Truck and Barter: “America faces decades of red ink”

“The nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this earth is a government program.”
- President Ronald Reagan

I wonder why Americans politicians are not listening to their Comptroller General. Following are excerpts from a recent speech David Walker gave World Future Society conference (emphasis mine);

“But, first, I think it’s important to understand how myopia or shortsightedness can undermine a nation’s willingness and ability to act. In the case of the United States, strong economic growth, modest inflation levels, relatively low interest rates, and our current superpower status have given many policymakers and the American public a false sense of security about our nation’s current position and future prospects. Even though we know a demographic tsunami is building silently offshore—I’m referring to the impending retirement of our baby boom generation—America continues to party on and pile up record levels of debt….
In this spirit and in an effort to lead by example, GAO has published an unprecedented report called “21st Century Challenges” that asks a series of probing, sometimes provocative, questions about current government policies, programs, and operational practices. The report brings home how much of the U.S. government reflects organizational models, labor markets, life expectancies, transportation systems, security strategies, and other conditions that are rooted in the past…

The same goes for many tax policies. For example, just this summer, the U.S. government announced it will stop collecting a 3-percent tax on long-distance telephone calls. This doesn’t seem particularly startling until you realize that the tax had been introduced in 1898 to help pay for the Spanish-American War—a war that lasted only a few months!..

To better meet Congress’ information need on these emerging issues, GAO has developed an approach we call “grounded foresight.” We believe that to be credible, foresight work must have a strong factual and conceptual basis. Such work needs to ground all trends in evidence. After all, everyone’s entitled to their own opinion but not to their own facts! At the same time, such work also needs to clearly convey the uncertainty that’s inherent in foresight analysis.
Several key tools are available to encourage a forward focus. These tools include strategic planning, key national indicators, and scenario planning. Unfortunately, not all governments, including my own, have taken full advantage of these tools…

So what themes or trends does GAO expect to concentrate on in the coming years? Perhaps the most urgent issue is America’s worsening financial condition and growing long-term fiscal imbalance. Long-term fiscal analyses by GAO and our sister agency in the legislative branch, the Congressional Budget Office, show that federal deficits will grow to unsustainable levels in as little as two decades. At that point, without significant policy changes, federal deficits could reach 10 percent or more of our economy. States and local governments face increasing future fiscal pressures as well. Largely because of our aging population, rising health care costs, and relatively low revenues as a percentage of the economy, America faces decades of red ink.

Clearly, a crunch is coming and eventually all of government will feel its impact. If America continues on its current course, it’s only a matter of time before our ship of state hits the rocks. To put us on a more prudent and sustainable long-term path, the federal government must begin to make tough choices in connection with budget systems, legislative processes, entitlement programs, spending patterns, and tax policies. There’s no way we will grow our way out of our fiscal hole. The sooner we begin to act, the better because, as the world’s largest debtor nation, time is working against us.

As a citizen, a senior government official, and a father and grandfather, I take America’s fiscal imbalance very seriously. It’s not just a matter of numbers, it’s also about values. It’s easy to forget that deficits eventually have real-life consequences for real people, including our own children and grandchildren….

In the 21st century, an effective governance structure recognizes that more and more policy challenges require multilateral action. We’re also going to need greater coordination among various levels of government and the private and citizen sectors both domestically and internationally. The plain but simple truth is that no nation in today’s world, including the United States, can or should go it alone.

Beyond changing our governance approaches, we also need to consider how we keep score. In my view, key national and outcome-based indicators can help policymakers better assess a nation’s status, its progress over time, and its position relative to other nations on issues like public safety, health care, housing, education, and the environment. Such indicators can help guide strategic planning, facilitate foresight, inform agenda setting, enhance performance and accountability reporting, and encourage more informed decision making and oversight, including much-needed and long-overdue efforts to reengineer the base of our federal government….

If we expect to successfully tackle the tough issues I’ve described tonight, we’ll need more leaders in the United States and elsewhere with four key attributes. These attributes are courage, integrity, creativity, and stewardship.

By courage, I mean people who state the facts, speak the truth, and do the right thing even if it isn’t easy or popular. By integrity, I mean people who practice what they preach and lead by example. People who understand that the law and professional standards represent the floor of acceptable behavior. People who set their sights higher and strive to do what’s right. By creativity, I mean people who can think outside the box and see new ways to address old problems. Individuals who have foresight and can help others see the way forward. Finally, by stewardship, I mean people who don’t just generate positive results today but who also leave things better positioned for the future when they depart their jobs and this earth. That’s what real stewardship is all about, and we don’t have enough of it today.”

I think the Mr. David Walker should be invited for next year’s TED conference. Going over the World Future Society’s website I wasn’t impressed. They can learn a thing or two from the TED conference.

Truck and Barter

“America faces decades of red ink”

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