. But I think people will be turned off by it. Whites are NOT prejudiced against Mr. Obama because he is black.. as per the article I posted.. NINETY percent would vote for a black president (!!). And because of that, I believe that the white community will tire of being told they are prejudiced and racist when they are NOT. They will become insulted and think - "Well, then, I don't need to vote for someone like you who insults me and calls me a racist, do I?" He is hardly doing himself a favor by calling all whites (which he is trying to win over??) racists bigots. The whites know they are not, and when it gets shovelled in their faces often enough, they will get the sense that this stuff stinks like manure.

I don't think he has a winning strategy here. How much guilt and manipulation does the public want to take? For how long? For years? I just don't think so. I don't think the white community will enjoy being dished out guilt and manipulation day in and day out for months. So I disagree with you that Obama will win the Whitehouse because he plays the race card. I think it will help vote him OUT of it. People will be sick of this by November and vote to never hear from him again.. and to silence his constant prattle that just because you are white, you are prejudiced and racist against him. They will see through the hoax and begin to tire of seeing the empty shells and begin to look more earnestly for the "pea" under the shell in the game they are playing.. in other words, they will start asking.."But what about the REAL issues?"

Also, did you notice I posted:

Obama leads in the Post-ABC poll by six percentage points among all adults, but among those who are most likely to vote, the contest is a tossup, with McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/21/AR2008062101825.html?hpid=topnews

So I don't see why you are tossing the race to Obama when it is only hype saying Obama will get in and it is not based on who will actually vote. NOTE.. it says the contest for President of the United States is, at this point in time, a TOSSUP.. with McCain being at 48% and Obama at 47%. Not touted in the MSM press, is it? Also, I read another poll which shows Obama leading which was highly skewed by taking a much larger percentage of Democrats into the poll. That skews the poll as it biases the poll toward the Democrat position, of course. In that case, it said Obama had a 15% lead over McCain.. but that was because they surveyed a ton more Democrats than Republicans. That won't be the case come voting day. But you have to read the fine print to find these things out.. the MSM are out to woo the people into believing in Obama and are "in the tank" for him. But that does not mean they will win it for him. No matter the misguided attempts they make.. they cannot make people believe different if God does not will them to. The people will simply see through it.

You have to realize that the MSM actually IS the Democrats and skew their coverage accordingly. They are not unbiased in their news reporting and they distort the facts when it suits them. When Obama loses, they will pine about it as they did when President Bush won... both times. There is no reason to worry about having to "go through" a time with a racist black man as President. As you pointed out, that would ruin the chances of a good black man getting in for President. The American public would likely say, "Never again." - which does a great disservice to the black community. Just on that alone, he should not be voted for by blacks. He is not the right man for the job. His skin color is not a qualification for the oval office. I wish Colin Powell had run for office.. he was great and I think he would have made a good black President. This leftist baby killer, Obama, (who supports the heinous crime of partial birth abortion) could never win my vote. I am for good men, not evil. Period. Regardless of color, race, or belief. Obama does not pass that test.

I agree with you that it is not right to continue to have people live off the government dole (which Obama wishes to increase), and your statement, "You cannot continue to borrow money indefinitely" is true also. You also cannot tax people indefinitely to get out of rough times as Obama wants to do. Taking money OUT of pockets means less money will be spent to keep the economy afloat. And while it is true that the price at the pump is affecting everyone, and bankrupcies could happen.. it has not really come to that yet. Fiscal responsibility is McCain's strong suit, as he will not raise taxes and spend them, as Obama would. So how things go with the election will have an outcome in whether people can afford or not afford things - including gas. The choice is clearly for the good of the economy at a tough time (McCain) or a choice for more taxing and spending which is bad for the economy and will worsen the tough times (Obama). Also, Obama would tax the oil companies.. if you think they won't pass on that cost to the consumer, you are dreaming. If people want "change" - which includes becoming poorer and many bankrupcies due to higher prices, they will vote for Obama.. but I still think the American public is not quite as stupid as the Democrats make them out to be. I don't think the people of America want higher taxes and will vote accordingly, so that their economic woes are lessened, not added to. So that aspect of the economic worries is not warranted.

I agree that people should be rewarded for hard work, and not given money from those who are industrious and working instead. Those values are heartland US values and I think that most Americans believe them. The leftists are good at showing us the EXCEPTIONS who are truly deserving poor, and then asking us to let the government tax us to help the poor.. rather than letting churches and charities help the poor through our charitable contributions. So many good charities have been put out of business by the government taking over their charitable functions. And when the government runs it... there are abuses and many who are able to work can be lazy and get benefits. That does not tend to happen when it is a church or charity and they have to be careful with the resources and feel themselves accountable to God for their stewardship.

In general, the more government, the less charitable organizations, and the less true supervision of where charitable contributions go to. There is no case in the Bible for the government being into charitable works, or helping the poor with tax dollars. That is work for charities and churches. Abuses by those charities and churches can be investigated and prosecuted if found wanting. But if people didn't think "I am paying for the poor with my taxes, so I don't need to give." - then they would open their wallets and be careful to whom they gave their charity (responsible organizations and churches) and it would clean up the problems. Only the UNaccountable government dole allows these welfare bums to live off public tax money. The way to stop the abuses.. is less government, more private charities. This is the opposite of socialist thinking.. and Obama's government-in-control-of-everything mentality. But it is truly the only Biblical way and the only thing which works. Again, the choice is who Americans choose to be giving out the charity and that is chosen by who is elected into the government Those in positions of authority determine how it works out in people's lives. If the ones elected are socialists, the result is socialist policies. America needs to work for the good of the poor.. but not through government agency bureaucracies - through private charities regulated by non-intrusive laws which will let the charities get on with the work and only deal with the few charities who are abusive. It is never too late to do the right thing.. and it should start now, by looking at each individual who is to be elected in this next election. If the people of America CARE, their representatives will reflect that. Real change must come from the ground up. It is never too late to start..

Lastly, I agree with Marlecaste who said that we should be happy we will have Dinar wealth given to us.. because then we can do a lot of good with it as the Lord directs. The RV will be good for us, for Iraq and for America. I can hardly wait! :)

Sara.

-- June 23, 2008 3:08 AM


Carole wrote:

Neil,

My heart goes out to you, because the future looks very dim. That is why it is important to have something far greater to look forward to than the things of this world. That would be to live forever in the arns of your Creator.

A life span of 60-80 yrs, is but a blink compare to eternity. In our imperfect human condition, we are not capable of securing a place in God's perfect heaven. That is why HE SENT His son to pay our sin debt and seek forgiveness for all who will accept His free gift.

Your state o despondency, will instantaneously be replaced with hope and joy once you accept this wonderful ree gift and secure your place ( as promised by Jesus in scripture) in heaven ffor eternity.

May God bless you and open your heart.

Carole

-- June 23, 2008 3:18 AM


willie wrote:

WAY TO GO CAROLE!!!!!! I Believe you!

-- June 23, 2008 3:25 AM


Anonymous wrote:

All:

Concerning the future of our great nation being despondent is not the answer. Like it or not Obama is the democratic nominee. Though John McCain is not my first choice he is the best candidate. As a conservative, it is imperative I participate in the process. Being despondent or voting for Mr. Barr instead of John McCain is a vote for Obama.

I believe that Barack Obama is no more than a token of the left. From the generation that gave us the civil rights movement Obama is the application of that time period. The left is exploiting the fact that he is black. For the liberal, Obama's experience is not a factor. He is qualified to be the democratic nominee because he is black.

Should he loose in November to John McCain his political carreer will diminish as did John Kerry's. I liken Obama to the the LPGA golfer Sorenstam. Sorenstam wanted to play with the guys. Though everyone knew she could not hit the ball as far as Woods or Mickelson she still wanted to play. The PGA allowed her to play; she did not win. As a result, her image and bankability diminished.

Jerry Fallwell coined the phrase "moral majority" in the 1980's as a moniker for the religious conservatives in America. Though John McCain is not my first choice as a candidate that moral majority must turn out to vote for him.

Concerning the ABC poll showing Obama with a 6 point lead; does it not seem strange with the spin from the MSM for Obama his lead is not more than 6 points. According to the MSM, Obama has raised in campaign dollars double that of McCain. Should Obama not have a larger lead over McCain. In fact, that 6 point lead is within the margin of error. All early indications are that this election cycle will be tight.

Cheer up my friends, this election cycle has just begun. Do not be despondent or discouraged.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 9:04 AM


Carole wrote:

Rob,

I think that you have truly appealed to reality and my common sense. I am extremely disturbed with the Rep. Party right now and would like to stick it to them by voting for Barr.....but the stakes are too high!

I will write my check to the Party and give it all I got to get a repub in office!.BUT we better make dam sure that we change the picture in Congress, and pull ourselves out of the mess Washington has put this country in. How can we get people to realize that? The key to this entire sick situation is that the "right" turn out was so poor in the last congressional election!
If you will recall, some big wig on the religious right was involved in some big sex scandal and I remember thinking that it just knocked the wind out of the sails of the religious right and they put their tails between their legs and stayed home. That is probably the greatest significance contributing to where we are now.

You r right! The left has turned this into a racist election, soooooooooo non-blacks better see this and do something about it at the polls.

I have said it before, and I'LL say it again, this country IS ready or a black or female president,,,,,,,just not this Barack or Hilary!

I personally think that whomever McCain picks as VP will bring back the conservative to his side. I doubt that Mc Cain will make it through his 4 years( I see him as a fraile,sick man), and for sure he will not run again. So if he chooses a candidate with outstanding
moral values meaning pro-life, traditional marriage support as well as welfare reform and tough immigration policies, with strong anti-environmentalist record....we will have a winner. Otherwise we will just GIVE the presidency to an undeserving Mc Cain .......but to do otherwise would be a bad turning point for this country, that could be our demise!

Thanks for your insights and let's get to work!

Carole

-- June 23, 2008 10:29 AM


Carole wrote:

Hi Willie,
Haven't seen you here in awhile..... glad to see you still have your hope and joy!!
God Strengthen and Bless You,

carole

-- June 23, 2008 10:32 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq IED deaths down 90 percent in a year
By Tom Vanden Brook - USA Today
Jun 23, 2008

WASHINGTON — Roadside bomb attacks and fatalities in Iraq are down by almost 90 percent over the last year, according to Pentagon records and interviews with key military leaders.

Military leaders cite several factors for the drop in attacks and deaths. They include:

* New vehicles. Almost 7,000 heavily armored Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles have been rushed to Iraq in the last year. “They’ve taken hits — many, many hits that would have killed soldiers and Marines in up-armored Humvees,” Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a recent interview.

* Iraqi assistance. Ad hoc local security forces, known as the Sons of Iraq, have provided on-the-ground intelligence to U.S. forces looking for IEDs, said Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, who commanded a division in Baghdad from February 2007 until May. He said about 60 percent had been insurgents.

* Improved surveillance. Lynch said his troops used new security cameras that could see bomb builders up to five miles away. “If they’re out there planting an IED, we can go whack them before they finish,” he said.

Also, Lynch said, the 14-ton MRAPs have forced insurgents to build bigger bombs to knock out the vehicles. Those bombs take more time to build and hide, which gives U.S. forces a better chance to catching the insurgents in the act and then attacking them.

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/2008/06/gns_ied_iraq_062308/

Notice in point two that 60 percent of those providing intelligence were formerly insurgents. This shows that MOST of the insurgency is not ideologically driven but driven by economic necessity. The need for support for the economy (including and particularly the RV of the Dinar) is necessary for the people not to turn to such desperate measures to get by. By not RVing, many, like this 60 percent of the people, fall to terrorism and are kept in the recruitment loop which otherwise would not be in that loop. Iran, therefore, wishes no RV so that they can continue to recruit and train people using their Quds forces and training camps within Iraq. The economic leg of the strategy is imperative to be implemented to win the war in Iraq.

Sara.

-- June 23, 2008 1:08 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq PM announces al-Qaeda crackdown
23rd June 2008

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Maliki says troops will soon launch a counter-insurgency campaign in Diyala province, a bastion of al-Qaeda north of Baghdad.

Troops have already carried out similar offensives against Sunni insurgents in the main northern city of Mosul and against Shi'ite militia in the main southern city of Basra. Maliki's announcement came as he visited Maysan province where a crackdown on militias has been under way since Thursday.

"We are proud to say that the Iraqi government, in spite of all the challenges that it has faced has been able to chase and confront Al-Qaeda, outlaws and gangsters," Maliki told tribal chiefs in the southern province.

"This success has been achieved from Basra to Mosul and next will be Diyala."

"We will finish what we started in Mosul," Maliki said, referring to the northern city which US commanders labelled Al-Qaeda's last urban bastion before Iraqi troops launched a crackdown on the jihadists on May 14.

"In front of us we have a major goal - to return to their homes the people who have been forcibly displaced ... so that Sunni and Shi'ite may again live together," he added.

http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=492745

-- June 23, 2008 1:13 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

MP urges Parliament to speed up enacting oil, gas law

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Monday , 23 /06 /2008 Time 4:48:18

Baghdad, Jun 23, (VOI) – The chairman of the parliamentary oil and gas committee on Monday called on the Parliament to speed up the enactment of the controversial oil and gas law.

"We hope that the law will soon be passed…," Abd al-Hadi al-Hassani, who is also a member of the Islamic Daawa Party, told Aswat al-Iraq - Voices of Iraq - (VOI), adding that it will help the country increase its oil and gas investment revenues.
According to the parliamentarian, "Iraq loses nearly $18 billion a year as a result of wasted natural gas, which is burnt without proper use."
The prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan region, Negervan Barazani, began on Saturday a visit to the Iraqi capital Baghdad to discuss several issues, including oil contracts, the oil and gas law, and the allocations for the Peshmerga forces, with officials from the central government.
(www.aswataliraq.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.


-- June 23, 2008 1:37 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Oil revenues higher in May

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Monday , 23 /06 /2008 Time 4:48:18

Baghdad, Jun 23, (VOI) – Iraq's oil proceeds rose by over 21 percent in May 2008, compared to April 2008, an official spokesman for the Iraqi Ministry of Oil said on Monday, citing the international increase in oil prices as the main reasonc behind the hike.

"In May, Iraq's oil revenues were 7.177 billion U.S. dollars, compared to 5.922 billion in April…," Aasem Jihad told Aswat al-Iraq-Voices of Iraq-(VOI).

A total of 48.6 million barrels were exported through the southern ports of Basra, and 13.800 million barrels through the Turkish Cehyan Port to world markets, the spokesman explained.
Nearly 22 international companies from Europe, Asia and the United States bought the crude, which was sold for $115.016 a barrel in May, compared to $103.7 in April, the spokesman added.

(www.aswataliraq.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 1:41 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:


Iraq to award oil contracts to foreign firms: ministry

Iraq will award contracts to 41 foreign oil firms in a bid to ramp up production that gives multinationals a potentially lucrative foothold in the nation's huge oil fields, an official said on Sunday.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 1:48 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraqi PM pledges to enforce law after Amara raid

By Waleed Ibrahim and Tim Cocks

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pledged to maintain law and order throughout Iraq on Monday, days after a security crackdown in Amara wrested control of the southern city from the hands of Shi'ite militias.

Iraqi forces have swept through Amara and the surrounding province of Maysan, seizing heavy weapons and arresting wanted men in an operation aiming to stamp government authority on an area where Shi'ite gunmen had exerted considerable influence.

The Amara operation was the latest Maliki has ordered in the past four months to impose order on areas once under the control of Shi'ite gunmen or Sunni Arab al Qaeda insurgents.

Speaking on a visit to Amara, Maliki said Diyala province north of Baghdad would be next. A female suicide bomber killed 15 people in the Diyala capital Baquba on Sunday in an attack that bore the hallmarks of al Qaeda.

"We will not stop using force against those who revolt against the will of the nation," Maliki told local tribal leaders in a speech broadcast live on state television.

"Military forces will not withdraw from (Amara) until we make sure the criminals and killers can never come back again."

Supporters of anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr accuse the government of targeting their movement in the Amara operation, which was launched last Thursday.

Security forces have met no resistance from Sadr's Mehdi Army militia, which has been under orders from the cleric to cooperate. Many residents have said they feel safer since the offensive involving thousands of Iraqi soldiers got under way.


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#1 FX Broker - Shares Mag 2007 But followers of Sadr say they were singled out. Amara's mayor Rafea Abdul-Jabbar, a Sadr supporter, was detained, along with other Sadrist officials.

Maliki denied going after Sadr's supporters just because of their political affiliation.

"We're not taking a negative stance against any political party or person. Everyone has the right to say ... what he wants, but he cannot infringe the freedom of others," he said.

"EVERY INCH"

Maliki said all the various security operations needed to be seen as a unified effort to restore order to Iraq.

"Security in Iraq is one entity, whether it's in Amara, Mosul or Baghdad. The government is responsible for imposing security on every inch of Iraqi territory," he said.

The peaceful execution of the raid against Shi'ite militias in Amara contrasts with earlier operations in Baghdad and the southern city of Basra, which met fierce resistance from Sadr's Mehdi Army in weeks of fighting until truces restored calm.

In the northern city of Mosul, Iraqi forces intensified an offensive last month against Sunni Arab al Qaeda militants, who regrouped there last year after being pushed out of former strongholds in Baghdad and Iraq's western Anbar province.

Iraqi officials say that crackdown has so far been a success, with the group's network in Mosul largely dismantled.

U.S. forces have carried out a series of offensives this year in Diyala, a multi-ethnic province once seen as an al Qaeda haven. Maliki did not elaborate on what he had planned.

"Our forces will be in Diyala ... to complete the operation of repelling remnants of al-Qaeda from its pockets," he said.

Maliki has been criticized in the past for lacking resolve to stabilize Iraq -- especially in cracking down on fellow Shi'ites. But he has gained a measure of respect at home and abroad for recent offensives.

In separate violence, one U.S. soldier was killed and five were wounded by small arms fire southeast of Baghdad on Monday, according to initial reports from the U.S. military.

Iraqi security officials, including an Iraqi soldier on the scene, said a local official in the town of Madaen had turned his gun on U.S. soldiers who had gone to visit him.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.


-- June 23, 2008 2:12 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Political pressure may delay US-Iraq security deal
Experts doubt deal can be struck by July due to rising resistance in Iraq to any loss of sovereignty.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington, 22 June 2008 (Middle East Online)
Print article Send to friend
It may take a while for Washington and Baghdad to reach a security deal on the future US military presence amid rising political resistance in Iraq to any loss of sovereignty, experts say.

Given the strains in the Iraqi political scene, President George W. Bush Thursday told Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki the United States was committed to a deal fully respecting Iraqi sovereignty, according to Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman.

Thrashed out in tough closed-door dealing over the past several weeks, the deal is edging forward with some compromises.

But there are lingering disagreements on key issues of the text, which would set up a legal framework for US military presence in Iraq after the UN mandate expires later this year.

According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Baghdad and Washington set a deadline of late July to get a deal done.

But they remain at odds on the issue of US troops' immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts, a traditional pillar of a Status of Forces Agreement.

The parties also differ on the number of bases US soldiers would have in Iraq long-term - Washington wants about 50 - and on the freedom to conduct operations and to arrest and detain Iraqis.

"The current situation poses a dilemma for the Iraqi government. It wants to restore its full sovereignty as soon as possible, while maintaining a coalition presence until Iraqi forces are able to assume the country's security responsibilities," said Nazar Janabi, a fellow at The Washington Institute and a specialist on Iraqi and Middle Eastern security issues.

"They're not anxious to put us out, what they're anxious to do is to reassert their own sovereignty partly for domestic reasons, so they need to win some of these arguments and show their population that they're not kowtowing to the United States," added Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst at the Brookings Institute.

Maliki is under rising pressure from Shiite forces to limit the US reach. Iran in turn has thrown itself into the debate, opposing any security agreement between Washington and Baghdad.

According to Steve Simon of the Council on Foreign Relations, "because of their experience with the British, who at one time occupied Iraq ... there's a tremendous sensitivity among Iraqis about being under foreign domination."

In an effort to get a deal, the United States has made concessions.

According to Zebari, they have dropped their demand for immunity for US subcontractors in Iraq, a highly sensitive issue after the killings of 17 civilians in September 2007 in a shootout in Baghdad by agents of US private security contractor Blackwater.

Iraq in turn has ceased demanding that the United States commit to protect Iraq from domestic and foreign threats.

Experts have their doubts about whether a deal can be struck by July.

"Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer," said Janabi.

If that happens, once the UN mandate expires, either it could be extended, or a temporary deal could be reached, noted O'Hanlon.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Chahristani, in an interview with The Guardian, suggested that might be the course, and that Iraq would like a short-term deal: "only short, for one or two years."

Stressed O'Hanlon: "The option we really don't have is getting all the US forces out by the end of December; we couldn't do it even if we wanted to."
(www.iraqupdates.com)


Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 2:21 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Prime Minister Barzani in Baghdad to discuss hydro-carbons law and other key issues

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Erbil, 22 June 2008 (KRG)
Print article Send to friend
Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani today arrived in Baghdad for meetings with Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki on key issues concerning Iraq as a whole and the Kurdistan Region.

Prime Minister Barzani, who heads a delegation from the Kurdistan Region, will meet Prime Minister Maliki to discuss the current political process in Iraq, national reconciliation and government efforts to reinforce law and order. The talks will also focus on the hydro-carbon law, Article 140 regarding the disputed territories and the Peshmerga forces.

Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir, the Kurdistan Regional Government's Head of the Department of Foreign Relations, said, "The aim of these talks is the establishment of proper mechanisms for relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the federal government in Baghdad. Additionally, the aim is to push for the creation of a hydro-carbon law which includes an efficient free-market approach, enhancing the private sector, encouraging foreign investment, and securing transparency as its main principles."

Mr Bakir, speaking to KRG.org, said, "The Kurdistan Regional Government acts on behalf of all the people of Iraq and within the constitutional framework. As for Kirkuk and the other disputed territories, the KRG reiterates its position on achieving a peaceful and just solution for this problem, which is seen in the full implementation of Article 140 as stipulated in the Iraqi Constitution."
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 2:24 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Report: Iraqi Official Kills US Soldier
June 23, 2008
Mclatchy -Tribune News Service
BAGHDAD, Iraq - One U.S. soldier was killed and five others were wounded Monday in a bizarre shooting incident near the town of Salman Pak, south of Baghdad, according to U.S. and Iraqi authorities.

Iraqi authorities said a member of the town council, which is part of the U.S.-allied Iraqi government, carried out the shootings,

An Iraqi police captain, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the incident, said local council member Raed Hmood Ajil opened fire on the U.S. troops for unknown reasons and was killed at the scene by American forces. The account could not immediately be verified.

The U.S. military could confirm only that "initial reports indicate one Coalition forces (soldier) killed in action, five Coalition forces soldiers wounded in action and one enemy killed in action" at 1 p.m. Monday in the Salman Pak area.

U.S. and Iraqi authorities are investigating.
(www.military.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 23, 2008 2:33 PM


terry853 wrote:

RobN. Thank you for all the updates. All the other sites are down as of about 1140 PST here in Fort St.John,BC.My drill rig starts up on Tues. or Wed. RIDDLE ME THIS folks. Look at what is happening in the world with the cost of oil. Thanks to Rob we know how much Iraq made in May. Imagine June. Imagine when they are producing triple that amount, if not more, in 2 years. The question of the riddle is, could Iraq be the Golden Bullet that keeps the world economy from tanking. With the right investment they could be producing 8 mbd in Three years. I have worked the oil patch in northern Canukville for 15 years. I know of which I speak. I also believe that Iraq sits on over 300 billion barrels of easy to get at light oil, plus all the sour oil, amount unknown to me..could our situation as investors in Iraq look more promising. Hey Timbits,,where you at...Terry..

-- June 23, 2008 3:26 PM


Sara wrote:

Authorities in Iraq arrest man allegedly involved in killing 100 people
Military and Security
6/23/2008

BAGHDAD, June 23 (KUNA) -- Security forces in Baghdad arrested a man on Monday, who was allegedly the mastermind behind the blowing up of an explosive-planted car that killed around 100 people, and injured 170 others, mostly university students back in 2007.

The suspect, Omar Abdkhaled Hamady Al-Kartan, planned the explosion in front of Al-Mostansariya University in Baghdad, according to spokesperson for the Iraqi forces, Major-General Qasim Atta.

Al-Kartan, a terrorist, has been wanted by Iraqi authorities for some time now, and was apprehended during a raid on the district of Al-Shakiriya in Baghdad.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1920045&Language=en

-- June 23, 2008 4:09 PM


Sara wrote:

US Commander says attacks in Iraq down since last year
Military and Security
6/23/2008

WASHINGTON, June 23 (KUNA) -- A US military commander in Iraq said on Monday that weekly attacks in Iraq dropped from 1,200 to 200 since June of last year.

"While the improved security is a great achievement, we clearly understand that our progress is fragile, and we continue to work to make this progress irreversible", said Commander of Multinational Corps in Iraq Army Lieutenant General Lloyd Austin to reporters via satellite from Baghdad.

In a Pentagon News Conference, Austin said violence in Iraq also witnessed a 70 percent decrease in roadside-bomb attacks and an 85 percent increase in the number of weapons caches found over last year.

"I attribute most of these hard-fought gains in security to a few key factors: our coalition forces aggressively pursuing the enemy, the improving capability of the Iraqi security forces, and the Iraqi people participating in the rebuilding process of Iraq", he added.

Austin asserted that al-Qaeda in Iraq remains the "primary threat ... and are still capable of launching spectacular attacks", but noted that al-Qaeda is "on its heels" now.

"We continue to aggressively pursue al-Qaeda and to take away their safe havens and to close off all their escape routes when they try to flee", he added.

"Iraqis understand that al-Qaeda and outside influences are not in the best interest of their country", concluded Austin.

http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1920164&Language=en

-- June 23, 2008 4:12 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq safer but not ready to stand alone
LOLITA C. BALDOR / AP
Monday, June 23, 2008

WASHINGTON - The U.S. military buildup in Iraq is about to end.

But as the last of the five additional combat brigades now heads home, it leaves the country far safer than it was a year ago. Yet it is still not ready to stand alone.

The departure of the 2nd Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division will lower U.S. troop levels there to roughly 142,000 U.S. troops by mid-July, at least 7,000 more than before the buildup began. But it also sets up pivotal election year questions about how many more can come home this year, and whether the decline in violence can be maintained by the fledgling Iraqi security forces.

A report due out Monday is expected to lay out significant political, economic and security progress in Iraq, with some violence statistics down by more than 80 percent over last year's numbers.

Attacks against coalition forces and civilians have dropped and Iraqis have been turning in weapons caches at record rates.

Still, a U.S. commander in Baghdad acknowledged Monday that the Iraqi troops remain dependent on coalition support for logistics, surveillance and intelligence, and nowhere in Iraq can they do the job completely alone.

"There are no areas ... that we would be willing to separate out right now to dedicate specifically to the Iraqi security forces," said Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin, "We've been clear about saying that they're not there yet. There are still some things that need to be done."

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered a glimmer of hope Monday that troop levels in Iraq will continue to come down this year. He said he hopes that if Iraq continues to improve, he will be able to free some U.S. forces later this year to send to Afghanistan.

"Iraq is in a much better place than it was a year ago, across the board," said Mullen, speaking to a large gathering of military and civilian workers in the Pentagon auditorium. "We're not at the sustainable point yet, we're not at the irreversible point yet."

http://www.macroworldinvestor.com/m/m.w?lp=GetStory&id=311534841

-- June 23, 2008 4:16 PM


willie wrote:

Carole
Haven't gone anywhere. Usually check the web site out weekly. I pray I never lose my relationship with Jesus as that is ALL that matters. I count everything else as dung' for the knowledge of Jesus Christ. That I may win Christ. Forgetting those things which are behind, pressing toward the mark for the prize of the high calling of God in Jesus Christ. Be ever so careful as their are many enemies of the cross of Christ. Their end is destruction. But our conversation is heaven; from where we look for our Saviour, the Lord Jesus Christ. Who shall change our vile body, as unto his glorious body on that precious day. (Paraphrased: Phillipians 4,ver 8-21). For what good is it to attain all this wealth and lose my soul? Lord help us put this in perspective.

-- June 23, 2008 4:23 PM


Sara wrote:

I agree with terry, thanks, Rob N, for the updates. :)

And I agree with you, terry, that, QUOTE: "Iraq may be the Golden Bullet that keeps the world economy from tanking."
It is a very "fortunate" circumstance that Iraq could shortly end up in that position - for them and the world.
It would not have been and we would have faced this crisis without the prospect of any future hope, if the US had not gone into Iraq when it did.
However, that doesn't mean that oil was the reason for going into Iraq..
but it was in the plan of the Almighty all along.. with His eye toward protecting the world economy for us all.
He looks after it all for us all.

People who attribute all the right moves to mere men don't see the hand of God above it all.
The US moved to do what was right.. and it ends up helping the world economy.
Sounds like someone planned it all from the beginning.
Well.. God did.

As The Los Angeles Times article, "Bush never lied to us about Iraq - The administration simply got bad intelligence. Critics are wrong to assert deception." By James Kirchick, June 16, 2008 said, QUOTE: "After Sept. 11, President Bush did not want to risk allowing Hussein, who had twice invaded neighboring nations, murdered more than 1 million Iraqis and stood in violation of 16 U.N. Security Council resolutions, to remain in possession of what he believed were stocks of chemical and biological warheads and a nuclear weapons program. By glossing over this history, the Democrats' lies-led-to-war narrative provides false comfort in a world of significant dangers."

THAT was the reason for taking care of business in Iraq by deposing Saddam.

HOWEVER, I admit to you that this appears to have served even greater purposes.. ones which may ultimately, as you just said, "keep the world economy from tanking." And THAT has to be the work of a caring, benevolent Creator.. who works more than one thing from any one event. Because ALL things work together for the ultimate good.. as He wills it to.. because He is in ultimate control of all the great events on His planet. :)

Psa 24:1 The earth is the LORD's, and the fulness thereof; the world, and all they that dwell therein.
Hag 2:8 The silver is mine, and the gold is mine, says the LORD of hosts.
Psa 50:10 For every beast of the forest is mine, and the cattle upon a thousand hills.

It is, after all.. all His, and we only temporary creatures who possess things for a short while on His planet, then are gone.
But I sure hope He will shortly give us Dinarians some of HIS gold and silver.. as well as prospering Iraq and the USA.. :)
After all.. can He not do what He wishes with what is His OWN.. including the "silver and gold" of the earth?
And who can say "Hey, you are not allowed to do that with Your money (silver and gold)." IRAN?
Surely the only one who can determine where His gold and silver ends up.. is the one who ultimately owns it.. God.
Even the Iraqis are but stewards of that treasure He placed beneath their feet.. for their good, and ours.
So for us Christians who look to God in hope.. we look to our God to give us this revalue.
May He be pleased to do so.. very soon. :)

Sara.

-- June 23, 2008 4:40 PM


Sara wrote:

Willie said, "what good is it to attain all this wealth and lose my soul?

Why, no good at all. To keep your soul for eternity is the key thing, of course, brother.
But you are not among those whose souls stand in such peril, Willie.
Those who are unsure of God and their standing with Him must make sure to attain to the keeping of their souls for eternity - by repenting in prayer to God (asking Him to forgive you for all you have done wrong in offense toward Him) and seeking to make sure of Him as their own God by asking Him to be their Lord and Savior, in Jesus' Name.

But surely you see and agree that God can use His "silver and gold" - which is HIS to give.. to bring about right and good purposes - as Joseph found in Egypt when God used great wealth and supply from Egypt to protect His people during a time of difficulty and famine. God can use means (even wealth) for His purposes and to look after and protect His own. Do not despise the goodness of the Lord even in material things.. though the spiritual is far richer and more permanent, I admit. Don't you believe God led you into this Dinar venture for a reason, and for your ultimate good?

Sara.

-- June 23, 2008 5:02 PM


Tsalagi wrote:

terry853

I sure enjoyed your comments about the light Iraqi crude being a boon for the world economy. I also read the other day about their plans to supply natural gas to Europe via pipelines. Makes me think the Dinar will make all of us happy!!

-- June 23, 2008 7:34 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq to award oil contracts by end of June
Source: BI-ME and AFP , Author: BI-ME staff
23-06-2008

IRAQ. Iraq will award contracts to 41 foreign oil firms in a bid to boost production that could give multinationals a potentially lucrative foothold in huge but underdeveloped oil fields, an official said on Sunday.

“We chose 35 companies of international standard, according to their finances, environment and experience, and we granted them permission to extract oil,” Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad told AFP.

Six other state-owned oil firms from Algeria, Angola, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam will also be awarded extraction deals, Jihad said.

The agreements, to be signed on 30 June, are expected to be short-term arrangements although the Ministry has yet to provide a timeframe.

The deal paves the way for global energy giants to return to Iraq 36 years after late dictator Saddam Hussein chased them out, and is seen as a first step to access the earth’s third largest proven crude reserves.

“They will have the first right to develop the fields,” said Jihad, adding that competitive bidding would come later once the nation’s long-delayed hydrocarbon law is passed by parliament.

http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?c=3&cg=2&t=1&id=21659

-- June 24, 2008 12:12 AM


Roger wrote:

Hi all,

Read recently about the daily life in Iraq, the booze shops are opening up, ( well, perhaps they need a beer after all), the women are dressing up in jeans, and are looking sexy again, the men wants a full face shave, and they are very leery about the government that they consider very corrupt.

They are well aware of that the government consist of different religious factions, as it was elected the first time, and according to the article, they have grown leery against those exact religious factions.

They have grown less religious in the sense that big screamers, screaming "In God's Name" for every crime that was committed, is more like crime suspects today. Most probably in a couple of years,( and I do believe not too many), the political scene will move away from religious factions and go into the Democracy classic left/right scenario.

That move, a move that is now starting to be visible, will put a marker, a line between the state and the religion.

Mullahs and Sheiks are losing their grip, and the only alternative will be ordinary political parties.

All bigger religious factions in Iraq are for all intent and purposes politically out maneuvered by now, as the Iraqi Govt themselves are taking over more and more control over their land.

This is wildly recognised, and even if the Iraqis are seeing the Iraqi govt as very corrupt, they are with and support the institution as such, as a better alternative to Sheiks and Mullahs.

Lovers are holding hands on the streets today, and the evolution of the Iraqi people is now going in the direction of self independence, self deciding and by own will.

Part of the international oil analysis for the future, involves Iraq as a future oil distributor, an issue that in the past was not considered when the MSM was blasting info bits into the screens with body parts and gore. The Iraqi oil potential, was then just a theoretical future. Now it is part of the equation, in the same grade as the assessment of higher fuel prices in China, and a higher oil out put by the Saudis, and the scare that Israel will bomb Iran, curtailing world oil output.

The Iraq oil, the Big Oil Guys going in, doing a number, is in the mix now.

Will there be an RV, well Iraq needs it, but that is as elusive as ever before.

There are good news, but still, that's what we are served, the good news are always recieved as positive, and not much to argue about....

But....

Still the oil boom have not even started, still the oil laws are not passed, still the ISX statistics are an amplification of the bottom line, still the Iraqi army is not able to fully operate themselves, still .....

Barber shops, booze shops, bazaars and markets are opening up, and that is all good for the economy, but no heavy movers are rolling so far.

Super hotels ala Dubai or UAE is planned, and the drawings look great, but the land they are suppose to be built on, is still in need of manicure from abandoned burned out vehicles, and brush.

Cement, steel/iron industry, hotel industry, agricultural industry, is still working with rusted up squeaky parts, and have an abysmal production compared with any other industry outside of Iraq.

So they still import almost everything they need. They have the basic resources to produce it all at home, but not the means.

All while getting bundles of oil money, so much that they cant spend it.

A dream scenario for an RV, but again, the policy is -"A decision not made, is the better policy".

So, with all the good news, no movement.

The good thing though is that now when the small merchant base is starting up again, the economy internally is slowly picking up, but this is based on corner stores and small shops, not on heavy industry, manufacturing or high volume production.

Smaller business will make a difference internally but it will not have an international impact, so the Dinar will be based on ( God only knows, definitely not reason anyway) the existing small shop economy.

So all in all, things are good over there right now, (at least much much better) , but the good stuff is small caliber economy, good enough to let the Iraqi man be able to get what he needs, (and right now, he probably will be very happy with that, but that will not stay for long).

Based on all this, I see no other alternative other than the recovery of the Dinar will be based on when the big wheels starts to roll in Iraq, and for now, they're not.

In about two weeks from now I will be in Houston, for indoctrination before I leave for Iraq, so by the middle of next month I (hopefully....I can still be disqualified) will be there. The issue of going, have been dragging for a while, but is now moving along very well.

Depending on the availability of pjuters, I will post from time to time from over there, it is for sure not too bad to have a pair of eyes on the ground.

I might not be able to move around in the society in the way I wish, because of the nature of my activity as a contractor, I will most probably be confined to military bases, but whatever I can snap up, that can be told, I will send over.

As it is more of a ground perspective, I probably will get more info on the big picture, from this site, than I can get in Iraq, as I will live in a pretty confined social bubble.

Sara,

huuuuuuuug,

Time to hit the sand flees, desert spiders, dust and 140 F,

See ya all

Roger

-- June 24, 2008 12:59 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

Thanks for saying that you believe it is worthwhile to vote for McCain rather than sitting out or throwing a protest vote. And that you understand why you must support the GOP, even though the present candidate may not be the best pick to represent your own interests. You do see that McCain is the better candidate of the two, and any other choice is a vote to endorse Obama and his radical leftist anti-American agenda.

James Dobson will be speaking Tuesday against Obama's distorting the Bible, his support for killing the unborn and his "fruitcake interpretation of the Constitution."

===

Dobson accuses Obama of 'distorting' Bible
Jun 23, 2008
By ERIC GORSKI
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.

(AP) - As Barack Obama broadens his outreach to evangelical voters, one of the movement's biggest names, James Dobson, accuses the likely Democratic presidential nominee of distorting the Bible and pushing a "fruitcake interpretation" of the Constitution.

The criticism is to be aired Tuesday on Dobson's Focus on the Family radio program and the conservative Christian group provided The Associated Press with an advance copy of the pre-taped radio segment, which runs 18 minutes.

Dobson took aim at examples Obama cited in asking which Biblical passages should guide public policy - chapters like Leviticus, which Obama said suggests slavery is OK and eating shellfish is an abomination, or Jesus' Sermon on the Mount, "a passage that is so radical that it's doubtful that our own Defense Department would survive its application."

Dobson and Minnery accused Obama of wrongly equating Old Testament texts and dietary codes that no longer apply to Jesus' teachings in the New Testament.

"I think he's deliberately distorting the traditional understanding of the Bible to fit his own worldview, his own confused theology," Dobson said.

"... He is dragging biblical understanding through the gutter."

Dobson reserved some of his harshest criticism for Obama's argument that the religiously motivated must frame debates over issues like abortion not just in their own religion's terms but in arguments accessible to all people.

He said Obama, who supports abortion rights, is trying to govern by the "lowest common denominator of morality," labeling it "a fruitcake interpretation of the Constitution."

"Am I required in a democracy to conform my efforts in the political arena to his bloody notion of what is right with regard to the lives of tiny babies?" Dobson said. "What he's trying to say here is unless everybody agrees, we have no right to fight for what we believe."

The program was paid for by a Focus on the Family affiliate whose donations are taxed, Dobson said, so it's legal for that group to get more involved in politics.

Obama recently met in Chicago with religious leaders, including conservative evangelicals. His campaign also plans thousands of "American Values House Parties," where participants discuss Obama and religion, as well as a presence on Christian radio and blogs.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080624/D91G51AG0.html

-- June 24, 2008 1:04 AM


Sara wrote:

Roger;

Huggggggg back, my friend.
But you might not be going, ya know.
I hear it will RV before you are scheduled to go.
Would the Dinar RV change your plans? :)

As for your interesting post.. I agree, the Iraqis NEED the RV as it appears that nothing can move forward in a substantial way without it, really - other than the small internally-based shops, as you observed. The Iraqis need international recognition and help to get things happening. This involves the RV, the SOFA (for security) and the HCL law, too.. but mostly.. they need a currency with value to put impetus and strength into their economy. There is no need for anything else to actually go before they implement the RV. We can see that there will be a SOFA eventually - Iraq needs it to protect themselves. The HCL will eventually be settled (they have proven they can get it together and work things out politically - they have the political will). So as for the RV.. simply..

It must be done.
This, too, is an act of mercy. (Ps 89:2)
Lord knows, we all need it (I mean the Iraqis too).

Sara.

-- June 24, 2008 1:33 AM


Roger wrote:

Sara,

You're a scholar in the Biblical department, can you tell the correct interpretation please.

I have heard the Biblical expression -"The root of all evil is money"

Isn't it meant that the "Root of all evil is the LOVE for money"????

Money in itself is a dead horse, and is only a symbol of energy expelled versus energy stored.

Like a gun, it causes crime about as much as flies causes garbage, pens that misspells, and cars that causes drunk driving. (Consequently, if we forbid guns, flies, pens and cars, thus, we will have no crime, no garbage, misspellings, and drunk driving).

Money is about as a dead object as you can imagine. It's not even an object to speak of, flimsy paper, but only a concept, at best.

The logic is so off the point, if the root of all evil is money, because then, following that exact same basic principal of designation of evil, any object that is used negatively can then be decided to be the basis of all evil.

In Christianity, Islam and Judaism, we have this God, ok he is on top of the food chain, and I can imagine that if a God that is almighty wants his followers to follow him more than anything else, would like to have the liking of his followers, and thus if someone likes money better, then that God could set a rule that -"you can't love money more than me".

That makes much more sense to me, rather than "The root of all evil is money".

Can you please develop on this, I am not a Biblical scholar in the same grade as you are, heck I don't really follow the one God principal, I think we all are part of the enchilada in one way or the other, but from a Christian Biblical perspective, I would like to know what the money deal is?

I am in particular, reacting to the negativity that Christianity is labeling on to money, connecting it with sin, evil and all that.

It's so much..."can't have"..."and must do" ....involved with it, that it seems like a subject that is very mentally charged in some sick way.

Seems like any issue that is "Holy" will always become screwed up.

Most anything Islam is doing is "holy" and they are so screwed up that it is pathetic, they can't do anything more or less, with the risk of offending Mecca.

The Native American had a very sane group of people, great clans, where everyone was taken care of, and a strong feeling of belonging, but in one area of their life, the area of the nature, forest, birds, trees, mountains and so on, they were totally screwed up, everything was ( and still is) "holy", and thus the Indian population was unable to make use of the land, and was bound to continue to live as hunters and gatherers.

A religious perspective on money, to me have always been filled with inaccuracies, wrong designation of it's nature and wrong statement of how it works.

I have in fact a very hard time to see any religious aspect on the subject of money in the first place, but can only understand if religion have an aspect of peoples relationship to money.

The money itself, have about as much life into it, as a railroad spike.

We could of course make railroad spikes into money, that is technically doable, and you will then find people start loving railroad spikes.

Still the railroad spike in itself is about as dead object as it always have been, and always will be.

Therefore, railroad spikes can never be the root of all evil, as much as money is the root of all evil.

Sara, better leave the floor to you now.

Roger


-- June 24, 2008 2:04 AM


Sara wrote:

Carole;

I pray that God will protect His lambs and sheep from this WOLF in sheep's clothing - Obama - who has the blood of tiny babies on his hands - and has actually voted for and fully endorses a child being partially born, then cutting them during the act of birthing and sucking their brains out. That is the stark reality of the fruits of his endorsement and vote for partial birth abortion. May God stand between Obama and His church and not allow this wolf to deceive the elect into endorsing Obama who is both complicit and an accessory to murder - and shall be judged as one.

1Jo 3:15 .. you know that no murderer has eternal life abiding in him.

I hope Obama repents.. but the church (and moral majority) should not follow or endorse those who murder the unborn - and particularly anyone who endorses that heinous practice of murdering a child at the age of nine months gestation as the child is in the act of being born. Obama does not belong to the God whom I serve, and God's word will judge him in that day for his complicity and being an accessory to the murder of these innnocent babies whose deaths he has voted to endorse, "no murderer has eternal life abiding in him."

Obama's stands - including a 100% rating for pro-choice in his voting record:

Undecided on whether life begins at conception. (Apr 2008)
Teach teens about abstinence and also about contraception. (Apr 2008)
GovWatch: Obama's "present" votes were a requested strategy. (Feb 2008)
Expand access to contraception; reduce unintended pregnancy. (Feb 2008)
Rated 100% by NARAL on pro-choice votes in 2005, 2006 & 2007. (Jan 2008)
Voted against banning partial birth abortion. (Oct 2007)
Stem cells hold promise to cure 70 major diseases. (Aug 2007)
Trust women to make own decisions on partial-birth abortion. (Apr 2007)
Extend presumption of good faith to abortion protesters. (Oct 2006)
Constitution is a living document; no strict constructionism. (Oct 2006)
Moral accusations from pro-lifers are counterproductive. (Oct 2004)
Pass the Stem Cell Research Bill. (Jun 2004)
Protect a woman's right to choose. (May 2004)
Supports Roe v. Wade. (Jul 1998)
Voted NO on defining unborn child as eligible for SCHIP. (Mar 2008)
Voted NO on prohibiting minors crossing state lines for abortion. (Mar 2008)
Voted YES on expanding research to more embryonic stem cell lines. (Apr 2007)
Voted NO on notifying parents of minors who get out-of-state abortions. (Jul 2006)
Voted YES on $100M to reduce teen pregnancy by education & contraceptives. (Mar 2005)
Sponsored bill providing contraceptives for low-income women. (May 2006)
Rated 0% by the NRLC, indicating a pro-choice stance. (Dec 2006)
Ensure access to and funding for contraception. (Feb 2007)
http://www.ontheissues.org/Barack_Obama.htm

I find it ironic that the Muslim terrorists who decry the immorality and murder of innocent babies in the West endorse Obama who is a murderer of the unborn. But perhaps they see his endorsement as killing more of the infidels' children, and so a service to their cause.

Sara.

-- June 24, 2008 2:10 AM


Roger wrote:

Sara,

If they RV before I leave, I stay.....well if it is a substantial enough RV.

An RV that dramatically will change my way of life, for that I stay.

An RV that made the change, that I will able to buy a Mercedes, compared with being able to buy a Ford Taurus, and that is the end of the difference....na, that was not a difference.

I however don't think that an RV is imminent, a statement that I hope is wrong, but really, nothing seems to happen over there, another goat barbie....and the decision to do something will have to be on the next guy up in the hierarchy, and the next guy up, will say the same.

But hey, for sure, if an RV comes, in whatever form it comes....I'll take it, I promise that I will NOT protest.

-- June 24, 2008 2:18 AM


willie wrote:

Sara
In Phil 2:12 It saids to work on your salvation with fear and trembling. In Matt 7:13-14 saids " Enter ye in at the straight gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: Because straight is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and FEW THEIR BE THAT FIND IT". Maybe you feel that you are in that place,and I praise God if you are, but I surely do not. Even as in Matt 7:21-23 the scripture saids "Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in heaven. Many will say to me in that day, Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in thy name? and in the name have cast out devils? and in thy name done many wonderful works? And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you; depart from me, ye that work iniquity". I need not tell you since you also have read these words many times. I don't want to be turned away and my salvation is very important to me. Yes I believe God did lead me to invest in dinar, but for His works and not my pleasure. My treasure is in heaven not here on earth.

-- June 24, 2008 2:56 AM


Sara wrote:

Roger;

Glad to hear it. :)
Hope you get to stay because the Dinar RVs.
They really NEED to do it.
I hope.. and pray.. they will.
Working on the reply to you on money.. trying to whittle it down, I got verbose.

Willie;

I understand. You also must pray as I have done:

Pro 30:8 Remove far from me vanity and lies: give me neither poverty nor riches; feed me with food convenient for me:
Pro 30:9 Lest I be full, and deny You, and say, Who is the LORD? or lest I be poor, and steal, and take the name of my God in vain.

When I prayed that, earnestly.. the Lord restricted me in how much Dinar I could buy! :(
Chuckle.. In explanation.. He said I was not to have too much, lest others say that they have made me rich.. when it was God.
He has led me into other ventures also.

So I know what you mean about that issue of caution and working on your salvation with fear and trembling. Also, not wishing to be turned away from Him. We are but human.. and can be tempted. I don't wish any thing to take me from the Lord. He must remain first always in my heart. I would like to think I could be a billionaire and not deny Him.. but I doubt I could do so, honestly. And the Lord assures me, He will guide how much I make and not allow me to make too much in my investments, including the Dinar... He will keep me on the "narrow way" so I don't fall. The lessons He teaches me aren't always easy, but I prefer them to the alternative of actually falling.

So I agree with you that God led us into the Dinar.. "but for His works and not my pleasure. My treasure is in heaven not here on earth." We are to be stewards of whatever He gives us and not wish for more than we are allowed to have, and we are to seek Him and use what He gives us as He directs.

Sara.

-- June 24, 2008 4:05 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Kurdish PM in Baghdad for talks on oil law
Kurdistan PM has brought new proposals to Baghdad to resolves disputes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 June 2008 (Reuters)
Print article Send to friend
The prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan has brought new proposals to Baghdad to discuss with the central government to try to resolve disputes over a deadlocked national oil law, an official said on Sunday.

Iraq's cabinet agreed a draft oil law in February last year, but it has failed to get through parliament partly because of rows between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad over who will control oil reserves and contracts.

Iraq needs billions of dollars to modernise its oil industry and raise output after decades of sanctions and war, but uncertainty over the law has stalled foreign investment.

Jamal Abdullah, spokesman for the KRG, declined to outline the proposals brought to Baghdad by Nechirvan Barzani, prime minister of the largely autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, but said they were a 'good initiative'.

'These are new suggestions to offer to the Iraqi central government,' Abdullah said, adding Barzani arrived on Saturday.

'These proposals represent a new initiative, a good initiative. The Kurdish side hopes this will help solve all the differences over the oil law.'

He said members of the delegation included the KRG's top energy official, Ashti Hawrami.

In Dubai earlier this month, Barzani said the KRG and the central government would discuss a package of proposals covering the draft oil law, revenue sharing, the functions of the oil ministry and a national oil company to oversee the industry.

Tensions have also arisen over contracts the KRG has signed with foreign energy firms. The oil ministry in Baghdad has called the deals illegal. The KRG says they are constitutional.

Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves at around 115 billion barrels, although Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said in April reserves could be as much as 350 billion barrels.

In the absence of the oil law, Baghdad has been negotiating six short-term technical service contracts with foreign oil majors with the aim of lifting output at its largest producing fields by a combined 500,000 barrels a day.

Oil Minister Hussain Al Shahristani is expected to announce on June 30 the names of the majors that have won the deals, which are worth around $500 million each.

Five of the deals that have been under discussion are with Royal Dutch Shell RDSa.L, Shell in partnership with BHP Billiton BHP.AX, BP BP.L, Exxon Mobil XOM.N and Chevron CVX.N in partnership with Total TOTF.PA.

Iraq has also been in talks with a consortium of Anadarko APC.N, Vitol and Dome for a sixth contract.

Shahristani has said Baghdad also plans to offer many of the same large producing fields in a bidding round for long-term development projects either at the end of June or in early July. Baghdad has prequalified 41 firms to bid for those contracts.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 8:35 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

KRG signs petroleum contracts with Talisman Energy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Erbil, 24 June 2008 (KRG)
Print article Send to friend
Dr Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Minister for Natural Resources, today announced that the KRG has signed two petroleum contracts with wholly-owned subsidiaries of Talisman Energy Inc. (Talisman), an independent upstream oil and gas company headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

“The Kurdistan Region continues to attract blue-chip oil investment”, said Dr Hawrami. “Talisman is a company which brings great global experience and a world-class commitment to the communities in the countries in which they invest. We look forward to working together.”

The contracts were signed by KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and Dr Hawrami, together with Talisman representatives, in Erbil on Thursday 19 June.

Kalar-Bawanoor block

One subsidiary of Talisman, Talisman (Block K44) B.V., will take a 40% interest, previously held by the KRG as a Third Party Interest, in the Kalar-Bawanoor Block, (also published on KRG maps as “Block K44”). It will join existing investor WesternZagros Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of WesternZagros Resources Ltd., as a participant in the production sharing contract, with WesternZagros retaining its 40% interest. The remaining 20% participation interest will be held by the KRG, carried by WesternZagros Limited.

Block K39

A second subsidiary of Talisman, Talisman (Block K39) B.V., will conduct under a service agreement a two year exploration programme in the K39 Block (revised coordinates). The service agreement grants Talisman an option to take up a long-term production sharing contract after two years, in which they will hold a 60% participation interest, with the remaining 40% held by the KRG (20% of it being fully carried by Talisman for the benefit of a KRG owned public company, and the other 20% to become available as a Third Party Interest to be awarded to new investors by the KRG).

Capacity building and community support

As a condition of their investment, Talisman has committed, as part of its corporate social responsibility, to pay 220 million US dollars, and further conditional payments, to a segregated account under the oversight of the Kurdistan National Assembly (Parliament) for the purpose of rehabilitating the communities in areas of their petroleum activities, through infrastructure and capacity building projects. The Talisman blocks are close to the town of Halabja and some of the worst affected Anfal areas in which thousands of Iraqi Kurds were killed by poison gas in Saddam Hussain’s genocidal campaign in the 1980s. The community of Halabja and the nearby Anfalised areas remain in great need of infrastructure support, including schools and hospitals, power and drinking water, and investment in human capital.

Revenue from crude oil and gas exports

The contracts agreed with Talisman were based on the KRG’s published model production sharing contract and commercial terms. As with all Kurdistan Region petroleum operations, the contracts are governed by the Kurdistan Region Oil and Gas Law, which entered into force in August 2007.

The KRG adheres to its commitment to forward petroleum revenues from the Kurdistan Region for Iraq-wide revenue sharing when a federal revenue sharing law is in place. The KRG is bound by its own law to the principles of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, and Talisman, in the two contracts, has committed to the same principles.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 8:36 AM


Sara wrote:

Roger;

You are perfectly right.. the root of all evil is the LOVE of money, not money itself.

It is when people put aside all moral considerations to obtain money, that money is condemned in the Scripture. It is LOVING money.. more than God, which is evil. It is tossing out the morality of God (Love your neighbor as yourself, etc) in order to have money at any cost which is evil. Which is why Jesus said you cannot serve two masters.. God AND money. One must be the master.. God or money.

1Ti 6:10 For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.
Mat 6:24 No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. You cannot serve God and money.

Money itself is not evil.
Loving it so you would do anything to get it.. is.

It is the SERVING of money, as a slave does its master, that is wrong.
And you must admit.. many people do. They will do ANYTHING for the almighty buck -
Sell illegal goods, sell humans, kill humans, break laws, seek to overthrow laws so they might make money,
deceive people so as to obtain their money..
at the root of all evil, is this sin of wanting money more than to please God and do what is right.

God is very VERY sensitive on this issue. I think he sees it as a grave danger to man.
The reason He does not dare, often, to give people money, is that few can handle it.
I think money has destroyed more lives than He wishes to count.

When the Dinar RVs, many lives will be blown apart and destroyed.. by the money.
People think they will be able to handle a lot of wealth.. but many of them are mistaken.
I once thought I could, too.. but God has convinced me otherwise.
I need to rely on God carefully and not see it as a good circumstance to be given wealth suddenly..
but as a potential danger and evil - something He has warned me about.

Part of the reason is - that once you have money, others will know you have it.
And they will try very hard to take it from you and obtain it for themselves.
I don't think all the people who obtain Dinar money will be fully prepared for what temptations and problems will come to them. It isn't just relatives and friends putting their hands out.. it is deceivers and professional cons.

There are many dangers in having money which those who have never had a lot of it don't know or understand.
The Lord told me MOST of the Dinarians will lose the money very quickly. Not intentionally, I don't think.
But they will lose it, just the same.
They just don't have a clue what a danger money can be.. from those who wish to obtain it from them.

You hit it totally right on when you said money is, "Like a gun, it causes crime about as much as flies causes garbage, pens that misspells, and cars that causes drunk driving. (Consequently, if we forbid guns, flies, pens and cars, thus, we will have no crime, no garbage, misspellings, and drunk driving)."

You are right that guns don't cause crime, the people breaking the laws WITH guns do.
It is what is in the heart of man, not the inanimate tool of guns or money, which make the tool work for good or evil.
Money can be used to buy a building to set up printing presses to print Bibles.. or to use the same space to create a brothel. Which use of money do you think God would wish? Which is helpful to mankind?

I say that illustration because I have actually been in a chat where one Dinarian (a female) said that creating brothels was her dream.. It is what she wishes to do with her Dinar RV money.. because she says it will always make her a good living.
I think the RV of the Dinar will be both a blessing (to the good, who will use it for good) and a curse (to those who serve money).
It was of such importance that people not serve other interests like money first (above God)..
that it is actually contained in the FIRST commandment of the Ten Commandments which God gave to Moses.
The first commandment teaches not to love anything more than God so as to make it a god to you.
This is not because God is egotistical. What is the at issue here is the heart issue which can make money to be used for evil.

Exo 20:3 You shall have no other gods before me.

And THAT includes money.
If people put GOD first and seek to please Him, no harm will come to them.

1Pe 3:13 And who is he that will harm you, if you are followers of that which is good?

But if people don't put God first.. and seek to make money at any cost.. well, harm can come to them.
In the case of this Dinarian woman who wishes to open brothels and prosper through them.. couldn't it imperil her life?
(Not to mention her soul.. or what she will have to answer for on Judgement Day.. )

Now, I wish that Chrsitianity had understood what you said here about the LOVE of money being the root of all evil and not money itself. But somehow, Christianity got all mixed up about money when they mistook that Scripture and began to teach that poverty is a blessing and if you have money, you really should give it all up (for God). There isn't a Scripture that says poverty is a blessing or more holy.. but that didn't seem to stop them. The Bible does imply that it is easier for a poor person to accept and trust in God than a rich one, because often the rich trust in their riches. But that isn't actually an endorsement of being poor, though some grasp at straws and try to take it that way.

I am with you in reacting to that "negativity that Christianity is labeling on to money, connecting it with sin, evil and all that. It's so much..."can't have"..."and must do" ....involved with it, that it seems like a subject that is very mentally charged in some sick way."

I agree with you, honestly. Demonizing a stack of cash appears to me to be silly as well.
But if they are saying that IF money becomes connected to sin (buying a brothel?) then that money is evil.. they are right. But they often are not talking about the MISuse of money, but speak like the money itself is evil.
You are correct on that count when you say, quote, it "Seems like any issue that is "Holy" will always become screwed up."

I would say that is because there is a devil, frankly. And he has nothing better to do with his time than figure out ways to totally wreck anything Holy or good or true. It is his full-time job and he has become quite proficient at it over the years. Rather than taking issue with the wrong use of money, the church picked up a false teaching on money ITSELF being evil.. perhaps in part because it is so hard for man to refrain from being evil when once he becomes rich, and because men often rely on money (once they have it) instead of God. But to me, I see an issue here where the right way to view money was derailed, and I lay the blame for that with the enemy of men's souls - who works to defeat the good purposes God might use money for by demonizing the money itself. Poor people cannot use wealth to defeat the purposes of evil and allieviate suffering and oppression.

You note Islam and native religions.. all of mankind's reaching toward God, gets mixed up along the way. They seem to START with the right heart motivations.. and then it is like someone comes along and says, "Oh, GOOD.. I can totally wreck this by injecting some poisionous thoughts in here. Let's just say that because the environment is HOLY, we can't touch it, then they will be doomed to roam around and hunt and gather and never develop any technology and down the road we can bring in another culture which is superior and warlike and wipe them out." Well.. it sure SEEMS like someone said that, doesn't it?

Or with Islam, they do START with the most honorable of intentions.. but then.. how on earth do they get into kidnapping, raping, and murdering those who are supposed to be in the same faith.. in the name of the same religion and god? Doesn't that seem somehow.. incredibly twisted from the original intent? Again.. like someone got in there and moved them to think something totally strange? Well.. you know, Jesus was not insane.. He was a great teacher. And HE taught that there are other spiritual planes (think of them as String Theory's "brane's") and on them are these entities which can intersect our realities.. and can, well.. INFLUENCE human thought, for the worse. And when you look at the evidence.. it sure looks like that is true to me, in history - with these issues within these religious groups.. and with the Christian church and its views about money being evil itself and not just the wrong uses of it.

As you said, "A religious perspective on money, to me have always been filled with inaccuracies, wrong designation of it's nature and wrong statement of how it works."

Because of this, I have always been fascinated with God's explanations about money in the Bible and studied His concepts very carefully - because He had them written down so we can study them. You will note that the Israeli people, as a race, though very small in number, have an inordinate number of wise and prosperous people. I think it is because they study God's thoughts about money and learn how this world works and how to properly use money in a way that will end up for good and not evil in the end analysis.

But to use money properly, I believe that the very first step is not to believe that money is evil and that you need to get away from it and go live the life of a person who has none. Choosing to become poverty striken isn't going to solve the real problem which is where a person's heart is. A person can be poor and still covet and idolize money as much as a person who is rich. It is a heart attitude God is trying to correct here.

You said that you, "can only understand if religion has an aspect of peoples relationship to money." That is what the Bible teaches.. the proper relationship to money. It teaches the use of money for good - for moral purposes and to please God and the good aims He would have you use it for - so that money is a blessing to yourself and others, rather than using the money for selfishness and evil ends. NOT opening a brothel or an abortion clinic might seem rather obvious as a place to start.. but the teaching goes far deeper than the outward.

For instance, there was a rich young man who came to Jesus and he asked Jesus what he had to do to have eternal life. Jesus asked him whether he kept the commandments. The young man then said he had kept them all. Jesus knew he thought he was without error, but He also knew that his heart actually served his money and not God. So He gently asked him if he would take all his money, give it to the poor and come and follow Him. The man then knew that the money meant more to him than following God (he was in violation of the first command because God was not first, his money was), and he went away sorrowful.

Mar 10:17 And .. there came one running, and kneeled to Him, and asked him, Good Master, what shall I do that I may inherit eternal life?
Mar 10:18 And Jesus said to him... You know the commandments, Do not commit adultery, Do not kill, Do not steal, Do not bear false witness, Defraud not, Honour your father and mother.
Mar 10:20 And he answered and said to him, Master, all these have I observed from my youth.
Mar 10:21 Then Jesus beholding him loved him, and said to him, One thing you lack: go your way, sell whatsoever you have, and give to the poor, and you shall have treasure in heaven: and come, take up the cross, and follow Me.
Mar 10:22 And he was sad at that saying, and went away grieved: for he had great possessions.
Mar 10:23 And Jesus looked round about, and said to his disciples, How hardly shall they that have riches enter into the kingdom of God!
Mar 10:24 And the disciples were astonished at his words. But Jesus answered again, and said to them, Children, how hard is it for them that trust in riches to enter into the kingdom of God!
Mar 10:25 It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.

Here, Jesus said that those who are RICH trust in their riches and that makes it HARD for them to enter into God's kingdom, because they must totally stop trusting in riches and trust ONLY in God (just like the riches are not there). It is much easier to rely on money than on God. But if a person is truly relying on God, they don't have to give up all their money to follow Jesus. It was the heart issue God was dealing with here, not a directive for everyone who ever will follow Jesus - that they must give up all they have monetarily, give it to the poor and then follow Jesus. In this one case, the idol in the man's heart was his money. He loved it more than God and went away sorrowful because he could not give it up (at that time) to follow Jesus (or become a monk or nun). All people do not have the same heart issues. God looks at the heart, and judges completely right judgement concerning a person's inward motives. This true story shows us that the man came to Jesus knowing he did not have eternal life. His question to Jesus was.. what must I do to have eternal life? Jesus' answer was.. give up your idol and take God instead. His idol was money. And Jesus then went on to say that, for rich people.. that is often a problem. The rich often idolize their money. They rely and trust in it more than God. It truly IS an idol to them. The issue was the idol in the young man's heart, not all physical money (dollar bills).

Money is not an idol to everybody. King David and even his son, King Solomon.. they were very rich men and yet served God. Solomon was said to be the richest man on earth at that time. Yet, he loved God and wrote most of the book of Proverbs (as well as the Song of Solomon - lovely poetry and Ecclesiastes). David wrote many of the Psalms. Riches never got in the way of either of them serving God. It was not one of their weaknesses. Solomon managed money very well and explains a lot in Proverbs on how to manage money.. timeless principles which are true today. So from their lives we can see that having money is not evil, in itself. They had money, but God never once said it was evil for them to have obtained and continue to have money.

God is looking at people's hearts and it is a common fault of the rich to trust in their money rather than God. So to correct this human error, God taught (Old Testament Ten Commandments) and sent Jesus to teach mankind that they are not to LOVE money, but to love God and serve Him instead - first and only. This is not for God's self-aggrandisement. It is not so God can sit up there in heaven and selfishly say He has all these people who worship Him. It is because people who serve idols end up hurt or dead (people who serve money tend to have short lives), and God CARES about human lives and that they not be ruined. He is a loving God and the prohibition on serving money is for our good and protection.

The teaching can be summarized by someone came to Jesus and asked him: :

Mar 12:28 And one of the scribes came, and .. asked Him, Which is the first commandment of all?
Mar 12:29 And Jesus answered him, The first of all the commandments is, Hear, O Israel; The Lord our God is one Lord:
Mar 12:30 And you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your mind, and with all your strength: this is the first commandment.
Mar 12:31 And the second is like it, namely this, You shall love your neighbour as yourself. There is none other commandment greater than these.

That is really it in a nutshell.. Love God, love your fellow man. And most of all.. put nothing above that (including MONEY).

If the church taught this, then there would be more people who could see money as a blessing to be used for good purposes, and it would cause the work of God (the purposes of good on the earth) to prosper in many more realms as people used the money for good purposes instead of seeking to rid themselves of money like it is some kind of "curse." I think this false religious teaching of money being evil itself has been used to part more good people from their money than any con man's schemes.. and I think both the con man and this incorrect teaching have in common where their viewpoints come from - the evil one, for demonic gain and mankind's loss.

Sara.

-- June 24, 2008 12:11 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Sara:

As a precautionary method, I have chosen not to tell anyone of my investment in the Dinar. Furthermore, I do not plan to tell anyone once the exchange rate of the Dinar changes.

Concerning some Dinarians loosing their profits; allow me to make a suggestion. Never touch the principle. If one abides by this admonition, all Dinarians can save themselves the grief from loss of wealth.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 12:44 PM


Tsalagi wrote:

This sounds like the five major oil companies and the additional companies already have a "done deal".
If true...it's great news!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 June 2008 (Azzaman)

The Ministry of Oil has given 35 foreign oil firms the permission “to extract and develop” oil fields in Iraq, the ministry’s spokesman said.
>
>
>

http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php?refid=DH-S-24-06-2008&article=32882

-- June 24, 2008 1:40 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraqi PM discusses with Kurdish counterpart oil, gas bill

Baghdad - Voices of Iraq
Tuesday , 24 /06 /2008 Time 8:34:32




Baghdad, Jun 24, (VOI) – Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki on Tuesday discussed in Baghdad the oil and gas bill with his Kurdish counterpart Nejervan Barazani, said a statement issued by al-Maliki's office.


“They also discussed forming military divisions in the region,” the statement said, noting that al-Maliki described the talks as "positive".
"Al-Maliki today received at his office Nejervan Barazani, Kurdistan's regional premier, and his accompanying delegation," said the statement received by Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).
"During the meeting, various cases, bills, and legislations were discussed, especially the oil and gas bill," it added.
"Discussions were open and positive and tackled all issues of mutual concern, including the Peshmerga (Local Kurdish armed forces operating within Kurdistan region), forming military divisions in the region and financial resources," it explained.
"Progress in laws' enactment will be added to political, security, and economic successes," the release quoted al-Maliki as saying.
"We strongly support al-Maliki's government, and support its efforts regarding the operation Bashaer al-Salam (Promise of Peace) operation currently taking place in Missan, and other operations in Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul," the statement quoted Barazani as saying.
"We support all the measures taken by the federal government to achieve security and stability, and to preserve the state's respect throughout the country," he added.
On Saturday, Barazani arrived in Baghdad, carrying suggestions to al-Maliki regarding the oil and gas bill, as well as the oil contracts.
A heated controversy took place between the Iraqi oil ministry and the Kurdistan Regional Government KRG on oil contracts concluded by the latter in November 2007 with a number of foreign companies undertaking oil prospecting and production.
Iraq's central government Minister of Oil Hussein al-Shahrestani had threatened to have these contracts rescinded and the contracting companies punished by prohibiting any form of cooperation between them and the Iraqi government.
Several political and parliamentary blocs criticized the contracts, which were signed without prior approval by the Iraqi government and parliament.
(www.aswataliraq.info)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 2:12 PM


Sara wrote:

Rob N;

Good advice! :)
How many will take it?
And with the weasels.. trying to pry it out of their hands..
Sighh..
Good advice, though. :)

Tsalagi.. WOW.. what a find!
AWESOME news.. thanks!

Sara.

-- June 24, 2008 2:14 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

I do not have the article, but I read on another form a representitve from the Kurdish government stated the law on oil and gas is unlikely to pass parliment this legislative session. If true, we have a longer wait before seeing any significant change in the exchange rate.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 2:21 PM


Sara wrote:

Tsalagi.. On that article you posted the url to, it says:

The announcement comes as Iraqi legislators are still quarrelling over a draft oil and gas law. Iraq’s competing religious and ethnic groups thought no deals would be made before the passage of the law through parliament.

It looks to me like this could motivate them into making the oil law happen NOW to offset or oversee how these deals play out?
It must be good pressure on them to make the HCL, no matter how you look at it.
FINALLY, they are doing something good for Iraq!
As if the Iraqi politicians want to sell out the country..
They want to get the oil development going!! Sheesh!
Looks like they could be finally moving to get it done, Thank the Lord. :)

Sara.
PS Rob N - Not sure your rumor is true.. or will remain true if it is so now. I still see this as motivating the Iraqis to see it through (actually DO the law) and regulate the deal they just put through.. government likes to regulate things, and if something is happening.. it normally means they want their finger in the pie. This breaking news of Tsalagi's could be truly helpful and change the mind of those involved for the good so things get put through. It isn't like they haven't had enough time to study it.. do you need years .. or even months.. to make a decision? I don't think they do, either. They just need political will.. perhaps this could supply them with some motivation to get it done in a timely manner for the good of the country instead of squabbling (quarrelling in the article quote, above). THEY appear to think that the problem is the companies who wish to develop their oil.. the real problem is their inability to come to a political deal which will satisfy all parties so they can implement those deals to the satisfaction of everybody. Perhaps this is the PUSH they need to break that impasse.. we hope! :)

-- June 24, 2008 2:42 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Sara:

I hope you are right and this spurs the Iraqi's to finally pass the hydro carbon law. There is no question once it is passed the country and its people will become extremely prosperous.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 24, 2008 3:45 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq announces oil company and deals
24 June 2008
News services

Iraq said today the country will form a new oil company and has finished negotiations with international supermajors on six short-term oil service contracts worth about $500 million each.

Oil Minister Hussain Shahristani said a new state-owned oil company – the country’s fourth – will be created to develop and manage oil and gas reserves in the province of Maysan.

Shahristani said the Maysan Oil and Gas Commission would be split off from the Basra-based Southern Oil Company and reorganized as an independent company, the Associated Press reported.

Also today, the ministry said it will announce the deals it has made with oil supermajors on 30 June and hopes to sign the contracts next month.

However, a group of US lawmakers urged the Bush administration today to try to stop the Iraqi government from awarding the contracts.

The deals are aimed at lifting output at Iraq’s largest producing fields by a combined 500,000 barrels per day, Reuters said.

Also on 30 June, Shahristani will announce which producing fields would be open for long-term development contracts.

Shahristani has said Iraq plans to offer many of the same large producing fields in a bidding round for long-term development projects.

Baghdad has prequalified 41 firms to bid for those contracts.

“The oil ministry has not signed any contract with any company so far. We will announce on June 30 the first round of bids to develop the current oilfields,” Shahristani said about the long-term contracts.

“We will declare the number of fields that the companies will be competing for.

“The competition between the companies will be clear and transparent.”

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article157846.ece


===

Bush administration to leave Iraq oil deals alone
ANNE FLAHERTY AP
June 24, 2008

WASHINGTON — The United States Bush administration indicated Tuesday that it had no plans to interfere with negotiations between Iraq and several Western oil giants to boost crude production in that country, despite concerns by some Democrats that the deal could inflame anti-U.S. sentiments.

“Iraq is a sovereign country, and it can make decisions based on how it feels that it wants to move forward in its development of its oil resources,” said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino.

“And if that means that our companies here in the United States can compete and win business, then that's for them and the Iraqis to decide,” Ms. Perino added. “But I don't think the federal government of the United States needs to get involved.”

State Department spokesman Tom Casey said “Since the United States has had no involvement in this, I'm not sure on what basis the United States could...block the Iraqi government from contracting in the way it sees fit,” he said.

Likewise, Ms. Perino dismissed the senators' concerns as illogical.

“I'm curious as to why the Democrats seem to, on the one hand, want Iraq to take over more control of their own country, but on the other hand, want to continue to meddle in their business,” she told reporters.

The Iraq oil deals will likely be announced by the end of the month. The agreements, worth around $500-million (U.S.) each, are seen as a stopgap measure to begin ramping up oil production while Iraq's sectarian groups debate legislation that would divide the nation's oil revenues.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080624.wiraqoildeals0624/BNStory/Business/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080624.wiraqoildeals0624
http://news.findlaw.com/ap_stories/a/w/1151/06-24-2008/20080624103505_27.html

-- June 24, 2008 6:59 PM


Tsalagi wrote:


Sara...

This could explain the formation of a new oil company to deal with the Maysan area. I believe the Southern oil company has too much influence from Iran so the GOI (with urging from Royal Dutch Shell) decided to split out the best part and form the Maysan Oil Company. I'm inclined to believe this is good news for the Western oil companies. Also, good news for the Dinar.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shell makes inroads into Iraq

Over the last years, Royal Dutch Shell has also prepared itself internally for its penetration of Iraq. In 2004, the company established the post of Iraqi chairman. It is the most senior post of all the company’s overseas enterprises. Based in Dubai, this manager will head the oil and gas production for the company. The same year, the firm placed advertisements for an assistant to this chairman. This should be “a person of Iraqi descent,” with the “best contacts and insights into the network of significant families in Iraq,” explained the ad.

Since 2005, Shell has conducted technical studies into the Maysan oil field in southern Iraq and into the Kirkuk oil field in the north of the country. Shell has also got its sights set on the Rumaila oil field in the south, close to the Kuwaiti border.

As far as natural gas is concerned, Shell is pursuing an ambitious plan to become the leading company in the field of the production and sale of Iraqi gas. This year, in the city of Muscat in Oman, Shell presented a so-called gas master plan to former Iraqi oil minister Issam al-Chalabi, his deputy Abdul Jabbar al-Wakkaa and other high-ranking bureaucrats from the Iraqi oil industry. A further meeting then followed in the Netherlands. Today, al-Chalabi is an advisor to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Concrete steps to implement the gas master plan have already been taken. Together with Turkish enterprises, including Turkey’s state-run oil corporation, a pipeline is to be built taking Iraqi natural gas to the north and then via Turkish ports on to the European market. A meeting of Shell representatives with Turkish and American officials, together with the Turkish enterprises involved, has already taken place.

“We have done all our homework on Iraq,” according to Shell’s executive chairman Jeroen van der Veer in September of last year. “I’m not going to speculate on the time, but we are ready to move.”


-- June 24, 2008 8:04 PM


Carole wrote:

All,

I have just spent the worse 72 hours of my life.....i was bit by a black widow spider and immediately went into shock and excruciating pain. Thank God I WAS in the right place at the right time and the immediate medical attention I needed. However, 48 hours of excruciating pain, that I would equate to end stage bone cancer.

But ,my post here is not to focus on my event....I just want you all to know that if I offend anyone, it is because I am ill-composed due to my weakened .....BUT I MUST VENT!

THIS LATEST DEAL OVER THE IMUS COMMENT HAS ME ENRAGED/ Not by what he said, but by the reaction that the media is giving to it. Trying to analyyze his remarks!!!! Why? Why? Why? Is he not allowed to have an opinion, ignorant or otherwise? Is race opinions only for the minorities to express ignorant or otherwise.

Why, in God's name are we giving our boys and girls lives in Iraq or their freedoms when we have exceedingly diminishing freedoms or our own citizens?

If Imus or anyone else has decided to express discusst with a certain segment of our society that has overwhelming statistics of a crime infested culture so be it!!!

I have had it with the attention and legitimatizing of the thugs like Al Sharpen, in this country. We have given them way tooo much importance and leverage.

I am Italian, when someone commits a mob style crime, and someone alludes, they must be Italian....... they are probably right! That's the statistic! etc etc etc

Guys we've gone mad and blind to what is permeating our society.... we must stop all this now.......

If the politicians and the media doesn't stop promoting this crap, we are going to have another civil war! Cause no Black, brown, yellow, red or green human is going to take away my right "not" to like something or someone.......when hundreds of thousands of our countrymen have given their lives for me to have that privelege.

Now let me make the distinction, that I have the privelege not to like you if you are a different color than I am BUT, I don't have the right to harm you in anyway, because of my dislike for you, or deny you the same privelege i cherish for myself.

You don't have the right to have your analysis of why I feel the way I do, affect public policy or anything else...just accept it and get on with your own life....

So what if Imus doesn't like blacks????????? Is it mandatory that he must! I say BS!

Okay, Maybe I feel better now.......I'd feel alot better i Sharpen feel off a cliff and took Obama with him....as well as all card carrying members of the ACLU!

Carole

-- June 24, 2008 9:05 PM


Carole wrote:

Roger,

While I'm on one.....where the heck have you been? And where are you going anyway?
And why are you so down on the future o the Dinar????
Is this the same Roger that promoted selling your children to raise money to buy the Dinar....a year or so ago?? Que Paso?

BTW, it is the "LOVE" of money that is the root of all evil, aka greed, jealousy, lust etc...
Actually God endorses prosperity, wealth and beauty......just look at the magnificent aspects of nature.....can any human improve on the works of God?

Jesus himself states that He wishes all would prosper. I think he knows that to prosper is to work, plan and extend generosity which leads to true wealth.

Anyway, please respond to above questions.

Carole

-- June 25, 2008 12:29 AM


Roger wrote:

Sara,

Very interesting post of yours regarding money. Seems like we are pretty much on the same page on the basic principal of what it is, and what it does. Thanks for that long time you spent doing all that posting for us all, really interesting, and on the spot.

Carole,

Poison will always do a number....

-- June 25, 2008 12:36 AM


Sara wrote:

Roger - Thank you. :)
Still think you won't go..
and the Dinar will RV first.
God willing. :)

Carole - I will pray for your recouperation and protection.
How awful! And as for the racist stuff..
You illustrate what I said before.
People will become offended by the dialog..
and vote never to have this sorry lot foisted on them for FOUR straight years.
You wait and see..
you won't be the only one thinking that way.
They will offend more and more people.
Eventually the public will have had enough,
and they will take their opinions to the ballot box.
This racist thing is a factor that looks very likely to figure into things going that way.

Sara.

-- June 25, 2008 1:29 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

Sorry to hear about your mishap. Hope you are feeling better.

I agree with you about the media over reaction about Imus. Much ado about nothing. It brings out one reason I am not a liberal. I started out, as a young man, as a liberal, mainly because they seemed to have the best ideas about social justice, which I care about. But liberals went way off the rail, years ago. Liberals have turned into obsessive busybodies, always telling people what they should feel and think.

Personally,I don't mind people criticizing Imus's remarks, but that is not is what about anymore. Now, it's about restricting freedom of speech. I was a liberal when I was young, because they seemed to be for free expression and speech. Not any more. They just want to tell people who disagree with them to shut up, and that they don't have the right to speak, or have an opinion anymore. Disgusting.

As Winston Churchill once said, "If a man isn't liberal by the time he's 20, he has no heart. If he isn't a conservative by the time he's 40, he has no brain!"

-- June 25, 2008 2:27 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Terry853,

I'm still here. I agree with you, Iraqi oil will fuel the world's economy, for the next 30 years. That party is just getting started.

To all:

I'll have to say, for the record, I think Obama would be a bad choice for president, but I'm not as pessimistic as a lot of people on the board, regarding what would happen in Iraq, if he is president.

Obama is a ruthless opportunist. If he gets in power, he will react to whatever is best for Obama, politically. He has a persona about hope, and change, and inspiring people, with what he thinks are lofty ideals. And that works for him, for pumping up young people, who are young, and naive, and idealistic. Conservatives tend to think of Obama as naive, and overly idealistic, and I don't agree with that assessment. He is, definitely, inexperienced, but naive? I don't think so. Instead, I think he'd literally throw his grandmother under the bus, to get a few votes. So the whole, Obama the charismatic messiah, phony baloney persona, I've never really bought. In fact, I think he's a bit of a charming con man, and quite ruthless.

I think the other side of him people will see more and more, the more they see him operate. Remember, Reverend Wright was one of his best friends, for a couple of decades, was his mentor, his spiritual advisor, who married him. He sat their and listened to that psycho's sermons for a couple of decades. And then? When Reverend Wacko's beliefs started coming out, and the political head got to great, Obama disowned him. He threw his minister under the bus, based on pure ruthless political calculation. For Obama, friends are disposible, if they get in the way of his ruthless quest for power.

And political finance reform? It was the main political quest for Obama, his entire political career. While the Republicans had the financial advantage, in contests, Obama was all in favour of changing the rules, to level the field, sot that private money would not be as big a factor, in federal elections. What he wanted was for Republican and Democratic candidates would rely on public funding, to pay for their campaigns. That way, Republicans, who at the time were raising more money than the Democrats, they would lose their financial advantage. However, something happened to change Obama's beliefs. Suddenly, Obama raised a record amount of money, on the internet, far more than the Republicans. And then? Then he gave up the idea of campaign finance reform, because it would hurt him. If, at that point, he stuck to his principles, and stuck to public financing, then he's lose his financial advantage, over the Republicasn. Once he had the money, he realized, HE now had the advantage, and if he stuck to his principles, it would cost him, politically. So he threw his principles under the bus, where they joined Reverend Wright, who was trying to dodge the bus wheels....And Obama's rationalization was that, raising money on the internet was, in fact, "public financing", just like he wanted all along, so he had actually achieved his objective. Which is of course, pure B.S. But, like I said, Obama is ruthlessly opportunistics. Again, pure ruthless political calculation, throwing out long cherished principles, out the window, and under the wheels of the bus.

If the Republicans think this guy is dumb and naive, they really don't get, who this guy is. He's very smart, politically. I don't agree with much of his way of looking at the world, but he's a very smart opponent. The Republicans, with an unpopular war, and an unpopular President, are going to have a heck of a fight on their hands, beating this guy.

But will Obama really pull out from Iraq? I'm not convinced. I AM, however, convinced he's a born liar, and just because he says he will, doesn't amount to a pail full of dirt. He'd change his mind, in a moment, if there was some advantage in it, for him.

With oil, at a record high price, Americans are going to start looking around for answers. Why is this happening? Already, President Bush, in a very shrewd political move, is calling for more drilling for oil, offshore. Obama, to please his left leaning, green voters, naturally has to oppose such a move, because some people believe this drilling would pose enviromental risks. But the fact that the President said we need to drill for oil, off the coast, at the very time oil and gas are so high, signals to voters that the Republicans are trying to do something about it, and the Democratic reaction, opposing it, signals that the Democrats don't want to solve the problem.

Jay Leno made a joke about it tonight. He said, "Democrats are criticizing Republican plans for drilling for oil off the coast. They say it would not produce any short term relief for gas prices, because it would take 10 years to get the oil to market.........which is the same thing the Democrats said 10 years ago!"

All this, while the media has lately started talking about the fact that there isn't enough oil being produced. This gets people thinking. Where are we going to get all our oil, to run our economy?

Iraq, where else?

And is the economy suffers, from high oil prices, as it will, then voters will look for answers. Where are we going to get energy from in the future? In part, from Iraq. And Obama wants to leave? You gotta be kidding.

If Obama gets in, and there is some sort of continuing, large energy problem, in the States, as there is now, then tell me, is he going to leave the one place, to disintegrate, the one place that could keep the American economy supplied with oil, for the next 30 years? Not likely, if he wants to survive, politically.

Anyhow, if Obama gets in, events at the time will dictate what he does. Remember, he's not a man of principle. Instead, he's a ruthless opportunist. He'd throw is grandmother, under the bus, if it helped him. And right now, and for the coming decade, and during his first term in office, (assuming the worst happens, and he wins the election), there will be severe shortages of oil. The era of cheap energy is over, folks. Oil will only go up in price. In time, voters will see catch on to all this. They will demand that their president, whoever he is, MaCain or Obama, that the President secures oil energy supplies for America.

Even as weak, and foolish a president, as President Carter, publically stated that nothing must interfere with the supply of oil, flowing from the Persian Gulf to America. Carter knew that any disruption in the supply would be economic suicide, for the United States.

Obama may SAY, he'll leave Iraq. The man's a born liar. I'll believe it, when I see it.


-- June 25, 2008 3:42 AM


Carole wrote:

Thank you for kind words of "get well"

Sara,
I agree with you...people are starting to react. And will continue to do so. Hopefully, some of the naive followers of Obama will come aboard with blinders off.

Tim,

You truly hit the nail on the head! Obama, I believe has been "groomed" for this day. If he loses, he will go away, and never be heard from again, like Kerry, Mc Govern,etc.....

No matter if he loses or wins, his mere severely flawed character has taken the civil rights movement back 40 years.
There are so many African American qualified men and women, who love America and God and all people. I would have loved nothinhg better than to have voted for Alan Keyes, or Condi Rice or the many of color who share their same core values.

I do not share your regard for Jimmy Carter. Few people would not understand the economic impact of oil.......

In my mind, Carter is worst than the worse pres. we have ever had....he is a treasonous traitor!

I have closely watched Obama this last 24 hours.....he's doing a lot oF "WIGGLING". I think this will not go unnoticed and magnified.

I have also watched Mc Cain.... it seems like he is getting "fired-up".......needs to let that Irish temper flare! It will add confidence to those like myself who think "regamortis" is setting in!

Thanks for your posts...very provocative!

Carole

-- June 25, 2008 7:37 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

If this does not excite you nothing will. It may happen before Parliments summer recess. Again, we are in the position of waiting. I am encouraged today. Thoughts and comments.
__________________________________________________________

Al-Maliki and Barzani had agreed to end all differences on the law of oil and gas
Published 25.6.2008, 00:55


Uzmatik / Baghdad

A member of the House of Representatives deputy Iraqi Kurdistan Alliance List Mahmoud Othman on "the existence of the first agreement between the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve differences between the two parties on the law of oil and gas."

Othman explained in an interview with "Uzmatik" that "to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Prime Minister of Kurdistan province on Tuesday in Baghdad was positive for a solution to the disagreements on the law of oil and gas, where it was agreed to return the first draft of the law, approved by the Iraqi government in The month of February in 2007, as he put it. "

Uthman added that "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki held another meeting with Prime Minister Nnigervan Barzani's Kurdistan province, in the presence of Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Tariq Hashimi, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih and a number of representatives of political blocs over the next week to agree on a final draft of the law Oil and gas, which will be presented to the Iraqi Parliament for ratification. "

Othman stressed that "the Iraqi government had agreed with the Kurdistan Regional Government to convene a meeting of experts from Moscow parties, for the purpose of the amendments sought by the parties to the Law on oil and gas for the purpose of approving them."

Osman refused to give any details about the changes that will be made to the law until a final agreement between the parties.

The deputy said on the Kurdistan Alliance list that "there are serious directed by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to resolve all outstanding issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government, especially the implementation of article 140 of Iraqi constitution, and the issue PESHMARGA forces, and regulate the relationship between the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government.

The Vice-Chairman of the Committee on the oil and gas in the Iraqi Parliament deputy from the coalition list in an interview earlier ruled out for "Uzmatik" any progress between the political blocs on the Adoption Law of the oil and gas because of the refusal of the Kurdistan Regional Government to renege on contracts signed with international companies without the consent of Iraqi government In central Baghdad.

It is noteworthy that the Iraqi cabinet had unanimously endorsed the beginning of the month of February in 2007 to the Law on oil and gas, but the Kurdistan Alliance objected to the law after the state council amendments to some paragraphs, which I consider the Kurdistan Alliance unconstitutional.

http://translate.google.com/translate?prev=/language_tools&u=http://nahrain.com/tnews.php

-- June 25, 2008 9:44 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

UPDATE 1-S.Korea firms win Iraq oil, construction projects

A South Korean consortium will participate in oil projects with Iraq's Kurdish regional government to secure an estimated 1.9 billion barrels of oil, group leader Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) said on Wednesday.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 25, 2008 9:46 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Bush, Talabani to meet on Iraq security
Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:50pm EDT

(Reuters) - President George W. Bush will meet Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on Wednesday to discuss a long-term security pact for U.S. forces to stay in Iraq, among other issues, the White House said on Tuesday.

"The U.N. mandate expires at the end of this year, the Iraqis have told us they do not want to renew that mandate," said White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe. "Their preference is to set an agreement with the United States for future involvement in Iraq and so I'm sure they will discuss that." Talabani is traveling to Washington for the meeting.

The two countries have been negotiating a new security deal to provide a legal basis for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires on December 31, and a separate long-term agreement on political, economic and security ties.

Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki spoke last week via video conference call and the White House said that the two had agreed that the discussions for a pact were "proceeding well".

That call came after Maliki earlier this month had warned that the talks were deadlocked amid concerns about Iraqi sovereignty. The United States later backed down on one request seeking legal immunity for private contractors working in Iraq.

Johndroe said Bush and Talabani would also discuss the security situation in Iraq as well as political and economic matters.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.


-- June 25, 2008 9:50 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq must take its own decisions
By Amir Taheri

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25 June 2008 (Gulf News)
Print article Send to friend
It is more than five years that Saddam Hussain is gone, and his regime replaced by governments elected under the supervision of the United Nations. And, yet, Iraq remains subject to most of the harsh conditions imposed by the UN, under Chapter 7 of its charter, when Saddam invaded Kuwait 18 years ago.

This paradoxical situation is the fruit of a messy compromise under which the US-led coalition forces are allowed to remain in Iraq with UN approval. That approval, secured after the invasion and renewed on an annual basis, runs out at the end of the year. Unless it is renewed once more, which is far from certain, there would be no legal basis for the presence of US and allied troops in Iraq. This is why Baghdad and Washington have been negotiating a new deal under which the coalition forces would remain at the invitation of the Iraqi government.

The broad outline of an agreement was worked out at a meeting between the US President George W. Bush and the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki last November. Details, however, remain to be worked out through intense negotiations that are already four months behind schedule.

It is clear that the 145,000 American troops still in Iraq will not, indeed cannot, be withdrawn by the end of the year. Getting out is always harder than going in. The troop build-up for the war in 2003 took nine months to complete. To take the troops, and their heavy equipment, out could take twice as long, provided Iraq is peaceful and its government cooperative.

With the transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqis, the US and its allies ceased to be occupying powers, almost three years ago. Now they will lose their status under a UN mandate. So, what will the status of US troops be at the end of this year?

It is almost certain that Bush is not seeking a formal military alliance with Iraq. Such a proposition, though supported by some Iraqis, is opposed by significant segments of Iraqi opinion. It could divide the Iraqi political elite at a time when it needs cohesion and unity. In any case, a US Senate controlled by the Democrats is unlikely to ratify a military pact negotiated by Bush. Thus the claim made about Iraq being sucked into a network of military alliances, recalling the controversial Baghdad Pact of the 1950s, is misplaced.

In recent years, US defence thinking has moved away from formal long-term alliances and towards what is known as "the coalition of the willing", that is to say case-by-case arrangements with foreign nations in response to specific threats. Currently, the US has formal alliances with 26 countries, all members of Nato, and specific arrangements for military cooperation with over 120 others. In fact, of the 193 members of the United Nations, a staggering 131 either are formal allies or have some military agreement with the US.

One argument used by those who want the US to leave Iraq as fast as physically possible, thus leaving it exposed to the threat posed by its enemies, is that an American military presence would undermine Iraqi sovereignty. However, as already noted, two-thirds of the members of the United Nations host American military personnel, albeit in varying numbers.

The US maintains over 700 full bases and more than 3,000 other military facilities across the globe. The latter include hundreds of so-called "lily-pads", military facilities that could quickly be transformed into operational bases ready to use in case of war.

None of the countries where the US maintains bases or other military facilities, from United Kingdom to Japan, and passing by Germany and Turkey, feel that their sovereignty is undermined. The Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) hosted more than 500,000 US and allied troops for decades. Taiwan and South Korea regard an American presence as an insurance policy against dangerous neighbours.

Kosovo, the world's newest nation-state, is desperately trying to persuade the Americans to stay as guarantors of its hard-won independence. In any case, in recent years American strategic thinking has moved away from fixed bases in foreign countries. A programme of shutting down bases started in 2002, de-commissioning over 100 bases, mostly in Europe and Asia.

But will the Americans try to keep some bases in Iraq?

In 2004, the number of US bases of all shapes and sizes in Iraq reached almost 200. A year later, it had fallen to 105, as a programme of handing over to the new Iraqi army got under way. Since then, a further 28 bases have been transferred to Iraqi control, along with 10 of Saddam Hussain's 22 palace compounds.

As things stand, it seems the US is planning to reduce the number of its bases even further, possibly ending up with just four in 2010. The largest is the multipurpose Camp Victory near Baghdad Airport, built with the latest design and equipped with ultra-modern material. In a sense, the three other bases, at Talil, south of Baghdad, Al Assad in the Anbar province, and Qayyara near Erbil in the northeast, are complementary to Camp Victory. US troops will also be used to protect the 12 booster stations of the sophisticated Central Iraq Microwave Communication System for some time.

Military presence

It is up to Iraq's elected leaders to decide whether they still need an American military presence as an insurance policy. If they sincerely think so, they should say so openly and forcefully. The Iraqi people should be fully informed of the contents and the form of the negotiations under way. They should also be reminded that the US has never tried to impose its military presence on unwilling hosts.

In 1966, General Charles De Gaulle asked the Americans to close their bases in France and leave. The US did so with top speed, although withdrawing tens of thousands personnel involved complex logistical issues. In 1969, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi demanded the closure of one of the United States' largest bases in the Mediterranean region, the Wheelus. Again, the Americans complied, despite the fact that Libya intended to transfer the base to Soviets. Since then, the Philippines (1999), Saudi Arabia (2002) and Uzbekistan (2006) have demanded that the US close military facilities and withdraw its personnel. In every case, the US has complied.

The idea that the US could impose permanent bases against the will of the Iraqi people is fanciful, to say the least. In every case, bases used by the US are leased for fixed periods, renewable with mutual agreement.

What Iraq needs to worry about is not bases that, in any case, cannot be temporary. Far more important is the role that the US intends to play in Iraqi politics.

So far, the US has acted as a full partner in virtually all major decisions taken by Iraq's new leadership. It has also acted as an arbiter among various Iraqi communities and political factions. The US cannot, and should not, continue to play those roles beyond the next Iraqi general election. New Iraq must take its own decisions and develop its own mechanisms for resolving communitarian and political conflicts.

In the meantime, Iraq must decide whether it wishes to remain under Chapter 7, and nurse its illusion of sovereignty, or to arrange for hosting the coalition at least until after the next general election in 2009.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 25, 2008 9:55 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

This does not surprise me. Iraq and its officials move at a snails pace. Hopefulle the provinical elections will be held in October, but I am not holding my breath.
__________________________________________________________

Iraq's provincial elections could be delayed: MPs
Iraq's provincial elections could be delayed because of disputes in parliament over the electoral law.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25 June 2008 (Reuters)
Print article Send to friend
Iraq's provincial elections, seen as vital for fostering national reconciliation, could be delayed because of disputes in parliament over the electoral law, several lawmakers said on Sunday.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has said the elections will be held on Oct 1, but a dispute has emerged between Arab and Kurdish lawmakers over what to do about voting in the disputed oil rich city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

"There are many problems hindering us from agreeing the provincial elections law. One of the main problems is Kirkuk," Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, head of the parliamentary bloc from the ruling Shi'ite Alliance, told Reuters.

"I think it will be very difficult to hold elections on time."

The electoral commission has said the draft law must be passed by the start of July to give it three months to prepare for the polls. U.S. officials have said the elections could be delayed until November, but have not elaborated.

The fate of Kirkuk, a mixed city of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen that sits atop rich oil fields, is already one of the most divisive issues in Iraq.

Minority Kurds,www.ekurd.net who control the northern Kurdistan region, see Kirkuk as their ancient capital and want a constitutionally mandated referendum to be held to decide its status. Arabs encouraged to move there under Saddam Hussein want the city to stay under Baghdad and have been wary of a vote.

Given Kirkuk's status had not been resolved, Arab and Turkmen lawmakers said they wanted a separate law to govern voting in the city. Kurd lawmakers have rejected this proposal.

"We completely reject the suggestion of drawing up a special law for Kirkuk. We call for elections in the whole of Iraq on the same day," said Mehsin al-Sa'doon, a senior Kurd lawmaker.

He said Kurds were prepared to reach a political consensus on dividing up control of the city once elections had been held.

SEPARATE LAW

Sagheer said Arab and Turkmen supported establishing a separate law for elections in Kirkuk.

"We have our point of view regarding the demographic changes in Kirkuk since 2003," he said.

Arabs believe Kurds have stacked the city with Kurds since the downfall of Saddam in 2003 in an attempt to tip the demographic balance in their favor in any vote.

Given the impasse, lawmakers said on Sunday that parliament had agreed to delay its summer recess until early August, when it would take two months off. Parliament had been due to break for vacation from the beginning of July.

Deputy parliament speaker Khalid al-Attiya suggested a committee that comprised Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen lawmakers meet continuously for a week to find a solution.

Washington says the elections will promote reconciliation by boosting the participation of minority Sunni Arabs in politics. Sunni Arabs boycotted the last local polls in January 2005.

Analysts say the elections will also be the battleground for a fierce power struggle among majority Shi'ites.

Usama al-Nujaifi, a Sunni Arab lawmaker from the Iraqi National list, said the Kurdish demands could delay reaching a solution.

"I don't believe this problem will be solved soon," he said.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 25, 2008 9:58 AM


tim bitts wrote:

The first rule of war: Know thy enemy:

My guess on who the Democrats will pick, to run in the election, as vice-presidential candidate: Joe Biden.

He has a moderate image, which counters some of Obama's left-leaning tendencies. He's a very long standing member of the Senate. He has worked on a lot of legislation, over the years, and can get along with Republicans.

He's the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and has sat on that committee under every American President, Republican or Democrat, since President Nixon. Biden has been involved in the conflict, involving warring ethnic factions, in the Balkans. He was the guy who encouraged Bill Clinton to use high level air bombing to help end that conflict. He has been in favour of federalizing Iraq, which means dividing up power, in Iraq, so that the regions, like Kurdistan, have more power, and the central Iraqi government, has less. (The Sunnis, as the new permanent, powerless minority, wouldn't be too happy about that.) Biden has also talked about the possible need to partition Iraq. I think Obama may pick Biden as vp nominee, because I don't think Obama would be interested in running a war. He'll pick someone with foreign policy experience, which is Obama's weakness.

Biden's biggest concern, politically, for several decades, has been energy security and supply. He knows perfectly well what is at stake in Iraq, and how big a mess America is in, over the energy crisis.

The one thing, about Biden, is he has a mouth. He says stupid things, from time to time. That could get him in trouble.

Whoever Obama picks as vp, would be a tough choice, since most top-level Democrats, including Biden, voted for the war, and subsequent funding. As a candidate running as a supposed anti-war candidate, where is Obama going to get a candidate, who voted like he did, on the war? You got me.

I don't think Obama would pick Hillary. I don't think America would stand the both of them on a ticket together. I also don't think Obama wants Bill Clinton poking around the White House, looking over his shoulder, for the next four years. If Obama does the dumb thing, and picks Hillary, expect him to lose very big in November.

-- June 25, 2008 12:03 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Rob N: very interesting post on Iraq making their own decisions, especially on military bases, and the political role of the U.S. in Iraqi politics, in the future. I didn't know about the history of the bases in France, and withdrawal of forces from several bases around the world. Makes sense to me. I used to think America would have to impose their will on the Iraqis, and stay on bases for the long term, without the consent of the Iraqis. That would have been foolish. I changed my mind on that. It has to be done by mutual consent. Thanks.

-- June 25, 2008 12:14 PM


Tsalagi wrote:


This caught my eye. I believe it's due to the fact that Russa and China are political whores and have spent too much time in bed with Iran. France made it back in because they got back on the right side of the fence with their Western Allies.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What is interesting about Baghdad’s opening up to foreign firms is the lack of Russian and Chinese companies, as six months before the U.S.-led invasion, Saddam had reportedly signed several multi-billion dollar deals with foreign oil companies mainly from China, France, and Russia.
>
>
>
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373177

-- June 25, 2008 2:11 PM


Sara wrote:

Timbitts.. you are right when you said of Obama, "Remember, he's not a man of principle. Instead, he's a ruthless opportunist. He'd throw is grandmother, under the bus, if it helped him."

That is exactly what happened with his political reform, which he threw under the bus as you said here:

And political finance reform? It was the main political quest for Obama, his entire political career. While the Republicans had the financial advantage, in contests, Obama was all in favour of changing the rules, to level the field, so that private money would not be as big a factor, in federal elections. What he wanted was for Republican and Democratic candidates would rely on public funding, to pay for their campaigns. That way, Republicans, who at the time were raising more money than the Democrats, they would lose their financial advantage. However, something happened to change Obama's beliefs. Suddenly, Obama raised a record amount of money, on the internet, far more than the Republicans. And then? Then he gave up the idea of campaign finance reform, because it would hurt him. If, at that point, he stuck to his principles, and stuck to public financing, then he'd lose his financial advantage, over the Republicans. Once he had the money, he realized, HE now had the advantage, and if he stuck to his principles, it would cost him, politically. So he threw his principles under the bus, where they joined Reverend Wright, who was trying to dodge the bus wheels....And Obama's rationalization was that, raising money on the internet was, in fact, "public financing", just like he wanted all along, so he had actually achieved his objective. Which is of course, pure B.S. But, like I said, Obama is ruthlessly opportunistic. Again, pure ruthless political calculation, throwing out long cherished principles, out the window, and under the wheels of the bus.

I liked this youtube video which illustrates summarily what you said just about Obama betraying his principles about political finance reform (worth watching):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mQ_eCGbdg0

-- June 25, 2008 2:32 PM


Sara wrote:

Iraq, U.S. making progress on security pact: Talabani
Reuters
Wednesday, June 25, 2008; 1:06 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iraq and the United States are making progress in completing a security pact for U.S. forces to stay in the country after 2008, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Wednesday after meeting U.S. President George W. Bush.

"I think we have very good, important steps toward reaching ... this agreement," Talabani told reporters after the meeting at the White House. "And we continue our struggle to, our efforts to reach ... very soon this agreement."

The two countries have been negotiating a new security deal to provide a legal basis for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires on December 31, and a separate long-term agreement on political, economic and security ties.

Talabani also said he believed the Iraqi parliament could approve this year two key new laws, one on oil and another on elections. Iraq's leaders have been debating legislation on revenue sharing and the national oil company.

"I think I can say that we can pass this year two important laws of oil and election," he said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/25/AR2008062501294.html

-- June 25, 2008 5:46 PM


Sara wrote:

Poll: McCain Would Do Better Job in Iraq Than Obama
by FOXNews.com
Wednesday, June 25, 2008

WASHINGTON — A new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll gives John McCain a 39-33 advantage over Barack Obama among respondents choosing which candidate would do a better job in Iraq.

McCain, who supported a surge in troops and says he would keep U.S. forces in Iraq as long as the situation were stable, was seen as a better leader for the military than Obama. One out of three respondents said that image fits McCain “very well,” whereas only one out of 10 said the same of Obama, who did not serve in the armed forces.

In the poll, more than one out of five of the respondents who said they opposed the war also said they support McCain for president. The sentiment does not discriminate by gender or by age. Most significantly, it splits independent voters in favor of McCain.

The Iraq findings track McCain’s advantage on the issue of terrorism. Of those surveyed, more than twice as many believe McCain can handle terrorism better than Obama.

The public’s views about Iraq are especially notable because many voters appear to separate McCain’s past record of support for the war from their perception of his performance as a military leader. What’s more, it points to a potential Obama vulnerability.

Only 6 percent of those who say they will vote for Obama say McCain would do a better job on Iraq. But among “weak” Obama supporters, that figure rises to 15 percent. Moreover, among undecided voters, McCain is preferred 25 percent to 15 percent over Obama on Iraq.

Leeann Ormsbee, a registered Democrat from Waterford, Pa., believes the United States rushed to war, but now does not believe troops should simply withdraw. The 29-year-old self-employed house cleaner says she has never voted for a Republican. She might this time.

“I do believe that he will do better in Iraq,” she said of McCain. “Because he’s served in the military and he has said we can’t just pull out. … I think we’re just kind of stuck with it now and we have to finish.”

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse calls these voters “nose-holders.”

“They don’t like the fact that we’re over there, they don’t think the decision was the right one, but they understand that if we simply withdraw our troops it would leave things worse off,” he said.

McCain has said he could envision troops withdrawing around 2013 but has refused to fix a date. “We were losing in Iraq; now we’re winning,” he said.

The troop expansion, which is about to end, has left Iraq safer and given Iraqi forces greater responsibility for security. But Pentagon and congressional reports this week urged caution that the gains are delicate and could be reversed.

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg said the evidence of improvements this year presents a double-edged sword for McCain and Obama.

“Obviously, people don’t like the war in Iraq; they want it to be over and they don’t like all the money we’re spending there,” she said. “On the other hand, people also don’t want to retreat or lose. … In 2006, (the public’s view of the war) was much more clearly a net positive for Democrats. I think the landscape has changed.”

At the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which has also polled on Iraq and the presidential candidates, associate director Michael Dimock said the public has a perception that McCain “is not completely on board with Bush.”

What’s more, he said, Obama faces lingering concerns about his experience, about not being tested and about not having foreign policy experience — themes Hillary Rodham Clinton pushed during their prolonged primary contest.

“What you see is that Americans themselves are conflicted about Iraq,” he added. “They are very hesitant to say that we need to get out now. They understand the complexity of this situation.”

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/25/poll-mccain-would-do-better-job-in-iraq-than-obama/

-- June 25, 2008 5:52 PM


Sara wrote:

Al-Qaida Leader Killed in Mosul, Dozens Detained
By American Forces Press Service
MichNews.com
Jun 25, 2008

WASHINGTON - Coalition forces killed a senior al-Qaida in Iraq leader and three other attackers and detained a dozen suspects in operations today.
Coalition forces killed the al-Qaida in Iraq "emir" of Mosul and three other attackers. During the engagement, one man was killed while attempting to detonate a suicide vest he was wearing, and another attacker, a woman, was killed as she tried to detonate the same vest on the dead man.

Southwest of Mosul, coalition forces detained two terrorism suspects, and two others were captured in Tikrit, north of Baghdad. In Baghdad, forces detained five terrorism suspects while targeting a senior terrorist leader in the area.

In other operations today, coalition forces captured four suspects in a raid targeting a suspected Iranian-trained "special groups" commander in Baghdad's Karadah district. The targeted suspect reportedly has managed several attacks against coalition bases.

In operations yesterday:

-- Iraqi National Police and U.S. soldiers seized weapons caches in the New Baghdad district. Forces seized 25 AK-47 assault rifles, a rocket-propelled-grenade launcher, 120 mm mortar round, 104 mm artillery round, two 155 mm artillery rounds, four 82 mm mortar rounds, and about 500 rounds of ammunition.

-- In Mosul, coalition forces captured an alleged senior advisor to an illegal terrorist court system. Two others were detained during the operation.

-- Soldiers in the Karadah security district of eastern Baghdad captured a suspect wanted for bombing attacks, kidnappings and murders.

-- Coalition forces captured a wanted man and another suspect in Baghdad. The wanted man is believed to have aided in planning attacks and kidnappings.

-- In Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad, forces caught one suspect.

In operations June 22 near Balad, forces detained a wanted man and another suspect. Another suspect was killed. The wanted man is believed to lead a terrorist cell responsible for murdering Iraqi citizens, placing roadside bombs and attacking coalition forces.

(Compiled from Multinational Force Iraq and Multinational Corps Iraq news releases.)

http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_20560.shtml

-- June 25, 2008 6:51 PM


Sara wrote:

Coalition, Afghan Forces Kill Scores of Militants, Capture Several Others
By American Forces Press Service
MichNews.com
Jun 25, 2008

WASHINGTON - Coalition troops and Afghan security forces killed scores of militants and captured more than a dozen others during operations across Afghanistan over the past several days, military officials said.

Several militants were killed, and 11 were detained during three separate coalition operations conducted in Helmand and Ghazni provinces yesterday.

-- Coalition forces searched compounds in the Reeq district of Helmand province, targeting a militant leader known to facilitate foreign-fighter operations and weapons smuggling. Coalition forces identified a group of armed militants maneuvering against the force and responded with small-arms fire. In another area, a militant fired at coalition forces from a building. Several militants were killed and detained in the engagements. Coalition forces discovered AK-47 rifles, ammunition and ammunition vests. The weapons and ammunition were destroyed.

-- Coalition forces detained two suspected militants during a separate operation in the Andar district of Ghazni province.

-- Afghan and coalition forces killed several militants during operations in the Sangain district of Helmand province. Afghan troops on security patrol spotted a three-man mortar team near a village. The enemy attacked the Afghan patrol with small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades. After a firefight, the militants fled to a nearby residence and used it as a fighting position. Afghan and coalition forces waited until all women and children had left the area before calling in an air strike that killed the militants. Two fortified enemy positions were destroyed.

In other news, coalition troops patrolling the Zerok district of Paktika province pounded a group of anti-Afghan government militants June 20. About 55 militants were killed, 25 were wounded, and three were detained as the result of coalition ground and aerial attacks, officials said. The battle occurred along the main road between Zerok and Orgun districts. The coalition attack was in response to a recent ambush by the enemy in the area. Coalition patrols continue to report additional enemy casualties, including the deaths of three key militant leaders.

(Compiled from Combined Joint Task Force 101 news releases.)

http://www.michnews.com/artman/publish/article_20547.shtml

-- June 25, 2008 7:01 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

President Carter is a traitor, you say? Hezbollah disagrees with you. They think he's an American hero! lol

In other news, Bill Clinton continues to be upset that Hillary didn't win. Apparantly, she'll be around the house more, and it'll interfere with Bill's dating life!

Sara,
thanks for the video.

-- June 25, 2008 11:34 PM


Sara wrote:

You are welcome for the video, tim. :)

Oh, WOW.. Gallup actually got it.
I mean.. they thought it worthwhile to check ONLY those who would vote.
THAT is really a brainstorm, don't you think?

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

===

Gallup: All tied at 45
June 25, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

Gallup’s daily presidential tracking poll has had Barack Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat for the last two weeks. Now it has them in an actual dead heat. The difference appears to be rising support for McCain, although the changes are quite narrow:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

Voter preferences had been fairly evenly divided for the past week, with Obama generally holding a slight advantage of two or three percentage points. This is the first time since Gallup’s May 31-June 4 rolling average that Obama does not have at least a slim advantage over McCain. Obama’s largest lead to date has been seven points.

==end quote==

Even better news: the sample is significantly larger than any used by the news media in recent polling (2600 respondents). It also uses registered voters, which normally would favor Democrats.

Yesterday, Stacy McCain (no relation) explained the polling vagaries:

Given the fact that huge numbers of eligible voters don’t vote, a pollster — if his poll results are to be useful or credible — must try to screen for “likely voters.” This is a doggone difficult thing to do, but it must be attempted, because voters and non-voters differ significantly in their preferences. Non-voters are more likely to support liberal policies and Democratic candidates (a source of endless frustration to liberal Democrats). So a poll that doesn’t properly screen for “likely voters” will always skew leftward (as was true of the Newsweek poll that surveyed “registered voters” rather than “likely voters”).

This is probably why early polls have historically overstated support for Democratic presidential candidates. The closer you get to Election Day, the easier it becomes to determine who the “likely voters” are. Thus, the samples in early polls contain lots of liberal-leaning eligible voters who, in the end, won’t actually bother to vote.

==end quote==

This is why sampling is so important in these polls, and why Newsweek, the LA Times, and CBS traditionally provide outliers rather than predictive results.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/25/gallup-all-tied-at-45/

-- June 25, 2008 11:50 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Last week someone posted a u tube video, reviewing some more of Obama's past experiences and associations. I can't seem to find it now, but it noted that he was not only a student of, but at one point an instructor of a Marxist type philosophy, whereby, there had been a realization that the original Marxist regime to take over nation after nation ( prime target.US) needed a change in strategy. Part of that strategy was to infiltrate our government....and if at all possible, the White House.

Obama is the front man for that movement. It will take a landslide electorate against him, I am now convinced to destroy that movement.

I am anything but a Mc Cain admirer, unless he sees the burden that has been put upon him to save our nation....and puts his crap politics behind him and give mainstream Americans the message that Obama will destroy this nation and in doing so put the entire world at risk.

Think he can or will do it? (Mc Cain)

We Americans need to talk this Obama guy down on every front. His every word needs to be exploited and challenged, his race will then become a mere side issue, even though he continually places the race card...card.

As Far as Obama choosing Hilary as running mate.....who knows? They are both socio-pathic opportunists!

Micro biologically speaking, only one opportunist to one HOST! If he chooses her, I foresee, eventually the demise of the Democratic Party.

Probably one of the last hopeful thoughts for the future of this world!

Carole

-- June 26, 2008 12:05 AM


Roger wrote:

Tsalagi,

You're right on track.

However there is more to it than that, there is a bigger picture and a bigger strategy being implemented right now.

Two new energy hubs are being constructed right now, with Iraq as the originator of oil.

Turkey, and India.

Turkey will be the entrance to Europe, something that the Turks are eager to do as they have seeked membership in the European Union for quite some time, but have failed so far on human right issues. This will get Turkey a lot more leverage, from the stand point of Turkey. Russian oil have been flooding the European union lately. Russia is very unstable, and have blown a lot of deals, and have no second thoughts of just shutting down a supply line for any reason they see fit, as they have done in the past with the Republic of Georgia.

The Turkey supply to Europe with Iraqi oil will act as a very effective counter balance for the EU market.

India are constructing some very big refineries right now, all with the Iraqi oil in mind, India will be the Asian Hub, and a counter balance to China. India and China, to emerging markets, where the Chinese have cheated with their currency to a point where it has harmed the global economy, and India, having its problems, still, it is a full fledged democracy.

Iran is being circumvented, but in case of a fall of the current regime, can be incorporated in the hub system.

There is a lot more to it.

You may have wondered why there was no international outcry when the Turks went in into Iraq and gave the Kurdish guerrilla a massage.

As you may remember, just the days ahead, all the big wigs was in Ankara, the Iraqi PM, Condoleeza Rice, and the Kurdish leadership.

The Turks went in with the blessing of them all ( the Kurdish Govt.,reluctantly, but they are nowadays bowing pretty nice to the Iraqi Federal Govt)

You should go back in the archives, I do believe around the turn of the last year or the beginning of this year, and find an article here on T&B, written by an Indian diplomat that describes all this very well. It may be a little bit of digging, and researching, but it is well worth to find that particular article.

It will explain why Turkey and Israel is cozying up, why Israel could use Turkish airspace and use Turkish military air shooting grounds in their target practice, in their recently disclosed big air maneuver that can only fit a possible air strike on Iran.

If I don't miss remember, the posting was done by "anonymous" I do believe, anyhow, try to find that article, and you will get a very good picture of where this thing is heading, it is a view that describes Iraq in a completely different light other than the usual aspects that is tossed around daily.

The article describes in an elegant way the basic intentions of where it is heading, and why. Once you have read it, a lot of pieces of a big complex puzzle will start to come together, and it will give you a very good insight of why things are the way they are.

The Iraq war, and all its sub issues (Read Iraqi Dinar) are all only part of the puzzle.

Good luck to you,
Roger

-- June 26, 2008 12:11 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

I have read before, that Obama took some courses from Marxist instructors.

I also, was heavily influenced by Marx: Groucho, that is.

I'm sure Obama was influenced by Marxist teaching. I'm sure he realizes Marxist ideas don't work, but I expect, if he makes President, to heavily favour a strong federal government.

I hope McCain can beat this guy. I think he can. I don't want America to turn into an Obama-nation!

Yes, you are right. Obama does play the Race Card. It's time for America to realize, that the Race Card, has become a Joker! And Jokers aren't allowed in most card games!

I don't think Obama will pick Hillary, despite all the money that Bill is offering Obama to take Hillary, off his hands.

-- June 26, 2008 2:22 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Flurry of oil deals with foreign firms continues

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

26 June 2008 (Azzaman)
Print article Send to friend
Both the central government in Baghdad and the regional Kurdish government in Arbil are vying to lure oil majors to sign deals to develop Iraqi oil fields.

But the rush, analysts say, is full with risks in the absence of laws and regulations on the division of royalties and nature of the deals.

The Kurdish government announced Tuesday the signing of yet two other contracts, one with the Canadian Talisman Energy Corporation and the other with Western Zagros for the development of two oil fields in the disputed Province of Kirkuk.

The Oil Ministry has recently given 35 foreign oil firms the permission to boost currently producing fields and develop new ones.

With the two deals with Talisman and Western Zagros, the Kurds will now have 17 such deals with foreign firms.

But the Kurdish deals are in the eyes of the central government illegal as they are being signed prior to the passage of a controversial gas and oil draft law still being debated in the parliament.

The Kurds retort that the central government itself has signed such deals while the oil law remains on parliamentary shelves.

But the danger of the Kurdish deals emanates from the fact that some concessions to foreign firms fall in areas outside their traditional autonomous enclave of the provinces of Arbil, Dahouk and Sulaimaniya.

Some of the deals are in territory administratively part of the Province of Nineveh and others tackle oil fields situated in the disputed oil rich Province of Kirkuk.

The Kurdish deals have sparked the anger and indignation of other ethnic groups in the two provinces and analysts believe they could be the catalyst for a new round of violence in these two provinces.

Anti-U.S. and anti-government groups have vowed to attack foreign firms and Kurdish government officials working outside the enclave.

Moreover, the deals whether by the Kurds or the central government lack the necessary transparency. The applications are picked by officials regardless of whether there might have been better bidders.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 26, 2008 8:49 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

I found what I referred to earlier. Sara has done a magnificent job at finding detail of Obama's anti-American, subversive affiliations and endeavors.

I hope you go back and review these:

June 5, WWW. Mich.news

June 8, utube

June 9, Alinsky Method

Carole

-- June 26, 2008 9:03 AM


Carole wrote:

Roger,

Well....thank you so much for post on the emerging oil hubs. I can't find the post u referred to( need to look harder), but I do remember it.

I remember thinking that the sense that I always seem to get deep in my gut.....relative to "conspiracy theories" was ignited by the article.

Probably not a conspiracy, but rather a well plotted plan to organize and restructure the "Oil Lords" of the world.

I wonder if it will come to pass?

Carole

-- June 26, 2008 9:10 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

All this talk of emerging oil hubs, what does it mean for us? Opportunity. I have some stock, in a Canadian company that has found oil in Kurdistan. India is also looking for oil there. (Reliance Energy I think). Turkey will be a big player, because they are the gateway to Europe. So their Turkish National Petroleum Company, will do well.

And who will build the pipelines and refineries to bring oil to Europe?

Roger, yes Chinese currency is undervalued. But this too, means opportunity. It's cheaper to buy Chinese stocks.

Carole,

Thanks for that. Yes, Sara has done a great job, on collecting info on Obama. I'm sure it will all come out in the election. One thing I haven't heard people talk about much, is that, in this election, all the pressure is on the Democrats, to win, and win big. Think about it: The sitting Republican President is at an all time low, in opinion polls. The country is engaged in an upopular war. The economy seems to be in trouble. If the Democrats can't win now, then when can they win?

Democrats always talk about their glory days, under a Clinton Presidency. They sound like a Bruce Springsteen song...... Glory days, pass you by.....But if I recall correctly, it was Ross Perot who elected Bill Clinton. Clinton never won a majority of votes, did he? As I recall, people who voted for Perot would have mostly voted Republican, if Perot hadn't been in the race twice. Which would have meant not Clinton Presidency.

And if the Republicans would have won those two contests, there would have been no Clinton Presidency, no moral disgraces, no blue dresses. And without Perot electing Clinton, when was the last real Democratic win? Jimmy Carter? And he only lasted one term.

So, thinking Democrats have a lot of reasons to be very worried, in my opinion. They haven't won a legitamate contest, for the White House, since bell bottoms were in vogue, The Bee Gees were at their peak, I wore platform shoes and my hair looked like Garth, from Wayne's World, and disco balls and horrid disco music annoyed an entire generation.

That's a very lonnnnnnnng time.

So, in light of the circumstances, if Sara is right, and the contest is tied, at this point, the Democrats must be mighty worried. Under the circumstances, they should be 15 points ahead of the Republicans. The Republicans should take heart, from all that.

And if the Democrats DON'T win? Expect them to be severely deflated, like a balloon that just had a six year old and a needle walk by. They are in danger of becoming the Boston Red Sox of politics. Remember them? They went over 80 years, between winning baseball's championship.

And, if Obama doesn't win, he can always go back to his church, and make friends again, with his racist pastor......

-- June 26, 2008 11:45 AM


Sara wrote:

The first agreement between the government and the Kurdistan province on the law of oil and gas
Iraqi national - Luna / Thursday, June 26

Baghdad - member Mahmoud Othman told the House of Representatives deputy Iraqi Kurdistan Alliance List of the existence of the first agreement between the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve differences between the two parties on the law of oil and gas.

He explained Osman told reporters that the meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Prime Minister of Kurdistan province on Tuesday in Baghdad was positive for a solution to differences on the law of oil and gas production, it was agreed to return the first draft of the law, approved by the Iraqi government in February 2007

He said that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki held another meeting with the Prime Minister of Kurdistan province Nnigervan Barzani presence of Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Tariq Hashimi, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih and a number of representatives of political blocs over the next week to agree on a final draft of the law of oil and gas, which will be presented Iraqi Parliament for ratification .. pointing out that the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to convene a meeting of experts from Moscow parties for the purpose of the amendments sought by the parties to the Law on oil and gas for the purpose of validation.

He added that there is a serious trend by Iraqi Prime Minister to resolve all outstanding issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government, especially the implementation of article 140 of Iraqi constitution and the issue of troops Albeshmrjh and regulate the relationship between the Iraqi government and Kurdistan Regional Government.

It is noteworthy that the Iraqi cabinet had unanimously endorsed the beginning of the month of February 2007 on the Law of the oil and gas but the Kurdistan Alliance objected to the law after the state council amendments to some of its paragraphs, which was deemed unconstitutional Kurdistan Alliance. / / End / Ra / u p / Parties

http://www.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wna-news.com%2Finanews%2Fnews.php?hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=ar&tl=en

QUOTE: It is noteworthy that the Iraqi cabinet had unanimously endorsed... the Law of the oil and gas but the Kurdistan Alliance objected...

I take this to mean.. that the Iraqi cabinet HAD endorsed this already!
The ONLY holdup was the Kurds.. and they are now on side.
So that this will BYPASS a long and drawn out debate cycle.
The KURDS say yes.. it is a DONE DEAL.. by the end of the month.. NO??
I do sincerely hope so! :)

Sara.

-- June 26, 2008 12:03 PM


Sara wrote:

I figure that Someone sat around writing for the Supreme Court what just happened in the news.
Someone figured that Americans have a ten minute ADD attention span and so the plan went like this:

First.. give terrorists the rights of US citizens.
Supreme Ct Gives Terrorists Right To Appeal - http://sweetness-light.com/archive/supreme-court-gives-detainees-right-to-appeal
Then vote against the rights of child rape victims.
SCOTUS: Death Penalty Only For Murders - US Supreme Court rejects executions for child rape -
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/scotus-fatwa-death-penalty-only-for-murder
Finally, pass a law graciously "allowing" the second amendment of the Constitution (aren't we NICE) concering handguns.
Then, the public will be so deliriously happy with affirming what is, after all, the Constitutional right (to bear arms) in the LAST decision.. that the American people won't even notice the incredibly FAR LEFT agenda which just got passed into law with the two others. Great plan, hey?

Oh, and play it up in the media.. and don't forget to give Obama.. that person who dispises those who "cling to God and GUNS" - give him lots of room to backtrack and flip-flop and say he was for this all along.. yeah, right..
SEE THIS:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifEg1aq6Emo

And please note Obama's support of the filibuster for Roberts and Alito.. he would never have confirmed those two Bush appointed Supreme Court justices on the court who ruled in favor of this supposed "victory" for second amendment rights - which split 5-4 in an incredibly narrow decision (see below).
They figure we all have ADD and will be pacified like babies with this "soother" on what really SHOULD be a non-issue.
So we don't notice what they are REALLY doing.. and so maybe might appoint Obama.. who would appoint those to the Supreme Court who would OVERTURN this decision in a blink of an eye if he were to get in (God FORBID!!).
Are Americans really that stupid, gullible and easily led.. to throw the ballgame for today's tainted cotton candy which they would be throwing up if they were to let down their guard and allow Obama to get in and appoint those who would reverse this decision he now says (in a gigantic flip-flop) that he supports?
Crazy.. hope America won't be buying it.

ABC's Tapper Notes Obama Shuffle on Gun Rights
By Ken Shepherd
June 26, 2008

It should prove interesting to see how many other reporters pick up on this.

Barack Obama is scooting to the right on gun rights, notes ABC's Jake Tapper, in a June 26 blog post at his Political Punch blog.

The ABC correspondent picked up on an exchange between the Illinois senator and a reporter from Pennsylvania, the land of bitter gun-clingers:

Craig Layne, a reporter from WJET-TV in Erie, Penn., today asked Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, a question on the DC gun ban.

Here's how the exchange went down.

"In November you mentioned that the DC handgun law was constitutional," Layne said. "Now you're embracing the Supreme Court's 5-4 decision striking down that law-

"That's not what I said," Obama interrupted, per ABC News' Jennifer Duck.

"Your aide said that," Layne clarified.

"I don't know what my aide said but I've been very consistent, I teach constitutional law," Obama said. What I said was that I believe 2nd Amendment as being an individual right and have said that consistently. I also think that individual right is constrained by the rights of the community to maintain issues with public safety. I don't think those two principles are contradictory and in fact what I've been saying consistently is what the Supreme Court essentially said today."

Comments:

1) The Two Faces Of Barak Hussein Obama! by Chasvs

This SOB is so two-faced it's unbelievable!

There isn't any issue that he isn't on both sides of depending on the moment!

We need to shut this Half-wit down NOW before he destroys our Country!

2) Sen, Barrack Obama... by c5then

I disagreed with the 2nd Amendment before I agreed with it.

I have always said that I believe whatever will get me elected at the time.

3) Good point, c5! by motherbelt

Good point, c5!

I also think that individual right is constrained by the rights of the community to maintain issues with public safety. [...] ...what I've been saying consistently is what the Supreme Court essentially said today." (emphasis added)

No, it isn't. According to your interpretation, handgun bans should be allowed in the interest of public safety. SCOTUS just said they're not.

It is scary though, that 4 of the 9 were in favor of an outright ban.

4) Yeahhhh....right Obama... by bassndude

Yeahhhh....right Obama. Im with ya on that...what was that you said again?

5) Funny how Obama disagrees with the Judges he loves by Dee Bunk

Funny how Obama disagrees with the Judges he loves.. and agrees with the ones he hates on the last two decisions.

Will the media ever ask him to admit that seeing how he agrees with these decisions, does he regret supporting a filibuster for Roberts and Alito and would he vow not to appoint judges like the ones who voted against these two decisions?

Obama only wants to appoint judges he disagrees with I guess. What a joke.

6) Decision by JDW

Exactly, consider the 5-4 decision. How important is the ability to appoint?

7) First Time by JDW

'While Obama isn’t a gun guy, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman said, at least he’s honest about it.'

Dude!

8) Hey BT by Dee Bunk

Yes finally a victory for conservatives. We haven't had a significant one in a really long time other than the Partial Birth Ban. Lets just hope it's not overturned in a few years with Obama's picks.

9) Howdy Dee... Especially by bigtimer

Howdy Dee...

Especially since the messiah himself voted for partial birth abortion...something even Boxer and Feinstein voted against!

What also is spooky for me is Kennedy has become the self-important Sandra Day O'Connor with his swing vote...one way or the other....makes me very weary.

Obama's quote is Clintonesque in its circular reasoning.

A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have. -Gerald Ford

10) Wait.... what did he say by soulpile

Wait.... what did he say again? I really can't untangle that mess of a statement. Feels like somebody tried to make sense, but just scrambled it all up anyway. Doublespeak at it's finest, ladies and gents.

Not to nitpick but does he *still* teach constitutional law?

11) Be afraid, very afraid by Dan The Man 2

Be afraid, very afraid "I don't know what my aide said but I've been very consistent, I teach constitutional law" And what is scary is that he can't stand by what his campaign says is his stand on the issues. He either does not have his house in order or he has even his close aides are confused as to what his stances are. The perinial empty suit, sorta reminds me of Pinky and the Brain when they made an empty suit.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/ken-shepherd/2008/06/26/abcs-tapper-notes-obama-shuffle-gun-rights

Americans have right to guns under landmark ruling
By James Vicini June 26, 2008

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Individual Americans have a right to own guns, the Supreme Court ruled on Thursday for the first time in the country's history, striking down a strict gun control law in the U.S. capital.

The landmark 5-4 ruling marked the first time in nearly 70 years the high court has addressed the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It rejected the argument the right to keep and bear arms was tied to service in a state militia.

Justice Antonin Scalia said for the majority the Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with militia service and to use it for traditional lawful purposes, such as self-defense in the home.

The ruling won praise from President George W. Bush, Republican presidential candidate John McCain and Wayne LaPierre of the politically powerful National Rifle Association, who said, "This is a great moment in American history."

The justices split along conservative-liberal lines in the ruling, one of the most important of the court's current term, in deciding a legal battle over gun rights in America. The ruling came on the last day of the court's 2007-08 term, with the four liberal dissenting justices warning of the ruling's consequences..

Bush's two appointees on the court, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito, both voted with the majority in finding an individual right to keep firearms.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain applauded the ruling and criticized his Democratic opponent Barack Obama for comments he had made during the political campaign.

"Unlike the elitist view that believes Americans cling to guns out of bitterness, today's ruling recognizes that gun ownership is a fundamental right -- sacred, just as the right to free speech and assembly," McCain said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080626/ts_nm/usa_guns_court_dc

-- June 26, 2008 5:37 PM


Roger wrote:

Tim Bitts,

China may very well be an opportunity for stocks, but all in all what they are doing is very harmful to the world, it is not only a US ignorance that is displayed when we, like suckers, day after day, week after week, month after month year after year, consider the trade imbalance with China like a "good deal".

The short term enthusiasm for CD players in WalMart for 19 bucks, have been killing our own production base at home.

Capitalism at an extreme have exactly the same function as a Communistic system.

You may shake your head at the last statement, but let me explain.

There have to be ONE FACTOR, introduced into the capitalistic system, in order for it to work, otherwise the capitalistic system will slowly turn into the same as Communistic system.

I guess I have your mind rev-ed up by now, but just hold on, I am getting there.

Free competition.

A communistic system is based on one principle, that all the assets are under one monopoly, in the case of communists, it is called the state, or the common ownership of resources, or whatever, it is one entity that controls it all, sets the prices and control the availability of the resource, by its predetermined quota of production.

A Capitalistic system, in where ONE source, company, corporation, etc.. have all the control, or monopoly of the resource, is acting in it's basic economical principal exactly the same.

The only difference is that ONE company have all the control over the exact product.

State or corporation, doesn't matter, as long as the control itself is at one source only.

This was in the US a merging system that developed from about the end of the Civil War, to the turn of the century (1865 to 1905), big companies had worked itself into monopoly, and there was basically no competition left.

Theodore Roosevelt was a pretty bright man, and saw this. The US was at the time, in about as bad shape as any communistic country you can mention.

All the heavy industry in the US, coal, oil, railroads, steel, etc was under a monopoly, from companies that had merged into one super controller of that particular asset.

T.R. broke up all the monopolies in the US, and set laws against it, and the US have been a very healthy economic entity for a long time.

The problem is, those laws applies domestically here in the US only, and when a healthy economic system is faced with a communist system, that are controlling its currency, (another form of monopoly), you are forced to play by the rules here in the US, but the international player that plays with you, are not bound by those rules.

So, China will in principal act as THE MONOPOLY for consumer goods for consumer in the North Americas, (and in many other places of the world also).

China is not controlling their industry like the Soviets, but they have the complete control of their export, by doing the biggest fraud in history. All we see is capitalism in China, companies producing all kinds of stuff, that is a natural part of a free and healthy capitalistic system and are applauding them, believing they have now , "heading in our direction".

So while it seems like a bargain to get stocks in China, I rather send them a trade embargo that will not be lifted, until they get the idea that the world is not revolving around China, but what they do is harming the whole world, with their controlled economy, They ARE Communists, acting like Capitalists, looks like Capitalists, and talk the talk like Capitalists, but they are a wolf in sheep clothing, they ARE a Communist country and are acting as such in it's most fundamental economical acts.

But, it may be easy to blame China, as long as the consumer here are willingly buying their products.

The ordinary man on the street, generally don't see it in this way, they see a price tag, and go with that.

That leaves the importer, as long as he can make a killing, he will, and as long as this cycle will repeat, each purchase of economical controlled goods will deepen our own ability to not prosper.

It is our own indoctrination, that this is a free country, that this is free trade, and getting down to this issues, will in a way step on our toes about our rights.

So we freely allow this to happen, with our idea of free trade, free speech free this, free that, but are swallowed up by a place called China, that is acting precisely the same way as the old monopolies here in the US, before T.R. broke them up.

The basic debate would be, is it them or us?

It takes two hands to make an applause.

Is one of the hands a criminal, the other hand is dumb?

Sure looks that way.


-- June 26, 2008 5:51 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Roger,

It's hard to disagree with most of what you wrote. I have no doubt that China would like to run the world. I'm sure you're right. I came to very similar conclusions, a long time ago.

I've spent a lot of time with Orientals of various kinds. I admire some of their cultures, some of the times. Remember, from your history, that except for about the past 400 years, the Chinese were far more advanced than Europeans. Many of them consider themselves superior to Europeans, and Americans, and think the natural order of the world would be for Chinese to rule over other groups, like Americans. The Great Wall of China was built to keep out the barbarians, which is to say, people like me.

So the Chinese will do whatever it takes, to come out on top. If it means sacrifice, hard work, and re-writing the rules of capitalism, to take advantage of foolish Americans, who do not protect their own economic base, then the Chinese will do it, for sure.

The consumer on the street has no control over this. Our leaders set up the rules of capitalism, and are supposed to protect us from unfair competition. If they don't, we suffer. It's the same with Japan. The trade balance, with the Japanese, is unfair to America.

The Chinese have a culture that "thinks long". I admire that. That's why their leader plan, like you pointed out, exactly how China will outsmart America, by playing the economic game in a way that advantages China, which means China will eventually economically come to dominate America. No doubt about it. That's why China sets up it's own rules of capitalism, as you pointed out. They do it deliberately, so they can dominate America, in time.

I think this problem has cultural roots. One of the worst things about America, is it seems to have large-scale ADD, or Attention Deficit Deficit. Everything is about NOW, about immediate gratification, and narcissism. Congress in the United States is at a low, in historic approval rates. I approve of President Bush, and his handling of terrorism, but I'd have to say, I don't think much, in general, of the leadership class in America. I think they're letting the country down. America deserves better. America is up to it's neck in debt, as Neil points out. Anyhow, based on present economic growth rates, China will overtake America, as the number one economic superpower, in about 25 years. That's where the future is being built.

China has done many smart things to overtake the United States.

America is in a race, for controlling the world, with the Chinese. The only thing is, China is the only country, out of the two, who realized that they are in a race, for controlling the future. America doesn't even realize it is in a race. It's hard to win a race you don't even know you're in.

China is developing it's educational base. America lags way, way behind most countries, for educational achievement levels. The figures are quite shocking, and embarrassing for America, actually. I follow this kind of thing. My home province, Alberta, is near or at the top of the world, in quality of education, right up there with Singapore and Japan, in math and science scores, but most of America ranks somewhere around 30th, in the world. And whoever has the best educated population will, in the future, control the world. Right now, that doesn't look like it will be America.

Anyhow, don't expect China to change, Roger, till pressure is put on them to change. China is outwitting America, on a game America practically invented, or at least took to a high level; that is, capitalism.

Of course, America is playing it's own game with the Chinese right now, in Iraq. There were many reasons to go into Iraq. I think that part of the underlying reason, for the invasion, was that America wanted to have leverage, over the Chinese. As you pointed out, China is trying for a monopoly, on supplying consumer goods, to North America. Well, now that we're talking about economics, I'd like to point out that about 80% of all economic activity, in any economic system, whether it is capitalist, or communist, depends, in some way, directly, or indirectly, on oil.

Without oil, our modern economic system would not work. Take away oil, and the whole thing falls apart, in a matter of weeks. I remember reading about the economic power of oil one time. If I remember right, if you take one barrel of oil, and you look at it from a point of view of work done, you find something interesting.

But first of all, why value oil in work, in an economic system? Because that's what makes sense. I'll give you a quick example, from my uncle's farm. He uses diesel, an oil product, to run his tractors, cultivators, seeders and trucks and combines for harvesting. Now, my uncle is 65, and is a small and scrawny fellow. But using modern farm equipment, which entirely relies on oil to run, he can do the work of perhaps a hundred able bodied men and women, and he can produce enough food for hundreds of people. Those people, instead of raising their food, are free to use their life energy to perform other tasks necessary to a high standard of living.

This basic principle runs right through the entire economy. Oil is unique. It is portable energy that can be used to perform vast amounts of work. I remember reading that 1 single barrel of oil can be used, with mechanical apparatuses of various kinds, to perform the amount of work that 10 healthy young people would perform, if they worked 8 hours a day, for an entire year. Now, America uses about 20 million barrels of oil a day, last time I checked. (from memory) That represents an incredible amount of work. It also represents why America has such a high standard of living. Take away oil, and the standard of living goes right down the sewer.

That work gets translated into everyday uses for each and every American. It's the way cars and trucks and trains, for the most part, propel themselves from place to place. It's the energy required to build houses and cities. It's the energy to build hospitals, and to fly airplanes, and grow all our food. Take away oil and what's left of our economic system? Not much.

We'd all end up starving in the dark.

So, anyway, getting back to China, and America, and the economic games China is playing with America. The United States is playing it's own power game, with China. China wants to control the production of consumer goods. Bush, in going into Iraq, wanted to establish control over the currently most precious natural resource in the world: oil.

Part of the advantage of controlling oil, is it gives America economic leverage over Europe and China. China has enormous power over America, right now, due to America's addiction to cheap Chinese consumer goods. China is also holding trillions of dollars in American securities, and can play economic games with that. What power does America have over China? Take away oil, and it's not much. And the Chinese, make no mistake, plan to completely match America, militarily.

So, controlling oil, that's part of the game that the Republicans are playing with China, and frankly, I fully support them in their quest. I support them, in this, because oil is crucial to controlling the future, and also because I know perfectly well that China is playing exactly the same game as America: they are attempting to control and take over the world. All is fair in love and war, I guess. Both China and America, would like to run the world. So, if I have to make a choice, on who to support, in running the world, I have to say, I support America. Someone has to run the world. I like Chinese people, in general, but I'd have to say, I'm familiar enough with their culture that I really don't want them running the world.

As to whether China is communist, or capitalist, I don't think all this theorizing about various economic system matters at all to the Chinese. The only thing they care about is that they eventually dominating everybody else. Whether that comes through communism or capitalism, or communism pretending it is capitalism, they could care less, as long as it ends with the Chinese running everything.

So, I think America should do what it can do, to stay ahead of China. I think America should figure out, like you alluded, that America is being outwitted, economically. America should start thinking about that, and doing something about it, or, as you said, America will have to accept that China will run the world, in the future, not America. America's economic base if being destroyed every day, at Wal-Mart. As Karl Marx once said, contemptously, about capitalists, "Capitalists are so stupid and greedy, they would sell you the rope, which you would then use, to hang them!"

The future will be built by grown up countries that have a clear and good vision, and the strength to pursue that vision, and look after it's own interests. And that's what worries me about Iraq. If America leaves Iraq, with the mission, half done, it will be a signal to the entire world, that America is no longer a grown up nation. It is, instead, unsure of itself, and it's beliefs. And that America is no longer a serious country. That's how the rest of the world would interpret America running out of Iraq.

Despite my pointing out problems concerning America, I have great faith that America will eventually straighten out it's problems. America is a great nation, in the long view of history. Most of America's best days are ahead of her. There's lots of reasons to be hopeful.

-- June 26, 2008 9:09 PM


Carole wrote:

Roger and Tim,

Highlight of my day...to read your discussion re:China/US

Am I totally off the mark...because as I remember history, we empowered China to be the nation BIG COMPANIES choose to move their factories because of the US astromonmical labor costs (fueled by the labor union movements in the 40's 50's and 60's)?

Roger, when you alluded that it takes 2 hands to applaud, the first thing that came to my mind, was that in the world of criminology, the receiver of the stolen goods is considered more felonious than the thief!

Roger..PLEEEEEEEZ your take on the current situation and near future of the Dinar?

Thanks,

Carole

-- June 26, 2008 10:29 PM


NEIL wrote:

Tim Bitts, you show an uncanny understanding of the world situation and I hope you are right in that there is a chess game going on and the Americans are plotting their next move; however I am not seeing any slick maneuvering on our part. We go in and inflict insurmountable damage to a Country and start to repair the damage. I totally concur with you that oil is the trump card in any equasion but I do not see any inroads that we have made insofar as oil. We seem to be on an even keel with every country that wants a finger in the pot.

I may be a Draconist but I think we should have taken over the oil in Iraq and gradually let the Iraqi people take control and only then when it served our purpose. Otherwise oil is irrelevent and we get no advantage over anyone else.

My thinking may be outmoded but I believe that the victor should get some of the spoils and we gave up any desire for oil too quick. Our lifeblood depends upon oil and we walked away from Iraqi oil like we were too gentlemanly to confiscate one bucket of their oil.

If the oil ever stops, this nation will turn into a bunch of savages with everyon trying to get whatever it takes to survive regardless of who it belongs to.

All I am saying is that I hope there is someone in Washington who understands that this country's interests must be looked after occasionally.

-- June 26, 2008 11:30 PM


terry853 wrote:

Thanks Tim and Roger. Excellent and informed debate. Very interesting discussion. Think I learned something today. I agree with Carole. Highlight read of the day. Thanks gents..Terry..

-- June 27, 2008 12:08 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Neil,

thanks for your comments. I think the Iraqis have have plenty of reasons for wanting to keep the Americans, in Iraq, for a while. And I think America has plenty of reasons for wanting to stay in Iraq, and help that country to re-build, and to help them get the oil flowing, at a high rate. So, I think the relationship between Iraq and America will be a voluntary arrangement, based on mutual interests coinciding.

Right now, Iraq is pumping out about 2.5 million barrels a day, last time I checked. (from memory) And I expect them to pump out 10-12 million barrels a day, within a decade. Things are going slow now, you're right. It doesn't look like America has gained a lot, with regards to oil, you're right there. And it's hard to recommend patience, when it has taken so long, but I am convinced that, given more time, Iraq will turn into an amazing and rich, success story, for it's people. (and for Dinar investors)

And America will have the energy supply it needs, as it is getting ready to eventually develop and transfer to, alternative energy sources, for when oil runs out. (there are an awful lot of positive development on this front, but they too will take time)

Neil, I DO think there is a chess game going on in the world, and America is plotting it's next move. But I should qualify that statement. I think the Republicans understand the importance of oil, and they understand the dangers of Islamo-fascism. The Republicans are plotting their chess moves carefully. I don't think the Democrats understand these things. I don't even think they are playing chess. Checkers is more like it. That's a big part of the reason I don't support them.

I think the Democrats would endanger the security of America, because they don't take terrorism seriously. They think fighting terrorism is just a matter of more international policing. I don't think that's realistic. I think a lot of terrorists would nuke the United States, if they got their hands on the right weapons. And I know for a fact that nuclear weapons are proliferating, at a frightening rate. It'll only be a matter of time, before terrorists use these weapons, against America.

That's why I'd tell Obama to jump in a lake, if I ever met him. He's dead wrong on terrorism. He voted against the war with Iraq. I think the war with Iraq was many things. Part of the reason for going into Iraq, was to send a message to the Arab world: If you allow terrorists to organize, on your country's soil, and you do nothing about it, and if they attack America, we will hold your governments responsible, and we will invade your country.

I think that was the appropriate message, at the time.

Now, I'm not saying Iraq was behind 9*11. I never thought it was. America could not invade Saudi Arabia, the country that produced 19 out of 21 of the terrorists on 9*11, because America depends on Saudi Arabian oil. But Saudis are Arabs and Muslims, as are most Iraqis. They are, culturally, one people. So, by invading Iraq, the President was sending a signal to the entire Muslim world. So, I'm sure the Arab and Muslim world understood perfectly well the message George Bush was sending them, when America invaded: Arabs and Muslims in the middle east must clean up their acts, with regards to terrorism, or America will do something about it.

I thought it was an appropriate message to send, at the time it was sent, and I still think so. (there were other reasons to go in as well)

Obama was wrong on this, at the start of the war, and he's still wrong.

I just hope it doesn't take another terrorist attack on America to convince that fool of the error of his ways.

-- June 27, 2008 12:19 AM


Roger wrote:

Oil and energy as a leverage.

So far oil is one of the best ever ways of generating work. One healthy man is capable of producing in the vicinity of 1/3 horsepower, maybe 1/2 if he is in good shape.

In a car, that is about the power needed to pull the alternator, in order to make the lights, fan and the stereo run.

The rest of the 250 HP (that we think that we absolutely need), to propel the car, is from the work of oil.

Few viable alternatives have come up so far when it comes to other sources of energy.

The only viable replacement would be nuclear power, but it would be quite some time before 7/11 starts to sell enriched Uranium rods, to put into your cars built in nuclear reactor, each ten years or so.

It is however a fully technical possibility. Nuclear power plants have been made extremely small to fit into satellites, and work wonders.

If the control over oil is in one powers hands, he pretty much can dictate when to open the taps or not, and decide where it will flow, who will be the winner and who will be the loser.

The US have, and have not, the control at the same time.

The US have the arms, and for sure have been willing to take on the Jihad's living where the oil exist, but in the final analysis, the oil is not the property of the US.

It is owned by each producing state, but the US have other means to control the oil, like creating the "Oil Dollar" and have binding long term agreements on all kinds of issues, trade, development, military support, and in any field expertise is needed, with the oil producing states, that are so extensive that the regimes are basically "in the pocket" but not in a too transparent way.

The oil owned by the Gulf States are not owned by the US, but the control of the oil is not too hard of a thing to achieve.

The oil prices are skyrocketing, and the Saudis are asked to increase production ( probably as a stop gap until Iraq is fully on line).

The Saudis, probably having suspicion of their own reserves as not being as big as first estimated, and in an effort to conserve the countrys only resource, didn't really want to do that.

So a little bit higher voice this time, and ....oooookkkay we will increase the production.(However don't do too much...I will come back to that later)

The architects of the newly created energy hub, I am absolutely sure that neither the Iraqis, Turkey, India, Israel or any other party have by themselves pushed for this idea, the US is the only one that are able to put this thing together, in such a fashion that each participating country will benefit greatly from it.

Their benefit is by being part in the whole creation. They don't necessary benefit from the whole creation, only in their part.

The whole set up, when working in the fashion it is set up, the only beneficiary is the US, Its policy, and its intentions.

China is sitting on Billions upon Billions of US Dollars, and by their own creation of how their system works, the Chinese currency is not accepted as payment for the oil they need.

China and Russia have been dallying in Iran, and have been pretty reluctant to come aboard WITH the rest of the worlds agendas, but have been acting like a teenager opposing any sane step, arguing, and opposing obvious solutions in a pretty constant way.

As a result, China and Russia have had pretty bad luck in getting in in Iraq.

China as an emerging state, have had a very high surge in it's need for oil recently, and thus, prices to produce all the cheap stuff have gone up.

The expansion boom in China is over, China have had a very good ride, but are getting strangled by its own need for resources. Chinese companies have in the last couple of years themselves gone to other markets where labour is cheaper (imagine that).

While still expanding, it is not the yester years boom.

China have gone exactly the same route as Japan had after the war, first quantity, then quality. Fifteen years back, the stuff coming out of China was terrible, today China have approached the quality cycle, and that means that the stuff they are making will take more energy.

They will eventually get into stuff like Japan have, Sony , Toyota, and other high quality items.

The population in China will demand more and more of the fruits from their hard labor, and see no reason why they can not drive a BMW. (BMW, AUDI, Mercedes, etc, is doing a killing in China right now).

So back to the pendulum, who is sitting on a monumental load of Dollars,.... China.

Who is in need of more and more fuel (oil)....well, China.

With what do you pay oil with...Dollars.

Who is in control of the oil...US.

Who skimmed the US on their bucks....China.

So, then it is easy...rack up the price of oil, (there are no lack of oil in this world)

So China, you want the oil, well what do you have...oh you have Dollars, well give us the Dollars, here is your oil....

...and we are soooo sorry that the price just happened to quadruple the last couple of years, and we are sooooo sorry that the value of the Dollar took a dump, but you know how it is, with Jihad, terrorism and all that.

-"Hand over the Dollar by the bundle, and hold out your cup, for the oil."

If we really wanted the Saudis to start pumping seriously in order to really bring the prices down, they would have done that long ago.

You may already have noticed in your WalMart shopping that the Chinese stuff have been more expensive.

The Gulf states could have switched to other currencies as their peg, long ago, but by some mysterious reason they are hanging onto the Dollar, like it will be worth gold in the future....wonder why?

Iran trying to do oil business in Euros, will probably be smashed, their regime ousted, and Iran oil fields being rebuilt, with modern equipment and get a high oil out put again, ...and it will be in Dollar ( Chinese Dollars )

We have not seen the end of all this yet, it is in the process, but watch it closely and be amazed at how the US beat China into playing it by the rules.

What is happening now, is not happening by accident, opportunity or chance.


-- June 27, 2008 3:57 AM


Sara wrote:

Roger;

That was very interesting, Thank You!

I never thought of China as getting an unfair monopoly by their practices before.

It really is a Communist way of doing Capitalism.. and undermines the underpinnings of Capitalism.

China has, indeed, by keeping its currency artificially low, made its exports more easily affordable.

And has unfairly competed with the capitalist markets.

Only we didn't seem to care or slap on tarriffs like we should against this unfair monopoly and practice.. so American businesses, competing with a foreign Government, was unable to compete.. and lost.

Especially when they set up their goods distributors right within the Capitalist country, and those Western people providing the cheap Chinese goods prospered.. making it a true Trojan Horse in our midst.. an APPARENT attempt to compete in a Capitalistic way supposedly by Westerners, but not really, since they were bankrolled by the Chinese government keeping their currency artificially low to gain a monopoly in the marketplace.

Sneaky... and low.

Sara.

-- June 27, 2008 9:28 AM


Sara wrote:

Congress Passes New Iraq War Funds
By Richard Cowan
June 27, 2008

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Thursday approved $161.8 billion in new funds to continue fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next year, without timetables for withdrawing combat troops.

The House of Representatives passed an identical bill last week. President George W. Bush is expected to promptly sign the measure into law once he receives it from Congress.

The Senate's 92-6 vote to pass the war-funding bill marked a victory for Bush, who has vigorously opposed any move by Congress to impose timetables for ending the Iraq war, now in its sixth year.

Democrats, who are the majority party in Congress, repeatedly had tried to set such dates, most recently with a House vote in May calling for troop withdrawals to be completed by December 31, 2009.

The new war money could last through mid-2009, well past Bush's departure from office on January 20.

The new money for combat in Iraq and Afghanistan puts the war tab since late 2001 at more than $800 billion, with most of that money going to Iraq.

Congress did attach two conditions on the funds, related to the war in Iraq. It prohibited the construction of permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq and required Baghdad to match, dollar-for-dollar, U.S. reconstruction aid.

Now that Congress has passed the final war-funding bill of Bush's presidency, debate of the Iraq war and how to end it moves to the presidential campaigns being waged by Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=5259335

-- June 27, 2008 10:35 AM


Sara wrote:

New McCain Ad says:

John McCain will call America to our next national purpose: Energy Security.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O85jpuFKT4

-- June 27, 2008 11:29 AM


Sara wrote:

Key Iraqi al-Qaeda figure 'dead'
Friday, 27 June 2008

The US military in Iraq says a militant killed on Tuesday has been positively identified as the leader of al-Qaeda in the city of Mosul.

It said the man - identified by a pseudonym, Abu Khalaf - had co-ordinated and ordered many attacks.

He was shot dead by American troops during a raid on a building in Mosul.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7477235.stm

-- June 27, 2008 12:17 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

you said, "but in the final analysis, the oil is not the property of the U.S." You said this, in reference to the issue of control over oil, and using oil as a political leverage, over other countries.

Yes, you're right. The oil belongs to sovereign states, in the middle east. To some degree, they can do what they want with it. The can decide who they will, and won't sell it to. This means America does not have full and complete control over the oil, as a political weapon.

That's all true. But it's more complicated than that.

America right now is trying to encourage the Iraqi government to set up new oil laws that would benefit BOTH America and Iraq. However, these new laws are being set up in a slightly different way, than the way oil is controlled, in the rest of the middle east.

In the rest of the middle east, the governments control and own not only the oil, but also companies that produce that oil. For instance, in Saudi Arabia, that would be Saudi Aramco.

If the new oil laws are passed in Iraq, much more emphasis would be placed on allowing foreign ownership of oil fields, and very long term, in the range of 30 years, giving long term access to developing those fields.

This is a much better arrangement than having the Iraqis develop the fields themselves, under their national oil company. Private industry can do a much better job, much much quicker, in getting that country up and running. As things stand right now, due to the mess Saddam left behind, the Iraqis right now simply don't have the necessary technical capacity to develop their economy, and energy resources. They need foreign help, and a lot of it.

In time, the Iraqis will get up to speed on this, and will be fully capable of producing enough competent people to take over the tasks that foreigners will be required to do, but not yet. You will find the same pattern in the rest of the oil rich middle east. There are an awful lot of foreigners brought in, to help manage and develop the economy.

So, anyway, if the new oil laws are passed, and economic liberalization that comes with it, then Iraq can flourish. (And we'll all do extremely well on the $$$$$Dinar$$$$$.)Of course, if American companies have very long term contracts to develop the oil in Iraq, that means a couple of things. The first, is Iraqis will benefit enormously. The second is that long term contracts effectively give America a degree of control over those oil resources.

That degree of control is not complete, of course. Iraq ultimately controls and owns their own oil. But it's like the difference between leasing, or buying a house. I can buy a house, pay off the mortgage, and own it out right. Or, I can lease a house, for 30 years. If I lease, I don't really own, but I effectively have use of that property, with some limits attached to it, for 30 years. Leasing is not a bad option.

Now, if mostly American oil companies, (as well as British, French, and Canadian and Indian and Norweigan oil companies) are producing most of the oil in Iraq, then those companies are subject to legislative oversight, and the tax laws, of the United States. Which means the American government has a certain amount of leverage over American oil companies, even overseas. Which means those companies are likely to sell their products to those countries that are favoured, by the American government.

Which means, to a degree, the American government has some influence over the sale of oil, around the world. Which is what I said before: One of the reasons the American government went into Iraq, was to has some degree of control, over the world's energy supply, especially when it comes to China.

Of course, in the future, Iraqis can always change their laws. Once they become competant enough to manage everything themselves, they might nationalize all existing oil companies in Iraq. But I can't see even the potential for that happening, for at least 20 years. Iraq is in a real mess. They really need American help, to get their economy, up and running. Iraq won't even be able to defend itself against foreign aggressors, like Iran, for at least a decade.

But, like I said, eventually the oil in Iraq could be nationalized, perhapes in 25 years, and American companies could lose their assests there. Which is another reason for the American Army to stick around in the region. The American Army doesn't necessarily have to be in Iraq. They don't necessarily have to occupy the country, for the next 30 years. They just have to be close enough around, so that the threat of the potential for military intervention is always there. It's like having some cops at the end of the street. When that happens, young hooligans are usually less likely to cause trouble. With the American Army in the region, nearby, the Iraqi government in the future are less likely to try to break those oil contracts.

And, of course, like you said, the governments in the region have plenty of reasons, of their own, to have good relations with the Americans, other than the threat of force. Reasons like economic development, technical assistance, trade, mutually beneficial military and security assistance. So all that gives lots of reason to be hopeful about he future, there.

And all this, is a long way of saying, what you also said, "The US have, and have not, the control at the same time" So, I guess we agree on that.

-- June 27, 2008 12:46 PM


Sara wrote:

Please note the alternative to our going into Iraq as given in the narrative below:

Had we not opened fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq against terrorists, we would have left them free to send the same jihadis against Western targets around the world, especially after their success on 9/11 and later in Bali and Madrid.

===

In case no one’s noticed, we’re winning
June 27, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

Gerard Baker wonders in his Times of London column why the West wears such long faces regarding the war on terror. On every front, we have prevailed far past the hopes we had after 9/11.

The radical Islamists have managed to marginalize themselves among even conservative Muslims, and both Iraq and Afghanistan continue to advance towards stability and moderation. The al-Qaeda network has not been able to stage a major terrorist attack in over three years. By any measure of war, the West has not just taken the initiative but has delivered a series of major defeats, especially in stripping AQ of its easy shelter in Afghanistan, from which it launched a series of attacks in the decade before 9/11.

So why does the West despair?

There ought to be no surprise here. It’s only their apologists in the Western media who really failed to see the intrinsic evil of Islamists. Those who have had to live with it have never been in much doubt about what it represents. Ask the people of Iran. Or those who fled the horrors of Afghanistan under the Taleban.

This is why we fight. Primarily, of course, to protect ourselves from the immediate threat of terrorist carnage, but also because we know that extending the embrace of a civilisation that liberates everyone makes us all safer.

Every death is an unspeakable tragedy. It’s right that each time a soldier is killed in action we ask why. Was it really worth it?

The right response to the loss of brave souls such as Corporal Sarah Bryant, the first British woman to die in Afghanistan, is not an immediate call for retreat. It is, first of all, pride; a great, deep conviction that it is on such sacrifice that our own freedoms have always rested. Then, defiance. How foolish is the enemy that it might think our grief is really some prelude to their victory? Finally, confidence. We are prevailing in this struggle. We know it. And everywhere: in Afghanistan, in Iraq, and among Muslims around the world, the enemy knows it too.

==end quote==

I believe that a couple of impulses are at play in the doom and gloom coming from Western media. First, it’s a lot easier to report on bombings than on bomb disposals, and on attacks rather than prevented attacks. That doesn’t even involve a bias as much as a structural defect of the current way the news media presents itself. Consumers get overdoses of instant reporting, but demand a lot less longer-view analysis. Decades from now, when historians write about this conflict in a complete narrativ, Baker’s point will be more clear, but at this stage, people simply don’t look at the long view.

A larger component of the defeatism could have been predicted from the start. The common wisdom after 9/11 was that invading Afghanistan would be a huge tactical mistake, and that the American military would repeat the experience of the British Army in the 19th century and the Soviets of the 1980s. On a wider basis, many voices insisted that terrorists could not be defeated militarily and that it was useless to try that strategy. Nor have these opinions disappeared. It came from the pacifist Left movement that gained strength after the failure in Vietnam, and they have a large stake in fostering an air of futility rather than acknowledge success.

Read through Baker’s recap of the war as we approach the seven-year mark. What would have been the alternative?

Had we not opened fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq against terrorists, we would have left them free to send the same jihadis against Western targets around the world, especially after their success on 9/11 and later in Bali and Madrid. Instead, they have been more or less neutered into an ideology, still dangerous but at least so far not capable of major coordinated action outside of their region.

It’s not victory, but it is initiative and momentum. Defeatism run amuck could derail both.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/27/in-case-no-ones-noticed-were-winning/

-- June 27, 2008 1:11 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Roger,

You said, "there are no lack of oil in this world"

Really? Then, where is it?

Why isn't more of it being produced, so the cost comes down? I'm sure America has some influence over how much oil is produced in the middle east, but America can't tell Russia how much oil to produce. Oil prices are very high. The Russians could make a financial killing if they ramped up their production. Why aren't they doing it?

I know it takes a while to get large quantities of oil production, online, but I haven't heard of any Russian plans, for major increases in oil production. And I haven't heard any news of large new oil fields, the size of the ones in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, being found. Have you heard any news along these lines? They only large oil find I've heard of, in recent years, is a large find, off the coast of Brazil, by Petrobras, and that find was still small, by Iraqi and Saudi standards. That's not to say, oil isn't being found. It is being found, around the world. Just nothing comparable in size to the large reserves in the middle east, like the Ghawar Field. So where is the oil?

Whether or not, there's a lot of oil left in the world is uncertain. I think it's fair to say, everyone interested in oil, generally agrees, there is only a certain amount of CHEAP oil left, that's easy to find, in the world. It's debatable, whether there is no lack of oil in the world.

There are 2 sides to this debate, of course. I remember reading, that at a conference of geologists, when about 2,000 geologists where at a large conference, an informal poll was taken. The question was asked, "Do you believe the world is at Peak Oil?" In other words, do you think the world is running out of oil? If anyone should know, it would be geologists. Anyhow, about half the geologists said they agreed that the world had reached Peak Oil. And half didn't believe it.

So, the jury is still out, on that question, of how much oil is left in the world. There may be a lot of oil left, in the world. You might be right. But additional large quantities haven't been found yet. Why not? Why have new huge superfield finds, on oil, been diminishing for about 20 years?

My own view, is frankly, I don't know if the world is running out of oil. What I am sure about, is that the world is running out of oil that is cheap to produce, and whose location is well known.

Iraq is the last of the low hanging fruit. That is, Iraq is the last of the cheap, easy to produce, well known oil fields with vast quantities of cheap oil left, in the world. If there are others, I'd love to know where they are. So would the oil companies.

Iraqi oil can be produced for $3 a barrel, in production costs. In my home province of Alberta, the dirtiest, most costly and complex extraction of oil, ever considered, is happening right now, in huge quantities. The Alberta Oil Sands are incredibly costly to develop. The pollution levels that come from producing Alberta crude oil are 3-5 times higher than oil from the middle east. To get to that oil, Alberta is ripping up landscape the size of Florida. Oil production costs are about $30 a barrel right now, in Alberta, compared to $3 a barrel for middle eastern oil. You'd think, if there was so much oil, in the world, that people, somewhere, would be developing it more, other than costly oil in Alberta. Wouldn't you?

To me, the huge economic boom in my home province of Alberta, is a sign that the oil companies can't find any cheaper oil to produce. That worries me.

Where's the oil, Roger?

-- June 27, 2008 2:22 PM


Sara wrote:

Carole and Board;

McCain endorses state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in California

EXCLUSIVE:McCain Makes Clear Support for CA Marriage Amendment

The Brody File has learned that John McCain has sent a statement supporting a California constitutional amendment to the group trying to get it passed this fall.

Here is what he said on June 25, 2008:

“I support the efforts of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution between a man and a woman, just as we did in my home state of Arizona. I do not believe judges should be making these decisions.”…

http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/399653.aspx

Says Allahpundit at Hotair: "Didn’t he already do this a few weeks ago? Well, no — his campaign did, which evidently is an important distinction for social cons wanting to hear more values talk from Maverick himself. Not only is he now on record FOR the constitutional marriage amendment in California, he also put HIS name on it.

-- June 27, 2008 2:38 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts - I have appreciated very much your posts of late.. yours and roger's have been very interesting and challenging. Thank you, both. :)

Sara.

-- June 27, 2008 2:41 PM


tm bitts wrote:

Sara, and Carole and Terry853, and all, you are welcome.

-- June 27, 2008 2:50 PM


Sara wrote:

Time poll: Virtual dead heat
June 27, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

Those Newsweek and LA Times polls look more and more like outliers or worse. With both Gallup and Rasmussen showing either outright or virtual ties in their presidential tracking polls, Time offers even more evidence that Barack Obama has failed to pull away from John McCain after clinching the nomination. Even more troubling, McCain holds his own among a sample of registered voters as opposed to likely voters, a sample that should favor Obama,
QUOTE:

When undecided voters leaning towards Obama and McCain are accounted for, the race narrows to a mere 4 percentage points, barely above the poll’s 3.5% margin of error. Thirty percent of those who remain undecided said they lean towards McCain, 20% said they were leaning toward Obama with 46% citing no preference. Overall, 28% said they could still change their minds in the four months left before the November election. (end quote)

The results should raise eyebrows. Obama has actually lost ground since February, which dovetails with his collapse in the final months of the Democratic primary. This tends to underscore the shakiness of the Obama phenomenon; it hasn’t translated into general-election enthusiasm, and the trends are going in the wrong direction. Among the wider and less-predictive sample of registered voters, that has to cause a great deal of concern among Democrats who thought Obama would sail to victory on the puffery of “hope and change”.

That’s not the only bad news here for Obama either, although Time tries to minimize it, quote: "McCain, a highly decorated Vietnam veteran, edged out Obama on national security issues. When asked who “would best protect the U.S. against terrorism,” 53% of respondents chose McCain to just 33% for Obama." (end quote)

So McCain “edged out” Obama — by twenty points? Voters trust McCain more than Obama on Iraq by ten points, which shows that the momentum of the Left on Iraq has ebbed significantly since the surge began showing results. It helps when McCain had it right and Obama’s defeatism has been proven wrong, and as the news continues to improve, that gap will widen further.

Some will say that the voters haven’t paid much attention to the race, and that Obama has plenty of time to put distance between himself and McCain. However, that ignores the attention Obama has received all throughout this campaign, especially in 2008. He has graced magazine covers across a wide spectrum of interests and the significance of his candidacy has been widely discussed for months, while McCain has had relatively little time in the spotlight. Obama will receive more scrutiny and less celebration in the coming four months, while McCain’s profile will rise rapidly. Obama needed to have a big lead before then, a head start to ride out the coming storm.

The more people see of Obama, the less they seem to like him.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/27/time-poll-virtual-dead-heat/

-- June 27, 2008 2:58 PM


Sara wrote:

Sadr’s army dissolving?
June 27, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

According to the Middle East Times, Moqtada al-Sadr’s militia has begun to disintegrate after a series of confrontations with the Iraqi Army throughout the south of Iraq. The remnants of the Mahdi Army have gone underground, forming an armed network on a much smaller scale. How small? Think of the Spartans at Thermopylae, and cut that in half while removing the courage and the military skill.

QUOTE:

The Mehdi Army of Moqtada Sadr is evolving into a clandestine movement following Iraqi military operations targeting the group, intelligence suggests.

The military wing of the Sadrist Movement, the political party loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, is “turning itself into a secret armed organization,” an Iraqi intelligence official told the Gulf News on condition of anonymity.

Iraqi intelligence reports suggest the group’s numbers have dwindled from around 50,000 to as few as 150 in the past few years.

Intelligence officials credit decisions by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to launch military offensives against Shiite militants in the southern parts of the country as deterring the group. An Iraqi intelligence official reports as many as 2,000 Mehdi Army fighters were killed in recent operations in Basra, Sadr City and the provincial capital of Maysan, Amarah.

===end quote==

Where did the rest of the Mahdis go? According to the intel official, a number of them followed Sadr into Iran, fleeing the IA when it came to Basra and Amarah. Maliki broke their back, and Sadr’s continuing issuance of empty threats wasn’t enough to keep the force together.

One could see this end result right from the beginning of the surge — actually, before it, when the surge first got announced. Sadr immediately fled to Iran and stayed there, turning the militia into another of Tehran’s proxies. The US kept them out of the way by avoiding engagements with the Mahdis and focusing on al-Qaeda in the West, but Maliki began isolating Sadr politically by building alliances with Sunnis, Kurds, and rival Shi’ites. Sadr got painted as a stooge of the Persians, and rightfully so. And when Maliki finally had a strong enough army, he took the lead against Sadr rather than the US, which finally gave Maliki a political edge against Sadr.

This became obvious over the last few weeks, when Sadr couldn’t get more than 1500 people to participate in a Sadr City protest over the Maliki actions in the south. It was a showing of Sadr’s weakness, and the flop showed how much ground Sadr had lost among his own constituency. He strongly suggested that he would declare war against the American forces and end the cease-fire, but he no longer has the forces to do that — and even the Mahdis remember the previous two beatings they took when Sadr dared to actively confront the US in Iraq.

Sadr has survived before, but this time he has lost the one asset that kept him politically alive. He may well wind up a forgotten toady in the court of the Iranian mullahcracy, and that’s if he’s lucky.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/27/sadrs-army-dissolving/

-- June 27, 2008 3:07 PM


Sara wrote:

Mehdi Army dissolving, reports say
Published: June 26, 2008

BAGHDAD, June 26 (UPI) -- The Mehdi Army of Moqtada Sadr is evolving into a clandestine movement following Iraqi military operations targeting the group, intelligence suggests.

The military wing of the Sadrist Movement, the political party loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, is "turning itself into a secret armed organization," an Iraqi intelligence official told the Gulf News on condition of anonymity.

Iraqi intelligence reports suggest the group's numbers have dwindled from around 50,000 to as few as 150 in the past few years.

Intelligence officials credit decisions by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to launch military offensives against Shiite militants in the southern parts of the country as deterring the group. An Iraqi intelligence official reports as many as 2,000 Mehdi Army fighters were killed in recent operations in Basra, Sadr City and the provincial capital of Maysan, Amarah.

"This led to the almost complete collapse of the army," the official said. Intelligence reports suggest many Sadr fighters also fled to neighboring Iran in the wake of the recent Iraqi military operations.

U.S. and Iraqi authorities, Gulf News reported, blame Iran for transporting weapons to the militia.

Intelligence officials said the latest operations in Maysan province would signal "the end of the Mehdi Army."

http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/06/26/mehdi_army_dissolving_reports_say/db62/

-- June 27, 2008 3:24 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara,

My wife commented this morning that CNN is trying to elect Obama. He's heavily favoured, so far, in the volume of coverage he receives, compared to McCain. I replied to her, "Good, let people have a good look at Obama, and they can make up their own minds".

The coverage on CNN so far has been pure puffery, as far as I can tell, the little I watch. No substantial issues discussed. Just the usual, Politics of Hype.

-- June 27, 2008 4:26 PM


Carole wrote:

Sara,

Thanks for Mc Cain/ marriage endorsement post...... he needs to keep on keepin on............drop the global warming crap and give decent Americans some hope that we have a contender that shares the MAJORITY VALUES!

With those values back on track and in place we can continue to be the great nation God intended us to be,,and the world will be affected in the most positive of ways.

Psst! HAVE YOU NOTICED THE DIFFERENT DIALECTS/ACCENTS OBAMA USES WITH DIFFERENT AUDIENCES?? JUST PICKED THIS UP YESTERDAY. SINCE HE IS NOW PANDERING TO THE MIDDLE WHITE FOLK....HE SOUNDS LIKE A PREPPY....NO DRAWL AR ALL!!!!


Carole

-- June 27, 2008 5:05 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts - Yes, it is all hype, as you said. And you may be right.. it DOES seem that the more they see of Obama, the less the public likes him!

Carole - You are welcome. Yes, he needs to drop the GW stuff.. he can just make it a non-priority. He KNOWS raising taxes is a stupid thing to do.. so hopefully he won't ruin the economy by raising GW taxes as Obama would do. See the second image below. :)

I found some political cartoons about Obama I thought I would share with you:

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pqx_0BA

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1caBhi

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gx1pzt9i

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gx1pzvEr

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pqx_850

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1caDMr

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pqx_aA9

Sara.

-- June 27, 2008 7:23 PM



Sara wrote:

Carole wrote: Thanks for Mc Cain/ marriage endorsement post...... he needs to keep on keepin on............drop the global warming crap and give decent Americans some hope that we have a contender that shares the MAJORITY VALUES!

Carole, my sister in Christ.. and others on the board,
Let us pray, take up the armor of God.. and STAND:

Eph 6:13 Therefore take up the whole armor of God, that you may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand.

Let us not be afraid.. and instead listen to our Lord - the Voice of Truth:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=KwsvqVmFV6Y

-- June 27, 2008 8:08 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

One more question.

If I understand your last post correctly, you seem to be saying, that there is some sort of high level financial manipulation going on, in regards to the US dollar, and that this involves finding a way to beat the Chinese, on trade. As I understand your position, the Americans, perhaps in collaboration with other governments, manipulated the price of crude oil, causing it to increase in value. As I understand this, what it would mean is that as a result of the increase in the price of oil, the American dollar fell in value. Is that right? And then America was able to pay off it's debts to China, with their currency, that was now valued much lower. Is that right? And then America gets to pay off it's debts much cheaper. Is that right? And also, as a result of this, because the American dollar is low, then perhaps American manufacturers would have a big advantage, because they could sell their goods, on the world markets cheaper, and American industry would be re-invigorated. Is that correct?

For all I know, that may very well be correct. But let me ask you this:

Right now, because of the increase in the price of oil, America is sending hundreds of billions of extra dollars, to the middle east, on top of the price of oil itself, as it was valued a couple of years ago. So if America is deliberately helping the price of petroleum to rise, as some sort of high level financial manipulation, then the economic value that America gets from that manipulation must be much higher, than the extra cost, of the increase in the price of oil, to make it worthwhile, right? Otherwise it wouldn't be worth it, right?

Well, if that's true, then America must be getting economic benefits in the trillions of dollars, to make it worthwhile, right? (Since the price of the increase in oil cost, which is hundreds of billions, quickly adds up to trillions, in a couple of years.)

And I should point out that those extra hundreds of billions of dollars per year, go to countries that for the most part, don't like America. And they have countries with radical elements on the extreme of their societies, who breed terrorists.

Also, you said Iran is part of this picture, and the Iranian regime may be changed. This would have a cost. I suppose then, if Iran is part of this picture, then Iraq must be, too. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, if America stays in Iraq till 2010, which is likely, then the cost of the Iraq War would be $1 trillion dollars. That's a lot of money. What a war with Iran would cost, would be anyone's guess.

So, if America is going to war, as part of some plan to manipulate currency, to gain economic advantage over China, then that plan is awful expensive. I hope it's worth it.

So, I don't know if you are right, or wrong on this. I really don't know. I guess what you said is one possibility, one theory. Maybe you're right. America does a little over $1 billion dollars, per day, trade, with Canada alone, last time I looked. So it could very well be worth it, manipulating currencies.

-- June 27, 2008 11:05 PM


Roger wrote:

Tim Bitts,

You got the scenario.

China is sitting on about 12 to 13 Trillion Dollars, well if you pay a trillion to get those back, that's a good deal.

Very good deal actually.

About your other question...where is the oil?

There is no lack of oil in this world, there is a lack in production and distribution, but not lack of oil in existing volume.

The lack of production can be subdivided into a lot of smaller categories.

Non developed resources, like in Alberta, Utah Colorado and a southern part of Wyoming together, consists of more oil than the known fields in the whole Middle east put together. This is a development weakness, something that Canada have been on the forefront, but US are way behind.

Non developed or non producing. Both Iran and Iraq, right now, are sitting on very large reserves of oil, both countries have a different political history, behind them, but the net result is that two of the three biggest reserves in this world are sitting very idle compared to their full capability.

So we have Saudi Arabia as the biggest, they are up and running, we have Iraq as the second biggest oil reserve, they are running an abysmal small volume, we have the third largest fields in the world, Iran, they have had 30 years of neglect, and are down in abysmal numbers as well.

There is no lack of oil.

Environmental concerns, in the US, 80% of all known oil reserve here, not the sandy stuff, but the liquid stuff, can not be touched because of environmental laws, or other restrictions that makes production impossible.

Venezuela, one of the worlds top producers, are going the same way with the stolen property ( read socialized oil industry, let the big oil companies come there and build it, then take it) as Saddam's Iraq, and the Religious fascists in Iran. Would they have modern equipment and a well served oil field, they would be running much higher production.

So no lack of oil.

Political instability. African coast have very much oil, a whole oil field shut down recently after a bunch of bandits, ( insurgents, guerrilla, criminals, take our pick) raided one facility recently.

Lack of distribution, we all want to have our SUVs but we really want the other county to have the refinery, so no refinery capacity will make up for a bottle neck.

If you also go online and check out where the new oil fields are found, you will find a daily bulletins of smaller sometimes bigger fields, ( last report of bigger fields was one big deep field in the Mexican gulf, and another newly discovered field in the North Sea.)

Russian oil. The amount of oil is somewhat obscure, as different numbers have been presented, Russia have proven to be a very unstable partner, in anything that has to do with cooperation, and have pulled of a recent take over, ( socialisation, theft, whatever) of a big Shell investment in Russia, broke all contracts, and booted out the company when it had all it's stuff installed, ready to go on line and produce. also, Russia have been acting a bit like a bully to his neighbours when it comes to oil or energy in general. ( Check out YouTube, Russian MiG 29 shooting down a Georgian drone over Georgia at the time Georgia and Russia was in dispute regarding oil, Russia also just closed the tap, and left Georgia dry until the dispute was resolved.

So, political instability, but the oil they are sitting on is huge huge fields.

No lack of oil there either.

Around the -70's, the boycott made long lines here at the pumps, and the same idea then as now was spread around, there is no oil, meaning the wells have gone dry. Bullshit. There is no lack of oil.

There is plenty of oil.

Granted, it is not an infinite source of energy, and it's use on the environment, is another chapter, but as far as how much there is down there. I would say it is a pretty big supply, but for sure, as it is finite, there is a need for saving, change into fuel efficient vehicles, better light bulbs, and so on, but as I said, that is another story. The restraint in oil, the prices we see, they can give any reason they like, for political purposes, for environmental purposes, for profits beyond belief, any reason they like.......but there is no lack of oil.

Ok to go back to the China / US economic situation.

China is a status country where "face" means everything, and as I stated in my earlier postings, AUDI, BMW, Mercedes is doing a killing there right now. IN fact AUDI is selling more of their sports cars to China than to any other place in the world, and the need for SUVs and other status cars are on a steep climb. It got to be big stuff, and it got to look important.

India , the other emerging country, not well organized, very chaotic, but on a steady climb in development, don't have the cultural need for SUVs. And is basically a politically heritage from Britain. Their transportation will most probably look like Europe, small compact fuel efficient cars.

So out of the two, India will be more economically sound as time goes by, as China are heading into its phase of "very thirsty".

China have two options. Play it by the rules, and set the currency to it's nominal value, (RV, thus making their goods much more expensive, slowing down their export, making their import cheaper, and thus start being a consumer country ( that we, the US can sell out stuff to, on an equal basis) Thus losing their Dollar reserve in proportion to how much they RV.

Or, stick with the current policy of having a drastically undervalued currency, and pay their ever increasing thirst in oil with the Dollars , that they are not circulating internally but are just sitting on.

There are a few other options as well, but they are unlikely, one would be that China will try to sell their Dollars for another currency, but they are sitting on such a big amount that they will by that act alone make the Dollar almost worthless, if they just throw it out on the market and take whatever they can get for it.

So they are sitting basically on a currency they can't sell. They can only use it for buying stuff from abroad, and what isn't a better deal to buy , for China, other than oil.

There are some smaller oil fields in China, but they are basically an oil dry country, and whatever they pump up will be peanuts compare with their need, so for all intents and purposes, unless they find a big field in the close future on their territory, they have to import.

China and Russia, are collaborating with the Russians, and a supply line is being built, but it doesn't matter for China, if the buyer is Russia or a Middle east country, because the flow is always going to be, oil, going into China, Chinese money(US Dollar), out from China.

Its the old saying, Money talks B..l S..t walks.

All the need for China will not be covered with the Russian pipeline, just partly, about as much as our internal oil production is helping us out here.

So, China sitting there with a thirsty country, with their hands full of American Dollars, where else can China go, well we have this wonderful oil in the Middle East, come and get it.

The effects of this operation, well we are seeing it right now, our economy is sluggish, mainly because of oil prices, but oil prices have been held lower then the adjustment for inflation for a long number of years.

From the late -70,s and to about 2000, we have more or less been given oil, that's how cheap it has been, so when the oil prices started to soar, we started from the point of being spoiled with cheap oil, and are comparing the oil with those prices.

Would oil have been compensated for inflation, we would have not been so worried about it as we are now.

I could buy regular unleaded, for under a Buck from the seventies, to just before the turn of the millennium.
(Same thing with tube TV's, the prices never seem to go up, they got in fact cheaper and cheaper, and now they are throwing them at you).

We, ( and thus the world) are in an adjustment period right now, we are able to adjust, China is state controlled, and have a really hard time seeing beyond the immediate needs.

Our adjustments, always hit us in unemployment ( we are still working in numbers that will astonish most European countries), and a pretty rapid inflation, it is a period where we have an idea that everything is going to be so expensive that we will be unable to live, but we will get through it, as we have gone through exactly the same thing over and over, it is a natural economic cycle.

It will hit us in foreclosures, (Most other countries, the population are living in big rental complexes)

We will get hit in fuel cost, (what... , do you own a car???)

And one more thing why we will beat China, in the long run, and come out on top of it all.

We all know that consumer goods have ended up in the hands of China, and have maybe an idea that they are doing something, and we are the victims of life, in one form or the other.

The idea is around that we are lagging in something. That we are nbr seven and are aiming for the Bronze. Not so.

No, there is a reason most of us are employed, there is a reason we have such a high number of workers actually working.

Who is the right now nbr 1. top producer in the world in, quantity, quality, and moneys worth of production.

USA.

-- June 28, 2008 1:05 AM


Valerio wrote:

Tim Bitts, Roger,
Another thing to consider is the impact of the high cost of oil on China. When the great American consumers are spending all their money on fuel, and energy, we don't have anything left to go to Walmart with to buy all the Chinese goods we would otherwise be buying from them. OPEC has been saying all along that supply is not the problem with oil prices, if thats true then is must be market manipulation. Are we being forced to kick our craving for the cheap chinese goods. That would sure change the trade balances now wouldn't it? Would this force China to release dollars from the dusty coffers? After all it is now taking a tremendous amount of dollars to trade oil at $142 a barrel. It has become obvious to me that the oil market is being manipulated to raise the price, the question is why, and to what purpose. While oil has increased 42% in the past year, natural gas has increased 75%. Whats up with that?

-- June 28, 2008 1:18 AM


Roger wrote:

Valerio,

If we are to get the Chinese monkey of our backs, we have to endure some pain ourselves.

Chinese stuff has, as you may have noticed, been higher priced lately, the price of fuel in China has been recently raised pretty substantially, and they are themselves facing a long line of very expensive infrastructure changes that a modern society demands.

Their roads must be improved in tune with the increased traffic, their work force have higher demands on wages, and consumer goods. The latest earth quake have changed around quite a few things in how people in China are acting and reacting.

It's suddenly "politically correct" in China to say how it is, and point out weaknesses in their system. A result of the Chinese govt quick response to the earth quake, in where they took in numerous rescue teams, from neighbouring countries.

Suddenly Japanese rescue workers was on the scene, suddenly all kind of media was on the scene, and the talk from the victims was overflowing the media on issues like poor housing, poor educational system and on and on.

The back seems to be broken for now, when it comes to criticising the authorities, the Chinese are back at it again.

China have the Olympics coming up very soon, and it is doubtful that there will be a government crackdown before that, but there have been a Tiananmen square once, so it is not something to rule out.

The Olympics will probably be the peak of the Chinese communist regime, but the regime has already started to hollow out, and in the next coming years China have a long line of very hard and costly issues to deal with, and energy is going to be the corner stone of which everything will rotate around.

They are screwing themselves everyday another AUDI is sold over there.

Their production of consumer goods have been up until now, so enormously ruthless, that very big areas of their country looks like Love Canal. The smog and pollution have reached such levels that it is in many areas it's now harmful to be, and China have a clean up act to get into, that will be very costly.

This is not only cars, but factories that are spewing out all kinds of chemicals in the closest river without any restrictions, chimneys that are spewing out pollutants, without even the simplest scrubbers.

If not external pressure will make them clean up, internal pressure will force them to do so. It has to come, and that means a complete rebuild of big sections of their factory facilities, regulating production to a cleaner format, all that will take more energy for them to run their factories.

Clean air and water regulations will have to very soon come into effect, and in the Chinese communist standard way, it will be enforced with rigor, as usually, by chopping the head off a couple of industrial leaders that ignored the laws.

So the Chinese have to invest a lot more into their own factories, in order to get them going, and on top of it all, they need to start to clean up the already heavy polluted rivers and lands that they up until now have just let the pollution run amok in to. That project alone involves very very large areas and many miles of river. That cost will be a substantial expense.

China are bent upon showing off as the best place in the world during the Olympics, and will most probably pull of a very good show, but that is the facade they are displaying, they have some really costly and deep problems ahead of them, as the working class have got the taste of McDonald's, cool sunglasses, and hot cars.

They got to fill up their tank when they take there new date on a ride.

They, not us are on the suicide path. The free trade capitalistic system that we enjoy, have a wonderful ability to self regulate to new circumstances. Each change have about the same fall out, in foreclosures and layoffs, but it will always naturally rebound into the new situation.

China, as evident on the issue of their extreme pollution only, have a very hard time to adjust, and change into changing scenarios.

They started to manipulate their cheating fraud scheme with their currency years and years back, and it have not changed, they were heading into a heavy industrialization, polluted but changed nothing, they headed into industrialisation but forgot where the fuel spigot is, and didn't change.

Endless pressure from the outer world about authors right, patents, or trademarks don't go anywhere, they copy what they see, and don't seem to change.

As long as you are not an individual, with free choice, you need an order, because if you get an order from above, you are not responsible for what may happen.

This is permeating the Chinese society, in many levels, change can not take place because someone stands up and demands it, it has to come from the chain of control, and that chain of control will not give up its position easy.

That top echelon, is the Chinese ruling party, the Chinese Communist Party.

And as long as they sit there, China will work itself into a corner, steadfast and hard.

And so far they are doing a great job doing just that.


-- June 28, 2008 4:57 AM


Carole wrote:

Roger, Tim, and all,

Great information.....thanks.

I still have the question...are the factories in China, US owned? If so, what percentage?

Again, it has been my understanding that our BIG companies invested in China factories due to cheap labor and tax advantages.

Look forward to answer.

Carole

-- June 28, 2008 5:37 AM


Sara wrote:

Interesting discussion about China and oil..
There may be a factor there, for sure.
However, I think that a lot of the oil price spike recently is to do with IRAN
QUOTING ARTICLE BELOW:

"Regarding the main route for exiting energy, Iran will definitely act to impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," Jafari said of the Gulf waterway through which about two-fifths of all globally traded oil passes.

Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices.

"After this action (of Iran imposing controls on the Gulf waterway), the oil price will rise very considerably and this is among the factors deterring the enemies," Jafari said.

"Israelis know if they take military action against Iran ... the abilities of the Islamic and Shi'ite world, especially in the region, will deliver fatal blows," Jafari said, adding that Israel was in range of Iranian missiles.

Jafari said U.S. forces were "more vulnerable than Israelis" because of their troops in the area. Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in the past said Iran would target U.S. interests if attacked.

===

Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
By Zahra Hosseinian Jan 28 2008

TEHRAN (Reuters) - The Revolutionary Guards said Iran would impose controls on shipping in the vital Gulf oil route if Iran was attacked and warned regional states of reprisals if they took part, a newspaper reported on Saturday.

Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets near $143 a barrel on Friday.

Speculation about a possible attack on Iran because of its disputed nuclear ambitions has risen since a report this month said Israel had practiced such a strike, prompting increasingly tough talk of retaliation, if pushed, from Tehran.

"Naturally every country under attack by an enemy uses all its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy," Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari told Jam-e Jam newspaper in some of the toughest language Iran has used so far.

Analysts say Iran may not match the firepower of U.S. forces but could still cause havoc in the region using unconventional tactics, such as deploying small craft to attack ships, or using allies in the area to strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.

"Regarding the main route for exiting energy, Iran will definitely act to impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," Jafari said of the Gulf waterway through which about two-fifths of all globally traded oil passes.

Iranian officials have in the past sent mixed signals about whether Iran would use oil as a weapon. But such threats, when made, have sent jitters through the crude market for fear of disrupting supplies from big OPEC producers in the Gulf.

The Islamic Republic insists its nuclear program is peaceful and aimed at generating electricity. But the West and Israel fear Iran is seeking to build atomic bombs. Israel is believed to be the only Middle East state with nuclear arms.

Washington has said it wants diplomacy to end the nuclear row but has not ruled out military action should that fail.

'RIGHT TO RESPOND'

"If there is a confrontation between us and the enemy from outside the region, definitely the scope (of the confrontation) will reach the oil issue," Jafari said.

The Revolutionary Guards are the ideologically driven wing of Iran's military with air, sea and land capabilities, and a separate command structure to regular units.

"After this action (of Iran imposing controls on the Gulf waterway), the oil price will rise very considerably and this is among the factors deterring the enemies," Jafari said.

He said any military action might "be able to delay Iran's nuclear activities but this delay will certainly be very short."

Jafari warned neighbors not to let their territory be used.

"If the attack takes place from the soil of another country ... the country attacked has the right to respond to the enemy's military action from where the operation started," he said.

Kuwait, the launchpad for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and Iraq itself, where U.S. troops are now stationed, have both said they would not let their land be used for a strike on Iran. The U.S. military has bases in other Gulf states and Afghanistan.

Jafari said U.S. forces were "more vulnerable than Israelis" because of their troops in the area. Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in the past said Iran would target U.S. interests if attacked.

"Iran can in different ways harm American interests even far away," the Guards commander said.

Jafari suggested Iran's allies in the region, who include Lebanon's Shi'ite militia Hezbollah, could also retaliate. He referred to Iran's ties with those living in Lebanon's Shi'ite heartland of south Lebanon but did not refer to any group.

"Israelis know if they take military action against Iran ... the abilities of the Islamic and Shi'ite world, especially in the region, will deliver fatal blows," Jafari said, adding that Israel was in range of Iranian missiles.

He also hinted that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that receives Iranian funding and which has sent suicide bombers into Israel, might act. But, again, he did not name the group.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080628/wl_nm/iran_guards_oil_dc;_ylt=AsaTdUotIhN4rZjlIYGfeT.bOrgF

-- June 28, 2008 10:15 AM


Sara wrote:

Quite a statistic.. that Asia accounts for half the global trade and GDP of the world..
no wonder McCain wants open markets and trade with HALF the world's economy.

===

U.S. direction in Asia hinges on Iraq: advisers
By Claudia Parsons
June 25, 2008

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Experts who advise presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama on East Asia say U.S. policy there hinges on resolution of the Iraq crisis, but disagree on how to go about that.

Michael Green, a former aide to U.S President George W. Bush who is now advising Republican hopeful McCain on Asia, said one of the biggest differences between the candidates was Iraq, where McCain says he will stay as long as necessary and Obama has pledged to start withdrawing troops.

Green said at the Japan Society seminar that a hasty withdrawal could create a vacuum in Iraq, drawing in Iran and spreading economic turmoil in Asia, as well as damaging U.S. credibility with its allies in Asia.

Goodman said ending the war in Iraq would help free up resources for a more proactive policy in Asia, which he said accounted for around half of global trade and global gross domestic product

Trade is another issue that divides the two candidates.

McCain favors and Obama opposes a trade deal negotiated by the Bush administration with Korea that has yet to be passed by lawmakers from both countries, and which has been mired in a dispute over ending a ban on U.S. beef imports to Korea.

Both advisers said on many issues the candidates policies were similar, for example on Myanmar, strengthening alliances with Japan and Korea, engaging with China and using diplomacy to stop North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons.

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?j1480833337

-- June 28, 2008 10:24 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq police find 7 bodies, suspected al Qaeda jail
June 28, 2008
By Sabah al-Bazee

SAMARRA, Iraq (Reuters) - Police raiding a suspected al Qaeda hide-out found a secret prison and the bodies of seven Iraqis bearing gunshot wounds and torture marks, Iraqi police said on Saturday.

Police said they believed the six men and one woman, only two of whom have so far been identified, had been kidnapped. There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military.

Police arrested 11 suspected al Qaeda members in the raid on a house in Benat al-Hassan, on the outskirts of Samarra, early on Saturday, said Captain Muthana Shakir, commander of Iraq's Rapid Intervention Force in Samarra, 100 km (62 miles) north of Baghdad.

They found a room sealed by a door with bars in it, marked "Sijin" -- Arabic for prison -- and the tortured body of the woman, who had been shot, lay inside.

"We found munitions, weapons, and inside the prison, the woman's body; in another room, the bodies of six men," Shakir said, adding that all showed signs of torture and bullet wounds.

Shakir said it was in keeping with the Sunni Arab group's Islamist philosophy to separate women and men. One of the dead men was a lawyer, he added.

No prisoners were found alive at the house.

There were no clashes during the raid. Police found all suspects sleeping when they stormed the building.

Al Qaeda's brutal tactics, including kidnappings and the routine torture and killings of hostages, have cost the Islamist group much of its popular support and were instrumental in persuading Sunni Arab tribal leaders to revolt against the militants with U.S. backing last year.

The U.S. military said on Saturday that U.S. and Iraqi forces had killed three militants, including an al Qaeda cell leader, and captured a dozen suspected militants in various operations in northern Iraq, where security forces are cracking down on what they say are the group's last strongholds.

Crackdowns by Iraqi and U.S. forces, with the cooperation of tribal leaders, have weakened al Qaeda, but officials say they are still capable of carrying out large-scale attacks.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080628/world/international_iraq_qaeda_dc

-- June 28, 2008 10:33 AM


Sara wrote:

Iraq says two dozen Shiite fighters have surrendered
Fri Jun 27, 2008

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Twenty-seven Shiite fighters have surrendered themselves in the southern province of Maysan since Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki gave them a seven-day deadline, a top Iraqi official said Friday.

Defence Ministry spokesman Major General Mohammed al-Askari told AFP that the militiamen had surrendered through their local tribal chiefs.

Maliki on Wednesday gave a seven-day deadline to militiamen to turn themselves in after he ordered a crackdown in Maysan and its capital city of Amara on June 19.

Before the start of the assault, he had given a four-day similar deadline to the fighters.

Since the operation began, some 150 people have been detained and large caches of weapons such as guns, mortars and landmines have been recovered, according to security officials.

Many of those detained are from the movement of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who has a strong following in Amara.

The Maysan operation follows similar military assaults by Iraqi troops, backed by US soldiers in the main southern port city of Basra and in the capital Baghdad.

Those assaults were launched in March and led to fierce gunbattles between security forces and militiamen, mainly from Sadr's Mahdi Army.

Hundreds of people were killed in the clashes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080627/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunrestmaysan

-- June 28, 2008 10:36 AM


Sara wrote:

US troops nab suspect in deadly Iraq suicide bombing
Fri Jun 27, 2008

BAGHDAD (AFP) - US troops captured a suspected Al-Qaeda militant on Friday who is believed to have been involved in a suicide bombing west of Baghdad that killed 25 people, three of them US marines, the military said.

"A man wanted for his alleged involvement in an Al-Qaeda cell in Anbar province identified himself to coalition forces during a precision operation targeting him Friday," the military said in a statement.

The bombing came just days ahead of the planned transfer of security in Anbar province from the US military to Iraqi forces.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080627/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunrestusanbararrest

-- June 28, 2008 10:41 AM


Tsalagi wrote:


Just the other day a new oil company was formed to control the Maysan area in southern Iraq. Now this "new policy" allows more decentralization of the oil empire of Al-Shahrastani, the oil Minister. His stance in the past has been to control all the oil from Baghdad....and it was his way or the highway. I may be reading too much between the lines but it sounds like the Kurds have kicked his arse over the fence and won their major argument regarding control of oil in their areas. I hope I'm correct and this gets them off dead center on the HCL.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Al-Shahrastani further noted that the Iraqi government would follow a new policy to establish similar oil companies in each province "if we succeeded in developing the fields available in those provinces, with a target production figure of 100,000 barrels per day."


http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidKUN0087080628001507

-- June 28, 2008 11:52 AM


Tsalagi wrote:


More information on the oil law (HCL). Looks positive for a solution!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New panel to iron out differences on Iraq oil law: Kurd leader
1 hour ago

ARBIL, Iraq (AFP) — Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Iraq have formed a new panel to resolve differences between them over a national oil law, a top Kurdish leader said on Saturday.

Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of northern Iraq's Kurdish government, said the committee would find a "joint solution" to the proposed energy law, which has yet to be approved by the national parliament.

The committee would include Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Barzani and other representatives of Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).

"This committee will hold a meeting next week in Baghdad, and if we feel there is a need for a technical committee ... that too would be formed," Barzani told reporters in Arbil, the capital of the Kurdish government.

Barzani was in Baghdad earlier this week to discuss the hydrocarbons law with Maliki.

In the past year, the Kurdish government has angered Baghdad by finalising its own energy law and signing contracts with global oil majors despite the absence of national oil legislation.

The law has been delayed in parliament over bitter differences among the assembly's Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers over the sharing of the revenues generated from oil sales.

Its establishment is seen as a key benchmark by a Washington aiming for national reconciliation among Iraq's communities.

Barzani said he was convinced during his visit to Baghdad that there were political and constitutional differences over the law but insisted that his government would adhere to the contracts with foreign companies.

"Probably there are opinions in Baghdad that say we have no constitutional right," he said referring to signing of the contracts by KRG.

"I want to confirm that what we do in Kurdistan is a constitutional right."

"Nobody in Baghdad has the right to cancel the oil contracts that Kurdistan government signed with the foreign companies," he said, adding that the issue of contracts was not discussed with Maliki.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hw4mYj8fJ9fZRQvJLGXMz8RXQs4w

-- June 28, 2008 3:54 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Tsalagi,

"O-si-yo and wa-do" for that information!

-- June 28, 2008 4:06 PM


Sara wrote:

Yes, ty, tsalagi.. great posts! :)

Sara.

-- June 28, 2008 7:17 PM


Tsalagi wrote:

Tim Bitts & Sara....

And a big Wa-do for your great posts also! I just hope the positive news keeps building up in Iraq....I want our President to be able to mark Iraq as a "done deal" prior to the US elections.

-- June 28, 2008 9:56 PM


Sara wrote:

LIARS' ROUND-UP - ON SECURITY, FACTS MATTER
June 28, 2008

THE facts about your security are being torn to shreds by activist liars. And they think that you're too stupid to know the difference. Let's lay out the worst current examples of media make-believe and election-year truth-trashing:

Whopper No. 1: America is less safe today than it was on Sept. 10, 2001. Oh, really? Where's the evidence? The Clinton years saw New York City attacked and Americans slaughtered by terrorists around the globe. Nothing was done to protect us.

And the true end of the Clinton era came on 9/11.

A record to be proud of.

Countless aspects of the Bush-Cheney administration deserve merciless criticism. But fair is fair: Since 9/11, we haven't suffered a single successful terrorist attack on our homeland. Not one.

Explain to me, please, how this shows we're less safe. What factual measurement applies, other than the absence of attacks?

God knows, the terrorists desperately wanted to strike our homeland. And they couldn't. Are we supposed to believe that was an accident?

Whopper No. 2: Al Qaeda is stronger than ever. Al Qaeda just suffered a strategic defeat in Iraq that may prove decisive. It can't launch attacks beyond its regional lairs. The cowardly Osama bin Laden can't show his face (remember his Clinton-era pep rallies?).

Yes, terrorists can still murder innocents on their home court. I personally prefer that to them killing Americans in Manhattan and Washington. Even in Iraq, al Qaeda's been beaten down to violent-fugitive status.

By what objective measurement is al Qaeda stronger today than it was when it had an entire country for its base and its tentacles reached all the way to Florida and the Midwest?

Whopper No. 3: Success in Iraq is an illusion - the surge failed. Folks, this is something only a New York Times columnist could believe.

Every single significant indicator, from Iraqi government progress through the performance of Iraqi security forces to the plummeting level of violence, has changed for the better - remarkably so.

If current trend-lines continue, it may not be long before Baghdad is safer for Iraqi citizens than the Washington-Baltimore metroplex is for US citizens. Iraq's government is working, its economy is booming - and its military has driven the concentrations of terrorists and militia from every one of Iraq's major cities.

And our troops are coming home. Where's the failure?

Whopper No. 4: Iran is stronger than ever. Tell that to the Iraqis, who've rejected Iranian meddling in their affairs, who've smashed the Iran-backed Shia militias and who didn't take long to figure out that Tehran's foreign policy was imperialist and anti-Arab.

The people of Iraq don't intend to trade Saddam for Ahmadinejad. Iran has lost in Iraq. At this point, all the Iranians can do is to kill a handful of innocent Iraqis now and then. Think that wins them friends and influence?

Whopper No. 5: The US-European relationship is a disaster. In fact, Washington and the major European capitals have built new, sturdier bridges to replace old ones that badly needed burning.

The Europeans grudgingly figured out that they need us - as we need them. The big break in 2003 cleared a lot of bad air (there was no break with Europe's young democracies). Relations today are sounder than they were in the fiddle-while-Rome-burns Clinton era.

Oh, and NATO has become a serious military alliance - fighting in Afghanistan, patrolling the high seas and conducting special operations against terrorists. The Germans announced this week that they're sending another thousand troops to Afghanistan. France is re-engaging with NATO's military side. Where's the disaster, mon ami?

Whopper No. 6: As president, Barack Obama would bring positive change to our foreign policy - and John McCain's too old to get it.

Hmm: Take a gander at Obama's senior foreign-policy advisers: Madeleine Albright (71), Warren Christopher (82), Anthony Lake (69), Lee Hamilton (77), Richard Clarke (57) . . .

If you added up their ages and fed the number into a time-machine, you'd land in Europe in the middle of the Black Death.

More important: These are the people whose watch saw the first attack on the World Trade Center, Mogadishu, Rwanda, the Srebrenica massacre, a pass for the Russians on Chechnya, the Khobar Towers bombing, the attacks on our embassies in Africa, the near-sinking of the USS Cole - oh, and the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

Their legacy climaxed on 9/11.

You couldn't assemble a team in Washington with more strategic failures to its credit.

Whopper No. 7: Our troops are all coming home as psychos victimized by their participation in military atrocities.

Tell it to the Marines.

Ralph Peters' new book is "Looking For Trouble."

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06282008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/liars_round_up_117549.htm

-- June 28, 2008 10:15 PM


Sara wrote:

History will say that we misunderestimated George W Bush
By Andrew Roberts
21/06/2008

As he leaves the White House at the end of his second term, the President has a poll rating of only 23 per cent, and is widely disliked and even despised. His foreign policy has been judged a failure, especially in view of the long, painful, costly war that he declared, which is still not over.

He doesn't get on with his own party's presidential candidate, who is clearly distancing himself, and had lost many of his closest friends and staff to scandals and forced resignations. The New Republic, a hugely influential political magazine, writes that his historical reputation will be as bad as that of President Harding, the disastrous president of the Great Depression.

I am writing, of course, about Harry S Truman, generally regarded today as one of the greatest of all the 43 presidents, and the man who set the United States on the course that ended decades later in the defeat of Communism.

If the West wins the modern counterpart of that struggle, the War Against Terror, historians will look back in amazement at the present unpopularity of George W Bush, and marvel at it quite as much as we now marvel at the 67 per cent disapproval rates for Truman throughout 1952.

Presidents are seldom remembered for more than one or two things; the rest slip away into a haze of historical amnesia. With Kennedy it was the Bay of Pigs and his own assassination, with Johnson the Great Society and Vietnam, with Nixon it was opening up China and the Watergate scandal, and so on.

George W Bush will be remembered for his responses to 9/11 in Afghanistan and Iraq, but since neither of those conflicts has yet ended in victory or defeat, it is far too early categorically to assume - as left-wingers, anti-war campaigners and almost all media commentators already do - that his historical reputation will be permanently down in the doldrums next to poor old Warren Harding's.

I suspect that historians of the future will instead see Bush's decision to insist upon a "surge" of reinforcements being sent into Iraq, combined with a complete change of anti-insurgency tactics as configured by General Petraeus, as the moment when the conflict was turned around there, in the West's favour.

No one - least of all Bush himself - denies that mistakes were made in the early days after the (unexpectedly early) fall of Baghdad, and historians will quite rightly examine them. But once the decades have put the stirring events of those years into their proper historical context, four great facts will emerge that will place Bush in a far better light than he currently enjoys.

The overthrow and execution of a foul tyrant, Saddam Hussein; the liberation of the Afghan people from the Taliban; the smashing of the terrorist networks of al-Qa'eda in that country and elsewhere and, finally, the protection of the American people from any further atrocities on US soil since 9/11, is a legacy of which to be proud.

While of course every individual death is a tragedy to the bereaved families, these great achievements have been won at a cost in human life a fraction the size of any past world-historical struggle of this magnitude.

The number of American troops killed and wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan is equivalent to the losses they endured - for a nation only a little over half the size in the mid-Forties - capturing a single island from the Japanese in the Pacific War.

British losses of 103 killed over seven years in Afghanistan bears comparison to a quiet weekend on the Western Front in the Great War, or the numbers the Army loses in traffic accidents in peacetime. History can lend a wider overall perspective to what are nonetheless, of course, immeasurably sad events.

History will also shine an unforgiving light on those ludicrous conspiracy theories that claim that the Iraq War was fought for any other reason than to implement the 14 UN resolutions that Saddam that had been flouting for 13 years.

The CIA and MI6 believed, like almost every other intelligence agency in the world, that Saddam had WMD, and the "Harmony" documents seized and translated since the fall of his regime make it abundantly clear that he was also supporting almost every anti-Western terrorist organisation imaginable.

Historians will appreciate how any War Against Terror that allowed Saddam to remain in place would have been an absurd travesty.

When the rise of al-Qa'eda is considered by historians like Philip Bobbitt and William Shawcross, it will be President Clinton's repeated refusal to act effectively in the 1990s, rather than President Bush's tough response after 9/11, that will be held up as culpable.

Judging by the rise in the value of the Iraqi dinar, the huge drop in the number of Iraqi deaths in the insurgency, the number of provinces now cleansed of al-Qa'eda, and the level of arms confiscations by the Iraqi Army in Sadr City, the new American "clear and hold" tactics have succeeded far better than the cynics ever thought possible even 12 months ago.

Give Iraq five, ten or twenty years, and Bush's decision to undertake the surge - courageously taken in the face of all bien pensant and "expert" opinion on both sides of the Atlantic - will rank alongside some of Harry Truman's great decisions of 1945-53.

If that happens, the time will come when George W Bush will be able to say what Lord Salisbury called the four cruellest yet sweetest words in the English language: "I told you so."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/22/do2201.xml

-- June 28, 2008 10:49 PM


Phantom wrote:

What do you folks think of this? Could it cause the heavens to be "rolled up like a scroll"?

Scientists: Nothing to fear from atom-smasher

By DOUGLAS BIRCH, Associated Press Writer Sat Jun 28, 3:08 PM ET

MEYRIN, Switzerland - The most powerful atom-smasher ever built could make some bizarre discoveries, such as invisible matter or extra dimensions in space, after it is switched on in August.
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click here

But some critics fear the Large Hadron Collider could exceed physicists' wildest conjectures: Will it spawn a black hole that could swallow Earth? Or spit out particles that could turn the planet into a hot dead clump?

Ridiculous, say scientists at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French initials CERN — some of whom have been working for a generation on the $5.8 billion collider, or LHC.

"Obviously, the world will not end when the LHC switches on," said project leader Lyn Evans.

David Francis, a physicist on the collider's huge ATLAS particle detector, smiled when asked whether he worried about black holes and hypothetical killer particles known as strangelets.

"If I thought that this was going to happen, I would be well away from here," he said.

The collider basically consists of a ring of supercooled magnets 17 miles in circumference attached to huge barrel-shaped detectors. The ring, which straddles the French and Swiss border, is buried 330 feet underground.

The machine, which has been called the largest scientific experiment in history, isn't expected to begin test runs until August, and ramping up to full power could take months. But once it is working, it is expected to produce some startling findings.

Scientists plan to hunt for signs of the invisible "dark matter" and "dark energy" that make up more than 96 percent of the universe, and hope to glimpse the elusive Higgs boson, a so-far undiscovered particle thought to give matter its mass.

The collider could find evidence of extra dimensions, a boon for superstring theory, which holds that quarks, the particles that make up atoms, are infinitesimal vibrating strings.

The theory could resolve many of physics' unanswered questions, but requires about 10 dimensions — far more than the three spatial dimensions our senses experience.

The safety of the collider, which will generate energies seven times higher than its most powerful rival, at Fermilab near Chicago, has been debated for years. The physicist Martin Rees has estimated the chance of an accelerator producing a global catastrophe at one in 50 million — long odds, to be sure, but about the same as winning some lotteries.

By contrast, a CERN team this month issued a report concluding that there is "no conceivable danger" of a cataclysmic event. The report essentially confirmed the findings of a 2003 CERN safety report, and a panel of five prominent scientists not affiliated with CERN, including one Nobel laureate, endorsed its conclusions.

Critics of the LHC filed a lawsuit in a Hawaiian court in March seeking to block its startup, alleging that there was "a significant risk that ... operation of the Collider may have unintended consequences which could ultimately result in the destruction of our planet."

One of the plaintiffs, Walter L. Wagner, a physicist and lawyer, said Wednesday CERN's safety report, released June 20, "has several major flaws," and his views on the risks of using the particle accelerator had not changed.

On Tuesday, U.S. Justice Department lawyers representing the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation filed a motion to dismiss the case.

The two agencies have contributed $531 million to building the collider, and the NSF has agreed to pay $87 million of its annual operating costs. Hundreds of American scientists will participate in the research.

The lawyers called the plaintiffs' allegations "extraordinarily speculative," and said "there is no basis for any conceivable threat" from black holes or other objects the LHC might produce. A hearing on the motion is expected in late July or August.

In rebutting doomsday scenarios, CERN scientists point out that cosmic rays have been bombarding the earth, and triggering collisions similar to those planned for the collider, since the solar system formed 4.5 billion years ago.

And so far, Earth has survived.

"The LHC is only going to reproduce what nature does every second, what it has been doing for billions of years," said John Ellis, a British theoretical physicist at CERN.

Critics like Wagner have said the collisions caused by accelerators could be more hazardous than those of cosmic rays.

Both may produce micro black holes, subatomic versions of cosmic black holes — collapsed stars whose gravity fields are so powerful that they can suck in planets and other stars.

But micro black holes produced by cosmic ray collisions would likely be traveling so fast they would pass harmlessly through the earth.

Micro black holes produced by a collider, the skeptics theorize, would move more slowly and might be trapped inside the earth's gravitational field — and eventually threaten the planet.

Ellis said doomsayers assume that the collider will create micro black holes in the first place, which he called unlikely. And even if they appeared, he said, they would instantly evaporate, as predicted by the British physicist Stephen Hawking.

As for strangelets, CERN scientists point out that they have never been proven to exist. They said that even if these particles formed inside the Collider they would quickly break down.

When the LHC is finally at full power, two beams of protons will race around the huge ring 11,000 times a second in opposite directions. They will travel in two tubes about the width of fire hoses, speeding through a vacuum that is colder and emptier than outer space.

Their trajectory will be curved by supercooled magnets — to guide the beams around the rings and prevent the packets of protons from cutting through the surrounding magnets like a blowtorch.

The paths of these beams will cross, and a few of the protons in them will collide, at a series of cylindrical detectors along the ring. The two largest detectors are essentially huge digital cameras, each weighing thousands of tons, capable of taking millions of snapshots a second.

Each year the detectors will generate 15 petabytes of data, the equivalent of a stack of CDs 12 miles tall. The data will require a high speed global network of computers for analysis.

Wagner and others filed a lawsuit to halt operation of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, or RHIC, at the Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York state in 1999. The courts dismissed the suit.

The leafy campus of CERN, a short drive from the shores of Lake Geneva, hardly seems like ground zero for doomsday. And locals don't seem overly concerned. Thousands attended an open house here this spring.

"There is a huge army of scientists who know what they are talking about and are sleeping quite soundly as far as concerns the LHC," said project leader Evans.

-- June 29, 2008 1:28 AM


Carole wrote:

Phantom,

Very interesting, and sounds pretty scientific, yet scary.


My only comment would be that, scripture tells us that when Jesus comes to take His church and His saints from the planet, it is called The Rapture. Millions and millions will disappear ....in the twinkling of an eye.....

The World will become extremely chaotic. One might project that this event would be explained to the world as this cataclysmic celestial event.

There will be those who will know differently, even though left behind. Others will find it easier to believe in some scientific explanation rather than to believe their Creator who has delared this event since the beginning of life as we know it.

Much to many's opinion, scripture DOES NOT contradict science, rather validates it.

Carole

-- June 29, 2008 3:16 AM


Roger wrote:

CERN accelerator,

Nowadays we have more and more flat screen TV,s but may may still have tube TV's.

In a tube TV, we have a particle accelerator shooting particles continuously against a luminance screen.

We shoot a particle from a particle gun, and control the beam or path by magnets around the tube, so the particles will paint a picture for us.

A particle accelerator is basically the same thing, with the difference that the particle is controlled in a loop by magnets ( the same way as in the TV), and the particles are then racing around and around.

Make another loop of particles doing the same thing, but in the opposite direction and let the particles meet somewhere in a place where the collision can be observed and measured, and you have a particle collider. It is fully possible to build a small particle collider for 100 bucks or less, in your own backyard, ( and many have done so).

Black holes exist because of gravity.

Gravity exist because of mass.

Mass and energy is directly interchangeable (Shoot a ball bearing with a couple of thousand feet a seconds speed against a solid piece of metal, and you will see fireworks, and nothing left of the ball bearing, all it's mass converted into a nice fireball, meteorites entering the atmosphere do the same.)

A particle collider will take a particle ( mass) and shoot it against another particle (mass) and watch the effect of the collision, either released energy, or the particles split into even smaller elements. So it is going from mass into energy.

Mass an energy have gravity but the energy released from one particular source ( ball bearing, positron, electron, whatever) will disperse radiantly, thus any gravity will diminish at the same rate as the energy disperses.

In order to make a black hole, you need to compact things, either collect matter or energy to a focal point where it will collect and stay, not disperse things.

Physics on this planet under the control of human beings are not developed up to the point where we can make matter out of energy.

We have learned how to split and fuse particles and take energy out of it, but we are unable to do the reverse.

The amount of matter needed to make a black hole is immense.

Matter that is concentrated will have stronger gravity close to its surface than the same amount of matter that is dispersed.

That is one of the reasons that the gravity, is about the same as on earth, if we were able to stand on Uranus or Neptune, Compact the same mass as Uranus and Neptune into an earth size sphere and stand on it and you would be perhaps ten times heavier, you now have increased the gravity.

If earth would be compressed into such a small volume that a black hole would occur, you need to compress all the matter in this earth to a size of about 12 or 13 mm in diameter.

If you wold be able to compress all the matter on this planet to this size, you would actually get a black hole, a small 12 or 13 mm black hole.

If you are afraid of black holes spewing out of the CERN accelerator, you must first show me where the needed mass is suppose to come from.

Phantom, if you would know what you were posting you would not post garbage, but I guess if there is an area of not knowing, than any data is as important as any other data.

The world will go under when the ice melts in fifty years, a new virus can mutate into a world killer, how coffee will undermine mental capacity, and super Anthrax with no cure stolen by terrorists, is about as alarming to tell us how the world will go under if a mysterious machine is about to swallow the earth if it is started.

-- June 29, 2008 4:06 AM


Roger wrote:

Tsalagi,

I have a little bit different take.

All oil is controlled 100% by the Iraqi state, no matter who is processing it.

All Iraqi companies have in the past been completely socialised in Iraq, so are their state oil companies.

The Iraqi state have made perfectly clear after the independence, that the Iraqi state have no intention to house companies, and continue to be a socialistic state.

You will find some companies that today are independent, and are on the ISX stock exchange, they are still partly owned by the state, but the majority of the stocks are not state.

When it comes to the oil, and its companies, in that case I am very reluctant to believe that the state will let go, and I bet that it will stay in 100% control (well to have 100% control, you actually only need 51% of the shares, you can still get 49% financing from private parties)

I have been talking with a pretty big investor lately that have been in Iraq that have talked with the management of the currently state owned companies, in other fields, like steel, concrete and building supplies, that supposedly are going to break out from being state owned, into independent companies.

This will probably not start to happen until about late next or even the year after, according to him.

The existing monopoly, of Iraq oil companies, will break up, and be diverted into a couple of smaller units, each one competing, and the Iraqi state will have a good hook into those new companies.

My take why Iraq is setting up a series of independent oil companies are basically this, this might or might not be true, but looking at what is happening over there, it is pretty obvious.

The now state controlled oil company probably have higher up members sitting on the board, as executives and other positions that by contract is very hard to break. It is more or less, state life long posts. ( States have a tendency to appoint such posts, independent companies....never)

The current Iraqi state oil company must, in my estimation, be very very corrupt.

It is an impossibility for a company to have 1/4 of its products shop lifted every day, week, month and year...after year, without a lot of people in the state owned company being payed off.

Iraqi oil have been shop lifted, by the volume of about 1/4 of it's production every time an oil pump bobs. ( figuratively speaking , they have no bobbing pumps over there, the oil is fed to the surface with pressure.)

So the state are then sitting on an institution that are stealing from the state itself, and with members of the same institution in a work position that is hard to fire.

So it seems to be very simple, create a couple of new companies, create two, or three of them, and let them have good oil contracts, let the old company wither on it's wine, and the new companies will do all the Iraqi state oil production.

Make the company responsible for the oil, that it is not stolen, and if it is, the other state company will take over.

That will ensure that the theft of the oil, almost taken for granted as a perk, in the past, will stop.

-- June 29, 2008 4:37 AM


Roger wrote:

Sara,

Its a bit old article, but a very good one.

Iran have had the same rhetoric for 30 years.

Iran is in itself not the reason for the oil prices as they are right now, we have had very high and very low oil prices during the last 30 years, while Iran have been there the whole time, saying, doing, threatening and terrorized, any and all that have different views than they have.

Iran is like the PKK, the Kurdish guerrilla, an institution that have lived out it's use, lived out its purpose, and are scheduled for removal.

It's like an old abandoned house, no longer fit for its original purpose, scheduled for demolition because a freeway will be built straight through it.

Sara, the planners are way way ahead of it, that article with Iran chatter means squat.

Of course some oil brokers that want as much out of it as possible take any reason they can get to increased the price. One of the most ridiculous reasons happened a couple of years back, when oil went up because of the ANTICIPATION of a big storm in the Atlantic at the time.

I honestly believe that the idea is to turn Iran into what Iraq is, and from there incorporate Iran into the new energy hub.

That means:

Threat of nuclear destruction of Israel, or US cities, will be removed.

The second largest oil reserve, and the third largest oil reserve will be in one package.

The Gulf will be secured.

Russia, and China's meddling into Iran will be denied.

Iran will go back to the "Oil Dollar".

Iraq will be secured from infiltration, stabilizing Iraq.

Western oil companies will get into Iran as well.

China can not buy oil from a US enemy no more. (Financing the enemy)

China and Russia will probably have as hard time getting into Iran, in Iran's rebuilding phase, and oil production, as they are having getting into Iraq, in Iraq's rebuild phase, and Iraq's oil production.

US will probably get a full load of intelligence data, much, not too good for Russia and China.

Terrorist funding of Hamas and Hezbollah will cease, weapons made in Iran against Israel will cease to be delivered to the same organizations, weapon education and technical instruction to the same organizations will cease.

Iran will be a friendly country to us, and we will be able to have a lot of agreements with them on many fronts, business, military, energy.

The oil pumps in Iran can start churning out some serious volumes again.

Iran and Iraq, will them together, have more oil out put than Saudi Arabia alone, and Saudi Arabia can not determine alone oil prices depending on their ideas about what is good or bad.

Syria will lose its only real alley.

Terrorists controlling land will shrink from two places, The whole country of Iran, and northern Pakistan, to ONE place only, northern Pakistan.

The list can be made much longer, but on those issues alone, the deal is just too sweet to pass.

Iran's regime will go.

-- June 29, 2008 6:34 AM


Carole wrote:

Gosh Roger!

Wouldn't the whole world sleep allot easier if your scenarios were right and played out?

What are the chances I wonder? I guess time will tell, but I sure hope you have called it right!

Also, would a thermonuclear explosion cause a compression of matter to release the energy needed for the Black Hole theory?


Carole

-- June 29, 2008 10:48 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

Are you Phantom?

Tsalagi,
O-si-yo! You have a very nice Cherokee name!

-- June 29, 2008 11:42 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Both sides in the Debate on Peak Oil:

Roger and I were debating whether there was lots of oil left, in the world. Some people believe the world is running out of oil. That's where the name: Peak Oil comes from. It's a peak on a graph that shows oil production worldwide. Once you get to the peak, then petroleum production declines, causing massive problems. Other people believe the whole thing is a scam, cooked up by the elites. Here's two sides. You decide who to believe:

Side 1:

The Myth Of Peak Oil

Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones | October 12 2005

Peak oil is a scam designed to create artificial scarcity and jack up prices while giving the state an excuse to invade our lives and order us to sacrifice our hard-earned living standards.

Publicly available CFR and Club of Rome strategy manuals from 30 years ago say that a global government needs to control the world population through neo-feudalism by creating artificial scarcity. Now that the social architects have de-industrialized the United States, they are going to blame our economic disintegration on lack of energy supplies.

Globalization is all about consolidation. Now that the world economy has become so centralized through the Globalists operations, they are going to continue to consolidate and blame it on the West's "evil" overconsumption of fossil fuels, while at the same time blocking the development and integration of renewable clean technologies.

In other words, Peak oil is a scam to create artificial scarcity and drive prices up. Meanwhile, alternative fuel technologies which have been around for decades are intentionally suppressed.

Peak oil is a theory advanced by the elite, by the oil industry, by the very people that you would think peak oil would harm, unless it was a cover for another agenda. Which from the evidence of artificial scarcity being deliberately created, the reasons for doing so and who benefits, it’s clear that peak oil is a myth and it should be exposed for what it is. Another excuse for the Globalists to seize more control over our lives and sacrifice more American sovereignty in the meantime.

The lies of artificial scarcity

The crux of the issue is that if oil was plentiful in areas in which we are being told by the government and the oil companies that it is not, then we have clear evidence that artificial scarcity is being simulated in order to drive forward a myriad of other agendas. And we have concrete examples of where this has happened.

Three separate internal confidential memos from Mobil, Chevron and Texaco have been obtained by The Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights.

These memos outline a deliberate agenda to gouge prices and create artificial scarcity by limiting capacities of and outright closing oil refineries. This was a nationwide lobbying effort led by the American Petroleum Institute to encourage refineries to do this.

An internal Chevron memo states; "A senior energy analyst at the recent API convention warned that if the US petroleum industry doesn't reduce its refining capacity it will never see any substantial increase in refinery margins."

The Memos make clear that blockages in refining capacity and opening new refineries did not come from environmental organizations, as the oil industry claimed, but via a deliberate policy of limitation and price gouging at the behest of the oil industry itself.

The mystery of Eugene Island 330 and self-renewing oil supplies

Eugene Island is an oil field in the gulf of Mexico, 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana. It was discovered in 1973 and began producing 15,000 barrels of oil a day which then slowed to about 4,000 barrels in 1989.

But then for no logical reason whatsoever, production spiked back up to 13,000 barrels a day.

What the researchers found when they analyzed the oil field with time lapse 3-D seismic imaging is that there was an unexplained deep fault in the bottom corner of the computer scan, which showed oil gushing in from a previously unknown deep source and migrating up through the rock to replenish the existing supply.

Furthermore, the analysis of the oil now being produced at Eugene Island shows that its age is geologically different from the oil produced there after the refinery first opened. Suggesting strongly that it is now emerging from a different, unexplained source.

The last estimates of probable reserves shot up from 60 million barrels to 400 million barrels.

Both the scientists and geologists from the big oil companies have seen the evidence and admitted that the Eugene Island oil field is refilling itself.

This completely contradicts peak oil theory and with technology improving at an accelerating pace it seems obvious that there are more Eugene Islands out there waiting to be discovered. So the scientific community needs to embrace these possibilities and lobby for funding into finding more of these deep source replenishing oilfields.

The existence of self-renewing oil fields shatters the peak oil myth. If oil is a naturally replenishing inorganic substance then how can it possibly run out?

The future of oil

This year in particular we have seen a strong hike in oil prices and are being told to simply get used to it because this is the way it is going to be. In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita gas prices have shot up amid claims of vast energy shortages. Americans are being asked to turn off lights, change thermostat settings, drive slower, insulate homes and take other steps. Meanwhile the oil companies continue to make record profits.

Flying in the face of the so called peak oil crisis are the facts. If we are running out of oil so quickly then why are reserves being continually increased and production skyrocketing?

In the 1980s OPEC decided to switch to a quota production system based on the size of reserves. The larger the reserves a country said it had the more it could pump.

Earlier this year Saudi Arabia reportedly increased its crude reserves by around 200 billion barrels. Saudi oil Is secure and plentiful, say officials.

“These huge reserves enable the Kingdom to remain a major oil producer for between 70 and 100 years, even if it raises its production capacity to 15 million barrels per day, which may well happen during the next 15 years,”

Is this the normal course of behavior if we are currently at the peak for oil production? The answer is no, it's the normal course of action for increasing production.

There have also been reports that Russia has vastly increased its reserves even beyond those of Saudi Arabia. Why would they do this if they believed there would be no more oil to get hold of? It seems clear that Russia is ready for unlimited future production of oil.

There is a clear contradiction between the peak oil theory and the continual increase in oil reserves and production.

New untapped oil sources are being discovered everywhere on earth. The notion that there are somehow only a few sources that the West is trying to monopolize is a complete myth, promulgated by those raking in the massive profits. After all how do you make huge profits from something available in abundance?

A Wall Street Journal article by Peter Huber and Mark Mills describes how the price of oil remains high because the cost of oil remains so low. We are not dependent on the middle east for oil because the world's supplies are diminishing, it is because it is more profitable to tap middle east supplies. Thus the myth of peak oil is needed in order to silence the call for tapping the planet's other plentiful reserves.

Richard Branson has even stated his intention to set up his own refinery because the price of oil is artificially being kept high whilst new sources are not being explored and new refineries not being built.

"Opec is effectively an illegal cartel that can meet happily, nobody takes them to court," Branson has said. "They collude to keep prices high."

So if more refineries were built and different resources tapped, the oil prices would come down and the illegal cartel OPEC would see profits diminish. It is no wonder then that the argument for peak oil is so appealing to OPEC. If no one invests to build refineries because they don't believe there is enough oil, then who benefits? OPEC and the oil elites of course.

It seems that every time there is some kind of energy crisis, OPEC INCREASES production. The remarkable thing about this is that they always state that they are doing it to ease prices, yet prices always shoot up because they promulgate the myth that they are putting some of their last reserves into the market. Analysts seem confused and always state that they don't believe upping production will cut prices.

In a recent report the International Monetary Fund projected that global demand for oil by 2030 would reach 139 million barrels a day, a 65 percent increase.

"We should expect to live with high and volatile oil prices," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist. "In short, it's going to be a rocky road going forward."

Yet independent analysts and even some within OPEC seem to believe that the demand for oil is diminishing. Why the contradiction?

The peak oil and demand myth is peddled by the establishment-run fake left activist groups, OPEC and globalist arms such as the IMF.

Rolling Stone magazine even carried an article in its April issue heavily biased towards making people believe the peak oil lie.

The Scientific evidence also flies in the face of the peak oil theory. Scientific research dating back over a hundred years, more recently updated in a Scientific Paper Published In 'Energia' suggests that oil is abiotic, not the product of long decayed biological matter. Oil, for better or for worse, is not a non-renewable resource. It, like coal, and natural gas, replenishes from sources within the mantle of earth.

No coincidence then that the Russians, who pioneered this research have pumped expenditure into deep underground oil excavation.

We have previously scientifically exposed the scam behind peak oil. Here is a 1 hour+ audio clip featuring Alex Jones' comments on peak oil and then the analysis of respected scientific commentator Dr. Nick Begich who presents evidence to suggest the idea of Peak oil is artificial.

A dangerous fallout precedent being set is that people on both the left and right believe wars are being fought in order to tap the last reserves of oil on the planet. The "coalition of the willing", whoever they may be for any given war, will not pay particular attention to refuting this claim because it allows them a reason to start and continue said war.

Even though many will see it as immoral, many will subconsciously attach it as a reason for the war. In reality the war is purely for profit, power and control, oil can be a part of that, but only if the peak oil claim is upheld.

If we continue to let the corrupt elite tell us we are wholly dependent on oil, we may reach a twisted situation whereby they can justify starvation and mass global poverty, perhaps even depopulation, even within the western world due to the fact that our energy supplies are finished.

Peak oil is just another weapon the globalists have in their arsenal to move towards a new world order where the elite get richer and everyone else falls into line.

Side 2:

You have to wonder about the judgment of
a man who writes, “As I drive by those
smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike,
I want to roll the windows down
and inhale deeply.” But for Kenneth S.
Deffeyes, that’s the smell of home. The
son of a petroleum engineer, he was born
in Oklahoma, “grew up in the oil patch,”
became a geologist and worked for Shell
Oil before becoming a professor at
Princeton University. And he still knows
how to wield a 36-inch-long pipe wrench.
In Hubbert’s Peak, Deffeyes writes
with good humor about the oil business,
but he delivers a sobering message: the
100-year petroleum era is nearly over.
Global oil production will peak sometime
between 2004 and 2008, and the
world’s production of crude oil “will fall,
never to rise again.” If Deffeyes is right—
and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing
global thirst for oil—energy
prices will soar and economies will be
plunged into recession as they desperately
search for alternatives.
It’s tempting to dismiss Deffeyes as
just another of the doomsayers who have
been predicting, almost since oil was discovered,
that we are running out of it.
But Deffeyes makes a persuasive case that
this time it’s for real. This is an oilman
and geologist’s assessment of the future,
grounded in cold mathematics. And it’s
frightening.
Deffeyes’s prediction is based on the
work of M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist
who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil
production would peak in the early 1970s
and then begin to decline. Hubbert was
dismissed by many experts inside and
outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and
anti-Hubbert factions arose and persisted
until 1970, when U.S. oil production
peaked and started its long decline.
The Hubbert method is based on the
observation that oil production in any region
follows a bell-shaped curve. Production
increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest
and most readily accessible oil is recovered.
As the difficulty of extracting the
oil increases, it becomes more expensive
and less competitive with other fuels. Production
slows, levels off and begins to fall.
Hubbert demonstrated that total U.S.
oil production in 1956 was tracing the
upside of such a curve. To know when
the curve would most likely peak, however,
he had to know how much oil remained
in the ground. Underground reserves
provide a glimpse of the future:
when the rate of new discoveries does not
keep up with the growth of oil production,
the amount of oil remaining underground
begins to fall. That’s a tip-off that
a decline in production lies ahead.
Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated
version of the Hubbert method to
make the global calculations. The numbers
pointed to 2003 as the year of peak
production, but because estimates of
global reserves are inexact, Deffeyes settled
on a range from 2004 to 2008.
Three things could upset Deffeyes’s
prediction. One would be the discovery of
huge new oil deposits. A second would be
the development of drilling technology
that could squeeze more oil from known reserves. And a third would be a steep rise
in oil prices, which would make it profitable
to recover even the most stubbornly
buried oil.
In a delightfully readable and informative
primer on oil exploration and
drilling, Deffeyes addresses each point.
First, the discovery of new oil reserves is
unlikely—petroleum geologists have
been nearly everywhere, and no substantial
finds have been made since the 1970s.
Second, billions have already been
poured into drilling technology, and it’s
not going to get much better. And last,
even very high oil prices won’t spur
enough new production to delay the inevitable
peak.
“This much is certain,” he writes.
“No initiative put in place starting today
can have a substantial effect on the peak
production year. No Caspian Sea exploration,
no drilling in the South China Sea,
no SUV replacements, no renewable energy
projects can be brought on at a sufficient
rate to avoid a bidding war for the
remaining oil.”
The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to
move as quickly as possible to alternative
fuels—including natural gas and nuclear
power, as well as solar, wind and geothermal
energy. “Running out of energy
in the long run is not the problem,” Deffeyes
explains. “The bind comes during
the next 10 years: getting over our dependence
on crude oil.”
The petroleum era is coming to a
close. “Fossil fuels are a one-time gift that
lifted us up from subsistence agriculture
and eventually should lead us to a future
based on renewable resources,” Deffeyes
writes. Those are strong words for a man
raised in the oil patch. For the rest of us,
the end of the world’s dependence on oil
means we need to make some tough political
and economic choices. For Deffeyes,
it means he can’t go home again.
Paul Raeburn covers science and energy
for Business Week and is the author of
Mars: Uncovering the Secrets of the Red
Planet (National Geographic, 1998).


HUBBERT’S PEAK:
THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL
SHORTAGE
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Princeton University Press,
2001 ($24.95)
REVIEWS
www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 91
BETH PHILLIPS (above); AP PHOTO (right)
The End of Oil

-- June 29, 2008 4:13 PM


Tim Bitts wrote:

Roger,

If the world really has lots of oil, as you say, it's sure fooling a lot of well-informed people. People like long time friend of George W. Bush, and Republican supporter, T.Boone Pickens. He's a geologist, who knew enough about oil, that he made $3 billion dollars at it. And it says on his company website that he believes the world has reached "Peak Oil". And guess where he's now putting his money? Alternative energy. He's building the world's largest wind farm in Texas.

Which is a mighty strange thing to do, if the world has lots of oil.

-- June 29, 2008 7:32 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

Just to clarify something,

Part of your argument that there is lots of oil, rests on the proposition that there is lots of oil present, in the United States. To some degree, that is true, There is a lot of oil, in the United States. Shale oil, is what I think you were referring to, when you said there was a lot of oil in Utah, Colorodo, and Wyoming. There is, in fact, as you say, lots and lots of oil there. But there's a catch.

It's incredibly expensive to develop, right now. Shell has some ideas on creating freeze walls, inside shale formations, and then inserting heating rods into the shale, to chemically change the shale, to make it more affordable to extract. Again, very very costly, with untested technology.

And, you mentioned Alberta. Again, the catch is, cost and complexity. I said last time, that production costs were $30 per barrel, in Alberta. But there's more to it that that. Alberta crude is second rate. So it's discounted by the market, by about 25-30 dollars. The reason is, it costs a lot more money to refine this 2nd rate crude. So, oil must stay at least at $60 a barrel, just to break even on Alberta crude. Now, oil has never stayed at such a high price, for a sustained period, EVER in crude price history. And it must do so, in order for Alberta to make money at it.

The fact that the biggest oil companies in the world, feel comfortable, spending tens of billions of dollars, developing this resource, with business plans that call for 25 years of construction, tells me they think the price of oil will stay high, for a very long time. Otherwise, the financial calculations that they do, with cost and profit, over the long haul, will make no sense.

Now, the oil in Alberta, has high energy needs. That's why it's so expensive. It's a 2/3 ratio. That is, you have to spend 2 units of energy, to extract 3 units of energy. That's not very energy cost effective. And the shale sands have similar energy extraction ratios. The shale sands are energy of last resort. The oil companies would rather do something easier, if it was around.

Now, if there was lots of cheaper, easier to get oil, then they'd be developing it, wouldn't they? Which tells me, what I have known all along: There isn't enough CHEAP oil. There's alot of the expensive kind, that is toxic, but not the cheap kind, or they'd be developing it right now. (Iraq is the last of the large and cheap and well known sources of oil left, that also doesn't have enviromentalists up in arms)

So, yeah, there's lots of oil. At a very big price. A price that includes the fact that Alberta crude is incredibly toxic, when it comes to pollution.

And one more thing, about oil in the United States. There is, as you said, a lot of oil that is waiting to be discovered, under land that is protected. I'd rather drain Iraq and Iran dry, before I touch pristine wilderness, in the United States. Sure, there's oil there. Do I want it developed? No. Not if it interferes with my enjoyment of the outdoors. We have to start looking for alternatives.

I said, in a previous post, that the oil companies were digging up an area, the size of Florida, in northern Alberta. "The size of Florida" wasn't just a figure of speech. That's the actual size. Not for me.

And, personally, I'm a nature lover. I don't appreciate that the oil companies are turning an area of northern Alberta into, essentially, a toxic dump. And I don't suppose the people of Utah and Colorodo and Wyoming are going to be too pleased either.

-- June 29, 2008 8:21 PM


Roger wrote:

Tom B,

No I am not a Phantom I am an Aries.

Carole,

No not to worry about black holes.

You can not get a black hole by a nuclear or thermal nuclear explosion, it is not the pressure that makes black holes.

The only force that is making a black hole a black hole is gravity.

Gravity is a very weak force, you can not even get a good footing on the moon, so the only known places where a black hole can be developed is in the celestial world.

When the sun dies about 5 Bill years from now, it will first swell up into a red giant, then when the last of the fuel will burn out, the pressure from the fuel outwards can no longer hold back the gravity of the sun, and it will implode ( supernovae) , the core will collapse, and at the same time it will throw out it's outer layer.

Theoretically, in order to get a black hole, you need to have, as a starter, a sun with a mass of about 1.4 bigger than our sun. So our sun does not have mass enough to become a black hole, that is how much mass you need to start making whopee.

So it is not compression per see, we need, we need to compress celestial amount of mass into spaces that are very small.

As a foot note, A German soldier in the first world war ( don't know why they call the first world war the "Great War, there was nothing great with it), did, when he was deployed at the eastern front, calculate for the first time, in the mud between the shelling and attacks, the mathematical properties of a black hole.

He sent the result to Einstein, that acknowledged that this soldier was right. Einstein also had the dubious honor to inform the German Science Academy, a couple of weeks later that this solder was now dead. What a waste.

Tim Bitts,

Saudi Arabia are right now setting up to produce its last known mega field, and are projected by next year to have a national output of about 11 mill barrel a day. The Saudis are themselves saying in connection to this, that there are no lack of oil in this world.

Tim...look at it this way.

Take the three countries that have the biggest field in the world. I am not talking about some small patches here and there, or undeveloped sandy oil, or some Alaskan stuff, but the three known big reserves in the world, in where each country have known mega fields.

The biggest is Saudi Arabia.

Second biggest is Iraq,

Third biggest is Iran.

If one is up and producing, (Saudi Arabia) and the two other big oil reserves are dysfunctional....then it is not lack of oil....it is the other crap.

-- June 30, 2008 2:24 AM


Roger wrote:

Tim B.

As an analogy.

In the mid 1800's there was a big gold rush to California.

There was not, and have never been a lack of shovels, pans, tack, shoes, or other consumer products in this world, not even around the time of the gold rush, but you can create a local market scarcity of any product, you can even produce a world wide scarcity of it if you want. (De Beers is doing it the whole time with diamonds, diamonds are not as rare as they want us to believe, it is actually a fairly common gem)

Local merchants bought up all the needed resources for pennies, and resold the pans and shovels for 10-20 dollars a pop.

So we can bitch all we want when we are filling up ( I do , it helps me relax) but it comes down to, as always, it is your choice if you want a gold pan or not.

It might hurt to beat the crap out of the Chinese, but this will go on for a while, until all the worldly adjustments are made.

-- June 30, 2008 2:37 AM


Carole wrote:

Thanks Roger for response......we probably agree...lots of other things to think about other than Black Holes.

Is anyone paying attention to what is developing in Israel and Iran?

This morning around 4am Iran sent many many missiles to their launching pads. I believe it is response to the huge Israeli military maneuvers recently done over a 800 mile stretch.
What is so interesting is that they had to get permission from multiple Arab nations to use air space for this.
A very hush hush meeting took place between our Secretary of Defense and his counterpart in Israel last week.......

Hmmmmm what's up? Iran has been on the offensive mode for some time now, but I think the missiles to the launching pad is a defensive move.

Now we know that Ira has threatened to destroy the strait that all oil from all middle eastern importers use.

SOOOOO, if US aircraft activity is mobilized.........better get ready....be sure you have plenty of food and water storage to dig in for
a massive war and counter war!

Something is brewing, and as scary as it might be, in my heart I say "well it is about time!"

If my suspicions are right, I think Israel will strike Iran, with massive sea support from US, AND THE SECOND BOOM WILL BE THE US TARGETING aFGHABISTAN ......AND CAPTURE BIN LADEN AND TAKE OUT THE REST OF THE TALIBAN AS WELL AS ANY AL QUEIDA HIDING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
Only this time we have Germany and France in our back pockets!
Finally our pandering to Pakistan will pay off!

Carole

-- June 30, 2008 3:15 AM


carl wrote:

Same Players.....Same Game....Same Goal....

Lets see here....This is my observation on events so far...see if you agree....

Since I bought the dinar in 2004 it has increased in value...

Since I bought the dinar in 2004 it has not increased in value as fast as I wanted it too

Since I bought the dinar I have been hearing of a peg coming any day now...

Since I bought the dinar I have yet to be able to buy anything with it...

Since I bought the dinar Iran has pitched a fit about the US spreading Democracy in the middle east

Since I bought the dinar Iran has been acting like a uncontroled child in a sand box, attempting to get everybodies attention by kicking sand everywhere

Since I bought the dinar Iran the middle eastern countries have remained silent about Iran's temper tantrums, which in arabic lanquage means keep it up, as you fits are causing our oil to go up in price...

Since I bought the dinar the dollar value has fallen faster than the dinar value has risen...

Since I bought the dinar I fiqure, when you take in the decline of the dollars purchasing power I've gone backward in value...

Since I bought the dinar Iran has been trying to get someone to attack it

Since I bought the dinar Iran is really gotten frustrated that so far no one as attacked it, and it had not real excuse to go into IRAQ full scale..

Since I bought the dinar it appears the US and its allies are finally going for the chicken liver bait being dangled by Iran.

Since I bought the dinar it appears the course of uniting Persia of Old just may be a reality if Iran is attacked by Western Forces and its Allies...

Since I bought the dinar I am still watching the drama played out everyday...what comes next well stay tuned to tomorrow

-- June 30, 2008 7:35 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

I haven't made up my mind, whether Peak Oil is a scam. You and I are quite alike, in one way. I'm like you: I tend to be very, very skeptical of data, and people. People very well COULD, create scarcity, for various reasons. But I doubt that scarcity could last forever.

No one person or country or company can control the whole world, especially for such a commonly used commodity, as oil, where you have so many, many competing and independent economic players, each looking after their own interest, and each perfectly capable of finding and developing it's own oil resources. So if there is lots and lots of oil in the world, it will likely be found in many places around the world.

And if there is lots of oil, enough to satisfy demand, then what will happen, is the laws of supply and demand will eventually kick in, and the price will drop. And that's what I am looking for, in proof: I'm looking for an eventual drop in oil price.

Then I'll be convinced. The market can't be fooled forever. Whatever the price of oil is in the market, that price is, what it is, because millions of players, in the oil game. have decided that is what the price should be, based on supply and demand. Since million of players, collectively, have far far more knowledge of the variables involved in oil prices, than any one individual person, no matter how bright, that's why the markets have collective wisdom, when it comes to pricing. That's the factual, collective evidenced-based core of capitalism.

And like Abraham Lincoln once said, "You can fool some of the people, all of the time. You can fool all of the people, some of the time. But you can't fool all of the people, all of the time."

So, eventually, if there is lots of oil, worldwide, enough to meet demand, and then some, then eventually people will figure this out, exploit it, and the price will drop. And then, I will take the market's word for it, that there's lots of oil. Right now, because the price is so high, the market is saying to me, "there's a problem with supply". Well, maybe the problem is, as you say, a manipulated scam. If it is, the market will figure it out eventually.

But I won't take your word for it, that there's lots of oil. You don't know enough to say that, as a positive fact. That's only an opinion. So is mine. And I'm hard nosed enough that opinion doesn't satisfy me. Good solid facts do. Since we don't have good solid facts, the closest thing we have here to facts, are the prices in the market. And the market is saying there's a problem with supply, so the price is going up. So I'm listening to the market.

And if the price goes down, I'll listen to the market, because it will be saying, "the problem with supply has been corrected". And if the market says that, I'll believe it.

So, I don't think you'll be able to convince me. We'll have to agree, to disagree. I'll wait for the market-based evidence.

And if you are right, and all this Peak Oil stuff, is a giant scam, designed to beat the Chinese, well, WOW, that's a heck of a scam!!!

-- June 30, 2008 11:10 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim:

Sorry, peak oil is another doom and gloom scenario along with global warming offered by the left. T Boone Pickins investing in a wind farm in Texas does not signal his belief in peak oil. As a successful entrepreneur. He is looking to make a buck by going "green".

Oil exploration has made significant advancements in the last 20 yrs. In my opinion, we could drill in Anwar and not risk a significant oil spill.
Brazil is taking this perspective by drilling off of their coast after a recent discovery of a large oil reserve there. New information places Iraq reserves at 356 billion barrels.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 11:39 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Committee to settle oil contracts issue – Barazani

Arbil - Voices of Iraq
Monday , 30 /06 /2008 Time 6:42:42




Arbil, Jun 28, (VOI) – Iraqi Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Nejervan al-Barazani revealed that a committee was set up with the Baghdad central government during his recent visit to the Iraqi capital to settle the issue of oil contracts as well as the oil & gas law.


"The committee formed during my visit to Baghdad is composed of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, myself, Vice Presidents Tareq al-Hashimi and Adel Abdul-Mahdi, Deputy Premier Burham Saleh and Roz Nouri Shawis, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)'s politburo," Barazani said during a press conference in Arbil on Saturday, attended by the correspondent of Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq – (VOI).
"The committee, which will start its work next week, aims to reach a solution for the issue of oil contracts and the law on oil & gas," he added.
He underlined that the oil contracts "signed by the government of Iraqi Kurdistan was a right granted by the constitution."
The Iraqi government had refused to recognize the oil contracts signed by the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign corporations to explore and invest oilfields in the KRG's territories.
On the issues of the Region Guards, or the peshmerga in Kurdish, and the means to merge them into the Iraqi army in line with the Iraqi armed forces' criteria, Barazani replied that a joint committee was formed 18 months ago the settle the issue of the peshmerga.
"The committee was composed of the U.S. and British sides, the Iraqi defense ministry and a representative of the KRG, but failed to reach a final solution," the Kurdish premier explained.
The Baghdad government had declined to pay the salaries of more than 190,000 peshmerga personnel from the central defense ministry budget.
Asked on the issue of article 140 of the constitution pertaining to normalization in Kirkuk, Barazani said there was no "political orientation to marginalize the article's application."
Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution is related to normalization in Kirkuk, an important and mixed city of Kurds, Turcomans, Christians, Arabs and Assyrians.
Kurds seek to include the city into the autonomous Iraq's Kurdistan region, while Sunni Muslims, Turcomans and Shiites oppose the incorporation. The article stipulates that all Arabs in Kirkuk be returned to their original locations in southern and central Iraqi areas, and formerly displaced residents returned to Kirkuk, 250 km northeast of Baghdad.
The article also calls for conducting a census to be followed by a referendum to let the inhabitants decide whether they would like Kirkuk to be annexed to the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan region or having it as an independent province.
These stages were supposed to end on December 31, 2007, a deadline that was later extended to six months.
The former regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had forced over 250,000 Kurdish residents to give up their homes to Arabs in the 1970s, to "Arabize" the city and the region's oil industry.
Answering a question by VOI correspondent on his position regarding the recent report by UN envoy Staffan De Mistura, Barazani replied that the Iraqi government "was discontented with part of the first report just like our government refused it and would even refuse future reports if they came similar to that one."
De Mistura had submitted a report in the form of recommendations for the Iraqi government in early June providing that four of the disputed areas would under the administration of both the central and Iraqi Kurdistan governments.
The report suggested that the districts of al-Hamdaniya and Mandili come under the central government's administration while the Kurds would be entitled to run the districts of Makhmour and Aqra.
(www.aswataliraq.info)

Thanks,

Rob N.


-- June 30, 2008 11:43 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Rob N.

Iraq throws open door to foreign oil firms
Mon Jun 30, 2008 11:49am EDT By Ahmed Rasheed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq threw open the world's third largest oil reserves to foreign firms on Monday, putting British and U.S. companies in pole position five years after U.S.-led troops invaded the country to oust Saddam Hussein.

The move to invite bids for the development of Iraq's largest producing oilfields should mark the return of the oil majors, whose cash and expertise Iraq needs to restore its oil infrastructure that has been hard hit by sanctions and war.

But any awards to U.S. and British firms could anger opponents of the invasion, who have said the 2003 war was designed to give Western oil companies control over Iraqi oil reserves. U.S. and British officials have denied the charges.

By allowing international firms to help raise output at its key producing oil fields, the Iraqi government is breaking with the policy of major oil-producing neighbors such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates where national firms keep tight control of foreign investment in their oil sectors.

"The six oilfields that have been announced today are the backbone of Iraq's oil production, and some of them are getting old and production is declining," Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani told a news conference.

"With its massive proven reserves, Iraq should not stay at its current level of production. Iraq should be the second or third largest oil producing country (in the world)."

Shahristani listed the fields as Rumaila, Kirkuk, Zubair, West Qurna Phase 1, Bai Hassan and Maysan -- which comprises three separate fields: Bazargan, Abu Gharab and Fakka.

The Oil Ministry said they were open for long-term development contracts. Iraqi has prequalified 41 foreign firms.

He also said the foreign bidders must take on a local partner with a minimum 25 percent stake in the deal; and that any firm that wanted to bid must open an office in Baghdad. Currently, few foreign companies have any presence in Iraq because of the security situation.

SHORT-TERM DEALS

Iraq said last week it also hopes to sign six short-term oil service contracts during the next month.

Taken together, the short-term and long-term contracts will open the door to major international involvement in the OPEC member's oil sector for the first time in nearly four decades.

The majors have been positioning themselves for years in the hope of eventually gaining access to Iraq's oil reserves.

Its proven reserves, at 115 billion barrels, are the world's largest after Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said in April that as-yet unproven reserves could make the overall total as much as 350 billion barrels.

"We feel it is very important for Iraq to arrest any decline and increase production," Shahristani said.

The short-term service deals, each worth about $500 million, are aimed at quickly lifting output at Iraq's largest producing fields by a combined 500,000 barrels a day.

Five of the short-term deals that have been under discussion are with Royal Dutch Shell; Shell in partnership with BHP Billiton; BP; Exxon Mobil; and Chevron in partnership with Total.

Iraq has also been in talks with a consortium of Anadarko, Vitol and Dome for a sixth short-term contract.

Those talks on the short-term deals have given the majors concerned a head start in efforts to bid for future contracts.

In terms of the short-terms contracts, Shell negotiated for the Kirkuk oilfield in the north and was also in talks on the Maysan fields, Iraqi officials have said. BP has its eyes on the Rumaila field in the south, while Exxon wants the contract for the Zubair oilfield, in Basra province, also in the south.

And Chevron and Total were looking to work together to develop West Qurna, also in Basra.

RESENTMENT

But many Iraqis still bear a grudge after British, American and French oil companies controlled their oil industry for half a century through the Iraq Petroleum Co (IPC).

It was an era when Western majors working in the Middle East used oil output and prices as an economic and political tool, analysts said.

From the time it struck oil at the huge Kirkuk field in 1927 until nationalism forced it out in 1972, IPC -- made up of BP, Exxon, Mobil, Shell, CFP (Total) and Partex - ruled the roost.

That did not sit well with Baghdad, which resented IPC's control over its revenues.

Oil is Iraq's main source of income, and boosting output is key to earning the cash the country needs for reconstruction.

Iraq's cabinet agreed a draft oil law in February last year, but it has failed to get through parliament.

In the absence of the law, Baghdad has moved ahead with the contracts, saying this is in line with an old oil law in existence before the invasion that toppled Saddam.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 11:59 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Rob N:

T. Boone Pickens does, in fact, believe that oil production has peaked, globally. He said so, publically, right here:

www.peakoil.net/BoonPickens.html

-- June 30, 2008 12:11 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Parliament demands oversight of oil deals
By Mustafa al-Hashemi

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

29 June 2008 (Azzaman)
Print article Send to friend
The Iraqi parliament has asked the Oil Ministry to send draft oil deals to legislators for approval before they are signed.

The request was made formally by the parliamentary gas and oil committee which oversees performance of the country’s energy sector, currently almost the sole earner of hard cash.

The committee’s deputy head, Abdulhadi al-Hassani, said legally the ministry was under obligation to do so since the parliament has not yet passed the draft oil and gas law.

But it is not clear whether the ministry would heed the parliament’s request.

Iraqi Kurds say they are not under Baghdad parliament’s jurisdiction and have taken matters into their own hands as far as oil deals with foreign firms are concerned.

The demand comes amid reports that the ministry has signed six deals with six oil majors to develop currently producing fields.

Hassani said Iraqi legislators wanted to have a say in any deals to ensure that they followed the standard procedures of competition and transparency.

The parliament has summoned Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani for questioning.

Hassani said Shahristani would appear before the deputies on Wednesday.

The government is not denying or confirming reports that the deals it says it is signing have passed through proper procedures.

Shahristani would only say the deals with Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP – original partners in the nationalized Iraq Petroleum Company or the IPC – as well as the U.S. Chevron are service contracts.

He says development contracts with regard to giant non-producing fields will be open to proper bidding procedures.

Iraqi authorities in Baghdad and Arabil – the seat of the Kurdish regional government – are apparently in a rush to sign as many deals as possible.

The Kurds have so far signed 17 such deals with foreign firms despite criticism from the central government in Baghdad.

The Oil Ministry says 35 foreign firms have won deals to service and develop oil fields.

Iraq’s oil riches, one of the largest in the world, have turned into a divisive issue among disparate Iraqi ethnic and sectarian groups which have failed to agree on how to distribute their returns once they are developed.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 1:24 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq to pay oil companies in cash

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

30 June 2008 (AME Info FZ LLC)
Print article Send to friend
Iraq's Oil Minister announced on Al Arabiya television that the winners of a tender to boost production from existing oil fields will be paid in cash, Bloomberg has reported.

Iraq will pay cash instead of actual oil to ensure that the nation's natural resources remain the property of Iraq. Iraq will release details of the contracts to be offered and the fields used on 30 June.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 1:26 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts said, "Now, if there was lots of cheaper, easier to get oil, then they'd be developing it, wouldn't they? Which tells me, what I have known all along: There isn't enough CHEAP oil... If the price goes down, I'll listen to the market, because it will be saying, "the problem with supply has been corrected". And if the market says that, I'll believe it." (end quote)

I know a person who is highly respected in this industry, like those you have written about and quoted. His perspective is unique and interesting.. an inside look into the oil patch. His credentials are impeccable, though to give them would identify him, and I do not wish to do that, publicly. And what he says makes a lot of sense to me. He would disagree with your assessment here, I know. He would tell you that the problem is the way the oil companies are run. They are run by what he calls "the bean counters" - those who look at the bottom line, and don't like taking risks. They would prefer to exploit existing fields rather than go looking for new ones. They look at how this fits into a portfolio which is trying to attract investors like the large pension funds, and they don't want to do anything too risky so that they are unattractive to hold for those HUGE marketshares. The oil companies are also run by many who believe in peak oil, as you pointed out in the article, above. And, as a result of these two factors, the majors are not expending the time or energy to develop new fields. Peak oil is thus a self-fulfilling prophecy.. since the oil companies BELIEVE there isn't any cheap oil to find.. (and the bean counters don't like taking risks) they don't do the exploration to find it.

Drilling new prospective wells does not have a high rate of return. MOST people who do such exploration end up with ten or maybe twenty percent success rate. That means an 80-90% FAILURE rate (not good odds), which the bean counters do not like (as it does not go well when putting out to the pension funds why they should invest their megamillions into holding your company's stock.) This person I know drilled ten wells in one of the states of the union, and he hit EIGHT out of the ten. Anyhow, he is not into peak oil. And I have been watching his life and seeing the results. I don't know about all the conspiracy stuff which was in the article which you posted about NOT believing in peak oil.. but I do see that those who look for oil can find it. I see no shortage - instead, your comment tweaked my interest when you said, quote:

"And one more thing, about oil in the United States. There is, as you said, a lot of oil that is waiting to be discovered, under land that is protected. I'd rather drain Iraq and Iran dry, before I touch pristine wilderness, in the United States." (end quote)

I think that is more the problem than the lack of reserves. We would rather have the caribou happy.. than have people affordably be able to heat/cool their homes and drive their cars. It is just a matter of priorities, not scarcity.

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gx1Esxl0

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqDxszr

If we are willing to work at developing the resources, we can have the market "correction" you speak of, IMHO. I also believe that Iraq can be a part of that correction... since the majors are willing to drill there, because the odds of striking oil in Iraq are not ten to twenty percent like over here. The reason the majors want into Iraq is because it is easily available oil, but that does not mean there is not oil here, it is just harder to find.. or unless you know HOW to look, as this person I know seems to.

Sara.

-- June 30, 2008 1:27 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Japan to aid Iraq in rebuilding oil, gas industry

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

29 June 2008 (Oil & Gas Journal)
Print article Send to friend
Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain Al Shahristani and Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Akira Amari—voicing concerns over global oil prices—agreed for the two countries to cooperate in a variety of measures aimed at reconstructing Iraq's oil and natural gas industry.

"The two countries confirmed that rebuilding the oil industry and increasing output are important for the stability of crude oil prices, and Japan is ready to fully cooperate to that end," Amari said after meeting with Al Shahristani.

Japan and Iraq will strengthen cooperation in a range of economic fields centering on the energy sector. They said oil and gas development and the reconstruction of existing energy-related facilities are essential for the rehabilitation of Iraq.

Basra refinery upgrade
Japan reconfirmed its commitment to implement development loans it has pledged, including one to help build refinery and export facilities in and around Basra. The 2.1 billion-yen loan to Basra includes installing secondary units such as a fluid catalytic cracker.

In January, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation said it had signed an agreement with Baghdad for as much as ¥182.7 billion to restore war-damaged facilities, including ¥50.1 billion on the oil export facility reconstruction project.

At the time, JBIC said the two countries also agreed to spend ¥36.8 billion for rehabilitation of the Al-Mussaib thermal power plant; ¥30.2 billion for the Iraqi port area rehabilitation project; ¥32.6 billion for rebuilding the power grid; and ¥30.9 billion on other civic rehabilitation and construction projects.

In early June, JBIC signed additional loan agreements totaling ¥57.7 billion for the Basra water supply improvement project and reconstruction of the Kurdistan electric power grid.

Japan's oil and gas firms have reaped rewards from the investments. In April, Inpex Holdings Inc. and three other Japanese companies passed a preliminary screening of potential bidders for Iraqi oil exploration and development.

In addition, Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Nippon Oil Corp., and Mitsubishi Corp. are among 41 of the 120 applicants to have passed the Oil Ministry's preliminary screening. The 41 include ExxonMobil Corp., BP PLC, and oil and gas companies from China, Russia, and India.

Iraq expressed hope that more Japanese companies will participate in bidding for projects to develop Iraqi oil fields, while Japan offered to train a hundred Iraqi engineers a year during 2009-13.

The Iraqi oil ministry said this week it is planning by the end of the month to announce the first round of tenders to develop its oil and gas fields.

A ministry spokesman said names of the fields, duration of each contract, closing dates for receiving bids, and other details would be made public on June 30.

The oil and gas fields include Kirkuk and Bai Hasan in northern Iraq, as well as West Qurna 1, Zubair, Rumaila, and Missan in southern Iraq. They also said two gas fields—Akkas in western Iraq and Mansoriya in the east—will be included.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 1:30 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Sara,

Very interesting comments, you made. I've never heard that perspective, about bean counters, and caution, in regards to production of oil. Makes sense.

As to "keeping the caribou happy", yes, I believe in preserving nature. I have a real spiritual connection to this beautiful world, and I have spent a good deal of my life hunting and fishing and camping and birdwatching. I've also travelled around the planet, a fair bit, and I have seen first hand, human destruction of the enviroment.

Like your great Republican president, Teddy Roosevelt, I am an avid outdoorsman, and a conservationist. President Roosevelt set aside a great deal of land, for Americans to enjoy the beauty of God's creation, in perpetuity, and he was a great man, for it, and well ahead of his time. Like him, I don't believe in thoughtless exploitation of resources, by people.

Like your great president, I believe in "keeping the caribou happy", and I am saddened that most people grow up in cities, disconnected from God's creation; it's a sad thing that there are not more religious conservationists.

My hope is that the needs of humans can be balanced with the need to protect all of God's creatures. Isn't that what the Bible says? In Genesis? That man is to have dominion over the earth, and to be a good stewart of it? That was my impression, anyway.

So, I'll continue to cheer on this President, and his policies in the middle east, because I think they are right. And I will continue to cheer on the enviromentalists,and support their efforts to fight for conserving nature. My big hero is Jane Goodal, and I've read her books, and met her once, briefly, and seen her speak, in person, twice. At the same time, I remain a social conservative, and I don't like most of the philosophical beliefs of liberals. So, I guess you could call me a green conservative.

One last comment, about peak oil. I think it's an important point, in trying to figure out, what's going on, in regards to oil production, because it relates to the Iraqi Dinar.

Everything I have learned so far, leads me to believe that we are in, at least, Peak Short Term Cheap oil.

Roger is correct that in the long run, the resources are there, for energy, and will be exploited, eventually. (hopefully in an ethically responsible way.)

But even if you are right, and there could be a lot more oil found, the real question I want to try to guess is: What is likely to happen?

And my guess on that is, Peak Short Term Cheap Oil, is what is likely to happen. What this means is, I think, in the next 5-10 years, for whatever causal reasons, there will be an energy crunch, coming from a lack of supply.

And this will mean, the energy resources, in Iraq, as they are developed, will become incredibly important, on the world stage.

Which means I believe that eventually, all middle eastern currencies, of oil producing countries, will see their currency values soar.

Which means, I think the Iraqi Dinar, once it has reached it's full value, in 5-10 years, will be much much higher than people think. It will be on par with Saudi Arabian currency, and I believe that Saudi currency will go up, a lot.

So, I expect a very, very decent RV in a year or two, but I'm planning on holding on, to a lot of Dinars, because I think the value of the Dinar will continue to rise, and hit peak, about 7 years from now.

And, that, is why I've been going on and on about peak oil: It's part of the equation of trying to figure out, what will probably happen, in the future.:)

-- June 30, 2008 3:27 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim:

Frankly, "Peak Oil" and its counter part "Global Warming" are a product of a new industry. This industry is supported by the radical left. It is bent on marketing fear to the general public.

This industry now in its incipient stage carries the mantra of going green. Pickens and other entrepreneurs see money to be made because of the blacklash against hydro carbons.

Substantial scentific evidence is lacking concering the definite casual and effect of global warming. Credible science has failed to prove beyond a resonable doubt peak oil.

In my view, going green means the implementation of a liberal agenda. Ridding the United States of automobiles in favor of a government run transit system. In the green community, only the very wealthy will have hydro carbon cars. The somewhat wealthy will ride around in either electric or hydrogen fuel cell cars. The perils of mass transit is the fate of the rest of us.

A push by the liberals for some type of government run health care is another example of elitism in America. Only the very wealthy should have access to privitized healthcare while the masses are subjected to an inefficient government run program. I do not buy the bag of goods the liberal left and the msm are selling.

If you remember George W. Bush was criticized for not signing the Kyoto protocol. Why? He did not subscribe to the going green orthodoxy that hydro carbons are bad. More importantly, the Kyoto protocol would have required the U.S. to relinquish some of its sovereignty.

Peak Oil, Global Warming, Government mandated health care, gun control, abortion, gay marriage and etc. are all tools in the lefts social engineering aresenal.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- June 30, 2008 4:02 PM


Carole wrote:

Rob N,

MY HERO OF THE DAY!!!!!

( bet you thought you'd never hear me say that! :)

But honestly, I don't think I have ever heard anyone sum liberal social engineering and objecting to it so eloquently, yet direct, inclusive. clear and brave!

A HEARTY AMEN!

Carole

-- June 30, 2008 5:03 PM


Sara wrote:

timbitts;

Yes, I felt that perspective on the oil situation was unique and worth sharing.. I am pleased that you also found it worth gnawing on. :)

I straddle that fence you spoke of too, myself.. between being green friendly and also allowing the "exploitation" (development) of oil resources. I have seen documentaries of humans dying or on subsistence (survival) level living.. because the eco-greens bought up the land around the natives to keep the environment "pristine" - resulting in the natives having no place to grow crops or build homes and causing them to be crowded out of THEIR LANDS and into slums. I believe that when it comes to human development or pristine wilderness.. the compromise of responsible human development MUST win out for the good of HUMANS over "the planet". Can you imagine if the greens had been in North America when it first began and not allowed us to develop ("exploit") the land or put up cities in (North) America.. how different our countries would be!!

The Bible teaches that we are to be responsible STEWARDS of the planet and its resources. The caribou picture (in my last post) shows that the drilling site is a tiny part of Alaska - it is not the entire thing that they want to develop. So long as we don't mind displacing a few caribou, I think we can manage not to harm the environment overall in developing this area of "fossil" fuels. Humans should not starve to death, nor be deprived of a good standard of living, due to wanting a few caribou to be able to wander over one piece of land over another. There are HUGE reserves of land in Alaska, and that one tiny bit on the hind quarters of Alaska is not going to make or break if the caribou survive. But it might make the difference as to whether someone can heat or air condition their home, or drive to (or for) work, keep their job and provide for their families. The human needs should outweigh those of mere animals.

How would you like it in Alberta if you could not heat your home in the winter, timbitts.. how many would survive through to Spring? How many would die? We are not talking caribou deaths over humans in developing Alaska.. but if it were at that point, I would still pick the humans to live over the caribou - unlike the true greenies who think there are too many humans on the planet and actively promote the idea of killing off a few million of us (one of the points I am sure you also disagree with them about.) I am not a greenie in that way.. I cannot endorse murder of humans to "protect the environment" - humans will always come first with me over the worship of "mother earth." I see it as ridiculous for caribou to be allowed to run across pristine land while Albertans or Americans in the Northern provinces freeze to death during the winter. But I do respect the environment and believe, like President "Teddy" Roosevelt, that we ought to protect and preserve it for future generations. But that does not mean not touching ANWR! There are exceptions to any rule.. this is one of them, as I am certain even President Roosevelt would agree that in this case it is a national priority in light of current events.

http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1jlD3i

timbitts, I do sympathize with the green agenda as you do (where it is not in conflict with human life), and I do think that the greenies do much to help people to realize and look after the environment responsibly. Stewardship is possible for even the oil companies - and the oil companies are often now in the forefront of making environmental proposals which take into account the green lobby interests - because they are a force to be reckoned with. I believe that is because they are needed for balance and God has allowed that lobby to bring some needed debate so that harm is not done indiscriminately to His good green earth.

You said that, quote, ".. my guess on that is, Peak Short Term Cheap Oil, is what is likely to happen. What this means is, I think, in the next 5-10 years, for whatever causal reasons, there will be an energy crunch, coming from a lack of supply. And this will mean, the energy resources, in Iraq, as they are developed, will become incredibly important, on the world stage. Which means I believe that eventually, all middle eastern currencies, of oil producing countries, will see their currency values soar." (end quote)

I AGREE! :)

Which is good for Iraq.. for the Dinar.. and for us Dinar investors. But I still think simultaneous efforts to drill on North American lands to help supply the people in North America is not a bad thing. It is a national priority.. or should be one. Certainly, McCain's stance on this issue has been mature and honest and for the good of America (and Canada, who trades a lot of such resources with the US).

As this new McCain ad says:

John McCain will call America to our next national purpose: Energy Security.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O85jpuFKT4

Sara.

-- June 30, 2008 5:47 PM


Sara wrote:

Giant Saudi field is key to boosting oil output
Remote Khurais project should be supplying crude by June of next year
June. 29, 2008 / AP

KHURAIS OIL FIELD, Saudi Arabia - This massive oil field surrounded by the desolate sands of Saudi Arabia's vast eastern desert feels like the middle of nowhere.

But what happens over the next year at Khurais, one of Saudi Arabia's last undeveloped giant oil fields, could hold the key to what drivers will pay at the pump for years to come.

Under way at Khurais and two other smaller fields nearby is what Saudi Arabia calls the single largest expansion of oil production capacity in history.

Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Aramco, is spending $10 billion to build the infrastructure to pump 1.2 million barrels of oil per day by next June from the Khurais field and its two smaller neighbors. That alone would be more than the total individual production of OPEC members Qatar, Indonesia and Ecuador.

The project forms the centerpiece of the Saudi plan to increase the total amount of oil it can produce to 12.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2009 — up from a little more than 11 million barrels per day now.

Consuming nations have pushed Saudi Arabia to boost production capacity even further and also want the world's top oil exporter to begin pumping more crude immediately to bring down record oil prices hovering near $140 a barrel. They say oil production has not kept up with increased demand, especially from China, India and the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia plans to produce 9.7 million barrels of oil per day, or 11 percent of the world's total, in July. It is the only nation with significant excess capacity that it could put on the market quickly.

But the kingdom has resisted calls to increase production further, saying financial speculators and the falling dollar are to blame for high oil prices, not a shortage of supply....

If all goes as scheduled, Aramco forecasts more than 50 billion barrels of fresh reserves from the giant fields by 2011. That amount alone would give Saudi Arabia the ninth largest oil reserves in the world, not even counting its existing reserves.

Outside analysts estimate the kingdom's total current reserves at about 260 billion barrels. But Saudi Arabia refuses to provide detailed data to allow independent verification.

Amin Nasser, senior vice president for production and exploration at Aramco, acknowledges the company sometimes faces criticism for that secrecy. "We have a tradition of letting our actions and accomplishments speak for themselves," he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25443913/

-- June 30, 2008 5:59 PM


Sara wrote:

I mentioned the ten to twenty percent statistic of recovering oil from prospective leases.
Here it says only one of three wells results in a discovery of oil that can be recovered economically. In deeper water, it’s one of five.
So that is twenty to thirty percent.. a tad bit better. :)

Still.. it isn't like in Iraq.. where the odds are that you will find oil just drilling for water, like Jed Clampett. :)
But even Jed had a lot more help from the government than today's Dems would give him:
http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1jEeor

Here (below), a bit of the obstacles are discussed.. do you see Peak Oil at work here.. or government red tape and "bean counter" problems to do with not wishing to take risks which return only twenty to thirty percent success on your investment?
And if the Dems get into the act and muddy the water.. they may make it even MORE unprofitable by REQUIRING drilling on ALL the leases.. a bean counter's nightmare.. since that means SEVENTY to EIGHTY PERCENT losses.. how will that look on their bottom lines?
Crazy politics.. by those who know nothing through either ignorance.. or malice, says the Wall Street Journal (below).
Is this really what Americans want for "change" when they vote at the polls?

Sara.

===

Obama misleads on oil leases: WSJ
June 30, 2008
by Ed Morrissey

The Wall Street Journal lambastes Barack Obama for disseminating falsehoods on oil exploration, either through malice or ignorance. The Journal can’t identify the root cause, but in the end it matters little. His misleading allegations regarding oil leases, joined by most of the Democrats in Congress, will lead to foolish and self-defeating policies, as anyone who has studied the process of oil production knows,
QUOTE:

To deflect the GOP effort to relax the offshore-drilling ban – and thus boost supply while demand will remain strong – Democrats also say that most of the current leases are “nonproducing.” The idea comes from a “special report” prepared by the Democratic staff of the House Resources Committee, chaired by Mr. Rahall. “If we extrapolate from today’s production rates on federal lands and waters,” the authors write, the oil companies could “nearly double total U.S. oil production” (their emphasis).

In other words, these whiz kids assume that every acre of every lease holds the same amount of oil and gas. Yet the existence of a lease does not guarantee that the geology holds recoverable resources. Brian Kennedy of the Institute for Energy Research quips that, using the same extrapolation, the 9.4 billion acres of the currently nonproducing moon should yield 654 million barrels of oil per day.

Nonetheless, the House still went through with a gesture called the “use it or lose it” bill, which passed on Thursday 223-195. It would be pointless even if it had a chance of becoming law. Oil companies acquire leases in the expectation that some of them contain sufficient oil and gas to cover the total costs. Yet it takes years to move through federal permitting, exploration and development. The U.S. Minerals Management Service notes that only one of three wells results in a discovery of oil that can be recovered economically. In deeper water, it’s one of five. All this involves huge risks, capital investment – and time.

If anything, the Democrats ought to be dancing in the streets about “idle” leases. It means fewer rigs. The days of hit-or-miss wildcatting have been relegated to the past by new, more efficient technologies, such as seismic imaging, directional drilling (wells that are “steered” underground) and multilateral drilling (multiple underground offshoots from a single wellbore).

===end quote===

Last week in Las Vegas, Obama offered the same criticism — that oil companies haven’t drilled on the leases they already have. That’s poppycock, as the Journal explains. Not all leases get drilled because not all leases have oil. The producers spend millions of dollars on geological surveys to limit bad investments and put resources where the oil can be accessed. Right now, the best prospects for finding new fields are in the OCS, as Brazil has shown in two finds this year alone. In 2006, we found a huge deep-sea reservoir in the Gulf: Wilcox, which may have as much as 15 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Can we find more Wilcoxes? Not as long as Congress refuses to lift their moratorium on exploration of the OCS. Demanding drilling first on all extant leases is an absurd position to take when they don’t have any indication of accessible oil from the preliminary studies. It amounts to drilling dry holes at a cost of tens of millions of dollars each just to demonstrate the futility. Who do you think will pay that cost? Hint: it won’t be Barack Obama or Congress, but the people who drive up to the pumps every day.

Republicans have to hammer home this point every day between now and the election. Democrats offer disinformation on drilling rather than work for solutions to a supply crisis in energy which has all of the indications of a long-term problem. One can either ascribe that to ignorance or malice on an individual or group basis, but then voters have to ask themselves this: does it really matter which cause is in play? If Democrats are merely ignorant on energy production — after all of the years we have spent in crisis, and after months of being in control of Congress — that should be more than enough to show that we need a change, and not a President who is just as ignorant as Congressional leadership.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/06/30/obama-misleads-on-oil-leases-wsj/

-- June 30, 2008 7:00 PM


BritishKnite wrote:

It seems the service agreements have now been signed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7480674.stm

Next year, service agreements for the most important fields will be signed. Hopefully, the Dinar will start to show some pace in its upward movement.

BritishKnite

-- June 30, 2008 7:37 PM


Sara wrote:

A Human interest story.. with oil in it.
Good for them! :)
I do hope the Dems don't turn off the taps for the ordinary folks profiting from the oil company's work.

Oil is making millionaires in North Dakota
By JAMES MacPHERSON
Mon Jun 30, 2008

BEULAH, N.D. - In less than a year, Stohler and his wife, Lorene, 82, have become millionaires from the production of one well on their land near Dunn Center, a mile or so from the sod home where Oscar grew up. A second well has begun producing on their property and another is being drilled — all aimed at the Bakken shale formation, a rich deposit that the U.S. Geological Survey calls the largest continuous oil accumulation it has ever assessed.

Landowners in western North Dakota have a much better chance of striking it rich from oil than they do playing the lottery, say the Stohlers. Some of their neighbors in the town of about 120, from bar tenders to Tupperware salespeople, have become "overnight millionaires" from oil royalty payments.

"It's the easiest money we've ever made," said Lorene Stohler, who worked for decades as a sales clerk at a small department store.

State and industry officials say North Dakota is on pace to set a state oil-production record this year, surpassing the 52.6 million barrels produced in 1984. A record number of drill rigs are piercing the prairie and North Dakota has nearly 4,000 active oil wells.

The drilling frenzy has led companies to search for oil using horizontal drilling beneath Parshall, a town of about 980 in Mountrail County, and under Lake Sakakawea, 180-mile-long reservoir on the Missouri River.

"I have heard, anecdotally, that there is a millionaire a day being created in North Dakota," said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council.

Kathy Strombeck, a state Tax Department analyst, said the number of "income millionaires" in North Dakota is rising.

The number of taxpayers reporting adjusted gross income of more than $1 million in North Dakota rose from 266 in 2005 to 388 in 2006, Strombeck said. The 2007 numbers won't be known until October, she said.

Bruce Gjovig, director of the University of North Dakota's Center for Innovation, said his informal survey estimates the number of new millionaires in Mountrail County, one of the biggest drilling areas of the Bakken, may be as many as 2,000 — or nearly a third of the county's population — in the next three to five years.

The oil boom has spurred several "Jed Clampett-like" tales of ordinary folks getting rich, said Tom Rolfstad, the economic development director for the city of Williston.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080630/ap_on_re_us/overnight_millionaires;_ylt=A0WTUfy6b2lIXTQBCjYDW7oF

-- June 30, 2008 7:58 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Rob,

You say liberals are spreading fear. Could be. Fear is not a bad thing. It depends on how it's handled. Fear is necessary for our survival. Anyone who doesn't have any fear is, well, an idiot. There are real dangers in the world. And then there are imagined ones. The trick is, figuring out which is which.

If people are made afraid, they should look into, what makes them afraid. Look for evidence. Look for the truth, based on evidence. If you want to fight fear mongering, reply with facts. Facts and truth take away fear.

Eventually, the truth comes out. So keep pushing for and looking for, the truth. I think we would agree on that.

Rob,

On global warming, I haven't followed that debate enough, to have much of an opinion. My general belief is, if there is a problem with greenhouse gases, (a big if), that technology will take care of it, fairly quickly. I follow a lot of development into alternative energies, and there are a lot of exciting possibilites coming up.

Whether or not global warming is b.s. or not, I'm sure everyone on the board, including you, is in favour of leaving our children a world as clean, and safe as possible. My suspicion is that all this fuss over global warming is a good thing, even if it's bogus. The reason is, it is focussing people's energy on problems of pollution, and leaving the world in better shape than is was, when we arrived.

I also suspect that the high price of oil, and the fuss over alleged global warming will lead to a technological explosion that will make the lives of our grandchildren much, much better and richer than ours were. Any large human problem, where there is a lot of anxiety involved, and where there is a lot of money to be made, eventually leads to creative change and solutions.

So, my guess is, the global warming debate, as well as the high price of oil, is a blessing in disguise. I know for a fact that the federal patent office in Washington, is registering record numbers of patents, each year, a lot of them relating to energy use. I read an opinion poll recently that said that 20% of university-bound young people want to work on problems related to energy, enviromental problems, and the like. You think it's a bad thing, that America's best and brightest, the next generation, want to use their substantial talents to tackle these problems? I don't. I think it's a great thing. I think it's fantastic. And now, Silicon Valley in California, which has some of the best and brightest, best educated and most creative people in the entire world, are starting to focus a lot of talent on the problems relating to the enviroment and energy.

Is that a bad thing? I don't think so. Good old fashioned Yankee can-do spirit and creativity will prevail over whatever problems are out there.

So, if the global warming crowd are all upset over levels of CO2 in the enviroment, and even if that is a bogus belief, if that belief leads to an unparalleled level of technological and scientific creativity, and leads to a better life, in a cleaner world, with cleaner air, and where our standard of living is even higher, for us, our children, as well as the rest of the world, I'm all for it.

And that is exactly where I think this is all heading. I'm convinced America has a special place in history, with a tradition of creativity and problem solving, that will eventually be a great blessing to the rest of the planet. Just like the light bulb, computers and automobiles, and dozens of other things we take for granted, in the modern world, were invented in North America. And I don't think that creative period has ended. It's probably just getting started.

So, I think conservatives like you, who oppose the global warming crowd, haven't thought about this, far enough ahead. I'll bet the fuss over global warming will turn out to be a good thing. A real blessing in disguise.

You watch. It'll lead to a much better world. It's happening already, in Silicon Valley, and various places, in the United States. I know. I'm following the story.

And if Peak Oil is a hoax, or more liberal social engineering, so what? Big deal, Rob. Nothing motivates people like money. The best friend enviromentalists ever had, goes by the name George W. Bush. Only enviromentalists are usually not bright enough to figure that out.

Enviromentalists are upset over hydrocarbon use, and their alleged impacts on the enviroments. Under President Bush, oil prices have shot up, through the roof. And that's a good thing, because it will cause people to do smart things, to become much more efficient. The same thing happened after the energy crises in the 1970s. It took awhile, but American ingenuity and can-do know how won the day. America started producing much more GNP, on less energy. Trust me, the same thing will happen again, only bigger this time. In 15 years, America will be much more energy efficient, which means the economy will function much better, and the standard of living will rise. And alternative energy sources will be found, leading to a better life, and better quality enviroment.

So, my take on all this is this: Conservatives have it backwards. All of this is a good thing.

And if liberals think everyone will end up on mass transit, it will backfire. If all this, global warming stuff, is liberal social engineering, and they think it will end with Americans poor, it won't work. It'll backfire on them. In fact, it will lead to far greater prosperity for America. So there's nothing to fear from it. In fact, I think alternative energy will be the largest economic job generators in the United States, in the next 20 years. America will get very rich, getting more green. The technological changes and improvements coming in the future will be the greatest boom, in American history. The party is just getting started, on America.

Green will be proved to be very very profitable, and will lead to a better life for everyone.

As to your comments, that the green movement will lead to everyone in mass transit, with only the elites having hydrocarbons, you are 100% wrong, Rob.

Yankee know-how will lead to a richer world.

-- June 30, 2008 8:09 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Gosh How I wished I had more time to enter the debate on Global warming........but I don't.

So, I'll just have to sit back and watch the debate.

I can only comment to your remark about "keep searching for truth" to diffuse and dispel fear.

Well, one will never find truth, when the issue (GW) starts out as a lie. Falsehood, no matter how much exploited (manipulated) will never lead to truth.

GW is based on a divisive, unsubstantiated lie. Most of the premise is based on fear theory, which is supposed to " wake us up".

Following their initial premise, the second premise is that humans are the cause of this "lie".

I don't care how rich people will get from " the movement". Not one tidbit will be of any value to our future generations. No good lesson can be learned from it.

Before GW was a part of our vocabulary, we were taught to turn off lights when leaving a room, don't let hot water run unnecessarily etc.

That was because responsible humans wanted to instill in their offspring the dynamics of waste not want not. THAT was truth motivated by rational fear (if you will).

Let's examine and apply your rationale to the unbelievable exploitation of INDIAN GAMBLING CASINOS. Oh yes, on the surface, many have become very very wealthy.......even to the point that the Indian culture in AMERICA has changed dramatically for some BUT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE EMOTIONAL, SOCIO ECONOMIC, AND ECOLOGICAL DEMISE( and I'm going to leave out spiritual) of many many more!

The means ( the lie) does not justify the end ( the horrific legacy we pass on to our young).

I encourage you to open your mind enough to take heed to the declarations made in Rob's post. If we could live another 100 years ( maybe 50)we would be able to look back and see that so much of this nonsense was so very very unnecessary, yet so very very destructive to the human experience.

Carole

-- June 30, 2008 9:47 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole, thanks for your comments.

I don't know, in the first place, if GW is a lie or not. My hunch is, the earth is so complex, and interconnected, on so many levels that we haven't even begun to fathom, as humans. The hardest thing, I find to believe, is the human arrogance that thinks it understands something that is far beyond itself.

Try reading something by Michael Behe. He's an Intelligent Design advocate, critic of Darwinism, and leading bio-chemist, who wrote a great book, "Darwin's Black Box". One of the things he explains in the book is how, in Darwin's day, people like Charles Darwin thought thought a human cell was as simple as a child's play set. Well, a little over a hundred years later, that naive view of reality has vanished, like the mist on a pond, in the morning sun, and the "simple cell" turns out to be more complex than a 747. Every saw a wiring diagram for a 747? I have. It's incredibly complex, and detailed.

My point is, nature is complex. It is complex, far beyond our understanding at this point. It's surprising to me that someone of your background in science, and intelligence, hasn't figured that out yet. Likewise, if a cell is that complex, that we barely understand it, at this point, nature, and the earth, with trillions of interconnected beings and processes, is beyond our capacity to fully comprehend, at this point.

And there is truckload after truckload of scientific evidence of the inept stupidity of humans interacting with the enviroment, and producing unexpected or catastrophic results, to make me cautious.

Because of this, I say that people should slow down, when it comes to nature. We need to be cautious. And personally, I'd rather err on the side of caution, when it comes to God's creation, and the planet that gives you and me the oxygen to breathe.

I'd like to live in a simple black and white world, where, based on incredibly incomplete information, and limited knowledge, but unlimited self-confidence, I could rattle off confident predictions about what are, and are not, lies, and predictions about what we are doing, to the earth. However, I was created to think, as well as feel, and such a simplistic view of reality eludes me.

So, when it comes to nature, under the circumstances, I say, go slow, be cautious. It's the only planet we have right now. I love my children too much, not to care, and think, and doubt.

And the underlying principle behind the Global Warming crowd is to try to minimize human impact on nature. Sounds like a good and safe and conservative principle to me. Quite moral too, since humans have a huge moral responsibility, based on instructions from the Creator, to look after his creation. I take that very seriously.

Sorry, Carole, I enjoyed your post, but you're wrong.

-- June 30, 2008 11:11 PM


Roger wrote:

Carl,

Hi there ol fart, how are you doing nowadays?

You've been a bit invisible for a while.

The Iraq contracting job have been hanging, because of troop reductions, but I will be in Houston the 7th this coming month for indoctrination, (nice word for "cultural sensitivity training" I guess), extensive medical, some ABC training, and will then be shipped straight to Iraq, so I am doing some last minute wrap up around here.

While I am gone, you take care of the T&B, ok?

Its going to be a deal with a rotating 4 months on, and 10 days back in the US, and I am not sure how the communication will be from there, have got different signals that it is ok to bring your lap top, the other is that the lap top may be confiscated if I take it with me and go into certain military bases, so for now I will leave it, and find out how the scene is over there, and maybe bring it next tour, or have it Fedexed, we will see.

Are you still in the CG? You talked about either end of the contract with them or retirement or something along that line in the past, I'm getting old and suffer from CRS, so the details are a bit foggy.

I don't have my old cell # no more, and I have shot an e-mail on your e mail address in the past, but have had no luck reaching you, I still have my old e-mail address, hope you've still got it, would be really fun getting a sign of life from your end.

The Dinar,

Carl, tell me about it, endless hopes, and for sure the long term theory seems to have won. "Nothing new on the Dinar front".

It sure keeps the interest on the Middle East up.

I like to watch the side shows, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas and some occasional Afghanistan report.

As it seems now, if an RV comes, I'll take it, but about this time , looking back, it is pretty obvious that there will not be any kind of repeat of the Kuwait Dinar after the Gulf War in the early -90's.

The Iran thingie will probably start flaring up, a year after your prediction, but still, you where right, there is no way around it.

I strongly doubt that this will be a situation in where the war will fist be sold to the public ,as the Iraq war was, with endless completely ineffective UN resolutions, but instead, we will wake up ( in Iraq anyway) with air raid sirens, in the middle of the night, announcing that it is now on.

A removal of the Iranian regime is a must, just a couple of Clintonian cruise missiles will just prolong the pain, for all parties, and make it harder when the real business is starting at a later time.

So I believe that the real business will start, once the Israelis have done their job.

It's for sure brewing, and it should be, the clock is ticking, and pretty soon the Iranians have nuclear war heads.

The end result, tie Iranian regime ousted, Iran will then become a friendly nation, with a new democratic regime. The old school (Revolutionary Guard) will do an insurgency, they will not have peoples support, and will be short lived.

I think that any coalition powers that are ousting the Iranian regime are coming to Iran, with a lot of experience on Arabian social reactions, and how to handle it, and are so much more prepared for a post war scene, than the last time around. The knowledge will be based on all the mistakes, and successful actions done in Iraq.

We have a lot of cultural understanding now, that we didn't have a single clue about the first time around.

The end result, an Iranian country, that is our ally, that are getting reconstructed, that are developing their 30 year neglected oil fields, (about the same decline and neglect in time as the Iraqis have experienced), no nuclear threat to anyone, no support to Hamas or Hezbollah, a secure gulf.

Imagine that....

No one wants war, but by necessity, this one ...I can't wait.

-- July 1, 2008 2:15 AM


Roger wrote:

Tim B.

I share your enjoyment in nature, and have myself strong attachment to it. I was born above the Polar Circle, and have seen scenery's that few have seen.

In wintertime we had no sun, or maybe a bit twilight around noon, in summertime the sun never set, but just rotated around and around.

I used in my very early years ski over a lake to school, and wintertime it was dark when I went there, and dark when I went home.

I was so taken by the scenery, Aurora Borealis would play , and lit up the whole sky, from horizon to horizon, with drapes of colors, ever shifting. Times without Aurora Borealis, would give me a night sky that was unbelievable, it was like skiing amongst stars.

I live now in California, close to Yosemite, up in the foot hills, where the old Gold Rush was once upon a time.

Me, and a friend of mine, frequently goes into the forest, and camp, shoot, or prospect.

We have on many occasions loaded up with all the gears, but ended up just four wheeling around and stopped at different locations, and did nothing but just admire the scenery, without turning a stone, shooting one shell, or throwing one hook into a stream somewhere, and came home completely satisfied with the outing.

I may arm myself because of bear, but would not necessarily shoot a bear for the only sin he did, being a bear.

I care for the environment, and feel it is part of us in many ways.

We however must be able to use the environment to our favour, right, responsible and ethically, but a ban on the use is as abberated as the old American natives believing that EVERYTHING out there is holy.

I have seen Hetch Hetchy, a reservoir, that is made in Yosemite National Park, and delivers the drinking water to San Fransisco. It is a very well made dam, made very natural, and it could be as natural as any other lake in the area. In my opinion Hetch Hetchy enriches the area, with a wide variety of wild life.

Being out there , it is funny, I don't see the stickers so common here, "Restore Hetch Hetcy". Those people that run around with those stickers, well they may do a lot of things, but they are never in or around Hetch Hetchy. I know so because I am.

The people with the bumper stickers, are the loudest of them all, they are the ones that are telling us what is good for us, and what nature is. They don't, they are not there, they are busy getting drunk in a fraternity house, or attending the endless Hemp festivals that they think will connect them to mother nature in one way or the other.

(Funny those Hemp people, they have an idea that Hemp is the solution to everything, clothes, furniture, fuel and all that jazz, but the reality is , you can smoke the stuff, so why not try to make it legit, with other uses as well, that will make it available everywhere..... to smoke)

These "green culture" people, that are loud and demanding on how to use our nature is the opinion formers for the legislative side. Bay Area in California is a complex of cities, San Jose, San Fransisco, Oakland, Berkley, San Mateo, and many more, that all connects into a big city with a bay into it, housing about 5 million people.

I have been in that area numerous times, and the nature down there is pretty smoggy, trees are where parks are, and a lot of bare rocks. It has it's charm, I'm not saying that it is an ugly place, but I strongly doubt that this place is a place, where you can base your opinion about nature, to such an extent that you know what is best for others.

Much is formed on scientific facts, but most is formed on loud speakers.

Nature has in this country been made so "holy" that we are denied access to the very nature that we have trusted the authorities to care for it, for us.

Virtually ALL national forests have gates to all the roads, the authorities have a schedule when they will be open. Usually summer time, but some gates are permanently closed.

A very big army of green men, in green cars are patrolling the forest.

The rules and regulations on how to fish, hunt, prospect or any activity you want to do in you own forest is regulated to the point that it is almost impossible to do it.

If you deviate from pre assigned camp grounds, you need a wilderness permit. You need a permit for making fire, even a portable stove. You need a permit for fishing, the permit have to be mounted on your body in a visible way for a Ranger to see it from a distance. Campgrounds are 15 Dollars a night.

If you are at a state beach, you can go in with a vehicle during a certain time period, if you are still inside the gates after a certain hour, you will get a ticket, you can only park in designated areas, if you want to park and walk to the beach.

This was only a very very short list of do's and dont's, if you go into each activity, dredging, you will have a long list of how big of a nozzle you can have, in what rivers, and the "wild and scenic" rivers, are pretty much a place where anyone doing anything is prohibited to, and they seem to be multiplying every year.

Hunting, you need to do the academy of hunting before you know all the rules and regulations.

Wood cutting, don't even think of picking up a couple of sticks, unless you have the proper punched tags, your fire extinguisher , and everything else in order, your vehicle WILL be confiscated otherwise.

All this is for the common good I suppose, but these lawmakers that have been listening to these loud "green nature" people, easily get an idea that these clowns actually know anything.

They don't have a clue, and the end result is that all the nature that we have, that we own, as the people of this country, is effectively take away from us completely.

Tim, I am pretty sure that that is one way of actually preserving it, but then for what, we might as well have a couple of black holes where the forest is, it is as restricted area as the forest anyway.

W must USE the nature , yes Tim, as you say, respectfully and ethically, but restrictions on it, in such a way that you can not build a chicken farm, because there have to be a biological study of the proposed five acres first, in order to find out if the chicken farm will do any harm to the environment is just dumb.

It sounds stupid, but in out county it happened, in the study, some biologists, from the Bay Area, (Berkeley) went up to the site and found some kind of bug they have never seen before ( they have probably never seen any other bugs in the first place, but that's another story) and the chicken farm project was shut down.

Nature can't be that "holy" that we can't use it.

If we can't drill for oil, because we want happy caribous, (I know about caribous, my family in Europe have a right to keep them, care for them, and mark them, as a kid I used to be pretty good with the lasso, when they were herded in, for the annual marking). The Alaskan pipeline have actually helped the caribous, by providing shelter, evident by their behaviour, they choose to hurdle underneath the pipeline in bad weather, so I guess it is all a natural behaviour.

If we can not make a ditch to irrigate acres and acres of farmland, because the pond the water is coming from, have the unique, three eyed, spigot fish, we have then made the three eyed spigot fish more important than the other specie, the human race.

We must be able to drill for oil, mine for whatever mineral we need, burn wood, fish hunt, and use all the resources we have, and as long as we are restricting ourselves we are only holding ourselves down.

Humans have in the past ..granted, been very irresponsible with nature, but, we can not let the present need dictate how we use the nature, based on old overfishing, pollution, and landscape destruction.

That is a view point that says :

If humans are using the nature, he will screw up, so the best solution is to forbid his use of the nature.

-- July 1, 2008 3:45 AM


Roger wrote:

GOD IS GREAT

Go to YouTube.

Dial in key word "How to hook up with 72 virgins"

Notice that for each greande this insurgent is feeding into the grenade launcing tube,, he is screaming "GOD IS GREAT"

-- July 1, 2008 6:07 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Scripture is clear on all fronts, that The CREATOR is to be worshiped, NOT His creation.

I'm disappointed that you would attempt to shut down dialog by claiming that the issue is SO complex that it is arrogant to participate in a meaningful discussion whereby the theory of GW is overwhelmingly agreed to be unsubstantiated , contradictory and politicized for purposes of perpetuating an agenda which once again, is divisive and fits into the rest of the "lies" of the liberal agenda, leading to and promoting the social engineering that Rob has alluded to.

I think your claiming to be "sorta" liberal, may be equivalent to someone claiming to be sorta pregnant.

Carole

-- July 1, 2008 6:49 AM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim:

Regardless of whether you think I am wrong or not does not alter the radical lefts agenda to radically change America and the world. Anyone not agreeing with their orthodoxy is labeled backwards as you have done in your previous post.

Cocnerning global warming, an open letter was sent to the Secretary General to Ban Ki-Moon on December 13,2007. There are several sifnificant statements made to the Secretary General. I have enclosed a few of them.
"The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC's conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of which, because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it. z Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the migration of temperature-sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie outside the bounds of known natural variability.

z The average rate of warming of 0.1 to 0. 2 degrees Celsius per decade recorded by satellites during the late 20th century falls within known natural rates of warming and cooling over the last 10,000 years.

z Leading scientists, including some senior IPCC representatives, acknowledge that today's computer models cannot predict climate. Consistent with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th-century period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling".

Finally, allow me to include the list of signatories willing to renonce the liberal lefts agenda and debunk global warming.

Leading scientists, engineers and economists active in research of climate-related areas who signed the open letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations

Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, retired Vice-Chancellor and President, University of Canberra, Australia

Syun-Ichi Akasofu, PhD, Professor of Physics, Emeritus and Founding Director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks, U.S.

William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000

Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg, Canada

Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany

Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, UK; Editor, Energy & Environment journal

Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.

Reid A. Bryson, Ph.D. D.Sc. D.Engr., UNEP Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, U.S.

Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta, Canada

Robert M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia

Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada

Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.

Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand

David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma, U.S.

Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J., U.S.

Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, U.S.

Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former Dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monasy University, Australia

Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands

Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University, U.S.

Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario, Canada

David Evans, PhD, mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak', Australia

William Evans, PhD, Editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, U.S.

Stewart Franks, PhD, Associate Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia

R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa

Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey, U.S.

Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany

Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay

Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adj Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden

Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of 'Climate Change 2001,' Wellington, New Zealand

William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, U.S.

Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut, U.S.

Louis Hissink M.Sc. M.A.I.G., Editor AIG News and Consulting Geologist, Perth, Western Australia

Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona, U.S.

Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA

Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, U.S.; founder and director of the Institute of Economic Analysis, Russia

Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland

Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer modelling - virology, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden

Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia

Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia, U.S.

David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand

Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former Research Scientist Environment Canada; Editor "Climate Research” (03-05); Editorial Board Member "Natural Hazards, IPCC Expert Reviewer 2007

William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological organization’s Commission for Climatology

Jan J.H. Kop, M.Sc. Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Professor of Public Health Engineering, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands

Professor R.W.J. Kouffeld, Emeritus Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Salomon Kroonenberg, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

Hans H.J. Labohm, PhD, economist, former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of International Relations), The Netherlands

The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby, economist; Chairman of the Central Europe Trust; former Chancellor of the Exchequer, U.K.

Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary, Canada

David R. Legates, PhD, Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, U.S.

Marcel Leroux, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS

Bryan Leyland, International Climate Science Coalition, consultant - power engineer, Auckland, New Zealand

William Lindqvist, PhD, consulting geologist and company director, Tiburon, California, U.S.

Richard S. Lindzen, PhD, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S.

A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors

Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia, U.S.

Richard Mackey, PhD, Statistician, Australia

Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany

John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist, former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand

Alister McFarquhar, PhD, international economist, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K.

Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph, Canada

John McLean, Climate Data Analyst, computer scientist, Melbourne, Australia

Owen McShane, B. Arch., Master of City and Regional Planning (UC Berkeley), economist and policy analyst, joint founder of the International Climate Science Coalition, Director - Centre for Resource Management Studies, New Zealand

Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Canada

Frank Milne, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Economics, Queen's University, Canada

Asmunn Moene, PhD, former head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway

Alan Moran, PhD, Energy Economist, Director of the IPA's Deregulation Unit, Australia

Nils-Axel Morner, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden

Lubos Motl, PhD, physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic

John Nicol, PhD, physicist, James Cook University, Australia

Mr. David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa, Canada

James J. O'Brien, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University, U.S.

Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia

Garth W. Paltridge, PhD, atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia

R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Canada

Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota, U.S.

Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia

Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan, Canada

Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Planetary Geology and Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences

Alex Robson, PhD, Economics, Australian National University

Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch Chief - Safety, Quality and Environment, Royal Netherlands Air Force

R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, U.S.

Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands

Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C., Canada

Tom V. Segalstad, PhD, (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology, University of Oslo, Norway

Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA, U.S.

S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and former director, U.S. Weather Satellite Service

L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario, Canada

Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, U.S.

Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm, Sweden

Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

Dick Thoenes, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands

Brian G Valentine, PhD, PE (Chem.), Technology Manager - Industrial Energy Efficiency, Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science, University of Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC, U.S.

Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD, geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand

Len Walker, PhD, power engineering, Pict Energy, Melbourne, Australia

Edward J. Wegman, Bernard J. Dunn Professor, Department of Statistics and Department Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.

Stephan Wilksch, PhD, Professor for Innovation and Technology Management, Production Management and Logistics, University of Technology and Economics Berlin, Germany

Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland

David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng., UN IPCC Expert Reviewer, energy consultant, Virginia, U.S.

Raphael Wust, PhD, Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Australia

A. Zichichi, PhD, President of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva, Switzerland; Emeritus Professor of Advanced Physics, University of Bologna, Italy.

The science does not support a claim of man made climate change. In fact, an increase or decrease in tempature is in fact cyclical and within normal parameters of scientific research.

I do not think I have anything backwards. Instead, I think I am right on target when it comes to social progressives and their intent on altering America into an unrecognizable form foreign to our founding fathers.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 9:27 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

What is the CBI doing regarding the value of the Iraqi Dinar. In my view, not much. Many of us have had our Dinars in hand for sometime and we are still waiting on any significant change in its value.

The breif article below should stir some conversation about the Central Bank of Iraqs intent with the Dinar.
__________________________________________________________

Decline of Inflation in Iraq, Efforts to Remove "Zeros" from Dinar

Muzhir Muhammad Salih, adviser to the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, has announced that the annual inflation in Iraq dropped to 14% in 2007, a massive drop from the 77% recorded for 2006, according to figures released by the Central Bank's inflation indicator.
(www.noozz.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 9:34 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Iraq Sunni bloc on verge of rejoining government
Tue Jul 1, 2008 8:49am EDT

By Mohammed Abbas and Wisam Mohammed

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's main Sunni Arab bloc is close to rejoining the Shi'ite-led government, officials said on Tuesday, a move that would amount to a long-awaited political breakthrough.

Getting the Accordance Front to return to government after it quit nearly a year ago is widely seen as a key step in reconciling feuding factions after years of sectarian conflict. Sunni Arabs have little voice in the current cabinet, which is dominated by Shi'ites and ethnic Kurds.

Asked if the Front was set to rejoin, spokesman Salim al-Jubouri said: "Yes. Many of our demands have been executed ... sharing of responsibility, the issuance of the amnesty law."

An amnesty law passed in February has freed many prisoners from the minority Sunni Arab community. Sunni Arabs form the bulk of inmates after security forces detained thousands in security sweeps at the height of a Sunni Arab insurgency.

Jubouri said the Front had put forward names for cabinet posts to Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said Maliki would submit the names and their proposed ministries before a parliamentary vote, although he did not say when.

"There has been agreement with the Accordance Front that their share will be six ministerial posts, except the post of the Planning Ministry, which will be decided later," he said.

The Front pulled out of Maliki's cabinet last August, demanding the release of mainly Sunni Arab detainees and calling for a greater say in security matters.

On several occasions in the past it has appeared ready to rejoin the government, only for obstacles to suddenly emerge.

The Front wanted the ministries of planning, culture, foreign affairs, higher education, women, and a post of deputy prime minister, as well as either the justice or transport ministries, Jubouri said. Some of these are vacant.

CIVILIAN DEATH TOLL FALLS IN JUNE

The apparent political progress coincides with violence levels hovering at four-year lows in Iraq.

The number of civilians killed in June fell despite a few big bombings, government figures showed on Tuesday.

Numbers from the Health Ministry showed 448 civilians were killed in June, from 505 in May. The May figure was down from 968 civilian deaths in April, a month when fighting spiraled between Shi'ite militias and security forces.

U.S. troop deaths in Iraq rose to 29 in June from 19 in May, according to the independent website icasualties.org, which tracks American casualty figures.

The May number was the lowest since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. In June last year, 101 U.S. troops were killed.

The five-year-old war in Iraq has claimed the lives of more than 4,000 American soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis.

The May number was the lowest since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. In June last year, 101 U.S. troops were killed.

The five-year-old war in Iraq has claimed the lives of more than 4,000 American soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis.

Despite the improved security, U.S. generals have stressed the gains are both fragile and reversible.

That was shown in March and April, when government offensives against Shi'ite militias sparked a surge in violence in the capital Baghdad and other cities.

U.S. officials credit the turnaround in security to President George W. Bush's decision to send extra troops to Iraq, a rebellion by Sunni tribal leaders against al Qaeda, and a ceasefire by anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The U.S. military is close to completing a drawdown of more than 20,000 combat troops that were sent to Iraq in early 2007 to pull the country back from the brink of sectarian civil war.

The last of the five extra combat brigades sent to Iraq is expected to leave this month, reducing troop numbers to 140,000, a level roughly the same as when Bush ordered the buildup.
(www.reuters.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 9:38 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

Talabani: Iraq's reconstruction needs years, efforts, funds 01/07/2008 15:44:00

Baghdad (NINA)- President Jalal Talabani said Iraq needs years, intensive efforts and millions of Dollars to be reconstructed and rehabilitated. In a speech delivered at the 23rd conference of the International Socialist Organization
(www.ninanews.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 9:40 AM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

A tough hurdle as Iraqis talk security with Washington
By Safa A. Hussein

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

01 July 2008 (The Daily Star)
Print article Send to friend
In the next few months, Iraqi leaders may have to make tough historic decisions that will not only affect the future of Iraq for many years to come but may also determine their own political future as well. President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have already agreed on a statement of principles for the negotiations, setting a July 31, 2008, target date to formalize US-Iraq economic, political and security relations. The two negotiating teams have been talking since March.

These negotiations present a huge challenge for the Iraqis. There are important differences between the positions of the two negotiating parties, particularly on security-related issues: the mission of the American troops, the authority to conduct military operations in Iraq, the detention of Iraqi citizens or residents, immunity for civilian security contractors, and the number of US bases.

These differences are further complicated by the political environment in the United States, Iraq and the region. First, the negotiations are taking place in the shadow of the November 2008 US presidential election and despite high American public opposition to the Iraq war. Second, the agreements are shaping up as a major political battleground between America and Iran. And third, the same agreements can exacerbate already existing divisions within Iraqi society.

Iraqis and Americans agree on the mission of the American forces in the long term - in other words training, equipping and providing expertise to Iraqi forces. However, the United Nations mandate under which the US-led forces operate in Iraq will end by December 2008. Iraq's government realizes that its security forces are not yet able to stand alone against foreign and terrorist threats. Hence Iraqis want a commitment from the United States to assist them to defend Iraq when requested.

The Bush administration, on the other hand, believes that the current Congress is not willing to commit the US to a long-term security role in Iraq. The war in Iraq is a top concern of American voters in the 2008 presidential campaign season. The two presumptive nominees for the major political parties, Republican Senator John McCain and Democratic Senator Barack Obama, have greatly differing positions on the war. Further, the war involves enormous costs that, according to a February 2008 estimate, have totaled $608.3 billion for FY2001-FY2008. In addition, there is the need for more troops in Afghanistan.

Hence the Bush administration seeks to reach non-binding agreements to avoid the need for congressional approval: a status of forces agreement, or SOFA, that covers issues like entry and exit rights and legal jurisdiction over US military personnel and a vaguely defined "strategic framework" dealing with the broader US-Iraqi security and political relationship. The next president will undoubtedly want to take a close look at these agreements so as to avoid losing the endgame in Iraq, especially after the progress achieved lately.

The authority to conduct military operations and detentions is another major Iraqi concern. The US position is that in the short term, while Iraq still needs the assistance of US troops to fight terrorism, Iraq must not tie the hands of those troops and must authorize them to conduct military operations and detentions. The Iraqi government views such an authorization as similar to the United Nations mandate that Iraq is working hard to end.

The other sensitive issue is civil and criminal jurisdiction. The US wants to have jurisdiction over offenses and crimes committed by its force members. Iraqis recognize the sensitivity of this issue, bearing in mind cultural differences and different penal codes regarding severe transgressions such as murder and sex crimes. They realize that matters like these have easily developed into political issues in other nations that have such agreements.

Ceding authorization to conduct military operations and carry out detentions as well as jurisdiction over crimes committed on Iraqi soil is considered by many Iraqis as a violation of sovereignty. The Iraqi government, still struggling toward political reconciliation, cannot afford to sign an agreement that is not approved by leading political actors.

These controversies make it very difficult to conclude the agreements by July or even by the end of this year, given presidential elections in the US and provincial elections in Iraq in the coming months. If an agreement is reached without addressing Iraqi concerns, it will have disastrous consequences for Iraq and these will necessarily affect US interests.

If there is a failure to compromise and accelerate the negotiations, Iraq has the option to ask for a six-month or year-long extension of the UN mandate. This should either allow it to reach an acceptable agreement or give Iraq time to build up its forces and stand alone.
(www.iraqupdates.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 9:43 AM


Carole wrote:

Rob,

You will stay on the hero list forever.........post 90,000 articles a day....it will forever be okay with me !:)

Carole

-- July 1, 2008 10:26 AM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

If I am wrong....looks like I am in good company. If you are right, your buddies are Al Gore and the likes of him.

Put alittle sugar on the "crow"...it goes down alot easier.

Sorry, couldn't resist !

Carole

-- July 1, 2008 10:33 AM


tim bitts wrote:

Wow,

I really know how to stick my finger, in a hornet's nest! What fun!!

Carole,

Thanks for your response.

No, I don't worship nature. I just feel that modern man, and woman, is living in a state of techno-ignorance, that comes from being disconnected from Creation. I feel sad for all the millions of Americans who sit in their metal boxes, stuck in traffic, inching along in traffic, smelling smog, on their way to work, and never realizing how cut off they are from nature.

As for Al Gore, I don't know anything specific about his policies. I just know we have to change our practices, as humans, for a cleaner earth. You watch, Carole, as what I say comes true: Smelly, gas based, internal combustion engines are on their way out, in the long view. American creativity will forge a better and richer world. An oil-based economy is on it's way out.

If you have young grandchildren, think down the road: when they are over 50, they won't be driving internal combustion engines, based on oil.

And again, put on your thinking cap, Carole. One thing you will eventually figure out is that Al Gore, and his greenies, are the worst thing to happen to terrorism and Islamo-fascism. You are so fixated on personality, you aren't thinking, Carole.

90% of the revenue of most countries that produce terrorists, comes from oil. At the risk of repeating myself for the 400th time on this blog, America is funding both sides, in the war on terror. So, any moves toward cleaning up greenhouse gases will naturally mean cutting back drastically on oil, finding alternatives, though not cutting back on lifestyle.

That means Arabs can go starve in the dark. People like you are keeping America "addicted to oil", as the President said. Well, your dealer want to kill you. Grow up, and get off the stuff.

All of this stuff, on your part, is just fear of change, addiction to a way of life that will inevitably change, and also not thinking, and not realizing America can solve it's problems, including terrorism, by getting off oil. Weakness and fear won't last forever.

Oil isn't reality. It's just a temporary rest-stop for the American economy. Better ways to run an economy will be found.

Al Gore never sold his views as a way of combatting terrorism, but that's what getting off oil means. And if you ask, am I in favour of making America stronger because she's no longer beholden to a bunch oil sheiks, that want to destroy her? Well, guilty as charged.

So, again a prediction: Republicans and Democrats will come together, shortly, to pursue a long range energy policy that is good for the United States. It will take a while, but America will get off oil. And Republicans will be happy about it, because they are worried about terrorism, and weaning America off oil will send a final deathblow to radical Islamist societies. And Democrats will support it, because it will lead to a cleaner enviroment.

Both sides have constituencies that have something to gain, by supporting the same policies.

Leaders of both parties know this full well, they know the mixture of truth and political b.s. they are feeding the public, and people like you, and it's only petty policies, and vested interests keeping America from moving forward. Eventually, even people like you will take off the ideological blinders, and actually start thinking again. President Bush certainly knows all this, very well. He's fascinated by alternative energy, knows a lot about it, and uses it on his ranch, in Texas.

So, sugar on my crow? What a waste of sugar...... Brazil has better uses for sugar. They run their economy on it. Brazil has the world's first sustainable biofuels economy, where they make ethanol to run their economy....So save your sugar, Carole. There are better uses for it, than coating crows. (Although I do like the musical group, Counting Crows!)

Carole, you strike me as a smart woman. You'll figure out I'm right, eventually.

So, here's a prediction: For the rest of your life, you will watch, as America successfully tackles it's energy problem, and you will see more and more, every day, in the media, on all the positive, though at times painful changes, that take place, as America re-organizes. I saw a poll yesterday, that asked Americans: Do you think the high price of oil will change the way you live? 90% said yes.

The changes have begun already. And for those people who read this blog, and are silly enough to believe the days of cheap oil are coming back, well, every day, you will watch that, not happening. This is not your daddy's oil crisis, like the one in the 1970s. After that one, cheap oil came back. Not so this time. Cheap oil is gone for good.

Get used to it.

-- July 1, 2008 12:04 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Rob N.,

Thanks for your reply. Let' not forget that we share a lot of the same beliefs, like opposition to gun control, abortion, gay marriage,

Rob, getting off foreign oil is possible. It's already being done, in Iceland.

Iceland used to be one of the poorest economies around. Then, they decided, they had enough of paying the high prices, they were tired of being beholden to foreigners. So, they decided to get off foreign oil. As I said, when they started getting off foreign oil, they were poor.

Now, they are the fourth richest country, per capita, in the world, all produced without importing a lot of oil. Renewable energy produces 70% of the nation's primary energy. Electricity is produced by geo-thermal resources, which America also has, in incredible abundance, but hasn't developed.

So, like I said, renewable energy will lead to economic prosperity. America is already rich. America will just get a lot richer, once they are green.

And Icelanders are car-demons, like Americans. They love their cars. It's just that they use fuel cells, and have hydrogen fuelling stations around the country. The hydrogen is produced, using geo-thermal energy.

And the country expects to be 100% energy independent, by 2050.

And America has far, far greater resources, and scientific expertise, than tiny Iceland. America can perfectly well get off oil, Rob. Just as soon as Democrats and Republicans can get together, to plan a more sensible energy future.

And there's no need to get off cars, and go to public transport, as you suggested. That's just plain silly. It doesn't have to be done, and no one, Republican or Democrat, would go for it.

As another example of green energy efficiency leading to more money, a friend of mine runs a local Wal-Mart. He told me they introduced energy saving measures. The largest one, was they replaced all of their lighting, in his store, with high efficiency, low energy use lighting. And their electricity bill fell by 50%. That's a lot of money. I'm sure you've been to Wal-Mart thousands of times. That's a lot of lighting in there, isn't it? Yeah, and a lot more money in Wal-Mart's pocket, once they do the smart thing, and go green.

And that means, bottom line, lower prices to customers, which raises the standard of living for all Americans. And more profit for shareholders, which means a richer America.

So, go green. It's good for the wallet.

-- July 1, 2008 12:59 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

The Price of Oil

The Investment U e-Letter: Issue #791
Friday, May 2, 2008:

The Price of Oil: Is This Hot Commodity Becoming the "Mother of All Bubbles?"
by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U
Investment Director, The Oxford Club

We've all heard the stories about the price of oil . . .

Most of the world's major oil deposits have already been discovered. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. The remaining oil supplies are tough to get at - and expensive to recover.

Meanwhile, the world's demand for oil keeps rising as more people around the globe - especially in emerging giants like India and China - set up factories, buy cars, take flights, heat their homes, and pound the table for "more juice."

Then there are political question marks. Iraq is a mess. Russia is inclined to use its resource exports as a carrot on a stick, depending on the mood. And Nigeria is a special basket case…

The Price of Oil Hits Record Close

Last week, for instance, an escalation in attacks by militants in the Niger Delta sent the price of oil to a record close. Exxon has said the situation is so bad that its production is now closed and it is unable to meet its contractual obligations.

Royal Dutch and other Western oil companies there have the same problem. Not good. Nigeria is Africa's largest producer and the world's eleventh biggest.

No wonder oil is trading near $120 a barrel.

This is the back story. But it's important to understand that it is only that, a story. It doesn't tell us where oil should be trading. Ultimately, that will be decided by supply and demand, not by this week's headlines or short-term speculation.

A lot of smart people are beginning to believe this bull market will die hard. Whether you agree or not, it's worth listening to their side.

Oil Becomes "The Mother of All Bubbles"

According to Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, oil has now become "the mother of all bubbles." He has a few pertinent facts on his side.

The U.S. is the world's largest oil consumer. Yet our economy is in a slump. Despite the sharp rise in the price of oil this year, oil demand in the U.S. is actually down 2% so far.


According to the federal Energy Information Administration, high prices and a weak economy will knock down U.S. oil consumption by 90,000 barrels a day this year.


The situation is similar in many other parts of the world. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based energy watchdog of the world's richest nations, just lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth by 460,000 barrels a day. The IEA also sees supply from outside OPEC growing by 815,000 barrels a day, the strongest growth since 2004.
According to Mr. Lynch, "The run-up in the price of oil we're seeing in the last six weeks or so has happened while the fundamentals have, generally speaking, gotten bearish."

Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup in New York, agrees. He says the oil bubble is "still expanding" and insists "there is no supply-demand" deficit.

So far the futures market has shrugged off these arguments. Oil is up roughly 25% this year and the price of oil has almost doubled since the start of 2007.

And who can say? Maybe oil will trend higher. Perhaps much higher, especially if we see a major supply disruption.

The High Price of Oil May Cause Its Own Collapse

But the high price of oil always sows the seeds of its own collapse. Consumers will start to conserve. Producers will search for oil that was once too costly to extract. Supply and demand will come back into balance.

Right now the bulls are having their way. But it would be foolish to believe there are no red flags on the horizon. Chief among these is that you keep hearing "the story."

You know the stories. "The internet changes everything." "They're not making any more real estate." "The price of oil has nowhere to go but up." We'll see…
(www.investmentu.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 1:21 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

The Peak Oil Myth

The Investment U e-letter: Issue #630
Friday, January 22, 2007

The Peak Oil Myth… Don't Go Broke On This Popular Investing Fallacy
by Alex Green, Investment Director, The Oxford Club

At an investment conference last year, I ran into an attendee who told me he had just put his entire fortune into oil stocks. Sadly, this was just as oil was crossing the $75 mark.

"Haven't you heard about Peak Oil?" he asked, looking incredulous. "According to The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), world oil production has already peaked. Our planet is certain to run out of fossil fuels in our lifetimes."

Whenever someone mentions the word "certain" in an economic forecast, I tend to shudder involuntarily. This time was no exception.

Peak Oil Theory goes something like this: Oil is a finite resource. Production has peaked. With the world's population surging and developing countries industrializing rapidly - especially giants like India and China - it's just a matter of time before demand outstrips supply, leading to sky-high oil prices.

That, of course, should cause oil stocks to soar. Ergo, we need to jump on energy stocks the way the Hunt brothers loaded up on silver.

I hate to be the skunk at the garden party, but there are quite a few holes in so-called Peak Oil Theory. Anyone who has bought into this idea may want to think again. It turns out that the Peak Oil Theory may actually be the peak oil myth, here's why…

Finite Resources and Peak Oil Theory

In 1930, the United States had 13 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. With those 13 billion barrels, the country fought World War II, energized the post-war economic boom, and fueled Americans' newfound love affair with the automobile. Sixty years later, how much of that 13 billion-barrel reserve do you suppose was left?

Omitting Alaska, the lower 48 states alone had proven reserves of 17 billion barrels, 31% more than in 1930.

The same thing happened in the Persian Gulf. In 1975, official reports concluded that the region had 74 billion barrels of oil. This was during the energy crisis. Americans were told that that the world had only enough fuel to last a couple more decades.

Yet by 1993, the official estimate was that Persian Gulf reserves exceeded 663 billion barrels, nine times as much as 20 years before.

"This time it's different," the Peak Oilers insist. Yet last year we saw the discovery of enormous new oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico. And let's not forget the large-scale processing of high-quality crude from Alberta's oil sands.

A Scientist's Perspective On Peak Oil

Further raining on Peak Oil's parade is Ray Kurzweil. Scientist and author Kurzweil insists that nanotechnology will make oil obsolete within two decades.

It sounds outlandish, I know. But hear him out.

"Even though our energy needs are projected to triple within 20 years," he wrote recently, "we'll capture that .0003 of the sunlight needed to meet all of our energy needs with no use of fossil fuels, by using extremely inexpensive, highly efficient, lightweight, nano-engineered solar panels. From there, the energy will be stored in safe, highly distributed fuel cells."

"Solar power," he insists "is now providing one part in a thousand of our energy needs but that percentage is doubling every two years, which means multiplying by a thousand in 20 years. Almost all of the discussions I've seen about energy fail to consider the ability of future nanotechnology-based solutions to solve this problem. This development will be motivated not just by concern for the environment, but by the $2 trillion we spend annually on energy. This is already a major area of venture funding."

I'll concede - and my wife will happily confirm - that I'm no nanotechnologist. And clearly much of what Kurzweil says is speculative. Yet plenty of scientists, including pioneering nanotechnologist Dr. Eric Drexler, argue that Kurzweil is correct.

But even if he's wrong, higher oil prices are an incentive to explore more broadly, extract more efficiently, and continue improving technology and energy alternatives. Higher oil prices also encourage greater conservation.

Note To Oil Investors: Don't Bet the Bank

So despite the population boom and increasing industrialization, banking on oil hitting the moon anytime soon is not a particularly sound bet.

And that's a good thing. Unless, of course, you happen to be a Middle East dictator, a Venezuelan socialist… or some poor sod banking on the peak oil myth.
(www.invetmentu.com)

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 1:23 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

If you want to know my view on nature, and why it inspires me, look up Ps 19:1

Rob,

With Peak Oil, you and I will both know the truth, in time. If the price of oil eventually falls, then Peak Oil was a lie and a scam. If, as I am guessing, it continues to stay high, then Peak Oil is the truth, at least in the sense that, all the cheap oil is nearly gone. We'll see.

So, keep looking for the price to drop. Look every day. And when it does, you'll know you are right.

-- July 1, 2008 1:35 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Carole:

Thank you for the kind words. I know we have had our disagreements in the past. Our disagreements pale in comparrison to the social engineering by the left that is permeating every facet of our society.

The going green community has a powerful ally in the mainstream media. The MSM is the lefts mouthpiece. It is no longer a convenient or acceptable for Americans to turn a blind eye or bury our heads in the sand in order to ignore the slippery slope this nation is on.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 1:41 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Rob,

very interestihg stuff, on nano-technology, and solar. Hadn't heard that one before. Thanks.

-- July 1, 2008 1:41 PM


Rob N. wrote:

Tim,

What I find interesting when discussing going green is the inconsistency between what is said and done. Your observation about the importance of independance from oil sounds good. I support drilling in the Anwar reserve and off of our own coast. I more interested in whether or not you drive a fossil fuel automobile or a hybrid. Do you recycle? When traveling what alternative form of transportation do you use other than an airplane. As you know an airplane burns fossil fuels.

It is interesting to me Al Gore uses fossil fuel modes of transportation while receiving awards and the nobel peace prize for his film an Inconvenient Truth.

To preach one principle while engaged in an opposite behavior is being hypocritical. If you are spouting the merits of going green while riding around in your fossil fuel car, your creditability is certainly in question.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 2:38 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

Your a character, and still one of my favorites on this blog, but you assume too much that my mind is closed to reasons for energy conservation and alternate energy uses. I believe strongly in both! I just refute the indictment of the GW freaks, that have lied about, politicized,and used some of nature's phenomena to advance a far more serious threat held in their doctrines associated with progressive secularism.

Thank you for the reference to PS.19:1. This scripture again points out the Perfect Revelation of the Lord. Some, however, give more worship to the "tree" and ignore worship to the "tree-maker". Of which the latter is the only one that has any meaning or relativity.
His Handiwork, given to us in Nature is a demonstration of His might, power and perfection. And another demonstration of His divine love for us. He has clearly put the pecking order in place, by giving humans complete dominion over His creations.

Should we reverence that? Absolutely! Should we cherish His gift to us? Without question! Should we worship those gifts? Not unless we intend to become "golden cow" makers. And in doing so completely offend and annihilate the relationship between Himself and His most treasured creation.......man.

Gonna be gone for a few days....enjoying nature....hopefully catching some of His fish ! :)

Ciao!

Carole

-- July 1, 2008 2:59 PM


Carole wrote:

Rob,

Last night had a sort of "Town Hall" meeting at my house, where the same conclusions were stated.....we can no longer pull the covers over our heads, and hope the boggy man will go away!

Those of us who thought we were going to enjoy retirement and insulate ourselves from the frivolous ventures and politics of the young....have to change course. It will be up to us Baby boomers to protect and advance the cause of freedom and fight a very good fight to turn the tide in this country.

The ballot box is proving to be impotent more and more with every breath of our ill-willed and dangerous judicial system,and those who man it. So, we must find other ways......

Not only the exploration of other ways, but intense consistent action will be required for a long long time!

Will be very interested in your ideas and thoughts.

Be back in a few days!

carole

-- July 1, 2008 3:11 PM


Carole wrote:

Tim,

As I was packing, I had a thought about your suggestion that freeing ourself up from oil will destroy the Middle East....etc.etc.

Well...what if the only value we have to them is our oil dependency? And the only thing that separates us from them giving complete alliegence to ALLAH, which would then make it not only sooooo much easier but almost a requirement to "kill the infidels".

Their greed so far, may be our only saving grace!

Carole

-- July 1, 2008 3:23 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Carole,

Happy trails, and thanks. You're one of my favorites, too.

As to the Arabs, a starving man, causes no trouble, Carole. Take away 90% of their income, and see what happens. They couldn't even afford the feed their people. Without oil, they could not afford weapons to fight us. They don't make anything. They'd be so weak, they'd be like a mosquito that Uncle Sam could just swat away. Terrorism depends on money and technology, from the West. Take away foreign dependency on oil, and their societies wither and die, and become no threat to anyone.

Rob N,

I agree, people should practice what they preach. I do recycle, I give money to enviromental groups, to advocate for change, and yes, I'm planning on buying a hybrid. I used to have a very large pickup truck, I used for work. I downsized to a Jeep, which is easier on gas. I'm still not happy. I've been looking at hybrids. Ford has a good hybrid SUV, the Escape, that I'm looking at buying this year.

People that bought hybrids a few years ago, were considered to be green radicals. Now that the price of gas has doubled, and hybrids like the Toyota Prius can get twice the gas mileage as a regular car, the green crowd is laughing all the way to the bank, as they drive by the gas station, with people like me, filling up. I plan to join them, in owning a hybrid.

I have some green stocks, in my investment portfolio, because I think that's a big part of the solution. Private enterprise will solve the energy problems, and will go green because it makes financial sense. As millions of investors like me, pour their hard earned savings into companies that come up with solutions, problems will be solved. That's how I'm doing my part.

It's not perfect, but it's a start. I'm turning green, as my money allows.

President Bush went green a long time ago. He's just not vocal about it. Whereas Al Gore, for all his big mouth, and talk of green, lives in one of the most enviromentally unfriendly houses in America. And he has no excuse. He has lots of money. There was a report about that, a while back, in the news. Someone did some monitoring, from a utility company in Tennessee, about the enviromental footprint of his house. It was a disaster. So, that's one reason not to respect Al Gore.

-- July 1, 2008 4:07 PM


Rob N. wrote:

All:

As it now stands we still do not have a national oil law. The oil minister is moving forward with TSAs under Saddam's Oil Law. Concerning long term oil contracts, the energy giant TOTAL does not look for any movement until 2009.

It seems we may need to be prepared to wait until next year before seeing any movement in the Dinars exchange rate.

Thanks,

Rob N.

-- July 1, 2008 4:41 PM


Tsalagi wrote:


If it's not one thing....it's another!! Oh well...on to plan B...move to Panama and lay on the beach!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Energy - Oil & Gas

Iraq fails to sign deals with global oil majors
Iraqi government says global oil majors refuse to offer consultancy based on fees.

http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php?refid=DH-S-01-07-2008&article=33165

-- July 1, 2008 6:52 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Roger,

Roger, I think you'd enjoy northern Canada. It's probably remind you of your boyhood home in, where is it, Finland?

We were talking about China, and America, and energy a couple of days ago. As you said in your post, there isn't much oil in China, and energy is pivotal to their future.

As we discussed before, America may be planning to have an "ace in the hole" in dealing with the Chinese. That ace being American control over oil. Well, the Chinese have a counter strategy to this.

China is doing a number of things to try to become energy independent, so they don't have to rely on fossil fuels. They are completing the Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydro-electric project in the world. Also, the Chinese are building some test cities, that incorporate all the best and latest green technology, and best city planning and architectural practices from around the world, combined with low energy use. A test city, with a population limit of half a million will be built.

After a couple of test cities, the best ideas will be combined, and China plans to build many many cities, based on this concept, so that they are able to house hundreds of millions of people, in quality urban enviroments, that are pleasant to live in, as well as incredibly energy efficient. That way, pressure one energy resources will be minimized.

Also, China is actively reducing the size of it's population, and plans to bring it down to less than half of what it currently is. Again, this will reduce pressure on resources, including energy resources.

And also, China is pursuing "fast-breeder nuclear technology". You're probably familiar with the technology, but here's a link to a Scientific American article on it, for a more technical discussion of the merits of this technology: http://www.winningreen.com/site/files/621/51019/200731/271263/SciAm-Dec05.pdf

A company in China, backed by the Chinese government, is planning on building dozens of these reactors, in China. These plants have no CO2 emmissions, that some people are worried about, and can supply unlimited power.

My guess is that China will do like Iceland, and create hydrogen, using nuclear power, and power cars and trucks this way, getting itself free of foreign oil, and at the same time, cutting back drastically on fossil fuels. If they are successful, this would strengthen China's place in the world.

America gave up on pursuing this technology 30 years ago, due to a bad decision by President Carter, but other countries like China are pursuing it, as a part of a push toward energy independence.

In the opinion of many, it is a safe technology, and can supply virtually unlimited power, which would mean China could conceivably attain energy independence, which would nullify American advantage over it's control of fossil fuels.

-- July 1, 2008 10:00 PM


tim bitts wrote:

Tsalagi, I like your plan B. But maybe Costa Rica for me.

-- July 1, 2008 11:05 PM


DinarAdmin wrote:

This is the new July Dinar Discussion page:

http://truckandbarter.com/mt/archives/2008/07/iraq_dinar_disc.html

-- July 2, 2008 12:02 AM