Truck and Barter

For people interested in the possibilities of the question Kevin ventures below, here's a link to an interesting paper (RR: I've done it, but I'm not going to put the file up for free) about the potentials for implementing television via broadband connections.

I really can't imagine that this isn't the way television is going to move in a few years. TiVo, and similar DVR tools, strike me as a sort of an intermediary step in the process, a slight shift towards video on demand. The stream is still set, but the box lets you grab what you want from the stream. The issue now, of course, is just moving to the point where the stream only starts when you ask for it.

The bigger issue, however, is what happens to the traditional method of paying to produce TV. I recently read a brief discussion on someone's blog (and please, if you know where, post a comment and I'll make the appropriate attribution -- I dislike "disembodied" references) about the role advertising plays in "subsidizing" the production of the paper: the revenue from people buying a newspaper doesn't cover the cost of production. Since much the same occurs for TV, the idea that people are going to call up their own shows presents a massive problem. Do you want to spend the extra time downloading a show that has 11 minutes of commercials? Fully one third of a regular sitcom download would be for advertising. Basically, you'd be paying to watch ads. Ads, of course, that you'll simply skip or fast-forward through. (And I'd give it about 12 hours before someone cracks the Digital Rights Management encoding and starts posting "edited" versions of the shows online like they do now.)

My best guess right now is that we'll get closer to some sort of iTunes-like service for television shows. The hardest part, I would think, is figuring out the pricing structure. Right now I pay something to have basic cable through a digital box so I can use the DVR. But that's hundred of potential channels I can surf. The effective price per show is miniscule right now. Are you willing to pay even $0.50 to download an episode of Everybody Loves Raymond when you had 200 channels 24 hours a day for $49.95 a month? Perhaps the payments would be per studio/"network" (in quotes, given the antiquated notion that term takes on). $2.00 a month for everything NBC has to offer. I'd welcome it, personally.

Among the major benefits I could foresee? Shows more people want, and improved ability for smaller studios to compete. Given the ability to price discriminate at such a low level, there would be far more information about the demand for certain kinds of shows. Plus, as more popular distributors start charging more to offset server loads and bandwidth usage, people might be induced to check out the lower-price options, and start stumbling on shows they might not have seen before.

Maybe this isn't all that far away, either. Check out what the revitalized Battlestar Galactica has been doing with their site. Audio commentaries (like those found on DVDs) are available, and the entire first episode is viewable, commercial-free.

[Personal plug: This is one of the most intelligent series on TV now. Whatever conceptions you may have had about the original schlock-fest, this is radically different. Strip away the standard nods to the hardcore sci-fi fan base, and nothing else - especiallly not West Wing -- comes close to having so rich a discussion about subjects ranging from the tensions between branches of government, the definition of humanity, the role of secrecy and the State, even cloning and the use of torture. Agreeing with the slant of the show isn't necessary to appreciate their willingness to make the issues messy.]