Truck and Barter

Quotes of the Day

“You have shown yourself to have no respect for life, liberty or any civilized value. You have shown yourself to be unworthy of your office, to be unworthy of the trust of civilized men and women,”… “You may succeed in silencing one man but the howl of protest from around the world, Mr. Putin, will reverberate in your ears for the rest of your life.”
- Alexander Litvinenko

"Meanwhile, as far as I know, in the medical report of British doctors, there is no indication that this was an unnatural death. There is none. That means, there is no reason for discussion of that kind.”
- President Putin

Informed advice for anyone contemplating homicide (podcast)
If you are really keen to murder a spouse, which chemical element would you choose? Arsenic is SO last year. Mercury is so - well, mercurial. Cambridge chemist John Emsley offers informed advice for anyone contemplating homicide who would like to show a little flair and impress the team from CSI. He’s the author of the book, The Elements of Murder: A History of Poison.

Related;
Kremlin denies poisoned spy claim
Anna Politkovskaya: Putin's Russia
Putin's 'rape joke' played down
Putin: Once A KGB Thug, Always A KGB Thug
London Riddle: A Russian Spy, a Lethal Dose
Litvinenko is no heroic defector
Alexander Litvinenko's Last Statement
Miscellaneous Links

Some Podcasts

Andrew Leigh interview about Milton Friedman (second item on the podcast)

Interpreting culture
The distinguished American anthropologist Clifford Geertz died last month. This week, we take a respectful but sceptical look at his work, its origins in philosophy and its consequences for philosophy. Savage Minds have more Clifford Geerz.

"Shifting aims, moving targets: on the anthropology of religion"- a lecture by Clifford Geertz

Postmodern Theory

Imps of the Mind Gone Awry: Obsessive Compulsive Disorder
Rituals, checking the stove, repetitive thoughts. Everyday patterns for all of us, but when they go awry, the impact of these imps of the mind is devastating and life-consuming. This week, a provocative theory with new, convincing science - could Obsessive Compulsive Disorder in some children be triggered by a common bout of strep throat? And, nipping the obsessions and compulsions in the bud - one parent's story, and a pilot project already changing the lives of young people plagued by OCD. More links here.

The State of Russia
Professor Christopher Read examines the current state of Russia and its changing political and economic position

Libertarian Paternalism Is Not an Oxymoron
Cass Sunstein, professor of Jurisprudence at the University of Chicago Law School

Lessons to Autocrats

“If you’ve free assembly, the probability that a leader will be in his or here position a year later- they’re not a democracy- the probability decreases by 86 percent if they make the mistake of allowing people to assemble. Of course they don’t make this mistake….

These guys have figured out, if I let these folks get together, if I let them be well-informed, if I let them know what the government is doing, I’m going to be in trouble. I can make them better off economically and so forth without doing that, and I can by that mechanism postpone the risk that I’m going to be kicked out.”

-Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, in this podcast interview.

Related;
Crackdown in the Maldives- special report from Channel 4 UK. The video of the news report can also be seen here.
Maldives opposition calls off protest rally after arrests
EU Expresses Concern About the Maldives
Government U-Turn On Media Freedom
Getting To Know Hill & Knowlton
National branding- A new sort of beauty contest;
“Nor can money spent on glitz and schmooze easily make up for dire political realities, such as a bad record on free speech, or an amnesiac approach to history. But that doesn't stop governments from trying. Russia is spending lavishly in the hope of boosting its international profile. Projects include trips for foreign journalists and politicians (one particularly cushy one was dubbed the “plane of shame”); another is an English-language television channel that aims to counteract the increasingly critical portrayal of the country abroad. A more successful initiative is an annual winter cultural festival in London's Trafalgar Square. That has cleverly combined two of the commonest popular perceptions of Russia: harsh winters and historic strength in art and music.”

First Deputy Chief of Russian Central Bank shot

Russia has yet to become a normal country;

“For many in Moscow, the murder of first deputy Central Bank chief Andrei Kozlov has brought back memories of the 1990s, when commercial disputes often ended in gunfights and car bombings.

"I don't think the situation has changed at all since then," said Viktor Ilyukhin, a member of the State Duma's Security Committee. "Organized crime, in association with big capital, can do whatever it wants, and the government is helpless."

Ilyukhin, formerly a senior prosecutor, said the country was in for a new wave of contract hits on government officials. "We are on the eve of a big brawl," he said.

Igor Pushkaryov, a member of the Federation Council's Budget Committee, said the killing was particularly unexpected given the country's current political and economic stability.

"It seemed that the lawlessness of the 1990s was a thing of the past, but what has happened sends us right back to those chaotic days," Pushkaryov told Interfax.”

Corruption declining in lot of transition countries, Except

World Bank has published a new report, “Anticorruption in Transition 3-Who is Succeeding … And Why?” which suggests that incidence of corruption has declined in quite a few of transition economies- Russia seems to be an exception;

“Most observers believe that corruption in Russia has worsened in recent years, although the exact magnitude of recent changes and the severity of the current situation are subjects of continued debate. The Executive Opinion Survey carried out annually by the World Economic Forum (2005) confirms a worsening in experts’ perceptions of the governance environment in Russia from 2004 to 2005. Most notable is a decline in perceptions of judicial independence and protection of property rights and an increase in the burden of organized crime on business. Surveys of small businesses undertaken by the Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR, 2005), a Russian think tank, indicate that corruption fell from 2001 to 2002 but then worsened again by 2004. Russian firms that participated in the BEEPS also showed a similar pattern—a dip in assessments of corruption as a problem for business from 1999 to 2002 followed by an increase through 2005. (Reported bribe frequency rose to 2002 and then stayed level.) However, the BEEPS firms—500 in 2002 and nearly 600 in 2005—also reported a decrease in the bribe tax from 1.4 percent of revenues in 2002 to 1.1 percent in 2005.The most negative picture of corruption in Russia was painted last year by another Russian think tank, Information Science for Democracy (INDEM, 2005), which reported that bribes had increased tenfold in the four years from 2001 to 2005.

These various results point in a similar direction—that corruption in Russia may have improved somewhat in the early 2000s but has grown as a problem in recent years.The decline in the bribe tax as measured by the BEEPS is not inconsistent with growth in corruption overall. The bribe tax measures the share of annual revenues paid in bribes, while the INDEM study reports on the aggregate dollar amount of bribes paid per firm per year. Given the rapid growth in the Russian economy in recent years, the declining bribe tax would still translate into a larger volume of bribery, and appreciation of the currency would increase the dollar-equivalent value even further. While the two sources may agree on the direction of change, however, the magnitude of the BEEPS and INDEM results do differ markedly. The BEEPS results imply an approximate increase in the volume of bribery of 50 percent from 2002 to 2005, while the INDEM study reports a staggering growth of nearly 900 percent from 2001–2005.

These worsening trends occurred despite a number of reforms undertaken by the Russian government to streamline public administration. For example, to ease the entry of new firms the government sponsored new legislation in February 2002 that cut the number of activities that required licensing and lowered the cost of obtaining licenses. Similarly, to improve the system of tax administration, the government lowered corporate tax rates and widened tax bases in 2001.Tax revenues increased and compliance clearly improved as a result (Ivanova, Keen, and Klemm, 2005).Yet the BEEPS results indicate that neither the easing of licensing rules nor reductions in tax rates have led to reductions in the frequency of bribery in these areas. Indeed, unofficial payments for business licenses are among the highest in Russia of any transition country, and Doing Business ranks Russia 143 worst out of 155 countries in “dealing with licenses.”

One explanation for the seeming failure of policy reforms to reduce corruption may be inconsistent or ineffective implementation of these reforms in practice. As Russia spans two continents and eleven time zones, it is not surprising that both the impacts of specific reforms and trends in corruption appear to vary significantly among regions. The CEFIR report (2005) claims that many business licenses “do not seem to be legitimate” even if they may have gotten cheaper. A second explanation focuses on deterioration in external oversight. Expanding restrictions on the media and some nongovernmental organizations in recent years may have reduced the ability of these groups to disseminate information about government activities and thereby help to hold public officials accountable. A vibrant and diversified civil society with ready access to information is an essential building block for accountability in government.

The results for Russia underscore the fact that policy reforms may be necessary but are not always sufficient to reduce corruption in and of themselves. Fundamental institutional strengthening to ensure policy implementation, build checks and balances, and promote accountability in government is also essential.”

- Box 3.1 Trends in corruption in Russia, p.38

Chart above, Figure 4.15 Clusters based on relative frequency of bribes in specific areas, p.71

For Comment; Why isn't there more demand for better governance in Russia? Is it all beacause of Putin? Or more of cultural thing?

Related;
Business Associations; Good for Development or Not
Moscow Gets Mortgaged

Where are they now- Mikhail Gorbachev

“In 1993, former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, founded Green Cross International (GCI). Green Cross promotes legal, ethical and behavioural norms that encourage basic changes in the value, actions and attitudes of government and private sector and civil society necessary to build a sustainable global community.

Phillip spoke to Mikhail Gorbachev at Earth Dialogues Brisbane 2006: A World Forum for Sustainable Development and Resource Management, held between 22-25 July as part of this year's Brisbane Festival.”

Listen to the podcast- from Radio National’s Late Line Live.

Music Piracy- Russian Version

According to this article;

“Russia is already the second-biggest source of pirate music, film and software in the world after China — costing U.S. companies nearly $1.8 billion last year, according to anti-piracy groups. The Web site www.allofmp3.com just adds to the dispute.

World music downloading leader iTunes charges a fixed 99 cents per song, but the Russian site offers tracks for a 10th of that price. Songs from the Red Hot Chili Peppers’ new double album, Stadium Arcadium, cost between 10 and 16 cents. The whole of Oral Fixation, Vol. 2, the latest album by Colombian pop star Shakira, can be had for just $1.40.”

Via Russia Blog

IMF worried about Russia?

The latest Article IV Consultation’s Preliminary Conclusions on Russia has been released;

“We are concerned that the current high levels of growth cannot be sustained without an acceleration in structural reforms. Analysis suggests that potential output growth is largely driven by productivity gains, with only small contributions from capital and labor, notwithstanding the recent acceleration in investment. These gains reflect the catch-up potential at this stage of economic development, where enterprises have significant scope for upgrading equipment and technologies while labor and capital are reallocating to faster growing sectors. While the mission agrees that there is considerable potential for further unleashing such productivity gains going forward, it is concerned that this cannot continue to be achieved on the scale of recent years, even in an environment with continued high oil prices, without a more determined push for reforms. The fact that Russia's GDP growth is among the lowest in the CIS, despite the strong terms of trade gains, is a reminder of underlying vulnerabilities. We believe that addressing these vulnerabilities by accelerating reforms, while high oil prices are still boosting the economy, should be a matter of priority.

“In view of this, we are concerned about the uneven progress in implementing structural reforms. In several important areas, technical preparations have advanced and the legislative and institutional framework have been strengthened. However, actual implementation appears to be somewhat slow, not least by comparison to the goals for public sector reforms that the government set for itself upon assuming office. Looking ahead, with a view to focusing on reforms that have the promise to quickly increase productivity growth, we believe that priority should be given to reforms of natural monopolies and other sectors where the state effectively remains in control, as well as to administrative and civil service reforms. We, therefore, welcome the decision to speed up the long-delayed reform of the electricity sector, including through increased support from the budget. On the other hand, the increased state ownership in the oil and gas sector raises in our view questions regarding the future dynamism of this sector, which has been a main source of growth until last year. Concerns in this regard are illustrated by the way in which private oil companies took advantage of the steady increase in energy prices from 1999 to increase investments, achieving a sharp reversal of the decade-long contraction in output, a development that stand in stark contrast to the virtual stagnation in the state-controlled gas sector during the same period.”

Related podcast from BBC- Russia's energy wasteland; The G8 summit of industrialised nations being hosted by Russia is likely to be more interesting for what it says about the West's growing reliance on Russia for its energy.

Russia- an improvement for corruption!

A survey from a Russian think-tank finds;

“The principal feature of the practical everyday corruption resides in the fact that the volume of the everyday corruption market (i.e. sum of the bribes to be paid by citizens within one year) has not undergone any specific alterations along with a relevant increase from US$ 2,8 billion to 3,0 billion respectively. Although such a stable position is the result of the two dynamic processes being interacted. The first process may be seen as some corruption risk increase (authorities' corruption pressure onto citizens) and corruption demand decrease (citizens' readiness to bribe). The same trend reveals in some decreased everyday corruption intensity (average number of bribes per one briber annually) under significant growth of the average bribe amount. The second process appears as this average bribe amount within everyday corruption realm can be absorbed totally by national consumer prices' growth.”

Related;
Ticketing corruption

Putin recalls kissing boy's belly

Russian energy giants bring global clout

Russia and the WTO (subscription required)

The G8 Summit Shutdown of St. Petersburg

From July 15th to July 17th, Vladimir Putin will host the G8 summit in the Constantine Palace in Strelnya, in the suburbs of St. Petersburg, Russia.

To make his premier guests more comfortable, his government has decided to close Pulkovo, the international airport, the port, all major roadways, and all the museums -- to the general public. According to radio reports, while the subway will still operate, there will be no above-ground transportation except for your feet. How nice -- the visiting dignitaries won't have to mix with the proles.

All this is gleaned from family and friends in Piter, as the St. Petersburg Times has mostly dropped the ball on this one, except for the business section:

I do not know many businesses that have gained from the G8 summit, but I know that many of them will suffer because of it. For example, companies that serve Russian tourists traveling aboard...

As city traffic comes to a standstill, ATM machines will run out of cash, gas stations of fuel and shops of goods. In contrast to the entrepreneurs, almost everything done by city officials is devoted to the G8 summit, especially road works, which seem to be going on everywhere. Certainly it’s time for many city streets to undergo repair, but is has nothing to do with the arrival of such distinguished guests. Are presidents bothered if Moskovsky Prospekt’s pavements are perfectly flat?

Actually many local shops serving the everyman carry little inventory, so quite a number of kiosks will simply shut down, since entrepreneurs cannot ship their goods to the stores, and their employees cannot easily get to work. I gather that the fancy stores will be open for the visiting dignitaries.

Of course the travel industry is mighty angry:

As a centralised economy, the state still wields great power in Russia. For the summit, the city's airport is closed to all flights; the railway to and from Moscow is closed for days before the event, the wonderful palaces are being closed without notice to tourists to allow the G8 leaders and their entourages to visit in peace and safety. Half the port is closed to river traffic.

And yet, tour groups have been booked to come to the city for months and even years ahead.

The Scotsman has an excellent, though incomplete, summary:

WHOLE sections of one of Europe's most beautiful cities cordoned off. More than 20,000 police, special forces and troops moving in to set up a security ring of steel. Ports closed and tourist cruise ships banned from a famous waterway, but millions spent on upgrading airports and roads to welcome powerful visitors while any protest is stifled.

All this of course will make it much harder for anti-globalists and other protesters to do much of anything -- not that you would expect mass demonstrations in a politically repressive country, though the anti-G8 folks know that you have to lie on your visa application if you want to get near the summit.

Kasparov versus Putin

As chairman of the "2008: Free Choice" Committee, Garry Kasparov hopes to mobilize the opposition and is planning a major opposition conference in Russia to coincide with the G8 summit. He’s interviewed by Fareed Zakaria to discuss the “real Russia”: the degradation of civil rights and press freedoms, corruption, and persecution of political dissidents. I salute the courage of this great sportsman.

Anna Politkovskaya- another courageous reporter from Russia

Related;

The Rise of the Corporate State in Russia- Andrei Illarionov, former Economic Adviser to President Vladimir Putin

Putin's Russia – 2005; A three part podcast series from BBC

Confiscating Property- Does it Work?

Russia’s Baby Bust

"I want to talk about the family, about the most acute problem facing our country today – the demographic problem.
The economic and social development issues our country faces today are closely interlinked to one simple question: who we are doing this all for? You know that our country’s population is declining by an average of almost 700,000 people a year. We have raised this issue on many occasions but have for the most part done very little to address it. Resolving this problem requires us to take the following steps.

First, we need to lower the death rate. Second, we need an effective migration policy. And third, we need to increase the birth rate."

-President Putin, 10 May 2006

The latest edition of the Foreign Exchange show is focused on Russia; it’s politics, Putin, demography and economic prospects.

Several incentives are being considered to increase the birth rate;

- increasing government subsidies for children up to 18 months of age to about $53 a month for a first child and about $107 for a second child. Mothers currently receive about $25 per month for a child up to 18 months old.
- maternity leaves as long as 18 months that would pay a mother at least 40 percent of her salary, and compensation for part of the average cost of day care, worth 20 percent of that cost for a first child, 50 percent for a second child and 70 percent for a third.
- For mothers of at least two children who opt not to return to work, an one-time subsidy of about $8,900 upon the birth of a second child and subsidies for adoptive parents as well.

According to this economist, there's another health issue that Russia should be worried about;

"By 2050, said Feshbach, Russia's current population of 144 million could fall to 101 million or as low as 77 million if factoring in the AIDS epidemic. If current trends continue, by 2020, 5-14 million Russians will be living with HIV and 250,000-650,000 will die from AIDS annually."

The average life expectancy of a Russian male has also dropped to just 59 years--compared with 74 in the United States.

Related Links;

Islam in Russia: Evolution in action?

Putin Addresses Shrinking Russia

Democracy and Growth Reconsidered: Why Economic Performance of New Democracies Is Not Encouraging, Vladimir Popov, Academy of the National Economy, Moscow (webcast)

Putin's Russia – 2005; podcasts from BBC, Part 1 and Part 2

A cool tool from Census Bureau which shows dynamic change of population pyramids across time.