Truck and Barter

The IMF released its views on the US economy;

“The staff's baseline scenario for the short-term outlook is for a "soft landing," with growth easing to potential and inflation remaining contained. The housing market is likely to cool in response to high valuations and tightening financial conditions, reducing the impetus from consumption and residential investment, but strong fundamentals should continue to support business investment. The external deficit is likely to remain wide, but the drag on activity from net exports will lessen as growth abroad strengthens. On the supply side, solid productivity growth should accommodate wage gains while containing price pressures.

There appear to be competing risks to this outlook. The possibility of a more abrupt slowdown in the housing market, disappointments on the productivity front, and a disorderly adjustment to global imbalances, as well as the risk of higher oil prices more than offset the upside potential for business investment. Avian flu and geopolitical events represent further and more difficult to quantify downside risks. In contrast, inflation risks-which mainly stem from supply effects-seem mostly on the upside. These include the possibility of a larger-than-anticipated productivity slowdown pushing up unit labor costs, and the potential for pass-through of high commodity and oil prices.”

U.S. Is on Its Way to a Recession by Year End - Roubini

Related;

United States: 2006 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report and Selected Issues from IMF

Roubini of New York University Predicts a U.S. Recession -podcast from Bloomberg