March 16, 2005

Buffalo, NY to Become a "Hot" Real Estate Market?

By Kevin

In what seems like one of the most astonishing forecasts so far this year, John O. Norquist predicts that the new urban architecture of continually-depressed Buffalo, NY will lead to a boom real estate market over the next twenty years:

Buffalo may find itself in the forefront of tomorrow's urban revival, the keynote speaker for the "Smart Growth Is Smart Business" series told nearly 300 people Tuesday evening.

John O. Norquist, president of the Chicago-based Congress for New Urbanism and former mayor of Milwaukee, was the inaugural speaker at Nichols School for an eight-part series that will run through Dec. 8.

"I think Buffalo in the next 20 years will prove to be one of the best real estate markets in the United States," he began. Then the tall, bearded Norquist quipped, "You can start the process of ending your feelings of depression any time now."

Flashing images on the screen from cities around the world, Norquist made a case for the comeback of mixed-use city blocks with apartments above retail stores.

"Buffalo has a good architectural heritage with mixed-use buildings," he said. "This is illegal in most cities...."

"Some might have called it cluttered," he acknowledged, "but it has tremendous real estate value per acre. In fact, downtown Buffalo has higher value per acre than any other part of the city, because the urban core produces wealth and value."

By maintaining the old, he said, Buffalo has a treasure just waiting to be revealed.

Folks, I'm not convinced architecture can save Buffalo. After all, this is the Buffalo of $190,000 six-bedroom homes we're talking about. This is the Buffalo that lost 11% of its population in the 1990's. In 2000, the median value of homes was $59K, compared with $149K in the entire state. While the unemployment picture of Buffalo City improved markedly in 2004, the unemployment rate is still at 7.2% compared to a national rate of 5.4%. It's possible that Buffalo will see large gains in real estate prices, should the economy (and the weather) improve markedly, but I'm not convinced.

I really have only one question regarding this rosy forecast: Is Mr. Norquist investing his own retirement savings in Buffalo real estate?

Posted at March 16, 2005 11:11 AM

Comments

No amount of urban revival and smart growth will change the fact that Buffalo is going to change the fact that it's @*!&$#6 cold and snowy in the winter.

Comment by Brrrr at March 17, 2005 08:58 AM | Permalink

I'm a University of Buffalo grad, and an economic refugee from New York State, so I know what the fuck I'm talking about, unlike Norquist. Architecture has nothing to do with economic growth, and Buffalo (all of New York north of NYC, really) is depressed for a very simple reason: New York State is controlled by socialists, and has been for 50+ years.

The taxes in New York are simply insane. When I moved to Chicago from Buffalo, my house cost twice as much, but my propery tax was half as much. The income tax in Illinois is 3%, in New York it is 7%. The sales tax in my town is 6.5%, in Erie County it was 8.5%.

I don't know where you got the $190,000 figure, but that isn't the average sale price in the City of Buffalo. That would be more like $50,000. Back when I lived there in the mid ninetees, I read somewhere that there hadn't been housing price inflation in the City since the 1950s! If you bought a home in Buffalo for $25,000 in 1957, and sold it in 1997, you'd get $25,000!

Buffalo doesn't need smart growth, it needs GROWTH! Buffalo isn't declining because its suburbs are growing (the thesis behind smart growth), the WHOLE REGION from the Hudson River to the Niagara River is in steep decline.

Buffalo is no different from Rochester, Syracuse, Binghampton, or Albany. They all have the same problems, and smart growth is not the solution.

The biggest problem Buffalo has is that it has a midwestern economy (manufacturing) with an east coast tax structure. If it had Illinois' taxes, it would have Chicago's economy.

Comment by Buzzcut at March 17, 2005 12:40 PM | Permalink

Buzzcut,

The 190K figure was for an enormous house that would cost 1.5 million in northern VA. I should have been clearer, but I did note that the median value was 59K...

Comment by Kevin Brancato at March 17, 2005 12:53 PM | Permalink

Sorry, my bad. $59K is right on.

These smart growth monkies need to be beat down. Whatever Buffalo's problems, smart growth policies will make them worse. Europe has smart growth policies, that's why they grow at 1% per year.

Comment by Buzzcut at March 17, 2005 01:45 PM | Permalink

I wonder if Norquist has visited Buffalo recently.. Someone should just hand him a radio and tune it to 930 AM. Let him listen for about an hour and then he'll be rushing back to his typewriter to correct his story.

Comment by Jesse at March 21, 2005 11:44 AM | Permalink

There seem to be duplexes in decent areas of Buffalo for $60K, maybe a bit more when fixed up. Rents in the $350 - $450 range per unit. Even if there are high vacancy rates in Buffalo in general, it would seem hard to pass up investment property at these rates, right?

Comment by redwagon at April 1, 2005 09:30 PM | Permalink

What's scary is that $60 duplexes have been available in Buffalo for the last ~20 years!

Comment by Kevin Brancato at April 2, 2005 09:59 AM | Permalink

I started investing in Buffalo in November 04. The property prices to available rents is remarkable. There are a lot of properties in very poor condition that simply need to be demolished, areas of the city with astranomical crime and problems. These tend to be typical situations where a cities population has high unemployment and high tax structures for both individuals and companies alike.

There are some attempts at revitalization. The results remain to be seen, however it may be the case that by paying some attention to the region it will help lift the depression mentality a little.

Property is very cheap and with careful due diligence there are nice ones amongst them. vacancy is high, many management firms a little questionable tax's high. However the rents that can be charged on these cheap properties can make it a worthy venture. I can find deals where the property can be purchased for under $30K with less than $5K initial maintenance and get over $800 per month. At this ratio I dont care if the property value goes up or down as long as I can continue to get 60% occupance or above, so far much higher than that.

Comment by Richard at April 26, 2005 03:34 PM | Permalink

Can you suggest a good management firms Richard? Since you mentioned many of them questionable.

Comment by baysky at May 4, 2005 05:12 PM | Permalink

I moved to Miami from Buffalo in 1995. Although Buffalo is depressed and the taxes are outrageous, I would love to move back "home". Why? The people, the communities. I live in a affulent part of Miami, but it never will have the feel that Buffalo has. Sure, the winters can be very harsh (Blizzards of 77 and 85) however, the quality of life is much better in Buffalo than here in Miami. I would much rather raise my children in Buffalo than here in Miami where English is the second language and you feel like you are living in a foreign country, not in the United States!

Comment by CPerez at June 2, 2005 01:51 PM | Permalink

A Property manager I am currently dealing with in Buffalo is DASA Properties 716 822 6920. So Far they seem to be competant and professional. They dont want to manage properties is the bad parts of town, so as such are a good contact to judge if a property is in a bad area before you buy.

Comment by Richard at June 24, 2005 09:07 AM | Permalink

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