John Murtha is missleading the public about the war
By Tino
The top Democrat on the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee, and decorated war veteran, John Murtha is demanding US withdraw from Iraq within 6 months.
Murtha voted for the war, but quickly turned defeatist. Already in midd 2004 he described the Iraq war as “unwinnable”. Certainly he is entitled to his view. What is unacceptable is giving the public a false impression about the millitaries situation in Iraq war by biased or incurrect data. He writes in USAToday:
“unemployment remains at 60% and insurgent incidents have increased from 150 to more than 700 per week. Average monthly death rates of U.S. servicemembers have grown since the Abu Ghraib prison scandal from one per day to almost four.”
Looking at center-left Brookings Iinstitutes Iraq Index we can see that most of Murthas statements about Iraq are grossly misleading.
Brookings has estimates of Iraqi unemployment at 27-40%, hardly 60%. Their data indicates a drop on unemployment from the earliest stated figure of 50-60% in June 2003, stabilizing at 27-40% in 2005.
GDP growth has been revised downward from previous estimates, but Iraq per capita GDP has increased from 518 $ in 2003 to 1051 $ in 2005, by amazing 103%. The increase from 2002 is 31% (it should be noted that Iraq had negative economic growth even before the invasion, although most of the fall 2002-2003 was caused by war). The projections are real GDP growth well above 10% the coming years. While Murtha is right that oil production is still below pre-war levels, oil revenue is higher, 23 billion last 12 months vs. 18 billion in 2002.
The economic situation is the exact opposite of the image he is paiting, progress, not decline. As simple examples the number of registered cars is doubled per-war figures (3.1 million vs. 1.5 million). Telephone subscriptions continue to rise, from pre-war 0.83 million to 4.59 million this august.
He is not an economist, and all of his credibility is in military matters. Yet the congressman's most misleading figures are about casualties and attacks. While the number of attacks indeed has increased somewhat, this is an irrelevant , since the type and efficiency of attacks has changed. A mortar attack or a coordinated suicide attack are not the same thing. It is much more relevant to look at the results of the attacks.
Murtha write that “Average monthly death rates of U.S. servicemembers have grown since the Abu Ghraib prison scandal from one per day to almost four.”
This is blatantly false, as the number of killed Americans fluctuates widely. In April it was 4.9 (Abu Gharib story broke in late April, with higher casualties before than after that month). In March 2004 it was 1.7 per day. In April it was 4.9. In June 2004 again 1.5. In 2005 we have 1.6 in September and 3.1 in October. So far this month the figure has been 2.66.
So when Murtha gives the impression the casualty rates accelerate he is not telling the truth. In fact death figures in 2005 are slightly lower than 2004, 2.3 per day compared to 2.45.. By comparing extremes he is giving the impression of increase, where we have seen the same average for two years.
Murtha refers to poll figures to give the impression that the US presence is causing terrorist attacks. He cites a recent poll where “45% believe attacks against Americans are justified”. (soon after the war the figure was 36%). But Murtha neglects to mention that polls taken in 2004 showed similar and higher figures, for example a 2004 Gallop poll where 51% stated that attacks were justified, and only 25% "never justified". Again the defeatist vision of ever worsening situation is in Murtha’s mind, not in reality.
An even stronger trend can be seen in polls measuring support for insurgent attacks on Iraqis. Unlike the figures above the same polling agencies is used. While in 2004 in Baghdad 9% supported “the use of violence [against Iraqis] towards political ends?” the figure was down to 4% in 2005. Support for attacks against Iraqi security forces went down from 6% to only 2%. Clearly the insurgency is loosing support by murdering civilian Iraqis, something Iraqis can understand but apparently not Murtha, who only blames US military presence.
I am sure Murtha is privately a brave and decent person. But that is irrelevant here. He is (either by being grossly misinformed himself or purposefully) giving a false image of an ever worsening military and political situation in Iraq. This hysterical image conveided to the public has no basis in reality.
We can respect Murthas long and brave service to his country, but not his misinformation about the military situation. The soldiers are fighting hard and winning the war in Iraq, while a veteran and leader is trying to cause Ameriacan defeat by distoring data.
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